Warren Buffett Recites a 600 B.C. Investment Equation
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 8 พ.ค. 2019
- Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger answer a question regarding growth and value stocks. From the 2000 Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting.
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Charlie Munger has an Autographed copy of the Old Testament.
First edition no less. He was there before 1k followers
@@callous21 Not only that, but he and Moses played 9 hole in the middle of the Red Sea.
They are in the same category as Morgan Freeman.
Yeah cause he’s a jew
Shit, Munger SIGNED the Old Testament!
Plot twist: It was buffet himself who wrote this equation in 600BC
he protecc
he attacc
but most importantly hes old as facc
He HAS been around for forever...perhaps literally!!!
GahHHHhHahahahah
Thumb up
Hahaha haha!!! 🤣🤣🤣
Munger lookin like he's feeding the answers telepathically to Buffett.
😂😂😂 👍
Holy Shit... Ur right
Not that far off from the truth. Lol!
Belly laugh... gracias!
OMG!! Is that the weed, or is that the funniest shit ever!!?? 😂
Munger is smiling because his bank account is growing while Buffet talks.
👏
Nah, He knows a fresh batch of peanut brittle is waiting for him back stage)
Buffet is laughing out loud because he knows that no matter how much he talks or munger smiles, his bank account will always remain bigger.
@@roake0331 underrated.
he looks like a fukn chipmunk
God, to think Warren, and Charlie, are only 26 years old on this video.
Lmao!!
26? This was only 19 years ago. That would mean that they are 45 today....
Will Howard I bet you’re real fun at parties.
@@willhoward2724 oof
OMFG😂😂😂😂
How long have these guys been old!?
I think they've always been old.
lmao
Since 600BC.
I nearly spat all of my drink on my phone after reading this 😂😂
It's the dairy queen.
Munger is sleeping or having flashbacks of 600BC, lol.
Hahahaah
Hilarious
Must be a hooker under the table doing her job?
Bull Bear Portfolio he’s thinking about boobs and beer
*fourtunate son plays in background as Munger has ptsd flashbacks to the fall of Constantinople *
Munger is the Three-Eyed Raven of Berkshire Hathaway
His eyes are white and look at those head movements....
lol
The four-eyed raven*
Tbh he looks like a Pygmy Owl
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Is it true that Charlie Munger gets frozen after each of these meetings and then a year later gets reactivated with some water and a stove?
Made me crack up!
yes
lol
I caught a face muscle laughing to this...
Buffet has a way of making everyone feel like they can do what he does.
just like trump
You can. It's not rocket science. I have a really bad memory but I have strong emotional control, don't mind being hated for disagreeing with the crowd, and dispassionately evaluate facts. That's it. Be patient
@@peterkortvel The only difference is that Trump doesn't need to actually, do anything, unlike Buffet who has to show results
Sometimes even the worst of fools compare themselves to buffet. They say all the things that are easy to say instead of the things that are HARD to say today, as that would make you heroic.
2:55 is the equation
Buffet missed the whole point of Aesop’s proverb
@@charlieharper7 what was the point of the proverb?
Lewis H that having something, even if it is a lesser quantity, is better than taking the chance of losing it in order to attain something else that seems more desirable.
@@charlieharper7 cheers
@@charlieharper7 I think Buffet went on to explain very nicely exactly when it's worth giving up the one in the hand. I think Aesop was warning against speculation, so they are on the same page about risk. But true investment ensures safety of the principle and adequate return (quoting Ben Graham). So I think Buffet got it exactly right.
Munger always loks like he is there, but also somewhere else. :)
:D:D: Charlie is awesome
Rich people get the good meds
He looks like a human robot
Big respect tho
Three-Eyed Raven confirmed?
I swear Charlie was getting blown the whole time
I thought he was a robot
LOL
@@henkondemand He is
He is... that's what happens when you are that riche.
GarethNIreland - 👏👏👏 - I haven’t laughed that hard in a while
Charlie looks like Yoda from the original Star Wars lmao
Simone Castelli HAHAHA
My favorite line from Mr. Munger is "if you mix turds with raisins they're still turds..".
*You can also watch Buffett and Munger's videos from my channel !*
Fun fact, the company that the audience member asked about and that was experiencing incredible growth would end up going bankrupt in 2007 - lasting only 7 years past this conference
What company was it?
