@@ugiswrong I have to push back on this a significant bit. Peter, why perceived by some, has put his ideas out there in book and in MULTIPLE videos throughout the decade (plus). In his books and now in these shorts. What have we, those of us commenting here, put out there? How many blogs have we written, to say nothing of having written books. I like Peter sticking his finger in the eye of my perspectives and challenging us to think about and view the world in a new lens. I suspect Peter could slap each of us into intellectual oblivion half his brain tied behind his back. If you view that as an ego thing, then post a link to your books, your blog, your videos on this subject. Ego? Yup, he has one and I appreciate that ego driving him to post a new video and write another book. Books by the way, I have read. Every single one of them. I will wait for your links.
I imagine that the Chinese are absolutely furious about having to pay less for their oil imports. I expect them to object loudly, cooperate quietly, and pocket their discount happily. But angrily.
It gives India and China ability to negotiate Russian price down whenever worldwide price rises. Since oil products are ultimately fungible this will ultimately tend to mitigate overall oil price spikes & OPEC pricing control. This will tend to discourage bringing new oil sources online however, so it raises the risk of a future oil crunch, but I would guess that distortion is viewed as acceptable in the short term.
Ive said it a million times before. Contrary to common belief on the “no limits” partnership China has with Russia, China only cares about China. At the end of the day, Xi would gladly throw Putin under a bus if it meant it would enrich his own party. So yes. To your sarcasm, China is soooooo furious about the cheap gas they are getting from Russia.
@@juanzingarello4005 Yes, and India only cares about India. There is zero chance of a united Russia-China-India front to oppose “the West” beyond the occasional photo op. Far too much self dealing and conflicts of interest.
Well it wasn't so U.S. centric, apart from the Navy convoy bit, which I don't quite get, the U.S. is taking a more introspective role but its military budget is going to be the same, so all the money will be spent on navel gazing in their own backyard, to me it doesn't stack up, there is a big hole in this logic, and it will be in the defence budget. Natural selection = Use it or lose it!?!
@@thomasherrin6798 The US spends about 3 trillion per year on its welfare state and it has done that so as to lessen the effects of outsourcing from US manufacturing. A good proportion of that manufacturing is going to be returning to those traditional areas of manufacturing in the US which is going to lessen the need for a welfare state. The US military budget is not just about fielding a sizeable military force it is about a force that has far more firepower than anybody else out there. The US will still have a global presence but it will be in context of its own interests which is going to be the similar position the US had before WW2.
@@bighands69 The big question here though is, can we even turn many of our workers around? Peter correctly talks about lack of high end technical workers, but we don't talk about the simple fact that a MASSIVE (and growing) group of people in the US have zero work ethic to hold such a job. I hope I am wrong, but the welfare state may radically impede us, when we need to "retool" citizens to factory jobs.
Peter being unsure is definitely preferrable to him being confidently incorrect. I'm glad he's discussing a relevant topic today and not a historical topic.
@@Cas8228 It's a complex issue, but ultimately everyone gets "hungry" and most "hungry" people will eventually work. The solution is to ensure they have no other option unless their parents want to enable them forever.
"This is unprecedented in many ways so I really don't know how this is going to play out. But... (proceeds to lay out facts and speculation to the best of his ability)" Ok, my respect for Peter (which was already decently high) just shot up 1000%. This is how to be a public intellectual, folks.
Peter has a combination of things he’s good at, starting with storytelling, which is most important. He also has a form grip on the facts and details. And he pairs all thing with a willingness to editorialize and speculate. It all wraps up in a package that’s, informative, entertaining and a bit provocative or controversial. It’s awesome
One thing you didn't touch on is how do the other OPEC countries feel about this. Surely they're concerned that the power to set price will be taken from them altogether at some point in the future and are will collectively oppose this.
None of the OPEC countries are really stable economic engines. That means they will not have he military tools to actually go out into the world and force their will. Saudi Arabia as a military force is based entirely on US technological systems. What many do not understand is in the middle East Saudi Arabia and Israel are going to be a partnership where the Israelis are going to be the senior partner to that. But all goes back to the US. SO while Saudi Arabia can play politics with certain US presidents in the long run they will still be under that umbrella.
@@bighands69 Actually, this is not accurate. 1. OPEC can set who they sell to. Cutting Europe off, raising prices, or reducing barrelage isn't impossible. 2. Saudia Arabia has been diversifying their arms for years now. Part of the consternation the USA has with them pertains to purchases from Russia.
@@VertigoX26 the Saudis have plenty of hardware, but what they don’t have is the skill or ability to use it. The latest and greatest military tech doesn’t mean diddly if your military personnel are a bunch of slapd*cks.
I really like his talks. They're so informative with info I can't seem to get anywhere else. He's the kind of guy you'd like to spend an afternoon with.
As a long-time watcher, appreciate that you touched on your prior points made about the permafrost impact on oil flows - was curious about getting an update on that. Also liked the level of depth you went into on this one. Will continue to look forward to these every day while they last!
An additional thing with the cap: it facilitates speculators to short the Urals crude because any losses are limited by the cap. This is one reason Ural crude is and will trade substantially below the 60 USD cap, currently closer to 50.
For all those people who want to see the US Dollar be eliminated as the world's reserve currency...good luck with that. Dislocated markets will be a contributing case to a world in disarray. I would also like to see Canada-Mexico-USA become the new OPEC and create the biggest energy independence fortress the world has ever seen.
