The primary purpose of mainstream news media is not to give you the right information all the time. The primary purpose is to sell advertisements while getting away with twisting truths ever so slightly to create "shock value" so they catch the "attention" of the wider uninformed audience.
Hi Vincent , I don’t know how can I express my appreciation for your time and efforts in educating the public in this critical time . Covid-19 will disappear sooner or later but your efforts will be remembered in the history of science
I read the UK variant story on the front page of my newspaper this morning. Thanks to being immunized by the wonderful TWIV vaccine I was able to fight off being misinformed quite easily. And this video is my booster shot. Thank you Dr. Racaniello and your brilliant colleagues and guests for bringing the voice of science and reason to counter the misinformation we are bombarded with daily.
I agree. But isn't it frustrating that we have idiots like Hancock shooting from the hip and driving the country into a frenzy when we need a cool head and measured language?
@@FarmerJohn85 I'm not so sure. I'd like to think he's competent but the hole he's in now is so deep any U turn is impossible without him possibly facing criminal charges. Easier just to plough on and hide behind the plea that it was what everyone else was doing?
@@FarmerJohn85 this whole "pandemic" is deliberate. Why do we have people, that are not doctors or scientists like Bill Gates and politicians telling us we can't get back to "normal" until we are all vaccinated? Then we have big tech companies censoring debate and treatments on CV19. Then we have people like Klaus Schwab talking about the Great Reset. If we don't stand up to this, a virus is going to be the least of our concerns. Can people not see this? What governments around the world are doing is not about keeping us safe from a virus.
The TV news over here in the UK started off with ~new strain~ but today they are using ~variant~....maybe someone in the newsroom watched the previous TWIV episode, where this was touched upon.
Most people will still be scared shirtless of the the term "new variant"...you can count on the bbc (british bullshite company) for that 😱 "Shitless" I typed...friggin auto-correct 💩
RNA viruses mutate constantly; there is no such thing as a virus but a populations of genetic variants ( strains ) - the mutations can consist of missense, neutral ( synonymous ), or inversions, deletions. etc. Mutations in RNA virus populations are a good thing since most tend to result in defective viruses ( attenuated ). If these mutated viruses infect most of the human population, they will acquire natural immunity; only a small fraction of the world population will be suffer severe viral induced disease. There are now hundreds of SARS CoV 2 variants; this is the main reason outbreaks tend to burn out. World politicians, medical officials, etc. delayed this natural process for politics and greed ( i.e. vaccine company profits and hospital profits ).
Very true with these new strains it's impossible for them to say these new strains travel or infect people quicker what lab results have they done and where is the data no need to panic or be scared this is a natural proccess in viral reproduction as some amino acids change due to mistakes sometimes through this proccess the virus could be weaker we don't know yet as lab results data and natural factors need to be taken into concideration I wish the news outlets would tell facts they got most of the population in panic let's look at these new strains in 28 days and see the results first best wishes from glasgow
@@wboyle9721 RNA viruses use an RNA polymers that has less efficient proof reading mutations tend to accumulate at a higher rate than small double stranded DNA viruses small pox. Look up Muller's ratchet and Eigen's Paradox.
I wish I could explain my research so clearly and logically. Excellent job on founder effect, superspreading events and importance of proper experiments to draw any conclusions.
I've been posting transcripts of TWiV episode #696 all over the place where the team respond to the letter from David regarding this. I'll just start linking to your video instead now. THANK YOU!!!!!! I'm tired of everyone panicking around me.
Good analysis. You can imagine a "moderate confidence" that during summer months with lots of people outside, soaking up lots of sunlight, the value of Ro would be "substantially" reduced.
Yes, adequate levels of vitamin D3 and lactoferrin is useful against many viruses. Heat and humidity also tend to deactivate ( attenuate ) viruses within 1 to 4 days on average. World maps show nations that had low levels of vitamin D3 had more severe cases and deaths from covid19 related diseases. Viruses rarely kill people directly, in the case of covid19 ( dry cough and common cold like symptoms ) the severe form of the disease is known as SARS. The deadly form of the disease is due to a strong innate immune reaction known as the cytokine storm ( Interleukin 6, Tumor Necrosis Factor alpha, and other pro-inflammatory chemokines and cytokines ). Scientists are now discovering the individuals that are susceptible to infection and having strong immunological reactions to viral structural components.
Boris (the UK's leader) had a political problem. Under pressure from his own party he promised a rule relaxation over Xmas. But infections were out of control and he needed to cancel this (and then some). So he waited 'til Parliament broke up for the holidays (and his supporters could no longer say anything) and hyped the new variant like crazy. This gave him a pretext to cancel Xmas and tighten all the rules. But it also scared the living daylights out of politicians around the world (including those in Europe who all hate Boris). So the UK is now effectively blockaded and we're panic buying and expecting to starve. Happy Holidays.
My husband asked me about this variant. I told him I was waiting to hear you discuss the data (if any) on TWiV. Thank you for posting this and keeping us informed.
The new variant makes a good scapegoat. Like it or not, we need for all practical purposes to cancel christmas. Better from a political angle than the government being forced to accept responsibility or blaming the people. It will be some time before we know if this variant is more transmissible. If it is and the government hadn't acted, they'd be in even deeper trouble than they already are.
It's not about saving lives or stopping the spread, it's about saving your political career, being the journalist that gets the scoop, being the scientist that writes a headline paper with dubious facts or the celeb that heard something once and has an opinion about it. The real people that need to be listened to are marginalised and given vox-pop moments on mainstream media, normally out of context. Not sure we deserve to make it through this after the shit show we have made of everything in the last 30 years.
The public having Christmas cancelled over a drummed up panic without the data to back it will have long term, dire consequences for the public being willing to listen to anything the government says on this subject ever again.
It isnt just about cancelling Christmas, its the reimposition of restrictions that a lot of us just got out of. In Ireland, for example, we had six weeks at "level 5" restrictions that the government said would bring the case numbers down to a few dozen per day. What actually happened is we ended up with about 10x that figure per day after the six weeks. In the few weeks since then the virus has come back to up to where it was anyway. The government is blaming nameless and faceless people for flaunting restrictions for its failure, and of course the "new strain" which as Professor Racaniello points out is not a new strain. The fact is their projections were wrong. This virus spreads as easily as a cold it would seem and this is the time of year for that. They keep looking back at the collapse of cases in ~May and thinking they can achieve that in the winter but they clearly cannot. Its a good thing then that deaths are down 95% since earlier in the year but the governments own admission. In fact the hospital system is not under as much strain as it was this time last year before the pandemic. There are no excess deaths this season, the profile of deaths is typical for seasonal illness. ICU occupancy is not out of control it lingers between 25-35 and has for months now despite the case numbers. Yet we are now in full panic mode again, reentering level 5 from Xmas Eve and our deputy PM has given a range of restrictions of between 8 weeks and SIX MONTHS. This is beyond absurd and based on flawed modelling from the start. They think because they can imagine exponential growth and plot it on a graph that it will happen that way in the real world and have been wrong from the start. I'm not saying everything should be as it was a year ago but these "kill a fly with a bazooka" measures are making this worse.
I knew you would want to correct the misinformation coming out this weekend...thanks for setting the record straight, as usual. Looking forwatd to your next TWIV
The British government had zero interest in announcing a new strain. They see their frontiers closed, right in the worse part of the Brexit. They will even experience lack of some basic products, life some fruits. If the British government announce a more aggressive strain, we can be sure that this is a more aggressive strain.
@@originalkk882 Yes, now they can blame on the new strain, instead of their own mistakes, for the high prevalence they are suffering. But all Western governments are blaming "the people" all the time, while they are doing almost nothing to stop the pandemic. Only China did the right thing and stopped the economy and used the technology properly. I mean, there is no need to worsen the situation of the country just to hide their own mistakes.
They took the Spike protein from the SARS-COV-2 virus and added it to a virus that infects mice, with the N501Y mutation, it infected mouse cells 2x as fast. This is mentioned in the paper but is not discussed in this video. Maybe he read an earlier draft before the results of this experiment were completed. Also no mention of the Del 70 / Delta 69 deletion that gives a false negative for the Spike gene on RT-PCR tests, which illustrates its immune evading properties, or the sister paper that talked about the deletion appearing in a patient treated with convalescent plasma, who died after the deletion appeared and circumvented convalescent (antibody) plasma treatment.
@@Diamonddavej Please, give us the references to the studies / papers you are referring to. If possible by any chance ! I'd be grateful if you could provide references or links to the articles with this information you cited...
@@toreschanke4086 Here's a paper where they investigated the effects of the N501Y mutation on infectivity in mouse cells... Gu, H., Chen, Q., Yang, G., He, L., Fan, H., Deng, Y.Q., Wang, Y., Teng, Y., Zhao, Z., Cui, Y. and Li, Y., 2020. Adaptation of SARS-CoV-2 in BALB/c mice for testing vaccine efficacy. Science, 369(6511), pp.1603-1607.
Wish this would be explained on the news... these headlines really generate some hysteria despite how meaningless it truly is.... Thanks for elaborating on this
And this happens against the background of trying to persuade denailists that mitigation polices aren't overblown panic. Now we suddenly have what may be a case study in overblown panic with possibly serious repercussions.
The flip-side is unwarranted panics could result in fewer people listening in the long-term. And now we have a cottage industry of public-health denialism ready to take up any blunder and put a spotlight on it for eternity.
Thanks for sharing this and toning down the media hype! I have two questions/comments: 1) Viral load is frequently measured by quantitative PCR, this is the most common way it's measured for HIV. Of course it does not measure infectious virus, but it is a reasonable correlate of the amount of virus replicating in the body. As you mentioned, measuring viral shedding is practically challenging and almost impossible for routine diagnostics, what would you suggest as be a better way than PCR? 2) As a virologist and epidemiologist, I know epidemiological data cannot prove a biological property, however transmissibility IS an epidemiologic concept. Viral stability, replicative capacity, immunogenicity... these are viral properties but transmissibility is an epidemiologic property that results from a combination of biological, behavioral, and environmental factors. I don't think it's out of line for epidemiologists to examine correlations between biological factors and numbers of cases, in fact that's their job. However, I totally agree the media hype is exaggerated and there are most definitely confounding factors involved in the increases observed.
I like your podcast audio, but I do fall behind in keeping up with the volume of hours. This video was perfect for youtube, in length and focus. I can't express enough how much I enjoyed seeing this come across my youtube feed.
@simon temple yes, the fact that politicians are making shitty decisions and then scientists are blamed for not knowing their job is another big part of the story.
