What if Ukraine Loses?”. Carl Bildt, Yehor Cherniev, Niall Ferguson, Valerii Pekar
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 16 ม.ค. 2024
- "On 16 Jan 2024, Victor Pinchuk Foundation hosted “What if Ukraine Loses?” discussion during the WEF in Davos (Switzerland). The event was held as a part of the Deciding Your Tomorrow project, organized by Victor Pinchuk Foundation and PinchukArtCentre in cooperation with the Office of the President of Ukraine. The panel explored scenarios for the future of Ukraine and its allies in the fight against Russia. Global political leaders, thinkers and activists discuss key aspects of Ukrainians’ defense of life and freedom and it offers a chance to revisit what is at stake in Ukraine.
Among the participants of the discussion were:
- Niall Ferguson, Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution at Stanford University;
- Yehor Cherniev, Ukrainian MP, Chairman of the Ukrainian delegation to the NATOby PA; с
- Lesia Vasylenko, Ukrainian MP; Valerii Pekar, Co-Founder, Nova Kraina.
Former Prime Minister of Sweden and YES Board Member Carl Bild moderated the event.
#DecidingYourTomorrow #WEF2024
🔵 Facebook Victor Pinchuk Foundation: / victorpinchukfoundation
🟡 Instagram YES: / yes_ukraine
🟡 Facebook YES: / yaltaeuropeanstrategy
🟡Twitter YES: / yes_ukraine "
These people are delusional. High on self lies
They are all running different agendas.
None of which are remotely connected to the truth.
They need to be able to love temselves😂😂😂
Those cronies are just interested in profits for US military-industrial complex - so they are pushing for more military spending in EU - disgusting...
We have huge inflation, decrease in living standard, but those clowns ask for more money for weapon manufacturing corporations.
ye not sure how they are even allowed to speak.
Putin has beaten all of them and Russia is becoming richer and stronger in the process.
This people are clowns 🤡
A lot of nonsense. It is tragic to see Ukraine sacrificed 😢. It breaks my heart.
Dont feel sorry for Ukraine - they are fascists. .
Delusional indeed, and they are sitting there and saying sacrifice us, sacrifice us!
No it doesn't break your heart. You're a concern trolling putinist.
You are absolutely right!
@@jesan733All that happens when you personalise a debate with ad-hominems, is you stir up the emotions.
Emotions cloud thinking.
Russians, in this conflict, are pretty cold and calculationg.
So with your childish personal attacks, you are helping to confuse the people you want to win.
And all this because of the arrogance of Nato expansion
All this because of the arrogance of Russian expansion
So you don't think democracy and stability should expand?
@@TWFydGlu you must still wear a Covid mask. 😂
@@jesan733 not if it threatens nuclear war. Fcking idiots
@@mikeutube7888 Never did, except on flights where mandated.
Hang on a bloody minute, how can Ukraine be losing when Ursula told us that Russia was scavenging microchips from washing machines for missiles due to the sanctions ?
Because of the mass of old soviet weapons.
Ursula could be wrong. It can happen.
Russia has placed multi-functional microchips into washing machines in first place.
On top very Russian washing machine can be used as a mortar too.
Sorry, haven’t you been listening? The young lady on the panel said the Ukraine has won. So there you are and don’t anyone dare to contradict her
@@evifiouri4712the double-think of that panel is unbelievable, I listened to their discussion while driving and enjoyed it immensely
I listened to a discussion on my local pub, and it was much better than this. The guys in my pub asked a hell of a lot more intelligent questions than these folks.
yes and then you woke up sweating
Kindergardens are more on spot then theese clowns.....
@@gior987 .. I don't drink. One of the guys asked me this question: You tell me that we asked Ukraine & Georgia to join NATO while Ukraine had written neutrality into their constitution. Why did we do that? I mean, if a country has neutrality in their constitution, is that not a provocation? I answered him; No. It is like Sweden. They had a standing invitation to join, and they were neutral. "Yes", he replied, "but it was never in their constitution". You see. The people in the pubs are not dumb.
@@modernvikingnorway .. 100%. It scares the living bejesus out of me thinking that we are governed by such morons.
@@oddvardmyrnes9040 Seems like nobody in dresses has left their confirmation. A man gotta take care of him selves and family up north...Kvalmende daglige nyheter...
EU is like the Collapse of the Ottoman empire
You'll be waiting several hundred years to find out if there's a collapse in that case.
I doubt the Ottoman empire was a CIA invention like the EU is, though.
Such a gathering of ignoramus people!! Amazing how they think ..........exactly opposite of how reality is.
They are "reality benders"; professional experts in portraying reality as per their purposes. So if you think they are lost in some desillusion... They are well aware of reality, but play scenes to convince as many as possible of their portrayed reality. The worst kind - those who genuinely understand but have goals to fulfil that require diverting people away from truth.
Ukraine is the only country in history that keeps losing territory but is constantly winning.
They are winning so much, that they are tired of winning!
Over the last year, only about 0,3% of Ukrainian territory changed hands. So, for quite some time, no side has made any major gains. Since March 2022 however, Ukraine has taken back about 50% of the territories occupied by Russia at the start of the war.
So, to say that Ukraine "keeps losing territory" is factually incorrect.
😂😂😂
@@semipalatinsk1 Ukraine lost 20% of its territory to Russia. What the hell are you saying there with 0.3%?
@@trashfeeddpyou don't know how to stop illegals but talking about Ukrainians. Sofa person
9:30 So, Ukraine not being totally defeated means Ukraine has won. That's funny
Ukraine has won with respect to the fact that the Russians failed and were unsuccessful in achieving the goals and objectives that they had intended accomplishing in a time period of 3 days to a month, following the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine, on the 24 February 2022. The Russian 10 day WAR {"SMO"} was unsuccessful and remains so, now being into its 700th day. So much for being the "2nd strongest military in the world".
The Russian failure is juxtaposed against all the advantages that the Russians had established for themselves. They had loaded the Russian and Belarusian Northern and Eastern borders of Ukraine with military personnel and hardware on the pretext of military exercises. The Russians had the advantage of working from their own and friendly Belarusian territory for protected air-support and land-based resupply and support.