Canada, Mexico and US have their own oil and industry to back it. The problem is that Europe thought it was more important to build welfare states, lecture America about morality and do nothing in the world. Europe is now on a fish hook and may end up on the dinner plate at some point.
There is a board game that has a "future history" wherein Canada, Mexico and the United States federate into a single political entity called the "North American Combine" or just the "Combine" for short. Weird how facts can sometime look like their about to emulate fiction.
I was worried a little about Yuan taking over. But CCP seizing business's (destroying Jack Ma) and Russia refusing to return Airplanes. Well, that is the end of that story. No dictatorship backed currency is going to become the world reserve currency.
Peter, I don't know my "1930's strategy and economic patterns". And I am sure that a bunch of us don't! Please do another video to enlighten us. P.S. I absolutely love your videos. (And your books, of which I now have two so far.)
Could also be oil was shipped by little blue barrels, as a product, I assume would be insurable as cargo apposed to a tanker. That's why we use BBL as an oil measure a blue barrel.
@@mann8098 He was alluding to Japan making a desperate push for Indonesia to secure its oil and then realizing they needed to prevent an American response due to the US controlled Phillipines being directly between Japan and the Indonesian archipelago, so they needed to destroy the US fleet at Pearl Harbor pre-emptively, thus beginning WW2. We're headed back to a world of regional powers vying for influence now that aircraft carriers mean absolutely nothing as security guarantors for at least the next 10 years (hypersonic sea skimming missiles).
Bargaining with oil; like America used it to pressure Japan or supply the Commonwealth or how Germany made a deal with the USSR to free it up for war with the West.
Appreciate your out of box thinking. The insurance angle is very interesting and creates new opportunities despite the new risks. After all that is what insurance is for.
I wonder if its caused by the room itself, high ceilings can cause a pretty big echoing problem that the camera or microphone wouldn't really be able to fix. It also makes it hard to detect for anyone accustomed to sitting in the room before uploading
It is simply wrong that Rusia can Switch off the oil fields in Bakhirisan. The problem is not just freezing of oil. Once they stop pumping the capillaries in the Rock are clogging and when they try to start pumpen later the flow will be much lower.
56 seconds in and you already explain this better than the MSM and the actual reason for being able to pull this off, something completely missing in their reporting
MSM are nothing but advertising agencies for their corporate owners, co-opted by the Soviets back in the 1950s at the latest. In other words, you get multiple layers of lies and distractions from reality, based on sensationalist headlines and hook stories to keep you watching so the advertisers can promote garbage products, and editors can slip in communist ideology all at the same time.
Very interesting topic, as is the new field (at least to me) of 'geopolitics'. I saw your recent discussion at the Commonwealth club. P.S. I will be ordering your boo 'The End is Just the Beginning. Perhaps it will explain the how/why of a diminishing international maritime security, and what its parallels are to the 1930s.
Please research Smoot-Hawley and all the ramifications that happened due to the passage of this bill. It is too long for me to type here but this is what Peter is referring to.
Can I suggest you to use a tie mic indoor? It would help a lot to eliminate the very reverberated room ambience. Thanks a million for your fantastic analysis.
It'd be interesting to see a video or series about your job. Do you have a specialty? What kind of consulting do you do and what kind of projects? How much public data do you use vs any other obscure datasets that are maybe your secret sauce? Etc.
The big thing is enforcement. Who's going to do it and what can they do to those potentially caught? Is it state or commercial interests involved? And, as we've seen with the Singaporean offshore fleet, there's ways and means to avoid detection and actors are motivated to do so. I'm doubting this is going to work with so many different forces in play.
It will only take one incident from a maritime point of view for a crisis to just mushroom out of that. One uninsured ship getting seized or assets getting impounded would send shockwaves.
Due to TH-cam's awesome comment engine, I can see you HAVE a reply, but cannot read it myself... so this may be a duplicate answer. The enforcement is via the insurance companies. They won't insure a vessel that won't adhere to the price cap. So the shipper won't accept the Russian cargo in the first place. Because those insurance agencies are mostly based in the EU or Britain, they all agreed to help enforce this. This is why Peter discussed China's option to become their insurer for oil cargoes... and the issues China might face if they try this.
@@markpukey8 Peter mentioned the fact that there will likely be someone who WILL issue insurance on the cargo. Iranians maybe. China if the situation gets desperate. Sure there can be censuring by the NATO countries but it's a toothless measure. It's one of those measures that sounds impressive to the cheap seats but doesn't actually do anything constructive.
@@alexandermckay8594 dont need enforcement, as interest rates go up , oil price will drop. russian urals crude today dropped to 54 dollars a barrel. so the 60 dollar cap is moot. russia will be bankrupt by late spring.
I appreciate what you have to say, Peter. I only wish that hearing what you said was a bit more pleasant to listen to. When you make a video outside with the beautiful scenery behind you, you will apologize for the wind noise. It's usually not too bad, and the video turns out OK. But, when you record, at what I assume is your home studio, the tinny echo is becoming annoying. Please put a rug on the floor or on the wall, anything to help make listening less of a pain. Sorry to be a gripe, I'll shut up now. Thank you.
