Stocks So Euphoric A Pullback Is Likely Soon | Lance Roberts & Adam Taggart
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 11 ธ.ค. 2024
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Stocks are currently at record levels of euphoria as measured by the Euphoriaometer (yes, such a thing exists!)
While he still expects a Santa Claus rally into year end, between now and then, portfolio manager Lance Roberts thinks there's good probability of a short-term pullback.
We discuss the reasons for that, as well as current technical indicators for the S&P, market sentiment, the latest Payrolls data, the risk of a much larger market correction in 2025, as well as Lance's latest trades.
For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this Market Recap.
#bullmarket #marketcorrection #jobsreport
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David Hunter says, “it will pull back 80%”
Thanks! It’s a pivotal moment for Bitcoin and the wider crypto market, especially with increased adoption since 2019 and BTC/ETH ETF speculation fueling interest. Given the current cycle, the ETF anticipation could sustain the market, possibly igniting a long-term uptrend. Trump's presidency may also bring policies that support decentralization and alternative assets like Bitcoin, enhancing its appeal. I’ve also seen results by following Seren Wintersun Crypto trading strategies, accumulating 750k in few weeks a testament to her expertise during these market shifts..
SHE IS ON TELE GRAM.
@Serenwintersun
In a field as rapidly evolving as cryptocurrency, staying updated is crucial. Seren’s continual research and adaptation to the latest market changes have been instrumental in helping me make informed decisions.
Always backup your trading with a good strategy.
Nice, I was just hoding before I found Wintersun. In my opinion she is the very best out there.
I bought some ETF’s on Friday. That’s the first time I have bought in about 18 months. Based on my experience, that alone should start a deep correction.
LOL. Good to know your contrary indicators.
The stock market is definitely picking up pace right now, but I still think investors should be careful at this time. I'm actually a newbie in this space, so I'm open to hearing other investors' take on this.
I think the market is likely at its best now, but I still believe having a financial advisor is crucial to navigate the market and moderate your risk. Their expertise can really help you make informed decisions.
I agree. I've been working with a financial advlsor since 2020, and I return up to 15k every month, and I don't even have to lift a finger. Although I also think the reason I make this much is because I started with significant capital.
How can i reach this person?
'Melissa Elise Robinson' is the licensed advisor I use. Just search the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.
Thank you for the lead. I searched her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
I think it is time to invite David Hunter. He called it all so far.
Adam saying the Hawk Tuah coin is a classic pump and dump is next level hilarious - classic unaware double entendre.
Hahaha😂
uhh... what does he know about that? does he know anything about the coin bar its standard price movement?
@@wasdwasdedsf I think you missed the point of double entendres
@@kevinobrien9271 i wasnt commenting on that part
50% declines in stocks are normal/to be expected. Warren Buffett said during Berkshire's 2020 annual meeting:"You shouldn't buy stocks unless you expect to hold them for a very extended period and you are prepared financially and psychologically to hold them. You've got to be prepared when you buy a stock to have it go down 50% or more and be comfortable with it, as long as you're comfortable with the holding." Lance is right though, when stocks go on sale 50% NO ONE wants to buy because the fear is palpable (I remember 2009).
oh man that sucked.. the problem today is that a 10% correction is going to have these new traders squealing like pigs...
Buffett is selling stocks after 3 months of owning them. Never listen to what Buffett says because he usually do the opposite.
I go a local dinner about once or twice a week in a small town called Allegan Mi. I have never over heard stocks or investing mentioned once this week a middle aged guy at a table near me was talking about Bitcoin, the peak must be near.
Haha! Had the same experience some time ago.
Yep, I was thinking the same when I was at a work lunch the other day, and people talked about Bitcoin and Solana
I was at Sam's club and an elderly man was talking about Bitcoin saying he was thinking about putting some of his retirement fund in it when he learns how.
I’m a firefighter, when firefighters start talking about bitcoin you know the end is near.