National RV. I haven’t figured out what the stock was trading at in 2000, but it hit 13.50 in 2004 which was a one year high. Then later in 2007 was trading at 3.50 and even went bankrupt
That was during the financial crisis
Thanks for that info. Goes to show you how difficult investing especially in individual names can be. A company can be solid but an extraneous shock can be enough to send it to bankruptcy and change its whole course.
@@rexgordon3899 yes, things can change and may be out of the companies control.
This clip is from 2000, for those not wanting to read description.
@Tim Grosse same until reading description after trying to look up National RV, the answer is still relevant though
2000 BC you mean
Oh, so Warren was only 70 years old in this video.
National RV Holdings went out of business back in November 2007.
@@kevincombes3159 NRVHQ if anyone finds a graph for the stock post it. Though this is trading not the hold forever maxim
Charlie Munger grew up in Omaha Neb, worked at Mr. Buffets grandfather grocery store and earned an academic scholarship to U of Michigan, math physics. Mr. Munger left U Mich during WW2 survived and then Harvard Law School accepted Charlie Munger. Mr. Munger graduated from Harvard Law School then moved to Calif and started a Law Practice. Mr. Munger then started an Investment Firm and years later merged with Warren Buffet.
Charlie Munger in 2019 is 95 years old and BRILLIANT. The Berkshire Annual Meetings are a Gift for Finance Investment Knowledge but also about living life, Mr. Munger and Mr. Buffet are gifting all of us inapplicable life knowledge with no fee , AMAZING GIFT TO US
Nicely put !
It is free n as such seems to be less valuable for some-
Inapplicable? What do you mean?
"Inapplicable" means we can't use it
If it’s all inapplicable, then what good is it?
Charlie looks the same in 2000 as he does in 2019, he is aging very slowly.. maybe he was born in 600BC lol
it's all that coca cola.
Literally 0 financial stress.
Definitely Adrenochrome....
Munger reminiscing of his time in 600bc.. the good old days haha. What a legend
100 shares of WHEEL, to the moon!
Jeez i knew buffet was old, but the madman has been investing since 600.BC
The magic of compound interest
The magic of insider trading
Only Warren Buffett could look at Aesop's work and be like, "I don't think he put enough thought into this."
National RV went out of business 7 years after this clip was recorded.
Yeah, he talked up trailing PE, big mistake, I wonder what the forward PE was.
What Mr. Buffett really explains is why there are so many more traders than investors.
interesting comment, please elaborate
@Dig Byck interesting perception
@@learnsomethingneweveryday1539 in addition to Charlie's comments, people trader rather than invest because they don't take into account these ideas that businesses should be weighed wholly rather than just on the price of the stock, or they do realise this but think they can just buy at some discount price, wait to get to its true value, then sell and repeat for any stock. Both of these description are more describing traders rather than investors.
Michael Hooper If your read chapter 8 of the intelligent investor it talks about Mr market. Whether you are identified as an investor or trader if you business is being offered for higher than its intrinsic value then it will behoove you to sell.
@@ezirikeezirike True, I based my comment from those findings
10 seconds of awkward silence...Buffet: “is that it Charlie?” Lol
I admit I was watching charlie the whole time, waiting for him to show some signs of life.
Pure gold. Old men have all the best advice if we would only listen and not laugh at them !
I used to watch mr Munger when he is old and not smiling. This clip he seem pleased,look like he’s smiling
Meds
Nobody can become financially successful overnight. They put in background work but we tend to see the finished part. Fear is a dangerous component, hindering us from taking bold steps we need in other to reach our goals. you have to contend with inflation, recession, decisions from the Feds and all. I was able to increase my portfolio by $289k in months. You have to seek for help in the right places.
I think it's not always about fear, Sometimes realistic factors discourage people from reaching their goals in life. For instance, I've tried investing in the stock market several times but always got discouraged by fluctuations of stock value
This is the problem! Most times people with little or no knowledge of the stock market try investing by themselves. It once happened to me, then I learned my lesson and contacted a US-based finance consultant by name Catherine Morrison Evans and everything changed. In in the first quarter of this year i made $370k and counting.
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@@bob.weaver72 I looked Catherine up out of curiosity and she seem pretty proficient, thanks for sharing
December 22nd, 2008 National RV went out of Business
scndblj I had a feeling that would happen
scndblj I was looking for this
The 2008 mortgage crisis. If people cant even afford their home how are they going to buy rvs?