I think that another issue with "alternate" or self insurance by the Russians or Chinese, is will a claim get paid out? Unless there is a bond escrowed with some trusted neutral party (who?), then a claimant would have to depend on the Russian or Chinese legal system to get paid. Not a comfortable position.
russian urals dropped to 54 dollars a barrel today. as interest rates rise to bring down inflation, its only gonna drop lower. russia is finished and will be bankrupt.
It's almost like Europe and the US are run by a generally superior sort of people who don't take cultural pride in stealing from business partners. Why, you might even call them supreme.
How is OPEC going to change the supply infrastructure coming out of Russia? Can OPEC replace those several million barrels of oil per day at the same price to Europe?
There's an obvious sense of irony in Peter's closing statement. The geopolitical situation in the 1930s led to World War 2. 'Fun' isn't quite how I'd couch that, but each to his own. I don't see there being a huge world conflagration, because very shortly there will be no country that is a serious threat to the United States who will be the only global superpower left standing. Rather, I see an outbreak of many longstanding regional tensions turning into brushfire wars. Whether the Americans, in their guise of NATO, or on their own decide to involve themselves will be based entirely on whether it servers their need to do so. Obviously, when these conflicts break out, one side or the other will court the U.S. to come in on their side. This is where having a stable and thoughtful POTUS will come in useful.
Correct me if I’m wrong but in 07 or there abouts when gas prices jumped up so high. Crude was 143/barrel. Give or take. I haven’t seen the price get that high yet. But we are and or have been paying much more than that. Also would like your thoughts on the massive price differences. At the pump for diesel fuel. Truck stops tend to be 50 cents higher than a store just off the interstate. It seams like price gouging to me at this point
China recently invented a way to skip ASML. The equivalent is saying America will no longer sell China the wagon wheel after the auto has been invented.
1930s to1980s had regulated oil n gas in the usa.. we did quite well during those years.. deregulation made oil go from 20 dollars a barrel to 100 dollars a barrel.. and made a FEW traders rich and most westerners poor
Peter, I've been keeping up with your uploads since the videos which were unlisted. I sincerely appreciate and admire what you do. But my god haha every video makes me feel a bit like the world is burning hotter and more rapidly. Its almost amusing but scary in a way. Im from Latvia so this one hit a bit close to home... Thanks though keep doing you you are great at it!
For those of us not as up to speed with 1930's economic patterns, could you be a bit more specific as to what you were alluding to? The only thing that comes to mind is how 1930's economics set the stage for WW2, particularly the crushing debt burden faced by the Wiemar republic. Is this what you are alluding to and if so, then which country or countries would be in the role of Germany? The obvious conclusion is Russia, but it lacks the industrial capacity and demographics that Germany had to call in leading up to the war.
When I hear Peter my first thought is were going back to GOLD. It makes sense, every country has it ( to a certain extent). All major international federal banks have been buying alot if it since 2005 and present. Time to go old school .
ahh, yes, the common bond villain trope of using a slightly distorted world map as a logo, as seen in such movies as none, but commonly seen in real life geopolitical organisations, such as the UN. maybe touch grass from time to time.
@@justanaverageguy912 Ah, yes, the left-brained nerd with zero imagination and who can only talk about things she's personally seen before. If you ever get invited to a party, I'm sure you'll be life the of it.
State piracy is not going to happen. It would trigger wars, and everybody knows that. Japan blocking the street of Malaka ? Good luck with China. The US is too cowardly to face Russia or China directly.
We've all been told to think that Japan attacked the U,S "by surprise, for no reason" in 1941-12, but if you just look at the timeline of events, it's obvious that it's a narrative manufactured for war time propaganda. 1939-09, Germany Invaded Poland 1939-09, Britain declared war on Germany. 1940-07, "Export Control Act", by the U.S. halted shipments of airplanes, parts, machine tools, aviation gasoline to Japan. An embargo was extended to materials essential to airplane manufacture and to plans, plants, and technical information for the production of high-quality aviation gasoline. 1941-07, U.S froze JP assets in the US, bringing commercial relations to an effective end. One week later FDR embargoed export of all grades of oil in commercial flow to JP. (in 1940, Japan's dependence on US Oil = 80% , and Dutch oil = 13%) 1941-10-16, U.S embargo “on all exports of scrap iron and steel to destinations other than Britain and the nations of the W.Hemisphere.” The British and Dutch followed, embargoing exports to JP from their colonies in Asia. 1941-12, FDR acts all shocked and outraged, to getting attacked (on a military target, and more than 2 years since the start of war with Germany).
I believe the point is Insurance. Big EU-US based multinationals are the heart of the insurance business. And If you don't have Insurance they won't let you sail through the heart of Turkey's biggest city (every couple of years a ship misses a turn and crashes into very expensive realestate plus a tanker fire a decade or so ago) or Egypt's key economic and strategic asset (remember the global consequences of one ship getting stuck?)
Go and do some research on the start of WW2 and look at US relations with Japan before WW2. That may enlighten you a little. The US did sanctions on Japan because they were expanding in the pacific and Asia major. Japan invaded China and other countries. US then put oil embargoes and trade embargo's on Japan. It was a series of economic moves that lead to Japan striking the US in the middle of WW2.
