The data, PowerPoints and Google Earth File along with a longer explanation is available here: ryanmcbeth.substack.com/p/oops Based on the analysis, I believe that there is almost no chance (a 0-5% chance) that intelligent life has visited Earth. 1. There seems to be a scarcity of life. 2. Earth may be difficult to detect. 3. The motivation of an alien to travel to Earth may be limited to defense - which means that the only reason we are alive as a species is that we havn't been visted. Special thanks to: Dr. Oisín Creaner, Assistant Professor in Physical Sciences at Dublin City University Professor Marco Thiel, PhD, University of Aberdeen (UK) Andy Silber, PhD PhD Student Robin Mentel, University College Dublin PhD Student Ethan from Northumbria University. PhD Student Roland Timmerman from Leiden Observatory Keane Halls from Bangor University Scott Madison, a “Smarty-Pants” from New Mexico Tech Ryan Frazee, Cosmologist, University of Kansas And Brian Drourr, professional astrophotographer Any mistakes I have made are solely my own. For uncensored video, check out my substack at: ryanmcbeth.substack.com Like my shirts? Get your own at: www.bunkerbranding.com/pages/ryan-mcbeth Want a personalized greeting: www.cameo.com/ryanmcbeth Watch all of my long form videos: th-cam.com/play/PLt670_P7pOGmLWZG78JlM-rG2ZrpPziOy.html Twitter: @ryanmcbeth Join the conversation: discord.gg/pKuGDHZHrz Want to send me something? Ryan McBeth Productions LLC 8705 Colesville Rd. Suite 249 Silver Spring, MD 20910 USA
edit: also en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chirality_(chemistry) the topic of chirality and the "handedness" of the molecules making up life and food sources, is fascinating too
Our galaxy is mind boggling large. Its about 100,000 light-years across with around 400 billion stars each with its own collection of planets and there are art last 200 billion and perhaps as many as 2 trillion galaxies in the known universe. The sheer scale means that it's a virtual certainty that not only does life exist, it must be fairly common and Intelligent life can't be too uncommon in this vastness. However, the distances involved are even more astonishing. The nearest star is over 4 light years away and the next nearest galaxy is is 2.5 million light years. The fastest man made object is the Parker space probe which is traveling at 350,000 miles per hour or 563,270.4 kilometers per hour. At these speeds it would take over 8,000 years to travel to the closest star, proxima centauri, which is 4.37 light years from earth. Even if we were to travel at a significant percentage of the speed of light, it would still take decades to travel just to the next star let alone anywhere else in the galaxy. Not only are the distances so vast, but the estimated age of the universe, at 14 billion years, is also mind numbing. We've existed for only the tiniest fraction of that time and only been space going for the last few decades. So consider this, for us to meet intelligent aliens they have to not only exist in relative close proximity to us but they also have to exist at a time that overlaps with our existence and have reached technological advancement enough to get here. So, while there is almost certainly other intelligent life in the universe, even if it were reasonably common, the odds of us overlapping in both time and space with an alien civilization capable of visiting is vanishingly small.
@@lenger1234 A lot of current thinking is that life as we know it is a lot more rare than those statistics you're thinking of would lead you to believe. Just the folding of chromosomes in a particular manner to allow intelligence is extremely unlikely - even in a universe of planets. Our planet/sun combo is also way more rare than we thought even 20 years ago. Add to that the theory Ryan mentions, and it's entirely possible that life - especially intelligent life - may be ultra rare.
@@brentm9848 but there's also concepts such as the anthropic principle which, depending on if you're in the weak or strong camp, indicate these studies about life being rare are likely flawed. It should be noted that an often-understated answer to the Fermi Paradox is that sapient life is perfectly abundant across the universe and we just lack sufficient understanding to identify their signatures.
I like Bill Waterson's take in Calvin and Hobbes -- "Sometimes I think the surest sign that intelligent life exists elsewhere in the universe is that none of it has tried to contact us."
how could a species incapable of society without monopolization of violence comprehend interstellar friendship? if I was an alien race capable of watching us evolve and seeing what we've done I wouldn't contact until we've figured our shit out either. the fact that scientific exploration and discovery was dismissed as clout chasing in this argument assumes an extra terrestrial society has the same perspective on recourses as we do. if their technology has advanced beyond consumption, and could perhaps be truly renewable, a concept easily conceivable in our current reality, fusion exists, than perhaps we really do just need to put the gun down.
“Space is big. You just won't believe how vastly, hugely, mind-bogglingly big it is. I mean, you may think it's a long way down the road to the chemist's, but that's just peanuts to space.” ― Douglas Adams, The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy
This. I try to tell people that it’s just not feasible that this would happen. Unless aliens live to be like 15 million years old or something & a 2 million year, one way trip isn’t a big deal.
@@beepboop204 Time. That's a good one. Why is it that when you have 5 minutes left in your work day and you look at the clock again only one minute has passed? And when your alarm clock rings and you roll over to get 5 more minutes of rest you end up 20 minutes behind schedule?
@@goldenageofdinosaurs7192 What if they travel interdimensional or fold space? If they use gravity drive, they can also alter time. If this is happening, we need to think outside the box to understand this phenomenon.
Mad respect for Ryan going way out of his normal area of interest and doing a bang-up job of analyzing the likelihood of aliens, a subject that I spend way too many hours watching vids about and thinking about.
He is still a human sizing the universe to its own self .,size is a very limiting factor for a human .The person creating a universe is a of different size or not limited by size ,size is our jail .
Alien life is already visiting our planet as the UFO hearing in Congress has proven on Wednesday. We are not alone - just on the 2004 Tic Tac UFO encounter alone.
It's not just Mickey D's ice cream machine. My local Burger Royalty finger food emporium claims its machine is under maintenance so often, I keep wondering if it can qualify for replacement under the State's Lemon Law. This cuts down on the number of options if and when an alien should arrive and say "Take me to your (functioning) ice cream machine."
The chances of other heavier elements being present in a Star system while carbon isn’t kinda raises some questions as to why that would be. Especially since we have detected the elements we consider necessary for life in interstellar clouds, along with organic molecules. The building blocks are all over the place. It’s really just a question of how common abiogenesis is, or how likely is some past civilization to be willing and able to seed life throughout the cosmos.
Ryan, your video is the most entertaining and imaginative presentation of this issue/question I've ever seen. Very, very, very clever. Even outstanding. And I agree with your conclusion. Probably because we are both former military. Military people assess and think in terms of threat and mission survivability. However... Some observations: is it REALLY a proper assumption that creatures with strong "religious" beliefs would not be highly motivated to evangelize? To reveal their truth. Or to destroy those who do not believe? If that religion, like Christianity or Islam believed in a universal objective metaphysics, Creator, moral code...why would that be like talking to a tree frog? As an intelligence guy...you need to reassess your own assumptions. I don't think you appreciate the POWER of religious belief. I am not saying aliens cannot be vastly more intelligent, but that hardly makes humans mere tree frogs. Humans are sentient and capable of pretty cool things. In other words, Ryan, do not dismiss "religion" as none scientific gobbledygook. Religion, the acknowledgement that creatures are not the Creator is the gigantic looming issue and question of existence. There is no larger question or compelling appetite to understand. Remember that religion is the undergirding assumption about reality itself including science. That belief is everything. You may dismiss it because you "believe" in "reason" and science. But science and reason have limits. And pushing limits is the very nature of exploration and power projection. To dismiss this fact of existence is to proceed at your peril. I don't think you appreciate the magnitude of religion in the foundation of consciousness itself: civilization, science, thought, art, law, quest, war. Whether human or otherwise. Just a caveat... A very important one.
A planetary Mc Donalds, with the ice cream machine broken due to stubbornly poor design, also on fire and infested by an intelligent parasite determined to make itself extinct.
@@johnsnyder3443I would disagree with your critique. As Ryan points out, the only reasonable way for life on Earth to have been detected is through the presence of Oxygen, which on Earth is produced exclusively by non-sentient life. More prominent traces of CO2, Sulphur, or H2O can be written off as evidence of volcanic activity. It wouldn't be until detection of enriched Uranium or Plutonium that sentient life becomes likely. That assumes they even notice the Oxygen or Uranium through the thick Nitrogen atmosphere and magnetic field. Realistically, I think Ryan is right to say that it's too unlikely.
Got help us when they pick up the radio and television signals from the 1930s and start speaking German very enthusiastically saying they are on their way soon...
That would be both cool and funny. But why would they know morse code and why would they know and use our alphabet and language? It would seem that they KNOW "who dis" if they're using our language and alphabet. Unless, of course, ALL alien life forms really do speak English...
"I think it is much more likely that the reports of flying saucers are the result of the known irrational characteristics of terrestrial intelligence, rather than the unknown, rational efforts of extraterrestrial intelligence." -- Richard Feynman
I don't agree with this statement. To me being alone in the universe is unsettling because it's up to humanity to keep life going. Not being alone opens up new possibilities.
There is almost certainly life out there. Problem is, the speed of light rule is a hard and fast barrier to travel between stars, and given the distances involved, it is unlikely that we will ever be visited by aliens, or vice versa.
I would remind of Clarke’s Three Laws ( Arthur C.Clarke) When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong. The only way of discovering the limits of the possible is to venture a little way past them into the impossible. Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.
@@johnjones_1501The universe is also really really old. The sun might be a fourth generation star -- which means the original star went supernova and turned into dust, slowly coalesced into another star, which also went supernova etc for up to three complete cycles before our sun was formed.
Your analogies are really well done. This is really thorough and accessible. You're turning into a science TH-camr as well as an investigative journalist.
He is great, but this is not really journalism. This is an expert in a field applying his skills and showing us. I studied journalism for 3 years and this isn't really what we learn (although some journalists are of course experts)
No. TH-camrs should not be allowed to see simp comments like this. He's turning into a guy who thinks he's an expert in everything because he's an expert in one thing. This video could be about any topic and the way he's approaching the topic is bad in so, so many ways. But he'll never figure it out because of the standard youtube piles of praise commenters like this.
Good analysis of this one scenario. I’m suprised there was no caveat about that. There are others that have nothing to do with traveling vast distances.. such as the person he used in his graphic. Grusch and his best guess based on what he saw in the documents. What am I supposed to think with the buzz word “misinformation” in the title, and the a very narrow approach to this topic. Very lacking…. Anyway, if time is fundamental to the theory, you’re never ever going to there. Similar to his distance from KS to Biloxi, if he can’t phrase this concept then he is leaving a lot off the table. Ask a physicist about time lol.
Alien life is already visiting our planet as the UFO hearing in Congress has proven on Wednesday. We are not alone - just on the 2004 Tic Tac UFO encounter alone...
It's a great example of how humans can't get away from emotional thinking. We assume others think like us. I personally would think curiosity as a reason would be nearly 100% whereas defence say 10% because I don't work in defence so don't have a bias to think that way. It's impossible for us to know what another alien will value
I saw an interview with an astronomist who made the observation that if space were the size of the Pacific Ocean, we've looked at an area the size of a glass of water for life. If an advanced civilization had the chance to explore 10000x more space than us, they've looked through a dozen barrels of water. Out of the Pacific Ocean.
And as long as we have to assume that the speed of light is a definite barrier, it's hardly possible to get much beyond that. Even if there are advanced species observing earth, they may merely see it as it was millions of years ago.
@@senatorjosephmccarthy2720 Two things, first, OP specified that we've searched the "glass of water" for life, not that that glass is all we've looked at. Second, you're right, there's a reason that when people talk about how many galaxies, or how big space is, they qualify it by saying "in the observable universe" because there is a finite distance that we can observe. That distance is mind bogglingly big, but to bring it back to the ocean analogy, we haven't yet seen the whole ocean, we're just comparing the area we've looked for life to the area we know exists, we don't know how big the ocean actually is.
@@seanabbott798the scientists spoke prematurely since he doesn’t know the size of the universe. Just as Ryan and all of the naysayers, your thought process is quite logical, but recent US airforce encounter with UFO still needs to be explained kinetically. Without logical explanation of the recorded object your logical discussion is wrong explanation of the UFO sighting and to our highly trained pilots. Low probability doesn’t mean 0. I don’t kill new primitive life I find in nature, and our current human logic doesn’t encompass all logics in another 100 years. I didn’t even got into quantum theory and multiverse.
@@JohnWilliamNowakbut primitive AI in 3 years time can search every McDonalds for a specific ice cream flavor under 5 seconds. Ryan and all of the naysayers, your thought process is quite logical, but recent US airforce encounter with UFO still needs to be explained kinetically. Without logical explanation of the recorded object your logical discussion is wrong explanation of the UFO our highly trained pilots saw. Low probability doesn’t mean 0. I don’t kill new primitive life I find in nature, and our current human logic doesn’t encompass all logics in another 100 years. I didn’t even got into quantum theory and multiverse.
As a astrophysics and Fermi paradox enthusiast who could talk about that topic for days without pause, my first reaction at the beginning of your video was "Oh, no, here it comes". How many errors would I find, despite knowing how well informed you always explain many other topics? Well - none, dude! Awesome work! Special props for the phosphorus topic, this is NOT well known, even in the "Fermi-Paradox"-sphere! You did your homework, sir! Half way through I was already expecting, that you will give special thanks to a bunch of astrophysicists. You don't disappoint!
What about the possibility of UAPs being interdemensional? That point seems to have been completely ignored. I'm not saying this to be a troll but because I really am curious and feel like this should have at least been addressed before almost totally dismissing the idea of UAPs being here.
@@Britt-r3r What if they travel by worm hole? What if they probe our anuses? You can pose an infinite what if scenarios, it doesn't make this so called testimony more credible.
@@Britt-r3r What do you mean by "interdimensional"? Once you realize that you can't actually define this in terms of known physics, why not replace the term with "magic".
This guy has a knack for picking up information and understanding it well enough to create analogies for it. He could be a lawyer for sure. He isnt an astrophysicist or a chemist but he really got a lot of the right information to analyze this problem. Ive read a lot about all of this information as well and he reallt hit the nail on the head about what things are problems and what we are looking for to get the answers we need. Im impressed.
Haha I thought the same my youtube is 70% aliens, 29% Ukraine, 1% fishing videos lol. I hope he keeps up with the UAP/alien videos too. It's like he read my mind. He didn't account for one thing.... we don't know what we don't know yet. There's other elements and physics that we don't yet know, this fact makes pretty much anything possible. Yes the universe is huge and spread out so much, this fact doesn't mean anything, it's clear they are here. We almost all know someone who's seen one. My mom saw a ufo that took up the whole sky in 1968 over for knox. I think the zoo hypothesis is the most likely.
Thank you, that was brilliant - and brilliant in every way! I loved the science, the logical analysis, the very funny, totally accessible and absolutely appropriate analogies, and the excellent way you cited your scientific supporters at the end. You’re changing the zeitgeist ! Thanks for this, and for all your other videos. Very best wishes. (Btw, great to know that the President has your phone number… 😊)
To those interested in the topic, check out von neumann probes. We often make the assumption that organic beings would make the trip to earth in these scenarios.
Right, I mean we already sent unmanned probes out of our solar system, and have autonomous probes exploring alien planets in our own system. What will we be able to do in a couple more decades if we were to put real effort behind it? What could we do in a few centuries?
There’s no reason for self replicating probes to not also create biological clones of beings to interact with other intelligent biological species, and those clones being considered as disposable as the automated probes themselves.
Bravo to you and your many contributors. This is the most measured and lucid examination of the complexity and perils of interstellar travel I can remember
One question that needs to be addressed which isn't with Drake's equation is: Given some percentage chance of life existing elsewhere in the galaxy, and given the vast amounts of time involved at a galactic scale, what is the chance that life has evolved elsewhere _at the same time_ as us.
What are the chances that it's not alien life but terrestrial life. It may not be terrestrial life from now it could be terrestrial life from the future or the past. And it sounds a lot like extra dimensional technology. Think of the tardis bigger on the outside is the tardis actually moving through space when it travels or is it simply changing the location of its portal.
You're not the first to bring up that fact. One scientist brought up a scenario that Earth receives a signal from a distant planet thousands of years ago, Earth responds & once the Earth response reaches that planet. All life on that planet is dead due to the parent star has died or some cataclysms occurred hundred of years ago on that planet that wiped out all life. All that Earth finally achieve interstellar travel, & all we find are abandoned ruins of dead civilization. Or they detect us, & sent a scientific expedition toward Earth, takes a couple of hundred of years, & by the time they arrive on Earth. The human race is extinct due to a climate catastrophe or simply wiped ourselves out from a nuclear war.
