The only people who bought into it, were those looking for any good news for Harris, or those who just took the medias word at face value. She is acting like it was a surprised but every single indicator there was to have showed she was wrong well before the election, yet ABC's FiveThirtyEight focused on gassing her up with articles like "Ann Selzer Is The Best Pollster In Politics" instead of taking a sober look at how statistically bizarre her poll was.
Camilla's campaign went into 1.5 billion dollars worth of debt I'm sure they threw this little looser some f****** jump change for faking polls in Iowa
I think she’s afraid of Kash Patel coming after her. When you let your hate for a candidate cloud your poll results you find yourself in a place like this. 😂
If TDS INFECTED PSYCHO LUNATIC UNHINGED MANIAC FRAUD Allan Lichtman just followed his 13 KEYS to The White House, he would be a GENIUS! Someone found 9 FALSE KEYS when TRUMP only needed 6 FALSE KEYS to become POTUS! 🤣 🤭 😆 🙄 🤦♂ ⤵ th-cam.com/video/ieJp9vBrHp0/w-d-xo.html
If TDS INFECTED PSYCHO LUNATIC UNHINGED MANIAC FRAUD Allan Lichtman just followed his 13 KEYS to The White House, he would be a GENIUS! Someone found 9 FALSE KEYS when TRUMP only needed 6 FALSE KEYS to become POTUS! 🤣 🤭 😆 🙄 🤦♂
I agree. The professors keys are right. His judging of which way they fell was suspect by his bias!! When Biden dropped out he immediately and angrily said the Dems lost 3 keys by that very action. 2 days later after careful consideration he said the keys still leaned democratic. He talked himself out of his own metrics because he was so biased.
She’s full of it, she knows exactly what went wrong. Simply put she ignored every other poll that showed Trump ahead and did not factor any other poll except hers. She let her personal bias and emotional insecurities get in the way of fact and that’s what happened
I know! Doesn’t she hear herself? Nothing very significant happened in the last days before the election. Thinking that the very insignificant things that happened pre-election day swung Iowa by 16 POINTS is just absurd and arrogant.
"we don't know"...... After more than 1 month and you still don't know what went wrong? Assuming no bias and corruption (big assumption but lets just assume she is not corrupted), this is the most likely reason: She simply did not do her part in ensuring the data collected is reliable. She did not use any specific sampling method (just simple random sampling with land line phone) and also did not test the data reliability to eliminate outliers and sampling errors. Essentially, it is down to luck and only luck for her to get the "right" samples (voters). The fact that she is a self-described "data girl" is a f**cking joke. Any statistician, data scientist or econometrician can instantly see the issue with her poll.
STOLEN ELECTION IS EASY TO SAY WHEN THE OTHER SIDE WINS EH? YET THE CONVICTED CRIMINAL AND THE BILLIONAIRE (MUSK) WHO IS FACING FEDERAL CASES FOR HIS COMPANIES WOULDN'T CHEAT. NO WAY!
Anyone that wrong is either A. Completely incompetent or B. Completely partisan and willing to push out such outlandish BS. It one or the other. Shes a Democrat so either is plausible. Im going with B
Hmmm, your poll goes wildly away from everything that has come before -- wouldn't a thoughtful pollster re-do the poll (using a new sample) and 'confirm' the result?
Publishing that poll was a mistake, man. On its face it didn’t even pass the smell test. Serious analysts could barely hold their laughter when talking about it, it was so bad. She thought she was slick, but that retirement money can get eaten up by attorney’s fees REAL quick and Iowa’s not anti-SLAPP. And then there’s the settlement. Oof.
What is the percentage of people who have a landline? 10 percent? What is the percentage of people who answer an unknown caller call? 5 percent? Her methodology is from last century. Someone put this old cow out to pasture already.