As an Austrian myself, consider this more of a red herring. These "Reichsbürger" are a clown group, usually elder, retired people, having watched too many conspiracy theories and wanting back some sort of monarchy. Sometimes they print their own currency and passports and declare themself king. Do they hoard weapons and form militias - not really. But two days ago, a refugee from Eritrea stabbed one 14 year old school girl to death and wounded another 13 year old school girl on their way to school. This happened in a small town (~5600 inhabitants) with a refugee population of ~1300. In 2019 a group rape of a minor happened already in the asylum center. This news made the headlines and put the government on the spot, because just the week before the SPD promoted easier granting of citizenship for asylum seekers. So, now this story has been displaced by a so called "coup" attempt.
Peter, what are some other factors that may lead to the demise of the single oil price? Would it not be better for the Russians to just sell - even at $60 or some other price outside their control - than to let the wells be destroyed from lack or use?
This EU policy is basically a conditional price ceiling. Interestingly, Mr. Zeihan's sole concern about the pipeline freezing is the cost of repairing the pipeline. His analysis suggests there are no costs to the environment or opportunity costs to Russia.
If there is a global energy crash you will see real environmental damage then through war, coal mining and cheap rough industries pop up all over the world. The economics of the world will mean all out cultural failure and environmental destruction like you have never seen before.
Peter, my man, your a God and you have helped me make decisions based on how the world falling apart...........but put some acoustic tiles up or more furniture or carpet or all of the above to fix the echo in this room.
Zeihan continually asserts that the US is withdrawing from "protecting the global shipping lanes", and I've yet to see any evidence for that claim. It's repeated so often that it's become a given, but where is the proof? If anything, international (at least among "Western" nations) commitment to open trade is increasing.
CHEAP OIL is win for the countries buying it, which are often countries without deep pockets that are being hurt by the down stream consequences. Plus .. remembering the whole Turkish Government owned Halk Bank getting in trouble for massive circumvention of sanctions on Iran fuss. Turkey is always on Turkey's side. It sounds good but then you discover no-one trusts you. Turkey has had a bromance of convenience with Putin's Russia but from Syria to Armenia-Azerbaijan they've been consistantly on the opposite side of pretty much every geo-strategic conflict since the (first) Crimean War. Plus a decline of Russian influence in the former Soviet space is seriously in their interests.
I like that these videos are getting longer, I would honestly love to hear peter in long form discussions with other people in his field
His ego couldn’t handle criticism
@@ugiswrong I have to push back on this a significant bit. Peter, why perceived by some, has put his ideas out there in book and in MULTIPLE videos throughout the decade (plus). In his books and now in these shorts. What have we, those of us commenting here, put out there? How many blogs have we written, to say nothing of having written books. I like Peter sticking his finger in the eye of my perspectives and challenging us to think about and view the world in a new lens. I suspect Peter could slap each of us into intellectual oblivion half his brain tied behind his back. If you view that as an ego thing, then post a link to your books, your blog, your videos on this subject. Ego? Yup, he has one and I appreciate that ego driving him to post a new video and write another book. Books by the way, I have read. Every single one of them. I will wait for your links.
@@ugiswrong shut up
@@ugiswrong shut your pie hole
@@ugiswrong what's wrong with you
I imagine that the Chinese are absolutely furious about having to pay less for their oil imports. I expect them to object loudly, cooperate quietly, and pocket their discount happily. But angrily.
Confucius says: scream very loud while commiting daylight robbery.
What makes you think China is going to pay less?
It gives India and China ability to negotiate Russian price down whenever worldwide price rises. Since oil products are ultimately fungible this will ultimately tend to mitigate overall oil price spikes & OPEC pricing control. This will tend to discourage bringing new oil sources online however, so it raises the risk of a future oil crunch, but I would guess that distortion is viewed as acceptable in the short term.
Ive said it a million times before. Contrary to common belief on the “no limits” partnership China has with Russia, China only cares about China. At the end of the day, Xi would gladly throw Putin under a bus if it meant it would enrich his own party. So yes. To your sarcasm, China is soooooo furious about the cheap gas they are getting from Russia.
@@juanzingarello4005 Yes, and India only cares about India. There is zero chance of a united Russia-China-India front to oppose “the West” beyond the occasional photo op. Far too much self dealing and conflicts of interest.
I love when Peter is unsure about things, it is way more informative that way
Well it wasn't so U.S. centric, apart from the Navy convoy bit, which I don't quite get, the U.S. is taking a more introspective role but its military budget is going to be the same, so all the money will be spent on navel gazing in their own backyard, to me it doesn't stack up, there is a big hole in this logic, and it will be in the defence budget. Natural selection = Use it or lose it!?!
@@thomasherrin6798
The US spends about 3 trillion per year on its welfare state and it has done that so as to lessen the effects of outsourcing from US manufacturing. A good proportion of that manufacturing is going to be returning to those traditional areas of manufacturing in the US which is going to lessen the need for a welfare state.
The US military budget is not just about fielding a sizeable military force it is about a force that has far more firepower than anybody else out there. The US will still have a global presence but it will be in context of its own interests which is going to be the similar position the US had before WW2.
@@bighands69 The big question here though is, can we even turn many of our workers around? Peter correctly talks about lack of high end technical workers, but we don't talk about the simple fact that a MASSIVE (and growing) group of people in the US have zero work ethic to hold such a job. I hope I am wrong, but the welfare state may radically impede us, when we need to "retool" citizens to factory jobs.
Peter being unsure is definitely preferrable to him being confidently incorrect. I'm glad he's discussing a relevant topic today and not a historical topic.
