Yale’s Robert Shiller On Valuing Bitcoin: Can It Be Done? | Trading Nation | CNBC
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 18 ธ.ค. 2017
- Robert Shiller, professor of economics at Yale University and Nobel laureate, discusses bitcoin’s valuation and more with Brian Sullivan.
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Yale’s Robert Shiller On Valuing Bitcoin: Can It Be Done? | Trading Nation | CNBC
I could listen to Professor Shiller all day and not get bored for a second.....big fan here. Makes me more smart every time I listen to him.
Yeah, but commenters here think they're way smarter than him. They deserve every penny they lost on bitcoin because of greediness. Sadly I was in the same boat cursing at everyone who had their concern about bitcoin and especially alt-coins. Looking at the bright side, I didn't spend that much.
Professor Shiller is a goat. I love that guy
I have 2 bitcoins - I bought them for 700$ each. I have no idea what they’ll be worth next year or in 10 years. I’ll hang on to them, though, whether they’ll go to 1M$ or 1$.
Buy a Trezor digital wallet to store them :-)
....www.amazon.com.au/s/?ie=UTF8&keywords=trezor&tag=googhydr0au-22&index=aps&hvadid=251788561858&hvpos=1t2&hvnetw=g&hvrand=5998048337626484809&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvqmt=b&hvdev=c&hvdvcmdl=&hvlocint=&hvlocphy=1000286&hvtargid=kwd-423245581&ref=pd_sl_7w6fwkni9t_b
Same
RTC1655 your in the 21 million club, of which their will only be 500,000 to $800,000 members. Good job!
Nice! Absolutely healthy decision making, stay long and secure it!
Can't believe it. The time now is 2 yrs after the video. Yes, now it turns to be bobble. How much is that? I don't buy the aircoin than the real gold coin....STF....
I think most people don't realize that Econ professors don't like to make assertions during interviews, because in the real world nothing is certain of 100%. But the "people" only like to hear those (yes, it's right, no it's not, yes it's a bubble, no it's not, yes bitcoin has value, no it doesn't). Rob Shiller, unlike most economists, is already making claims that lean toward bitcoin has no value, although he's not saying it outright. He said it could be valued anything from 0 to whatever the upper bound is. So that means there is a lot of risk investing in bitcoin. It's almost like buying a lottery ticket. I mean some people do get the grand prize and become billionaires. In fact every year there are a few. But the question you want to ask yourself is, are you the lucky one? So if you have extra money aside to buy some lottery tickets, you can also buy bitcoin. If you don't believe in lottery tickets, you probably don't want to buy bitcoin (or spend very little money on bitcoin).
Excellent, that's sums it up. You are a very wise gentleman and a scholar
Professor Shiller has been right again, people who bought at 18-20k should have listened. Amazing guy!
This aged…. Poorly
And here we are 4 years later Bitcoin touched $65K
And now it’s at almost $30k 😂
Did you realise that the guy does not answer to any question actually?
Very well said :-) .... its because he really doesn't have anything to say anymore because people are waking up from the monetary enslavement !
its not about first mover.... its about having the most secure network in terms of nodes an hashpower. If you are going to store large sums of money you want it to be as safe as possible....
Also
It seems they know what’s coming but still in denial about it... they better buy their beats soon ;)
A surprisingly interesting discussion
the very people that Blockchain will replace explain Bitcoin Blockchain technology... priceless MasterCard moment.
Beet-Coin.
I've got paid $84,000 thus far this current year for working via internet and I'm a full-time scholar. I'm trying a web business program i found out about and I've generated such great earnings. It's extremely user-friendly and I am just just very exhilarated that i found about this. The capability utilizing this is infinite.
Here's what i do>bit.ly/2yXsMqq
If Dwight Schrute started a cryptocurrency it would be called Beet-Coin
Good job Mr Sullivan
Bitcoin has never gone down once since inception without interruption. It also has the best programmers which have found a solution to the scaling problem. In a few years maybe months, bitcoin will be safe, virtually free and decentralized.
(the bitcoin network i mean)
The only thing that has ever been used to measure the value of anything is what a person is willing to pay for it.
that's why Bitcoin will be massive. There are only 21 million coins and eventually everyone is going to be very willing to pay anything to have a piece of it.
