Also, all of the corporate media polling of the top issues also clearly painted an easy win. They all admitted that the economy and immigration were by far the most important issues, and they all favored orange man by a county mile. Plus, all of the corporate shills even admitted that only 25-30% of Americans believed that the country was going in the right direction. This data already told you that he was going to win bigly.
You're exactly right. I follow the polls and all of the prominent outlets. But at the end of the day, for the last 2 or 3 weeks before the election, there was this vibe or feel to do with momentum on the Trump side that was unmistakable. Not sure that would show up in a poll. That kind of energy cannot even be quantified necessarily. But it was there and was very real (as the election results demonstrated).
I told my daughter it was going to be a landslide. She's a teacher and around a lot of Liberals so she was doubtful. But I remember when Carter ran against Reagan we had high inflation, high interest rates, shortage of gas (we would wait in lines to fill our tanks) and Carter and Democrats again had political blinders on. In the debate Carter said his daughter, Amy, was concerned about controlling nuclear energy. The country thought - Hey, we're worried about putting food on the table.
I remeber that too. 17% interest rates were pretty hefty. But I think it was the combination of bad economics AND the woke stuff people were just tired off too.
The beauty of polling is if you fail to be unbiased or accurate for three straight elections you lose power. Atlas, Rasmussen have gained trust, influence and credibility.
Atlas should be the only one people pay attention to. They were the most accurate in 2016 and 2020, and spot on in 2024 again. There is no bias there. They had Trump winning all 7 swing states and the popular vote, which was exactly what happened. That's just pure, objective truth. The complete opposite of mainstream media poll nonsense that had her winning Iowa last minute. Give me a break. MSM should not be trusted for ANYTHING they say.
The real key was ignoring what the msm was saying about the status of the race. They were trying to influence conservatives not to vote by repeating the lie that she was blowing him out. If you looked at the country as a whole and know anything at all about how Americans think, this one wasn’t hard to predict.
You're very good. All the mainstream media and pollsters only provided negative criticism or prediction on Trump but you stood firm on your prediction , and it was correct. Bravo.
All he did is rip off the system that Rich Baris (The Peoples Pundit) created. The guy that actually created the system was shunned by the community for being too “right wing”. They don’t even allow his polls to be in the aggregates regardless of the fact he has been the most accurate since 2016. Now they are using his “right wing” System and pretending it’s their own. It’s not ok, its disgusting
America rejected: Beyonce Lady Gaga Katy Perry Megan Thee Stallion John Legend Oprah Winfrey Barack Obama Michelle Obama Bill Clinton Hillary Clinton Usher Taylor Swift George Clooney Ariana Grande Jamie Lee Curtis Will I Am JLO CARDI B And choose FREEDOM.🇺🇸💪 The era of the celebrity endorsement is DEAD.🤭
Thank God. Some of those people are absolutely nauseating. But none of them would have TDS without the mainstream media, they all got it from that. If "draining the swamp" was applied to the media as well, we would have none of this crap and even celebrities would be less insane.
@@kieransoregaard-utt8I would reject Hollywood even if we went back to the Stone Age. Celebrities don’t have moral or intellectual superiority over anyone.
The People's Pundit, Richard Barris, was spot on when he predicted 312 to 226 for Trump. His polling organization has been consistently more accurate than almost all of the rest. If you're a betting man, he is the one to watch for deciding on your bets.
@@bawilson999 From the looks of it, Atlas Intel should be the most trusted pollster now imo, they alongside Trafalgar and Rasmussen really were very close with their polling. Atlas Intel however was also quite accurate in 2020 and 2022.
The guy from Rasmussen was saying the whole time he wasn't sure what was going on with other polls. Rasm was more accurate and more consistent. They held pretty steady the whole time.
@@taurusx1000 true and some Harris supporters I know got excited about it so maybe I answered my own question but I don’t think anyone who wasn’t over the top for Harris actually believe that ridiculous pole
If you believe in justice, please like this, so others can see it. Rich Baris is the person who created this model for polling. Way back prior to the 2016 election. He has been incredibly accurate in every presidential election involving Trump, even predicting his victory in 2016. But he has been completely shunned by the community for being “right wing”. To see them now using his “right wing” model that he created and pretending like it’s their own new invention makes me want to vomit. They were the ones that were harassing him and his family (by taking away his livelihood) now they’re trying to take credit for it. Please don’t let them get away with this
In 2016 and 2020, the polls heavily undercounted Trump's support, and in 2022 they overcounted support for Trump-aligned Republicans. But this year, they were pretty much bang on in both the presidential and Senate contests. I don't know how that happened, but it did.