Excellent video Vincent! Expert opinion, without the hype, comprehensive, not shying away from the details but clear enough and comprehensible to the lay person. Everynews and media outlet needs to watch your videos on the basic virology of SarsCoV2. I hope you do more videos like this. Thanks very much!
The british and South African variants are independently derived but have a key amino acid substitution in the same place and seem to be both spreading faster than the general disease so it's likely that these new variants are actually more contagious strains. Founder effects (randomness in small populations) can explain individual instances of a new variants expanding faster at the begining of a surge but multiple independent loci and continued DIFFERENTIAL expansion over time make random advantages less likely. Additionally this mutation is in a location, the spike binding domain, that is less likely to produce a neutral effect. It will tend to either be negative and will expand more slowly or die out, or rarely be positive and expand more rapidly. My best guess is that S:N501Y (asparigine to tyrosine in position 501 of the spike protein), is an advantageous mutation to contagion. Since its operating on the spike protein there is a chance it's more virulent also since the infection may spread more rapidly within the individual not just between individuals. This is one of (many) reasons why flattening the curve was desirable. As I mentioned back in March. They larger the population of viruses the faster they evolve. I don't think it is likely that this variant will make the vaccine ineffective but they should start including it in future batches of vaccine. This should be easy to do if idiots don't stand in the way. Nevertheless, we do run the danger of creating vaccine resistant strains if we roll the vaccine out slowly when the viral population is high. The large a population is, the faster it evolves. The weaker selective forces like low levels of vaccination, antiviral or other reproductive barriers are also more likely to lead to the evolution of resistance.
@Jeff Jeff that's almost true, founder effects are any time there's a bias in a large population due to random events when the population was small, so during the time when covid levels were low in the UK, there could have been a mutation that got randomly spread by luck and then grew rapidly during the expansion phase. This can make the genetic constitution of the population appear like it's undergone natural selection. Super spreader events can amplify this randomness.
I’m literally at the epicentre of this mutation. In my borough we currently have 1,128 cases per 100,000 and 400+ deaths for a population of around 260,000. We’ve had a super spreader event at work where 11 staff member became infected about 4 weeks ago. Two people I know have now been hospitalised and during the first wave in April four of my colleagues lost a household member after taking the infection home. Social distancing is a joke and only around 50% of people wear masks on public transport. It’s pretty rough here...😢😢😢
God bless Mr. Art. People are not abiding with the idea of mask in the town where I live (Miami, FL). It is truly sad. I work in a county park, and its every man for themselves. You take care. Cheers!
That is interesting, I’m in a teir2 area Northampton right next to teir 4 Bedfordshire and Bucks and almost 100% of people are wearing masks on public transport and in supermarkets, smaller shops the petite gangsters wear them with their noses hanging out of course., but still, it is some evidence all be is naturalistic observational evidence that better mitigation correlates to lower transmission.
This was an absolutely fantastic video. I learned a hell of a lot (though I need to watch it again to catch things I didn't quite understand, and to do side googling to expand on things you mentioned in passing). You are an island of rationality in a sea of alarmist headlines. Subscribed!
Excellent, well-reasoned video thank you, but my feeling is that something has changed, which is not readily explained by changes in social distancing etc. Where I live in the East of England in Suffolk, we have had consistently low rates of infection. Now, suddenly, after ten months, we have almost the highest rate of new infections daily, second only to London and Wales. This increase seems to have spread rapidly up from London, through Essex, despite the fact that those places have been in tier 3 with tighter restrictions. I see no reason for a sudden superspreader event or enhanced founder effect here now, and many other areas of the UK that had high rates have not seen this acceleration, suggesting that this is not down to the Christmas effect, or coming out of lockdowns. While you are right to say that, strictly, epidemiology cannot PROVE the variant confers greater infectivity, association along with a viable mechanism (which we have in the spike protein changes) is always much more significant than just association, and we do not need PROOF in order to apply the precautionary principle.
Remember some months ago when we were all learning about how exponential increases behave? That's one thing that can very easily give the impression of "sudden change", when it isn't. A few others are: - who is tested, and on what indications - related to the above: very diligently tracking & tracing and testing loads of asymptomatics - when the epidemic spreads in a vulnerable population (that's when you see hospitalisations hit the roof) Then you have the things that might actually contribute quite a lot to spread: - Distancing rules that don't make sense to people, and therefore lessen the overall adherence - Natural seasonal variability in behaviour* - especially in conjunction with stupid rules And on top of this all you of course have how things are reported. * One thing I really appreciate here in Finland is that even while the official recommendation is stay at home, don't travel, don't meet others, many many experts and officials are open to giving useful advice: ventilate well, limit time with the most frail, don't sing, go get tested at the slightest suspicion, use masks especially in confined small spaces (cars), try to mitigate very dry room air, etc.
@@Asptuber Non of the things you list seem to me to explain why I am seeing a big change now, after 10 months of stability, or why it is occurring here and not elsewhere. If it is down to vulnerability in the population, why am I also seeing the same rise in London which has seen very high rates before and so might be expected to have exhausted it's supply of vulnerable spreaders?
@@lindosland It is so very very difficult to know what it is one sees. Especially if one follows media: trust me, I have in periods since March tried to intensely follow media in 3 countries (Finland, Sweden and Estonia) and then tried to correlate what gets space in media with what the numbers/trends show - it seems completely random. The thresholds for media attention shifts depending on so many factors. I happen to be in a region with very very few cases comparatively in Europe, but in the city most affected in my country (Helsinki). Following our numbers very closely it is amazing how what feels like a surge comes out of no where. Everything alright, 2wk incidence slowly creeping around 30-70/100 000 and then BAM! Suddenly it is more than doubled in 10 days. And then again (almost). And then people in ICU quadruple between Friday and Monday. I was keeping close tabs on the numbers (incidence, and also % pos testing), so I saw this exponential thing starting already when the numbers were low. I was still surprised at how fast it was. * I can imagine that if this happened but on a larger scale (not 2wk 100k incidence from 40 to 200, but from 100 to 800) it would very easily feel like there must be something new in play. Vulnerability of the population is very tricky. Because we sort of want to think in terms we are familiar with from flu, both susceptibility and transmission patterns. Neither of which is applicable. I don't think the susceptibility is lessened really anywhere in Europe outside of maybe villages in Bergamo region (might exist similar other places too that we don't hear about, thinking villages in Moldova or Ukraine). You never have this situation with flu. I don't think there's a densely populated area anywhere where the majority of the population isn't still susceptible. Either to illness, or to acting as an asymptomatic vector. [Soapbox] The main reason "herd immunity" is a criminally stupid idea is not the death toll from the virus (though that's nasty too). It is that we just aren't set up for caring for everyone getting sick at once. And that is what would happen. Even people who really should know better don't get this: this is not like flu. We don't have a large chunk of the population that has partial immunity. * Our numbers here are now trending downward. Even the % positive tests - I really feared when those started going above 4%, but last week it finally dipped below 3% again. We don't have a lock down. We never had, but people did start to change how they act somewhere around beginning of December. It helps to be an asocial nation where personal space is second nature I guess. I'm probably not the only one who likes that I can now put my bag on the seat beside me on the bus or tram with a clear conscience.
@@Asptuber Thanks, you make many valid points, but I don't think we have an answer. Suffolk is not heavily populated. I question what you say about herd immunity, because there is I believe some evidence that prior exposure to other viruses confers some immunity. Also, vitamin D status, and genetic factors can render a section of the community resistant to the virus, and we don't know on what scale. It also seems clear to me that every population is stratified; countryside dwellers have limited contact which must greatly reduce the R number for them compared to others who mix a lot and travel. Thus a fraction of a community can be considered immune in terms of the big picture (though not if they happen to meet a spreader) - vaccinating them will have little effect on numbers. I just stay in and stay safe for now, while pondering this stuff, and very much being sceptical of the media !
" epidemiology cannot PROVE the variant confers greater infectivity" Oh really. jvi.asm.org/content/94/7/e00127-20 "Alarmingly, our data predict that a single N501T mutation (corresponding to the S487T mutation in SARS-CoV) may significantly enhance the binding affinity between 2019-nCoV RBD and human ACE2." "2019-nCoV evolution in patients should be closely monitored for the emergence of novel mutations at the 501 position" Higher binding seen on N501Y. You can also note the binding changes are positive for N439K and Y453F, mutations that contain the deletions at position 69/70, a feature of the b.1.1.7 strain: jbloomlab.github.io/SARS-CoV-2-RBD_DMS/ You can also find many pre-prints highlighting the exact concerns raised by the b.1.1.7 strains here: www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.14.422555v3 archive.is/1mw9t But scientists on youtube don't get paid or keep their channels if they address the actual research being done SARS-CoV-2. That's why they call it covid, like they were told to.
Yay, capitalism! When the news are ruled by the laws of profit you get populist crap, anything that's scary and little segments about a special puppy - isn't it adorable??? You get anything, except real news.
@@barbarusbloodshed6347 It has to do with political freedom, not the economic system. Thus you implicitly favour state control of the news, meaning China (another capitalist country) beckons you. When you get there, please start blogging so we can read about what's going on. Oh, wait, that's right: they censor blogs. Isn't it adorable? But at least you'll be happy there, having at last freed yourself from the West.
@@dixonpinfold2582 1. China is a communist country, despite all their commercial trade. 2. Just because someone can see the dubious effects of an under-regulated free market, doesn't mean they are advocating for communism or some other country's flavour of regulation, they are only commenting on precisely what they commenting on. Your statement is "black and white thinking". 3. Just because there are problems with one system, pointing to a worse system doesn't absolve the first system. That is called "whataboutism".
@@PinataOblongata 1. China has more billionaires than any other country. This you call communism! 2. It was the commenter's assertion that a free market causes shoddy journalism, not mine. Let him, or you, defend it; my aim was to contradict it, and correct it. In order to do so, I asserted political freedom is the (primary) origin of shoddy journalism and that, therefore, a decrease of political freedom would improve things. This is a rhetorical device intended to reveal a weakness in his argument, not a sincere suggestion. It is not black-and-white or all-or-nothing thinking, which is a refusal to assign gradations of value (where they demonstrably or axiomatically exist). 3. I have no desire to deny the problems brought about by political freedom. That _would be_ black-and-white thinking. I could talk about them all day long. But holding up prioritization of freedom as the best model despite its problems necessarily entails criticism of other models, since I will hardly bother to compare it to the system in paradise, whatever that might be. You can call this 'whataboutism' till the end of time if you like. I don't care. I call it making a comparison of extant choices. It is certainly admirable, at any rate, that you apply yourself to the study of logical fallacies. Thanks for your reply.
