I can remember my mom and dad telling me about the bad inflation that hit the world as a whole in the early 80's. My dad had just gotten a new job at almost double his original salary. Then things went south. By the time the downturn was over, it was like my dad never doubled his salary. And if it were not for getting the job that he did, we would have been in big trouble.
5:22 you guys omitted an important step that took which reduced inflation finally and got rid of stagflation. it was heavy deregulation that followed during Reagan era starting 1980s. Pensions were replaced with valueless 401ks, labor union almost disappeared leading to wage stagflation that we are still in. Business were given free reign to do whatever they please to make shareholders happy leading to lower quality of goods produced and unhappy employees. As you guys said this led to business opening shop in other countries like Mexico or Asia converting Midwest state into Rustbelt. So, to get rid of stagflation Americans made a deal with devil which though provided benefits in short term has been bleeding this country dry over the years since.
AS a child I remember what our pastor said..economic recession and recovery will come and go. It may be better times after the recovery, But we will never have it as good as it was before
I think we should add "Shrinkflation" to this mix too. This is when companies used to charge $4 for a bag of chips and now charges the same or more, but the bag is much smaller or chips are of lower quality. People don't usually notice this stuff, but companies are doing it and raking in more money for less output.
Completely agree!! There is a jar of pasta sauce I used to buy, it was really tasty but over time I noticed they were making it more and more watery. Now it's basically a jar of tomato water with chunks in it - at the same price. 🤦♀️
@@nolin132 No, inflation implies raising prices. Shrinkflation means keeping the same price overall price but raising the per gram price by giving you less.
@@Jose04537 that's how companies typically adjust to inflation. To make things more palletable to consumers, they first shrink the package without reducing the price. Then, a year or so later, they release a more expensive "20% larger family size" version. In the end, the size hasn't changed but the price has.
6:35 sums the dilemma up beautifully; just because government utilizes methods to tame inflation, does not mean that the result isn't painful to people! Plus, people do remember past efforts, and haven't recovered.
Young people weren't really able to afford a home even before rising rates these days. I remember buying during the double digit rates. Fortunately just before they started to drop, so my rates (adjustable) dropped over time. If that were today, the rates seem the least of the problems
I was born in the 70s I remember growing up in the 80s my parents were not into any fast food whatsoever we always ate at home. Driving around from store to store was also a no go and when cable spiked my parents gathered all the channel boxes and dropped them off at the cable company and cancelled. Repairs for the house and car were done by my father. Riding bikes and playing football or baseball were the thing. We survived.
Learned about this channel in my personal finance class during my junior year of highschool. Glad I learned about it cause through it I’ve saved 20k in 8 months as a factory worker that lives with their parents. Uses some of it to get a used car and some to max out my yearly contributions to my IRA. Thanks 2 cents!
My parents bought their first home from an aunt and uncle set to relocate in retirement. By setting a contract and making payments directly they bypassed the banks and both sides benefited. Granted, it wasn't without risk.
Depending on how long the payment arrangement was, the aunt and uncle lost out on a lot by receiving payments spread over a ?decade? rather selling and reinvesting the capital. And, as you mentioned, took on a lot of additional the risk. One side benefitted, one side gifted.
Although inflation and unemployment was high 40 years ago, people online have pointed at that wages went a lot further back in the day (we're still not being paid the same wage as a person in 1968, factoring productivity levels have soared since) and that the cost of more expensive goods (housing and continuing education in particular) were WAY lower in cost or were heavily subsidized (such as the case of education) when counting for inflation
This is highly accurate. Wages have not kept up with the cost of living which in effect is why this might not be AS bad as it was then, but still not very good.
Household have 2 wage earners now. Cost rose to meet this new household buying power. Instead of just Dad working at Ford in 1980 and making $20/hr. Now Dad works at Costco and makes $30/hour and Mom works for State Gov't making another $24/hr. Housing has risen faster but not by ....that much.
@hf32jkm5 This is a stupid comment and I assume you don't actually know very many people. Yes more people have a 2 income family than the 80's...but there are still a LARGE percentage of single earning households out there. Many people still have housewives or house husbands that don't work, there are a much higher percentage of single mothers out there....stop generalizing. Just because you know 5 people in this situation doesn't mean it applies to the millions of people in the population. 🙄
@@SportyGeek12 Those single income people aren't as competitive anymore. It's just math, theyve moved down the curve. A single income household today is at a much larger disadvantage compared to 40 years ago. Probably could be considered below average just on that fact.
