Canadian Mortgage Delinquencies Surging?
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 16 ต.ค. 2024
- Bank of Canada holds rates, and says core inflation is still too high. Meanwhile, business insolvencies are surging and so too are mortgage delinquencies. However, mortgage delinquencies are coming off record lows. Meanwhile, the Vancouver housing market remains under supplied at the affordable price points.
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Super-low mortgage rates are why we're in the mess we are now; they let house prices get bid up to ridiculous levels.
For all those that saw the zero economy as good thing
Bank rate should never have gone below 2.5%
Agreed, that's why we are currently at a healthy level and ppl are fine. I think 5 percent is a good spot
not many people complained about the extremely low rates until the flip side comes!
@@chrislee6353It does appear like it's a good spot. I wonder if it were to stay at 5% if people would eventually start downsizing
Should woulda coulda.
@@Nonamenobodyman that is why libs called an early election during the pandemic. They wanted the election to happen when everyone was drunk on the rising equity in house prices, and they wanted the election to happen before the hangover made its way into food and service inflation. Inflation is like getting wasted, it's fun at first, then comes the hangover effects later.
The only reason mortgage delinquencies haven’t skyrocketed is because the banks are allowing negative amortization to take place. They are just delaying the inevitable.
and banks are dumping sub-prime mortgage backed securities
from CMHC onto the backs of taxpayers
via the Bank of Canada purchasing billions upon billions of that mortgage backed securities junk.
Exactly.
Mortgage delinquencies are worrying, especially with their potential impact on the real estate market. Wondering if it's affecting property values and if there are investment opportunities in this scenario.
Absolutely. As mortgage rates play a role in housing affordability, it could be an opportune time for strategic real estate investments.
Navigating investments amidst changing mortgage rates requires a well-informed approach.
I find myself lucky enough exposed to money management at an early age. Worked full time when I was 19, purchased first home at 28 fact forward timo I'm 57 now not laid off
My partner's been considering going the same route, could you share more info please on the advisor that guides you?
Nathan Travis Cook
We Are in Uncharted Territory and There is no Coming out of this without lots of Financial Casualties
a wine / vacation rental in the Okanagan currently as 66 listings as of today, half of them decrepit 70s homes in the $1m - 1.5m range.. Normally around this time there are about 10 listings.
I don't think inflation is going away and certainly not down to 2% anytime soon
The delinquency rate is still relatively low....for now
Is it really such a bad thing if house prices fall and inventory rises? It doesn’t have to be a 50% drop but a 20-25% haircut would work out long term. Sustained interest rates in the 5% range are doing their job and creating house price stability. People in Canada should look at other ways to invest their money. Invest in the S&P 500 and make over 10% a year long term. It’s fairly simple.
Mortgage rates are currently at an all time high since 2000(24 years) and based on statistics on inflation, we might see that number skyrocket further, a 30-year fixed rate was only 5% this time last year, so do I just keep waiting for a housing crash before buying or redirect my focus to the equity market
The stock market is no different, to maintain profit, you need to have some in-depth knowledge on the market
True, I mostly just buy and hold stocks, but my portfolio has been mostly in the red for quite awhile now. Unfortunately to be able to make good gains, you’ll need to be consistent and restructure your portfolio frequently.
in my opinion, it was much easier investing back in the 60s but it’s a lot trickier now, those making consistent profit in these times are professionals reason I’ve been using an advisor for the past 5 years to consistently build my portfolio in preparations for retirement.
my partner’s been considering going the same route, could you share more info please on the advisor that guides you.
My CFA ’Margaret Johnson Arndt’ , a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.
Thanks for the video! Not adding enough jobs and mostly public: 16% up in 5 years. Private are 5% up. Self employment -7%.
Which is kinda scary as a lot of 'delinquencies' may not get counted as they get the mortgage amortization period extended.
That is a delinquency in any other language but a kinder way of announcing it.
If you're looking for worse news is the US just announced a near 1/2 trillion budget. This *will* have an affect on fixed mortgages here in Canada... here we go !
what is the plan for the budget?
@@chriswhynder8311 The usual: defense, healthcare, social security etc.
Where the US spend their budget isn't that important as how they fund it.
The US is more than 34 trillion in debt and to fund things it needs to issue Government bonds.
In the last sale of these bonds they didn't sell as well as expected, and so the only way to attract buyers is to raise the rate of the bonds.
No big deal, it's Americas problem? ... Kinda, but Canada and the US economies are so closely related that when the US sneezes, Canada gets the cold.