Hi Vincent. I like your work, but this is something to be concerned about. 1.5x more transmissible, similar substitutions occurring in both the UK and SA variances. Though it is certainly true that viruses mutate all of the time, SARS-CoV-2 mutates approx 2x/month. The new UK variance seems to have 17 changes, and came out of nowhere. In addition, this particular RNA virus can repair some of its mutations, although most mutations in the spike protein which survive appear to be possibly beneficial for the virus.
Wow! Absolutely brilliantly explained in a succinct, level-headed and non-patronising way. Thank you so much not only for the reassurances (and there were many) but also for the excellent clarity of your communication. My first time watching one of your videos - I will unquestionably watch many more!
I'm not trained in this field, but this sounds like honest analysis. I think it's the fact that nothing is stated with certainty. My science and engineering background has trained me to listen for probabilities and mistrust when people express things with absolute certainty. Some folks are just here to sell a political narrative, but the actual experts in the field are just trying to understand the truth. I get the same feeling from Fauci.
@@Falcrist I was just trying to clarify your last sentence . Is Fauci non biased or without political affiliation? He certainly cherry picks information which isn't a good sign. I see a lot vaccine associated parties trying to appear even handed when the momentum is going towards their desired outcome. Very clever political side step feigning a left for a right hook pacifier.
@@rickknight3823 The answer to your question is that Fauci is without political affiliation, and has worked for both democratic administrations and republican administrations since the 80s. Listening to him contradict the current admin has made it quite clear that he interested in communicating honest analysis rather than pushing agenda. It's easy to cast aspersions. Be more specific in your critique.
Thank you Vincent for the overdue perspective on the variant. I've been hammering home to people all week: increased prevalence of a marker is not evidence for increased spread of a variant caused by biological change in the virus. Even if the increased prevalence was relevant to biology, I think there is a further problem with the origin of the idea for increased transmissibility in the way the prevalence of the variant has been determined - it does not seem to be based on proper sampling with sequencing but rather on a subtle change in the PCR profiles in the testing programme. Namely, three targets are looked at in the PCR test in the UK, one of these targets spike sequences. The PCR signal using the spike primers is, apparently, slightly attenuated (higher Ct) with the variant compared to the signals for the other two targets. This observation appears to be the method used to determine the prevalence of the variant - scoring PCR tests that appear to have the subtly altered Ct ratios between the spike and other targets. Without validation against large numbers of sequenced isolates, I suspect this means of counting occurrences of the new variant is unlikely to be reliable. In other words, the evidence for the proportion of infections being due to the variant may be itself weak.
I know i really like twiv and I understand that you can’t take correlation as causation until proper tests are done - but that doesn’t mean the default position that there is no connection as we just don’t know yet either way. I live in London - through March onwards they never opened anything that would be a ‘super-spreader’ event in the whole of the UK, no concerts, no stadiums, we don’t have thanksgiving Here, etc etc so he can’t presume this as the alternative reason to the sharp rise in cases despite being in tier 3 lockdown. What there wasn’t good control of throughout though was travel, testing and tracing properly, etc. But on a day to day basis I see most Londoners wearing masks if In stores, etc. And there was no major change in the last few weeks during the recent sharp rise of cases so there is something happening, posibnly the other strain, possibly something else, possibly multiple factors!
Thank you, Vincent. I've shared this with my friends here in the UK but I have a sneaky feeling that not many will believe it. The spectre of the new variant is already well and truly out of the bag, thanks to government and media.
I really appreciate these mini lectures you have prepared on covid topics. I would have like this better if you had discussed the actual studies that were used to suggest the correlation between R values and the variant, changes in Ct values and viral load. I accept that this evidence is circumstantial but it is hard to determine its value (circumstantial is still useful) without seeing the actual study. I suspect your evaluation is correct but I am not comfortable accepting it without a review of the actual evidence. Is it possible to provide a link? It was wonderful the way you showed the locations of the changes in the virus structure. I have been watching mutations since the start of this crisis and knew they were not germane to covid infection, but I really liked the way you put it all together. Please keep teaching. I love it.
One genuinely interesting thing though that I just learned: P681H! This is a mutation affecting the Proline ahead of the RRAR furin site. What that means re: infectiousness etc...? Dunno! But that is genuinely interesting (to me at least).
@@juancarloslopez-corbalan Furins are ancestrally involved in the innate immune response. For instance, we just put out a preprint on a furin-cleaved polypeptide of fruit flies that encodes antifungals produced upon infection: www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.23.394148v2 Furin cleavage is best known to act at RXRR or RXKR polybasic sites. The Sars-CoV2 site is RRAR, whereas MERS-CoV has RXVR if I recall correctly... so there are certainly alternate motifs that are likely cleaved, but these are less understood. Good review by Braun and Sauter (2019) on the whole furin-like family of humans and their cleavage: www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6682551/ Furins act probably at the cell membrane or perhaps during trafficking to the cell membrane, and also perhaps at the golgi. Actually kind of unclear, and maybe all three are true. There are a number of cell entry dynamics driven by furin enzymes, including Sars2, HPV, and even anthrax toxin (ref below) gets cleaved by furin upon cell entry. I think we're at the point to know "yes, this is important." But I don't think we're at a point where we can look at a furin site (and surrounding residues) and predict much. I know it was mentioned on TWIV way back that the Proline residue ahead of the furin site is known to interfere with enzyme cleavage efficiency; I think it sticks out in a way that gets in the way of the enzyme a bit. www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6347675/
You, Dr John Campbell, & my personal Dr have all said the same. I’m glad for Doctor’s like you who just tell it like it is and don’t add to panic, yet if something is bad you also explain that.
ECDC also mentions that S-gene mutation in this variant may impact diagnostic accuracy "The UK reports that the deletion 69-70 in the spike protein of the variant causes a negative result from S-gene RT-PCR assays applied in some laboratories in the UK". Prof. VR, could U comment on this?
"This double deletion has been detected in multiple unrelated lineages, including the recent ‘Cluster 79 5’ mink related strain in the North Jutland region of Denmark." Source: www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.05.20241927v2.full.pdf If you have good assays then one mutation is not a problem, because it relies on different fragments. So if your assays does not work due to one commonly happen mutation, I would say you need to fix your assays, otherwise this testing may do more harm than good...
We are reminded here why the hiring policy of The Economist is so sound: They recruit science correspondents who are well-trained and learned in science and who can also write, rather than good writers with a knack for learning a little science on the fly. If more media outlets adopted it, Prof. Racaniello would have fewer of these informational fires to put out.
Well the Economist is far from in the clear regarding any bias. They are part owned by the infamous Rothschild's.. Who happen to have a long history of meddling with our societiy..... should one feel compelled to dig a little... They of course have a vested interest in information being presented in a particular way to suit any number of agendas. Same with the evening standard now employing ex Tory chancellor George Osborne as chief editor.. Hmmm 🤔
@@rickknight3823 As I understand it The Economist's main shareholder is the scion of the Agnellis, who control Fiat. It should be easy to check. Anyway, I never said they have no bias. Everyone has bias, it's all a matter of how you handle it. I just said they have a sensible way of hiring their stooges. (Just so you're aware of it, any reference to the Rothschilds that makes them out to be infamous, evil, or whatever makes anyone sound like a hopeless crank. So at least be sure to get your facts straight, assuming you believe the Rothschilds allow the existence of such things as facts.)
@@dixonpinfold2582 Yes that's correct, the owners of Fiat are the main shareholders in the Economist. The irony of our "fiat" currency in relation to the Rothschilds is rather fitting! Have you ever dug into their history at all? Yes, all that conspiracy theorist labelling comes hand in hand with their name. Still, doesn't detract from their past associations. Have you read "The Creature from Jekyll Island"?
@@rickknight3823 No and no. There may well be something to all the insinuations about them but I have other fish to fry. Eventually, I suppose; for now I'll take half a minute and google Jekyll. Had to smile at your 'fiat' punning. Good one. (And more and more people are going to learn that word, aren't they? I urge you not to be without metals, cryptocurrency, or _something_ other than fiat money for your savings. It's looking way shaky.) ;) Edit: Ok, it's about the Fed. Good, I'll throw another 10 or 20 minutes at it and see what I think. Thanks. One last edit: Two minutes sufficed. I can't handle these guys who say it's all lies and all carefully hidden, but I got to the bottom of it unassisted and without that much effort. But, again, thanks.
@@dixonpinfold2582 (Apologies this went off on a bit of a tangent) Jolly good! Although I found that patience pays off with the style it's written in. For those of us wanting a non dramatised, factually based explanation, it does develop into that. It's a hefty 600 page read - large leaf book, not sure if a few minutes will do it justice.. I appreciate your advice for getting into metals etc. I've been on this "red pill" journey quite a number of years now. I saw some sort crisis majorly affecting the economy a few years ago. The sheer size of Americas now $28 trillion debt with just $4 trillion equity in the form of student loans influenced that slightly.... I bought into crypto back in 2012, amongst other Investments after randomly coming across it as payment option on a site signing it's praises. Remember, it's all about the blockchain/ decentralised currency. The whole point is to avoid the inevitable central/private banking manipulation & control. The source of much human suffering these past few centuries. They are "apparently" trying to develop a digital currency at the Fed, without the decentralising element of blockchain. So same system, different paint job. Have you read anything on Klaus Shwarb at the World Economic forum on their glorious "Great Reset"? He has his sights on a Fourth industrial revolution, with an associated manifesto of sorts! What a dear thoughtful chap he is.. It's basically a technocratic version of Communism once you get into it. Essentially it's a bid for these controlling financial goliath's for full control - one world order. (Yes, I know how it sounds).. They are attempting to use Climate change to blame the common human and so have the excuse to enforce dictatorial powers over our natural freedoms. All softy softy... Slowly boiling the frog.. You may have heard of Agenda 21, the majority of countries signed up to this in the early 90s, probably not realising it's full implications. The emphasis is not on real environmental improvement, but on human subservience and private ruling establishment profit & hegemony. I saw a fantastic recent documentary on the farce of the renewable energy industry and most associated sectors . Since been removed from TH-cam. Michael Moore recently made a similar controversial doc this year called "Planet of the Humans". Exposing a lot the environmental industry hypocrisy. We are of course left in the dark as to the true cause of climate change, which affects the whole of our solar system... The natural cycles are completely down played. By all means improve air quality and environmental pollution, but climate change.... ,🤔🤦♂️ This coronavirus pantomime just acts as a segway to this ultimate goal. Enough of us can see through a lot of he nonsense pumped out by maintainstream media. What happened to boosting "both" our immune systems as a way to improve a nations health?! Vitamin D, C Zinc - beta glucans??
