Forecasting with Seasonality

A brief Excel demonstration of solving a forecasting problem with seasonality.

[@munungamununga3514]

This video is excellent, simple and easy to comprehend. Go Prof. Harvey Miller.

[@aztectc]

Thanks for the video. This is something I had a difficult time understanding at first in the way my professor has been explaining it. Great visual aid too.

[@ashnaontok8601]

Thank you very much Prof. I am a Psychology graduate and shifted my interest into MBA. Here I am, struggling. But with your educational TH-cams, I think I will survive MBA.

[@agroasesor1]

G R A C I A S mil señor Millar. It has been an interesting video. I work with animal here in COLOMBIA and here, like everywhere, is VERY important to try to predict production tendencies....I use my ownl models to predict milk production. Thanks in advance!!!!!

[@DrHarviMillar]

Thanks for the feedback. Most appreciated.

[@clunkmess]

THANKS, THIS VID SAVED THE DAY!

[@WaelQash]

Thank you a lot for this clear explanation.

[@MegaSpicyT]

Thanks, v helpful. Just would be good to understand why you choose to use a 2 period average and when you would choose to use more.

[@taylornelson7986]

Hi Prof. thanks for your video. I am trying to forecast daily while also taking out seasonality. Would it be useful to just create seasonal dummy variables? Or also weekly day dummies to remove the weekly effects?
Thanks!

[@jbastos2011]

very nice vídeo! thanks a lot for your help!

[@gavinflanigan709]

Hi there Dr. Millar, Thank you SO much for this video, you make forecasting look so easy!!! would I be correct in extrapolating that i could use this format to determine a weekly or Monthly seasonality?

[@DrHarviMillar]

Are you looking at different hours during a day or different days during a week? If it is the latter, disaggregate the time series by day. You would have 7 time series, one for each day. Use each one separately to forecast for that day.

[@emiliamaxim3554]

Hello, can you please let me know how do you name this method? thanks in advance

[@jorgecastano3735]

Thanks Professor.

[@sarahkoshak1116]

Can I do it quarterly

[@1rasha]

This is interesting. How to do it in case we have to forecast for multiple years. Request you to make video on that as well.
Thanks in advance from West part of India.

[@oluwaseunogunro6568]

Thanks Prof.

[@ronmacoon3114]

so pleasantly surprised when I heard the Caribbean accent. thanks for posting!

[@yanuaranabawahyuesa9049]

Why not test the data with MAD or TS ? How we know that forecast is well, Not wrong?

[@DrHarviMillar]

I am glad to be of service :-)

[@DrHarviMillar]

Thanks!

[@amazingashiq]

how did yu get 1.05? time 14:35

[@woissol5083]

1.05 is equivalent to the 5% he was talking about moments before inputting the data

[@DrHarviMillar]

Thanks.

[@pag4697]

why not using regressions?

[@chakki9293]

Can you please attach the excel file

[@mich7415]

shouldn't the factor of all should be equal to 1 ( or 100 %)

[@nikiw2547]

+MiCh Factor should be equal to the number of seasons. In this case it will be equal to 4

[@qwickben6690]

can you be my prof pls???

Yorum yapan tek Türk olmak istedim nedense

[@charlesturnquest7629]

this has to be a Caribbean accent.

[@Johny123B]

Could this presentation be any more boring. I really need help, but I cannot listen to this.

[@MegaSpicyT]

+Good DealS Its statistics! What do you expect :-)

[@Johny123B]

MegaSpicyT Statistics does not have to boring. There are some others present this material on youtube.