Can't believe these things Just Keep Happening Also, how are people living paycheque to paycheque supposed to start an emergency fund? Or buy diverse investments? Or are they SOL and should have been born better off? You can't frugal way out of a financial crisis
The concept of living "paycheck to paycheck" in a developed country is laughable. You can always be smarter about your money. You can have immigrants that earn less than you and yet manage to send a considerable amount of their salary monthly to their family back home for support. Yet, you are more qualified and earn better than them but you live "paycheck to paycheck".
@@thepigeonhqhq not comparable considering those immigrants have 10 family members living with them who also work and contribute to the income. You’re comparing apples and oranges here.
@@thepigeonhqhq sure, but most come with family or at least bring there family over here eventually. My point still stands that an immigrant who has multiple family members living with them and contributing to the household income is better off often than a single American who lives by themselves and has only one person to rely on an income.
@@mastersnet18 because the single American cannot conveniently live together with their family if they wanted to. Do you hear yourself? And no, family members actually start contributing quite late because they also need to adjust to the country. It is normally one ambitious family member than immigrates and starts working right away :)
I think it's very important to acknowledge the difference between the 70s and today, particularly debt. the largest category of debt in the 70s were mortgages, which are a tangible investment. a house purchased with a mortgages will appreciate in value one of largest categories of debt today is student loans, which are not tangible. sure, a college education leads to higher wages on average, but theres no real appreciation in value.
Exactly. Everyone has more debt, the population has grown significantly, and yet actual production, whilst growing modestly, has been outstripped by all of these factors. And, regardless of the government can try to manipulate, the REAL physical house will always be more valuable than the devaluing currency, thus the cost of housing will exponentially rise. If America ever had a bad harvest like the dust bowl in the 30's, the same principle would apply to food.
Thanks for making me feel old. I was young, but I clearly remember those times. My Dad worked for a financial institution, so he was able to renew his mortgage at a special employee rate of 14%
Thanks so much for making these videos, I had watched one on stagflation a few weeks ago (on a different channel) but struggled to understand. This was really helpful!
That's just dumb rasing rates in hopes price will come down. Might of work in the 20th century but not today. Just like property taxes " we go by what sells around you" That work back then, not today when price of homes jump 50k to extra 150k. That's a huge jump in taxes. Need a new plan to adjust to today's economy
Strangely enough, the rich _love_ the increasing property tax because they can afford it while everyone else is shoved into being a renter for properties the rich own.
Thank you for making this video, I really needed to hear the advice to stay steady and keep up with my smart financial decisions over doing something rash!
I wonder how automation is going to play into things this time. Companies will only have greater incentive to automate away human jobs as cost of employment increases in wealthy countries. As much as I support automating jobs that are dangerous and often unfulfilling on average, I can't help but feel bad for people who genuinely love their jobs and will lose their livelihoods.
Housing being turned into investments that people profited off is a huge problem you haven’t touched on in this video. Do you have one on its effect in the economy
I sold a couple properties in 2020 and I'm waiting for a house crash to happen so I buy cheap. In the meanwhile, I've been looking at stocks as an alt., any idea if it's a good time to buy? I hear people say it's a madhouse and a dead cat bounce right now but on the other hand, I still see and read articles of people pulling over $225k by the weeks in trades, how come?
it depends on your exit and entry strategy, most folks are used to a bull market and can't handle a crash, but if you know how to navigate and where to look, you'll make a killing.
@@MadrilenosConqueror True, the US-Stock Mkt had been on it’s longest bull-run in history, so the mass hysteria and panic is relatable, considering we’re not accustomed to such troubled mkt, but as you mentioned there are avenues lurking around if you know where to look, I’ve netted over $850k in the past 10months and it wasn't some rocket-science strategy that i applied , I just knew I needed a firm and reliable technique to navigate better in these times, so I hired a portfolio advisor.
@@TheGothicKingErmanaric That's impressive, my portfolio have been tanking all year, tried learning new strategies to gain in the current market but all of that flew right over head, please would you mind recommending the investment adviser you're using?
@@UltmateChessPlayer Amanda Ashley Hale is actuaIIy the one that guides me, she’s a hlghIy-sought out advlser, so I’m not certain she’s acceptlng new intakes, but you can give it a shot. It wouldn’t be proper to just Ieave her number Iying around, but she has a webpage so googIe her name.
