Stocks May Struggle As The Liquidity Train Comes To The End
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 21 ก.ย. 2024
- Reserve balances may be heading lower from here as the balance shrinks and the BTFP begins to unwind. The loss of liquidity could be a problem for the stock market.
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Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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It's been a corporate bond QE since October 2022, which is liquidity for stock buybacks. DXY and the HYG. Print money, buy corporate bonds, corporation use that liquidity for stock buybacks.
I use to keep track of rev repo moves as they aligned with the S&P. It typically front ran the S&P by a week, just though that was interesting timing on how institutions move cash around
This is good to assess after the fact. Since no one know when they will stop printing as it takes a month for an effect in the market. When you think they stopped, they print in another name... So unless you are part of their gang its impossible to deal with this
If you say so
bubble boy will always give you a reason to sell.
it's like how right wing grifters operate.
market pessimism sells more subscriptions for people who think they're smarter than the market.
When I see the XLF reverse on a two week basis, I'll believe the short term trend may, MAY, change...
Your videos are actually very good. Quality information and excellent delivery. You also seem very likeable. Hope you are successful.
I appreciate that!
Listening to gilburt advice I have been in cash since sp hit 4200, hurting so much
One of the most intelligent TH-camrs for stock market! ❤😊
Thanks
Nice chart thanks
XLF's MACD put in an RSI negative divergence at the close on Friday. The Financial sector had BPI sell signal on March 15.
Such good education and information everytime Michael thank you once again.
Always outstanding. Thank you very much. Without taking anything away from the above, something 'is up' that doesn't seem to fit our traditional analytical framework. It may be one source of liquidity one time, another the next. But someone sure is playing these markets like a fiddle. That said, thank you for always providing us with so much insight! S
Should I be looking at USDU and short term bonds to profit from this?
Good stuff! I thought that the bank bailout program last year was the big reason for the rally as well
Thank you Mike.
As always supreme information!
SICK rally through Wednesday this week!!
After the BTFP program expires, aren't banks supported to repay the loan a year after taking it out? So, theoretically, if a bank renews the loan a week before the BTFP program expires, they should have to pay it back in March 2025?
It is a one year loan so if they took a loan in sept they have until September the following year
The FED, the US gov and all the Wall Street insiders needed to pump the markets just one more time so all the insiders could get out at a massive bubble top - they've all done that now over the past three months - now all the insiders are out and made a vast safe profit, they can dump on the retail investor and their pension plans
and of course this was all aided and abetted by massive tech stock corporate share buyback programmes - the largest in history
Once again, excellent research.
Unfortunately, retail does not even remotely care about any of this, so they’ll still buy the “dip”, no matter how minuscule, en masse and turn it into a massive rally.
Thanks
Why should retail care. Price go up, get in. trend change get out. It's very simple.
@@trebailey4195 Buy high, sell lower. Interesting.
Thanks
Why do u say banks could extend the loan? I thougut its 1 yr from when they borrow it how do they extend it
i said I don't know if they were able to roll them fowrard at somepoint during that year.
market aint goin down til post election. the ppt will make sure
Like in 2000,2008, 2016, and 2020
How much your vip classes been in this fx thing for 5 years but havnt made money...why i say this looked at my history i haven't made more than what i lost
Outstanding
Thanks
I wanted to take a moment to express my heartfelt gratitude for your dedication and generosity in sharing your knowledge of financial activities in the market on TH-cam. Your daily commitment to teaching and guiding others, including myself, is truly invaluable. Your unique perspective and insights have not only broadened my understanding but also empowered me to make more informed decisions. Thank you for being a beacon of wisdom and inspiration in this ever-evolving landscape.❤
Wow, thank you!
Hello Michael, I have a question... What is the similarity between the S&P500 and the Dow Jones... If the S&P goes up, will the rest of the Indices go up?
Generally they tend to follow each other