Thank you so much for sharing this information. You have provided such a beneficial service to alay the panic that has been growing since this mutation was first reported in news reports. It’s often about using accurate vocabulary.
Yeah, I really hope that people watching appreciate that Vincent on all of Microbe.tv does a huge amount of work. His clarity in this particular case makes me wish for more of same on TWiV, the gold standard for Covid-19 info.
Well, UK had 18,000 cases one week ago, today 40,000. The same pattern in South Africa. Check data on worldometers. Today, UK announced the finding of a new even more transmissible variant. More cases = more deaths 12 day after. UK officials take this very very very serious.
This is the most informative explanation that gives the details of the UK variant. Thanks. I’m gonna link to this when I respond to comments on youtube news videos. People may not understand everything here but hopefully they will see experts with awesome insight are not over reacting.
I hear what you are saying, but here is the problem with what you are saying: you say you have doubts, that there isn't conclusive evidence, but ... there is still a lot of evidence. one strain becoming 60% of all the variants in a population that has been getting infected by other strains continuously for six months now sure seems like a pretty decent indicator that there is something unusual about that variant. All of the other experiments may not be ideal, but they are indicative of a behavioral change. Doing the experiments you want to do to get to know it better would take a lot of time to get conclusive evidence. So what is the one thing a viral outbreak doesn't give you? A lot of time to get to know it better. The people responsible for fighting the virus and saving lives have to take the best evidence available to make decisions. Right now, they essentially have four pieces that say it is a problem, albeit weakly, and none saying that it isn't. What are the consequences of doing nothing until there is conclusive evidence evidence vs taking some further action to control the spread now? I mean, countries are cutting off travel to england... why the hell is there international travel right now anyway?! Not to be a dick about it, but you have the luxury of tutting it away because of imperfect research. They don't. They have a completely different standard they have to work with, and a little over reaction is a lot better than severe under reaction. If it makes people stay inside and stop spreading COVID (currently at about 5x our rate of vaccination...), bring on some over reaction. It makes me think of "What if Global Warming is a hoax, and we waste all that effort making a better world for nothing?"
Thank you for the video. and i wish our leaders would be more interested in this. we need better decisions then just locking everything down. because there is a physical limit to which extend that can be applied
The trouble with the government and Sage is that they are so scared of being blamed and as a result far too over cautious and panicky and we are paying the price of their incompetence.
I am British and I think that the hype is absolutely warranted. You need to look at the bigger picture. Our prime minister had given licence for people to travel and mix with family and friends for a period of FIVE DAYS over the Christmas period. However, Covid is now spreading in schools, university students have gone home for Christmas and the behaviour of members of the public has become increasingly gung-ho with Christmas excitement and optimistic news about the vaccines. In southern Britain there is now a rapid spread of the virus and increases in deaths, with hospitals looking set to be overwhelmed in January. It's okay for an American scientist to be pontificating in his office because the American government is doing zip to stop people dying, but British scientists are required to give information that enables our government to take action. I don't care if the hype has been exaggerated. The result is that many people have been obliged to cancel their plans to take stupid risks over Christmas and that is a very, very good thing.
The epidemiological data looks very compelling. The virology experiments are under way. Vincent was very scathing about another variant D614G and said there was no evidence that it was / is more transmissible. It is now the dominant strain in both USA and the UK. Founder effects can't be responsible for dominance on 2 continents! I like Vincent but like many scientists he is not willing to accept the conclusions from another scientific discipline. A kind of virology snobbery if you will. I strongly suspect he will need to eat his words and promote this from 'variant' to 'strain'. Hopefully this will lead him to be more tolerant / accepting of the skills of the statisticians, genomicists and epidemiologists.
@@drewetpa Yes, I detected a hint of snobbery when he was splitting hairs about terminology. The fact is that UK scientists are doing 45% of the world's genome work on this virus so our scientists have FACTS and America's don't. The entire government machinery in the US has been trashed by the orange baby, so public health information is lacking or wrong or ignored. The world used to rely on the brains of the USA. Sadly, that is over.
@@kathydent2116 I totally agree with you. I am an avid researcher when things interest me. I don't watch much TV or movies. I like to swot up on 'stuff'. I find that the best way to get a decent 'layman's' understanding is to look at science from several different disciplines and be open minded. Scientists are still people so they still let their own beliefs and cognitive bias get in the way. They are often too quick to totally reject opinions and expertise from a different discipline. The people on NERVTAG represent some of the best modellers and epidemiologists in the world. As you quite rightly say the UK expertise and volume of genetic sequencing is world leading. I look forward to the results of the 'wet experiments. If he trashes these results and says they are somehow the 'wrong' experiments or are 'inconclusive' then we will know his bias is unshakeable. We will see in the New Year. Merry Christmas and stay safe.
TYG the data is already available for you to show us. You make a very specific case, thank you. I would like to hear the NERVTAG authors' response. I fear few have the experience to have a valuable opinion , but certainly you are one who does on this particular issue. Nobody is perfect, and I do have vivd memories of TWIV discounting the use of masks by the general public in late January or Feb, but you revised that opinion not long after. In a more recent episode the chance of becoming infected on an airplane was downplayed without data, which also triggered me. Nobody is perfect. TWIV has been a guiding light for so many of us during the pandemic, frankly more reliable than the famous, now infamous CDC. Despite so many good people, the CDC has fallen short in this terrible trial. Who knew one leader could wreak such institutional havoc?
Vincent, I'm a TWiV groupie so my comments here come from a shared desire for improved science communication. 1. Overall, I appreciate the level of detail you go into in the video about the location of the amino acid changes and their possible effect. 2. Although I've heard this on TWiV, I don't think I understand yet the reason that PCR can't be used to quantify viral load. I know you state it several times but I've not integrated the rationale yet and would like to have that elaborated upon. 3. I also don't understand why we can't say that an increase in prevalence in an area is a result of increased transmission. There are a finite number of variants that exist in a particular area. If you determine the prevalence of a variant at time X and then again at time Y and the prevalence has increased, why does that not mean the transmission is greater? Is this something about the definition of the term "transmission" with respect to virions? This also needs to be more fully explained. Thank you for taking the time to make the video and help explain what the media hypes.
The fact that it's not a easily picked up by PCR could explain why it's spread faster - people may have got a false negative result because the test for the spike protein didn't match, and gone about spreading the virus.
No fear in me. I dilute what I hear and listen to those like yourself who know exactly what they are talking about as you have not been bought. Thank you and keep up the good work. 🇬🇧
Instead of journalists scaring the shit out public we should have scientists voices heard
Didn’t help when the PM in Great Britain announced a more virulent form of the virus.
They must scare people to death so they get them off the fence and into line for vaccines 💰💰💰
@@OceanFrontVilla3 Ha, yeah, or *bribe* them with $50 to get vaccinated!
Formerly I was biased towards regarding journalists as solidly honourable types. Now I'm inclined to see them as dangerous scum.
The primary purpose of mainstream news media is not to give you the right information all the time. The primary purpose is to sell advertisements while getting away with twisting truths ever so slightly to create "shock value" so they catch the "attention" of the wider uninformed audience.
Thank you from the UK. Difficult to find some science in all this noisy propaganda in media. Brilliant lesson for us!
th-cam.com/video/LrpKBehJRls/w-d-xo.html
Plenty of science, read journals.
Hi Vincent , I don’t know how can I express my appreciation for your time and efforts in educating the public in this critical time . Covid-19 will disappear sooner or later but your efforts will be remembered in the history of science
And I'll be in that "keep listening after SARS2" camp! TWiV is awesome!
Amen to that. Thank you Vincent.
@@damianpos8832 if you are interested watch TWIV by Vincent
I read the UK variant story on the front page of my newspaper this morning. Thanks to being immunized by the wonderful TWIV vaccine I was able to fight off being misinformed quite easily. And this video is my booster shot. Thank you Dr. Racaniello and your brilliant colleagues and guests for bringing the voice of science and reason to counter the misinformation we are bombarded with daily.
Well said sir!
I agree. But isn't it frustrating that we have idiots like Hancock shooting from the hip and driving the country into a frenzy when we need a cool head and measured language?
@@rijamor Don't you think it's deliberate? Can Hancock really be that stupid?
@@FarmerJohn85 I'm not so sure. I'd like to think he's competent but the hole he's in now is so deep any U turn is impossible without him possibly facing criminal charges. Easier just to plough on and hide behind the plea that it was what everyone else was doing?
@@FarmerJohn85 this whole "pandemic" is deliberate. Why do we have people, that are not doctors or scientists like Bill Gates and politicians telling us we can't get back to "normal" until we are all vaccinated? Then we have big tech companies censoring debate and treatments on CV19. Then we have people like Klaus Schwab talking about the Great Reset. If we don't stand up to this, a virus is going to be the least of our concerns. Can people not see this? What governments around the world are doing is not about keeping us safe from a virus.
Thanks Vincent, I appreciate you taking the time to make this video, I have posted it and will send it to everyone I know!
I've been waiting for your comment , since yesterday
The TV news over here in the UK started off with ~new strain~ but today they are using ~variant~....maybe someone in the newsroom watched the previous TWIV episode, where this was touched upon.
Most people will still be scared shirtless of the the term "new variant"...you can count on the bbc (british bullshite company) for that 😱
"Shitless" I typed...friggin auto-correct 💩
RNA viruses mutate constantly; there is no such thing as a virus but a populations of genetic variants ( strains ) - the mutations can consist of missense, neutral ( synonymous ), or inversions, deletions. etc. Mutations in RNA virus populations are a good thing since most tend to result in defective viruses ( attenuated ). If these mutated viruses infect most of the human population, they will acquire natural immunity; only a small fraction of the world population will be suffer severe viral induced disease. There are now hundreds of SARS CoV 2 variants; this is the main reason outbreaks tend to burn out. World politicians, medical officials, etc. delayed this natural process for politics and greed ( i.e. vaccine company profits and hospital profits ).
@@chroniclerofthe70s Yep - genetic entropy resulting in "nature's vaccine", but it's free. Those from Pfizer et al are not.