We may legitimately consider that the Russians have been defeated by virtue of their withdrawals, retreats and routs from Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv and Kherson. The Russians, in the early stages of their invasion and offensive in 2022, held as much as 28% of Ukraine's internationally recognised territory. They now hold less than 17% and are clinging to what they have.
All of this despite the fact that Ukraine, during 2022, only had old soviet style weapons {what was left after russia militarily emasculated Ukraine between 1991 and 1997}, with civilians using Molotov-cocktails, less than a quarter of Russia's military hardware and equipment, a significantly weaker airforce with substantially fewer aircraft and no navy assets.
What the Russians have effectively accomplished is to display their relative weakness and the fragility of their military structure, in terms of both their human resources and hardware. So much so that India, among others have cancelled orders of military hardware from Russia.
@@PNH-sf4jz Yeah.. might just be a wording issue. "Has won", means the winning has already happened. Done and dusted. While, sorry to say the war is still going on! Nobody has won or lost yet, the fight is still going on.
@@PNH-sf4jz Regarding Russia's intentions, we don't really know that. Russia communicates strategically, that means that not everything they say is true! Same for the west. Parties say what benefits them, not necessarily what is true.
My thought about the kiev train of vehicles is that they hoped Ukraine would surrender without blood being spilled. When Ukraine decided to fight and mobilise, those kiev forces were quickly retreated. I think that is all that was.
@@PNH-sf4jz So, when Russia realised Ukraine would not surrender and was being pushed by the west to fight a ground war, everything changed. Forces were retreated to areas that were fully controlled and the slow and extremely bloody "crawling" war started. And yes, that crawling war is still going on. It could go on for another 10 years! Let's hope not.
All this debate is about war not peace!
You all thought it would be so easy...Russian Federation collapses under sanctions and you carve it up like you did to Yugoslavia into manageable pieces. However you were wrong because your always wrong !
I guess they were deluded by their NGO-s in Russia, for their money reporting them just exactly what they wanted to hear - Putin's regime is weak, Russia's economy can produce nothing etc. It's very unclever when the people who make major decisions start to base them on their own mainstream media talking points and their own propagandist NGO-s.
In the land of the witless, you would be king!
BRAVO ¡
That's looking a bit more likely in the UK and the US. Scotland is going to try for another referendum. And maybe Northern Ireland too.
Putin thought he could take Kiev in 3 days and he failed miserably. Slava Ukraini 🇬🇧🇺🇦
I cannot believe this discussion. Are these people serious?
This is what a conversation looks like when certain truths are not permitted to be spoken.
@@rocketpig1914 Absolutely true. But they know.
These people are dillusional. What do you expect from people who believe that if a man calls himself a girl we need to play along and acquiesce to his dillusion.
the are delusional minions of US
The west is ruled by total idiots.
What?!?! I thought that Ukraine has been winning this conflict since Russia invaded. What happened?? Reality is all of a sudden taken into consideration, it seems…
From the start it was report after report of how how the Russian Army has been destroyed. The Russian economy had totally collapsed. Russia's neighbors, including the Chinese, were about to swoop in and dismember Russia. The reality: The Russian Army absorbed all the blows of the West's best weapons and has not collapsed. On the contrary, it's now stronger than when the war began. Russia economy is growing faster than Western economies. The war has drawn the Russians and Chinese closer together. If the 'West' had any sense they'd cut their losses and negotiate some settlement. Instead they're going to double down and lose it all.
the russians and their unstopable shovels proven too much to handle
Main Stream Media has kept giving the impression of Ukraine winning over a weak Russia, but it wasn't true at any point.
The panellists are still in denial.
@@yuglesstube Indeed, all this talk about how Ukraine can win this war if only they had the weapons and ammo is total BS, Ukraine doesn't have the manpower, talk about a panel living in absolute fantasy land. It's this type of ignorance that has gotten Ukraine where it is today, living off hope with zero rationale or logic.
The world would be free if the US was not pursuing a bellicose policy towards countries of the world. Ask Germans what Americans did about the Nord Stream pipeline.
Before the US coup of 2014, Ukraine had a bright future as a neutral country. Then NATO snakeoilsalesmen destroyed them. Very sad😢
You deserve a wanderfull future in Nord Koreea ,
That is true, no matter how the wars goes in the future, Ukraine has lost a whole young generation of people during the war, without enough man how would a country grows and prosper.
It would NOT have been neutral.
It would have been managed by Russia, who was already pulling dirty tricks on it, pressuring it to do Putin’s bidding - like the mafia does. Eventually it would have become like Belarus.
True. One day the full story will become known, and, like Bush and Blair, Biden and Bojo will stand condemned.
Russia would have kept Crimea, and the civil war would have ended. Ukraine would ve Neutral, like Austrai. And that's it.
Now.look at this total shitstorm.
You're spreading lies. The coup had to do with EU and it was something about economy and quality of life and human rights - those couldn't be found in Russia. The future that you speak of was Ukraine returning to be puppet for Russia, much like Belarus is now. I don't think that could be called bright. For your information, in 2014, Ukraine had neutrality in the constitution. The neutrality was voted out by Ukraine's Parliament only in december 2014 as a consequence of Putin annexing Crimea and of the war that Putin started in Donbas.
The fact that you got so many likes(thumbs up) is proof of how many people know little about this fact but they still give support to a lie.
The Ukies are delusional. They have already lost. Its over.
I've worked with the Ukrainian companies as a business consultant. They are the best at the art of delusioning themselves, and more importantly, their masters and investors. Part of national character.
Who invented this war in the first place? Watch Prof Mearsheimer so you will get much more understanding
Merschheimer is Putin's agent of influence. His words are pure propaganda.
And why does it look like the world at the moment is only looking for a reason for war? Everybody talks about war and where to fight - God, we are so stupid it hurts!
@@TheKitbonn yes well sadly there is a large proportion of the western population that thinks for some reason this about saving democracy. I agree they are stupid
Mearsheimer extensively went through this story here: th-cam.com/video/dmwgs2uiqcM/w-d-xo.html
Ukraine has already Lost the war, has Lost his youth and has Lost millions of citizens, who live abroad
Remember the term "pyrrhic victory" ?