Lots of years between when this was filmed and then. It even hit a record high in the meantime.
And they posted losses for 3 straight years starting the year after this video.
Always so much fun to watch two old men talk about business, after they’ve made more money than all of us put together will, in our entire lifetimes!
Reminds me of the two old guys from the Muppets lol
🤣
Arranging table while listening question.
And than answers "Actually It's very SIMPLE".
I wonder what George Washington and friends thought when Warren was telling them this story?
He explains this so well. This is also a great answer to why high growth stocks do better in the current low interest rate environment (you can delay profits in favor of growth for a longer time without adverse affect on the present value i.e. you can wait a lot longer for your birds in the bush since the cost of opportunity is lower).
Exactly why government treasuries need low interest rates to prop up business and jobs.
Man, National RV sounds like a pretty solid company! I’ve got some cash sitting around and have been hoping to find a great company to invest in. I think it would pair well with all of the Blockbuster stock that I own.
Yeah I'm curious what happened that it was that great and then went bust 2 years later .lol
@@mattstopa9436 it was "undervalued" for a reason
???
@@mattstopa9436 it was 7 YEARS later during the GFC because they were probably ALL selling under finance.
@@MaxwellJWhite maybe. But it was 7 years later during the GFC that it went bankrupt. And MOST RVs are DEPENDENT on being financed. Hint hint.
They have such an interesting, brilliant relationship. Their relationship magnifies their individual brilliance.
National RV went bust in 2008. Gotta laugh.
Seems to me it was high margin business(at first) but no moat. Also I suspect the overall market was not growing.
@@rujotheone any downturn, those are the first type businesses to go because that's the first expense people cut out....
Priceless
So predictable
@@W.C. how would an individual apply all this on small scale investments/personal pensions
Thank you for uploading this short videos where Buffet and Munger are answering questions. It's very mind opening listening their insights.
Thank you for taking the time to watch!
Aesop say's A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.
Buffet acknowledges its a good investment equation but he is always interested in only 2 things
1) What's the interest rate?
2) When you will get it?
Case 1: If interest rate is only 5%, but from the bush you will get 2 birds after 5 years, Buffet will trade the bird in the hand because he's not interested in 5% interest and wait for 20 years to double it
Case 2: If the interest rate is 20%, he will not trade bird in the hand. Because he will wait for 5 years and double it and will compound it by himself
Brilliant !!
Managing money is different from accumulating wealth, and the lack of investment education in schools may explain why people struggle to maintain their financial gains. The examples you provided are relevant, and I personally benefited from the market crisis, as I embrace challenging times while others tend to avoid them. Well, at least my advisor does too, jokingly.
Investors should exercise caution with their exposure and exercise caution when considering new investments, particularly during periods of inflation. It is advisable to seek guidance from a professional or trusted advisor in order to navigate this recession and achieve potential high yields.
This is superb! Information, as a noob it gets quite difficult to handle all of this and staying informed is a major cause, how do you go about this are you a pro investor?
Through closely monitoring the performance of my portfolio, I have witnessed a remarkable growth of $483k in just the past two quarters. This experience has shed light on why experienced traders are able to generate substantial returns even in lesser-known markets. It is safe to say that this bold decision has been one of the most impactful choices I have made recently.
Wow, that’s stirring! Do you mind connecting me to your advisor please. I desperately need one to diversified my portfolio.
I’ve actually been looking into advisors lately, the news I’ve been seeing in the market hasn’t been so encouraging. who’s the person guiding you?
What a coincidence: Buffet uses the bird in the bush analogy as a simple response to the reporters question about the company National RV. Bird in the bush highlights how it can be better to have smaller guaranteed gains than risk the chance to get more or nothing at all. The company the reporter mentions illustrates the risk of the birds in the bush flying away: After this interview held in 2000, National RV reached an ATH next year, but went into bear market territory and eventually bankrupt in 2007.
The guy who asked the question forgot to mention it was a highly leveraged business, as all auto dealers or truck dealers or RV dealers. Solely based on sales and low interest rates.
The two of them are so freakin adorable. Especially Munger.
Charlie and Warren is the greatest bromance in history. The have a better routine than Crosby and Hope or Sinatra and Martin, or even Walhberg and Ferrell.