@@luc4273 oh really... but the peak wasnt quite some time ago... and as well know, people dont ever mention things unless theyre at their peak... its almost as if that whole thing is nonsense
Lance tells it how it is. Without doubt the best guest. Remember there have been guests who have been trumpeting an economic downturn and market crash is coming for several years.
It’s easy to talk about belt tightening and shared sacrifice if you are Lance or Adam. As the old saying goes, the easiest sacrifice is one that doesn’t cost you anything. But when two thirds of the population doesn’t have $500 in the bank, drowns in record debt, and works 2-3 part-time jobs just to make ends meet, sacrifice is not much of an option. The belt has already run out of holes.
A lot of the "don't have $500 in bank" folks have a new Lexus, eat out every day, drink $20 cups of coffee and post their vacation on Instagram so yeah they spent their money and more.
Exactly, trump tax cuts and program cuts only helps his billionaire cabinet that bought him the election
@MomoTrader809 I've personally observed this with those in my life who are struggling financially, they overspend and underinvest mostly from a lack of knowledge
All of the above.
Many of the people who have less than $500 in the bank made choices that led them to financial ruin rather than choices that would result in financial success. I'm in my 50's and have studied "poor people" - I was one of them, once - and they make some pretty questionable choices with their money. When they get some, they spend it, rather than saving/investing. Information on how to invest successfully is widely available for free. We've had a very good economy in the US for the past 15 years so there should be no excuses. Belt tightening and sacrifice starts with your own personal habits. Once you figure out how to save and start investing, it gets easier. I know people who work in low paying service jobs in rural Arkansas who save and invest, and I know executives who save nearly nothing and live for the day. They own the consequences of their decisions.
Lance I agree you are not a perma-bull as you present potential risks to the market. This is one of my fav shows I look forward to each week! 🎉
The worst stock tip in history; “Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau”, Irving Fisher Sept 3, 1929. Sound familiar?
Yes! Bring the Ripple guy on.
I would like to comment on Lance‘s parenting style. I’m a baby boomer and was raised very much in that same philosophy as Lance. I think the difference is between parents who are successful and don’t end up with kids with trauma or difficulties is that these parents show their kids how much they love them even if they make mistakes and mess up. And parents like Lance show their kids how much they trust them to stretch, grow and learn the lessons that they need to be successful. It’s the parents who don’t show the love and are very conditional with their treatment of their children that come out out of those situations with bad outcomes.
Hey Adam and Lance, great lesson on raising children-I can wholeheartedly agree with every point you made! As always, thank you both for this and the valuable market analysis!
11:00 Yardeni gets my respect for staying in the realm of probability and avoiding 'predictions'. He's very measured and has seen a lot in his time. He's not saying things are great, he's saying it looks like things are going to keep going...until something changes. That's been really successful in this market. I imagine money managers trying to call or predict market changes over the last few years have underperformed while people waiting to see the changes begin in actuality have done better? Thanks for all the great content.
Adam, I'd be interested in more details of how Lance avoided the GFC and was able to time getting back in at bottom, if you see this and think to ask him. Another great show, cheers!
Lance always claims that he has been right about everything... always. You must be new here. 😂
Why does it make so much sense when Lance says it???🎉
Because it doesn't. He has to get you to his office and signed up.
@TheMcGiffids STRONGLY disagree
YES Brad Garlinghouse PLEASE!!!
Yes, get Brad in!!!
He is protecting his son from Trump
😮😮😮😮😮😮😮😮
Too long for my time budget but I stuck around. This was one of the best Lance interviews for my questions about the markets.
Life without consequences turns life into a bunch of animals and predators, I am with Adam on this topic
I think Haley's been pumped and dumped a lot before, it's her way of getting back it's Society.
Yes would love to see a Brad Garlinghouse interview on this channel. He is doing a 60-Minutes interview tomorrow.
Lance brought his A-game today, thank you both
Lance! Your microphone give us a sound like you are under water...