When a lot of Californians started to show their support for Trump publicly, that’s when I knew he was gonna win. My neighbor put up her Trump flag, which then encouraged a few of us Trump supporters to do the same.
These guys aren't even near the best pollsters/modelers. Atlas Intel, Rasmussen and let's not forget Rich Baris (people's pundit) for nailing this election. Baris has been saying 312 for Trump for months now
Let me correct News Nation. Anyone who followed Rasmussen knew exactly how the election would go. I amazed my friends my telling them how many electoral votes Trump would get and how he would win each of the battleground states. All of which was shown in Rasmussen's poll. I didn't tell where I got the info, I just told them I'm good at predicting elections
I tried to tell my liberal friends and they would not listen. Told them in 2020 Most pollsters showed a Biden +8 to +12 win. Bidens win was +4. That means all of the mainstream polls were off by 4 to 8 points. In 2024 the used the same weights to determine vote turnout as they did in 2020. This means they were all going to be off by at least 4 points. In addition, how can almost every state show an increase in registered Republicans and a corresponding drop in Democrats and still have the 2020 weights of what % of voters would be Democrats? Told them all that any Poll that had Harris up by less than 4% was a Trump win, and even if they showed 8%, Harris still may be losing. Nothing like the trick where the Magician tells you the trick, performs it for you in slow motion several times, and then the do it at full speed and you miss it again and again. Which is pretty much where all my liberal friends ended up on November 5th.
That’s very interesting. If he was accurately picking up (and keeping in) 17% previous non voters. Why were the overall number of voters down by 19 million from 2020? Where did they all go?
@@119Agent That question started popping up soon after the presidential race was called for Trump, usually with 20 million as the number. But they forgot that the race being called did NOT mean all the votes were done being counted, just that enough had been counted to be sure Trump would win. When people started asking "Where'd those 20 million votes go?" California alone still had over 6 million votes left to count.
@ yep. We already knew the number of votes *cast* and knew there was not a significant decline in votes however for days we saw the *counted* number quoted as total 2024 voters.
Since 1980, right track track having a 15 pt gap for wrong track means the incumbent party loses. If gap is less than 15% towards wrong track, incumbent party wins.
I was visiting family in suburban Philly two weeks before the election…my sister’s neighborhood was split right down the middle with signs….I knew Trump would win PA.
I KNEW he would win the moment I saw the diverse rally crowd in the BRONX. His win was confirmed when he was shot and the American flag flew over his bloodied face. Harris had NO CHANCE, and the twerking confirmed that. NEVER NEEDED ANY POLL.
@@Jeremy_the_bot 3 Pollsters were very accurate though, the problem is that most people are just looking at the "mainstream" ones. I.e. Rasmussen, Trafalgar and Atlas Intel were all quite accurate.
@@aflyingcowboy31 yes because they had a right wing bias to begin with so when the right does better than expected, those polls do better than expected. Being lucky isn't evidence of being accurate.
Full credit to this guest and JL Partners, but they were NOT better than Rich Baris/Big Data Poll, who only polled a few states, but nailed all of them and had the NPV margin almost exactly correct as well. Atlas Intel and Rasmussen also did very well.
On the issues and the politics, the campaign was a disaster. On the issues, Harris failed to run on the core things we support: EG: K-12 education, a public option on the exchange, passage of the ProAct to increase opportunities for unionization, Ukraine's admission to NATO, and good good government, including a ban on Congressional stock trading. On top of everything else, Harris failed politically: As VP, she didn't campaign in the battleground states during the midterms, she didn't attend foreign events, and she didn't publicly campaign on the President's agenda. So, Harris lacked credibility from the get-go. In fact, her 2024 campaign was a macrocosm of her 2020 Presidential nomination campaign - An expensive party with no substance beyond the glitter. Everybody agrees that Biden stayed in the race too long. Nobody asks why. Biden likely knew that if he did not run for reelection, then Harris, as sitting VP, would be the likely nominee. Further, after working with her for three years, Biden probably realized she would be unable to meet the moment. Jonathan W. Fink, JD, Harris-Walz Utah Digital Media Co-Coordinator and Western States Volunteer Coordinator
Phone polling statically people who pick up have time and inclination(older liberal women)to spend 15 minutes with a pollster…aka they are tired of talking to their cats 😂
So he sees a large number of voters who didn't vote in 2020, but the vote totals are significantly down fro. 2020 to 2024. It's almost like someone cheated in the previous election.