Time actually is not such a factor here. If an intelligent species gains access to FTL technologies, there’s no denying its pretty much here to stay now. An extinction event of cosmic proportions would need to occur to wipe them out, and so life from the past is far more likely than more recent life closer to our age, as they have a boost in gaining this survivability advantage, while us terrestrials are at the mercy of nature. So really it’s more a function of their mere distance from us because of how hard detecting a civilization like us is.
Watching the video, it’s great how he goes to the computer science side and tracks the authenticity of people’s’ interest in the story. That part is legitimate. And that’s where his authority on the subject ends. In the rest of the video, I feel, he speaks from ignorance. When it comes to the science of time and distance, he’s missing a part of the picture. He talks about physical science, but it’s a 19th century depiction of reality. There is quantum theory out there, including theories about multiple dimensions, which suggests a relationship to time, distance and space that he’s totally not taking into account. Some theories talk about folding space time, or relating in non-3D planes of dimension, as a means of what we might otherwise call “interstellar” and “intergalactic” travel. Also, the UFO (UAP) record shows evidence of devices/craft which may even be coming from our planet’s oceans, underground, and phasing in and out of thin air within our atmosphere. Are these craft from another planet? Are they from another dimension that is actually right stacked on top of / within where we are currently living in space? We don’t know. Could UAP’s be human-made devices that are being kept secret from the greater public by a black-budget government intelligence program and defense contractors? All possibilities have to be considered. Then when he talks about finding intelligent life, he loses me. David Grusch in his testimony to Congress as well as his public interview was careful not to describe the makers of these anomalous devices/phenomena as living, because we are unsure what the evident alleged non-human intelligence is, let alone whether it is living or not. So for this video creator, there’s no need to talk about the building blocks of life, because there are so many other possibilities for the building blocks of intelligence besides life. There is a great deal about the universe we do not understand. Why does “dark matter” appear to account for 95% of the universe? Why do quantum experiments consistently show the outcome of experiments to be affected based on the thoughts of the observers? Why does it appear that two particles making up a quantum pair, huge distances apart across the universe, still can behave in predictable ways, in relationship to one another? What happens at the singularity of a black hole? And how does it work that light is both a particle AND a wave?! We know in history that when Galileo championed Copernicus’ heliocentric model of the cosmos, a Cardinal of the Catholic Church (the then-authorities on the nature of reality) would have regarded him as foolish and to be discredited. Magic is just science that hasn’t been figured out yet. We have been living in a time that pays too little attention to the mysterious simply because it hasn’t been measured yet. Don’t let the difficult to understand be an obstacle to pursuing the truth.
time needs to be added to the alien equation; not only do aliens need to form a civilization, but they have to do it at the same time as humans. those are big odds
My initial draft covered time, and the evolution window between when life develops, and when the local star explodes. What I realized was that, since we really didn’t know how long it might take for life to develop outside of earth, it’s not something we could speculate on.
I believe we aren't the first... nor the last society to develop... there are societies that could be a million years advanced of us and likewise there are societies still bubbling in a pond somewhere figuring this living thing out...
The Human race has only had Electricity and modern science for what 120 ? Now imagine an Alien race that is 1000 to 10,000 years in advance of us and have super science to travel faster than the speed of light = We dont have to imagine because Alien life is already visiting our planet as the UFO hearing in Congress has proven on Wednesday.
I think the biggest thing about Grush's explanation that makes it fall apart for me is that he claims we have been reverse engineering alien technology in order to make our advances in military tech, but this does not at all line up with how military and broader general technological advancements have been made. Rather than being made in sudden leaps and bounds as we deciper and reverse engineer extremely advanced tech, we see technologies that were first theorized decades ago being put into the prototyping stage, and then after further decades of development finally getting put into full production. Modern advancements like advanced nano-scale computer chips and adaptive cycle engines are things that were theorized in independent academic papers 30+ years ago and are only now starting to put into practice.
if you actually watched or read the testimony you would know grusch claims the opposite, that we have been trying for 80 years and still cannot reverse engineer anything
I heard that the wire that goes back to shape with heat and the invisible material at certain angles came from alien tech. It doesnt have to be crazy wild technology, just a few tips and hints to get material science to the finish line would count as help from crashed UFOs.
@@paddington1670 100 percent false you can trace the patents and development of all these things, they are 100 percent human invention , grusch said there has been no successful reverse engineering
The critical misgiving with this logic, is that it assumes that another species shares our logic. Not a criticism of yourself, but I do think Humans are far too egotistical when it comes to the infallibility of our own logic.
First, logic is not just thinking or philosophical. Logic has a mathematical foundation, as originally codified by Bertrand Russell. Any intelligence advanced enough to travel the vastness of space will understand mathematics, as it is as universal as laws of physics, chemistry and biology. Second, there is a metric called the Kardashev Scale that quantifies the level of technical advancement of a species and civilization based on its ability to utilize energy. For example, a Type 2 civilization can completely harness the energy and resources of its host star in its solar system. This could be through mega structures akin to Dyson Spheres or Ring Worlds, for example. No matter, these types of objects would also be signatures for advanced intelligent life. Incidentally, the scale arguably can go to a Level 5 civilization, which assumes the existence of Multiverses. Imagine what god-like powers beings who can control and harness the energy of entire universes would have, and by extension what need they would have to visit earth. It would be akin to going to an ant hill in Africa to watch the intestinal bacteria in the ant guts. They could no more communicate with us - let alone have us understand them - than we could do the same with gut bacteria.
If they made it to space, their capacity for logic is self evidence. Maybe they have found us and are studying a primitive society taking it's very first steps in to chemical powered space flight.
Ryan, you've been just an incredibly welcome breath of fresh air. Your content is so very well researched and explained without any level of bias. You always apply critical and reasonable thinking, and this is something that is sadly missing from society. Keep up the excellent work!
Damn that was one hell of a video 😍This is the link you send to those friends that just took this hearing on face value, and decided we have been visited and they crashed into McDonalds .
I tried to watch this video (or rather, the original) a few min after it was published and it wouldn't load. Glad to see it's back up! And love your content! (I'm also a bit of a nerd, and studying to be an analyst, so your content is right up my alley, and I've learned a lot!)
@@RyanMcBethProgramming I can see the difference in run times 😅 Not gonna lie - I was kind of excited for a 41 minute video. 28 is fine though! Love your content!
Couple of points: - Resource allocation depends on scale: at $58k trip to Everest is a once in a life time thing for most people, but if Bezos lives another 80 years, he could fund an expedition every second and not run out of money. So if you have the resources of a dozen solar systems at your disposal, suddenly sending a ship to every mildly interesting world isn't that expensive. -We keep statistics on everything: We keep statistics on how many mcFlurries are functioning. We track what elements are where in the galaxy. You think we wouldn't place sensor stations of various kinds out to every single world in the galaxy if we could? - We really like spying on our neighbors: international diplomacy is built on espionage. Hell, we'll happily spy on our closest allies, just to be safe. If we think we can get away with it, we spy. Presumably, if we were aware of a primitive alien civilization on another world, we'd spy on them. - Tech grows exponentially: and we don't know where that process stops. There may be simple solutions to all sorts of things we think are hard, radically reducing the costs.
In order to spy on someone, we would have to send something there. How long will that take to get there? Voyager 1 would take 75000 years to reach Alpha Centauri, the closest star and if I am not mistaken that is the fastest or close to the fastest craft we have ever made. So there is a time issue as well - what do you and I care if our descendants in 75000 (+ 3 years to send the answer back to Earth) find something really cool to spy on at Alpha Centauri? Are we gonna fund it?
To which I say, how do you account for time? Time to traverse the universe and return back to where they came from. With findings to report back to their own beings. Unless a one way trip is all that matters, considering they live thousands upon thousands of light years (trillions even?). Or do they call home their interactions with us. And if so, are they not limited by speed of light because otherwise their own civilizations would have died many, many times over before getting word back. And let’s just say that they are much closer to us than we can imagine. Our own galaxy, the odds of that are beyond astronomical. With that vastness of JUST our observable universe, that would be like in this vastness, lightning hitting at the same place (within the tiniest span of measurement man can conjure) and at the exact, exact same time (after all, our species has not been around that long). It seems incomprehensible.
The problem is that we just don’t know enough it could be that there is intelligent life with godlike powers like the Q collective but it could also be that we are alone in the universe so based on the data we have it is just not conceivable that aliens have already been too earth. Edit for spelling errors.
Ryan, you have a way of making very technical and complex subject matter and breaking it down in a way for us that aren't experts understand easily. I like to consider myself intelligent and educated, but I'm not sure I could have understood your analysis easier by any other means, and all in 30 mins. Keep up the great work. We're all watching 😀
Very impressive analysis. I'll opine that our galactic neighbors more likely resemble cyanobacteria than Little Gray Men. And that Warp Drive seems to require large quantities of Unobtainium. And, it still violates causality.
> Based on the analysis, I believe that there is almost no chance (a 0-5% chance) that intelligent life has visited Earth. More accurately, "based on today's understanding of science and technology, and some reasonable but unproven assumptions I've made,, there is almost no change that intelligent life has visited earth". I have yet to see convincing evidence of such visitation, but your confidence in our current understanding seems overly optimistic. When I follow science news, it seems as if every new tool winds up exposing problems with our best current understanding. For example, galaxies which seem to be too old, according to our models. This is not a rare thing, it's quite common. "Up til now, we've convinced ourselves that no pulsar could spin faster than X, but now we've found one, so we may need to revise our models. My point is: what confidence would the physicists have had, based on existing understandings, before the new discovery? Basically, they can't accurately calculate one, because they don't know what they don't know, or what will be discovered next year. Trying to calculate the percentage likelihood of an unknown life form with unknown technology having visited Earth needs to have very huge error bars - and we can't even calculate how huge. Sure it could be fun to try, but it would be unwise to give much credence to the results. I'm not making any case for alien visitation. I'm making the case that this is a question with extremely important unknown unknowns which make such calculations very close to meaningless. Like trying to confidently predict how long it will take to invent time travel or "warp drives".
The thing that personally frustrates me about UFO enthusiasm is that 'alien' means the exact same thing as 'magic made X thing happen here.' It's not useful because aliens are magic for all intents and purposes, just cloaked in the language of popular scientism. If you can say 'an unknown technology can do X' and X can be anything, than the claim is the same as saying 'this is possible because an elf could do it.' This is why many UFO-proponents respond to this reality the same way the fanatically religious do, 'how dare you question my belief.'
The thing that personally frustrates me about vaccine enthusiasm is that 'vaccine' means the exact same thing as 'magic made X disease gone' It's not useful because vaccines are magic for all intents and purposes, just cloaked in the language of popular scientism. If you can say 'a new vaccine can cure X' and X can be anything, than the claim is the same as saying 'this is possible because an elf could do it.' This is why many vaccine-proponents respond to this reality the same way the fanatically religious do, 'how dare you question my belief.' See how that sounds? This could apply to literally any group of people with vocal beliefs. And no, I'm not an anti-vaxxer.
@@chrisblashill7265 Right. It's a cool idea but it runs into a few issues. Sure, I buy the premise that it's possible to mimic what a lower tech person would see as "magic" using "sufficiently advanced technology". But sometimes the best solution to a problem is not the magic solution. Why would alien craft in our atmosphere look like blurs of light when they could be ordinary aerodynamic craft? Even better, they could disguise as meteors or birds or other natural or human-created phenomena. What's the point of making technology that seems like magic when that is rarely the optimal solution? Technology, no matter how advanced, will also eventually run into the constraints of physics. I'm pretty confident that the laws of thermodynamics, causality, and gravity are not going to be violated by any technology, no matter how advanced. So when one of these UAPs suddenly change direction, where does the energy come from for that change? Where does the waste heat go? Maybe some people consider that a small-minded attitude but I will continue to believe in the forward flow of time and the reality of mass and energy, thanks.
@@MarcosElMalo2Please...unicorns don't fart, too classy for it, doesn't stop Bigfoot from always saying "it was the unicorn" everytime. Always makes the pixies giggle.
This excercise was awesome. Very good attempt at defending an argument with sound reasoning and scientific logic. I really enjoyed it. I think it is exactly how these topics should be approached. What you just explained is what we know and understand based on our current scientific level of development and the evidence it provides. Now, that doesn't rule out the chances that our understanding and knowledge is limited, but that should not come as a surprise to anybody because that's exactly how science works.
Ryan... I've watched a LOT of you vids & really appreciate them. The first post was extra special for me. I already read this video (text) yesterday & knew where this was going. However, seeing into your raw work was its own treat (I'm not sure you wanted us to see it, but *I* appreciated it). SO much behind the scenes work goes into your polished product. Ok, enough rambling from me. I'm sure you know what I'm saying. Here's a donation that is long overdue. Please keep us informed with your great videos. Thank you, Ryan! - David
@Ryan McBeth One of the things that bothered me about this process is the fact that the guy worked in Military Intelligence. When people hear that, they think about James Bond. Given your work in ISR, it might be nice for you to do a video describing what MI people do.
It's also funny that people are willing to believe every single high ranking person in the government and military and likely the government and military of every other country is lying but this guy, with no evidence, is telling the truth. Especially when the truth is that there are a bunch of aliens here who want to stay unseen but don't care about their maned ships crashing. The aliens are always a prop, never a player.
This video is just Ryan spending half an hour coming up with his own parameters for the Drake equation. Many much more knowledgeable people have already spent decades of research on estimating these values. Many reasonable estimates suggest a high likelihood of alien life. That paradox is why the Fermi Paradox and Great Filter theory were created. Ryan does not address any of the evidence for alien life or visitation. And, in fact, by Ryan's logic, human life does not exist either, purely by the high unlikelihood of it, despite any evidence to the contrary.
Hi. I'm a biologist and most of the descriptions of new species happen during monitoring expeditions. You don't just set out to find a new frog, you set out to see how the local populations of herpets (anfibians and non-avian reptiles) are doing, which will involve specimen collection and sometimes, those specimens are from previously unknown species
I liked the reports of investigations around hydrothermal vents. It seems that they frequently discover new/ previously unknown species/ life forms in the waters around such vents. As a competent chemist, I have a sound understanding of how simple molecules can form larger, more complex molecules, eventually forming living matter. The most reasonable/ expeditious way for such reactions to occur are for the gases to be dissolved in a solvent (water), for that solvent to be able to thoroughly mix the reactants (ocean currents) and for there to be a ready, constant supply of excess energy, for the making and breaking of bonds (in this case, heat). Hydrothermal vents seem like the most likely place for life to have formed on earth, and the most likely place for new life to continue forming (assuming that these 'new life forms' aren't eaten by existing life forms, first). Creationists will adamantly refuse to consider these things as possible, because they don't understand the VAST numbers of molecules involved in every interaction. They assume that 1 molecule of 'x' has to encounter 1 molecule of 'y' to form compound 'z,' completely oblivious to the reality that every reaction is going to involve so very many molecules, that we don't have a name for these numbers, representing them exponentially, instead. So they can't understand that even if the probability of natural, unguided reactions resulting in the formation of stable, self-assembling compounds, are infinitesimally small, then the fact that they are stable and self assembling, coupled with the VAST numbers of reactants involved, means that the outcome is almost guaranteed! But that's always the way, isn't it? The people who know nothing about a subject are always the ones who shout loudest about what they believe is impossible in regards to that subject...
I have one major takeaway. If we ever run across aliens out there, we better make damn sure they never learn where Earth is. By the way, Stephen Hawking came to the same conclusion. So, Ryan, I'd say you probably nailed it.
There is a comic book of all things that point that out, when two starships meet in intersteller space and the human ship trys to run, the Captain orders a change of course and explanies "Do you wnat to show them how to get to earth?". the coimc was a backup stories to Magnus Robot fighter around 1964.
I remember reading a short story about a human ship in deep space that meets an alien ship in deep space. Both have the same objective: to report back the existence of another intelligent species without giving away data that could be used to find the home world and wipe their own species out. After some period of tense standoff, each crew removes all tracking instrumentation and data regarding the location of their inhabited territory from the ship, and then they swap ships.