Been trying to find out how buffet mathematically measure how to value stocks.. This clip give real examples by thinking in perpetuity! Thank you very much for bringing it out!
These 2 legends redefine AGMS to be a moment for governance and teaching class.
According to motorhome.com:
National RV Holdings Inc. shuttered its Perris, California, headquarters and factory on
November 30, 2007, and permanently furloughed all of the company’s 600 employees. National RV Inc., which manufactured Class A motorhomes under the names Dolphin, Pacifica, Sea Breeze, Surf Side, Tradewinds and Tropi-Cal, lost more than $80 million in the last five years and its stock was removed recently from the NYSE.
National’s Acting Chief Executive Officer Dave Humphreys announced: “We are saddened to let go of our excellent employees, especially so close to the holidays, and even more so because National’s motorhomes have never been better than they are today.”
Warren Buffett recites a 600 B.C. investment equation that he wrote
Charlie is Zen, he don't waste an ounce of the energy he draws from the universe.💫
National RV company stock mentioned by the audience member went bankrupt 8 years later (in 2008).
SirMo lmao
What happened to National RV? The stock got delisted in 2007 after apparently losing 80 million dollars the last 5 consecutive years.
All Legends. People shouldn’t think they can become a brain surgeon by going to a weekend lecture or buying any single book. In my experience i have been caution in this high risk game and determination is the most important factor here. Investing your money is a financial reaction that leads to great wealth in the future.
I’m puffed by your words. You made it clear and simple.
Ahmet Nuri kedici I agree
Ahmet The part about investing is a wise financial movement. I really like it. Do you have any idea to share.
Great comment. Not everyone understands the opportunity that comes with information and knowledge about the market. It is good to be a beginner and be guided.
jessica megan yeah I do have someone that is well paid at what he does. His remunerative market value is at top notch.
Boy did these two sure mastered the game of money!
That's Rule of 72. You take a return value/percentage of return you expect and divide it to 72 you get the year(s) in which it should double. Here Bird in hand = two in bush. Thats doubling your money. 5% he mentions and guaranteed in five years thats a grab. As it actually takes 14 years to double your money and he mentions 14% it takes 5 years to double. For 20% it takes 3.6 years to double hence 5 years is a pass. Just a rough approach in calculating things.
I agree 100% - I've always said that I'd prefer to be in a bird's bush than taking two in my hand..lol
For anyone interested, National RV did not in anyway present this kind of value in the years following this.
And why was that?
If you watch a bunch of videos from one person, do they become one of the 5 people you spend time with?
Stephen Gillie no but they can still be your hero and model.
Yes. You will start thinking the same way dont forget to include Dan Pena
So much food for thought. Such humble and wise characters.
What if you don't spend time with even one person and value your own company?
@@snarskistomas forget to include Dan Pena
Why was it great to see these two gentlemen together?
Thankss man! Your channel is awesome
Totally makes sense, except the phrase is making the point that the birds are in fact in a bush...and are not guaranteed to EVER be in your hand, thus you aught to take the opportunity you have in front of you instead of forgoing it for something that could, but may never, materialize
Finally!
Seriously, this entire speech is built on Buffet misunderstanding a fable.
I could have sworn i saw this some where before now im like oh 20 years went by
Munger is like a Buddhist Monk Jedi. A caucasian 'yoda' I guess.
National RV was delisted from the NYSE and went out of business in 2007 -- 7 years after this was filmed.
9:22-9:30 is where Charlie describes investment strategies that are different from the duo’s approach.
If Berkshire Hathaway was ‘The Thunderbirds’ then Charlie would have to been ‘Brains.’ I can watch and listen to Munger’s 95 years of knowledge all day long.
These guys were great in Trading Places.
That title is so OG man, lol
Charlie's a man of few words
The exact opposite meaning of the phrase. It means that having something is more valued than potential things you may never get.
Andrew Irish Listen to him again.... He states that the originator of the quote didn't know about interest rates and the interest rate + projected earnings is the deciding factor of which is more valuable. Also, you're assuming the birds will not leave the bush and an investor is assuming it will
Too good to be true usually is.
National RV filed for bankruptcy in 2007.
When was this ?