Watching this in 2021 and I love it 😂😂
Give the man some credit. Not any of us here can actually put a true value on bitcoin. The market is dictated by us, the people, and how much we're actually willing to pay for it. Not any more, not any less. That's the whole reason why there are bids and asks. Someone can be selling a bitcoin for "x" amount, but we won't buy it unless we value it at a certain amount. That amount is an idea or concept based on our beliefs or previous experiences. A lot of people are more confident in companies and stocks than bitcoin because there are fundamentals there, so there's your previous experience. To buy into bitcoin and HODL, you must actually believe it IS a good store of value. But that only occurs when there's widespread adoption of it as a store of value. When people sell and the market cap goes down proportionately, that means that not only are people not willing to value it at a high price, but likely the participants within the market have also left, meaning these people don't believe in the currency, further lowering belief and trust.
Bitcoin is not going up, our dollar is going down. How much does your fiat buy you today? How much goes your savings account go up in five years. The story I like is 20 million bitcoin, and no more being digitally printed.
I'm shocked. CNBC interviewer making decent points in favor of BTC. It's usually the land of Idiotica.
Now, robert is right
One of the largest online retailers accept this value as a mean of settlement to a real commodity or service transactions
So it’s a currency as an asset that you’ve never seen in traditional self established centralized systems as federal reserve or what you’re calling central banks that stamps paper and transcripts digital values here is a competitor which is basing its underlying assets on the pricing of extreme anonymity, limitless security and worldwide immediate liquidity...
6:32, scarcity give it value, yes, but who can guarantee bitcoin will have not any competitors in the future?
A Transistor ? Old man problems
Cryptocurrency, you take a recognized and backed real currency, invest and turn it into a cryptocurrency, and it multiplies and pays you back profits in a real currency. Sounds like a long term plan to make money, huh.
an easily movable store of value is worthless?? this guy is so entrenched in his old ways he cant see whats coming
No, Shiller sees and understandings what's going on. He just can't openingly say 'it's ok, it's acceptable'. One day he will. But don't wait for his stamp of approval.
he predicted the 1999 bubble and 2008 bubbles but was years early. Just saying..
whutman- great. So when Shiller begins 'predicting' this crypto top, I simply add 2 yrs to it. Thx. We need some accuracy for getting out near the top you know. Shiller will do.
yeah. Well, that was for the 2008 crash. His 2000 prediction was only a month off if I recall correctly.
ahh... have to find another contrarian indicator. Never easy.
4:01, Soviet could not have taken bitcoin, yes, I agree. But whoever regulate bitcoin to give people confidence to use bitcoin, can take it away from you.
bitcoin is not a stock, don't treat it like
1. *RAIBLOCKS* (post-blockchain DAP tech, superfast, feeless, decentral)
2. NAV
3. LTC
4. BTC/BCC and forks (slow, industrial country scale energy use).
Christina, you forgot something: network effect. Also, it's slowness, etc. are positives which shows that the devs and community don't move until there is a consensus, there is such a thing as growing too fast. The internet had scalability issues at first and they're always being solved.
sjaak, right? Always using old paradigm thinking to describe something novel like square blocks into round holes. Like art critics of old trying see value in Van Gogh's artwork, he was a genius ahead of his time just like Satoshi.
Money with wings (near instant global reach), truth (a verifiable and immutable ledger), privacy (peer to peer) safety (cryptographic security), that is sound (deflationary and decentralized) will prove to have more value than ANY other form of money, including precious metals because billions of people already trust a system of digital money that is NONE of the above. Consider this seriously Ken.
I think it is reasonable to say that there is irrational and over exuberant speculation involved, that it creates another super rich class of people, that it has scalability issues, but I'm still waiting for a solid argument that clearly demonstrates it has no value.
If you seriously think the president of Fidelity Investments, Bill Gates, the country of Japan, the state of California and hundreds of venture capitalists that are sinking billions of venture capital into Bitcoin infrustructure, and many others are brain dead, all I can say is you had better have the world's highest IQ and bullet proof evidence that is not mere incendiary name calling and meme parroting.
Bitcoin can now be transmitted by satellite and other means. For example, with those with trusted relationships, I could use paper wallets like a new form of dollar. There will be more alternatives in the future. I don't keep money on a digital wallet, so I won't get hacked.
Nooooo, to go anytime everywhere with my money without impediments has no value.