@@Delgen1951 They do this in the Halo series too. They have a thing called the "Cole Protocol" where they do a bunch of random slip-space jumps (hyperspace in halo) away from Earth or Earth colonies before they head back to Earth or anywhere important. Meanwhile on REAL Earth we're beaming our location out 24/7 lol.
Isn't that the basis of some science fiction movie (maybe independence day)? Aliens hear the signal sent out by aricebo (the one carl sagan championed), so they come here to wipe us out?
The often overlooked criteria is that this alien civilization also has to exist at the same time as us. Not to be all doom and gloom, but lets say there is an alien civilizatin 125 light years away that detects this incredibly weak and scattered radio signal, there is a good chance that we wont be here by the time they arrive, between overpopulation, running out of our VERY limited resources (I am including famine here), global warming, and war. Another great video Ryan :)
If the could get here... its probably because, 1. They have tremendously more advanced technology than us and could travel light years in a blink and 2. They not carbon based life forms...? Our science community always consider that life elsewhere will be human or carbon based.... arrogant views.
Next he needs to do a video to dispell all the "The world's going to end from __________(fill in the blank with whatever scare tactic they're using as of late)" nonsense they're constantly coming up with to get people to fund research departments. Global warming? Well if you're old enough you'll know that in the late 70's a bunch of the "climate experts" said the next ice age was just beginning after we had a couple of particularly nasty winter's, that was good for funding some university research departments for at least 5 years (God forbid they run out of money and then have to get job's in the private sector where they'd actually have to produce results from their work, starting to catch on yet?) Just off the top of my head here's a short list of all the things that "experts" have said was going to wipe us out since the 70's (unless of course we fund their research departments, still not catching on yet?); Next ice age Acid rain Ozone depletion Nuclear holocaust Killer Bee's (yes, seriously, they actually had all kinds of knee jerk reactive people convinced that killer bee's were going to wipe us out within the next 10 years, they even made a movie called The Swarm that Henry Fonda, Michael Caine, Olivia DeHavilland and other big name stars were in, just like nowadays how all the latest stars are in global warming catastrophe movies, still not catching on yet?) And now it's global warming they've got people convinced will wipe us out, how long did Al Gore say? In 20 years? 30 YEARS AGO!!!
When it comes to understanding the universe and figuring out how life started we are cavemen looking at a smartphone.Simply because we are here based on all the odds Ryan explained anything is possible in the universe.We are so arrogant we just started flying 100years ago
Thank you brother, I've been making this argument for years now(although on a not so technical way as you). I'm a scifi nerd (and worked for TSA for 14 years funny enough ahahaha) so people are always surprised that I dont believe we've ever been visited. Neil degrasse Tyson made a similar argument about how even the nearest habitable system (if there is life there) if they looked through a telescope, they're so far they would definitely be witnessing a pre human earth, even maybe a pre-life earth. So the chances of them sending craft at random and ending up here and finding is is... Well sadly very unlikely.
How about a scifi idea of earth originating space travelers whose civilization was wiped out on the planet, but remnants survived in nearby star systems with some returning throughout the millennia? Not saying that is possible or likely, but just a fun idea for a novel, movie, or scifi series. They could be us. No need for far distant aliens or astronomical odds, distances, or timing, just some civilization ending ice ages, wars, or other cataclysms, and technological advancements maybe a hundred or more years beyond our current capabilities.
I'm starting to doubt the claims of UFOs, I found the last congressional hearing disappointing to say the least. It is captivating, hope there's definitely something that prove there is life in other planets. But not holding my hopes that we are being visited. I will keep watch if this goes somewhere fruitful.
That’s a pretty low bar.... For the entire universe. Plus, if we’re accounting for the Fermi Paradox. It’s likely if any other intelligent being existed they are either way too far or died out long ago.
If we define intelligence as galaxy level space travel, there are no known intelligent species. Reversing this logic, there may be more intelligent species who for whichever reasons haven't become massive space farers.
This is assuming we understand everything in the universe. I do not know what to think about all this UAP stuff but hopefully we find out what is going on.
Every video you make is so well made. All of the research and effort that you put into them is clear and I enjoy every second. Also as an aspiring journalist it’s great to see an independent journalist reaching this many people this quickly.
I have been waiting for your take on this, you’re one of the only people I trust on this sort of thing (especially as I’m too lazy to keep up with everything and analyse it myself 😂)
Imagine there's smoke in your house, so you sit down and run the numbers on what the chances are your house is on fire at any given moment. That's what this video is doing - it's not an assessment of any of the evidence that's being presented
Making projections about an intelligent life intentions is like commenting the moves of pro chess players after having read the Wikipedia's chess article.
There are a lot of things that can be reasonably speculated on. Eg. They would be exposed to the same laws of physics, chemistry and evolution. With the later, the selection pressures may be different but the rules of the game will be the same.
@somethinglikethat2176 A computer is also based on the law of physics, yet trying to understand what computation it is doing based on its circuitry is a very difficult task. Add the possibility that a superintelligence would likely use quantum properties such as non-locality and interferences, which would imply that there is no chance to understand them without having mastered quantum computers ourselves.
If there is intelligent life outside of Earth then it could be super far ahead of us technologically that we can not even begin to imagine imagine showing a caveman a 3D printer or trying to explain AI they could never be able to imagine that
I once heard an analogy that compared it to us trying to communicate to an ant colony. We know the ants are there, but they are so insignificant to us that we dont even bother.
Perhaps their is intelligent life. Maybe they are superior or even far far superior. Doesn’t mean they would travel at all. Perhaps they are content where they are. Maybe they are not as intelligent as us. Maybe grazers and nothing more. Maybe they are about as intelligent as we are. We like to think we’re not alone but maybe we are alone. It’s all probability.
But what if the aliens were silicon based ,not carbon . Think of these aliens as computer AI type. Humans view distance and speed in the construct in time. The time it takes to travel from point x to y. Our limitations are based on our lifespan. If we traveled at 10 % of the speed of light the closest star would take 43 years,an entire adult lifespan. But what if our lifespan was in the thousands of years. A 43 year voyage with a 43,000 year lifespan is 1/1000 . Aliens could easily transverse space. I'm just hoping these aliens are explorers or lost. The reality that they are the highway engineers that are planning an off ramp thru our planet would be a sad ending. Thanks for the fish!
If there is something out there with the capabilities to do what the tick tack can do, if we believe commander David Fravor as I do and we are broadcasting our location out into space why wouldn't they come check it out? He testified before congress that what he saw was not bound by the laws of physics as we understand them.
There is something people also tend to forget: the intelligence barrier. Sure, life can exist, but the vast majority of life that does and did exist(that we know of) cannot bring itself to a civilization level. In fact, for the vast majority of evolutionary history, high intelligence was not that useful when compared to the immense energy investment cost that it required; and therefore you didn’t see it that often in nature. Life on this earth is 3.7 billion years old(multicellular life being only 700 million years). The last common ancestor between humans and the great apes was only around 7 million ago. 3.7 billion years of different species, and nothing with the level of civilizational complexity has ever even come close to us.
Thats great video with a lot of good points about how we understand life and how we think life might be there. I would add something else. In Amazon rainforest, there are uncontacted Indians who have no contact with the outside world. If I good understand, there are particular laws which protect them before us. We know they exist but we don't go there. They don't know about the technological development of the Western world (the same as we do not know anything about any life in our galaxy and universe, if exists), a part of seeing flying planes from distances (the same as some of us see sometimes what we describe as UFO or UAP?). But we don't know what they think about them (tribes about planes) and how they perceive them. Taking this as an analogy, aliens might be visiting our planet but might not want contact with us. Why would they if we have nothing valuable for them to offer? We don't go to Indians to take their resources like fruits and meat because we can grove them by ourselves on a much larger scale. Of course, there are historical implications (crusade) and industrial implications (cutting rain forests) but my point is if they exist and taking your and my points of view for consideration, we have absolutely no way to find out what might be their intentions before they become absolutely clear. I'm not saying they visiting us. There is nothing clearly and publicly proven (yet?). The universe is so unimaginable vast. We think we know a lot.. and maybe we do. But do we?
All of the core material I already knew, but the presentation is unlike anything I have ever seen or heard. I believe anyone can learn anything, but to truly understand, to be an expert you must be able to teach others. Only the best can teach anyone. Thank you Ryan for making us a little bit smarter.
Then you never 'got' the content. Ancient Aliens theory suggests they already 'found' earth and had a genetic intervention. Mesopotamian and others myth has humans enhanced to mine resouces; a slave race.
@@alec3205Have you seen Mick West's videos? The footage they reference in the hearings has all been debunked. Everything else is literally just hearsay.
Another consideration. Why would the aliens hide from us? It would be like humans hiding from the tree frogs. The aliens with the ability of interstellar travel would have no interest in a bunch of apes who wear clothes and who drive around in primitive metal boxes. They'd do whatever it is that they came here to do, and not give us a second thought. Except maybe swat us away if we became too much of a pest.
Well, sometimes a biologist will need to hide themselves from an animal they're studying to observe its natural behaviors. If we *are* in a 1 in 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 situation where super advanced alien scientists are observing us, we would probably never notice it. (Which also means they would probably not leave a bunch of their junk around for us to find.) To me, the most likely way we would have semi-contact with an alien civilzation is with some sort of ancient, dilapidated drone sent by a long-dead species. Something like, say, Oumuamua. (Even that is a super stretch.)
Life, so far, appears quite rare in the universe if an advanced species found us, I believe it would be high on their list to at least send probes observe us more closely -- notwithstanding issues of covering such vast distances.
In this scenario, they’re not worried we can hurt them. They’re worried that we’re bait in a trap constructed by a more technologically advanced species.
We have to remember that the term unidentified flying object does not refer to alien, just because that flying thing doesn’t have a designation and look like a shape we expect to see doesn’t mean it’s from another planet
Also it might not even be an object. Thus the term "uap" (unidentified aerial phenomenon) has replaced "UFO" in investigative circles to account for complex mirages.
@hoej Unless you're talking about the handful that were picked up on multiple radars and thermal targeting systems while also being seen visually. A mirage doesn't cause that, an object does.
@mrdlewis22 Well certainly, and my perspective on that we only have enough to maybe narrow down the list of reasonable hypotheses and improve the investigative direction but we currently don't have enough to come to a conclusion. People are wanting to skip the uncertainty phase and jump to a conclusion but we just don't have enough for that. We can't say it's aliens or off-world drones or something but we certainly should take the possibility seriously while understanding that it could easily be something a rival government has developed, or something we have developed and have kept compartmentalized away from the public and even most military personnel (just having a top-secret clearance doesn't get you access to anything labeled "top-secret," there's a lot more to gaining access and we keep things even from ourselves all the time). I'm comfortable taking several possibilities seriously and then leaving it inconclusive more info comes in to where we can confirm a hypothesis.
Huge fan and love your work evaluating various forms of DIP or just conflict in general using OSINT. Much of the logic in this video is well reasoned but as this is not your field I fear that you may have fallen into the trap of false assumptions in some of your reasoning. One example is your assumption that a UFO or UAP is indicative of a life form visiting from some faraway galaxy. Jacques Vallee one of the most well-respected researchers in the field (he is literally the guy that Spielberg made the model for the French scientist in Close Encounters movie) has put forth his theory that there is a much higher probability that UFO/UAP represents some contact with entities from a different dimension or timeline. It is widely accepted today amongst the scientific community that string theory does not work with less than 10 dimensions and M theory requires AT LEAST 11 (though some would argue more). Discounting the possibility of interdimensional travel without addressing it may be attractive as it's impossible for us to attempt to construct a framework to evaluate but it still opens you up to a massive tower of assumptions built on a foundation that may or may not exist. Similarly, the theory of UFO/UAP/Gray aliens, etc. representing some form of future-developed entities that are traveling in time rather than space is impossible to calculate and yet should not be dismissed without note. You start your video saying that you evaluated for foreign fuckery in an attempt to destabilize America and could not find it. Granting the assumptions that: 1. At least SOME of the objects observed fail all current attempts at classification. 2. At least SOME of the people who have given sworn testimony before Congress and within the military to the proper channels were telling the truth (otherwise they should have faced charges). Then I would posit that it makes far more sense to follow those threads of logic rather than calculate through Drake and Fermi and assume a disspositive. My gut call is that the greatest probability by far is that a secret branch of technological innovation has been going on for decades and that we may have craft and more importantly tech that can spoof sensors/eyeballs that create lots of incidents that we choose not to explain to our populace as do other large global powers but I do not discount the possibility that there is some explanation for all this that points to outside involvement. Hell, for that matter if the proponents of simulation theory are correct it could be a glitch in the code or the intelligence who runs the code screwing with us. My only point here is that all evaluations are built on a set of assumptions and that this particular subject may be slightly outside of your field requiring further thought. Love your stuff, keep creating thoughtful content.
Really good video, and a good take on the topic. There is one thing that I don't find usually addressed - whenever a alleged observation of an alien craft occurs, it is practically always a small craft, and if crew is seen, it is just a few individuals. We have not made an observation of any larger craft to date (and by larger, I mean REALLY large; I will get to the reasons why). I wouldn't expect such a craft in the atmosphere (that's where the smaller craft would go), but I would expect one closeby, if at least some of the small craft observations are genuine. The reason is simple: Given the insane distances, no "friendly port" on Earth and as far as we can tell, nowhere in the inner Solar System (could be hidden further away, but I somewhat doubt that either; we would already have some "wtf" observations of something seriously unnatural "over there"), therefore a smaller craft would not do, especially if crewed. It would be as if Queen Isabella sent Columbus to the Indies in just a row boat. That would apply even if FTL is available - while the dangers of travel would largely be eliminated, the dangers of the destination would still be there. And since there were allegedly observed crashes, those dangers are not apparently fully addressed. On top of that, as stated in the video, our technological civilsation is observable only for about, give or take, hundred years directly; we can stretch that if we go with polution from the industrial revolution onward (although even that is a major stretch; until, say, WW1-WW2, a small asteroid impact would leave similar effects to the planet's atmosphere, so really, not a good reason for sending a crewed craft to investigate). That means that unless said civilisation is either spanning a very large portion of the Milky Way, or is very close, they wouldn't be here because of "us" (and if they were any of those two, we would most likely notice them by now too). Which brings us back to the forest frog analogy - I just find it very unlikely that anyone would send a row boat over the Atlantic to observe them. Now, it is possible that a larger craft is in the outer solar system and it is sending crewed craft our way to perform observations, for whichever reason - and we only didn't observe it, because it possesses cloaking technology. I also find that a bit hard to believe, because even if the mother craft would be hidden from us, the smaller craft apparently isn't - as far as I am aware, there were no attempts reported of the alleged alien craft cloaking (in fact, given how common UAP supposedly are, they don't seem to bother with cloaking; in fact, they don't seem to bother staying out of sight, they just preffer staying out of focus), but also, I don't recall any story of an attempted retrieval of their crashed craft (something one really would want to do if they went to the lenghts of hiding themselves from our sight with cloaking a large interstellar-flight-capable spacecraft), overall, it just doesn't come together well. Finally, let's say they are indeed not here for us, and came from a large distance to make some in-site observations. I mean, we do that too with large scientific expeditions, just see Antarctica. That runs into another hurdle - we would have to be INCREDIBLY contemporary to one another as civilisations. The timescales of the Universe are immensly large. Compare that to the technological explosion as stated in the video. If they weren't our contemporaries, they would either be here already, and would have been so for a very, very long time, or they wouldn't be "at all". While the likelihood of them being from relatively the same time period as us (we are talking hundreds of thousands of years to a few millions, if I am to be generous, compared to the 13 billion year age of the Milky Way) is not zero, it is incredibly small. And if they indeed were from the same time period as us, that would strongly imply that there would be others popping up all the time - there would have to be at least a few much older "empires" that would eventually come our way anyway. And for that, see above. Overall, even though I strongly believe there is life elsewhere in the Universe, and probably also in the galaxy, with all likelyhood, "they" are not here. It just doesn't add up. And finally - to quote Carl Sagan: "Extraordinary claims require extrordinary evidence." So far, everyone making claims about aliens have failed to produce sufficient evidence.
The larger the craft, or the larger the number of craft, the more likely the hoax will be exposed. UFOs are a strategic deception to confuse the potential adversaries of the United States, by convincing them that America might have access to alien technology.