I'm going to assume she is honest and used her best judgment in her polling. She has admittedly had a decent track record before this election. But then her work went terribly wrong. If she is as good as her track record suggests, how is it she cannot in retrospect find the factor which made her go so very, very wrong this one time? That a professional goes very wrong is distressing, but that the pro cannot figure out why is really deeply disturbing. No wonder there are accusations of bias or corruption. The way to kill those off is to explain -- convincingly -- what went wrong.
The interviewer didn’t ask a simple question: were there external factors that affected her result? Btw, She should be invested for election manipulation.
The answer is, that the the DEM's could not get those 11 million (missing Biden votes from 2020) into the polls at 03h00 AM. The Trucks did arrive at different poll stations, with boxes of ballets in the morning, but they turned away when they saw MAGA staff still onsite at the polls watching. These phone videos of the truck arriving and leaving are all posted on X for your review.
Even Harris thought they would still get these 11 million votes in, that is why she waited till the next morning to concede. As Trump said, It was too big to rig.
The videos shows people carrying Ballet Boxes from the truck into the polling station, then walking out with them again. Loading them and then driving off. This time MAGA had people at each polling station, watching what was going on till they closed.
Political analyst need to wake up!! we the people of America stood together and voted, Democrats and political analysts need to get a grip and understand American citizens
Her skewed poll that lost by 13points? Was just Nother piling on by the media in the last days before election to try to get kimala elected!! I tell you, they did a great job, and it had me nervous because they was so relebtless! Then the results started rolling in and it was over before i got my 2nd bucket of popcorn!!😂
I am not buying her excuses. As someone who has participated in polling science and creation (during post-grad), I find her statements dubious at best. Right off the back, her methodology is already flawed (by her own statements). Yes, you want to start out with a pool of poll participants that "look like Iowa." However, that doesn't make someone a likely voter. There is a completely different (albeit scientific) method for creating an accurate "likely voter" pool. In fact, you would first measure just how likely people are to vote (before you even ask the questions about who they will vote for). That data is important -- because it might tell you if one group of XYZ123 demographics (racial/ethnic, gender, age, political self-identity, voter registration [i.e., Republican, Democrat, Green, Libertarian, etc.] and primary issue) is motivated to vote. Did they feel the same in previous elections? What methods did they use to vote (e.g., in-person, by mail, absentee, etc.)? You can quantify that BEFORE you conduct an election poll. Then, you can conduct the poll based upon that more accurate likely voter model. Secondly, Selzer's poll was certainly a major outlier compared with ALL OTHER polls conducted during the same period. This included the candidates' own insider polling data. Yet, Selzer's poll just about went off the deep end of the outlier moniker. The Emerson poll had Trump up by 10 points. Trump won the state by 13 points. That's within the MOE for Emerson (3.4). Selzer's poll was off by 16 points. That's 12.6 points outside the extent of her MOE (3.4). That's horrendous. As for why she got it wrong: We don't have her methodology for THAT poll versus previous polls. However, she obviously overestimated highly motivated Harris voters. I would venture to guess that she overestimated the white, female, young, liberal, Democrats who were more vocally motivated by abortion. This is because white women supported Trump much more than most pollsters expected. This didn't surprise me because polling has long since held that a notable minority (and, at times, majority) of women consider themselves pro-life. Gallup had this number at 41% a couple of years ago -- but 51% in 2016. CNN's exit polling showed 45% of women voted for Trump. I suspect that Iowa was within a few points of that figure. I wonder: How many pro-abortion voters Selzer's polling included? I suspect that there were other factors -- including race/ethnicity -- that contributed to Selzer's polling disaster. This is because most demographic groups shifted toward Trump. However, those numbers weren't particularly large numbers in terms of the groups that live in Iowa. My guess is that they the shifting was off in her polling (which is understandable) but that she oversaturated the motivated Harris supporters -- particularly those motivated by issues (and abortion would be the biggest area in which many polls were wrong). I just think that Selzer might have expected pro-abortion women to show up in force in Iowa in 2024. That just didn't happen in numbers that she might have expected.
Iowa final results: Trump: 56% Harris: 42.7% I can understand being off by a point or two, but to be off by 16 is abysmal. She just ruined any credibility she had with this poll.