Love Dan! It’s disturbing how often I agree with you. Trump is a disgusting human; could not bring myself to vote for him, but he has it on the issues that matter to most. I wanted Harris to be interviewed & make a compelling case, but either she couldn’t or was unwilling to.
How could any pollsters b correct in their polls?,Allan Lichtman’s 13 keys pointed to a sure win for Kamala,oops, he didn’t take into consideration that Trump changed the 13 locks. Lichtman failed bigly, time to throw away his 13 keys.
I saw some analysis that said the keys themselves were actually pretty good but Lichtman was so biased he fouled up applying his own model. For example, he gave Trump zero points for charisma when a large percentage of voters adore his charisma.
So essentially… Johnson’s group maintains detachment… they collect the data… then analyze the data… then report what the data shows. They ignored the true outliers…
I can’t think of the guy I was following prior to the election but he had Trump winning exactly as it was. He was on TH-cam and I’ve been following him since Harris entered the race, and he was dead on. Since the election I can’t find him lol
Uhm...Politico is full of shite. Baris, Rasmussen and other independent pollsters were a lot more accurate throughout the race, unlike the MSM pollsters who manipulated the data to create the narrative that Kamala was competitive. The independent pollsters were right on the money, 312-226 Trump with a popular vote win of about 1-2 points. That's what I expected to see before the 5th and that's exactly what happened on the 5th. This guy got the call of a Trump win correct but so did many others.
my advise to american people is no matter who won don’t be carried away that what you wish for happen cause politicians sell dreams. it just depends who sell it better and trump did it as hardship suffering by majority american is real. however, the economic today is vastly different especially after the pandemic as it has speed up the use of AI on many things. i do pray that president elect Mr Trump will bring the chance that american wants cause although im not American, what happened in America doesn’t just stay in America.
I have much higher hopes for Trump than anybody prior to him, in part b/c of the people he has around him. At the same time, I don't think his presidency will be without mistakes, or without revealing his character flaws again. Hopefully he will do enormously more good than harm, including and especially closing the border and ending the Ukraine war. You are right it is best not to believe in them too much though, politicians almost always disappoint.
pollsters don't know shit..... 1. they'd have to ask EVERY voter to have somewhat objective stats 2. even if they asked everyone, what if a lot of those people lied :D:D
Allen Lichtman had a good model but he misinterpreted it. Keys 9 for scandal and key 13 for Charisma went against Harris. We already have five keys. There was unrest at college campuses which may or may not count but if we give half point to Keys five (inflation and job numbers were manufactured somewhat) then we hit six keys which leads to a loss for Kamala. Key 4 is critical as well since there was a third party campaign even if RFK decided to endorse Trump. This is like six or seven keys. Now Allan isn't admitting his own faults but blaming fake news and independent media. He definitely comes across as a smug academic a**hole.
I’m not a pollster I knew Trump would win by a lot. How? By living in the real world with real people.
Also, all of the corporate media polling of the top issues also clearly painted an easy win. They all admitted that the economy and immigration were by far the most important issues, and they all favored orange man by a county mile. Plus, all of the corporate shills even admitted that only 25-30% of Americans believed that the country was going in the right direction. This data already told you that he was going to win bigly.
You're exactly right. I follow the polls and all of the prominent outlets. But at the end of the day, for the last 2 or 3 weeks before the election, there was this vibe or feel to do with momentum on the Trump side that was unmistakable. Not sure that would show up in a poll. That kind of energy cannot even be quantified necessarily. But it was there and was very real (as the election results demonstrated).
A lot of pollsters were not trying to depict voter sentiment, but attempting to help the Democrat win
BINGO!!!!
Atlas Intel and Rasmussen are among the most accurate.
Rasmussen is notoriously right leaning.
@@well_i_liked_it looks like the final results were notoriously right leaning too!
@@stewie4467 Yes they were. That is my point. Broken clock theory. I never put much weight on Rasmussen.
Rasmussen got it really wrong this election.