With inflation currently at about 10%, my primary concern is how to grow my reserve of $240k which has been sitting duck since forever with zero to no gains, sure I'm all in on the long term game, but with my savings are lying waste to inflation and my portfolio losing gains everyday, I need a remedy asap.
One thing I can recommend looking into is I-bonds. They have both a flat rate and a fluctuating interest that specifically grows with inflation, and as the government spikes APR that interest is going to keep skyrocketing. Very safe and effective during these times.
There's a recent NY Times article by Paul Krugman called "From Stagflation to ‘Immaculate Disinflation'" that provides a nice overview of comparisons of today with the 1970's (and why it really isn't a good comparison).
No one should take the CPI nor the unemployment rate seriously. They are designed to be misleading so the government can claim "It's not that bad". If you stopped looking for a job for more than 4 weeks because you give up (for example), congratulations, to the eyes of the government you're "no longer unemployed" because you are not part of "The population actively looking for a job (unemployed)". Also it doesn't measure people under employed. About the CPI if today was measured under the metrics used in the 80s, then it would be around 15-20% increase. It's like saying "you're no longer poor" because they conveniently changed the definition of "poor".
Great, that ending is making me sing, the wise man built his house on the rock. If there’s something more certain the taxes, it that the clear sky will turn stormy. It not an if, but when.
With markets falling, inflation soaring, the Fed imposing a sharp hike in interest rates, while Treasury yields are rising rapidly, meaning more red ink for portfolios this quarter. How can I take advantage of the current market volatility, I'm still at a crossroads deciding whether to liquidate my $125,000 ETF/Growth Stock portfolio.
Focus on two key goals. First, stay protected by learning when to sell stocks to cut losses and capture profits. Second, prepare to profit when the market turns. I recommend that you seek advice from a CFP or inveestment advis0r.
Right, ever since the pandemic, I've maintained contact with a CFP. Today, buying into hot stocks is really simple; the challenge is knowing when to purchase and sell. My advisor chooses the entry and exit commands on my portfolio; with an initial stagnating reserve of $80k, I have accumulated almost $550k.
No doubt, the stock market is definitely the most awkward teenager with the wildest mood swings! I began with a pundit by name Jill Marie Carroll. Her approach is transparent allowing total ownership and control over my position and fees are very reasonable in comparison with my ROI.
Our price inflation is (as always), chiefly the result of monetary inflation (raising the ratio of money in circulation to GDP) by means of the "stimulus" payments. It's stupid to fight the price inflation (which we caused ourselves ) by raising interest rates, which serves to reduce GDP, actually making the whole problem worse. Causing stagflation is economic insanity. Once we have caused the price inflation, we should just accept it as the price of fighting the pandemic.
Jfc the timing of TH-cam recommending me this video with the 2nd Yom Kippur war starting yesterday with Hamas bombing and attacking Israel. Let’s see what other similarities occur. Fun times ahead
I mean if your dream on starting a business or buying a home relied on interest rates , then you are far too dependant on debt in the first place. Sigh.
Finally someone makes a video showing things aren’t as bad as they seem and they weren’t better in the past. So much of the financial internet these days is people rambling on how young people have it bad and how their parents had it better which is just not true
The cost of a college education has risen out of pace with inflation for a long time. It is a fact that cannot be ignored and is putting an undue burden on young people.
And they could just put money in a savings account in a bank to see it grow more than inflation. We have no secure stable modern equivalent. All there is is the stock market, which runs the risk of losing everything. And these days even an index fund slow shrinks. You're better off with the money in a bank savings account because then it's only losing value from inflation, not losing values and decreasing.
The fin-Markets have underperformed the U.S. economy as fear of inflation hammers the prices of stocks and bonds. My $400,000 portfolio is down by approximately 25%, any recommendations to scale up my returns before will be highly appreciated.
@@JeanpaulCeme Given that we are not accustomed to such uncertain markets, the fact that the US stock market has been on its longest bull run ever makes the widespread anxiety and excitement comprehensible. There are opportunities if you know where to go, as you noted that it wasn't difficult for me to earn more than $780k in the previous 10 months. Since I was aware that I would need a reliable and strong plan to get through these tough times, I engaged a portfolio advisor.
@@valeriepierre9778 How can one find a verifiable financial planner? I would not mind looking up the professional that helped you. I will be retiring in two years and I might need some management on my much larger portfolio. Don't want to take any chances.
