Toronto Real Estate Sales 'SURGE' to 3rd Worst Since 2014:
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 11 ม.ค. 2025
- #torontorealestate #torontohousingmarket #toronto
Toronto Real Estate sales surged upward in November, increasing 40% from the year prior, with First Time Home Buyers facing a dilemma: Wait for the Bank of Canada to cut rates, or try to beat the hyped-up spring 2025 market.
Links:
TRREB Marketwatch:
trreb.ca/marke...
Toronto’s first-time homebuyers have saved up and are finally ready to buy - but there’s one thing holding them back:
www.thestar.co...
Toronto’s housing market will boom in 2025, Royal LePage head says - making it the most expensive market in Canada:
www.thestar.co...
Greater Toronto home sales continue post-rate cut surge: real estate board:
www.cp24.com/l...
Toronto home sales rise as lower interest rates bring buyers back to market:
financialpost....
Policy interest rate:
www.bankofcana...
Suddenly Toronto homes aren’t selling - even desirable ones. Here’s why realtors say owners are to blame:
www.thestar.co...
GTA Condo Supply Is Approaching A Number “The Market Has Never Seen”:
storeys.com/gt...
By how much could the Bank of Canada cut rates in December?:
www.mpamag.com...
Canadian Mortgage Rates To Rise, Housing Unaffordable Until 2035: Oxford Econ:
betterdwelling...
Why three big banks raised fixed mortgage rates despite falling bond yields:
www.canadianmo...
Interest Rates: Immediate Rates (24 Hours): Prime Rates: Total for Canada:
fred.stlouisfe...
Half-point interest-rate cut back in play after meagre third-quarter Canadian GDP growth:
www.theglobean...
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Its amazing how in 2024 you get better information from someone with 20k subs on youtube than legacy media.
Thanks bossross!! I really appreciate that :)
Yet, it’s still surprising he has less then 20k subscriber. Beats me!
The dry humor is great. Thanks again.
lol thanks LC!! Always appreciated :)
Hey Mark, did you see former BoC governor Stephen Poloz remarks today? Canada in recession (no shit) with stagflation a real threat. Canadians lost 30% purchasing power.
You should have Mr. Poloz on the show
Hey dev4stating,
I did yeah (and I was thinking the same thing :)) - I'll see what I can do!
Aside from analyzing the total number of active listings, I wonder how much of it is comprised of 1 br shoebox condos vs. More desirable properties like 2 br condos, tome homes, multiplexes, single unit houses, etc.
Aside from that, great work as usual. Seems like the Canadian media has been a mouthpiece for the RE industry, drumming up FOMO regardless of market conditions.
Hey Wizegui,
Thanks for the comment :) Agreed - I did some preliminary checks and it doesn't look like its all shoebox - maybe I'll cover that in a future video :)
Never believe a salesman.
Media: "Sales are surging!"
Reality: Sales were so low to begin with that any positive percentage change would make the media think things are improving.
We went from 10 to 14 sales
It’s 40% increase 😱
Lol - that about sums it up!
Great update!
Thanks jay!!
mark bringing the heat as always. your channel has justly doubled in size since i first started following
Hey joe,
Thanks so much! Definitely getting up there :)
These sales stats are even worse when total population is accounted for (population was much lower in 2014).
The spring market has sky high expectations. The expectation is that lower prime rates = lower mortgage rates. When these expectations are failed to be met, it will have a reverse effect of escalating prices. It will spark a short term spike in sales activity as people adapt their psychology/expectations to the reality of higher rates.
Spring/summer 2025 will be characterized by higher sales, lower prices and higher unemployment. Reality will slowly keep hitting people, the stubbornly high rates are here to stay for the long term.
Thanks for calling out the bs Mark.
Hey Casey,
Thanks as always - I had though very much the same thing - with population increases, the sales starts are absolutely dismal.
Also agreed - I think there is a thought out there that with the BoC cutting fixed rates are heading sub-3. We'll see what happens!
Again, great job......... One of my daily must watch subscriptions.
Thanks shawn!! I really appreciate that :)
Good analysis as always. Thanks Mark.
Thanks dexter!!
Lol that headline! 😂 👏 Thanks.
Lol :) Thanks Casey!!
Thank you for the video Mr. Mitchell.
Hey lawrence,
Very welcome :) Thanks as always for the comment!
Excellent analysis, no hype and no weird agenda. 😎👍
Thanks motoxguy!!
Hate to be that guy but I’m almost 100% sure there won’t be a boom in sales .!! Here are the reasons.