@@thatfeeling2023no they didn’t they were closer than most
Where is Allen Lichtman?! 😂😂
He was losing his mind on his livestream last night 😂
He yet to recover from his coffee dose 😂😂
He dipped into the nearest black hole and ejected into a new universe...his career is over
😂😂😂😂😂😂
Hiding til it blows over
I told my daughter it was going to be a landslide. She's a teacher and around a lot of Liberals so she was doubtful. But I remember when Carter ran against Reagan we had high inflation, high interest rates, shortage of gas (we would wait in lines to fill our tanks) and Carter and Democrats again had political blinders on. In the debate Carter said his daughter, Amy, was concerned about controlling nuclear energy. The country thought - Hey, we're worried about putting food on the table.
Yes I clearly remember that... Inflation crushed Carter
I remeber that too. 17% interest rates were pretty hefty. But I think it was the combination of bad economics AND the woke stuff people were just tired off too.
I thought abortion was gonna push it too close but fortunately not
Atlas Intel was also incredibly accurate.
Way more accurate than these guys. Rasmussen was the best this year
The beauty of polling is if you fail to be unbiased or accurate for three straight elections you lose power. Atlas, Rasmussen have gained trust, influence and credibility.
Atlas should be the only one people pay attention to. They were the most accurate in 2016 and 2020, and spot on in 2024 again. There is no bias there. They had Trump winning all 7 swing states and the popular vote, which was exactly what happened. That's just pure, objective truth. The complete opposite of mainstream media poll nonsense that had her winning Iowa last minute. Give me a break. MSM should not be trusted for ANYTHING they say.
And yet aggregators like 538 will keep giving them a lower weight on their models, and keep giving higher weight to Marist, CNN, or New York Times.
The real key was ignoring what the msm was saying about the status of the race. They were trying to influence conservatives not to vote by repeating the lie that she was blowing him out. If you looked at the country as a whole and know anything at all about how Americans think, this one wasn’t hard to predict.
Exactly.....
You're very good. All the mainstream media and pollsters only provided negative criticism or prediction on Trump but you stood firm on your prediction , and it was correct. Bravo.
The pollster might have an accent but he probably knows the Battleground state Americans better than most of America's political class lol
All he did is rip off the system that Rich Baris (The Peoples Pundit) created. The guy that actually created the system was shunned by the community for being too “right wing”. They don’t even allow his polls to be in the aggregates regardless of the fact he has been the most accurate since 2016. Now they are using his “right wing” System and pretending it’s their own. It’s not ok, its disgusting
Atlas Intel polling was most accurate in 2024 with 312 electoral votes and popular vote for Trump as well.
Rich Baris was.
.1% difference
Kudos brother. Well done.
America rejected:
Beyonce
Lady Gaga
Katy Perry
Megan Thee Stallion
John Legend
Oprah Winfrey
Barack Obama
Michelle Obama
Bill Clinton
Hillary Clinton
Usher
Taylor Swift
George Clooney
Ariana Grande
Jamie Lee Curtis
Will I Am
JLO
CARDI B
And choose FREEDOM.🇺🇸💪
The era of the celebrity endorsement is DEAD.🤭
Thank God. Some of those people are absolutely nauseating. But none of them would have TDS without the mainstream media, they all got it from that. If "draining the swamp" was applied to the media as well, we would have none of this crap and even celebrities would be less insane.
Plus, most of the main cast of the Avengers did a last minute promo push for Harris.
Wonder if you’ll still be saying this when those tariffs hit LMFAOOOOOOOOOOOOO
@@kieransoregaard-utt8I would reject Hollywood even if we went back to the Stone Age. Celebrities don’t have moral or intellectual superiority over anyone.
@@Bagofsoup Free?
Atlas Intel was the best
The People's Pundit, Richard Barris, was spot on when he predicted 312 to 226 for Trump. His polling organization has been consistently more accurate than almost all of the rest. If you're a betting man, he is the one to watch for deciding on your bets.
Not being biased is a great start.
Wrong NN, you should be speaking to Mark Mitchell from rasmussen reports. He absolutely nailed it.
He kinda nailed from the day Kamala took the over for Biden, one of the very few that I saw.
Rasmussen was closer.
@@bawilson999 From the looks of it, Atlas Intel should be the most trusted pollster now imo, they alongside Trafalgar and Rasmussen really were very close with their polling.
Atlas Intel however was also quite accurate in 2020 and 2022.
@@bawilson999 when they try to use a poll as a propaganda tool... they take biased samples.