Although Bitcoin has acted as a risk asset for the most part, what I found interesting was that during the bank shenanigans of last year, Bitcoin acted more like a safe haven and decoupled from the Nasdaq. I am pretty sure the same thing would happen if more banks go under in 2025. It SEEMS like Bitcoin is following stocks, but I think it’s following gold and USD. If it weren’t for Bitcoin, gold would be at $3000 right now.
And the market could absolutely go down 50%. Never say never. WW (three), CRE bust and banking crisis…or how about both. Not to mention a lot of the market’s growth is dependent on the mag7. If Nvidia takes a hit, the whole house of cards would come crashing down.
Adam, would definitely be interested in hearing from Brad at Ripple. Love the show 👍🏻
Is Lance still waiting for his carpenter to finish his fancy new studio?
Thank you for calling out the constant incorrect earnings predictions. I swear I saw some 10-15% predictions for the past year and its ended up being 5.8% growth.
Every analyst is saying the exact same thing: "i think it's going down, but first it's going up a bit more." This fella has a common view, not a contrarian view.
another very interesting presentation -you should have more technicians on Thoughtful Money !
On the protect your child thing, I agree Adam. Break the law, pay the price.
Let's hope Hunter hasn't killed anyone the last 11 years.
I have found that most people fall into two camps:
Those loyal to people or those loyal to principles.
The ones loyal to people will inevitably have to compromise their principles to maintain that loyalty. Ironically, these people can never be trusted because they have no moral compass and can turn on you in an instant depending on whom they're trying to be loyal to in any given situation.
The ones loyal to principle can be counted on to steadfastly try to do the right thing in any situation, even if it means losing their relationships in the process. In their mind, relationships come and go, but they have to live with themselves forever... and thus they always try to be true to their values first. The end up having fewer close relationships, but ones that are a lot deeper.
Yes - PLEASE have Brad Garlinghouse on the show! I love Ripple/XRP and the disruptive tech that they’re building out. This would be a treasure interview
Lance is the best. TY Adam.
Seems to me Fedex is the canary in the coal mine on the real American economy.
When stuff moves the economy is good but when stuff is not moving the economy is dying.
Classic vehicles I think are a good barometer as well. When prices drop the overall economy is getting pretty soft. But I think a lot of people buy those vehicles on equity lines of Home Credit. Probably adjustable rate as well, but either way I think when the economy tightens up they can't afford to pay that credit line.
I trade SPY almost exclusively. It’s not uncommon to make about 3X-4X my corporate salary weekly (hence, I’ll be retiring early just to trade, and NO, it’s NOT easy). I can see the drop setting up. I expect we’ll see a rally into the end of December, we might go up a little in first two weeks of January, then I’ll be in a good sized short position looking for a February/March 2025 drop. I expect a 12-15% gap fill to the downside. It could go further depending on market sentiment. IMO, Lance is correct.
what's a pullback?
i don't know the meaning... does it really exist?
This was the most informative, interesting hour and 46 minutes of useful information of my week!
Wow... Lance buddy is not being a Perma-Bull today
Yep. Every week Lance has a different position on the market.
Love Lance!
Another great episode. I love you guys! 🙏❤️
As always - great show!
TLT Looking good.
Absolutely incredible: Rosenberg-very knowledgeable guy-seems to have thrown n the towel. Roberts-also very knowledgeable guy-sending out a “caution” message. My money’s on Roberts. Legs ‘till June-ish?
6 months and the party is over. Everyone will start to realize trump has no magic wand.
TIl June? Wall St and the financial media have used up all of the regular tricks they use to pump n dump. What new trick could they possibly use now? You couldn't possibly believe actual good economic stats or earnings are about to happen!?
Sorry lance, I am invested about 20% in the market, but have a lot of dry powdered in short term Treasuries as I DCA. You forget that if a doctor has $500K in debt, but a homeless guy is up $8 in his pockets, the homeless guy is richer. The FED will step in? Not if "The Boys" want to punish Trump and all his supporters. You of all people should understand the term "the driver taking your hands of the bus wheel".