Selzer was trading on Polymarket cause when her poll came out, TRUMP probably dropped like 8% in Polymarket 🤣 🤭 😆 🙄 🤦♂ I don't remember the exact amount
It is wonderful to see Trump "spanking" the fake news media, like a daddy disciplining a naughty child. Watching them screaming and rolling around like a kid who's toy was taken from them, is so heartwarming. Finally the adults are back in the house. Who many other polls of hers where wrong, 2020?
She’s a data person?? She missed it by 16 points. She’s a fraud.
I think 19 pts
She just told lies
The data was clear, they offered her enough to retire early. She read the numbers and sold her self out.
1.8 million votes in Iowa. Her error was 310,000 off the mark. This was not a mistake. This was propaganda.
Keep wokeness and deMOCruusssaaayy out of Iowa, America is a Republic.
Her poll gave dems so much copium
The only people who bought into it, were those looking for any good news for Harris, or those who just took the medias word at face value. She is acting like it was a surprised but every single indicator there was to have showed she was wrong well before the election, yet ABC's FiveThirtyEight focused on gassing her up with articles like "Ann Selzer Is The Best Pollster In Politics" instead of taking a sober look at how statistically bizarre her poll was.
That is why she lied and committed fraud and election interference. Her ridiculous poll was too push Democrats.
C’mon lady - just admit to the crime and get Joe to pardon you or release your data.
Can someone check her bank transactions, please. That will explain her efforts 100%.
This is how Kamala went into debt
Cash 💰 under the table payment for services rendered
@@torstimyle1355😂😂😂
nah, those are true believers, they do it for free
Camilla's campaign went into 1.5 billion dollars worth of debt I'm sure they threw this little looser some f****** jump change for faking polls in Iowa
This woman is DE LU LU . Her clear bias was the mistake in her poll. And she is coping
Her goal was to make voters not turn out by showing a 47 to 44 point she lost by 16 points she's f****** retarded cuz she's a dumb woman
You were paid off. We aren't stupid
If you believe what you are saying, you are stupid.
Hope your payday was worth throwing it all away.
So true
The only logical conclusion is that she tried swaying voters, trying to help Democrats.
Claro que si. Pero no salió como ella quizo.
Election Interference = CRIME!
Trump broke her
Imagine throwing your career away for one push poll
She got money from Harris campaign may be 🤔
Not only your career but your family name
I hope you were well compensated for deliberately destroying your reputation. Shameful.
I'm sure her "foundation" received a hefty donation or pledge 😊
Without a single shred of evidence Selzer predicted Harris would win by a landslide and she didn’t 🤣
This has echos of 2016
Cheaters gonna cheat.
Keep wokeness and deMOCruusssaaayy out of Iowa, America is a Republic.
She was so proud of herself and felt like such a celebrity after releasing that poll.
Like an arson that calls the fire department. Hero.
😂😂😂so true
I think she’s afraid of Kash Patel coming after her. When you let your hate for a candidate cloud your poll results you find yourself in a place like this. 😂
She likely took one of those cheques the Harris campaign was handing out.
Hate? Its was her love for money.
@ you may put it that way. The media elites and their pollster buddies were on a mission to stop the orange man but failed miserably.
She should be scared!!!
She speaks of people going after her without 'evidence'...isn't her whole profession speculation without evidence? 🤦♂️
First off, the qualifications to be a Pollster is: 1. Be NON Biased! 2. Don't be a Democrat! 3. Cut all ties with Joy Reid, Psaki, and The View!