@@Cas8228 It's a complex issue, but ultimately everyone gets "hungry" and most "hungry" people will eventually work. The solution is to ensure they have no other option unless their parents want to enable them forever.
"This is unprecedented in many ways so I really don't know how this is going to play out. But... (proceeds to lay out facts and speculation to the best of his ability)" Ok, my respect for Peter (which was already decently high) just shot up 1000%. This is how to be a public intellectual, folks.
Peter has a combination of things he’s good at, starting with storytelling, which is most important. He also has a form grip on the facts and details. And he pairs all thing with a willingness to editorialize and speculate. It all wraps up in a package that’s, informative, entertaining and a bit provocative or controversial. It’s awesome
One thing you didn't touch on is how do the other OPEC countries feel about this. Surely they're concerned that the power to set price will be taken from them altogether at some point in the future and are will collectively oppose this.
None of the OPEC countries are really stable economic engines. That means they will not have he military tools to actually go out into the world and force their will.
Saudi Arabia as a military force is based entirely on US technological systems. What many do not understand is in the middle East Saudi Arabia and Israel are going to be a partnership where the Israelis are going to be the senior partner to that. But all goes back to the US. SO while Saudi Arabia can play politics with certain US presidents in the long run they will still be under that umbrella.
@@bighands69 Actually, this is not accurate.
1. OPEC can set who they sell to. Cutting Europe off, raising prices, or reducing barrelage isn't impossible.
2. Saudia Arabia has been diversifying their arms for years now. Part of the consternation the USA has with them pertains to purchases from Russia.
They won't have a choice because Europe and USA is going away from oil in warp speed. Oil price will keep falling further.
@@VertigoX26 the Saudis have plenty of hardware, but what they don’t have is the skill or ability to use it. The latest and greatest military tech doesn’t mean diddly if your military personnel are a bunch of slapd*cks.
@Martins going away from oil?
I really like his talks. They're so informative with info I can't seem to get anywhere else. He's the kind of guy you'd like to spend an afternoon with.
MIMO SISO FIFO LIFO
Peter you deserve millions of subscribers. Sharing your stuff as often as I can
As a long-time watcher, appreciate that you touched on your prior points made about the permafrost impact on oil flows - was curious about getting an update on that. Also liked the level of depth you went into on this one. Will continue to look forward to these every day while they last!
Well that was a very interesting analysis of the situation, explained way better than any other channel I've watched on this specific topic.
Thanks for the info: a lot to know, but important to know!
An additional thing with the cap: it facilitates speculators to short the Urals crude because any losses are limited by the cap. This is one reason Ural crude is and will trade substantially below the 60 USD cap, currently closer to 50.
For all those people who want to see the US Dollar be eliminated as the world's reserve currency...good luck with that. Dislocated markets will be a contributing case to a world in disarray. I would also like to see Canada-Mexico-USA become the new OPEC and create the biggest energy independence fortress the world has ever seen.
Canada, Mexico and US have their own oil and industry to back it. The problem is that Europe thought it was more important to build welfare states, lecture America about morality and do nothing in the world.
Europe is now on a fish hook and may end up on the dinner plate at some point.
There is a board game that has a "future history" wherein Canada, Mexico and the United States federate into a single political entity called the "North American Combine" or just the "Combine" for short. Weird how facts can sometime look like their about to emulate fiction.
Too much ESG insanity for energy investments. Pain will be required first.
I was worried a little about Yuan taking over.
But CCP seizing business's (destroying Jack Ma) and Russia refusing to return Airplanes.
Well, that is the end of that story. No dictatorship backed currency is going to become the world reserve currency.
@@CalmAsCake Spot on...there is still NOT enough blood on the emergency room floor yet.
Thank you Peter. For your generosity and insight and articulation. You elevate the conversation with your analysis, humor, and kindness.
Peter, I don't know my "1930's strategy and economic patterns". And I am sure that a bunch of us don't! Please do another video to enlighten us. P.S. I absolutely love your videos. (And your books, of which I now have two so far.)
The Great Depression and ww2
Could also be oil was shipped by little blue barrels, as a product, I assume would be insurable as cargo apposed to a tanker. That's why we use BBL as an oil measure a blue barrel.
Thanks once again for your skilfull and enjoyable renduring of the facts.
Love Peter zeihan. Always updates us so well.
Thanks Peter!! Kickass as usual!!
Thanks for that happy thought......
Very informative, good explanation.
You mentioned the 1930s but the only thing I can think of is smoot-hawley. Is that what you mean? You shouldn't have left that dangling.
Thanks Peter.
Thanks, Peter. That was very informative.
Hey Peter what are you getting lackadaisical,? Staying the same place for 2 days. You're an amazing guy seriously keep up the great work
Fascinating Insights…
Can you elaborate on the 1930’s strategy and economic patterns in another video? Maybe some theoretical future scenarios?
My guess is that he was referring to how Germany and Japan invaded other countries to capture their oil fields
It isn't touched on enough. . . 1930's Europe made the world of today (even if indirectly).
I think that he was alluding to WW2
@@mann8098 He was alluding to Japan making a desperate push for Indonesia to secure its oil and then realizing they needed to prevent an American response due to the US controlled Phillipines being directly between Japan and the Indonesian archipelago, so they needed to destroy the US fleet at Pearl Harbor pre-emptively, thus beginning WW2. We're headed back to a world of regional powers vying for influence now that aircraft carriers mean absolutely nothing as security guarantors for at least the next 10 years (hypersonic sea skimming missiles).