Very true with these new strains it's impossible for them to say these new strains travel or infect people quicker what lab results have they done and where is the data no need to panic or be scared this is a natural proccess in viral reproduction as some amino acids change due to mistakes sometimes through this proccess the virus could be weaker we don't know yet as lab results data and natural factors need to be taken into concideration I wish the news outlets would tell facts they got most of the population in panic let's look at these new strains in 28 days and see the results first best wishes from glasgow
@@wboyle9721 RNA viruses use an RNA polymers that has less efficient proof reading mutations tend to accumulate at a higher rate than small double stranded DNA viruses small pox. Look up Muller's ratchet and Eigen's Paradox.
I wish I could explain my research so clearly and logically. Excellent job on founder effect, superspreading events and importance of proper experiments to draw any conclusions.
I've been posting transcripts of TWiV episode #696 all over the place where the team respond to the letter from David regarding this. I'll just start linking to your video instead now. THANK YOU!!!!!! I'm tired of everyone panicking around me.
where do you get a transcript?
Thank you, Vincent! I was just wondering this morning what you were thinking about this. 😊. Appreciate the science and the voice of reason.
Good analysis. You can imagine a "moderate confidence" that during summer months with lots of people outside, soaking up lots of sunlight, the value of Ro would be "substantially" reduced.
Yes, adequate levels of vitamin D3 and lactoferrin is useful against many viruses. Heat and humidity also tend to deactivate ( attenuate ) viruses within 1 to 4 days on average. World maps show nations that had low levels of vitamin D3 had more severe cases and deaths from covid19 related diseases. Viruses rarely kill people directly, in the case of covid19 ( dry cough and common cold like symptoms ) the severe form of the disease is known as SARS. The deadly form of the disease is due to a strong innate immune reaction known as the cytokine storm ( Interleukin 6, Tumor Necrosis Factor alpha, and other pro-inflammatory chemokines and cytokines ). Scientists are now discovering the individuals that are susceptible to infection and having strong immunological reactions to viral structural components.
Thank you, Professor Racaniello, for the great job you're doing in these difficult times! We follow up your talks and TWIV in Manila!
Boris (the UK's leader) had a political problem. Under pressure from his own party he promised a rule relaxation over Xmas. But infections were out of control and he needed to cancel this (and then some). So he waited 'til Parliament broke up for the holidays (and his supporters could no longer say anything) and hyped the new variant like crazy.
This gave him a pretext to cancel Xmas and tighten all the rules. But it also scared the living daylights out of politicians around the world (including those in Europe who all hate Boris). So the UK is now effectively blockaded and we're panic buying and expecting to starve.
Happy Holidays.
My husband asked me about this variant. I told him I was waiting to hear you discuss the data (if any) on TWiV. Thank you for posting this and keeping us informed.
Excellent presentation, sir. Thank you so much for debunking the hyperbolic headlines. I appreciate precision in language.
The new variant makes a good scapegoat.
Like it or not, we need for all practical purposes to cancel christmas. Better from a political angle than the government being forced to accept responsibility or blaming the people.
It will be some time before we know if this variant is more transmissible. If it is and the government hadn't acted, they'd be in even deeper trouble than they already are.
It's not about saving lives or stopping the spread, it's about saving your political career, being the journalist that gets the scoop, being the scientist that writes a headline paper with dubious facts or the celeb that heard something once and has an opinion about it. The real people that need to be listened to are marginalised and given vox-pop moments on mainstream media, normally out of context. Not sure we deserve to make it through this after the shit show we have made of everything in the last 30 years.
The public having Christmas cancelled over a drummed up panic without the data to back it will have long term, dire consequences for the public being willing to listen to anything the government says on this subject ever again.
It isnt just about cancelling Christmas, its the reimposition of restrictions that a lot of us just got out of. In Ireland, for example, we had six weeks at "level 5" restrictions that the government said would bring the case numbers down to a few dozen per day. What actually happened is we ended up with about 10x that figure per day after the six weeks. In the few weeks since then the virus has come back to up to where it was anyway.
The government is blaming nameless and faceless people for flaunting restrictions for its failure, and of course the "new strain" which as Professor Racaniello points out is not a new strain.
The fact is their projections were wrong. This virus spreads as easily as a cold it would seem and this is the time of year for that. They keep looking back at the collapse of cases in ~May and thinking they can achieve that in the winter but they clearly cannot. Its a good thing then that deaths are down 95% since earlier in the year but the governments own admission.
In fact the hospital system is not under as much strain as it was this time last year before the pandemic. There are no excess deaths this season, the profile of deaths is typical for seasonal illness. ICU occupancy is not out of control it lingers between 25-35 and has for months now despite the case numbers.
Yet we are now in full panic mode again, reentering level 5 from Xmas Eve and our deputy PM has given a range of restrictions of between 8 weeks and SIX MONTHS.
This is beyond absurd and based on flawed modelling from the start. They think because they can imagine exponential growth and plot it on a graph that it will happen that way in the real world and have been wrong from the start.
I'm not saying everything should be as it was a year ago but these "kill a fly with a bazooka" measures are making this worse.
Thank you. it is so Refreshing to hear clear concise information. instead of the political and main stream media fearmongering.
Excellent summary Vincent! Is that a fender Stratocaster in the background?
I think he said it was a cheap Squier in another video, maybe a Bullet?
@@robbyr9286 Thanks for the info!
It is it is! They've talked about it on the show! twitter.com/profvrr/status/1271801592103284742?lang=en
@@JC-nw2fu ok
Thank you for this very important message Vincent!
I knew you would want to correct the misinformation coming out this weekend...thanks for setting the record straight, as usual. Looking forwatd to your next TWIV
So glad i found this channel. I will tell my friends to sub too
Donier - we are all one in this fight.
The British government had zero interest in announcing a new strain. They see their frontiers closed, right in the worse part of the Brexit. They will even experience lack of some basic products, life some fruits. If the British government announce a more aggressive strain, we can be sure that this is a more aggressive strain.
@@originalkk882 Yes, now they can blame on the new strain, instead of their own mistakes, for the high prevalence they are suffering.
But all Western governments are blaming "the people" all the time, while they are doing almost nothing to stop the pandemic. Only China did the right thing and stopped the economy and used the technology properly.
I mean, there is no need to worsen the situation of the country just to hide their own mistakes.
thank you, this is exactly the type of video i was hoping to see today
They took the Spike protein from the SARS-COV-2 virus and added it to a virus that infects mice, with the N501Y mutation, it infected mouse cells 2x as fast. This is mentioned in the paper but is not discussed in this video. Maybe he read an earlier draft before the results of this experiment were completed.
Also no mention of the Del 70 / Delta 69 deletion that gives a false negative for the Spike gene on RT-PCR tests, which illustrates its immune evading properties, or the sister paper that talked about the deletion appearing in a patient treated with convalescent plasma, who died after the deletion appeared and circumvented convalescent (antibody) plasma treatment.
@@Diamonddavej
Please, give us the references to the studies / papers you are referring to. If possible by any chance !
I'd be grateful if you could provide references or links to the articles with this information you cited...
@@toreschanke4086 Here's a paper where they investigated the effects of the N501Y mutation on infectivity in mouse cells...
Gu, H., Chen, Q., Yang, G., He, L., Fan, H., Deng, Y.Q., Wang, Y., Teng, Y., Zhao, Z., Cui, Y. and Li, Y., 2020. Adaptation of SARS-CoV-2 in BALB/c mice for testing vaccine efficacy. Science, 369(6511), pp.1603-1607.
@@Diamonddavej Thanks a lot for the reference!
Wish this would be explained on the news... these headlines really generate some hysteria despite how meaningless it truly is.... Thanks for elaborating on this
And this happens against the background of trying to persuade denailists that mitigation polices aren't overblown panic.
Now we suddenly have what may be a case study in overblown panic with possibly serious repercussions.
One serious repercussion is that Christmas is "cancelled" and lives are saved.
@@Paulus8765, yes!
If we have a very Scarry Christmas this year, many will enjoy Christmas 2021 who'd otherwise not.
The flip-side is unwarranted panics could result in fewer people listening in the long-term. And now we have a cottage industry of public-health denialism ready to take up any blunder and put a spotlight on it for eternity.
@simon temple
"I do not blame the Prime Minister for lying about the new virus variant"
So, you're saying that he's lying?
wow, great explaination, that’s really what i said to my friends after some researches. it’s really good to hear from you, Mr Vincent!
Thanks for sharing this and toning down the media hype!
I have two questions/comments:
1) Viral load is frequently measured by quantitative PCR, this is the most common way it's measured for HIV. Of course it does not measure infectious virus, but it is a reasonable correlate of the amount of virus replicating in the body. As you mentioned, measuring viral shedding is practically challenging and almost impossible for routine diagnostics, what would you suggest as be a better way than PCR?
2) As a virologist and epidemiologist, I know epidemiological data cannot prove a biological property, however transmissibility IS an epidemiologic concept. Viral stability, replicative capacity, immunogenicity... these are viral properties but transmissibility is an epidemiologic property that results from a combination of biological, behavioral, and environmental factors. I don't think it's out of line for epidemiologists to examine correlations between biological factors and numbers of cases, in fact that's their job. However, I totally agree the media hype is exaggerated and there are most definitely confounding factors involved in the increases observed.
Thanks Vincent. Straight to the facts. Exactly what everyone needs to hear right now!
I like your podcast audio, but I do fall behind in keeping up with the volume of hours.
This video was perfect for youtube, in length and focus. I can't express enough how much I enjoyed seeing this come across my youtube feed.
Thank you, Vincent. I was waiting for this since the last episode of TWIV, and you came through!
OMG, Thank you! People went crazy on my facebook feed
@simon temple yes, the fact that politicians are making shitty decisions and then scientists are blamed for not knowing their job is another big part of the story.
It's very brave of you to go against the mainstream government and media narrative. You've earned my respect
Excellent video Vincent! Expert opinion, without the hype, comprehensive, not shying away from the details but clear enough and comprehensible to the lay person. Everynews and media outlet needs to watch your videos on the basic virology of SarsCoV2. I hope you do more videos like this. Thanks very much!
The british and South African variants are independently derived but have a key amino acid substitution in the same place and seem to be both spreading faster than the general disease so it's likely that these new variants are actually more contagious strains.
Founder effects (randomness in small populations) can explain individual instances of a new variants expanding faster at the begining of a surge but multiple independent loci and continued DIFFERENTIAL expansion over time make random advantages less likely.
Additionally this mutation is in a location, the spike binding domain, that is less likely to produce a neutral effect. It will tend to either be negative and will expand more slowly or die out, or rarely be positive and expand more rapidly.