America raising their rates, to attract enough buyers of their bonds, will have an affect on Canada too, it's called "imported inflation".. American dollar gets stronger then we all have to pay more in Canada.
Yeah, bring everybody to Canada, it’ll be great:)
The Fed calls the shots.
You are well aware of this.
I think a big factor in the low delinquency numbers, is the fact that people are allowed to have giant home equity lines of credit.
Feel bad for the Mom and Dad who gave the kids a healthy down payment on a house. Kiss that goodbye.
Golds at an all time high, it is the canary in the coal mine.
"the budget will balance itself" - that was code for inflation coming, protect your saving.
Carbon Tax again April 1st. Gas going up 17 cents. Diesel 21 cents. Inflation will not be going down. They won’t cut rate for at least 18 - 24 months due to this. Buckle up.
Vote for Conservtive will cut the government cost = reduce inflation
@@GanHaiRen A vote for Conservative is a Uniparty vote and will change nothing. Just another Globalist. Just look at the support for Ukraine. Every Member stood in Ovation for the SS Veteran. Time to wake up.
Dafuq are you smoking? Gas tax is going up from 14 to 18 cents which is 4 cents.
@@ivanandreevich8568 Lol. Take a picture of a station on March 31st and then April 1st. We will see.
@@GanHaiRen I’d imagine cutting health funding during a doctor and nurse shortage wouldn’t be the best idea. Nor cutting education funding during a teacher shortage. Maybe that’s just me though.
Canadians are struggling and things have barely got bad yet! Brace yourselves!
How? By stocking up on tinned goods in the bunker?
Well do what you can so examples put in the extra effort at work so you're more of an asset to your employer if you're an employee. Or have 6 months savings in cash on standby if needed for a rainy day, maybe lock into a fix rate mortgage if the deal is good, don't take lavish vacations so maybe road trips instead, lower your expenses as best you can, etc. Personally I'm not changing a thing so don't get me wrong but that's what I would do if I were to get ready for a down turn.
@@micrasystems Yep. Sensible budgeting is always a good idea. When inflation soars, I cut back on non-essentials. Of course, shelter is a different issue, especially for the young, but even just cooking for yourself instead of ordering take-out can be a big savings.
Great weekly updates. Trying to learn more about the economy and you provide great information along with the looney hour!
The poison is setting in! Great line :) Listings are starting to increase by me and nothing is moving! I see massive hair cuts coming later this year!
4 billion of mortgage payments comes for renewal in 2024 , on the new terms on higher interest rate conditions. That is an issue. Trudou doubled up Canadian national debt from 650 to 1.2 trilion in 2 years 20-22
During the first pandemic in a century, yes.
Congratulation for making out alive.Without the fly vacines you would'n have a chance. Dr.Charles Libier was arrested, J. Assange and others I wonder why ?
@@TT-fq7pl plandemic, by design, if you think they dropped rates to 0 and told you to buy whatever you need don't worry, no rate hikes anytime soon... you are the sucker.
All politicians recently got another pay raise
Does your analysis take into account that banks are extending mortgages? What would delinquencies be if they were not extending them. And if your analysis does not include mortgage extensions and the delinquency rate is going up even though mortgages are being extended is even worse
I see they don’t want to answer this question but will say mortgage delinquency is low lmfao
My great aunt has a house for sale on the burst properties on fairmile Road I believe that’s the proper address years ago she got offered $10 million for someone to buy it from Saudi Arabia now it’s listed for $6 million and no bites. I think that the Chinese government has instituted quite a bit of Capital controls and getting your money out of China, those days are gone and that’s gonna be a really huge effect on your high-end market and your Vancouver market. That is my opinion.
Foreign buyers were the worst that happened in Canada.
I also think we are at the tail end of the Chinese money.
There has been to much attention drawn to it lately.
False documents and what not.
I just watched a CTV clip....some economists said we're not in a recession 😂
All the data is "bullshit!" Look and talk to people various business owners they will tell you what's REAL!!!
yup.
the CPI has been a total lie since 2000 and especially since 2008.
the lieing kicked into over-drive post-Covid.
He presents himself as genuinely troubled by the challenges Canadian millennials face when trying to enter the real estate market. Yet, his real line of work is in property investment, specifically using the “BRRRR” method (Buy, Rehab, Rent, Refinance, Repeat) to generate profit. If someone were to be swayed by his content, which often incites fear of missing out and disseminates misinformation, it would unfortunately reflect a lapse in critical thinking.