Bargaining with oil; like America used it to pressure Japan or supply the Commonwealth or how Germany made a deal with the USSR to free it up for war with the West.
Feeding the TH-cam algorithm. Informative video. Thanks.
Appreciate your out of box thinking.
The insurance angle is very interesting and creates new opportunities despite the new risks.
After all that is what insurance is for.
Excellent camera and lighting work as usual, but this time the audio is echo-y and miscalibrated a bit. The diction is still clear.
I wonder if its caused by the room itself, high ceilings can cause a pretty big echoing problem that the camera or microphone wouldn't really be able to fix. It also makes it hard to detect for anyone accustomed to sitting in the room before uploading
A comment for the algorithm and a thank you to you sir. Always interesting and thought provoking.
Always fun. Thanks
Pick up a pair of ATS sound panels and maybe a thick throw rug and the office echo will be mitigated.
Thanks Peter, insightful as always. You are a legend !
It is simply wrong that Rusia can Switch off the oil fields in Bakhirisan. The problem is not just freezing of oil. Once they stop pumping the capillaries in the Rock are clogging and when they try to start pumpen later the flow will be much lower.
56 seconds in and you already explain this better than the MSM and the actual reason for being able to pull this off, something completely missing in their reporting
MSM are nothing but advertising agencies for their corporate owners, co-opted by the Soviets back in the 1950s at the latest. In other words, you get multiple layers of lies and distractions from reality, based on sensationalist headlines and hook stories to keep you watching so the advertisers can promote garbage products, and editors can slip in communist ideology all at the same time.
Always great knowledge and insights and FUN! Thank you Peter.
Very interesting topic, as is the new field (at least to me) of 'geopolitics'. I saw your recent discussion at the Commonwealth club.
P.S. I will be ordering your boo 'The End is Just the Beginning. Perhaps it will explain the how/why of a diminishing international maritime security, and what its parallels are to the 1930s.
Please research Smoot-Hawley and all the ramifications that happened due to the passage of this bill. It is too long for me to type here but this is what Peter is referring to.
9:12 Peter “That’s going away” Zeihan 😂
Another great job.
Good video Peter.
This was really informative, would have never known all the oil distribution lines within Russia and geopolitical events than could potentially arise
Good luck with that price cap. Lmao.
Can I suggest you to use a tie mic indoor? It would help a lot to eliminate the very reverberated room ambience. Thanks a million for your fantastic analysis.
I would pay good money to have Peter explain other stuff in my life that I don’t understand this succinctly
Thank you for the information.
I don't know who manages the social media, but keep up the good work
It'd be interesting to see a video or series about your job. Do you have a specialty? What kind of consulting do you do and what kind of projects? How much public data do you use vs any other obscure datasets that are maybe your secret sauce? Etc.
The big thing is enforcement. Who's going to do it and what can they do to those potentially caught? Is it state or commercial interests involved? And, as we've seen with the Singaporean offshore fleet, there's ways and means to avoid detection and actors are motivated to do so. I'm doubting this is going to work with so many different forces in play.
It will only take one incident from a maritime point of view for a crisis to just mushroom out of that. One uninsured ship getting seized or assets getting impounded would send shockwaves.
Due to TH-cam's awesome comment engine, I can see you HAVE a reply, but cannot read it myself... so this may be a duplicate answer.
The enforcement is via the insurance companies. They won't insure a vessel that won't adhere to the price cap. So the shipper won't accept the Russian cargo in the first place. Because those insurance agencies are mostly based in the EU or Britain, they all agreed to help enforce this.
This is why Peter discussed China's option to become their insurer for oil cargoes... and the issues China might face if they try this.
@@markpukey8 Peter mentioned the fact that there will likely be someone who WILL issue insurance on the cargo. Iranians maybe. China if the situation gets desperate. Sure there can be censuring by the NATO countries but it's a toothless measure. It's one of those measures that sounds impressive to the cheap seats but doesn't actually do anything constructive.
@@alexandermckay8594 dont need enforcement, as interest rates go up , oil price will drop. russian urals crude today dropped to 54 dollars a barrel. so the 60 dollar cap is moot. russia will be bankrupt by late spring.
looks like this will as well trigger a problem for OPEC - good! This cartel needs to be crushed asap
Glad to see you are getting to spend a little time at home.
I can really see the supply fragmentation playing out as Peter outlines. Wow - scary conclusion.
Can't wait to see the unintended consequences!
I appreciate what you have to say, Peter. I only wish that hearing what you said was a bit more pleasant to listen to. When you make a video outside with the beautiful scenery behind you, you will apologize for the wind noise. It's usually not too bad, and the video turns out OK. But, when you record, at what I assume is your home studio, the tinny echo is becoming annoying. Please put a rug on the floor or on the wall, anything to help make listening less of a pain. Sorry to be a gripe, I'll shut up now.
Thank you.
@peter zeihan it dont matter russian urals crude fell to 54 dollars a barrel today. its only gonna drop lower as interest rates rise.
perhaps it dropped because of the impending sanctions?
Letters of Marque make a come back?