The guy from Rasmussen was saying the whole time he wasn't sure what was going on with other polls. Rasm was more accurate and more consistent. They held pretty steady the whole time.
@@docholliday7226 Exactly. He stuck to his guns that he was right and he was.
The Iowa pollster,she ain't got nothing to say now?
Yeah, but who actually believed that Iowa poll ?
@@Ryan2022 CNN and the others were so joyful
@@taurusx1000 true and some Harris supporters I know got excited about it so maybe I answered my own question but I don’t think anyone who wasn’t over the top for Harris actually believe that ridiculous pole
She got paid Lizzo money to push that fake poll in hopes it would energize the dem base.....didn't work, but at least Anne Selzer got a fat check!
she claimed she's "going to review the data"
Doesn't sound like he's a pollster. He's like Nate Silver, a modeler.
I'm refuse to let pollsters know what I'm doing.
Why are they taking to like the 5th least bad poll? Rasmussen ended up being the best. Atlas Intel, Trafalgar, and New York Post were also closer.
Smart chap!
White, blue-collar, conservative here. In my 50's. I have never been asked to participate in a political poll. Ever. Not complaining...
If you believe in justice, please like this, so others can see it. Rich Baris is the person who created this model for polling. Way back prior to the 2016 election. He has been incredibly accurate in every presidential election involving Trump, even predicting his victory in 2016. But he has been completely shunned by the community for being “right wing”. To see them now using his “right wing” model that he created and pretending like it’s their own new invention makes me want to vomit. They were the ones that were harassing him and his family (by taking away his livelihood) now they’re trying to take credit for it. Please don’t let them get away with this
I’m one of those who didn’t vote in 16 or 20 but this one was different, our nations ideals were and are on the line and we need Trump.
My post election poll is the most accurate. Trump 312, Camala 226 and soon to be unemployed.
In 2016 and 2020, the polls heavily undercounted Trump's support, and in 2022 they overcounted support for Trump-aligned Republicans. But this year, they were pretty much bang on in both the presidential and Senate contests. I don't know how that happened, but it did.
There's another pollster who has been on Steve Turleys channel. He had the exact amount of electoral college votes. Amazing.
When a lot of Californians started to show their support for Trump publicly, that’s when I knew he was gonna win. My neighbor put up her Trump flag, which then encouraged a few of us Trump supporters to do the same.
I can see your point. Kind of the same thing in Illinois
Nowadays, beware of false Prophets & false
Pollsters, they all think
alike! 🎭🤗
These guys aren't even near the best pollsters/modelers. Atlas Intel, Rasmussen and let's not forget Rich Baris (people's pundit) for nailing this election. Baris has been saying 312 for Trump for months now
FIRE DAN ABRAMS
I haved picked every President since 1968.
Who's gonna win 2028?
Let me correct News Nation. Anyone who followed Rasmussen knew exactly how the election would go. I amazed my friends my telling them how many electoral votes Trump would get and how he would win each of the battleground states. All of which was shown in Rasmussen's poll.
I didn't tell where I got the info, I just told them I'm good at predicting elections
I tried to tell my liberal friends and they would not listen. Told them in 2020 Most pollsters showed a Biden +8 to +12 win. Bidens win was +4. That means all of the mainstream polls were off by 4 to 8 points. In 2024 the used the same weights to determine vote turnout as they did in 2020. This means they were all going to be off by at least 4 points. In addition, how can almost every state show an increase in registered Republicans and a corresponding drop in Democrats and still have the 2020 weights of what % of voters would be Democrats?
Told them all that any Poll that had Harris up by less than 4% was a Trump win, and even if they showed 8%, Harris still may be losing.
Nothing like the trick where the Magician tells you the trick, performs it for you in slow motion several times, and then the do it at full speed and you miss it again and again. Which is pretty much where all my liberal friends ended up on November 5th.
I have one comment! “It’s not over until it’s over” don’t count the chickens until they are hatched. Be prepared for the worst!
Rasmussen, Atlas Intel, Trafalgar (generally)!
That’s very interesting. If he was accurately picking up (and keeping in) 17% previous non voters. Why were the overall number of voters down by 19 million from 2020? Where did they all go?
They were never there to begin with.
Imaginary people and deceased seem to vote with no problems in the US...