Also, outside population growth, many are being laid off or jobs are going out of canada. All the numbers from any levels of the government shouldn't be taken any level of seriousness given what has been proven now over the last several years.
I feel like the education sound debt is missing. Having a 800 or million dollar mortgage puts insane stress on your cash flow
Depends on your household income
Agreed. People don't realise the financial and psychological impact of having large portions of their cashflow allocated towards fixed costs such as a mortgage for 2+ decades of their lives
people will argue that the insolvencies are a fraction of overall mortgages in the country but the fact remains that they are increasing. Couple that with my belief that the BoC will not have any rate cuts in 2024 and I expect any spring housing market bounce will be short lived.
The data completely IGNORES the currently still ~450,000 Canadian Mortgages Negatively Amortizing increasing Loan Balances on fixed payment 'accommodations'(OSFI sanctioned LOL) .... some not even covering 'pie in the sky' Loan Interest calculations still being fudged as PROFITS Canadian Big Bank earnings reports ! ROFLMAO !
I think you are right. I think flat market, similar to last year
the rate cuts are coming, the rate cuts are coming the most papular demand from the side of big risk takers even materialized there will be little or no any impact on real estate prices. So normal rates 5 percent are necessary in the broader interest of the nation.
You’re going to see a lot of restaurants Going bankrupt in the near future
Already are
@@ILOVESTEAK10 imagine how many people scam the system and just opened up a business to collect the cerb only to go bankrupt after on purpose
All it takes Is one over leveraged bag
Holder to set a new price discovery for an entire neighbourhood.
Doesn’t take much, then it speeds up.
Elections have consequences. Debt has consequences
Very true.
The banks keeping these people in the game longer with the negative amortization will make it worse once it happens.
If it's everyone all at once,
look out!
Good research Steve.
Do The deliquincies include extend amortization by banks? Balance sheet recession?
Appreciate the insight/data re detached new listings v condo new listings.
Steve is right. I hear about a good quality one bed plus den often going into multiple offers in metro Vancouver because its entry level for couples that is affordable.
Are the jobs private sector jobs or govt jobs. I the US they differentiate, in canada we don't.
government job is not real job because private sector job that actually funding gov jobs😂
Said 12:26 the speculator
I bet it would be possible for the BOC to reduce rates significantly for non speculative home mortgages. All, not just new. This is based that the Canadian housing market as it stands represents in total 30 % + of our inflation since C-19. And why are the lumber prices so high as a year ago or so the mills were selling lumber at $400 per 1,000 board feet - the lowest I can remember in 15 years or so - perhaps even longer?
Population increase = demand increase = inflationary;
Jobs increase = money increase = inflationary.
Unemployment is a red herring here.
With worsening economic conditions, people renewing their mortgages at higher rates, and now, people potentially listing their homes once rate cuts come, it might likely cause the opposite effect to what many realtors are wishing. There won't be that many more buyers because Canadians are broke, but there might be a lot of people looking to dump their properties in hope it's their last chance to get a high price for it. It will be interesting to see if it backfires.
How can inflation decrease if the nominal immigration number far exceeds the already shortage in housing suuply and when the housing cost is the biggest contributor to high inflation? This doesn't seem possible.
The CPI trim is still over 2%. It removes all the volatile components such as housing and transportation.
There really is no way that inflation goes down while immigration numbers are so high.
Would be interesting to know what the losses are on the CMHC sub-prime mortgage garbage portfolio
that they dumped on taxpayers
with the Bank of Canada purchasing tens of billions of those mortgage backed securities.
Looks like a good scam where banks get to move mortgage defaults onto taxpayers on the way down
while the banks pocketed the profits all the way up.
If the BC government would free up the lands held by them up to 95% of the whole province for communities, villages, towns, cities, and Canadians to buy and build up. From existing communities to ranches and farms to families and friends wanting to buy land to build up new home fronts and communities in the vast and massively wide open regions all around BC.
This would also take the responsibility off the massive land base off the shoulders of the province and put over to the communities and home fronts as the initial front line.
Yes? No? Something else?
there are tons of BC lots and development properties coming up for sale, ironically the math doesn't play out to build these anymore
I got a better solution! Buy a plane ticket to Winnipeg and buy a brand new detached townhome for under 400k. Perfect for a family that makes under 100k a year.
$389,900Est. $2,304/mo
1308 Fernbank Avenue
Winnipeg, MB, R2V 5E4
3 Bed3 Bath1250 SqftTownhouse
@Observer168 lmao first problem is its Winnipeg. The second problem is its Manitoba. There is no comparison to BC. Completely different places.