I think that another issue with "alternate" or self insurance by the Russians or Chinese, is will a claim get paid out? Unless there is a bond escrowed with some trusted neutral party (who?), then a claimant would have to depend on the Russian or Chinese legal system to get paid. Not a comfortable position.
russian urals dropped to 54 dollars a barrel today. as interest rates rise to bring down inflation, its only gonna drop lower. russia is finished and will be bankrupt.
It's almost like Europe and the US are run by a generally superior sort of people who don't take cultural pride in stealing from business partners. Why, you might even call them supreme.
That's a background best used for threatening the un with a giant space laser
Sure $60 a barrel, and here's a $20 million pencil in another purchase...?
Why would the chinese and indians go out of their way to pay significantly more for the same oil?
You missed to analyze the interference of the OPEC+ .
How is OPEC going to change the supply infrastructure coming out of Russia?
Can OPEC replace those several million barrels of oil per day at the same price to Europe?
Wooo Zeihan Zeihan Zeihan Zeihan woo!!!! You’re the man Peter, hope you’ve been enjoying your week so far
morning Pete
Education on 1930's oil please.
There's an obvious sense of irony in Peter's closing statement.
The geopolitical situation in the 1930s led to World War 2.
'Fun' isn't quite how I'd couch that, but each to his own.
I don't see there being a huge world conflagration, because very shortly there will be no country that is a serious threat to the United States who will be the only global superpower left standing. Rather, I see an outbreak of many longstanding regional tensions turning into brushfire wars.
Whether the Americans, in their guise of NATO, or on their own decide to involve themselves will be based entirely on whether it servers their need to do so.
Obviously, when these conflicts break out, one side or the other will court the U.S. to come in on their side.
This is where having a stable and thoughtful POTUS will come in useful.
the map behind you does not have New Zealand :D
No great loss.
@@tilapiadave3234 Perhaps, but Tasmania is also AWOL
@@adamrobinson8620 AHHHH dang we need our Tassie brothers as a constant warning regarding inbreeding :)
@@tilapiadave3234 It is if you watch rugby.
Correct me if I’m wrong but in 07 or there abouts when gas prices jumped up so high. Crude was 143/barrel. Give or take. I haven’t seen the price get that high yet. But we are and or have been paying much more than that. Also would like your thoughts on the massive price differences. At the pump for diesel fuel. Truck stops tend to be 50 cents higher than a store just off the interstate. It seams like price gouging to me at this point
Love the longer videos. Here's to Peter Zeihan, the 1st TH-camr president! (I hope)
So interesting.
Isn't the Chinese chip ban directly analogous to the Japanese oil and scrap iron bans of the 1930's?
Sort of but hard to know if it would exactly play out the same.
China recently invented a way to skip ASML. The equivalent is saying America will no longer sell China the wagon wheel after the auto has been invented.
1930s to1980s had regulated oil n gas in the usa.. we did quite well during those years.. deregulation made oil go from 20 dollars a barrel to 100 dollars a barrel..
and made a FEW traders rich and most westerners poor
When you take efficiency and inflation into account those are about the same prices.
They can't afford not to sell.
Peter, I've been keeping up with your uploads since the videos which were unlisted. I sincerely appreciate and admire what you do. But my god haha every video makes me feel a bit like the world is burning hotter and more rapidly. Its almost amusing but scary in a way. Im from Latvia so this one hit a bit close to home... Thanks though keep doing you you are great at it!
The same for me, those videos are informative, but I take them with a grain of salt. Greetings from Kraków.
For those of us not as up to speed with 1930's economic patterns, could you be a bit more specific as to what you were alluding to? The only thing that comes to mind is how 1930's economics set the stage for WW2, particularly the crushing debt burden faced by the Wiemar republic. Is this what you are alluding to and if so, then which country or countries would be in the role of Germany? The obvious conclusion is Russia, but it lacks the industrial capacity and demographics that Germany had to call in leading up to the war.
When I hear Peter my first thought is were going back to GOLD. It makes sense, every country has it ( to a certain extent). All major international federal banks have been buying alot if it since 2005 and present. Time to go old school .
Another map missing New Zealand in the background!
Will someone share something about 1930s? Have no idea...
Did Peter imply ww2 or not？...
Ancient Chinese curse: “ May you live in interesting times”
Awesome
Nice Bond villain logo on the wall there.
ahh, yes, the common bond villain trope of using a slightly distorted world map as a logo, as seen in such movies as none, but commonly seen in real life geopolitical organisations, such as the UN. maybe touch grass from time to time.
@@justanaverageguy912 Ah, yes, the left-brained nerd with zero imagination and who can only talk about things she's personally seen before.
If you ever get invited to a party, I'm sure you'll be life the of it.
Sooooo new age of pirates/privateers? but with aircraft carriers?
State piracy is not going to happen. It would trigger wars, and everybody knows that. Japan blocking the street of Malaka ? Good luck with China. The US is too cowardly to face Russia or China directly.
WoW Peter, "what a cliff hanger" 1930 economic profile, "to be Continued"! Tune in "tomorrow" to hear the exciting radio broadcast and conclusion! LOL
I enjoy these talks. I also think it is hilarious that the worst audio is always from his home office.
Uh, you must be new here if you don't remember ol' Peter "Air Show" Zeihan.
We've all been told to think that Japan attacked the U,S "by surprise, for no reason" in 1941-12, but if you just look at the timeline of events, it's obvious that it's a narrative manufactured for war time propaganda.