We all know that she let her bias influence her analysis just like that idiot professor and his keys…🤦♂️
If TDS INFECTED PSYCHO LUNATIC UNHINGED MANIAC FRAUD Allan Lichtman just followed his 13 KEYS to The White House, he would be a GENIUS! Someone found 9 FALSE KEYS when TRUMP only needed 6 FALSE KEYS to become POTUS! 🤣 🤭 😆 🙄 🤦♂
⤵
th-cam.com/video/ieJp9vBrHp0/w-d-xo.html
If TDS INFECTED PSYCHO LUNATIC UNHINGED MANIAC FRAUD Allan Lichtman just followed his 13 KEYS to The White House, he would be a GENIUS! Someone found 9 FALSE KEYS when TRUMP only needed 6 FALSE KEYS to become POTUS! 🤣 🤭 😆 🙄 🤦♂
I agree. The professors keys are right. His judging of which way they fell was suspect by his bias!!
When Biden dropped out he immediately and angrily said the Dems lost 3 keys by that very action. 2 days later after careful consideration he said the keys still leaned democratic. He talked himself out of his own metrics because he was so biased.
you mean keysus Christ?
@@bobsands3557Lmao, that’s blasphemy against him
Ann...you're FIRED!
She’s full of it, she knows exactly what went wrong. Simply put she ignored every other poll that showed Trump ahead and did not factor any other poll except hers. She let her personal bias and emotional insecurities get in the way of fact and that’s what happened
Things happened to swing it 18 points…ma’am you did sloppy work own it
I know! Doesn’t she hear herself? Nothing very significant happened in the last days before the election. Thinking that the very insignificant things that happened pre-election day swung Iowa by 16 POINTS is just absurd and arrogant.
Amazing how democrats bought into this iowa poll
Because they didn’t have anything, they were grasping at straws.
Just like the media, it's all bias, anti Trump.
😂😂😂
Keep wokeness and deMOCruusssaaayy out of Iowa, America is a Republic.
And she still refuses to say she was dead wrong.........🤪
This woman talks word salad like Kamala.
"we don't know"......
After more than 1 month and you still don't know what went wrong? Assuming no bias and corruption (big assumption but lets just assume she is not corrupted), this is the most likely reason:
She simply did not do her part in ensuring the data collected is reliable. She did not use any specific sampling method (just simple random sampling with land line phone) and also did not test the data reliability to eliminate outliers and sampling errors. Essentially, it is down to luck and only luck for her to get the "right" samples (voters).
The fact that she is a self-described "data girl" is a f**cking joke. Any statistician, data scientist or econometrician can instantly see the issue with her poll.
STOLEN ELECTION IS EASY TO SAY WHEN THE OTHER SIDE WINS EH? YET THE CONVICTED CRIMINAL AND THE BILLIONAIRE (MUSK) WHO IS FACING FEDERAL CASES FOR HIS COMPANIES WOULDN'T CHEAT. NO WAY!
💯
Release your bank account statements.
I gladly voted for Trump. The best “man” won. 😏
Still in denial... she WANTED her prediction to be true..
The Nostradamus herself!!!!
She “doth protest too much” imo. I’ve been listening to her since the election and it just doesn’t sit right. No matter how many times she explains.
It was a spectacular win in Iowa.
How much was she paid ?
Why didnt she say that ahead of time? "Hey, this is saying this, but there might be something off" That would have saved her all this trouble..
Wonder if she was drinking whiskey with her Selzer when she made her Nostradumb@ss prediction?
At least it gave Democrat voters a burst of optimism for a couple of days before it all came crashing down.
The explanation is simple. Jan 6th broke her brain.
Anyone that wrong is either A. Completely incompetent or B. Completely partisan and willing to push out such outlandish BS. It one or the other. Shes a Democrat so either is plausible. Im going with B
Do you remember when she suppressed that Iowa caucus poll?
Thanks for giving false hope for the liberals and making them cry even harder when they saw reality 🤣
I can tell you why polls can be wrong….because voters can choose to vote for whoever the hell they want to.
Let's call any future poll miscalculation/lie "A Selzer". 😂🤣😂
Hmmm, your poll goes wildly away from everything that has come before -- wouldn't a thoughtful pollster re-do the poll (using a new sample) and 'confirm' the result?
She came to say i dont know
We know why this was put out right before the election.