1. Houses are too expensive
2. Inflation is still high
3. Cost of living is over the top
4. We’re over taxed people are broke
5. Interest rates are way too high.
Hey legacy,
Thanks for the comment :) I guess if you want to look at the facts then sure..
Thanks for clicking!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
lol thanks Brett!
Thanks Mark.... you see beyond the bs...
Hey MC,
Very welcome :) Thanks for watching!
Just hold on Canada and don’t buy nothing . Maybe you guys should watch Marks last vid and read the Christmas books. Let the market fall and don’t be caught holding the bag. Lots of room to come down.
Thanks JM!! Agreed lol - they're good books!
You should have sent a few box’s to the conservatives since they have been the worst fiscally responsible that I’ve seen in my life time. Harper and Mulroney
The housing market is adopting a "Fake it til you make it" approach to real estate booms.
That's a good way to put it!
Looking at your data of the past 11 yrs, Active Listings and MOI are at their highest, approx 50% higher than the Average over the 11 yrs. Big Supply(Listings) and Low Demand(MOI) should be pushing down on prices. Lower Int will incr affordability and Demand pushing up price. BUT I believe there are many Bears that are waiting for the Recession to arrive and get a great price on a house, thus dont expect a rush to buy will a 50bp int reduction.
Hi bipolarpunt,
Thanks as always for the great comment :) I agree - there will be a floor put on prices - I'm just not sure we're heading back as high as that which is being forecasted.
Keep up this great reporting...............Love It
Thanks nick!! Will do :)
Great news Mark!
In other news I sold my thumb drive and everything on it today at $103,000 per unit.
Why is it I always sell when others are scrambling to buy?
Kinda like all my real estate in Nov 2020. I'm such a loser I guess. Hope you are well Mark.
Hey Mogul,
LOLOL - Why'd you sell? That thumb-drive is going to 10M.
@@MortgageBrokerLondonOntario it did. lol I'm always out the door before elephant herds.
An oasis of intelligent journalism in a desert of MSM twaddle. - As usual, Good one, Mark. I have to steal this from someplace, as I ran out of words, LOL!!
Lol :) Thanks Da1!! Always appreciated :)
Mark keeps asking guests how they see the 2025 renewal wave playing out but I want to know how MARK sees the 2025 renewal wave playing out!
Hey jason,
I did a video on it in the summer I think - th-cam.com/video/OjOZYAmD5yQ/w-d-xo.html - the real shock isn't coming in 25, its going to be closer to 26 if rates haven't dropped substantially.
Thanks!
Thanks for clicking
Thanks mihailmartirosyan!!
Take whatever the media says and then reverse it, you'll get at least 60% more accuracy.
The inverse media - that would be a good ETF!
Do you edit your own videos and add the clips, or do you have an editor who does it, and if so, does it make you laugh with what is inserted? Just curious. I thing the inserts are great!
Hey cryptowestcoast,
Lol - I do all of my own editing with the clips - but yeah, sometimes I do lol :)
Im a small community, far away enough you cant commute for work, you live and work in this community.
We are priced at 25% above peak, we have houses that have been for sale for years, and they still wont budge. Its fvcking confusing as hell.
If this spring market doesnt show up that will be the 3rd dude in a row.
human psychology. Make sense. And it also shows how much of it all is investment purposes rather than for living. Nobody wanna sell at a lose, or prove their theory is wrong. And it is true in the long long run price will eventually go up. And this is why price will stagnate for many many years until inflation catches up to the price. For every year the price remaining high with low sales, its also opportunity lost for the bag holders. If price don't move up then their real asset is down because of opportunity lost. The crazy part is, there is more to all of this than just money. People also sacrifice their freedom and sanity. Be cautious on what you can buy. Not everyone is psychologically ready for the consequences. It happens in the stock market all the time. An investor will hold on to a stock that went from 100/share to 0/share within a span of 10-15 years and not willing to sell. They tend to come up with a story to justify their choice. Even when the stock eventually get delisted, they will tell you that it serve as a lesson for themselves.
@@xinleizhang3209 my town 2-4x since 2020.
There is tonnes of room to come down.
It's plain stupidity
I still see toronto detached homes are selling at 2017 price. If you consider inflation, I do not see price increased at all in last 8 years. Two bed bungalows in Scarborough area is around 800k which was the case in 2017 as well. May be new houses are a bit higher. It was about 1600k and now they are 1800k.. one thing to note is, city fees increased 100% in one year.. last year development fee for one new house was 63k and this year it is 138K .. let alone all other fees.. just city takes 200k for one new house.. ! City is not helping at all .. they are money grabbers and taking the advantage.!
can you also cover northern ontario real estate? Greater City of Sudbury
Oh man I’m more excited for Dec 11 vs the 24th…
Lol - Unfortunate, I am too lol :)
people are listing now, because they aren't at risk of losing the property, those people sold in the summer at big discounts. If you are a buyer, then if you are ready to buy and can float mortgage costs now is the time to get a discount on listed prices. Not exactly a firesale like the summer, but this is the dip. sales will pick up in the spring as people don't like moving in the winter.