Where are you getting that number from? The vote difference between 2020 and 2024 is about 2.4 million
@@119Agent That question started popping up soon after the presidential race was called for Trump, usually with 20 million as the number. But they forgot that the race being called did NOT mean all the votes were done being counted, just that enough had been counted to be sure Trump would win. When people started asking "Where'd those 20 million votes go?" California alone still had over 6 million votes left to count.
@ yep. We already knew the number of votes *cast* and knew there was not a significant decline in votes however for days we saw the *counted* number quoted as total 2024 voters.
Since 1980, right track track having a 15 pt gap for wrong track means the incumbent party loses. If gap is less than 15% towards wrong track, incumbent party wins.
Congrats.
I always listen to the poll questions and note if they are biased then answer that way to troll the pollsters. Even if I believe the opposite.
I was visiting family in suburban Philly two weeks before the election…my sister’s neighborhood was split right down the middle with signs….I knew Trump would win PA.
I KNEW he would win the moment I saw the diverse rally crowd in the BRONX. His win was confirmed when he was shot and the American flag flew over his bloodied face. Harris had NO CHANCE, and the twerking confirmed that. NEVER NEEDED ANY POLL.
You need to be interviewing Atlas-Intel, Rasmussen, and Trafalgar they were the most accurate historically.
This is a perfect discussion of survey bias. Using this in my AP Stats class.
Alan litchman 👺🤡
BS. I'll never listen to another pollster again. Sure, some get lucky, but generally they are clueless.
Agreed. Never again. They told us that the polling mistakes from 2016 had been fixed.
@@Jeremy_the_bot 3 Pollsters were very accurate though, the problem is that most people are just looking at the "mainstream" ones.
I.e. Rasmussen, Trafalgar and Atlas Intel were all quite accurate.
@@aflyingcowboy31 yes because they had a right wing bias to begin with so when the right does better than expected, those polls do better than expected. Being lucky isn't evidence of being accurate.
consider that most polls are used to *shape* public opinion, not _gauge_ public opinion.
I guess most "pollsters" do not buy groceries or pay a visit to the gas station.
I can not be reached by any polling method apparently.
Wait, predicting it’s basically a coin toss means “we knew”?
You can do that when all the other pollsters are predicting the other way as a slam dunk.
We didn't. We didn't, Joe! Looooool
I had a strong feeling he would win to .
Rasmussen was doing this the whole time
54% prob and the margin of victory they predicted honestly isn’t even impressive.
I predicted reprise of Reagan 1984.
Red Eagle politics seems to have been 100% right.
Full credit to this guest and JL Partners, but they were NOT better than Rich Baris/Big Data Poll, who only polled a few states, but nailed all of them and had the NPV margin almost exactly correct as well. Atlas Intel and Rasmussen also did very well.
I looked at early voting numbers and live in the real world. I thought he'd win 312 EVs. He did. It wasn't hard.
The last time I voted was for George Bush..... senior. But I'm glad Trump won.
Atlas Intel , Insider and Trafalgar most accurate again
A team guesses a 50/50 answer correctly while getting 50% of the details wildly wrong yet he’s being interviewed as an insider genius lol.
On the issues and the politics, the campaign was a disaster. On the issues, Harris failed to run on the core things we support: EG: K-12 education, a public option on the exchange, passage of the ProAct to increase opportunities for unionization, Ukraine's admission to NATO, and good good government, including a ban on Congressional stock trading. On top of everything else, Harris failed politically: As VP, she didn't campaign in the battleground states during the midterms, she didn't attend foreign events, and she didn't publicly campaign on the President's agenda. So, Harris lacked credibility from the get-go. In fact, her 2024 campaign was a macrocosm of her 2020 Presidential nomination campaign - An expensive party with no substance beyond the glitter. Everybody agrees that Biden stayed in the race too long. Nobody asks why. Biden likely knew that if he did not run for reelection, then Harris, as sitting VP, would be the likely nominee. Further, after working with her for three years, Biden probably realized she would be unable to meet the moment. Jonathan W. Fink, JD, Harris-Walz Utah Digital Media Co-Coordinator and Western States Volunteer Coordinator
I had predicted Trump would get 310 electoral votes. Maybe I should go into the business.
He just got lucky.
I wonder what he means by that? 😂
how did you get it right??? we did not lie.
What happened? The majority of America voted for Donald Trump.
Rich Baris was the most accurate pollster this go around.