Enjoy the weekly recap, however way too long - try to keep it under one hour please
Tempering expectations is very important. Nice ad lib sandwich method, Adam
To Lance's point about us crossing the rubicon and that we'll never see a market correction of the magnitude we've seen during the GFC or the Great. Depression, I disagree. It's certainly not something I'm personally predicting anytime soon, but you never know what could occur in the future to shake people's confidence. COVID was an unprecedented event, yes, but confidence was restored rather quickly after people realized that the mortality rate was going to be dramatically lower than anticipated. And of course the FED threw the kitchen sink at it too. The threat of war, terrorism, cyber attacks, pandemics and potentially higher rates of inflation which could hamper the central banks ability to respond to a crisis, represent just a few of the threats that could really shake people's confidence in markets more significantly that COVID.
Lance doesn't believe in stagflation. He has said multiple times that we can't have both inflation AND a recession... but that's incorrect. You can absolutely have that as a currency dies.
The inflation comes from the rest of the world gaining purchasing power relative to the dollar thus keeping the cost of commodities and goods high... while the higher interest rates demanded to offset the depreciating currency cripple the economy.
The result, the Fed won't be able to cut rates/stimulate to stop a market crash at just 20-30% without collapsing the dollar and spiking inflation. They'll hold back longer this time... and thus the market will drop further.
Expect Trump to blame Powell for the pain and Powell to blame Trump's tariffs.
Theres no way there will be a correction. The market is in a melt up and can never go down again. Just kidding!
?😊
Lol #sarcasmisawesome
Everyone is waiting for the new year to dump
We'll all be drinking that free Bubble Up and eating that Rainbow Stew
@@duanejackson6718 With a silver spoon. 😆
Sound / internet problems Lance.
Sorry to say but if 95% of your guests are bearish, it’s hard to say the market ever falls
Dance near the exits
Still waiting for you guys to turn bullish, especially Adam. Then, we can confidently say the market has topped.
Yay, I can HODL til July!!! lol
Said everyone after watching this. You know we don’t make it to july
Get Brad on!!
Feels like a nasty sell off is around the corner.
Lance and I have raised our kids the same way!
To infinity and beyond ✨️
I would love a pullback to start the year. Selling into inauguration
Pullback won't be until May, to the earliest.
@SomeUserNameBlahBlah crypto is already going nuts. It won't last 5 more months
You mention JPM. Jamie Dimon said "assets" Are overvalued so no buybacks, so he was obviously talking about his stock, when asked about it on the earnings call. The stock was around $220 then not $245
If the true value is $100, then he is 100% correct, even if the price does go to $300 for a time.
I agree SP pullpack charts say a little
You know you are getting old when you think a artifical
pink Christmas tree looks GREAT.
No, I found such cheese cool when I was young.
100% TRY TO GET BRAD GARLINGHOUSE ON!
Yes, if you can please bring on Brad to talk about XRP and cryptos
The problem for a lot of people like me is that I don't have enough money (yet) to be interesting to a good money manager to take on as a client. So until I have enough capital I will have to muddle on by myself and hope my capital will survive and grow
Fantastic discussion
Excellent analysis Lance
Thank you Sir
You two keep me sane and I've honestly learnt so much from you
I always love listening to you Adam, you do fantastic work and e really appreciate you
Thank You Gentlemen
1:24:54 ... Thank you Lance for telling us how you'd restructure the indexes..
I did not know the purity of each index was so "bastardized."
Just another example of how fake info // lipstick // greed runs rampant in our society.
Trumps inauguration will be the pull back. I would defiantly be out of crypto by then.
Especially if Kamala refuses to certify the election... going full Banana Republic and thus crashing the dollar.