@@edelineguillet2121 “Julia Ann Finnicum” is the coach that guides me, She has years of financial market experience, you can use something else but for me her strategy works hence my result. She provides entry and exit point for the securities I focus on.
@@valeriepierre9778 I just looked up Julia online and researched her accreditation. She seem very proficient, I wrote her detailing my Fin-market goals.
@@yolanderiche7476 Impressive, i’ll most definitely check her out. I buy the idea of employing the services of a Financial Advisor because finding that balance between saving and living requires counsel.
I might be an idiot, but if YoY inflation sat at 9% for a year and we're now going into the next year, wouldn't inflation be compounding now? Basically (cost+9%)+5%. It's not like we've had a deflation period...
So as I have said in prior videos you guys are great through just your attempts to get peoples fiscal attention. However, I again think the substance of your information is misleading. My first problem is that you noted that the price shocks haven’t been as drastic as in the 70’s. Yes so far they haven’t if you trust the CPI, and even the less conservative economists laugh when you mention an accurate CPI… but assuming the CPI isn’t a lie, we have such dramatically higher debt loads than in the 1970’s as a percentage of GDP. What if this current period is more like 1973 or 74’ than 1979? What if the worst is yet to come? The question you must answer is whether you really think the fed would raise rates to ~21% again if inflation required it? I THINK NOT! Next is your statement that the global economy is more flexible. NO there is no evidence of that. In fact it is the opposite. Sovereign debt loads in the west are at record highs, European banks are at record price to book ratios and are being bailed out as we speak. UK pension funds shuddered and almost failed even at the thought of rates rising. Below the sovereign level are the businesses. Corporate Europe and America are over leveraged to the hilt, and who blames them with ~0% rates for a decade. ThT was the incentive! And the personal savings rate is at all time lows, the personal debt burden, especially credit cards and other revolving lines are at all time highs. We and Europe are massive import economies with massive trade deficits and now the dollars eminence as reserve is being openly jeopardized. Without the dollar as reserve we cannot continue spending at every level like this! And that leads to the final thought question we must answer. When the fed is forced ti raise rates to 15-20% or higher, and when the dollar isn’t accepted as reserve to the breadth it has for decades, what is congress going to do? In other words, what is congress going to do when they are forced to shrink the government by 88%? They have two choices, actually cut the government by 90%, or print the money and cause hyperinflation. I don’t believe that congress has the political will to do the right thing, just as I don’t believe the fed does either. Owe by the way, another question might be, to assume that the fed grows a pair and actually raises rates as much as necessary at the expense of the economy to save the dollar, will congress allow that? I also believe that congress would desolve the fed before it would allow them to do the right thing. One last P.S. COVID-19 did not make the economy sick. The government did by forcing people to stay home and businesses to close their doors and then printing 40% of our money supply in less than 12 months. Compare this economy to that of the Spanish Flu. The national government didn’t barely get involved in 1918-1919 and the recession was short and minor. And the government did the opposite now and here we are. Asking these questions to ourselves.
Some of the predictions of Two Cents aged like, for example the January 2021 video "Should the government balance it's budget." They said "Inflationary fears haven't materialized in reality". Also the metrics of the CPI are as laughable (if not insulting) as the metrics of the unemployment rate.
all of this is exactly true. You hear some people counter that 'the US dollar has risen, so therefore you are false', meanwhile other currencies have been overtaking the US, all the debt that you mentioned, and the endless money printing. On top of this, in this situation, a 'stronger' US Dollar in this situation indicated a very weak faith in the global market. Not only this, but a stronger dollar makes American goods more expensive to export, which makes it more difficult for American industry to return, which makes slowing unemployment and inflation more difficult. Europe is even worse, with its massive demographic collapse that currently experiencing. East Asia as well. We are in for a VERY rough two decades.
I still remember your january 2021 video about "should the government balance its budget?" where you said "most predictions that economist said haven't realised, inflation hasn't gone up" referring to pumping money to the economy. Oh boy, that aged like milk.
They are not as adventurous to make predictions since their January 2021 video about "Should the government balance it's budget?" aged like milk. They said "Inflation fears haven't materialized in reality" in that video.