Why millions of Ukrainian do not stand and fight, but abandon Ukraine? Sounds to me millions of Ukrainians do not love Ukraine.
And you have lost your mind a long time ago. Your inferiority complex is justified.
These "analysers" is so far from reality that they are actually funny :D
Well I've listened to Neil and he does not get my vote just even to talk of Russian imperialism is it deeply stupid misunderstanding of reality
Russia doesn't have borders - according to Putinocchio. What gives?
I am disappointed in Niall because he knows he is spouting propaganda. He knows full well that the circle of lies is ideological in nature. But he doesnt realise enough how much that actually accelerates the west's demise.
Bethany profiting from the decline of the West to which he contributes @@egoncorneliscallery9535 that is exactly right, wxcept ...does he care? Not while he profits personally.
I would say that he is profiting personlly from the demise of the West and doesnt care that his words contribute to the decline.
So as you get paid, eh Niall.
2023 Ukraine counteroffensive failed but it would succeed in 2024? Come on now
in 2025 when the Russians fall asleep
Because the 2024 Ukraine counteroffensive forces will be all women... and WOMYN POWER!!!
Total madness.
What planet are you living on?
You will have to fight your own wars? That would be devastating...
I remember that typical phrase was that Russia has already lost - so after 2 years we arrived at the topic - "what if Ukraine loses". This is all a tragic-comedy that costed so many Ukrainian lives and will cost much more before they wake up realizing that Russia can not be defeated as it has never been, while West will certainly not sacrifice its own lives there...I really believe that the West will never let Russia win as long as there are Ukrainians ready to die.
Just remind you Russia lost against Japan 1905! It was very blody war then! And against the mongols long time ago several times!
It was indeed amazing to see past year how the majority of western public were quite convinced Russia has lost the war or at least the military victory of Ukraine is firmly secured. I asked some of my friends for the basis of their belief, I learned that it's the high morale of the Ukrainians who fight for their country, therefore they can't lose per se . So the sense of moral victory projected itself on military success. Other words, you can't loose if you're on the right side. Oh, yes... is it?
@@user-rx1qm2qg2i of minor importance and can not be compared with fight for vital territories - such Ukraine
@@matveyc4614 when speaking about morale, all would escape without locked borders - we saw how it looked alike at the beginning...
@@user-rx1qm2qg2iremind me again, who today has sovereignty over Sakhalin island? Who won the battle of Khalkhin Gol?
They are all singing from the same hymn Sheet😂😂😂😂 great
Not if….when Ukraine loses the war.
it already did
Russia needs North Korea just to lose as badly against a much smaller country. The ruble is a junk currency. Their economy is on a complete war footing. They are selling their oil at break even or a loss. Putin imprisons anyone who criticises him.Large parts of his country have no inside toilets. They lost the war 10 years ago. They will need decades to recover.
The Hoover institute says it all. I watched this Scottish guy for a long time , but since he joined the Hoover institute the money has gone to his head , and he is not ashamed to waffle total Proper Ganda.
Hoover is a vacuum cleaner brand.
Peter Robinson. Long record of w
Interesting interviews, but these days not easy to be a journalist, they are forced into rhe role of activist, or cancelled. Niall is an example alas.
It sucks up all the failed so called professors that couldn't get a real job in life.@@user-uk3nx8cn4u
31:13 Ukraine has done extraordinarily well, and Russia has done exceedingly badly... yet Russia still holds an area of Ukraine the size of Austria, and Ukraine's counteroffensive was comprehensively defeated.
Actually both sides are fierce fighters and the Ukraine was equipped and trained by NATO well before the invasion. Russia performed below expectations in the beginning, as they tend to do. But they learn fast, as they tend to do. More generally just like you I expect serious debaters not to argue like soccer fans.
@@andy99ish Good analysis. Both Ukrainians and Russians have fought hard in a hellish war and both have made mistakes. I just wish this would end to save the lives of people's fathers and sons.
@@CountDuckEgg Good conclusion
Tell us again how well Ukraine performednow that they are sporting women on the fronts up in Kupiansk direction
What isn't considered in the west are the horrific Ukraine losses.
= what if
IF???
Let me clear it up.
On the one hand, Russia is a country that knows how to fight and knows what it takes ( Polish invasion, Hitler, Napoleon, Karl 12, the Crimean War, etc.), a country with 150+ million people, a friendly industrial giant called China by its eastern border, and a country with 5000+ nuclear heads.
On the other hand, Ukraine just became independent only 30+ ears ago and already lost 2/3 of the population; it was 52 million in 1991, and now it is less than 20 million.!!
country with a totally decimated economy and a total lack of military industrial capacity.
and IT IS STILL DEBATABLE, IF???
common , guys! you are better than this.
alx
ps
I have more belief in the explanation of why building #7 on 9*11 collapsed in free fall without being hit.
These people are not on Planet Earth or high on Zelensky White Rock.
Good that you gave these geniuses the chance to outline what they see as the end of the known world should Ukraine lose the war. Lets see what happens when Ukraine actually loses the war in April. Then, please bring these enlightened souls to ask them what really transpires going forward.
Telling that the US rep is repeating liberal Democrat talking points. Telling they did not invite the Heritage Foundation's rep attending the forum to participate in this panel.
One of the genius doesn’t even know who is in BRICS 😂
Come back in April when Ukraine still has not lost.
Didn't dictator Zelensky pass a law that made loosing illegal. Anyone with a clue knew that Ukraine never had a chance of winning. I am just surprised these stuffed shirts are still lieing to themselves and their complete lack of working knowledge of geopolitics and let the Biden administration lead Europe into economic suicide.
Ukraine losing by April? Clown.
OK Niall talks about Chinese economic support to Russia but what about the support that India has provided ? What about the indirect support that the EU provides by buying refined petroleum products from India creates from Russian oil, direct purchases of Russia LNG or US purchases of Russian fertilizer and uranium ? blah blah blah.
China is not "supporting Russia", China is just neutral and trading with Russia normally. Not being an US puppet does not mean supporting Russia.