@@driver3899 Out of focus undefined imagery and eyewitness testimony of phenomenon that hasn´t been seen before and lasts a few seconds. Yea, I would call it insufficient.
I feel one thing is often missing in these discussions: AI. A hyper advanced intelligent extraterrestrial race can invent AI that not only solves every scientific problem imaginable, but could potentially also be sent out on space missions, exploring new planets and galaxies, setting up colonies that can later be inhabited, or making contact with other life forms. A human lifespan is NOTHING compared to a hyper advanced "ai race" that can explore space, exploit planet resources, repair or build new copies of itself, and find new sources of power.
Also.. They can use AI to design entire spacecraft in a very small amount of time. If they have actual nano tech they can literally grow these vessels. Think about that.
I don’t think your example of AI not being discussed is for a very good reason. We are discussing the possibilities of extra terrestrial life in what ever form that takes, it is a whole level on its own to then discuss whether they use something which may be very much a human invention: AI. It’s a bit like all those Shorts on YT where we see a Racoon embarrassed for kissing a cat or whatever, using human only phenomena to explain non human behaviours. We cannot assume AI is a thing anywhere else.
Ikr. Especially if you give them blond hair, pretty eyelashes and fragile little bodies. But seriously, good point, the old saying applies regarding a more advanced species tech appearing as magic even to all our calculations.
Carbon is the "most likely" thing that would form life, not the "only". Silicon based life forms could form as well (not as likely) and have incredibly different tolerances than we would. This would depending either increase or decrese the "Goldy Locks" zone for habital planets from stars. Meaning we may dismiss entire solar systems because we dont understand what forms of life would take.
Very good analysis! One thing is there might be facts we’re missing which could change those equations drastically. You can’t base anything off of vague unknowns, but it’s worth considering. There’s still alot of physics we’re not quite sure about.
@@rodrigofaria4498This is always my answer when asked what I think. Yes as far as we can tell, life requires the basics that Ryan mentioned, but we cannot see the whole universe, nor is what we are seeing current. I think preppie forget that if something is X number of light years away, what we observe (assuming we aren’t missing some parts of physics), is X years ago, or more. Time is a function of distance here, and visa versa, at least for us. At the end of the day, my answer is we simply don’t know what we don’t know, and I know less than that. However, based on the size of the universe and the odds, I suspect life exists in some form, whether we recognize it as life or not, and whether “it has happened yet” (based on the speed that information travels to us, and the distance it is from us) or not. But for now, I’ll keep living my own life, since there’s not much I can do either way.
The idea that ufos flying here from other galaxies and then crashing or us seeing them makes as much sense as a ant noticing a jet flying at 30000 feet.
I'd like to put a counter argument for your cost/benefit point. Yes for us, space travel is insanely expensive and a monumental task right now, but we don't know if it's the same case for any alien species. Once again if we take examples from ourselves, shipping goods from britain to india was a monumental task at the time. It took almost a year to ship, you needed lots of crew and maintenance, it had the risk of sinking and sacking. But now, it's the cheapest way of transportation and with a few more bucks you can ship it via airplane. Trying to explain an alien species' behaviour with rules set by human beings just falls apart by itself because, well, we ourselves set those rules in the first place. We cannot understand how alien species think or prioritize.
Ryan McBeth hears about aliens, sighs, rolls up his sleeve and gets cracking on a 5 minute PhD in Astronomy and Astrophysics, and ends up producing a video with as much quality of content, and coherent explanation of concepts as could be seen in Kurzgesagt's videos. What an outstanding effort to make this video, keep up the great work Dr. McBeth!
So he is an astro physicist? Interesting tho. I do not think we have been visited. Why would super intelligent life travel billions of light years to visit this loser world, and all of the craft cited are so vague and varied. The congressional hearings were just dumb.
Ryan, your thought process is quite logical, but recent US airforce encounter with UFO still needs to be explained kinetically. Without logical explanation of the recorded object your logical discussion is wrong explanation to the UFO our highly trained pilots!
I watched a guy with a metal detector walk around the Roswell crash site for hours and eventually he found a twisted piece of metal. It was tested by UNM metallurgists and came back as 1930s aircraft aluminum
legend has it the army went back to crash sites and spread trash around to cover anything they missed. read american cosmic. very good read and answers a ton of questions. also, the assumption that pieces of a craft may be detectable is an assumption.
@@ernie8419 I can say very confidently that never occurred. A huge majority of the pieces he has found over the years are one type of thin sheeting, very tiny and shredded from some type of impact. He also has a small number of boot eyelets and other metal bits from the soldiers on cleanup duty. There was clearly an effort made to remove everything, and only the smallest and most dispersed pieces remain.
@@ernie8419 The assumption that there were aliens and alien ships is also an assumption. No credible evidence for any alien visitation has been found.
@@ernie8419 This guy talking about 'legends' and wife tales when documents have been released what exactly crashed there. Just boggles the mind how poeple keep sweeping facts and hard evidence under the rug to keep their movie fantasies alive.
I know I’m late to the discussion, but there’s only one reason to travel to earth, “it’s the surf”!!! Perfect M-class sun, 2/3rd’s -1/3rd water/rocky planet, in the habitable zone, and a prefect 1/3rd single moon. Sun, wind, waves… the only reason to visit earth:-)
Excellent. I think all you missed was the possibility that aliens were already flying about space, maybe checking out rocks & stuff, then being much closer in their Mothership, sent smaller ships to check out the Earth. So, in effect they didn't need to travel all the way from home. Anyway, just a thought.😁
Good point of many theories not covered here. If aliens have been here from even before humans evolved, an automated factory arriving to our solar system, mining resources to print purpose-built vehicles, growing pilots, etc., there isn't a resource transport issue. As far as information not traveling faster than light, there really isn't much evidence for non-FTL travel. Most reports and footage show crafts not following the known "laws" of physics. Applying our already inadequate understanding of physics to the thousands of accounts, photos, and videos just doesn't seem very useful either, but I'm just a random dude without any expertise so what do I know? 😂
There isn’t much to argue against here, and I generally agree with your conclusion regarding the probability that the earth has been visited by extraterrestrial intelligent life. What you didn’t touch on is the possibility that a civilization, or the non-biological descendants of a civilization, could have launched autonomous self-replicating devices to conduct a survey of the galaxy, much in the same way we now have semiautonomous undersea drones mapping the sea floor. Such a program would not be constrained by time and space the way a biological entity would be. And as it would expand approximately exponentially as it progressed, only one civilization with sufficient sophistication would be required to set in motion a massive, galaxy spanning endeavor. This basic concept has been proposed both in the scientific and science fiction communities.
Big Fan of your channel! I read 3 Body Problem and I think the conclusion is not as logical as it seems but based on the biased and dark worldview of the author who had to live through some pretty terrible times. I have dogs. They are inferior to me. I don't kill them because one day they might evolve. In fact I adore their dumb slobbering company very much and spend way too much money on them. I don't wage war against chimps or gorillas because one day they might evolve. Or Dolphins, or Parrots. Would aliens see us as Pets? Maybe, or like children. I'm not going to kill my kid either because one day he might hate me or marry a gold digger. Where was I? Any civilization advanced enough to visit us would really have no reason to kill us off because why bother? We will NEVER be a threat. They will ALWAYS be ahead of us technologically. I find the idea that Humans will somehow catch up to be pretty anthropocentric. ( I think I just made up that word. ) Here is another one. Imagine going on a hike in the Forest. ( Okay, the Dark Forest ) It wouldn't be much fun if there were no critters. It would be very lonely. I'm the optimist here. I think any greatly advanced civilization would be exactly that. Advanced. Not like us savages. They would like to see what becomes of us. Maybe they would take pleasure in the day we finally figure out how to ask for our own bottle ( of Scotch ). Respectfully, I liked 3 Body Problem but to a Hammer - everything is a Nail. If you live, breathe, eat military you have to be careful not to see everything and everyone as a threat. FYI. 8 year of Navy speaking. Family are all Navy. Okay... one Coast Guard. Coast Guard counts man! Cheers
Your numbers are low. (sizes of the Galaxy, a couple others.) Your analysis of this is spot on. The Analogies hurt my brain though. Point made. They're full of shit until they produce the evidence for the Public and NON-Govt. funded or affiliated Scientists to analyze.
Consider also the possibility of interdimensional visitors. This is also mentioned in the Remembrance of Earth's Past book series by Cixin Liu (Three-body-problem books you mentioned). He also talked about the Farmer and the Shooter hypthesis.
The problem with the interdimensional/universal hypothesis is we aren't even sure other universes to travel from exist for certain, add on to that that you are making earths needle in a galaxy sized haystack problem even worse. now you've got EVEN MORE empty space to find us in. unless you're referring to say a 4th or 5th dimensional entity interactic which...again, not impossible, but we aren't even sure those actually exist, and there's still the "space is big" problem.
Very Earth-centric analysis. Aliens might think differently and have different motivations or ideas about cost or effort. Just because we often wiped out less technologically advanced people in our history doesn't mean an alien species necessarily would. We're still just barely taking our first baby steps out of this sphere. Assuming we have it all figured out and can make declarations about where life can be and their motivations is the epitome of human hubris.
If these advanced beings can do all this, how do they get here & get seen by pilots? They wouldn’t have cloaking devices for their craft? Regardless of anything, we’re still looking at millions or billions of light years to get here. Any civilization that can do that is not gonna be seen, or have a craft that ‘breaks down’ after all that..
@@goldenageofdinosaurs7192 What if they are interdimensional beings? They don't need to travel billions of light years to get here if they occupy the same space in a different dimension. Also, we are highly advanced in technology compared to our ancestors - and yet we still deal with 'break downs' as well.
@@goldenageofdinosaurs7192 The closest solar system to ours is only 4.5 light years away. Making assumptions about alien technology capabilities, not knowing at all how they work, is also kind'a silly. Assuming they have cloaking devices, assuming there's no way to cover vast distances faster than we currently think, or assuming they're invulnerable are all silly.
Thanks for another entertaining and down to earth explanation of a "sciency" concept that appears to be difficult for many to grasp. Also you have come to the same conclusion as me which means you must be very wise and competent. Wait a minute I am not so competent...
I pretty much agree with the whole analyzes in this video. Though, i only hoped that he went a bit deeper in the Nimitz incident (one of the three guys during the testimony was a Fighter pilot at the USS Nimitz). The one specific reason why i gained interest in this sighting is because objects were also on radar on board of the Nimitz. Backing up some important claims that the pilot explained. The other two guys are pretty much the ''trust me bro'' type of people to me, but i can't look inside of their heads of course. When it comes to that Nimitz incident let me not be the guy that immediately says ''its aliens!''. But if even the pentagon can't figure out what it was then I'm still left with one certain question. Which is.., can we theoretically build aircraft that is able accelerate from 0 to mag 1 in a fraction of a second? It will of course kill any person inside, but therefore think of a drone. Is this completely physically impossible? Or can we do it when we have reached higher levels of advanced technology? If the answer is no, then cased closed. If the answer is yes, then we could have been beaten to it. That of course does not confirm anything of the sightings. The famous saying by Carl Segan ''Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence'' is still very important when it comes to these subjects. But i just love to think about the possibilities and be open minded about it. So please don't ridicule my questions, I'm just curious and think that it's just fun to speculate about these type of mysterious subjects.
I love the breakdown on physical requirements that likely have to be met! Still feel like there's a lot more wiggle room when it comes to value sets and psychology though. We view things through a certain range of lenses primarily because of our environment. Another species that developed in a different environment may have an ingrained range of lenses that differs accordingly. FE What does a species that develops in an environment with less or non-existent intelligent predation look like? Would they necessarily view us as a threat to be eliminated, or as a potential neighbor to engage in cultural exchange with? It seems like a lonely universe out there, and the resource crunch doesn't really factor until the theorized late stages of the universe unless intelligent spacefaring life is far more prevalent than it appears to be. Still overall agree it's a very low likelihood we've been visited. The current noise seems far more useful as a smokescreen for dark projects that, as some others put it, we won't find out about for another 50 years.
AWESOME ANALYSIS!!!! Great points, can't imagine the work you put into this and great work being concise, im sure you could make an entire series of videos
The data, PowerPoints and Google Earth File along with a longer explanation is available here:
ryanmcbeth.substack.com/p/oops
Based on the analysis, I believe that there is almost no chance (a 0-5% chance) that intelligent life has visited Earth.
1. There seems to be a scarcity of life.
2. Earth may be difficult to detect.
3. The motivation of an alien to travel to Earth may be limited to defense - which means that the only reason we are alive as a species is that we havn't been visted.
Special thanks to:
Dr. Oisín Creaner, Assistant Professor in Physical Sciences at Dublin City University
Professor Marco Thiel, PhD, University of Aberdeen (UK)
Andy Silber, PhD
PhD Student Robin Mentel, University College Dublin
PhD Student Ethan from Northumbria University.
PhD Student Roland Timmerman from Leiden Observatory
Keane Halls from Bangor University
Scott Madison, a “Smarty-Pants” from New Mexico Tech
Ryan Frazee, Cosmologist, University of Kansas
And Brian Drourr, professional astrophotographer
Any mistakes I have made are solely my own.
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that's much better, thanks. the first video was a nightmare 🤣🤣🤣
edit: also en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chirality_(chemistry) the topic of chirality and the "handedness" of the molecules making up life and food sources, is fascinating too
Our galaxy is mind boggling large. Its about 100,000 light-years across with around 400 billion stars each with its own collection of planets and there are art last 200 billion and perhaps as many as 2 trillion galaxies in the known universe.
The sheer scale means that it's a virtual certainty that not only does life exist, it must be fairly common and Intelligent life can't be too uncommon in this vastness.
However, the distances involved are even more astonishing. The nearest star is over 4 light years away and the next nearest galaxy is is 2.5 million light years.
The fastest man made object is the Parker space probe which is traveling at 350,000 miles per hour or 563,270.4 kilometers per hour. At these speeds it would take over 8,000 years to travel to the closest star, proxima centauri, which is 4.37 light years from earth.
Even if we were to travel at a significant percentage of the speed of light, it would still take decades to travel just to the next star let alone anywhere else in the galaxy.
Not only are the distances so vast, but the estimated age of the universe, at 14 billion years, is also mind numbing. We've existed for only the tiniest fraction of that time and only been space going for the last few decades.
So consider this, for us to meet intelligent aliens they have to not only exist in relative close proximity to us but they also have to exist at a time that overlaps with our existence and have reached technological advancement enough to get here.
So, while there is almost certainly other intelligent life in the universe, even if it were reasonably common, the odds of us overlapping in both time and space with an alien civilization capable of visiting is vanishingly small.
@@lenger1234 A lot of current thinking is that life as we know it is a lot more rare than those statistics you're thinking of would lead you to believe. Just the folding of chromosomes in a particular manner to allow intelligence is extremely unlikely - even in a universe of planets. Our planet/sun combo is also way more rare than we thought even 20 years ago. Add to that the theory Ryan mentions, and it's entirely possible that life - especially intelligent life - may be ultra rare.
@@brentm9848 but there's also concepts such as the anthropic principle which, depending on if you're in the weak or strong camp, indicate these studies about life being rare are likely flawed. It should be noted that an often-understated answer to the Fermi Paradox is that sapient life is perfectly abundant across the universe and we just lack sufficient understanding to identify their signatures.
I like Bill Waterson's take in Calvin and Hobbes -- "Sometimes I think the surest sign that intelligent life exists elsewhere in the universe is that none of it has tried to contact us."
😂👍agree 100%
how could a species incapable of society without monopolization of violence comprehend interstellar friendship? if I was an alien race capable of watching us evolve and seeing what we've done I wouldn't contact until we've figured our shit out either. the fact that scientific exploration and discovery was dismissed as clout chasing in this argument assumes an extra terrestrial society has the same perspective on recourses as we do. if their technology has advanced beyond consumption, and could perhaps be truly renewable, a concept easily conceivable in our current reality, fusion exists, than perhaps we really do just need to put the gun down.
😂👍🏻
An alternative is Dark Forest Theory 🫥
👍
“Space is big. You just won't believe how vastly, hugely, mind-bogglingly big it is. I mean, you may think it's a long way down the road to the chemist's, but that's just peanuts to space.”
― Douglas Adams, The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy
well done
time too 😉
This. I try to tell people that it’s just not feasible that this would happen. Unless aliens live to be like 15 million years old or something & a 2 million year, one way trip isn’t a big deal.