I am surprised with all the protests economically round the world there has not been another great depression yet. All that credit debt, inflation stagflation, and recession...oh well this too shall pass
@@BassLiberators Imagine taking the opinion of the IMF seriously when they failed to forsee 4 of the 5 crisis on the last 20 years. They are as accurate as a broken clock and some countries faired much better without their loans (Portugal)
I found the paperwork from when my dad bought my childhood home in 1990 and he had a variable interest rate that could climb as high as 16%!! My aunt who has worked in real estate her whole career even said that was a totally normal mortgage for 1990. That made me feel a bit better about interest rates today.
I guess my question is why is everyone concerned now? I think inflation and the supply chain issues peaked over a year ago, and the jobs numbers and GDP growth look solid enough. I feel like I’m living in 2023 watching videos about 2021 or 2022.
@@Tyneras I wouldn’t be shocked if that’s what we end up with. Although I think high inflation at this point is more like 3% year over year after having 10% inflation. It feels like stagflation is the furthest thing from what’s going on and a lot of media is like, “time to dust off a term we’ve wanted to introduce for a while.”
I wanna know what kind of home prices people were paying if 18.45% were feasible. I feel like the video is leaving something out like relative prices to income to try to make Stagflation seem worse than our situation. When this inflation is over I doubt housing will become affordable again.
Inflation is only scary because the twats that are always in charge(regardless of party) always attempt to deny it or mitigate it instead of telling people how to handle it. Take care of as much variable APR debt as you can(credit cards in particular are a bad one), and try to lock in any big purchases before it really hits. Look for stable investments such as dividends and I-bonds. Above all do not panic. It will be fine.
The real economy been hungry to start roaring. With inflation falling only improves this because you can't run a business with the price changing day by day. It's like trying to build a house when the measurements change day by day. In the next few years when the economy starts to stage and if other countries start dumbing our exported inflation then we would be in trouble.
It's quite funny to hear people complain about a 10% inflation while I live in a country with a 27% inflation (it was 34% this summer) and a war in "the neighborhood" 😁
macro talking point the globalization was just starting to ramp up in the 70s labor union busting. it took off in the 80's financial deregulations/tax cuts. flourished in the 90s (NAFTA, USSR untapped resources). and peaked with china becoming the manufacturing hub of the world for cheap labor. all those decent paying blue collar jobs were shipped overseas. the drafter of the NAFTA papers admitted the wealth benefits it would bring to americans was going to take 100yrs. in that same time period we have 3 major market crashes since 92. what we got out of it was an gig economy fueled on cheap labor and money but that is going away. chinas willingness to shut down its entire economy at will is causing reshoring to take place, great for blue collars. bad for companies bottomline wage inflation will tick higher. let alone russia thoughts of glory reforming the USSR. thats not including the fed is tightening raising rates while china is printing money at will. while japan since being americas last stop of cheap money by YCC. they will own their entire bond market and print INFINITE YEN. thus offsetting the tightening cycle the fed is doing. MAKING INFLATION WORSE. we will have a currency war while trying to tame inflation. the monetary magic show is a lot more grandiose than the 70's.
But even with all the warning given before the storm hits... people in good times are taking things for granted.. instead of saving for a rainy day or an investment.. they prefer to live the good life.. shops... travels.. luxury brands.. etc.. they preach that if you invest then your travel or retirement will not have a good experience cause you are to old or something..
If you don’t work after a few years, they stop counting you all together when they consider unemployment numbers! it’s not that hard to find that out man! stop being a dumb
That's because people can mostly live off welfare now, vs 50 years ago. A lot of people simply are not looking for work. The better stat is % of able bodies actually working, which is how historically very low
Layoffs have started and there are more to come. A huge shift towards a gig economy also highly inflates that #. Many of those employed are underemployed and can't weather the inflation storm. Also, wage increases have not kept up with the cost of living expenses (for maybe a few, not the masses at least). The housing market is on a downturn with no reason to slow down any time soon. The next few years will not be very positive. - Obviously what I am saying does not apply to everything and everyone. Some industries aren't phased by this and some actually thrive in these conditions. Tech and housing will continue to get hammered.
Most people don’t realise it, but the secret to retiring comfortably is finding a way to make returns while your money works for you. My dad, as I remember, started saving for retirement quite late, but I know he was making more than 10k returns from his investment monthly and it was completely passive.
Haha. Investing enthusiast? Not really. Our family got introduced to a financial advisor about four years before my dad retired. That was what changed things. I've been using the same now and I think my retirement income would be on the right track.
I'm intrigued by this. I've searched for financial advisors online but it's kind of hard to get in touch with one. Okay if I ask you for a recommendation?