Do you support the Mafia when you buy from it? Or are you simply not a police puppet?
@@jesan733 and who’s the police in this case 🤔
@@joeyransford9078 that's less important than who the Mafia are.
The EU is buying Oil directly from Russia.
US is buying Uranium from Russia.
The EU buy more from Russia in one day than India buys in a month.
th-cam.com/video/j2EdQD_Eag0/w-d-xo.html
Russia Ukraine Jaishankar on oil purchases
38:08 "Russia has problems with its economy and production."
Of course, in the real world, the Russian economy is growing at more than 3%, and Russia is outproducing NATO.
Do these people knowingly lie, or are they are just clueless?
I suspect they are captured by their own propaganda.
I suspect they think they are captured by their own propaganda.
I think its both.
@@amunra5330 I think so too.
And in the real world, two Russian oil supply depots are burning, multiple Russians are without heat and water as pipes break, Russian planes are skidding off runways or engine fires are breaking out in flight. Yea, Russia's economy is humming along just fine.
There is reality & then there is this ….
We need a political system like the Switzerland where the people have the say not the politicians, and they are natural
Are you living in the Russian totalitarian dictatorship?
Switzerland has 8.5 million people. US has 330 million. I'm just wondering how you visualize these votes taking place.
@@sifridbassoon On a phone app
Locals didnt vote for the breach of neutrality and direct support of Ukraine
or china
they lost before the war even started
“NATO as a power of certainty” what an idiotic statement
Everything about this is idiotic.
Not “IF”, but “WHEN”.
In your dream.
13:13 “Uh, we are defending Europe, we are defending you, uh, the majority of people don’t know what we’re talking about.” lol.
What if? LOL Ukraine is losing now... is not if.. its a reality
Simply a group of smokers, don't know what they are talking about.
If Ukraine loses, countries will not be scared of the US and its sanctions. Oil producers will sell oil in any currency of its choice. In general there will be more freedom in the world, more wealth outside of the US therefore more poverty in the US.
Ukraine has already lost since what Russia wanted to achieve is mostly done.the sanctions have failed to have any significant impact on the Russian economy which is chugging along. The second cold war will be different because it will the west versus the rest of the world. It was very unfortunate that Biden and his team chose to fight an unwinnable war. I don't blame the US but the present administration for bungling in everything.
US can still be rich but you can’t continue in a system where all the wealth generated by the economy goes to the shareholder class.
BS
Would the defeat of Ukraine spell the end of NATO?
Of course not. .. the two are not connected. A nuclear power cannot be defeated militarily. Biden is an ass.
What if?- it will loose. It's already lost.
The emphasis by panelists of US support is a bit confusing to me. Isn't the European Union the most exposed to this Russian aggression? Or is the European Union of the opinion that Ukraine isn't worth the effort/ cost of supplying them with what is required? Or is it that the European Union incapable of supplying Ukraine with the means of defense?
THeir narrate has ceased to make sense about 18 months ago. Now you see a twisted pretzel logic that is laughable if not for the suffering.
In Greece more than 50% support Russia less than 10% Ucr..the government gave weapons to Ucr..the people of Greece never wanted to do such a thing
@@lnpsych1the Greece is a disgrace to the democratic world, they should educate themselves on what real western democracy is
Thanks for that info. @@lnpsych1
Are there deep cultural links between Greece and Russia? Looking for why the support for Russia over Ukraine in Greece? Thanks @@lnpsych1
These three Ukrainians on the panel are living in a fantasy world. Ukraine is losing and will lose soon. There are at least 4 TH-cam channels that give daily updates to the situation on the ground in Ukraine. We are seeing daily small Russian advances.
sure bruh
It was unbelievable a year ago and they still push this line today.
@@denismolander you know it true
@@NzTingsThey know, but deny to cope
Alas a lot of ukrainian friendly comment is from ukrainian people with nothing to do. While waiting for the war to end, these draft dodgers and deserters sit out in cafes in poland and romania and bulgaria,at mummy and daddy's expense, and write this uninformed stuff.
My message. Help your country Either by getting back on the front line or else finding out what's going on getting a proper understanding so you can do a proper analysis and campaign for peace and primarily get rid of your clown actor leader ... of all the corrupt oligarchs in Ukraine, he is amongst the most corrupt.
Poor young soldiers. Avoidable war.
Yes, Putin could have avoided it.
@@semipalatinsk1 for 8 years US and NATO prepared and armed ukranian army to start offensive operations to take Donbass from the separatists and Crimea from Russians. The week of the invasion Ukraine was moments away from starting those operations. Are you not told this in school? Basic military logic says preempt. Putin could have avoided this were it not for 2014 and did spend 8 years avoiding it. If you’re going to write something down here come prepared. Take a seat.
If you can't see that NATO expansion was the primary cause of this war, you should review the history of the Soviet Union, its collapse and the aftermath.
The 2008 Bucharest Conference. The 2014 Maidan. The ensuing civil war. US arms deliveries and training, including through israeli involvement. The move towards admitting Ukraine into NATO under Biden. Russia's warnings and the Minsk Accords. The Istanbul negotiations. The failure of that process.
Totally avoidable.
But the global weapons trade! Think of the global weapons trade! 🤯😩
@@semipalatinsk1 Zelensky could have avoided it by taking Russia's peace deal in March 2022, look at his position now, far worse. That's the outcome of listening to the US, you lose.
1st speaker said Ukraine cannot afford to lose. 2nd speaker said Ukraine has already won. I think I will stop here because the reality is, Russian has already won. They should talk about what should the US/NATO gonna do now? Send NATO troops in to defend Ukraine? This is way pass talking...because the truth will always come out.... most likely in a couple of months and Ukraine will has no choice but to surrender unconditionally...
bitter putin bootlicker ☝😆
I was shocked at this discussion. I did detect a whiney desperation, which to me indicates that they know.
This peoples children must bee in front lines of Avdiivka since they are so vocal on defense.
They all want a piece of Ukrainian land.
But ,will never happens They just don't know well Ukrainians spirit.
Where Ukrainian steps, nothing for a jew left or to do. Means, what they owns , nobody could have it.