@rp1891 Yes, and a lot of it goes to land cost. In addition to building costs with taxes, fees, and labor costs. The local governments are drunk off the taxes and fees they made off of real estate over the years. BC made over 2 billion in just land transfer fees. Literally doing nothing and making billions. It's a gravy train by design. It is time for a reset, but will need a government or group in power with the backbone and fiscal responsibility to be able to shore all up for the better for all.
Just remember - as long as you pay taxes on it, you never own it.
That’s why it’s affordable
I may be wrong, but I think June maybe a little early. I personally see October as of when the rate drops will begin to happen. Getting the timing right is a hard think to do, as politicans I believe can only delay the inevitable, I do not believe they can change it. They have tried in the past, but have as of yet not suceeded and may have only made the inevitable only worse.
Rent your home and go live in a tent. The government will look after you 😂
Never listen to agents about the future of a market.
Never listen to most agents. My agent made me tons of money
It's in Canada's best interest to not see interest rates below 4%. Debt, low productivity, and overpopulation are killing this country.
This has become a story of fiscal stimulus and policy more than anything. Mark Carney must be so happy.
Most people’s no 1 expense is taxes.🤔
I delinquent on my home insurance payment.I just cancel it do not need it anymore on their scheem calculated price and conditions.
Just thought it I would post some facts vs spin. Twice delinquencies shot up prior to the housing crashes. And they alway start off like this that rise exponentially. And this data you are looking at is 90 days old lolll😅
"Interest rates will remain low for a very long time"
There was a lot to unpack. Thanks for unpacking all of that Steve!
What was there to unpack?
@chrislee6353 don't ya watch Steve he opens his tickle trunk and starts unpacking come on.
Gold is going up.
The US is inflating their debt away 1 trillion every 90 days and accelerating, Canada’s along for the dollar devaluation ride 🤷🏻♂️ Hope you have some Gold because Canada doesn’t 😉
It's meant to stabilize
Oh no! What did go wrong? 😂😂😂
I see a lot of people who blame Trudeau or the Bank of Canada for their troubles. They whine and complain - and they live in fear. That’s a loser mentality. Meanwhile, successful and wealthy people ignore the negativity. Instead, they focus on learning, and working hard. They invest in themselves, their careers, and they buy assets. And they slowly grow their wealth - no matter what government is in power, or what the inflation rate is, or where interest rates are going.
Exactly! And they fail over and over again before they succeed
They are driven by a variety of different emotions(fear being one of them).
Investing based on emotion is a mistake.
Buying a single dwelling for you or your family is always smart if the numbers favor you.
As far as an investment goes it's just not smart right now.
So, you are alluding to don't blame any of Trudeau's housing policies which made housing unaffordable in Canada.
I believe policies should be introduced or should have been the policies to discourage investment in real estate wealth creation, specifically in flipping properties in a short period for exorbitant prifits. Introduce high capital gains tax when selling investment properties. Mortgage interest rates for investment properties should be higer than for properties who buy to live. This will discourage investing in real estate.
It's worth to look into how Singapore's National Housing Policies created affordable housing for the middle class. Singapore encourages investments into stocks and there's no capital gains tax when you make a profitnon your stock market portfolio.
People who think like you usually get swept up by the momentum of history. Everything you just mentioned is utterly contingent on a specific kind of political order.
@@rajkumarganeshan5072
Until people get past the fear of not every owning RE will never come down.
The investors recognize that fear and use it against you.
Doesn't matter about any govt rules, they only make it worse and increase our taxes to fund the programs they start.
I am one of those old boomers everyone hates.
I have no RE except my house.
We made our money by opening businesses.
Now people are too fast and think owning multiple properties is the only way to make money.
Once it stays flat for a few years people will take there money out and invest elsewhere, that's what happened in the 80s, and that's what will happen now.
Interest rates were too low for too long.
3 more years of 5% interest and wage growth will bring affordability back.
Regardless of who is the PM
I lost over $80k when everything started to tank. Not because I was in an exchange that went belly up. I was just stupid to hold and because that's what everyone said. I'm still responsible. It just taught me to be a better investor now that I understand more of what could go wrong. It took me over two years of being in the market, I'm really grateful I found one source to recover my money, at least $10k profits weekly. Thanks Patricia Annie Brooks
As a beginner what do I need to do? How can I invest, on which platform? If you know any please share. I'm new at this, please how can I reach her?
she's mostly on Instagrams, using the user name
fxannie19 💯 ..that's it
Most people are retiring this year and has nothing to show for. But I assure you it’s never late to get your financial life together again.. All thanks to Annie Brooks for I and my family
So many garbage houses in BC and people wanting (and paying) exuberant $$ for!! Absolute insanity.