My best guess is that S:N501Y (asparigine to tyrosine in position 501 of the spike protein), is an advantageous mutation to contagion. Since its operating on the spike protein there is a chance it's more virulent also since the infection may spread more rapidly within the individual not just between individuals.
This is one of (many) reasons why flattening the curve was desirable. As I mentioned back in March. They larger the population of viruses the faster they evolve.
I don't think it is likely that this variant will make the vaccine ineffective but they should start including it in future batches of vaccine. This should be easy to do if idiots don't stand in the way.
Nevertheless, we do run the danger of creating vaccine resistant strains if we roll the vaccine out slowly when the viral population is high. The large a population is, the faster it evolves. The weaker selective forces like low levels of vaccination, antiviral or other reproductive barriers are also more likely to lead to the evolution of resistance.
@Jeff Jeff that's almost true, founder effects are any time there's a bias in a large population due to random events when the population was small, so during the time when covid levels were low in the UK, there could have been a mutation that got randomly spread by luck and then grew rapidly during the expansion phase. This can make the genetic constitution of the population appear like it's undergone natural selection.
Super spreader events can amplify this randomness.
I found you by "The comment posted in the Drbeen Medical Lectures".
I deeply respect you, Professor.Vincent Racaniello of Virology. From Japan.
I’m literally at the epicentre of this mutation. In my borough we currently have 1,128 cases per 100,000 and 400+ deaths for a population of around 260,000. We’ve had a super spreader event at work where 11 staff member became infected about 4 weeks ago. Two people I know have now been hospitalised and during the first wave in April four of my colleagues lost a household member after taking the infection home. Social distancing is a joke and only around 50% of people wear masks on public transport. It’s pretty rough here...😢😢😢
oh man :( heart goes out to you.. please be safe..
Only 50% wear masks on public transport ?!? E gads
God bless Mr. Art. People are not abiding with the idea of mask in the town where I live (Miami, FL). It is truly sad. I work in a county park, and its every man for themselves. You take care. Cheers!
That is interesting, I’m in a teir2 area Northampton right next to teir 4 Bedfordshire and Bucks and almost 100% of people are wearing masks on public transport and in supermarkets, smaller shops the petite gangsters wear them with their noses hanging out of course., but still, it is some evidence all be is naturalistic observational evidence that better mitigation correlates to lower transmission.
Filling the schools as normal was probably a daft idea.
Also in the UK.
Thank you Vincent ...
Good on ya ! I listen to TWIV everyday 😊
Thank you, Vincent! I needed something to point people to and this is perfect!
This was an absolutely fantastic video. I learned a hell of a lot (though I need to watch it again to catch things I didn't quite understand, and to do side googling to expand on things you mentioned in passing). You are an island of rationality in a sea of alarmist headlines. Subscribed!
Very interesting, informative, and worthwhile video. Many thanks, Vincent.
Tanks Vincent! Just love those calm explanations with accurate precision.
Has your opinion about the variant changed since you posted this video?
You Sir, are a Very Cleaver man. Thank you for taking the time and trouble to explain. You have just made my day
Excellent, well-reasoned video thank you, but my feeling is that something has changed, which is not readily explained by changes in social distancing etc. Where I live in the East of England in Suffolk, we have had consistently low rates of infection. Now, suddenly, after ten months, we have almost the highest rate of new infections daily, second only to London and Wales. This increase seems to have spread rapidly up from London, through Essex, despite the fact that those places have been in tier 3 with tighter restrictions. I see no reason for a sudden superspreader event or enhanced founder effect here now, and many other areas of the UK that had high rates have not seen this acceleration, suggesting that this is not down to the Christmas effect, or coming out of lockdowns. While you are right to say that, strictly, epidemiology cannot PROVE the variant confers greater infectivity, association along with a viable mechanism (which we have in the spike protein changes) is always much more significant than just association, and we do not need PROOF in order to apply the precautionary principle.
Remember some months ago when we were all learning about how exponential increases behave?
That's one thing that can very easily give the impression of "sudden change", when it isn't.
A few others are:
- who is tested, and on what indications
- related to the above: very diligently tracking & tracing and testing loads of asymptomatics
- when the epidemic spreads in a vulnerable population (that's when you see hospitalisations hit the roof)
Then you have the things that might actually contribute quite a lot to spread:
- Distancing rules that don't make sense to people, and therefore lessen the overall adherence
- Natural seasonal variability in behaviour* - especially in conjunction with stupid rules
And on top of this all you of course have how things are reported.
* One thing I really appreciate here in Finland is that even while the official recommendation is stay at home, don't travel, don't meet others, many many experts and officials are open to giving useful advice: ventilate well, limit time with the most frail, don't sing, go get tested at the slightest suspicion, use masks especially in confined small spaces (cars), try to mitigate very dry room air, etc.
@@Asptuber Non of the things you list seem to me to explain why I am seeing a big change now, after 10 months of stability, or why it is occurring here and not elsewhere. If it is down to vulnerability in the population, why am I also seeing the same rise in London which has seen very high rates before and so might be expected to have exhausted it's supply of vulnerable spreaders?
@@lindosland It is so very very difficult to know what it is one sees. Especially if one follows media: trust me, I have in periods since March tried to intensely follow media in 3 countries (Finland, Sweden and Estonia) and then tried to correlate what gets space in media with what the numbers/trends show - it seems completely random. The thresholds for media attention shifts depending on so many factors.
I happen to be in a region with very very few cases comparatively in Europe, but in the city most affected in my country (Helsinki). Following our numbers very closely it is amazing how what feels like a surge comes out of no where. Everything alright, 2wk incidence slowly creeping around 30-70/100 000 and then BAM! Suddenly it is more than doubled in 10 days. And then again (almost). And then people in ICU quadruple between Friday and Monday.
I was keeping close tabs on the numbers (incidence, and also % pos testing), so I saw this exponential thing starting already when the numbers were low. I was still surprised at how fast it was. *
I can imagine that if this happened but on a larger scale (not 2wk 100k incidence from 40 to 200, but from 100 to 800) it would very easily feel like there must be something new in play.
Vulnerability of the population is very tricky. Because we sort of want to think in terms we are familiar with from flu, both susceptibility and transmission patterns. Neither of which is applicable.
I don't think the susceptibility is lessened really anywhere in Europe outside of maybe villages in Bergamo region (might exist similar other places too that we don't hear about, thinking villages in Moldova or Ukraine). You never have this situation with flu.
I don't think there's a densely populated area anywhere where the majority of the population isn't still susceptible. Either to illness, or to acting as an asymptomatic vector.
[Soapbox] The main reason "herd immunity" is a criminally stupid idea is not the death toll from the virus (though that's nasty too). It is that we just aren't set up for caring for everyone getting sick at once. And that is what would happen.
Even people who really should know better don't get this: this is not like flu. We don't have a large chunk of the population that has partial immunity.
* Our numbers here are now trending downward. Even the % positive tests - I really feared when those started going above 4%, but last week it finally dipped below 3% again.
We don't have a lock down. We never had, but people did start to change how they act somewhere around beginning of December. It helps to be an asocial nation where personal space is second nature I guess. I'm probably not the only one who likes that I can now put my bag on the seat beside me on the bus or tram with a clear conscience.
@@Asptuber Thanks, you make many valid points, but I don't think we have an answer. Suffolk is not heavily populated. I question what you say about herd immunity, because there is I believe some evidence that prior exposure to other viruses confers some immunity. Also, vitamin D status, and genetic factors can render a section of the community resistant to the virus, and we don't know on what scale. It also seems clear to me that every population is stratified; countryside dwellers have limited contact which must greatly reduce the R number for them compared to others who mix a lot and travel. Thus a fraction of a community can be considered immune in terms of the big picture (though not if they happen to meet a spreader) - vaccinating them will have little effect on numbers. I just stay in and stay safe for now, while pondering this stuff, and very much being sceptical of the media !
" epidemiology cannot PROVE the variant confers greater infectivity"
Oh really.
jvi.asm.org/content/94/7/e00127-20
"Alarmingly, our data predict that a single N501T mutation (corresponding to the S487T mutation in SARS-CoV) may significantly enhance the binding affinity between 2019-nCoV RBD and human ACE2."
"2019-nCoV evolution in patients should be closely monitored for the emergence of novel mutations at the 501 position"
Higher binding seen on N501Y. You can also note the binding changes are positive for N439K and Y453F, mutations that contain the deletions at position 69/70, a feature of the b.1.1.7 strain:
jbloomlab.github.io/SARS-CoV-2-RBD_DMS/
You can also find many pre-prints highlighting the exact concerns raised by the b.1.1.7 strains here:
www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.14.422555v3
archive.is/1mw9t
But scientists on youtube don't get paid or keep their channels if they address the actual research being done SARS-CoV-2. That's why they call it covid, like they were told to.
If scientists wrote the 'news' they would become more bland, and exact, instead of inducing hysteria. Unfortunately it won't happen. Too bad!
Yay, capitalism!
When the news are ruled by the laws of profit you get populist crap, anything that's scary and little segments about a special puppy - isn't it adorable???
You get anything, except real news.
@@barbarusbloodshed6347 It has to do with political freedom, not the economic system. Thus you implicitly favour state control of the news, meaning China (another capitalist country) beckons you. When you get there, please start blogging so we can read about what's going on.
Oh, wait, that's right: they censor blogs. Isn't it adorable? But at least you'll be happy there, having at last freed yourself from the West.
@@dixonpinfold2582 1. China is a communist country, despite all their commercial trade.
2. Just because someone can see the dubious effects of an under-regulated free market, doesn't mean they are advocating for communism or some other country's flavour of regulation, they are only commenting on precisely what they commenting on. Your statement is "black and white thinking".
3. Just because there are problems with one system, pointing to a worse system doesn't absolve the first system. That is called "whataboutism".
@@PinataOblongata
1. China has more billionaires than any other country. This you call communism!
2. It was the commenter's assertion that a free market causes shoddy journalism, not mine. Let him, or you, defend it; my aim was to contradict it, and correct it. In order to do so, I asserted political freedom is the (primary) origin of shoddy journalism and that, therefore, a decrease of political freedom would improve things. This is a rhetorical device intended to reveal a weakness in his argument, not a sincere suggestion. It is not black-and-white or all-or-nothing thinking, which is a refusal to assign gradations of value (where they demonstrably or axiomatically exist).
3. I have no desire to deny the problems brought about by political freedom. That _would be_ black-and-white thinking. I could talk about them all day long. But holding up prioritization of freedom as the best model despite its problems necessarily entails criticism of other models, since I will hardly bother to compare it to the system in paradise, whatever that might be. You can call this 'whataboutism' till the end of time if you like. I don't care. I call it making a comparison of extant choices.