Have any of these economists driven through from the boonies to the inner city? If they had they would see either now leasing or closed store fronts... we're in a rolling recession
In a world of relativism and progressive thinking, there can be no true accountability at any level from person to community to culture to nation or markets as each person decides what is relative or true to them. Only when a culture adopts "absolute" truths can you start to make distinctions and then people can adopt behaviors accountable in nature. Can't have one without the other 🙂
I would love to hear more about Ripple from Brad!👍👍
Lance in Sept. 2022 was saying the Fed was going to cause a recession in 2023. Look where we are now. I missed it all because I was bearish thanks to just about everyone on YT. Ironically, now I'm bearish on my own. Buffet indicator at 30.
When Trump moves departments to Alaska, Guam and America Samoa and makes the people move there, departments might shrink.
Just moving them to rural US so they can hire people who have actually worked on farms into the USDA, etc. would keep those organizations from being left-wing echo-chambers of tyranny.
DC, MD and No.Va are all 90-95% Democrat desk jockeys and academics... and that's who they're hiring to make rules about how to run industries these people have zero experience with.
And because it's such an echo-chamber, they are ARROGANT AF. Arrogant, ignorant and lazy. Grew up inDy whole life and finally had to move out because the "REEEEEEEEE" was just intolerable. 🙄
Thank you very much...
Oh snap yeah bring on Brad Garlinghouse. Class act
Hilarious, I am going to use that one with my son (1:32:30). Lance regarding his kids "...when they leave the house, I go 'don't add to the population, don't subtract from the population'..."
You guys rock!❤🇨🇦
Isn't it true that BTC is the only crypto that has a limited mintage? And that is what makes people regard it as comparable to bullion? But Kathryn Austen Fits says that making BTC ETF's removes that limit. If she's right, BTC is suddenly vulnerable and should be abandoned as a long-term investment.
Blackrock is buying as much Bitcoin as it can as fast as it can, so using retail investors as a metric for euphoria is misleading.
You most definitely should get Brad Garlinghouse on your show. Ripple and how it utilizes the digital asset XRP on the XRP ledger is fascinating and often misunderstood!
Credit spreads goin up. Lance, talk about that!
The only reason moving forward to be bearish on equities is if/when the bond market decides to take away the printing press. The politicians have made it clear that any and all weakness will be met with infinite money printing, so as long as they are able to follow through on that there is simply no reason to be bearish. This is all entirely riding on government deficit spending.
Adam and Lance, MV = PQ. With so much outsourcing over the years should it be MV = P(Q + QE) ?
Adam and Lance, in the spirit of efficiency and routines .. why don’t you structure this weekly round up around 10-15 questions and get done in 30mins? .. save yourself and your viewers time!
Use to work for IRS. Did not have a desk. It was coworking in early 2010s. Its been going this way govt been saving real estate costs. What would have gave for my own space. Also a lot of employees are in the field. Are they counting those as working?
Buy Silver Platinum & Crystalized Osmium
Shrink government. Spend less on "defense" (lots of military basss in Europe and elsewhere). Reform social security and Medicare. Cancel the (Democrat insiders) department of Education. Encourage family formation and children production. Cut back on deficit spending. Empower and responsibilize government and make it more difficult for representatives to be influenced by outside sources (lobbyists). Doubt it can all be done but its worth a try.
Definition of economy. Engineering, Production, distribution, trade of goods and consumption. The US outsourced Manufacturing, and so much Engineering. We rather, distribute foreign Engineered and Manufactured goods. Economy by definition is no longer in this country, what do we have?
Adam, ask lance how options affect the market
Corporate profit skyrocketing isn't capitalism. It's lack of competition and price manipulation, especially comparing historical profit margin.
Bring on Brad
Lance could go work for the government and see if he can work less than 40 -45 hours a week
Smash that like button!
Smashed… 💥
You know it's the top when people are buying the e girl BJ coin...
See if u can get Brad pls
I suspect the stock market has done well because of massive debt and spending.
My biggest concern is buying in now it corrects then buy in some more then it’s a upswing overall decline cycle yoyo
Financial advisors will never criticize cryptocurrency to offend clients.
Even Lance will mention wild speculations in a coin.
It appears only Warren Buffet and Jamie Dimon will call it a scam.