Thanks for clickiiiiiing!!!
Thanks Brandy!!!
Gil Gunderson finally made the MM show!!! "Oh, well, looks like we got a Backout Betty on our hands. But watch ol' Gil take her from furious to curious. Now, ma'am, you say you can't wait, and you're right. With interest rates climbing and choice properties in the Kingsbridge School District drying up..." Shaun Cathcart could learn a thing or 2 from ol' Gil
Hey GenX,
LOLOL - Yes!! I'll have to remember that for the CREA video :)
@MortgageBrokerLondonOntario I look forward to it! Ol' Gil has some great sales tips!👌 👍
Do u know anything about real-estate in northern ontario?
Hey agatha,
Not especially (unfortunately).
Residential rates up today about 0.20
All these years are going to be great case studies for future housing predictions
We're writing the history books lol :)
@MortgageBrokerLondonOntario I find it absurd that House prices only go back 2005?!
Hey Mark can you recommend a mortgage broker? Im diving in to homeownership here in the GTA
3 Big Banks have increased fixed rates despite BOC rate cuts to avoid too many variable rates and the losses. Rise in fixed rates and lower interest rates will stop buyers. Period.
Hey justs,
Agreed - there is a misconception out there that fixed rates are dropping along with the BoC (even among the industry) and that's just not the case.
"That's enough Gail" 😂😂😂
LOL : ) Thanks John!!
Phil is a real estate Athlete
And so much more!! :)
For a boom we would require much better employment data, as well as GDP and less taxation!! Most available budgets being eaten up by Carbon Taxes and high energy
Hey adam,
Thanks for the comment :) Agreed - the economy isn't exactly thriving right now.
Facts Facts Facts - always spoiling a good fantasy with facts. Phil hates facts!
Lol! Thanks bigsid!! I always appreciate the comment :)
The single most significant variable is simply how much money the banks are allowed to lend out. Zero regulation. Uneducated people. If mortgages qualification had tougher limits prices drop overnight.
Hey mark,
Very, very true - and so much of it is government-guaranteed.
@ almost like it’s planned collusion to steal wealth from the people and move us towards a new slave state.
Come December 15. Only need half the down payment to buy a 1.5M dollar home. Rush to your bank 🏦 lol
Lol fast as you can!
Soper is a salesman and he is talking his book.
Hey althunder,
True enough - but he's also talking on a news network. I don't blame him for talking his book, but would prefer to see some genuine back and forth between him and the 'news' anchor.
"I'll always protect you"
LoL
LOL :) Thanks datruth!
I wonder if there is a way to hold these guys accountable for misleading the public 😢
Nothing of this makes any sense.
😂😂😂 yeah, we are all desperate to get in BEFORE the 25/26 mortgage cliff lol.. okay!
lol :) I would imagine that many are hoping to wait that out - yet its so rarely mentioned.
How dare you use logic. 😂
lol sorry about that :)
The federal govt is pullin out all the stops. Was a story on CBC today about the "red hot housing market" and buyers stampeding in with new enthusiasm.
Is it just me, or is this a real coincidence that the new mortgage rules kick in a week and this story airs on govt controled media today?
Hmmm.
Hey Stormshifter,
Thanks as always for the comment :) There does appear to be some level of coordination doesn't there?
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lol i am in a strong position to buy and i aint buying shit, not at these crazy prices and the chaos with Trump and Trudeau.
Hey Squarish,
Thanks for the comment :) I think a lot of people are in the same boat - the markets (and buyers in general) don't like uncertainty.
😅
Thanks homes!!
lol
Always the TV " Experts" thier never wrong bahahahahaha The markets are so overwhelmingly over priced a highschool kid could see it.
Hey MrJones,
Agreed - one would think the income-debt ratios would be the tip off - but apparently not.
Mark, RE is taking off and you're going to leave people behind. On condo sales/price, you may be right, but anything with a square feet of backyard is taking off especially in any half desirable neighbourhood around GTA. I follow this channel closely to educate myself. Please do analysis based on both side of coins.
Hi daniel,
Thanks for the comment :) I'm not sure what you mean - I don't think I pushed a bias towards one way or the other - just looking at the data. Detached sales were up marginally more than condos - so which part TRREB's data do you think I'm missing?