2:59 she just gives away (allegedly) what she did - she just projects it
These Karen's are out of control!
Lock her up 😂
Trump will let the lawyers sort it out.
She’s a liar… claiming the whole what week would shift it 13 points?!? She’s outside her mind
Use a lie detector & find out if she has bought any expensive things. Democracy demands truth
Trump needs to sue her.
Watching this Dec.16th. Here comes your trip to court Ann. Have 😂😂😂😂 fun !
Publishing that poll was a mistake, man. On its face it didn’t even pass the smell test. Serious analysts could barely hold their laughter when talking about it, it was so bad.
She thought she was slick, but that retirement money can get eaten up by attorney’s fees REAL quick and Iowa’s not anti-SLAPP. And then there’s the settlement. Oof.
1.8 million votes in Iowa. Her error was 310,000 off the mark. This was not a mistake. This was propaganda.
What is the percentage of people who have a landline? 10 percent? What is the percentage of people who answer an unknown caller call? 5 percent?
Her methodology is from last century. Someone put this old cow out to pasture already.
I'm going to assume she is honest and used her best judgment in her polling. She has admittedly had a decent track record before this election. But then her work went terribly wrong. If she is as good as her track record suggests, how is it she cannot in retrospect find the factor which made her go so very, very wrong this one time? That a professional goes very wrong is distressing, but that the pro cannot figure out why is really deeply disturbing. No wonder there are accusations of bias or corruption. The way to kill those off is to explain -- convincingly -- what went wrong.
Are you related to Ann?
It was paid propaganda. You sold your reputation
hey Ann are you ready to get sued !!!
The error was 16 points. Thats catastrophically inaccurate
No matter how she spin it, she just can't explain 16 points discrepancy.
This is why we stopped watching MSM five years ago.
We all know what happened. She was going to retire and walk into a plumb job and in return was performing a final service for the Dems.
Bought and sold
Lawyer up Ann
The interviewer didn’t ask a simple question: were there external factors that affected her result?
Btw, She should be invested for election manipulation.
What a sell out.
PBS deserves no government subsidy. What a waste.
I don’t believe her
The answer is, that the the DEM's could not get those 11 million (missing Biden votes from 2020) into the polls at 03h00 AM. The Trucks did arrive at different poll stations, with boxes of ballets in the morning, but they turned away when they saw MAGA staff still onsite at the polls watching.
These phone videos of the truck arriving and leaving are all posted on X for your review.
Even Harris thought they would still get these 11 million votes in, that is why she waited till the next morning to concede. As Trump said, It was too big to rig.
The videos shows people carrying Ballet Boxes from the truck into the polling station, then walking out with them again. Loading them and then driving off. This time MAGA had people at each polling station, watching what was going on till they closed.
Fake
Trump will see her in court!!
Word salad
She knew it was wrong but she did it anyway. Sue this woman.
She lied.
How can such a smart woman also be totally clueless? She's not malicious, she's just stuck in an absolute echo chamber/bubble.
Kash is coming for you. Get ready.
Election Falseter I mean pollster. 😂😂😂
Political analyst need to wake up!! we the people of America stood together and voted, Democrats and political analysts need to get a grip and understand American citizens
She never denied it.
I should be a polster. I have predicted the last FIVE presidents better than she did.
Her skewed poll that lost by 13points? Was just Nother piling on by the media in the last days before election to try to get kimala elected!!
I tell you, they did a great job, and it had me nervous because they was so relebtless!
Then the results started rolling in and it was over before i got my 2nd bucket of popcorn!!😂
As a statistician she should have rechecked how one poll is showing completely unlikely results.
Ann Selzer is a gold star pollster. Also Ann Selzer -- What does the and R stand for?
I am not buying her excuses. As someone who has participated in polling science and creation (during post-grad), I find her statements dubious at best. Right off the back, her methodology is already flawed (by her own statements). Yes, you want to start out with a pool of poll participants that "look like Iowa." However, that doesn't make someone a likely voter. There is a completely different (albeit scientific) method for creating an accurate "likely voter" pool. In fact, you would first measure just how likely people are to vote (before you even ask the questions about who they will vote for).