Two weeks since your post and avdiivka is just about kaput, but Ukraine already won!
@@gumby2241 Tell me something smart..
This article should not be [WHAT IF UKRAINE LOSES], a better one would be What will happen to Ukraine when the Russians win.
Forget about what we used to think....we need to focus on where we want to go and how much we want to get there. In the meantime, the suffering just goes on and on....We can't pat ourselves on the back now, let's get to victory....only then can we celebrate.
Exactly…
The question should have been asked is how does Ukraine handle its defeat and live in peace.
It's too late for that. Why should Russia ask anybody about the plight of the territory of the former ukrain? Russia is the rightful owner of the assets of the former ussr.
The people of Ukraine, in and of themselves, doesn't matter at all to these guys, their real interest was simply using Ukraine as a battering ram to attack or intimidate Russia. Just like with Blinken, Victoria Nuland, Jake Sullivan and other American neo-cons, their buddies.
The main guy missing at the table here is Jens Stoltenberg, but he has never really pretended to be an "intellectual". 😃
@@user-uk3nx8cn4u, Russia is losing.
It is nonsens. Russnazia like German Nazi cant live in peace🪆🎭
@@terjeoseberg990 Russia's economy is stronger than most G7 nations, there was no regime change in Russia and the Ukraine counter offensive made zero net territory gains, how is it possibly losing.
you see that 85,000 sq kms of Ukraine land that Russia is sitting on, Ukraine are never getting that back....
I didn’t hear one valid argument for continued financial aid, indeed, it should never have been initiated in 2014. It’s a civil war we should not be involved in.
How much i Putin paying you?
Point is it would not be initiated if west wasn't involved in it from the before 2014
@@klbik33 I wouldn’t mind so much if it was a decent government in Kyiv, but they are the worst kind of corrupt mafia you could imagine. They are literally selling their peoples lives for cash, just to weaken a geopolitical adversary in Russia. Shameful.
Russia tried its best to solve this diplomatically. Ukraine failed to adhere to neutrality and underestimated what Russia was prepared to do to stop NATO expansion. The flashpoints for future war have increased because the Ukraine war has needlessly turned Russia into a foe. A victory for Russia would be to ensure long-term security by turning Ukraine into a dysfunctional rump state. We have the Black Sea, Arctic Ocean, Moldova, Belarus (potential new color revolution), Finland + Sweden joining NATO that have increased rather than decreased the opportunities for war. This is a consequence of relying on unilateral force instead of trying to maintain the balance of power. This is the West's fault.
I thought it was to denazify ukraine? That’s what dear leader said? So who is lying? 🤥 🤥 🤥
@@Anthonythumb Every side does its propaganda. And yes, Ukrainian nationalism is ugly.
@@andy99ishand Russian imperialism is even uglier. Hence all it’s neighbors begging to join NATO.
@@Anthonythumb Denazify Ukraine was/is only one of the objectives, because of the threat posed by a neo-Nazi informed Kiev regime to the large Russian speaking/ethnic Russian population particularly in eastern and southern Ukraine. The other big issue for Russia has been that the US and NATO, with strong EU complicity has been using Ukraine as a tool to undermine Russia's own independence and security.
@@galanis38 straight out of the Kremlin propaganda playbook 🫢 Russia has been interfering in Ukraine for centuries. Poisoning politicians, installing rebel groups. This is just the latest time. Nothing to do with NATO. Nothing to do with “Nazis” the country with the biggest nazi problem on the planet is Russia
One talking about preventing further crimes.....for the moment i thought they speake about crimes in Gaza strip.......
Further i saw it was about Ukraine so i turned off.....
watched this for 3 minutes.
If Niall is being serious when he talks and he hasn't been paid to blablabla.... wow... this historian needs to learn some history.
the nonsense he talks is so blatant it's almost he is doing a 'help me' sigh
you did a big mistake ! Is kind of amusament to listn to the childish way to describe how clean is the shit ukraina is in.
I am SO disappointed in him. He is not speaking as a historian but as a proper US hawk. He knows he is supporting a lie but does so willingly. THAT is his tragedy.
They are blowing gas out of their asses
Have they really debated the question?
they outlined their plans for after THEY win though
than was very educational
Push the US from EU
Didn't know that US was ever part of EU
Europe desperately needs its own freedom but this is a 10 to 20 year project just think about all that is necessary.
De Gaul, Mitterand and Chirac were the last European leaders to fight for their freedom.
The UK is led by a string of pom pom girls
nice to have this for the future.
Ukraine has already lost and was always going to when it stupidly moved away from neutrality and was persuaded that it should join NATO.
The title should be .. what happens when Ukraine collapses. .??
That one guy literally said “3 point is the most unstable” (3 superpowers vs 2)
What buffoonery is this.
if ukraine loses it will be simply as 2013 just some territories will be russian.
And Ukraine lived quite well and peaceful. Only Banderites complained.
The first question I would ask: Who is Victor Pinchuk, what is his record, what is his relationship with Zelensky and is he in a position to fund self interested Polemics, sometimes also known, in its lower form, as Propaganda?
The answer is in Wikipedia. Also, pay attention who his wife is.
Why would you ask that question? What's the point? Don't you agree that the Russian aggression needs to be defeated?
@@jesan733 sure warrior, go to Ukraine and help them. WARPIG
They probably don't agree because they are Russians.@@jesan733
@@jesan733 the unprovoked aggression by Russia . It’s a bit like the aggression of the Vietcong during the 60’s the west we’re bombarded by propaganda that the communists were going to March through the pacific to Sydney. I’m still waiting for the Commies to arrive in Sydney. Now we are told that when Putin wins in Ukraine he will go all the way to London. Who the hell would want to invade Britain anyways. Putins friends are east and in Africa.
So in other words, they're just saying that they're fighting for their pride and greed. Wow.
What if? They've got no hope.
*NOT ONE SINGLE WORD ABOUT "PEACE" IN THIS WHOLE EPISODE OF "FANTASY ISLAND"...*
That's just blatantly false. Unwise to make assertions like that without listening right through. You made a fool of yourself. The 5 people who up-ticked you too, were it not for their anonymity.