National RV Holdings Inc. shuttered its Perris, California, headquarters and factory on
November 30, 2007, and permanently furloughed all of the company’s 600 employees. National RV Inc., which manufactured Class A motorhomes under the names Dolphin, Pacifica, Sea Breeze, Surf Side, Tradewinds and Tropi-Cal, lost more than $80 million in the last five years and its stock was removed recently from the NYSE.
Are there any details on why did that happen?
@@egor.okhterov 2008
You'll never find two gentlemen of such humility, intelligence and strength of character.
The main points are divided return vs. interest a savings account might yield.Factoring in yearly inflation.
Sometimes a savings account returns a zero return due to inflation.
Not sure I follow Warren’s analogy here. “A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush” to me means: what you already have in your possession is worth more than the thing you don’t have in your possession, since you don’t have to take any risk to go out and get it. (By hunting in a bush, or whatever the situation.) I think as a moral lesson it means that sometimes it’s better to keep what you have and be satisfied. I guess you also could see it as conservative investment advice, i.e., sometimes it’s better to preserve your capital rather than risk it for something more.
If the utility of the bird in your hand is greater to you than the risk and utility of the x amount of birds in the bush, then you would not want to invest. So the way you view the meaning is still accurate, A decision not to invest, is still and investment decision. Now, on to the next bush, make that decision again. Is the bird in your hand worth more than what you think may be in the bush? If yes, then move on, if not, maybe you should invest your time and money in that bush.
"Is that it Charlie?" : )
I love how Warren laughs like Seth Rogen.
the only thing about the primer which was more clear was when will you get those birds!!! The million dollar question
The guy asking the questions was filling in his homework as they answered
damn his friend Charlie Munger actally served in world war 2 at age 19. Born: January 1, 1924 (age 96 years), Omaha, Nebraska, United States. thats really somthing to think about. he was born 55years after slavery was banned in USA.
The work "bush" sounds funny after this video clip.
The proverb is not Aesop’s, but from the Middle Ages. Aesop’s original story “The Kite and the Nightengale” concludes with a different proverb “A hungry stomach has no ear” which means that people desperate for life’s necessities cannot afford to indulge in arts and luxuries.
I like how they are both still alive. Is a competition on who is going to stay alive the longest. Hope you both make it to 125 and still sharp as a knife.
The secret is that coke he sips on
Yeah hes doctor wont allow him to drink that probably has juice in it or something.
I wanna see what happened to National RV the day after this meeting lol 😂🤣😂
Thats what my dad says when we go hunting. But of course, we come home empty handed far more than a truck bed thats full. But only brag when it comes back full
Did the national RV Idea work? I tried looking but it wasn't clear
I don’t think that’s what Aesop meant. The moral of the phrase is that of utility, not foresight in value. A bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush because you already have the bird in your hand, while the two in the bush are out of your control. On this tangent one bird in the hand is probably worth much more than 2 birds in the bush, as I’m sure Aesop would contend, because regardless of how many birds you may know are in the bush, you cannot harness any more value from that multitude of birds uncaught than you can from just the one you already have in hand.
Whole businesses mindset to frame the argument; personally speaking. *Note to self.
Anyone know what happened to National RV?
munger looks like an animatronic warren buffett
An investment equation they learned in their younger years 🙂
Why am I seeing two ads to start the video? Maybe less people would use ad blockers if ads weren't so excessive.
That's what they want.. don't give in, don't buy it. Just don't watch the videos that chose to put two ads in the beginning and charts will show the content creators that the strategy of ads before content doesn't pay out and will decide not to lose views and change their ways.
@@Tizxxx Does the content creator get to control that? I assumed the creator's choose to allow ads and Google chooses which ads (and how many) to show.
Not completely sure but I would believe they control it based on the timing of some ads.. (just before the major details of the videos or where normal commercial breaks would be if you're watching a daily news show) I wouldn't think TH-cam watches the video and decides to place them in such calculated points of videos. So I'm not knowledged on this but given my observations that is what I have concluded.
To pay for TH-cam
You're actually paying for the ads when you use an adblocker
Calculate the angular frequency of Charlie Munger's head (simple pendulum)
I spent so much time reading munger comments that i didn't notice that the video had ended!
Like Laurel and Hardy except crazy wealthy. I get relaxed when I listen to these 2.
National RV had only 7 more years left before declaring bankruptcy in 2007.
Thanks, was looking for this but didnt find anything
3:04 Rare to see munger laugh lol