That data is important -- because it might tell you if one group of XYZ123 demographics (racial/ethnic, gender, age, political self-identity, voter registration [i.e., Republican, Democrat, Green, Libertarian, etc.] and primary issue) is motivated to vote. Did they feel the same in previous elections? What methods did they use to vote (e.g., in-person, by mail, absentee, etc.)? You can quantify that BEFORE you conduct an election poll. Then, you can conduct the poll based upon that more accurate likely voter model.
Secondly, Selzer's poll was certainly a major outlier compared with ALL OTHER polls conducted during the same period. This included the candidates' own insider polling data. Yet, Selzer's poll just about went off the deep end of the outlier moniker. The Emerson poll had Trump up by 10 points. Trump won the state by 13 points. That's within the MOE for Emerson (3.4). Selzer's poll was off by 16 points. That's 12.6 points outside the extent of her MOE (3.4). That's horrendous.
As for why she got it wrong: We don't have her methodology for THAT poll versus previous polls. However, she obviously overestimated highly motivated Harris voters. I would venture to guess that she overestimated the white, female, young, liberal, Democrats who were more vocally motivated by abortion. This is because white women supported Trump much more than most pollsters expected. This didn't surprise me because polling has long since held that a notable minority (and, at times, majority) of women consider themselves pro-life. Gallup had this number at 41% a couple of years ago -- but 51% in 2016. CNN's exit polling showed 45% of women voted for Trump. I suspect that Iowa was within a few points of that figure. I wonder: How many pro-abortion voters Selzer's polling included?
I suspect that there were other factors -- including race/ethnicity -- that contributed to Selzer's polling disaster. This is because most demographic groups shifted toward Trump. However, those numbers weren't particularly large numbers in terms of the groups that live in Iowa. My guess is that they the shifting was off in her polling (which is understandable) but that she oversaturated the motivated Harris supporters -- particularly those motivated by issues (and abortion would be the biggest area in which many polls were wrong). I just think that Selzer might have expected pro-abortion women to show up in force in Iowa in 2024. That just didn't happen in numbers that she might have expected.
She lied to help Kamala but people showed the truth
Someone is going to jail and she knows it.
Iowa is not a swing state, it's a red state
“Why’d you mess up so bad?”
“I wi$h I knew the an$wer to that.”
I do not believe her. She knows why she was wrong but she dare not tell us why
Hillary sounds more honest than this lady.
Iowa final results:
Trump: 56%
Harris: 42.7%
I can understand being off by a point or two, but to be off by 16 is abysmal. She just ruined any credibility she had with this poll.
Selzer was trading on Polymarket cause when her poll came out, TRUMP probably dropped like 8% in Polymarket 🤣 🤭 😆 🙄 🤦♂
I don't remember the exact amount
She asked the question of what R and D stand for?
Kamala paid her for favor ing kamala? Kamala spent so much money .Kash Patel must investigates this lady
How much money kamala paid her
What's the price to sell your integrity?
When become biased , the fate of her happens …lesson to all biased reporters..
Plop,plop,fiz,fiz, oh what a relief it is!
Career: OVER
Voter turnout WAS higher than 2022 AND 2020. No one expected the voter turnout that happened this year.
She is a clown. It also shows how subjective her data has been in the past. Zero credibility.
She got wind of a steal that would reverse huge deficits; rather than expose that steal, she opted to bask in its reflected glory. Jail.
%#* headline on her in 2016: Ann Selzer Is The Best Pollster In Politics
How her old-school rigor makes her uncannily accurate.
What a fraud!!!
It is wonderful to see Trump "spanking" the fake news media, like a daddy disciplining a naughty child. Watching them screaming and rolling around like a kid who's toy was taken from them, is so heartwarming. Finally the adults are back in the house.
Who many other polls of hers where wrong, 2020?