@@davidwright5094 *WHEN YOU WATCH 2/3S OF A VIDEO AND THE ENTIRE FOCUS IS ON WAR AND PREPARATIONS FOR WARS BASED ON UNFOUNDED INUENDOS ABOUT HOW THE CRAZY RUSSIANS WANT TO CONQUER THE WORLD....SMH*
These ppl are delusional. They need to venture outside of their bubbles.
Niall Ferguson has been invited to side with the powers-that-be. 😂
and he is visibly uncomfortable
Court jester historian
I thought there were going to be academics here...
8:14 yikes, lady. i’m all set on kool-aid, thanks
That's a conversation that should have taken place 2 years ago.
I would rephrase this as what happens when Ukraine loses? The first point in the answer is that the myth of Western Superiority will be fatally undermined and that will be a huge psychic shock to the West especially the Americans with their self image of being the World leader etc. The second point is Europe especially will be SOL as regards their economy cause they will have lost access to the cheap raw materials and resources that allowed Germany especially to maintain its industrial / export economic model.
Unfortunately, Germany will be the big loser here over 5-10 years. Of course, Ukraine is the worst shape, probably will cease to exist as a nation unless he can make it to the bargaining table soon. It could be over by summer.
The US hasn't defeated anyone really since WW2. Korea a stalemate. Vietnam a loss. Iraq was a disaster. Lost to the Taliban. Have not defeated Al Q, ISIS, Al Shabab, etc.. Has not been able to conduct regime change in Syria, Iran, North Korea or Russia.
Now the US has started a second Cold War with Russia and they have created a alliance to fight the West.
Fools have been in charge of US foriegn policy for the last 31 years in the US. And the US will pay dearly now.
It's not about West vs East. It's about humans vs dictators.
Someone reported my comment. I wonder who it was?
Valerii Pekar's comment at 15:22 regarding reducing the number of major powers from 3 to 2 so that the world is less risky is the realist's take on geopolitics. The end goal is, of course, that your side is the sole hegemon (in this case it's the USA) going back to unipolarity. And I appreciate the candor at 16:21 that Ukraine-Russian war is a venue to test western "warfare weapons on the battleground" (in his words).
I found his comments to be the most abhorrent and irrelevant to the question…but yeah, also the most honest
Actually not unrealistic at this point. The US is losing relevance at a breathtaking speed right now and the EU is geopolitically completely dead already. So it's either just China or China + Russia who will be the dominating powers in the future.
@@alexandernater6284 🤣 What rock do you live under? The US economy is so far ahead of others. They completly dominate every new exciting market, now AI.
It's over, there should be peace, if anyone can live with that.
IF? They already lost!
This reminds me of locker room talk after the team suffered a major defeat.
*it's really funny to watch how they fool themselves*
( like Ukraine is somehow Independent now - and Ukraine have no money to pay even water bill itself : )
edit: sure - Russia have to lose - but - you have to ask them nicely 🥴😵😵💫
> Russia was not able to conduct any successful offensive after March 2022
Hold on - what about Mariupol in May 2022, Backmut 2023, etc
Even a win is a loss for Ukraine.
How could anyone believe that Russia would lose in this conflict?
It is scary to see the leaders in the EU and NATO are so out of touch with reality.
If they had got more help with weapons in time they had already won the war and with they I mean the Ukrainians. Of course they lose the war without help and therefore Russia was such a coward nation, because they always invade and attack weaker countries.
In case you don’t know, Ukraine has already lost!
Russia is fucked.
@TeArk I don't see it. They seem to be doing fine.
It's Ukraine, the EU and the US that appear to be struggling.
@@yuglesstube I agree, that's how it is right now. But it's not the end. Truth must prevail or humanity will perish, there is no other way. But it may take time and many more casualties. It breaks my heart to know about all those war victims in Ukraine, even young children. Russian cruelty knows no limits.
@@TeArk I think you’ve been living in a very brainwashed world where you’re been fooled like a 2 year old and you can’t do anything about it. Wake up! Don’t be foolish forever, humanity would not forgive you. Russia would cleanse all this evil as much as it can until you all repent.
@TeArk it is tragic. It was also avoidable. It is not that I support this war. I do not. The fact is that Russia was seriously provoked by NATO. The Russians did warn us. And we, believing them to be impotent against us, we disregarded their stern warnings, repeatedly made.
This is a lesson in Realpolitik, and leaves us with a bloody nose.
It is astonishing that the people in the West who are handsomely paid not to fuck this stuff up, instead totally misunderestimated Russia.
Western arrogance and Hubris.
To use in one sentence .. ukrain and democracy ..is insane in itself...nato west needs to back off.. to their own borders ...a whole special operation could have been avoidable if ukrain with its western partners would oblige to agreements...instead of pick and choose to own likeness
It is not the question WHY the question is WHEN.
"Making sure that Russia is unable to attack either Ukraine or any other country." - And what about insuring that US/NATO is unable to attack any other country? Not Syria, not Libya, not Iraq, not Afghanistan, not Yugoslavia and so on and so forth.
Exactly. I defy anyone to provide on the record evidence that Russia is looking for Imperial expansion the truth is it is seeking to defend its borders under great provocation from NATO
Funny thing is, without going into how wrong you are on most of those examples, NONE of those countries were ANNEXED by NATO.
@@mengelmoesNL NATO is America's North Atlantic army
@@petercape2331 Derp.
@@mengelmoesNL So the US army is no longer in Iraq or Syria today then, even though the local governments have begged them to leave. Why are they there, for the same reason they invaded in the first place, stealing their oil.
There was a lion, which was able to go anywhere and grab whatever it wanted without redress, and considered itself the most powerful beast.
There was a wolf, who patrolled its territory vigorously in order to maintain his hunting ground, even if the lion could encroach on it occasionally, but he would fight to the end for his domain.
And there was an ant, who lived in a huge colony with millions of others who cooperated for the good of the anthill and never questioned his social situation.
One day they went to war. One wanted power, one wanted territory and one wanted social cohesion.
Who do you think will win?
Yeah the US is the Lion and Europe the Ant
The wolf obviously. The wolf is Russia and China. The US is the lion. There are no ant nations. That is a fantasy.