Only way to fix this is condensed housing. Duplexes, townhouse, apartments. BC has huge lots on older homes.
All government jobs also
Bank rate is not a yo yo
Sunshine lolipops rainbows everywhere....
The deliquencies were low because the prices and payments were much lower, then people that purchased in 2021, and 2022 have to renew, you will notice a dip in the higher end home prices
I don't think the ppl with high end homes notice the dip. They save on property taxes though 😂
@@chrislee6353 depends on the size of mortgage relative to the house value, and payments which may go up for high LTV
Inflation will be in the mid to low 2s before going to 1 over the next few months
Come back to this comment in a few months
I guess that prediction is not based on current world events.
Supply chain issues will be worse in the coming months.
Ships being attacked and sunk in the red sea.
Panama canal drought issues.
Oversupply of oil is running out.
Entire Okanogan fruit and berry industry destroyed by cold weather.
Fed budget in May, we know it will be another deficit.
There is absolutely no scenario on the earth we live on that inflation will lower this year.
Lol
@@Stormshfter I agree that all of those risks are valid, but the consumer is weakening and base effect will kick in
We don’t need single family homes, but 1600-2500 sqf condo/flats on 5-7 story buildings. These would be perfect to raise a family in and would create nice dense low cost neighborhoods. This is what our country needs, this would be the best solution.
The BOC WILL be cutting rates any day now. Not to worry.
A bigger group that is buying that Steve didn't mention is the people with equity. The ones that chose not to get scared off by Steves click bait over the years. Now you are screwed if you don't have equity. Look at the headline ppl, wake up. Pumping delinquencies when it's only 10k of them. I really feel sorry for the ppl that don't own that need to filter out this negative click bait and get scared off from buying when they can
Yeah, it's the same as the people that eat up the bearish narrative on CNBC about a recession that never came, while the Nasdaq rips 50%. Better to be in the market than not. If a correction comes people need to be able to ride it out.
I do listen to the content but the titles/thumbnails/narratives can get pretty sensational.
It is an upward trend that is of note.
I have made many investments in my life and I have always based them on studying trends.
Over the last 10 years any statistic you hear is usually massaged to favor what you want to be perceived.
IMO.
The trend will continue upward and the Banks will try to mask it.
But your right, it's not that high yet.
@@Stormshfter definitely.
@@Stormshfter I see the m2 money supply is hitting all time highs. That’s the trend I see
Steve, single family homes are no longer attainable for 95% of 'single families'. You might as well be talking about Buckingham palace or Casa Loma. The sooner commentators realize this and that the Era of the Canadian SFH is over, the better we can start talking real.
What’s your point
Only in Vancouver and Toronto. Move to Alberta if you want affordable housing
@Observer168 for now. The water is rushing in to Alberta, and everything will look much the same as the GTA in a few years there.
@jtome84-91 it's not possible to restore affordability to SFHs nor should we try to. They are the country manors of the grandfathered-in elite. Let's talk more about family friendly condos, etc.
yes, then they will rush to Manitoba once Alberta gets expensive. It’s better to have the population more spread out instead of everyone concentrated in a few cities
Stay the same
Citizens r getting poorer and politicians r getting richer. That’s how our economy works in Canada
Housing is not a big part of the economy UNTIL this guy and blackface MADE IT A BIG PART of the economy
Create policies that make people in Van, TO & Mont rich via unrealistic/unsustainable housing appreciation and they keep you in power. Small provinces who are insolvent welfare cases fall in line to stay at the trough.
The rest of Canada can suck it as their economies, under attack in the case of AB/Sask, or in BCs case kept on a short leash if they keep playing ball, pay the price of economic degradation in terms of per capita GDP decline and rampant inflation/taxes.
Why aren’t people looking at Winnipeg before it gets expensive? Brand new detached town house for
$389,900Est. $2,304/mo
1308 Fernbank Avenue
Winnipeg, MB, R2V 5E4
3 Bed3 Bath1250 Sqft
Townhouse
Cold? Mosquitoes? Floods?
@@TT-fq7pl but very affordable! You can’t have everything can…
At least it’s affordable. You can’t have everything…
@@Observer168 You pay for your surroundings too.
@@TT-fq7pl what do you expect for something that’s 1/3 the price of something comparable in Vancouver