It is certainly admirable, at any rate, that you apply yourself to the study of logical fallacies. Thanks for your reply.
@@dixonpinfold2582 if there was a story on dog shit,you people would figure out how to make it about your personal freedom 🤦🏻♂️😆
Founder effects and neutral spread are not consistent with the very high dN/dS in this lineage. Strong evidence of positive selection pressure
Hi Vincent. I like your work, but this is something to be concerned about. 1.5x more transmissible, similar substitutions occurring in both the UK and SA variances. Though it is certainly true that viruses mutate all of the time, SARS-CoV-2 mutates approx 2x/month. The new UK variance seems to have 17 changes, and came out of nowhere. In addition, this particular RNA virus can repair some of its mutations, although most mutations in the spike protein which survive appear to be possibly beneficial for the virus.
What do you mean by beneficial?
Vincent you are my Christmas Star today! Thank you for all you and the nerd crew to share accurate science! I am so endeared to you all!
Wow! Absolutely brilliantly explained in a succinct, level-headed and non-patronising way. Thank you so much not only for the reassurances (and there were many) but also for the excellent clarity of your communication. My first time watching one of your videos - I will unquestionably watch many more!
I'm not trained in this field, but this sounds like honest analysis.
I think it's the fact that nothing is stated with certainty. My science and engineering background has trained me to listen for probabilities and mistrust when people express things with absolute certainty.
Some folks are just here to sell a political narrative, but the actual experts in the field are just trying to understand the truth.
I get the same feeling from Fauci.
So Fauci is trying to sell a political narrative?
@@rickknight3823 Why do you say that?
@@Falcrist I was just trying to clarify your last sentence .
Is Fauci non biased or without political affiliation?
He certainly cherry picks information which isn't a good sign. I see a lot vaccine associated parties trying to appear even handed when the momentum is going towards their desired outcome.
Very clever political side step feigning a left for a right hook pacifier.
@@rickknight3823 The answer to your question is that Fauci is without political affiliation, and has worked for both democratic administrations and republican administrations since the 80s. Listening to him contradict the current admin has made it quite clear that he interested in communicating honest analysis rather than pushing agenda.
It's easy to cast aspersions. Be more specific in your critique.
I dont trust Fauci. He makes contradictory statements from one day to the next and is too closely allied to big pharma.
Thank you Vincent for the overdue perspective on the variant. I've been hammering home to people all week: increased prevalence of a marker is not evidence for increased spread of a variant caused by biological change in the virus.
Even if the increased prevalence was relevant to biology, I think there is a further problem with the origin of the idea for increased transmissibility in the way the prevalence of the variant has been determined - it does not seem to be based on proper sampling with sequencing but rather on a subtle change in the PCR profiles in the testing programme. Namely, three targets are looked at in the PCR test in the UK, one of these targets spike sequences. The PCR signal using the spike primers is, apparently, slightly attenuated (higher Ct) with the variant compared to the signals for the other two targets. This observation appears to be the method used to determine the prevalence of the variant - scoring PCR tests that appear to have the subtly altered Ct ratios between the spike and other targets. Without validation against large numbers of sequenced isolates, I suspect this means of counting occurrences of the new variant is unlikely to be reliable. In other words, the evidence for the proportion of infections being due to the variant may be itself weak.
Excellent, just the info I've been needing to share !
But you're also making a statement with little to no data. The real answer is we simply don't know yet.
I know i really like twiv and I understand that you can’t take correlation as causation until proper tests are done - but that doesn’t mean the default position that there is no connection as we just don’t know yet either way. I live in London - through March onwards they never opened anything that would be a ‘super-spreader’ event in the whole of the UK, no concerts, no stadiums, we don’t have thanksgiving Here, etc etc so he can’t presume this as the alternative reason to the sharp rise in cases despite being in tier 3 lockdown. What there wasn’t good control of throughout though was travel, testing and tracing properly, etc. But on a day to day basis I see most Londoners wearing masks if In stores, etc. And there was no major change in the last few weeks during the recent sharp rise of cases so there is something happening, posibnly the other strain, possibly something else, possibly multiple factors!
Thank you, Vincent.
I've shared this with my friends here in the UK but I have a sneaky feeling that not many will believe it.
The spectre of the new variant is already well and truly out of the bag, thanks to government and media.
I really appreciate these mini lectures you have prepared on covid topics. I would have like this better if you had discussed the actual studies that were used to suggest the correlation between R values and the variant, changes in Ct values and viral load. I accept that this evidence is circumstantial but it is hard to determine its value (circumstantial is still useful) without seeing the actual study. I suspect your evaluation is correct but I am not comfortable accepting it without a review of the actual evidence. Is it possible to provide a link?
It was wonderful the way you showed the locations of the changes in the virus structure. I have been watching mutations since the start of this crisis and knew they were not germane to covid infection, but I really liked the way you put it all together. Please keep teaching. I love it.
Just as with most scientific papers, if the title is posed as a question, the answer is usually no. :D
I am from the UK. Thank you so much for sharing a factual and balanced argument.
Great video, thank you. It's great to have a rational voice to cut through the hype.
Many thanks again for your much appreciated knowledge and the TWIV channel,for everyone to listen to if they choose😊
One genuinely interesting thing though that I just learned: P681H! This is a mutation affecting the Proline ahead of the RRAR furin site. What that means re: infectiousness etc...? Dunno! But that is genuinely interesting (to me at least).
@@juancarloslopez-corbalan Furins are ancestrally involved in the innate immune response. For instance, we just put out a preprint on a furin-cleaved polypeptide of fruit flies that encodes antifungals produced upon infection: www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.23.394148v2
Furin cleavage is best known to act at RXRR or RXKR polybasic sites. The Sars-CoV2 site is RRAR, whereas MERS-CoV has RXVR if I recall correctly... so there are certainly alternate motifs that are likely cleaved, but these are less understood. Good review by Braun and Sauter (2019) on the whole furin-like family of humans and their cleavage: www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6682551/
Furins act probably at the cell membrane or perhaps during trafficking to the cell membrane, and also perhaps at the golgi. Actually kind of unclear, and maybe all three are true. There are a number of cell entry dynamics driven by furin enzymes, including Sars2, HPV, and even anthrax toxin (ref below) gets cleaved by furin upon cell entry. I think we're at the point to know "yes, this is important." But I don't think we're at a point where we can look at a furin site (and surrounding residues) and predict much. I know it was mentioned on TWIV way back that the Proline residue ahead of the furin site is known to interfere with enzyme cleavage efficiency; I think it sticks out in a way that gets in the way of the enzyme a bit.
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6347675/
@@BrokenTeddyGroup ~ thank you.
@BrokenTeddyGroup
Does that mean this mutation gives insight into the method the viral particle enters the cell?
This video has more likes than any government MSM COVID related video that has been put out in the last 8- 9 months. Thank you for this information!
You, Dr John Campbell, & my personal Dr have all said the same. I’m glad for Doctor’s like you who just tell it like it is and don’t add to panic, yet if something is bad you also explain that.
ECDC also mentions that S-gene mutation in this variant may impact diagnostic accuracy "The UK reports that the deletion 69-70 in the spike protein of the variant causes a negative result from S-gene RT-PCR assays applied in some laboratories in the UK". Prof. VR, could U comment on this?
"This double deletion has been detected in multiple unrelated lineages, including the recent ‘Cluster 79 5’ mink related strain in the North Jutland region of Denmark."
Source: www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.05.20241927v2.full.pdf
If you have good assays then one mutation is not a problem, because it relies on different fragments. So if your assays does not work due to one commonly happen mutation, I would say you need to fix your assays, otherwise this testing may do more harm than good...
We are reminded here why the hiring policy of The Economist is so sound: They recruit science correspondents who are well-trained and learned in science and who can also write, rather than good writers with a knack for learning a little science on the fly. If more media outlets adopted it, Prof. Racaniello would have fewer of these informational fires to put out.
Well the Economist is far from in the clear regarding any bias.
They are part owned by the infamous Rothschild's..
Who happen to have a long history of meddling with our societiy..... should one feel compelled to dig a little...
They of course have a vested interest in information being presented in a particular way to suit any number of agendas.
Same with the evening standard now employing ex Tory chancellor George Osborne as chief editor..
Hmmm 🤔
@@rickknight3823 As I understand it The Economist's main shareholder is the scion of the Agnellis, who control Fiat. It should be easy to check.
Anyway, I never said they have no bias. Everyone has bias, it's all a matter of how you handle it. I just said they have a sensible way of hiring their stooges.
(Just so you're aware of it, any reference to the Rothschilds that makes them out to be infamous, evil, or whatever makes anyone sound like a hopeless crank. So at least be sure to get your facts straight, assuming you believe the Rothschilds allow the existence of such things as facts.)
@@dixonpinfold2582 Yes that's correct, the owners of Fiat are the main shareholders in the Economist. The irony of our "fiat" currency in relation to the Rothschilds is rather fitting!
Have you ever dug into their history at all?
Yes, all that conspiracy theorist labelling comes hand in hand with their name. Still, doesn't detract from their past associations.
Have you read "The Creature from Jekyll Island"?
@@rickknight3823 No and no. There may well be something to all the insinuations about them but I have other fish to fry. Eventually, I suppose; for now I'll take half a minute and google Jekyll.
Had to smile at your 'fiat' punning. Good one. (And more and more people are going to learn that word, aren't they? I urge you not to be without metals, cryptocurrency, or _something_ other than fiat money for your savings. It's looking way shaky.) ;)
Edit: Ok, it's about the Fed. Good, I'll throw another 10 or 20 minutes at it and see what I think. Thanks.
One last edit: Two minutes sufficed. I can't handle these guys who say it's all lies and all carefully hidden, but I got to the bottom of it unassisted and without that much effort. But, again, thanks.
@@dixonpinfold2582
(Apologies this went off on a bit of a tangent)
Jolly good!
Although I found that patience pays off with the style it's written in.
For those of us wanting a non dramatised, factually based explanation, it does develop into that.
It's a hefty 600 page read - large leaf book, not sure if a few minutes will do it justice..
I appreciate your advice for getting into metals etc.
I've been on this "red pill" journey quite a number of years now. I saw some sort crisis majorly affecting the economy a few years ago. The sheer size of Americas now $28 trillion debt with just $4 trillion equity in the form of student loans influenced that slightly....