Russia.
Sorry, it's a good analogy that doesn't apply to this scenario right now. Sadly.
The ants (Ukraine and the West allies) will win, yes. But I fear NOT through being social, united and working like one body like ants do.
The "ant" we are dealing with in reality is not able to cooperate as one unit, such as real ants. There is NO communication worth the name about who will supply what and when.
For the moment AMMUNITION is URGENT. More urgent than urgent. Does ANYONE know what's done about it? Who has increased the production to a level that can solve this problem NOW, during the rest of the war, and later? I know that some countries HAVE increased their production, but I have also heard voices (lately!!?) saying "It takes a long time to prepare for an increased production. For god's sake, the war has been going on for almost two years now! "We'll stay as long as it takes" were said by the leaders of several countries, others nodded in agreement.
There is no anthill where one bunch of ants after each other are backing off. Which is exactly what we are watching right now.
We must shape up.
All people who believe in Ukraine have at least some understanding of what it means if Ukraine loses. It becomes more clear if we turn that sentence around: 'what it means if Russia wins'. That gives another point of view. I don't think many people look at it from that perspective.
For people who don't care about Ukraine, do they see how it would look in the eyes of Russia, China, North Korea, Iran etc etc? It would be crystal clear that the Western world can't unite for more than a short period of time. The West can easily be beaten, now when we know their poorly interaction.
Just mention keeping a face! The loss of respect. EVERYTHING we plan for Russia. While THEY triumph, growing, PUTIN would be stronger than ever. Exactly what we DON'T want. Not even those who don't care about Ukraine. Well, of course there STILL are they who believe cleaning Putin's behind with their mouth is the best way to keep him friendly. That man isn't friendly to anyone when they have done their purpose.
There is NO country that lies, up in your face, so much as Russia. History proves that, and Putin and his team are keeping the traditions alive.
We have to unite our anthill, so it will function as such, to make sure we can end this thing as soon as possible. In my opinion, first for the sake of Ukraine and the Ukrainian people, but also as a firm statement: WE CAN UNITE, AND WE ARE STRONG.
@annabackman3028 Thanks for your considered response.
I must however disagree with its fundamental premise, which is that Ukraine can win. This is impossible, if winning means the return of Crimea and the Donbas.
Russia was always going to keep Crimea, which is Russian anyway. The Donbas civil war could have been negotiated in terms of autonomy. The NATO expansion issue could have been resolved with Neutrality.
Ukraine has lost. It lost at Bakhmut, militarily...But Russia won when the sanctions failed.
Russia has a massive force advantage which grows every day and air superiority.
Ukraine is entirely dependent not just on weapons deliveries, but also cash deliveries. The people are at the end of their endurance and their political system is cracking under the pressure.
The West has lost its grip on the world, and Europe has lost its source of cheap energy.
This is already a catastrophe for the West and Ukraine.
Zelensky has to go and negotiations must begin.
Like it or not, this is the reality.
The Russian Offensive is underway. And it will continue until Russia is sure that these issues are settled once and for all.
If russia is an operator of uncertainty, could you pleass share with us the CERTAINTY points of nato in the lst 50 years? afganistan, iraq, jugoslavia, libia, somalia, siria ...
Ok, to cut long story short - Ukraine is in a big trouble...
It is a very bad faith debate because these silly people have not invited anyone from Russia
They can 'win' only when they are talking to themselves, telling one another what they want to hear.
Sure you would have said the same thing about not inviting Nazis to the debates during WWII
Why would they need to come?
Sometimes you really can't listen to that nonsense what comes out of the mouth of Ukraine s .The best bit is always about Taiwan.
China is already the big winner and clearly their decision about Taiwan doesn't depend on performance of Russian conscripts in Donbass. Same goes with any conflict in Africa or Middle East.
None has any connection to Ukraine war
great watch
Please wake these people up someone. The can hurt themselves while sleepwalking later on...
Ukraine is not "a buffer zone". Buffer zone implies that it is neither left nor right. Neither ally of US nor of Russia. Ukraine in NATO is a frontier, not a buffer zone. Neutral Ukraine is a buffer zone.
The whole notion that Russia somehow needs or is deserving of a neutral "buffer zone" is the core question. Of course, Russia would and will always claim they need this but, objectively, it's nonsense. No country has ever attacked a nuclear power, nor would they ever do so, hence Russia already owns a 100% deterrent against invasion and therefore, in actual fact, needs no buffer zone
My post was about notion that Ukraine in NATO is a buffer, which is nonsense.
As for "no-one ever attacked nuclear power", I have to say that I disagree. War in Chechnya was attack on nuclear power. The US financed Chechnya and supplied Chechens with weapons and intelligence. Attack on country doesn't have to be a direct attack, as for example, attack of the US on Russia would be. The US can use territory of neighbouring country to transfer weapons, to train troops, to organise raids, etc.
There is another aspect of Ukrainian importance for Russia. Ukraine has, or at least had a large population of Russians and Russian speakers. As is the case with the US that declares themselves a protector of Americans where ever they are, the similar situation is with Russia being the protector of Russians, especially in neighbouring countries. Failure of Russian government to protect Russians in Ukraine would be seen as betrayal by population in Russia that would inevitably lead to destabilisation of government in Russia. Allowing the US to use violent illegitimate regime in Kiev to persecute Russians in Ukraine is tantamount to defeat. Thus, allowing Ukraine to get under protective umbrella of the US was never realistic proposition. Ukraine should be neutral if it wants to survive. If violent illegitimate persist in joining NATO, Russia will make sure that no Ukraine remains. And it has nothing to do with the "right" of Ukraine to do what ot wants.