Rich Baris WAS the most accurate pollster in 24. Predicted within .1%
Phone polling statically people who pick up have time and inclination(older liberal women)to spend 15 minutes with a pollster…aka they are tired of talking to their cats 😂
He wasn’t even close.
So he sees a large number of voters who didn't vote in 2020, but the vote totals are significantly down fro. 2020 to 2024. It's almost like someone cheated in the previous election.
Love Dan! It’s disturbing how often I agree with you. Trump is a disgusting human; could not bring myself to vote for him, but he has it on the issues that matter to most. I wanted Harris to be interviewed & make a compelling case, but either she couldn’t or was unwilling to.
I am sure you would not look to good if you were under the insane scrutiny that he has been under.
How could any pollsters b correct in their polls?,Allan Lichtman’s 13 keys pointed to a sure win for Kamala,oops, he didn’t take into consideration that Trump changed the 13 locks. Lichtman failed bigly, time to throw away his 13 keys.
I saw some analysis that said the keys themselves were actually pretty good but Lichtman was so biased he fouled up applying his own model. For example, he gave Trump zero points for charisma when a large percentage of voters adore his charisma.
54% chance wasn't really going out on a limb.
Many registred first time to vote against Biden?KH
So essentially… Johnson’s group maintains detachment… they collect the data… then analyze the data… then report what the data shows.
They ignored the true outliers…
I really hope there will be a candidate in 4 years that could win all the states that Trump won and expand the map to Virginia and Minnesota.
I can’t think of the guy I was following prior to the election but he had Trump winning exactly as it was. He was on TH-cam and I’ve been following him since Harris entered the race, and he was dead on. Since the election I can’t find him lol
If Trump wins Az-I had 312 to Trump and 212 to Harris.
Im not American and never been there but I knew Trump would win😂
Abrams, it was Atlas Intel which was most accurate.
Let me help here. Most trump voters won't talk to pollsters. This has been the same for 3 elections in a row. Not hard to understand
I heard it's like 16% of white men that refuse to answer polls.
Rasmussen was better than this guy.
Uhm...Politico is full of shite. Baris, Rasmussen and other independent pollsters were a lot more accurate throughout the race, unlike the MSM pollsters who manipulated the data to create the narrative that Kamala was competitive. The independent pollsters were right on the money, 312-226 Trump with a popular vote win of about 1-2 points. That's what I expected to see before the 5th and that's exactly what happened on the 5th. This guy got the call of a Trump win correct but so did many others.
what do I mean by that?
my advise to american people is no matter who won don’t be carried away that what you wish for happen cause politicians sell dreams. it just depends who sell it better and trump did it as hardship suffering by majority american is real. however, the economic today is vastly different especially after the pandemic as it has speed up the use of AI on many things. i do pray that president elect Mr Trump will bring the chance that american wants cause although im not American, what happened in America doesn’t just stay in America.
I have much higher hopes for Trump than anybody prior to him, in part b/c of the people he has around him. At the same time, I don't think his presidency will be without mistakes, or without revealing his character flaws again. Hopefully he will do enormously more good than harm, including and especially closing the border and ending the Ukraine war. You are right it is best not to believe in them too much though, politicians almost always disappoint.
pollsters don't know shit..... 1. they'd have to ask EVERY voter to have somewhat objective stats 2. even if they asked everyone, what if a lot of those people lied :D:D
BYE, BYE, KAMALA!
Abrams looks like a vampire
Funny how you have to get accurate news form other countries
🤦🏽♂️
🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🥂🥂🥂🥂🥂🍾🍾🍾🍾🍾 TRUMP IS PRESIDENT
Allen Lichtman had a good model but he misinterpreted it. Keys 9 for scandal and key 13 for Charisma went against Harris. We already have five keys.
There was unrest at college campuses which may or may not count but if we give half point to Keys five (inflation and job numbers were manufactured somewhat) then we hit six keys which leads to a loss for Kamala. Key 4 is critical as well since there was a third party campaign even if RFK decided to endorse Trump.
This is like six or seven keys.
Now Allan isn't admitting his own faults but blaming fake news and independent media. He definitely comes across as a smug academic a**hole.
His bias got the better of him.
Why talk to a Brit?
speaking da English aren't you?
I no longer ead books by American historians. Woke woke woke. If British I find lesss focus on fluencing me and more focused on imparting the truth.
Because he's a pollster dummy
@@LoseBellyFatNow0 But he is British
Horrific accent