Stacy Lynn Staples", is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
![โอ้เธอช่าง... - บี้เดอะสกา ft. ต๋อง เทวัญ (Prod. by ป๋าเพชร) [Official MV]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/zbWhiLFmVL0/mqdefault.jpg)
Bring back the 'stache! #bringbackthemustache
I can remember my mom and dad telling me about the bad inflation that hit the world as a whole in the early 80's. My dad had just gotten a new job at almost double his original salary. Then things went south. By the time the downturn was over, it was like my dad never doubled his salary. And if it were not for getting the job that he did, we would have been in big trouble.
Same thing going on right now
We definitely need that moustache back! This guy might end up being the mafia boss.
5:22 you guys omitted an important step that took which reduced inflation finally and got rid of stagflation. it was heavy deregulation that followed during Reagan era starting 1980s. Pensions were replaced with valueless 401ks, labor union almost disappeared leading to wage stagflation that we are still in. Business were given free reign to do whatever they please to make shareholders happy leading to lower quality of goods produced and unhappy employees. As you guys said this led to business opening shop in other countries like Mexico or Asia converting Midwest state into Rustbelt. So, to get rid of stagflation Americans made a deal with devil which though provided benefits in short term has been bleeding this country dry over the years since.
yup, and entire nation and social order as we know if is suffering because of this deal with the devil.
AS a child I remember what our pastor said..economic recession and recovery will come and go. It may be better times after the recovery, But we will never have it as good as it was before
Thanks 2 Cents for helping us keep our heads 🤣
The news about the economy can be so scary and confusing!!
It's going to be bad and you should be scared if you haven't been preparing for at least the past 5 years. The shit has already hit the fan
I think we should add "Shrinkflation" to this mix too. This is when companies used to charge $4 for a bag of chips and now charges the same or more, but the bag is much smaller or chips are of lower quality. People don't usually notice this stuff, but companies are doing it and raking in more money for less output.
That's just called "inflation"
Completely agree!! There is a jar of pasta sauce I used to buy, it was really tasty but over time I noticed they were making it more and more watery. Now it's basically a jar of tomato water with chunks in it - at the same price. 🤦♀️
@@novalinnhe That's even worse than making the product smaller, because it reduces it's nutritional value.
@@nolin132 No, inflation implies raising prices. Shrinkflation means keeping the same price overall price but raising the per gram price by giving you less.
@@Jose04537 that's how companies typically adjust to inflation. To make things more palletable to consumers, they first shrink the package without reducing the price. Then, a year or so later, they release a more expensive "20% larger family size" version. In the end, the size hasn't changed but the price has.
6:35 sums the dilemma up beautifully; just because government utilizes methods to tame inflation, does not mean that the result isn't painful to people! Plus, people do remember past efforts, and haven't recovered.
The argentinian flag in the lamp and the tango at the beginning was a nice touch....😂😂😂
Young people weren't really able to afford a home even before rising rates these days. I remember buying during the double digit rates. Fortunately just before they started to drop, so my rates (adjustable) dropped over time. If that were today, the rates seem the least of the problems
I was born in the 70s I remember growing up in the 80s my parents were not into any fast food whatsoever we always ate at home. Driving around from store to store was also a no go and when cable spiked my parents gathered all the channel boxes and dropped them off at the cable company and cancelled. Repairs for the house and car were done by my father. Riding bikes and playing football or baseball were the thing. We survived.
Thanks for making this! It’s going to be really helpful for my us history students studying the economic conditions of the 1970s!
Yeah i couldn't believe when my parents told me that they had an interest rate on a car at 25% 😬
Learned about this channel in my personal finance class during my junior year of highschool. Glad I learned about it cause through it I’ve saved 20k in 8 months as a factory worker that lives with their parents. Uses some of it to get a used car and some to max out my yearly contributions to my IRA. Thanks 2 cents!
My parents bought their first home from an aunt and uncle set to relocate in retirement. By setting a contract and making payments directly they bypassed the banks and both sides benefited. Granted, it wasn't without risk.
Depending on how long the payment arrangement was, the aunt and uncle lost out on a lot by receiving payments spread over a ?decade? rather selling and reinvesting the capital. And, as you mentioned, took on a lot of additional the risk. One side benefitted, one side gifted.