@tonihil The moment you classified the war in Chechnya as an attack on Russia, you lost me. The Soviets created these ethnic disasters through decades of ethnic cleansing, repression and forced relocations, and it's not the fault of the rest of the world when these horrible policies come home to roost. On Russia protecting Russians abroad, as the US does, you first must define who is Russian. It certainly cannot depend on who speaks Russian, as there are dozens of distinct ethnicities that speak Russian, but are not Russian citizens, much as there are millions of Americans who speak Spanish, but that doesn't make them Mexican or Colombian. I appreciate it's an exceedingly complex issue, but it's one of Russia's own creation and nothing will stop the continued fracturing of Russia's satellite states and the trend of them moving away from Moscow's orbit, simply because allying with Russia is a bad bargain, that offers nothing (ask Armenia how well relying on Russia has worked out for them). It started with Eastern Europe in the 90's, then the Balkans, now its Ukraine and Georgia, next will be Belorus, Armenia, and the rest of the Caucasus. Russia and Putin know this and were desperately trying to slow the inevitable by invading Ukraine, which has only served to convince everyone else that distancing from Russia and seeking alliances for protection against attack by Russia is the only viable way forward
@@davidsolsbery9487The moment you classified situation in Balkans as fracturing of Russian sphere of influence, you lost me. It was not fracturing, as some voluntary activity, but direct pressure from US and main satellite Germany. When pressure wasn't sufficient, use of unauthorized violence, i.e. bombing of Yugoslavia commenced.
Your post didn't address the fracturing of US orbit of influence that started by reckless poking of Russia. What looked as omnipotent empire was revealed as not being omnipotent. Russia called the bluff of US in Ukraine. And war in Ukraine is anything but unprovoked aggression on part of Russia. If anything, the US is the one that was aggressive by subverting Ukrainian democracy, overthrowing legitimate government and installing violent client regime. The US destroyed Ukrainian independence by making Ukraine dependant on US.
@tonihil Ah, the Serb has an extremely monocolored view of the exceedingly complex Balkan conflict, what a surprise. We fundamentally disagree on the basics, i.e. that liberal democracy, with all its flaws, imperfections, hypocritical thinking and historic mistakes, is still the system of governance that allows for the most freedom for the most people, and is therefore the model that is worth preserving and worth fighting for, when and where it is adopted, anywhere across the globe. If we disagree on this fundamental argument, which I conclude we do, we will always see every global clash of liberal democracy vs. all other forms of government through entirely different lenses.
8:23 - Ukraine has already won? Huh? She’s as delusional as Zelenskyy. Her definition of victory has been greatly diminished since 2022, when Zelenskyy declared what victory is: restoring Ukraine to its pre-2014 borders. Measured against that war aim, Ukraine has been soundly defeated. The best case outcome now is for them to retain their Black Sea access. But what is land, anyway, without people? Accounting for all the dead soldiers (somewhere between 300K-500K), and the several million civilians who have left and have no intention of returning, Ukraine is all but officially defeated. In fact, this whole panel session is a pointless academic exercise at best. At worst, they’re inhaling each other’s propaganda. It would have been far better if the panel included realists like Chas Freeman, Mearsheimer, and Sachs. Then at least we’d have had an interesting debate instead of this deluded neocon echo chamber.
Carlson tucker is the best he made the world to know the truth with putins interview
The treats to those little country the danger comes from USA and NATO NOT RUSSIA
The rallying spirit of this debate betrays the intention to withdraw support of Ukraine and later lament about with fake remorse by the key supporters.
My question is how many lives in Ukraine are affordable to lose
how many? how many are murdered, tortured and raped in occupied territories? How many children stolen? how many deported to Siberian camps? Should we just give them up???
None.
@@lembergnative7731nonsense
@@lembergnative7731 the answer is YES
You can cancel the word "IF". Anyway, the world will carry on as usual
Why lying without remorse?
All Putin wants is to talk to the West and be treated as a sovereign country which wants to preserve its culture. That is how he started out in 2000. He changed his attitude because he found that most Americans regarded communist Russia as an enemy and a threat. America would not talk to Putin as an equal, with respect.
Russia wants to feel secure. It wants Ukraine to be neutral and act as a buffer state. The whole matter has been handled appallingly by the neocons in DC with their US-hegemonic vision, backed by the military-industrial complex. Nuland and the others created the Ukraine war and now Putin is being demonised. The Ukraine war should never have happened.
Now is the time to talk. It is not the time to think about WW3.
A thousand years of history informs that Russia sees Ukraine as a part of Russia. If a majority of Ukrainians disagree with that narrative, then so be it. A Russian invasion was inevitable, regardless of discourse and disappointments between Russia (previously, USSR) and the so-called West. Common Russian people have nothing to gain by annexing Ukraine. Russian security comes from getting on with its own stuff. NATO has never posed a threat to Russia (despite broken promises). It all comes down to Russian paranoia.
A souvereign country:
a) has its borders respected (no foreign country places their soldiers on its territory without their consent)
b) can choose with whom to be friends and/or allies.
c) no foreign country has the right to change its leadership using military force, even if they do not like said leadership or think it wasn't legitimately elected
d) another country doesn't have the right to militarily intervene, even though they do not like laws/internal policy/foreign policy decisions of the other country.
It should be clear to everyone which of the two countries at war has disregarded the souvereignity of the other. And don't reply with whataboutisms. Of course there are examples in history and even today of countries who have not respected the souvereignity of another country, that's not a justification.
Russia is complaining that some countries don't "like" them. Instead of trying to force others to like you, treat them well, stop threatening them and stop the violence against Ukraine.
That is why Ukraine has never been a sovereign country. It's not just Russia but also Poland, Rumania, Hungary that have legitimate claims on Ukraine. Ukraine is no more a country than Czechoslava was !
I totally agree with every word but would add that Russia is not really a communist state anymore
It goes to opposite anyway, even Ukraine may lose and cede land, it can join NATO and EU for sure, the long term prospective is good, look to those eastern European members, which are all richer than anyone in Russian block.
In contrast, with Finland and Sweden joining NATO, the frontline is closer, Baltic sea becomes NATO inner lake, so does Black sea, all Russia's neighbors stayed away from Putin, did Russia feel more safer?
Putin/Russia has been given a lot more scope following what's going in Gaza. International attention has been diverted. Obviously. Ukrainian lives are therefore more at risk.
The glaring question is: Why did Biden and NATO deny Ukraine the critical weapon systems and quantities of ammo so it could not win this war months ago? Gaza would not have become a problem if the West provided Ukraine exactly what it needs for victory.
Putin eats babies....alive!