Nvidia's Earnings May Unleash A Huge Move

Nvidia will report earnings this week, and options market positioning will determine where the stock goes.
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Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.

[@Themarketchronicles]

Get a special discount for following my TH-cam Channel on The Market Chronicles on my Substack www.themarketchronicle.com/e83b87e1

[@jaychhatbar2351]

Awesome video with the best info on NVDA - please do this video every Quarter

[@Themarketchronicles]

Sure

[@savlatkhuseynov7370]

I bought 700P Jun 21. ARM had a great earning, but it went down by 14%, and the positioning was similar.

[@factotums]

Isn't ARM, the current iteration, still in its IPO phase?
Anyway it is too bad the Nvidia deal to acquire ARM didn't get approved. That would have been a juggernaut.

[@melesiodiaz3184]

Is this man okay?

[@TimoSurfs]

Sound quality is way better than before :) Thanks as usual for the great analysis! ❤

[@Themarketchronicles]

Good to know!

[@flutist001]

Very helpful detail analysis, especially involving greeks and market-makers. Going to short the weekly $925 strangles. Strike prices 925 +/- 90.

[@michaelrebic9367]

Great break down. I think if you made an educational video on options and the Greeks (basic to advanced), it would be a hit.

[@BrokerBarbara119]

Love your channel and Seeking Alpha page! Thank you for your insight! Folks watch the ads they help our Creators!

[@Themarketchronicles]

Yes! Thank you!

[@matthewokeefe2286]

Very informative analysis, thank you! Your comment that MM will sell when vol comes down is very insightful for me...I need to learn more about how market makers operate.

[@Themarketchronicles]

Glad it was helpful!

[@juancedano5839]

Thank you for clearing my thoughts. I agree with you. I believe that it will be an economic catastrophy to the tech industry in general.

[@Specktacle1]

Very educational. Thank you!!

[@AstiAlexandria]

VERY helpful ! I appreciate your work.

[@YoungALH]

Will you try to do one for PANW?

[@hikothe14th]

It's s crime this channel doesn't get more views and subscribers

[@Themarketchronicles]

Hopefully in time

[@hikothe14th]

@@Themarketchronicles I'm definitely spreading the word. Any thoughts on how to play Zim next week? Do you do this sort of a la carte analysis for subscribers?

[@fungdark8270]

Ive got one $10 wide short put spread on, I’ll open another $5 wide depending on IV before earnings I think

[@fungdark8270]

Trying to stay outside of the expected move while still getting over 1/3 the width of the spread on entry 👌

[@richardjennings7050]

Great Review

[@goodbodha]

Might go down this week, options expire and then bounce up. Might go up, options expire and then sell off or consolidate.
I do not think NVDA will drop below 900 this time and its likely going to be above 1k by next earnings. The thing is that NVDA is fundamentally a strong company and its position as the AI chip king isn't going to change for several years. Earnings wont disappoint simply because most of the earnings are from cap ex at the other mega caps and they reported their planned cap ex already.

[@Dinka2002]

Yes they are prob going to kill as many options as possible this Friday and then rip.

[@ibuyzzz]

Round tripping revenue never ends well.. Ask Ken Lay Enron...

[@trayvordemonslayer]

What software are you using here to get this data. It's there an affordable option I could use?

[@Themarketchronicles]

Bloomberg Terminal

[@rajachan8588]

Awesome insights. Thanks Michael 🙏

[@VirmanaMarketing]

an Iron Fly is a great trade here. I am thinking about putting one on and see how it goes. I'd love a trade idea from you or at least how you are approaching a possible trade. Buying options into earnings on a 900 underlying is extremely expensive and risky, so in your opinion do you sell options here or you just sit tight and wait for earnings to happen?

[@thepixalking6589]

Good stuff. Thanks

[@mariesmith8064]

Thank you so much, I learned a lot from this analysis.

[@Themarketchronicles]

Glad it was helpful!

[@mickeybeavison1053]

Great analysis

[@MMPublishingInc]

Hoping for a dip to get in!

[@musiccreation1198]

Super helpful, ty

[@blank-964]

Thanks

[@JDdollars]

As always great nonbiased info .appreciate you

[@Themarketchronicles]

So nice of you

[@Dinka2002]

is writing covered OTM calls to capture iv crash a good idea?

[@mjrenn0000]

Thank you

[@hankday28]

Thanks you for your videos Mike appreciate you!

[@Themarketchronicles]

My pleasure!

[@buffaloBean]

Good stuff. Any thoughts on selling credit spreads in NVDA

[@Themarketchronicles]

I can’t say

[@docbrown7513]

Without a downward revision of projections, it's dangerous. I don't see gen vol increasing till the eom. Similar companies at par... so the bet is par 800-1000

[@docbrown7513]

Looking for par and downward reviision for the future.

[@Dinka2002]

this OI is as of when? it says delayed

[@Themarketchronicles]

as of friday morning, becuase it didn't update for monday yet.

[@Dinka2002]

@@Themarketchronicles Thank you! Looking at Friday close change it seems that positioning is more bullish? What are your thoughts?

[@Dinka2002]

@@Themarketchronicles Also are you able to see live change in OI on Bloomberg?

[@naveedmushtaq9903]

Thanks for the video Matt
I know the market does not make much sense, with parabolic moves devoid of significant volume
Good things come to those who wait

[@Themarketchronicles]

Absolutely!

[@user-yp2ef5ef9l]

Moore Sharon Robinson Nancy Wilson George

[@animusadvertere3371]

Still waiting for "AI" to take over the world

[@DangerfieldChris]

It already has, it just didn’t want you to notice.