@@beepboop204 Time. That's a good one. Why is it that when you have 5 minutes left in your work day and you look at the clock again only one minute has passed? And when your alarm clock rings and you roll over to get 5 more minutes of rest you end up 20 minutes behind schedule?
@@goldenageofdinosaurs7192 What if they travel interdimensional or fold space? If they use gravity drive, they can also alter time. If this is happening, we need to think outside the box to understand this phenomenon.
Mad respect for Ryan going way out of his normal area of interest and doing a bang-up job of analyzing the likelihood of aliens, a subject that I spend way too many hours watching vids about and thinking about.
He is still a human sizing the universe to its own self .,size is a very limiting factor for a human .The person creating a universe is a of different size or not limited by size ,size is our jail .
Alien life is already visiting our planet as the UFO hearing in Congress has proven on Wednesday. We are not alone - just on the 2004 Tic Tac UFO encounter alone.
@@spookyninja4098the hearing was just hearsay. There wasn't any evidence provided.
You've watched Issac Author's Fermi Paradox videos I presume ;)
You aren't the only one. I am currently working on a book about it, and the information you need to know is staggering.
Only Ryan could equate the probability of life in the universe to the probability that a McDonalds ice cream machine is broken. Cheers, Ryan.
It's not just Mickey D's ice cream machine. My local Burger Royalty finger food emporium claims its machine is under maintenance so often, I keep wondering if it can qualify for replacement under the State's Lemon Law. This cuts down on the number of options if and when an alien should arrive and say "Take me to your (functioning) ice cream machine."
The chances of other heavier elements being present in a Star system while carbon isn’t kinda raises some questions as to why that would be. Especially since we have detected the elements we consider necessary for life in interstellar clouds, along with organic molecules. The building blocks are all over the place. It’s really just a question of how common abiogenesis is, or how likely is some past civilization to be willing and able to seed life throughout the cosmos.
Ryan, your video is the most entertaining and imaginative presentation of this issue/question I've ever seen. Very, very, very clever. Even outstanding. And I agree with your conclusion. Probably because we are both former military. Military people assess and think in terms of threat and mission survivability.
However...
Some observations: is it REALLY a proper assumption that creatures with strong "religious" beliefs would not be highly motivated to evangelize? To reveal their truth. Or to destroy those who do not believe? If that religion, like Christianity or Islam believed in a universal objective metaphysics, Creator, moral code...why would that be like talking to a tree frog? As an intelligence guy...you need to reassess your own assumptions. I don't think you appreciate the POWER of religious belief. I am not saying aliens cannot be vastly more intelligent, but that hardly makes humans mere tree frogs. Humans are sentient and capable of pretty cool things. In other words, Ryan, do not dismiss "religion" as none scientific gobbledygook. Religion, the acknowledgement that creatures are not the Creator is the gigantic looming issue and question of existence. There is no larger question or compelling appetite to understand. Remember that religion is the undergirding assumption about reality itself including science. That belief is everything. You may dismiss it because you "believe" in "reason" and science. But science and reason have limits. And pushing limits is the very nature of exploration and power projection. To dismiss this fact of existence is to proceed at your peril. I don't think you appreciate the magnitude of religion in the foundation of consciousness itself: civilization, science, thought, art, law, quest, war. Whether human or otherwise. Just a caveat... A very important one.
A planetary Mc Donalds, with the ice cream machine broken due to stubbornly poor design, also on fire and infested by an intelligent parasite determined to make itself extinct.
@@johnsnyder3443I would disagree with your critique. As Ryan points out, the only reasonable way for life on Earth to have been detected is through the presence of Oxygen, which on Earth is produced exclusively by non-sentient life. More prominent traces of CO2, Sulphur, or H2O can be written off as evidence of volcanic activity. It wouldn't be until detection of enriched Uranium or Plutonium that sentient life becomes likely. That assumes they even notice the Oxygen or Uranium through the thick Nitrogen atmosphere and magnetic field. Realistically, I think Ryan is right to say that it's too unlikely.
In 125 years everyone is going to be hyped getting a Morse code message back saying "new phone, who dis?"
Funny
@@RyanMcBethProgramming well ho lee shit, in all my time of making stupid comments on TH-cam, never have I gotten a response from the creator 😂
@@isaacbrown4506Its an awesome thing. I got slammed by Mike from Red Letter Media years ago.
Got help us when they pick up the radio and television signals from the 1930s and start speaking German very enthusiastically saying they are on their way soon...
That would be both cool and funny. But why would they know morse code and why would they know and use our alphabet and language? It would seem that they KNOW "who dis" if they're using our language and alphabet. Unless, of course, ALL alien life forms really do speak English...
"I think it is much more likely that the reports of flying saucers are the result of the known irrational characteristics of terrestrial intelligence, rather than the unknown, rational efforts of extraterrestrial intelligence."
-- Richard Feynman
Fuckin' oath, mate!!
- Albert Einstein.
“Two possibilities exist: either we are alone in the universe or we are not. Both are equally terrifying.”
-- Arthur C Clarke
I don't agree with this statement. To me being alone in the universe is unsettling because it's up to humanity to keep life going. Not being alone opens up new possibilities.
@@dt6653And possibly new threats, depending on whether c can be exceeded.
There is almost certainly life out there. Problem is, the speed of light rule is a hard and fast barrier to travel between stars, and given the distances involved, it is unlikely that we will ever be visited by aliens, or vice versa.
I would remind of Clarke’s Three Laws ( Arthur C.Clarke) When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong.
The only way of discovering the limits of the possible is to venture a little way past them into the impossible.
Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.
@@johnjones_1501The universe is also really really old. The sun might be a fourth generation star -- which means the original star went supernova and turned into dust, slowly coalesced into another star, which also went supernova etc for up to three complete cycles before our sun was formed.
Your analogies are really well done. This is really thorough and accessible. You're turning into a science TH-camr as well as an investigative journalist.
I second this. His analogies are top notch.
He is great, but this is not really journalism. This is an expert in a field applying his skills and showing us. I studied journalism for 3 years and this isn't really what we learn (although some journalists are of course experts)
No. TH-camrs should not be allowed to see simp comments like this. He's turning into a guy who thinks he's an expert in everything because he's an expert in one thing. This video could be about any topic and the way he's approaching the topic is bad in so, so many ways. But he'll never figure it out because of the standard youtube piles of praise commenters like this.
He's following scientific process that's why
Hypothesis, analysis & evidence
What a great exercise teaching the value of logic and factual thinking as opposed to emotionally based "thinking". Great work!
Good analysis of this one scenario. I’m suprised there was no caveat about that.
There are others that have nothing to do with traveling vast distances.. such as the person he used in his graphic. Grusch and his best guess based on what he saw in the documents.
What am I supposed to think with the buzz word “misinformation” in the title, and the a very narrow approach to this topic.
Very lacking….
Anyway, if time is fundamental to the theory, you’re never ever going to there. Similar to his distance from KS to Biloxi, if he can’t phrase this concept then he is leaving a lot off the table.
Ask a physicist about time lol.
It is a lot cheaper to go higher than 8 kilometres sitting in a chair than climbing Mount Everest.
Alien life is already visiting our planet as the UFO hearing in Congress has proven on Wednesday. We are not alone - just on the 2004 Tic Tac UFO encounter alone...
It's a great example of how humans can't get away from emotional thinking. We assume others think like us. I personally would think curiosity as a reason would be nearly 100% whereas defence say 10% because I don't work in defence so don't have a bias to think that way. It's impossible for us to know what another alien will value
@@spookyninja4098what is your definition of evidence, what types of evidence are you using to come to that conclusion?
I saw an interview with an astronomist who made the observation that if space were the size of the Pacific Ocean, we've looked at an area the size of a glass of water for life. If an advanced civilization had the chance to explore 10000x more space than us, they've looked through a dozen barrels of water. Out of the Pacific Ocean.
And as long as we have to assume that the speed of light is a definite barrier, it's hardly possible to get much beyond that.
Even if there are advanced species observing earth, they may merely see it as it was millions of years ago.
If we've looked at an area of space equal to a glass of water, how could anyone make a guess space is the size of the Pacific Ocean?
@@senatorjosephmccarthy2720 Two things, first, OP specified that we've searched the "glass of water" for life, not that that glass is all we've looked at.
Second, you're right, there's a reason that when people talk about how many galaxies, or how big space is, they qualify it by saying "in the observable universe" because there is a finite distance that we can observe. That distance is mind bogglingly big, but to bring it back to the ocean analogy, we haven't yet seen the whole ocean, we're just comparing the area we've looked for life to the area we know exists, we don't know how big the ocean actually is.
@senatorjosephmccarthy2720 You can measure the edges of the Pacific Ocean without checking all the contents.
@@seanabbott798the scientists spoke prematurely since he doesn’t know the size of the universe. Just as Ryan and all of the naysayers, your thought process is quite logical, but recent US airforce encounter with UFO still needs to be explained kinetically. Without logical explanation of the recorded object your logical discussion is wrong explanation of the UFO sighting and to our highly trained pilots.
Low probability doesn’t mean 0. I don’t kill new primitive life I find in nature, and our current human logic doesn’t encompass all logics in another 100 years. I didn’t even got into quantum theory and multiverse.
The analogy for distances and amounts using the US soil, the TSA, sand and McDonalds is absolutely brilliant! Thank you for uploading this work
Boston, has a scale model of the Solar System that spreads out as far as the town of Auberndale. Great stuff.
@@JohnWilliamNowakbut primitive AI in 3 years time can search every McDonalds for a specific ice cream flavor under 5 seconds.
Ryan and all of the naysayers, your thought process is quite logical, but recent US airforce encounter with UFO still needs to be explained kinetically. Without logical explanation of the recorded object your logical discussion is wrong explanation of the UFO our highly trained pilots saw.
Low probability doesn’t mean 0. I don’t kill new primitive life I find in nature, and our current human logic doesn’t encompass all logics in another 100 years. I didn’t even got into quantum theory and multiverse.
You shouldn't need an analogy to figure out how far things are. Facepalm!
@@coolorphansI don't need you telling me what I do or don't need
As a astrophysics and Fermi paradox enthusiast who could talk about that topic for days without pause, my first reaction at the beginning of your video was "Oh, no, here it comes". How many errors would I find, despite knowing how well informed you always explain many other topics? Well - none, dude! Awesome work! Special props for the phosphorus topic, this is NOT well known, even in the "Fermi-Paradox"-sphere! You did your homework, sir! Half way through I was already expecting, that you will give special thanks to a bunch of astrophysicists. You don't disappoint!
What about the possibility of UAPs being interdemensional? That point seems to have been completely ignored.
I'm not saying this to be a troll but because I really am curious and feel like this should have at least been addressed before almost totally dismissing the idea of UAPs being here.
@@Britt-r3r What if they travel by worm hole? What if they probe our anuses?
You can pose an infinite what if scenarios, it doesn't make this so called testimony more credible.
@@Britt-r3r What do you mean by "interdimensional"? Once you realize that you can't actually define this in terms of known physics, why not replace the term with "magic".
@jimsackmanbusinesscoaching1344 Why not "by means not fully understood" instead of "magic"?
Yeah, I only recently heard about the phosphorus problem from Isaac Arthur.
bold to take this on, I'm glad you never shy away from issues based on controversy alone.
This guy has a knack for picking up information and understanding it well enough to create analogies for it. He could be a lawyer for sure. He isnt an astrophysicist or a chemist but he really got a lot of the right information to analyze this problem. Ive read a lot about all of this information as well and he reallt hit the nail on the head about what things are problems and what we are looking for to get the answers we need. Im impressed.
Thanks for diving into realistic SETI topics and combining into the most-tailored-for-me TH-cam channel of all time😊
thanks, i thought your ukraine stuff was good, this is better.
Haha I thought the same my youtube is 70% aliens, 29% Ukraine, 1% fishing videos lol. I hope he keeps up with the UAP/alien videos too. It's like he read my mind. He didn't account for one thing.... we don't know what we don't know yet. There's other elements and physics that we don't yet know, this fact makes pretty much anything possible. Yes the universe is huge and spread out so much, this fact doesn't mean anything, it's clear they are here. We almost all know someone who's seen one. My mom saw a ufo that took up the whole sky in 1968 over for knox. I think the zoo hypothesis is the most likely.
@@extrememiami Lol reality just waves bye bye to some people.
Parking lot of Wendy's in Biloxi Mississippi sounds like the perfect characterization of our position in the galaxy.
Thank you, that was brilliant - and brilliant in every way! I loved the science, the logical analysis, the very funny, totally accessible and absolutely appropriate analogies, and the excellent way you cited your scientific supporters at the end. You’re changing the zeitgeist ! Thanks for this, and for all your other videos. Very best wishes. (Btw, great to know that the President has your phone number… 😊)
To those interested in the topic, check out von neumann probes. We often make the assumption that organic beings would make the trip to earth in these scenarios.
Right, I mean we already sent unmanned probes out of our solar system, and have autonomous probes exploring alien planets in our own system.
What will we be able to do in a couple more decades if we were to put real effort behind it? What could we do in a few centuries?
There’s no reason for self replicating probes to not also create biological clones of beings to interact with other intelligent biological species, and those clones being considered as disposable as the automated probes themselves.
@@russellharrell2747 Which is a step away from the panspermia hypothesis.
Just to jump on to the post. Isaac Arthur's channel has tons of grat videos on the topic.
You explained life, distance, possibilities, and probability into a short video.
It completely made sense to me.
I would call this video Sagan-worthy.
Bravo to you and your many contributors. This is the most measured and lucid examination of the complexity and perils of interstellar travel I can remember
For OUR technology. Not for someone with more advanced tech.
@@SvenTvikingI love the "advanced tech" excuse given no matter how advanced you are there will always be limits to the speed of travel.
First... Love the analogy
Second... This is how discussion should work. We could change our perspective based on new information
One question that needs to be addressed which isn't with Drake's equation is: Given some percentage chance of life existing elsewhere in the galaxy, and given the vast amounts of time involved at a galactic scale, what is the chance that life has evolved elsewhere _at the same time_ as us.
That’s like saying that when you look at the stars ,we share the same time ?
@@robertwoodroffe123we may see something that is already gone.
What are the chances that it's not alien life but terrestrial life. It may not be terrestrial life from now it could be terrestrial life from the future or the past. And it sounds a lot like extra dimensional technology. Think of the tardis bigger on the outside is the tardis actually moving through space when it travels or is it simply changing the location of its portal.
You're not the first to bring up that fact. One scientist brought up a scenario that Earth receives a signal from a distant planet thousands of years ago, Earth responds & once the Earth response reaches that planet. All life on that planet is dead due to the parent star has died or some cataclysms occurred hundred of years ago on that planet that wiped out all life. All that Earth finally achieve interstellar travel, & all we find are abandoned ruins of dead civilization.
Or they detect us, & sent a scientific expedition toward Earth, takes a couple of hundred of years, & by the time they arrive on Earth. The human race is extinct due to a climate catastrophe or simply wiped ourselves out from a nuclear war.
Time actually is not such a factor here. If an intelligent species gains access to FTL technologies, there’s no denying its pretty much here to stay now. An extinction event of cosmic proportions would need to occur to wipe them out, and so life from the past is far more likely than more recent life closer to our age, as they have a boost in gaining this survivability advantage, while us terrestrials are at the mercy of nature. So really it’s more a function of their mere distance from us because of how hard detecting a civilization like us is.
Watching the video, it’s great how he goes to the computer science side and tracks the authenticity of people’s’ interest in the story. That part is legitimate. And that’s where his authority on the subject ends. In the rest of the video, I feel, he speaks from ignorance.
When it comes to the science of time and distance, he’s missing a part of the picture. He talks about physical science, but it’s a 19th century depiction of reality. There is quantum theory out there, including theories about multiple dimensions, which suggests a relationship to time, distance and space that he’s totally not taking into account. Some theories talk about folding space time, or relating in non-3D planes of dimension, as a means of what we might otherwise call “interstellar” and “intergalactic” travel. Also, the UFO (UAP) record shows evidence of devices/craft which may even be coming from our planet’s oceans, underground, and phasing in and out of thin air within our atmosphere. Are these craft from another planet? Are they from another dimension that is actually right stacked on top of / within where we are currently living in space? We don’t know. Could UAP’s be human-made devices that are being kept secret from the greater public by a black-budget government intelligence program and defense contractors? All possibilities have to be considered.