This is all the value that I need to be valued.
hi everyone, Do anyone have idea about nautics?
watching this after bitcoin hits 50,000
lol kkkkk
Watching this after Bitcoin drops to 38,000
There is a huge value in it, you can go to any part of the world with any amount of money, you have 100% ownership and be able to cash it anytime and anywhere you want, at the same time it is an investment. If you are traveling outside of the country with cash, and bring more than $10K you gonna have to declare it, if you bring more than $20K you are going to have a big problems at the airport (cash is pain in the butt)..
its tulip mania all over again.
He's such a dinosaur, just because you can't run the standard set of technical analysis on cryptos doesn't mean that it's junk. Every new technology does not fit the mold at first, then, suddenly you're ordering groceries from Amazon delivered by a drone.
These academics make comments on Bitcoin because it's a big disruptive phenomenon that can't be ignored. Yet, they fail to get a good understanding of what Bitcoin represents.
Bob shill says it all
Here you can clearly see how the price of Bitcoin influences peoples thinking. Bitcoin at the bottom of the crash in dec 2018 is exactly the same thing as dec 2017. Wait until bitcoin reaches 20k again, many people will change their mind and fomo back in, telling everyone to buy.
This guy doesn't understand money. "The mystery of money is to figure out why these pieces of paper have value..." Bro, research history. It used to be backed by gold. Why is gold money? etc..
Once a cynic, always a cynic!
you own bitcoin I assume
Value ~ volume of daily transactions combined with positive use cases like wealth protection from wallstreet banksters and central bank gangsters, oh and I almost forgot to mention the ivory tower mothball scented "shillers"!
he never answered the question.
the guy's noble prize seems to have no value either...
Read his books, he is great. Too intellectually honest for a Nobel prize, maybe.
he hates bitcoin like he hates beets lol
Notice how CNBC keeps on bringing this guy to validate that Bitcoin doesn't have any value. The Nobel Prize for Economics is overrated. The most recent Nobel laureates have shown that they are pretty clueless. If anything Satoshi Nakamoto deserves to be the next Nobel Prize winner for economics.
he predicted the 1999 bubble and 2008 bubbles but was years early. Just saying..
There were many others who predicted these things and they aren't even professors.
true, although many who did, did so for the wrong reasons. It doesn't take any talent to claim the sky is falling at any given moment. Shiller was one of the few who actually crunched the numbers and even invented new metrics as his reasoning. I would rank him as one of the most talented people in the world for predicting bubbles.
Only about 1% of the world population supposedly own Bitcoin. I'd like for him to apply his own econometrics (that earned him an Nobel Prize) on Bitcoin and go ahead and predict when this "bubble" will pop.
you can't just apply the same metrics for housing to bitcoin. It doesn't work like that.. completely different entities.
Wow the nonsense of this segment.
I hate beets (by Dr. Dré).
Take your cryptos off exchanges.
And i thought he's going to shill Bitcoin...
Lol u wish u bought when u made this comment lol
it dedefinatly aint a bunch 0f guys meeting 0n jekel island l0l
bitcoin - how high will the dead cat bounce?
his last name is shiller ..not sure i can take this guys advice seriously
But we are not on an island fighting over beets so cryptos have virtually no value.
Bitcoin is worth is 400,000 usd at this time
Dude is stoned lol
medica, pharmica and univercity taken 0ver by r0ckerfeller and carnigy 1936 in 0therw0rds c0ntr0ll hummmm 0il t00 and fed reserve see yan wish my 0 key w0rked
thugs irs wh0 steal y0ur lunch m0ney n0t even g0vernment
Shiller LOL
What if the Chinese govt or Saudi or even our CIA is behind it. I wouldnt invest in it but to each his own. If it's just excess savings people dont really need, I see no harm in it. Much like gambling.
lol... peak befuddlement and incoherence... “we have no idea” lollllzzzzz
These guys are becoming bipolar / tripolar
LOL, the cognitive dissonance is strong with these two.
Bitcoin is worth One Bitcoin. They’re will only be 17 million,. Ask Germany how much their gold was worth when they asked the USA to audit their gold, and when refused asked for its return. Both no.
What a weak argument from the guest. Booo 😒
Once the bubble pops, Bitcoin's real value is $1,000 to $3,000.
More like zero.
Funny to watch to grown man trying to understand kids stuff lol.
Looking forward to your next incoherent, rambling interview.