1939-09, Germany Invaded Poland
1939-09, Britain declared war on Germany.
1940-07, "Export Control Act", by the U.S. halted shipments of airplanes, parts, machine tools, aviation gasoline to Japan. An embargo was extended to materials essential to airplane manufacture and to plans, plants, and technical information for the production of high-quality aviation gasoline.
1941-07, U.S froze JP assets in the US, bringing commercial relations to an effective end.
One week later FDR embargoed export of all grades of oil in commercial flow to JP.
(in 1940, Japan's dependence on US Oil = 80% , and Dutch oil = 13%)
1941-10-16, U.S embargo “on all exports of scrap iron and steel to destinations other than Britain and the nations of the W.Hemisphere.” The British and Dutch followed, embargoing exports to JP from their colonies in Asia.
1941-12, FDR acts all shocked and outraged, to getting attacked (on a military target, and more than 2 years since the start of war with Germany).
The suez and turkish straits are not part of the EU so how will it be enforced there? The cap is set by EU and US/UK
I believe the point is Insurance. Big EU-US based multinationals are the heart of the insurance business. And If you don't have Insurance they won't let you sail through the heart of Turkey's biggest city (every couple of years a ship misses a turn and crashes into very expensive realestate plus a tanker fire a decade or so ago) or Egypt's key economic and strategic asset (remember the global consequences of one ship getting stuck?)
Russian Urals crude oil was around $57 a barrel in the second week of December
I value your insights. i'm also grateful to be an American.
Or even an Australian!
как и я Русским.
I seem to recall an east Asian nation that started a bit of a kerfuffle regarding oil embargos, if anyone is interested in what Peter was alluding to.
OK, for those of us who are unaware of 1930 strategy, please enlighten us.
Go and do some research on the start of WW2 and look at US relations with Japan before WW2. That may enlighten you a little.
The US did sanctions on Japan because they were expanding in the pacific and Asia major. Japan invaded China and other countries. US then put oil embargoes and trade embargo's on Japan. It was a series of economic moves that lead to Japan striking the US in the middle of WW2.
Russia mainly sells their distillates. It's more profitable to have their refineries crack their crude then sell diesel and bunker fuel.
Hi Peter, what do you think of the Germany news about a coup?
As an Austrian myself, consider this more of a red herring.
These "Reichsbürger" are a clown group, usually elder, retired people, having watched too many conspiracy theories and wanting back some sort of monarchy. Sometimes they print their own currency and passports and declare themself king. Do they hoard weapons and form militias - not really.
But two days ago, a refugee from Eritrea stabbed one 14 year old school girl to death and wounded another 13 year old school girl on their way to school.
This happened in a small town (~5600 inhabitants) with a refugee population of ~1300.
In 2019 a group rape of a minor happened already in the asylum center.
This news made the headlines and put the government on the spot, because just the week before the SPD promoted easier granting of citizenship for asylum seekers.
So, now this story has been displaced by a so called "coup" attempt.
It is either a political overreaction to crazy acrtivist or it is a real coup d'etat.
Peter, what are some other factors that may lead to the demise of the single oil price?
Would it not be better for the Russians to just sell - even at $60 or some other price outside their control - than to let the wells be destroyed from lack or use?
@@b.jellis Yea into ships in the Baltic sea who will take it to another approved ship with European insurance . Business as usual !
as interest rates rise to bring down inflation under 2 percent. russia will go bankrupt. russian urals crude hit 54 dollars a barrel today.
This EU policy is basically a conditional price ceiling. Interestingly, Mr. Zeihan's sole concern about the pipeline freezing is the cost of repairing the pipeline. His analysis suggests there are no costs to the environment or opportunity costs to Russia.
If there is a global energy crash you will see real environmental damage then through war, coal mining and cheap rough industries pop up all over the world.
The economics of the world will mean all out cultural failure and environmental destruction like you have never seen before.
Peter, my man, your a God and you have helped me make decisions based on how the world falling apart...........but put some acoustic tiles up or more furniture or carpet or all of the above to fix the echo in this room.
Zeihan continually asserts that the US is withdrawing from "protecting the global shipping lanes", and I've yet to see any evidence for that claim. It's repeated so often that it's become a given, but where is the proof? If anything, international (at least among "Western" nations) commitment to open trade is increasing.
I love Peter, I just wish he'd hire a sound guy.
The booming echo and terrible audio in these recordings really takes away from the content.
It's gonna be "Terry and the Pirates" time.
Peter, please also share good news, Is there any?
Jesus is coming back again...soon
Turkey is squealing under huge inflation… anything to position Erdokan as a strong leader will be used to keep him in power.
Never let a crisis go to waste.
CHEAP OIL is win for the countries buying it, which are often countries without deep pockets that are being hurt by the down stream consequences. Plus .. remembering the whole Turkish Government owned Halk Bank getting in trouble for massive circumvention of sanctions on Iran fuss. Turkey is always on Turkey's side. It sounds good but then you discover no-one trusts you. Turkey has had a bromance of convenience with Putin's Russia but from Syria to Armenia-Azerbaijan they've been consistantly on the opposite side of pretty much every geo-strategic conflict since the (first) Crimean War. Plus a decline of Russian influence in the former Soviet space is seriously in their interests.
It seems that a price cap doesn't work.
So the end of the "petro-dollar"? And what will be the impact albeit indirectly on the US?