Then when he talks about finding intelligent life, he loses me. David Grusch in his testimony to Congress as well as his public interview was careful not to describe the makers of these anomalous devices/phenomena as living, because we are unsure what the evident alleged non-human intelligence is, let alone whether it is living or not. So for this video creator, there’s no need to talk about the building blocks of life, because there are so many other possibilities for the building blocks of intelligence besides life. There is a great deal about the universe we do not understand. Why does “dark matter” appear to account for 95% of the universe? Why do quantum experiments consistently show the outcome of experiments to be affected based on the thoughts of the observers? Why does it appear that two particles making up a quantum pair, huge distances apart across the universe, still can behave in predictable ways, in relationship to one another? What happens at the singularity of a black hole? And how does it work that light is both a particle AND a wave?!
We know in history that when Galileo championed Copernicus’ heliocentric model of the cosmos, a Cardinal of the Catholic Church (the then-authorities on the nature of reality) would have regarded him as foolish and to be discredited. Magic is just science that hasn’t been figured out yet. We have been living in a time that pays too little attention to the mysterious simply because it hasn’t been measured yet. Don’t let the difficult to understand be an obstacle to pursuing the truth.
time needs to be added to the alien equation; not only do aliens need to form a civilization, but they have to do it at the same time as humans. those are big odds
My initial draft covered time, and the evolution window between when life develops, and when the local star explodes. What I realized was that, since we really didn’t know how long it might take for life to develop outside of earth, it’s not something we could speculate on.
@@RyanMcBethProgramming thanks for your reply, still doing a good job, don't how to work time in the equation
Assume that at a galaxy joyride technology that they can live billions of years. So, having lived before us handles that issue quickly.
I believe we aren't the first... nor the last society to develop... there are societies that could be a million years advanced of us and likewise there are societies still bubbling in a pond somewhere figuring this living thing out...
The Human race has only had Electricity and modern science for what 120 ? Now imagine an Alien race that is 1000 to 10,000 years in advance of us and have super science to travel faster than the speed of light = We dont have to imagine because Alien life is already visiting our planet as the UFO hearing in Congress has proven on Wednesday.
I think the biggest thing about Grush's explanation that makes it fall apart for me is that he claims we have been reverse engineering alien technology in order to make our advances in military tech, but this does not at all line up with how military and broader general technological advancements have been made. Rather than being made in sudden leaps and bounds as we deciper and reverse engineer extremely advanced tech, we see technologies that were first theorized decades ago being put into the prototyping stage, and then after further decades of development finally getting put into full production. Modern advancements like advanced nano-scale computer chips and adaptive cycle engines are things that were theorized in independent academic papers 30+ years ago and are only now starting to put into practice.
if you actually watched or read the testimony you would know grusch claims the opposite, that we have been trying for 80 years and still cannot reverse engineer anything
I heard that the wire that goes back to shape with heat and the invisible material at certain angles came from alien tech. It doesnt have to be crazy wild technology, just a few tips and hints to get material science to the finish line would count as help from crashed UFOs.
To me, Grusch comes across as flippant and self-centered. Kind of creepy or something. UAPs, yes. Aliens, no.
@@BillKurn Grusch has more credentials than you buddy
@@paddington1670 100 percent false you can trace the patents and development of all these things, they are 100 percent human invention , grusch said there has been no successful reverse engineering
"use more... KINETIC methods" may be my new favorite euphemism for violence
It's also a reasonable euphemism for sex.
The critical misgiving with this logic, is that it assumes that another species shares our logic. Not a criticism of yourself, but I do think Humans are far too egotistical when it comes to the infallibility of our own logic.
A good book that kinda touches on parallel dimensions and chaotic quantum mechanics logic is through the looking glass by John Ringo.
First, logic is not just thinking or philosophical. Logic has a mathematical foundation, as originally codified by Bertrand Russell.
Any intelligence advanced enough to travel the vastness of space will understand mathematics, as it is as universal as laws of physics, chemistry and biology.
Second, there is a metric called the Kardashev Scale that quantifies the level of technical advancement of a species and civilization based on its ability to utilize energy. For example, a Type 2 civilization can completely harness the energy and resources of its host star in its solar system. This could be through mega structures akin to Dyson Spheres or Ring Worlds, for example. No matter, these types of objects would also be signatures for advanced intelligent life. Incidentally, the scale arguably can go to a Level 5 civilization, which assumes the existence of Multiverses. Imagine what god-like powers beings who can control and harness the energy of entire universes would have, and by extension what need they would have to visit earth. It would be akin to going to an ant hill in Africa to watch the intestinal bacteria in the ant guts. They could no more communicate with us - let alone have us understand them - than we could do the same with gut bacteria.
If they made it to space, their capacity for logic is self evidence.
Maybe they have found us and are studying a primitive society taking it's very first steps in to chemical powered space flight.
Ryan, you've been just an incredibly welcome breath of fresh air. Your content is so very well researched and explained without any level of bias. You always apply critical and reasonable thinking, and this is something that is sadly missing from society. Keep up the excellent work!
Damn that was one hell of a video 😍This is the link you send to those friends that just took this hearing on face value, and decided we have been visited and they crashed into McDonalds .
A-freakin-men brother
Fraver is an honest man. Grusch gives me a red flag kind of feel. But I don't know.
I tried to watch this video (or rather, the original) a few min after it was published and it wouldn't load. Glad to see it's back up! And love your content! (I'm also a bit of a nerd, and studying to be an analyst, so your content is right up my alley, and I've learned a lot!)
Yeah, I uploaded the wrong file because I was running late for a baseball game.
@RyanMcBethProgramming No worries! Hope your team won, and if ya didn't, that yall had fun and gained some valuable insight for the next matchup!
@@RyanMcBethProgramming I can see the difference in run times 😅 Not gonna lie - I was kind of excited for a 41 minute video. 28 is fine though! Love your content!
thought you had loaded a live feed by mistake shows all the hassle to make your vids ( out of sync sounds) still good
Couple of points:
- Resource allocation depends on scale: at $58k trip to Everest is a once in a life time thing for most people, but if Bezos lives another 80 years, he could fund an expedition every second and not run out of money. So if you have the resources of a dozen solar systems at your disposal, suddenly sending a ship to every mildly interesting world isn't that expensive.
-We keep statistics on everything: We keep statistics on how many mcFlurries are functioning. We track what elements are where in the galaxy. You think we wouldn't place sensor stations of various kinds out to every single world in the galaxy if we could?
- We really like spying on our neighbors: international diplomacy is built on espionage. Hell, we'll happily spy on our closest allies, just to be safe. If we think we can get away with it, we spy. Presumably, if we were aware of a primitive alien civilization on another world, we'd spy on them.
- Tech grows exponentially: and we don't know where that process stops. There may be simple solutions to all sorts of things we think are hard, radically reducing the costs.
In order to spy on someone, we would have to send something there. How long will that take to get there? Voyager 1 would take 75000 years to reach Alpha Centauri, the closest star and if I am not mistaken that is the fastest or close to the fastest craft we have ever made. So there is a time issue as well - what do you and I care if our descendants in 75000 (+ 3 years to send the answer back to Earth) find something really cool to spy on at Alpha Centauri? Are we gonna fund it?
To which I say, how do you account for time? Time to traverse the universe and return back to where they came from. With findings to report back to their own beings. Unless a one way trip is all that matters, considering they live thousands upon thousands of light years (trillions even?). Or do they call home their interactions with us. And if so, are they not limited by speed of light because otherwise their own civilizations would have died many, many times over before getting word back.
And let’s just say that they are much closer to us than we can imagine. Our own galaxy, the odds of that are beyond astronomical. With that vastness of JUST our observable universe, that would be like in this vastness, lightning hitting at the same place (within the tiniest span of measurement man can conjure) and at the exact, exact same time (after all, our species has not been around that long).
It seems incomprehensible.
@@dougerrohmerfunny. I just started writing something similar but more long-winded. Thank you.
The problem is that we just don’t know enough it could be that there is intelligent life with godlike powers like the Q collective but it could also be that we are alone in the universe so based on the data we have it is just not conceivable that aliens have already been too earth.
Edit for spelling errors.
@@dougerrohmerDo you really think Aliens with potentially millions of years on us, would be sending probes going the speed of a 1970s satellite?
"Have we been visited by aliens? Mr. Grusch certainly thinks so."
MR. GRUSCH WENT OUT OF HIS WAY NOT TO SAY 'ALIENS'!!! The distinction is important.
Ryan, you have a way of making very technical and complex subject matter and breaking it down in a way for us that aren't experts understand easily. I like to consider myself intelligent and educated, but I'm not sure I could have understood your analysis easier by any other means, and all in 30 mins. Keep up the great work. We're all watching 😀
Awful video; this government propagandist called the uap witnesses liars.
Very impressive analysis. I'll opine that our galactic neighbors more likely resemble cyanobacteria than Little Gray Men. And that Warp Drive seems to require large quantities of Unobtainium. And, it still violates causality.
Not necessary
> Based on the analysis, I believe that there is almost no chance (a 0-5% chance) that intelligent life has visited Earth.
More accurately, "based on today's understanding of science and technology, and some reasonable but unproven assumptions I've made,, there is almost no change that intelligent life has visited earth".
I have yet to see convincing evidence of such visitation, but your confidence in our current understanding seems overly optimistic.
When I follow science news, it seems as if every new tool winds up exposing problems with our best current understanding. For example, galaxies which seem to be too old, according to our models. This is not a rare thing, it's quite common. "Up til now, we've convinced ourselves that no pulsar could spin faster than X, but now we've found one, so we may need to revise our models.
My point is: what confidence would the physicists have had, based on existing understandings, before the new discovery? Basically, they can't accurately calculate one, because they don't know what they don't know, or what will be discovered next year.
Trying to calculate the percentage likelihood of an unknown life form with unknown technology having visited Earth needs to have very huge error bars - and we can't even calculate how huge. Sure it could be fun to try, but it would be unwise to give much credence to the results.
I'm not making any case for alien visitation. I'm making the case that this is a question with extremely important unknown unknowns which make such calculations very close to meaningless. Like trying to confidently predict how long it will take to invent time travel or "warp drives".
The thing that personally frustrates me about UFO enthusiasm is that 'alien' means the exact same thing as 'magic made X thing happen here.' It's not useful because aliens are magic for all intents and purposes, just cloaked in the language of popular scientism. If you can say 'an unknown technology can do X' and X can be anything, than the claim is the same as saying 'this is possible because an elf could do it.' This is why many UFO-proponents respond to this reality the same way the fanatically religious do, 'how dare you question my belief.'
The thing that personally frustrates me about vaccine enthusiasm is that 'vaccine' means the exact same thing as 'magic made X disease gone' It's not useful because vaccines are magic for all intents and purposes, just cloaked in the language of popular scientism. If you can say 'a new vaccine can cure X' and X can be anything, than the claim is the same as saying 'this is possible because an elf could do it.' This is why many vaccine-proponents respond to this reality the same way the fanatically religious do, 'how dare you question my belief.'
See how that sounds? This could apply to literally any group of people with vocal beliefs. And no, I'm not an anti-vaxxer.
“Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.”-Arthur C. Clarke
@@jacquesstrapp3219👍👍👍👍
@@jacquesstrapp3219 You're quoting a fiction writer... Just because someone said something once in the past doesn't make it true.
@@chrisblashill7265 Right. It's a cool idea but it runs into a few issues. Sure, I buy the premise that it's possible to mimic what a lower tech person would see as "magic" using "sufficiently advanced technology". But sometimes the best solution to a problem is not the magic solution. Why would alien craft in our atmosphere look like blurs of light when they could be ordinary aerodynamic craft? Even better, they could disguise as meteors or birds or other natural or human-created phenomena. What's the point of making technology that seems like magic when that is rarely the optimal solution?
Technology, no matter how advanced, will also eventually run into the constraints of physics. I'm pretty confident that the laws of thermodynamics, causality, and gravity are not going to be violated by any technology, no matter how advanced. So when one of these UAPs suddenly change direction, where does the energy come from for that change? Where does the waste heat go? Maybe some people consider that a small-minded attitude but I will continue to believe in the forward flow of time and the reality of mass and energy, thanks.
"The absence of evidence doesn't mean evidence of absence." Dr. Carl Sagan
Even if there was absolute proof that unicorns didn’t exist, that doesn’t disprove the existence of unicorn farts.
Oh yes, let's use an absurd example for a simple statement.
@@MarcosElMalo2Please...unicorns don't fart, too classy for it, doesn't stop Bigfoot from always saying "it was the unicorn" everytime. Always makes the pixies giggle.
@@dhuckbourning7165 it’s called reductio absurdum. It’s the technique of disproving a statement by showing how it leads to illogical conclusions.
This excercise was awesome. Very good attempt at defending an argument with sound reasoning and scientific logic. I really enjoyed it. I think it is exactly how these topics should be approached. What you just explained is what we know and understand based on our current scientific level of development and the evidence it provides.
Now, that doesn't rule out the chances that our understanding and knowledge is limited, but that should not come as a surprise to anybody because that's exactly how science works.
Ryan... I've watched a LOT of you vids & really appreciate them. The first post was extra special for me. I already read this video (text) yesterday & knew where this was going. However, seeing into your raw work was its own treat (I'm not sure you wanted us to see it, but *I* appreciated it). SO much behind the scenes work goes into your polished product.
Ok, enough rambling from me. I'm sure you know what I'm saying. Here's a donation that is long overdue. Please keep us informed with your great videos.
Thank you, Ryan!
- David
That’s really kind of you, David. Thank you.
@Ryan McBeth One of the things that bothered me about this process is the fact that the guy worked in Military Intelligence. When people hear that, they think about James Bond. Given your work in ISR, it might be nice for you to do a video describing what MI people do.
It's also funny that people are willing to believe every single high ranking person in the government and military and likely the government and military of every other country is lying but this guy, with no evidence, is telling the truth.
Especially when the truth is that there are a bunch of aliens here who want to stay unseen but don't care about their maned ships crashing.
The aliens are always a prop, never a player.
This video is just Ryan spending half an hour coming up with his own parameters for the Drake equation. Many much more knowledgeable people have already spent decades of research on estimating these values. Many reasonable estimates suggest a high likelihood of alien life. That paradox is why the Fermi Paradox and Great Filter theory were created.
Ryan does not address any of the evidence for alien life or visitation.
And, in fact, by Ryan's logic, human life does not exist either, purely by the high unlikelihood of it, despite any evidence to the contrary.
Hi. I'm a biologist and most of the descriptions of new species happen during monitoring expeditions. You don't just set out to find a new frog, you set out to see how the local populations of herpets (anfibians and non-avian reptiles) are doing, which will involve specimen collection and sometimes, those specimens are from previously unknown species
I liked the reports of investigations around hydrothermal vents. It seems that they frequently discover new/ previously unknown species/ life forms in the waters around such vents.
As a competent chemist, I have a sound understanding of how simple molecules can form larger, more complex molecules, eventually forming living matter. The most reasonable/ expeditious way for such reactions to occur are for the gases to be dissolved in a solvent (water), for that solvent to be able to thoroughly mix the reactants (ocean currents) and for there to be a ready, constant supply of excess energy, for the making and breaking of bonds (in this case, heat). Hydrothermal vents seem like the most likely place for life to have formed on earth, and the most likely place for new life to continue forming (assuming that these 'new life forms' aren't eaten by existing life forms, first).
Creationists will adamantly refuse to consider these things as possible, because they don't understand the VAST numbers of molecules involved in every interaction. They assume that 1 molecule of 'x' has to encounter 1 molecule of 'y' to form compound 'z,' completely oblivious to the reality that every reaction is going to involve so very many molecules, that we don't have a name for these numbers, representing them exponentially, instead. So they can't understand that even if the probability of natural, unguided reactions resulting in the formation of stable, self-assembling compounds, are infinitesimally small, then the fact that they are stable and self assembling, coupled with the VAST numbers of reactants involved, means that the outcome is almost guaranteed!
But that's always the way, isn't it? The people who know nothing about a subject are always the ones who shout loudest about what they believe is impossible in regards to that subject...
I have one major takeaway. If we ever run across aliens out there, we better make damn sure they never learn where Earth is. By the way, Stephen Hawking came to the same conclusion. So, Ryan, I'd say you probably nailed it.