I bought into crypto back in 2012, amongst other Investments after randomly coming across it as payment option on a site signing it's praises.
Remember, it's all about the blockchain/ decentralised currency.
The whole point is to avoid the inevitable central/private banking manipulation & control. The source of much human suffering these past few centuries.
They are "apparently" trying to develop a digital currency at the Fed, without the decentralising element of blockchain. So same system, different paint job.
Have you read anything on Klaus Shwarb at the World Economic forum on their glorious "Great Reset"?
He has his sights on a Fourth industrial revolution, with an associated manifesto of sorts!
What a dear thoughtful chap he is..
It's basically a technocratic version of Communism once you get into it.
Essentially it's a bid for these controlling financial goliath's for full control - one world order. (Yes, I know how it sounds)..
They are attempting to use Climate change to blame the common human and so have the excuse to enforce dictatorial powers over our natural freedoms. All softy softy... Slowly boiling the frog..
You may have heard of Agenda 21, the majority of countries signed up to this in the early 90s, probably not realising it's full implications.
The emphasis is not on real environmental improvement, but on human subservience and private ruling establishment profit & hegemony.
I saw a fantastic recent documentary on the farce of the renewable energy industry and most associated sectors . Since been removed from TH-cam.
Michael Moore recently made a similar controversial doc this year called "Planet of the Humans".
Exposing a lot the environmental industry hypocrisy.
We are of course left in the dark as to the true cause of climate change, which affects the whole of our solar system...
The natural cycles are completely down played.
By all means improve air quality and environmental pollution, but climate change.... ,🤔🤦♂️
This coronavirus pantomime just acts as a segway to this ultimate goal. Enough of us can see through a lot of he nonsense pumped out by maintainstream media.
What happened to boosting "both" our immune systems as a way to improve a nations health?! Vitamin D, C Zinc - beta glucans??
Thank you so much for sharing this information. You have provided such a beneficial service to alay the panic that has been growing since this mutation was first reported in news reports. It’s often about using accurate
vocabulary.
Thank you, Professor Racaniello for continuing to be a voice of reason and scientific principles in a sea of misinformation (and sheer lunacy)!
Thank you for putting in overtime for us all. Shared.
Meanwhile, this fear has "cancelled" Christmas, which will probably save lives.
Yeah, I really hope that people watching appreciate that Vincent on all of Microbe.tv does a huge amount of work. His clarity in this particular case makes me wish for more of same on TWiV, the gold standard for Covid-19 info.
we need more people like you advising this crazy politians
Thank you Vincent .. I've shared the information widely and it is much appreciated.
Thank you Dr R from the south east UK
Thank you for making this dedicated video on the topic.
Thank you for calming my fears. I wish you could pick up the phone and explain it to Mr Macron and for that matter to Mr Johnson too!
They don’t want to know Gill, it is not their end game. They are not listening to these scientist, they do not want us to know.
th-cam.com/video/LrpKBehJRls/w-d-xo.html
How reliable! Thank you so much for the detailed explanation. News journalists should watch this before writing an article.
Thank you for always being the voice of reason. I wasn't concern at all when I first heard this story because viruses are always mutating.
Thank you Vincent! I knew that's what you would be saying, watching TWiV this year must have taught me something! Appreciate hearing the details.
I needed to hear this! So tired of being unnecessarily scared by media bs.
Dear Vincent, I found your explanation extremely useful. Many thanks, John in the Old Country.
We need to hear from the guitar in back. Really.
Love your knowledge and the way you are passing it on. Thank you!
Well, UK had 18,000 cases one week ago, today 40,000. The same pattern in South Africa. Check data on worldometers. Today, UK announced the finding of a new even more transmissible variant. More cases = more deaths 12 day after. UK officials take this very very very serious.
This is the most informative explanation that gives the details of the UK variant. Thanks. I’m gonna link to this when I respond to comments on youtube news videos. People may not understand everything here but hopefully they will see experts with awesome insight are not over reacting.
here's the answer you've been looking for 24:02
Glad you took the time to look at this. Thanks.
Nailed it! Hype vs real scientific evidence. Thanks.
th-cam.com/video/LrpKBehJRls/w-d-xo.html
No news or government organization provide such clear and calm analysis than this youtube clip. What a changing world.
I hear what you are saying, but here is the problem with what you are saying: you say you have doubts, that there isn't conclusive evidence, but ... there is still a lot of evidence. one strain becoming 60% of all the variants in a population that has been getting infected by other strains continuously for six months now sure seems like a pretty decent indicator that there is something unusual about that variant. All of the other experiments may not be ideal, but they are indicative of a behavioral change. Doing the experiments you want to do to get to know it better would take a lot of time to get conclusive evidence.
So what is the one thing a viral outbreak doesn't give you? A lot of time to get to know it better.
The people responsible for fighting the virus and saving lives have to take the best evidence available to make decisions. Right now, they essentially have four pieces that say it is a problem, albeit weakly, and none saying that it isn't. What are the consequences of doing nothing until there is conclusive evidence evidence vs taking some further action to control the spread now? I mean, countries are cutting off travel to england... why the hell is there international travel right now anyway?!
Not to be a dick about it, but you have the luxury of tutting it away because of imperfect research. They don't. They have a completely different standard they have to work with, and a little over reaction is a lot better than severe under reaction. If it makes people stay inside and stop spreading COVID (currently at about 5x our rate of vaccination...), bring on some over reaction.
It makes me think of "What if Global Warming is a hoax, and we waste all that effort making a better world for nothing?"
Thank you. Let's hope that journalists will watch this and not spread bad information.
Thank you, Professor!
Thank you for continuing to explain things clearly.
Thank you Professor Racaniello. Be well!
Thank you for making this video, a it is a prompt and comprehensive answer to my question on Twitter.
Thank you for the video. and i wish our leaders would be more interested in this. we need better decisions then just locking everything down. because there is a physical limit to which extend that can be applied
The trouble with the government and Sage is that they are so scared of being blamed and as a result far too over cautious and panicky and we are paying the price of their incompetence.
th-cam.com/video/LrpKBehJRls/w-d-xo.html
I am British and I think that the hype is absolutely warranted. You need to look at the bigger picture. Our prime minister had given licence for people to travel and mix with family and friends for a period of FIVE DAYS over the Christmas period. However, Covid is now spreading in schools, university students have gone home for Christmas and the behaviour of members of the public has become increasingly gung-ho with Christmas excitement and optimistic news about the vaccines. In southern Britain there is now a rapid spread of the virus and increases in deaths, with hospitals looking set to be overwhelmed in January. It's okay for an American scientist to be pontificating in his office because the American government is doing zip to stop people dying, but British scientists are required to give information that enables our government to take action. I don't care if the hype has been exaggerated. The result is that many people have been obliged to cancel their plans to take stupid risks over Christmas and that is a very, very good thing.
The epidemiological data looks very compelling. The virology experiments are under way. Vincent was very scathing about another variant D614G and said there was no evidence that it was / is more transmissible. It is now the dominant strain in both USA and the UK. Founder effects can't be responsible for dominance on 2 continents! I like Vincent but like many scientists he is not willing to accept the conclusions from another scientific discipline. A kind of virology snobbery if you will. I strongly suspect he will need to eat his words and promote this from 'variant' to 'strain'. Hopefully this will lead him to be more tolerant / accepting of the skills of the statisticians, genomicists and epidemiologists.
@@drewetpa Yes, I detected a hint of snobbery when he was splitting hairs about terminology. The fact is that UK scientists are doing 45% of the world's genome work on this virus so our scientists have FACTS and America's don't. The entire government machinery in the US has been trashed by the orange baby, so public health information is lacking or wrong or ignored. The world used to rely on the brains of the USA. Sadly, that is over.
@@kathydent2116 I totally agree with you. I am an avid researcher when things interest me. I don't watch much TV or movies. I like to swot up on 'stuff'. I find that the best way to get a decent 'layman's' understanding is to look at science from several different disciplines and be open minded. Scientists are still people so they still let their own beliefs and cognitive bias get in the way. They are often too quick to totally reject opinions and expertise from a different discipline. The people on NERVTAG represent some of the best modellers and epidemiologists in the world. As you quite rightly say the UK expertise and volume of genetic sequencing is world leading. I look forward to the results of the 'wet experiments. If he trashes these results and says they are somehow the 'wrong' experiments or are 'inconclusive' then we will know his bias is unshakeable.
We will see in the New Year. Merry Christmas and stay safe.
Thank you for your time to explain this and walking through the science, it’s very much appreciated......
Thankyou - you’ve backed up my feelings on this nightmare situation implemented by scared governments...
As always, thank you! You and the whole TWIVer crew continue to ground my sanity. True public servant you are Vincent! Stay Ornery. :)
TYG the data is already available for you to show us. You make a very specific case, thank you. I would like to hear the NERVTAG authors' response. I fear few have the experience to have a valuable opinion , but certainly you are one who does on this particular issue. Nobody is perfect, and I do have vivd memories of TWIV discounting the use of masks by the general public in late January or Feb, but you revised that opinion not long after. In a more recent episode the chance of becoming infected on an airplane was downplayed without data, which also triggered me. Nobody is perfect. TWIV has been a guiding light for so many of us during the pandemic, frankly more reliable than the famous, now infamous CDC. Despite so many good people, the CDC has fallen short in this terrible trial. Who knew one leader could wreak such institutional havoc?
Vincent, I'm a TWiV groupie so my comments here come from a shared desire for improved science communication.
1. Overall, I appreciate the level of detail you go into in the video about the location of the amino acid changes and their possible effect.
2. Although I've heard this on TWiV, I don't think I understand yet the reason that PCR can't be used to quantify viral load. I know you state it several times but I've not integrated the rationale yet and would like to have that elaborated upon.
3. I also don't understand why we can't say that an increase in prevalence in an area is a result of increased transmission. There are a finite number of variants that exist in a particular area. If you determine the prevalence of a variant at time X and then again at time Y and the prevalence has increased, why does that not mean the transmission is greater? Is this something about the definition of the term "transmission" with respect to virions? This also needs to be more fully explained.
Thank you for taking the time to make the video and help explain what the media hypes.
The fact that it's not a easily picked up by PCR could explain why it's spread faster - people may have got a false negative result because the test for the spike protein didn't match, and gone about spreading the virus.
Just creating panic, they dont wanna let the topic ("COVID") go. Great Talk! you are added to be subscribe list
No fear in me. I dilute what I hear and listen to those like yourself who know exactly what they are talking about as you have not been bought. Thank you and keep up the good work. 🇬🇧