Bullish discussion coming from someone who only in the summer was talking down the value of Bitcoin. Looks like the old geezer has slowly had a change of mind.
Wow this guy really doesn’t know anything about blockchain.
Educate me about blockchain
Basically the Yale's professor of economy doesn't know what Bitcoin and the blockchain are
The guy being interviewed is dumbfounded and confused, because, by his own definition he can't justify the value of our paper dollar, but keeps asserting that bitcoin has no value..anything that can purchase something has
"value"
1 BTC=0 USD, plain and simple. You can create unlimited crypto currencies and hence cannot compare to rare metals. It doesn't have any cash flows or earnings or other metrics to compare it with stock. The transaction cost is more than 30$ and take several minutes, that's not how real world customer experience is, to wait several minutes. BTC has no value.
But it costs 60k today...
Thats why you are just a professor and not a multi millionaire or a billionaire
Gotcha Mota are you?
Gotcha Mota oh and please google yale professor salary
$174,100 is peanuts bro compared to Bitcoin.
you know he's a tenured prof at one of the most rich schools in the world? His salary is probably around 300k-500k per year.. not bad to say the least
he is a millionaire
He clearly doesn't know what he is talking about
Smart economist, but talks too much about psychology and neurology...how many PhDs does this guy have? Pretty sure just one. Wish he would have stuck to his domain. At the same time, the use value of BTC as being a "currency" to store value attracts economist to prod at that point, but really the use value is in the cryptographic characteristics, which means a computer scientist that works in the financial security sector would be better to discuss the "true value" of BTC.
Donald Daedalus
If you want a computer engineer or computer scientist to comment, I can tell you that anyone can value something. If you claim a value you have to support it with facts. Most everyone that drives a car can tell you roughly the value of a gallon of gas in there locality so when you see it overvalue somewhere you don't go there to fill up. Its relatively easy to value something that people understand like a gallon of milk etc. You should also be able ask all the owners of bitcoin to tell you what a fair price for bitcoin should be.
That's ~$150,000...or 10 BTC?
He's no doubt an icon in the world of economics, arguably the psychology, perhaps the hybrid discipline of behavioral economics. Side stepping the petty argument about which university department has a right to claim what methodological characteristic to call part of its own discipline (i.e. psychologists would not and do not condone behavioral economics as psychology seewww.psychologytoday.com/blog/science-choice/201705/what-is-behavioral-economics), let's focus on Shiller's point here, and more broadly. His basic premise (historically and here, though not contextualized by the interviewer) is that people's decisions are prone to errors, particularly in short term decision making. His book Irrational Exuberance frames him as a popular person to talk about bubbles.
www.theguardian.com/technology/2000/dec/30/internetnews.business
Ironically, and this is my point, the book was published and prescient around the Dot Com bubble. That's his claim to fame. The nuance of the fact that, while many lost money in the short run of the Dot Com bubble, 50% of the companies going under or being bought out (mostly by Yahoo), 50% that remained would have and did result in the some of the most profitable long term investments and 2 of the 4 most highly valued securities in the world today, 17 years later: Google & Amazon. So if he would have bought Amazon stock with the royalties of the book, today he would be teaching in a building at Yale named after him.
Is going Long or Short on a security more or less relevant in the context of an overvaluation bubble? Yes.
About predicting Bubbles: 10 out of the last 3 bubbles have been predicted by economists.
But my original point is that, as Shiller doesn't understand the computer science application of BTC nor blockchain, proof of work, or blockchain 3.0, proof of stake, he can't tell us the use value. He can't tell us the use value of Amazon today, or even in 2001. AWS as a centralized networking infrastructure or even data collection through voice. But people like Cassandras, particularly if you're watching dry news, like CNBC, which make bubble predictions.
Let me be clear: I'm not suggesting anyone invest in BTC today. That's not my point. My point is Shiller is out of his element here; predicting a housing bubble, student loan bubble, or automobile loan bubbles are much different than predicting the "Internet" (Dot Com) Bubble or BTC bubble because the use value of homes, education, and automobiles are much more easily calculated than the use value of a website in 2000 or digital assets in 2017.
saying that economic behavior is influenced by psychology is like saying that a river's course is influenced by the river's bank. Genius, LOL.
economics is a subset of psychology, which is a manifestation of neurology.
What a corporate shill
Own cryptocurrencies or regret it later!
lol