There is a comic book of all things that point that out, when two starships meet in intersteller space and the human ship trys to run, the Captain orders a change of course and explanies "Do you wnat to show them how to get to earth?". the coimc was a backup stories to Magnus Robot fighter around 1964.
I remember reading a short story about a human ship in deep space that meets an alien ship in deep space. Both have the same objective: to report back the existence of another intelligent species without giving away data that could be used to find the home world and wipe their own species out. After some period of tense standoff, each crew removes all tracking instrumentation and data regarding the location of their inhabited territory from the ship, and then they swap ships.
I don’t know about this argument. Any significantly more advanced civilization would have to need covet our resources.
@@Delgen1951 They do this in the Halo series too. They have a thing called the "Cole Protocol" where they do a bunch of random slip-space jumps (hyperspace in halo) away from Earth or Earth colonies before they head back to Earth or anywhere important. Meanwhile on REAL Earth we're beaming our location out 24/7 lol.
Isn't that the basis of some science fiction movie (maybe independence day)? Aliens hear the signal sent out by aricebo (the one carl sagan championed), so they come here to wipe us out?
The often overlooked criteria is that this alien civilization also has to exist at the same time as us.
Not to be all doom and gloom, but lets say there is an alien civilizatin 125 light years away that detects this incredibly weak and scattered radio signal, there is a good chance that we wont be here by the time they arrive, between overpopulation, running out of our VERY limited resources (I am including famine here), global warming, and war.
Another great video Ryan :)
If the could get here... its probably because, 1. They have tremendously more advanced technology than us and could travel light years in a blink and 2. They not carbon based life forms...?
Our science community always consider that life elsewhere will be human or carbon based.... arrogant views.
Next he needs to do a video to dispell all the "The world's going to end from __________(fill in the blank with whatever scare tactic they're using as of late)" nonsense they're constantly coming up with to get people to fund research departments.
Global warming? Well if you're old enough you'll know that in the late 70's a bunch of the "climate experts" said the next ice age was just beginning after we had a couple of particularly nasty winter's, that was good for funding some university research departments for at least 5 years (God forbid they run out of money and then have to get job's in the private sector where they'd actually have to produce results from their work, starting to catch on yet?)
Just off the top of my head here's a short list of all the things that "experts" have said was going to wipe us out since the 70's (unless of course we fund their research departments, still not catching on yet?);
Next ice age
Acid rain
Ozone depletion
Nuclear holocaust
Killer Bee's (yes, seriously, they actually had all kinds of knee jerk reactive people convinced that killer bee's were going to wipe us out within the next 10 years, they even made a movie called The Swarm that Henry Fonda, Michael Caine, Olivia DeHavilland and other big name stars were in, just like nowadays how all the latest stars are in global warming catastrophe movies, still not catching on yet?)
And now it's global warming they've got people convinced will wipe us out, how long did Al Gore say? In 20 years? 30 YEARS AGO!!!
When it comes to understanding the universe and figuring out how life started we are cavemen looking at a smartphone.Simply because we are here based on all the odds Ryan explained anything is possible in the universe.We are so arrogant we just started flying 100years ago
Thank you brother, I've been making this argument for years now(although on a not so technical way as you). I'm a scifi nerd (and worked for TSA for 14 years funny enough ahahaha) so people are always surprised that I dont believe we've ever been visited.
Neil degrasse Tyson made a similar argument about how even the nearest habitable system (if there is life there) if they looked through a telescope, they're so far they would definitely be witnessing a pre human earth, even maybe a pre-life earth. So the chances of them sending craft at random and ending up here and finding is is... Well sadly very unlikely.
How about a scifi idea of earth originating space travelers whose civilization was wiped out on the planet, but remnants survived in nearby star systems with some returning throughout the millennia? Not saying that is possible or likely, but just a fun idea for a novel, movie, or scifi series. They could be us. No need for far distant aliens or astronomical odds, distances, or timing, just some civilization ending ice ages, wars, or other cataclysms, and technological advancements maybe a hundred or more years beyond our current capabilities.
@@dvvinever I'l be watching that movie with pleasure... turn it into a religion no, don't think so... why replace something broken with nothing?...
lights in the night sky have been around forever; the jump to universe traveling intelligent species shows the imagination of the human species.
I'm starting to doubt the claims of UFOs, I found the last congressional hearing disappointing to say the least. It is captivating, hope there's definitely something that prove there is life in other planets. But not holding my hopes that we are being visited.
I will keep watch if this goes somewhere fruitful.
I'm calling it, there fancy drones that they won't tell us about for 50 years, like the blackbird of our time.
The best conclusion is that we might be the smartest creatures in the universe.
That’s a pretty low bar.... For the entire universe. Plus, if we’re accounting for the Fermi Paradox. It’s likely if any other intelligent being existed they are either way too far or died out long ago.
Or dumbest
Just us and the Pakleds.
If we define intelligence as galaxy level space travel, there are no known intelligent species.
Reversing this logic, there may be more intelligent species who for whichever reasons haven't become massive space farers.
we are the Universe thinking about itself
This is assuming we understand everything in the universe. I do not know what to think about all this UAP stuff but hopefully we find out what is going on.
Every video you make is so well made. All of the research and effort that you put into them is clear and I enjoy every second. Also as an aspiring journalist it’s great to see an independent journalist reaching this many people this quickly.
I have been waiting for your take on this, you’re one of the only people I trust on this sort of thing (especially as I’m too lazy to keep up with everything and analyse it myself 😂)
Government shill
Imagine there's smoke in your house, so you sit down and run the numbers on what the chances are your house is on fire at any given moment.
That's what this video is doing - it's not an assessment of any of the evidence that's being presented
@@alec3205 yeah, I was hoping he would talk about some of the new evidence that's been presented and some of stuff that's just wild theory.
@@alec3205 - There is no “evidence…”
@@Steve-ev6vx - and no “new evidence…”
Making projections about an intelligent life intentions is like commenting the moves of pro chess players after having read the Wikipedia's chess article.
There are a lot of things that can be reasonably speculated on. Eg. They would be exposed to the same laws of physics, chemistry and evolution. With the later, the selection pressures may be different but the rules of the game will be the same.
@somethinglikethat2176 A computer is also based on the law of physics, yet trying to understand what computation it is doing based on its circuitry is a very difficult task. Add the possibility that a superintelligence would likely use quantum properties such as non-locality and interferences, which would imply that there is no chance to understand them without having mastered quantum computers ourselves.
If there is intelligent life outside of Earth then it could be super far ahead of us technologically that we can not even begin to imagine imagine showing a caveman a 3D printer or trying to explain AI they could never be able to imagine that
I once heard an analogy that compared it to us trying to communicate to an ant colony. We know the ants are there, but they are so insignificant to us that we dont even bother.
Perhaps their is intelligent life.
Maybe they are superior or even far far superior. Doesn’t mean they would travel at all. Perhaps they are content where they are. Maybe they are not as intelligent as us. Maybe grazers and nothing more. Maybe they are about as intelligent as we are. We like to think we’re not alone but maybe we are alone. It’s all probability.
But what if the aliens were silicon based ,not carbon . Think of these aliens as computer AI type. Humans view distance and speed in the construct in time. The time it takes to travel from point x to y. Our limitations are based on our lifespan. If we traveled at 10 % of the speed of light the closest star would take 43 years,an entire adult lifespan. But what if our lifespan was in the thousands of years. A 43 year voyage with a 43,000 year lifespan is 1/1000 . Aliens could easily transverse space. I'm just hoping these aliens are explorers or lost. The reality that they are the highway engineers that are planning an off ramp thru our planet would be a sad ending. Thanks for the fish!
What if we are the advanced aliens and there are less advanced things on other planets?
If there is something out there with the capabilities to do what the tick tack can do, if we believe commander David Fravor as I do and we are broadcasting our location out into space why wouldn't they come check it out? He testified before congress that what he saw was not bound by the laws of physics as we understand them.
There is something people also tend to forget: the intelligence barrier. Sure, life can exist, but the vast majority of life that does and did exist(that we know of) cannot bring itself to a civilization level. In fact, for the vast majority of evolutionary history, high intelligence was not that useful when compared to the immense energy investment cost that it required; and therefore you didn’t see it that often in nature. Life on this earth is 3.7 billion years old(multicellular life being only 700 million years). The last common ancestor between humans and the great apes was only around 7 million ago. 3.7 billion years of different species, and nothing with the level of civilizational complexity has ever even come close to us.
Smart people can be really dumb sometimes too! This video will be used in the future to teach naivety
Thats great video with a lot of good points about how we understand life and how we think life might be there. I would add something else. In Amazon rainforest, there are uncontacted Indians who have no contact with the outside world. If I good understand, there are particular laws which protect them before us. We know they exist but we don't go there. They don't know about the technological development of the Western world (the same as we do not know anything about any life in our galaxy and universe, if exists), a part of seeing flying planes from distances (the same as some of us see sometimes what we describe as UFO or UAP?). But we don't know what they think about them (tribes about planes) and how they perceive them. Taking this as an analogy, aliens might be visiting our planet but might not want contact with us. Why would they if we have nothing valuable for them to offer? We don't go to Indians to take their resources like fruits and meat because we can grove them by ourselves on a much larger scale. Of course, there are historical implications (crusade) and industrial implications (cutting rain forests) but my point is if they exist and taking your and my points of view for consideration, we have absolutely no way to find out what might be their intentions before they become absolutely clear. I'm not saying they visiting us. There is nothing clearly and publicly proven (yet?).
The universe is so unimaginable vast. We think we know a lot.. and maybe we do. But do we?
Never would I have believe I’d be in a Wendy’s parking lot only for it to be shown in the video I’m watching as I wait in the drive through
All of the core material I already knew, but the presentation is unlike anything I have ever seen or heard. I believe anyone can learn anything, but to truly understand, to be an expert you must be able to teach others. Only the best can teach anyone. Thank you Ryan for making us a little bit smarter.
I’d like to share this with my mom, who’s obsessed with the ancient aliens myth. But I’m afraid it’s too late to deprogram her.
Then you never 'got' the content. Ancient Aliens theory suggests they already 'found' earth and had a genetic intervention. Mesopotamian and others myth has humans enhanced to mine resouces; a slave race.
It's pretty difficult to dismiss these hearings happening now, I think it's worth giving it another look
Actually it is you that is programmed.
@@alec3205Have you seen Mick West's videos? The footage they reference in the hearings has all been debunked. Everything else is literally just hearsay.
Wow. Ready good stuff in hear. More please…. of these types of videos that explain complicated systems in a simplify way.
Another consideration. Why would the aliens hide from us? It would be like humans hiding from the tree frogs. The aliens with the ability of interstellar travel would have no interest in a bunch of apes who wear clothes and who drive around in primitive metal boxes. They'd do whatever it is that they came here to do, and not give us a second thought. Except maybe swat us away if we became too much of a pest.
Look up North Sentinel Island.
@@ASlickNamedPimpback also "Murderer's Bay" in New Zealand. Life is by definition able to die.
Well, sometimes a biologist will need to hide themselves from an animal they're studying to observe its natural behaviors. If we *are* in a 1 in 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 situation where super advanced alien scientists are observing us, we would probably never notice it. (Which also means they would probably not leave a bunch of their junk around for us to find.)
To me, the most likely way we would have semi-contact with an alien civilzation is with some sort of ancient, dilapidated drone sent by a long-dead species. Something like, say, Oumuamua. (Even that is a super stretch.)
Life, so far, appears quite rare in the universe if an advanced species found us, I believe it would be high on their list to at least send probes observe us more closely -- notwithstanding issues of covering such vast distances.
In this scenario, they’re not worried we can hurt them. They’re worried that we’re bait in a trap constructed by a more technologically advanced species.
We have to remember that the term unidentified flying object does not refer to alien, just because that flying thing doesn’t have a designation and look like a shape we expect to see doesn’t mean it’s from another planet
Also it might not even be an object. Thus the term "uap" (unidentified aerial phenomenon) has replaced "UFO" in investigative circles to account for complex mirages.
@hoej Unless you're talking about the handful that were picked up on multiple radars and thermal targeting systems while also being seen visually. A mirage doesn't cause that, an object does.
@@cruise_missile8387 agreed. But again. Just because we don't know what it is, doesn't mean it's alien
@mrdlewis22 Well certainly, and my perspective on that we only have enough to maybe narrow down the list of reasonable hypotheses and improve the investigative direction but we currently don't have enough to come to a conclusion. People are wanting to skip the uncertainty phase and jump to a conclusion but we just don't have enough for that. We can't say it's aliens or off-world drones or something but we certainly should take the possibility seriously while understanding that it could easily be something a rival government has developed, or something we have developed and have kept compartmentalized away from the public and even most military personnel (just having a top-secret clearance doesn't get you access to anything labeled "top-secret," there's a lot more to gaining access and we keep things even from ourselves all the time).
I'm comfortable taking several possibilities seriously and then leaving it inconclusive more info comes in to where we can confirm a hypothesis.
Huge fan and love your work evaluating various forms of DIP or just conflict in general using OSINT. Much of the logic in this video is well reasoned but as this is not your field I fear that you may have fallen into the trap of false assumptions in some of your reasoning. One example is your assumption that a UFO or UAP is indicative of a life form visiting from some faraway galaxy. Jacques Vallee one of the most well-respected researchers in the field (he is literally the guy that Spielberg made the model for the French scientist in Close Encounters movie) has put forth his theory that there is a much higher probability that UFO/UAP represents some contact with entities from a different dimension or timeline. It is widely accepted today amongst the scientific community that string theory does not work with less than 10 dimensions and M theory requires AT LEAST 11 (though some would argue more). Discounting the possibility of interdimensional travel without addressing it may be attractive as it's impossible for us to attempt to construct a framework to evaluate but it still opens you up to a massive tower of assumptions built on a foundation that may or may not exist. Similarly, the theory of UFO/UAP/Gray aliens, etc. representing some form of future-developed entities that are traveling in time rather than space is impossible to calculate and yet should not be dismissed without note. You start your video saying that you evaluated for foreign fuckery in an attempt to destabilize America and could not find it. Granting the assumptions that: 1. At least SOME of the objects observed fail all current attempts at classification. 2. At least SOME of the people who have given sworn testimony before Congress and within the military to the proper channels were telling the truth (otherwise they should have faced charges). Then I would posit that it makes far more sense to follow those threads of logic rather than calculate through Drake and Fermi and assume a disspositive. My gut call is that the greatest probability by far is that a secret branch of technological innovation has been going on for decades and that we may have craft and more importantly tech that can spoof sensors/eyeballs that create lots of incidents that we choose not to explain to our populace as do other large global powers but I do not discount the possibility that there is some explanation for all this that points to outside involvement. Hell, for that matter if the proponents of simulation theory are correct it could be a glitch in the code or the intelligence who runs the code screwing with us. My only point here is that all evaluations are built on a set of assumptions and that this particular subject may be slightly outside of your field requiring further thought. Love your stuff, keep creating thoughtful content.
Really good video, and a good take on the topic.
There is one thing that I don't find usually addressed - whenever a alleged observation of an alien craft occurs, it is practically always a small craft, and if crew is seen, it is just a few individuals. We have not made an observation of any larger craft to date (and by larger, I mean REALLY large; I will get to the reasons why). I wouldn't expect such a craft in the atmosphere (that's where the smaller craft would go), but I would expect one closeby, if at least some of the small craft observations are genuine.
The reason is simple: Given the insane distances, no "friendly port" on Earth and as far as we can tell, nowhere in the inner Solar System (could be hidden further away, but I somewhat doubt that either; we would already have some "wtf" observations of something seriously unnatural "over there"), therefore a smaller craft would not do, especially if crewed. It would be as if Queen Isabella sent Columbus to the Indies in just a row boat. That would apply even if FTL is available - while the dangers of travel would largely be eliminated, the dangers of the destination would still be there. And since there were allegedly observed crashes, those dangers are not apparently fully addressed.
On top of that, as stated in the video, our technological civilsation is observable only for about, give or take, hundred years directly; we can stretch that if we go with polution from the industrial revolution onward (although even that is a major stretch; until, say, WW1-WW2, a small asteroid impact would leave similar effects to the planet's atmosphere, so really, not a good reason for sending a crewed craft to investigate). That means that unless said civilisation is either spanning a very large portion of the Milky Way, or is very close, they wouldn't be here because of "us" (and if they were any of those two, we would most likely notice them by now too). Which brings us back to the forest frog analogy - I just find it very unlikely that anyone would send a row boat over the Atlantic to observe them.
Now, it is possible that a larger craft is in the outer solar system and it is sending crewed craft our way to perform observations, for whichever reason - and we only didn't observe it, because it possesses cloaking technology. I also find that a bit hard to believe, because even if the mother craft would be hidden from us, the smaller craft apparently isn't - as far as I am aware, there were no attempts reported of the alleged alien craft cloaking (in fact, given how common UAP supposedly are, they don't seem to bother with cloaking; in fact, they don't seem to bother staying out of sight, they just preffer staying out of focus), but also, I don't recall any story of an attempted retrieval of their crashed craft (something one really would want to do if they went to the lenghts of hiding themselves from our sight with cloaking a large interstellar-flight-capable spacecraft), overall, it just doesn't come together well.
Finally, let's say they are indeed not here for us, and came from a large distance to make some in-site observations. I mean, we do that too with large scientific expeditions, just see Antarctica. That runs into another hurdle - we would have to be INCREDIBLY contemporary to one another as civilisations. The timescales of the Universe are immensly large. Compare that to the technological explosion as stated in the video. If they weren't our contemporaries, they would either be here already, and would have been so for a very, very long time, or they wouldn't be "at all". While the likelihood of them being from relatively the same time period as us (we are talking hundreds of thousands of years to a few millions, if I am to be generous, compared to the 13 billion year age of the Milky Way) is not zero, it is incredibly small. And if they indeed were from the same time period as us, that would strongly imply that there would be others popping up all the time - there would have to be at least a few much older "empires" that would eventually come our way anyway. And for that, see above.
Overall, even though I strongly believe there is life elsewhere in the Universe, and probably also in the galaxy, with all likelyhood, "they" are not here. It just doesn't add up.
And finally - to quote Carl Sagan:
"Extraordinary claims require extrordinary evidence."
So far, everyone making claims about aliens have failed to produce sufficient evidence.
False.
The larger the craft, or the larger the number of craft, the more likely the hoax will be exposed.
UFOs are a strategic deception to confuse the potential adversaries of the United States, by convincing them that America might have access to alien technology.
curious how do you view the data collected by those aircraft pilots? insufficient?
@@driver3899 Out of focus undefined imagery and eyewitness testimony of phenomenon that hasn´t been seen before and lasts a few seconds.
Yea, I would call it insufficient.
Perhaps small craft are sufficient with their level of technology, so there is no need to send larger craft.
If aliens have been watching us, they probably already know by now that they don't need to wipe us out. We're doing a great job doing that ourselves.
Na it's human Nature what we are doing that's hiw we grow lol 😂🤣🤣
Who says they want to wipe us out??
I was thinking the same thing.
Just playing the long game...
Bingo.
I feel one thing is often missing in these discussions: AI. A hyper advanced intelligent extraterrestrial race can invent AI that not only solves every scientific problem imaginable, but could potentially also be sent out on space missions, exploring new planets and galaxies, setting up colonies that can later be inhabited, or making contact with other life forms. A human lifespan is NOTHING compared to a hyper advanced "ai race" that can explore space, exploit planet resources, repair or build new copies of itself, and find new sources of power.
Right. Even without AI we're more likely to see a robotic probe than organic aliens in a spaceship.
Also.. They can use AI to design entire spacecraft in a very small amount of time. If they have actual nano tech they can literally grow these vessels. Think about that.
I don’t think your example of AI not being discussed is for a very good reason. We are discussing the possibilities of extra terrestrial life in what ever form that takes, it is a whole level on its own to then discuss whether they use something which may be very much a human invention: AI. It’s a bit like all those Shorts on YT where we see a Racoon embarrassed for kissing a cat or whatever, using human only phenomena to explain non human behaviours. We cannot assume AI is a thing anywhere else.
Ikr. Especially if you give them blond hair, pretty eyelashes and fragile little bodies. But seriously, good point, the old saying applies regarding a more advanced species tech appearing as magic even to all our calculations.
It's been discussed to death 😂
I loved the reference to the mcflurry machine, but the Blockbuster reference took the #1 spot!
This is excellent! I didn't anticipate such a well-done analysis. High five to Ryan!
🖐🖐🖐
Carbon is the "most likely" thing that would form life, not the "only". Silicon based life forms could form as well (not as likely) and have incredibly different tolerances than we would. This would depending either increase or decrese the "Goldy Locks" zone for habital planets from stars. Meaning we may dismiss entire solar systems because we dont understand what forms of life would take.
Very good analysis! One thing is there might be facts we’re missing which could change those equations drastically. You can’t base anything off of vague unknowns, but it’s worth considering. There’s still alot of physics we’re not quite sure about.
My thoughts exactly! We can't also assume that for everywhere else in the universe, life occurs in the same way as here
@@rodrigofaria4498This is always my answer when asked what I think. Yes as far as we can tell, life requires the basics that Ryan mentioned, but we cannot see the whole universe, nor is what we are seeing current. I think preppie forget that if something is X number of light years away, what we observe (assuming we aren’t missing some parts of physics), is X years ago, or more. Time is a function of distance here, and visa versa, at least for us.
At the end of the day, my answer is we simply don’t know what we don’t know, and I know less than that. However, based on the size of the universe and the odds, I suspect life exists in some form, whether we recognize it as life or not, and whether “it has happened yet” (based on the speed that information travels to us, and the distance it is from us) or not.
But for now, I’ll keep living my own life, since there’s not much I can do either way.
The idea that ufos flying here from other galaxies and then crashing or us seeing them makes as much sense as a ant noticing a jet flying at 30000 feet.
That arbitrarily underestimates human capabilities and overestimates theirs.
I'd like to put a counter argument for your cost/benefit point. Yes for us, space travel is insanely expensive and a monumental task right now, but we don't know if it's the same case for any alien species. Once again if we take examples from ourselves, shipping goods from britain to india was a monumental task at the time. It took almost a year to ship, you needed lots of crew and maintenance, it had the risk of sinking and sacking.
But now, it's the cheapest way of transportation and with a few more bucks you can ship it via airplane.
Trying to explain an alien species' behaviour with rules set by human beings just falls apart by itself because, well, we ourselves set those rules in the first place. We cannot understand how alien species think or prioritize.
Awe, I liked the raw edit. It was very relatable!
Ryan McBeth hears about aliens, sighs, rolls up his sleeve and gets cracking on a 5 minute PhD in Astronomy and Astrophysics, and ends up producing a video with as much quality of content, and coherent explanation of concepts as could be seen in Kurzgesagt's videos.
What an outstanding effort to make this video, keep up the great work Dr. McBeth!
And he took it seriously. You can see no cigars/scotch. Just complex data.
So he is an astro physicist? Interesting tho. I do not think we have been visited. Why would super intelligent life travel billions of light years to visit this loser world, and all of the craft cited are so vague and varied. The congressional hearings were just dumb.
Ryan, your thought process is quite logical, but recent US airforce encounter with UFO still needs to be explained kinetically. Without logical explanation of the recorded object your logical discussion is wrong explanation to the UFO our highly trained pilots!
Absolutely splendid work Ryan. Very amusing and informative. I take my hat off to you Sir. Well done!
I watched a guy with a metal detector walk around the Roswell crash site for hours and eventually he found a twisted piece of metal. It was tested by UNM metallurgists and came back as 1930s aircraft aluminum
legend has it the army went back to crash sites and spread trash around to cover anything they missed. read american cosmic. very good read and answers a ton of questions. also, the assumption that pieces of a craft may be detectable is an assumption.
@@ernie8419 I can say very confidently that never occurred. A huge majority of the pieces he has found over the years are one type of thin sheeting, very tiny and shredded from some type of impact. He also has a small number of boot eyelets and other metal bits from the soldiers on cleanup duty. There was clearly an effort made to remove everything, and only the smallest and most dispersed pieces remain.
@@ernie8419 The assumption that there were aliens and alien ships is also an assumption. No credible evidence for any alien visitation has been found.
@@ernie8419 This guy talking about 'legends' and wife tales when documents have been released what exactly crashed there. Just boggles the mind how poeple keep sweeping facts and hard evidence under the rug to keep their movie fantasies alive.
@@nosferatu5documents released by known liars are hardly proof of anything.
I know I’m late to the discussion, but there’s only one reason to travel to earth, “it’s the surf”!!!
Perfect M-class sun, 2/3rd’s -1/3rd water/rocky planet, in the habitable zone, and a prefect 1/3rd single moon. Sun, wind, waves… the only reason to visit earth:-)
Excellent. I think all you missed was the possibility that aliens were already flying about space, maybe checking out rocks & stuff, then being much closer in their Mothership, sent smaller ships to check out the Earth. So, in effect they didn't need to travel all the way from home.
Anyway, just a thought.😁
Good point of many theories not covered here.
If aliens have been here from even before humans evolved, an automated factory arriving to our solar system, mining resources to print purpose-built vehicles, growing pilots, etc., there isn't a resource transport issue.
As far as information not traveling faster than light, there really isn't much evidence for non-FTL travel. Most reports and footage show crafts not following the known "laws" of physics. Applying our already inadequate understanding of physics to the thousands of accounts, photos, and videos just doesn't seem very useful either, but I'm just a random dude without any expertise so what do I know? 😂
This is really well done.
There isn’t much to argue against here, and I generally agree with your conclusion regarding the probability that the earth has been visited by extraterrestrial intelligent life.
What you didn’t touch on is the possibility that a civilization, or the non-biological descendants of a civilization, could have launched autonomous self-replicating devices to conduct a survey of the galaxy, much in the same way we now have semiautonomous undersea drones mapping the sea floor. Such a program would not be constrained by time and space the way a biological entity would be. And as it would expand approximately exponentially as it progressed, only one civilization with sufficient sophistication would be required to set in motion a massive, galaxy spanning endeavor.
This basic concept has been proposed both in the scientific and science fiction communities.
Talk about a video I did not expect from Ryan McBeth. Nicely done, Mr. McBeth.
The entire 3 body series is phenomenal
Big Fan of your channel! I read 3 Body Problem and I think the conclusion is not as logical as it seems but based on the biased and dark worldview of the author who had to live through some pretty terrible times.
I have dogs. They are inferior to me. I don't kill them because one day they might evolve. In fact I adore their dumb slobbering company very much and spend way too much money on them. I don't wage war against chimps or gorillas because one day they might evolve. Or Dolphins, or Parrots. Would aliens see us as Pets? Maybe, or like children. I'm not going to kill my kid either because one day he might hate me or marry a gold digger. Where was I?
Any civilization advanced enough to visit us would really have no reason to kill us off because why bother? We will NEVER be a threat. They will ALWAYS be ahead of us technologically. I find the idea that Humans will somehow catch up to be pretty anthropocentric. ( I think I just made up that word. )
Here is another one. Imagine going on a hike in the Forest. ( Okay, the Dark Forest ) It wouldn't be much fun if there were no critters. It would be very lonely. I'm the optimist here. I think any greatly advanced civilization would be exactly that. Advanced. Not like us savages. They would like to see what becomes of us. Maybe they would take pleasure in the day we finally figure out how to ask for our own bottle ( of Scotch ).
Respectfully, I liked 3 Body Problem but to a Hammer - everything is a Nail. If you live, breathe, eat military you have to be careful not to see everything and everyone as a threat. FYI. 8 year of Navy speaking. Family are all Navy. Okay... one Coast Guard. Coast Guard counts man!
Cheers
Thank you for the opportunity to contribute to this. It's been a fun experience getting to help out with this video.
Your numbers are low. (sizes of the Galaxy, a couple others.)
Your analysis of this is spot on. The Analogies hurt my brain though.
Point made. They're full of shit until they produce the evidence for the Public and NON-Govt. funded or affiliated Scientists to analyze.
Consider also the possibility of interdimensional visitors. This is also mentioned in the Remembrance of Earth's Past book series by Cixin Liu (Three-body-problem books you mentioned). He also talked about the Farmer and the Shooter hypthesis.
Stephen Greer and David Grusch have both said that interdimentional is their working theory.
The problem with the interdimensional/universal hypothesis is we aren't even sure other universes to travel from exist for certain, add on to that that you are making earths needle in a galaxy sized haystack problem even worse. now you've got EVEN MORE empty space to find us in.
unless you're referring to say a 4th or 5th dimensional entity interactic which...again, not impossible, but we aren't even sure those actually exist, and there's still the "space is big" problem.
To be honest, Ryan delivered a banger once again! Love it! It's also one of the most American video ever
“Space is really big. If you tried to think about it, you’d fail.”
-Kurtzgesagt
Very Earth-centric analysis. Aliens might think differently and have different motivations or ideas about cost or effort. Just because we often wiped out less technologically advanced people in our history doesn't mean an alien species necessarily would. We're still just barely taking our first baby steps out of this sphere. Assuming we have it all figured out and can make declarations about where life can be and their motivations is the epitome of human hubris.
If these advanced beings can do all this, how do they get here & get seen by pilots? They wouldn’t have cloaking devices for their craft? Regardless of anything, we’re still looking at millions or billions of light years to get here. Any civilization that can do that is not gonna be seen, or have a craft that ‘breaks down’ after all that..
@@goldenageofdinosaurs7192 What if they are interdimensional beings? They don't need to travel billions of light years to get here if they occupy the same space in a different dimension. Also, we are highly advanced in technology compared to our ancestors - and yet we still deal with 'break downs' as well.
@@goldenageofdinosaurs7192 The closest solar system to ours is only 4.5 light years away. Making assumptions about alien technology capabilities, not knowing at all how they work, is also kind'a silly. Assuming they have cloaking devices, assuming there's no way to cover vast distances faster than we currently think, or assuming they're invulnerable are all silly.
What a great presentation, putting things into context that we ordinarily people can understand
Love the hockey reference but Patrick Roy's last name is pronounced like "whaw" because he's French-Canadian. Don't ask me why.
Thanks for another entertaining and down to earth explanation of a "sciency" concept that appears to be difficult for many to grasp. Also you have come to the same conclusion as me which means you must be very wise and competent. Wait a minute I am not so competent...
this is a better explanation of the great filter concept then the original great filter explanation i've seen lmao
I pretty much agree with the whole analyzes in this video. Though, i only hoped that he went a bit deeper in the Nimitz incident (one of the three guys during the testimony was a Fighter pilot at the USS Nimitz). The one specific reason why i gained interest in this sighting is because objects were also on radar on board of the Nimitz. Backing up some important claims that the pilot explained. The other two guys are pretty much the ''trust me bro'' type of people to me, but i can't look inside of their heads of course.
When it comes to that Nimitz incident let me not be the guy that immediately says ''its aliens!''. But if even the pentagon can't figure out what it was then I'm still left with one certain question. Which is.., can we theoretically build aircraft that is able accelerate from 0 to mag 1 in a fraction of a second? It will of course kill any person inside, but therefore think of a drone. Is this completely physically impossible? Or can we do it when we have reached higher levels of advanced technology?
If the answer is no, then cased closed. If the answer is yes, then we could have been beaten to it. That of course does not confirm anything of the sightings. The famous saying by Carl Segan ''Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence'' is still very important when it comes to these subjects. But i just love to think about the possibilities and be open minded about it. So please don't ridicule my questions, I'm just curious and think that it's just fun to speculate about these type of mysterious subjects.
I love the breakdown on physical requirements that likely have to be met! Still feel like there's a lot more wiggle room when it comes to value sets and psychology though. We view things through a certain range of lenses primarily because of our environment. Another species that developed in a different environment may have an ingrained range of lenses that differs accordingly. FE What does a species that develops in an environment with less or non-existent intelligent predation look like? Would they necessarily view us as a threat to be eliminated, or as a potential neighbor to engage in cultural exchange with? It seems like a lonely universe out there, and the resource crunch doesn't really factor until the theorized late stages of the universe unless intelligent spacefaring life is far more prevalent than it appears to be.
Still overall agree it's a very low likelihood we've been visited. The current noise seems far more useful as a smokescreen for dark projects that, as some others put it, we won't find out about for another 50 years.
AWESOME ANALYSIS!!!!
Great points, can't imagine the work you put into this and great work being concise, im sure you could make an entire series of videos