Although inflation and unemployment was high 40 years ago, people online have pointed at that wages went a lot further back in the day (we're still not being paid the same wage as a person in 1968, factoring productivity levels have soared since) and that the cost of more expensive goods (housing and continuing education in particular) were WAY lower in cost or were heavily subsidized (such as the case of education) when counting for inflation
This is highly accurate. Wages have not kept up with the cost of living which in effect is why this might not be AS bad as it was then, but still not very good.
Household have 2 wage earners now. Cost rose to meet this new household buying power. Instead of just Dad working at Ford in 1980 and making $20/hr. Now Dad works at Costco and makes $30/hour and Mom works for State Gov't making another $24/hr. Housing has risen faster but not by ....that much.
@hf32jkm5 This is a stupid comment and I assume you don't actually know very many people. Yes more people have a 2 income family than the 80's...but there are still a LARGE percentage of single earning households out there. Many people still have housewives or house husbands that don't work, there are a much higher percentage of single mothers out there....stop generalizing. Just because you know 5 people in this situation doesn't mean it applies to the millions of people in the population. 🙄
@@SportyGeek12 Those single income people aren't as competitive anymore. It's just math, theyve moved down the curve. A single income household today is at a much larger disadvantage compared to 40 years ago. Probably could be considered below average just on that fact.
@@ikhbjhbkm5 lol dammit I guess the dating apps would be worth it if I consider marrying someone just for their income to add to mine.
You’re slowly turning into an emo boy band lead singer each episode lol
Can't believe these things Just Keep Happening
Also, how are people living paycheque to paycheque supposed to start an emergency fund? Or buy diverse investments? Or are they SOL and should have been born better off? You can't frugal way out of a financial crisis
The concept of living "paycheck to paycheck" in a developed country is laughable. You can always be smarter about your money. You can have immigrants that earn less than you and yet manage to send a considerable amount of their salary monthly to their family back home for support. Yet, you are more qualified and earn better than them but you live "paycheck to paycheck".
@@thepigeonhqhq not comparable considering those immigrants have 10 family members living with them who also work and contribute to the income. You’re comparing apples and oranges here.
@@mastersnet18 you have a very interesting idea about the immigrants overall. Many are actually completely alone.
@@thepigeonhqhq sure, but most come with family or at least bring there family over here eventually. My point still stands that an immigrant who has multiple family members living with them and contributing to the household income is better off often than a single American who lives by themselves and has only one person to rely on an income.
@@mastersnet18 because the single American cannot conveniently live together with their family if they wanted to. Do you hear yourself?
And no, family members actually start contributing quite late because they also need to adjust to the country. It is normally one ambitious family member than immigrates and starts working right away :)
BRING BACK THE MUSTACHE
I think it's very important to acknowledge the difference between the 70s and today, particularly debt. the largest category of debt in the 70s were mortgages, which are a tangible investment. a house purchased with a mortgages will appreciate in value one of largest categories of debt today is student loans, which are not tangible. sure, a college education leads to higher wages on average, but theres no real appreciation in value.
Exactly. Everyone has more debt, the population has grown significantly, and yet actual production, whilst growing modestly, has been outstripped by all of these factors. And, regardless of the government can try to manipulate, the REAL physical house will always be more valuable than the devaluing currency, thus the cost of housing will exponentially rise. If America ever had a bad harvest like the dust bowl in the 30's, the same principle would apply to food.
At this rate, the millennial generation will experience stagflation, nuclear war, and a global winter like The Day After Tomorrow
You left out the Great Recession
that's what happens when we don't keep our politicans accountable... more coming our way.
We can only hope. Irradiated rubble in 2029 will still cost $600K at 9% on a 30 year.
All while still being told we are lazy for not being able to afford a $500k home on $17/hr
@@someonewhocares5033 we already experienced that.
Thanks for making me feel old. I was young, but I clearly remember those times. My Dad worked for a financial institution, so he was able to renew his mortgage at a special employee rate of 14%
Bro.... you the only one that looks more creepy without a mustache 😳
Thanks so much for making these videos, I had watched one on stagflation a few weeks ago (on a different channel) but struggled to understand. This was really helpful!
.......who are you and what did you do with phillip 👀
That's just dumb rasing rates in hopes price will come down. Might of work in the 20th century but not today.
Just like property taxes " we go by what sells around you"
That work back then, not today when price of homes jump 50k to extra 150k.
That's a huge jump in taxes.
Need a new plan to adjust to today's economy
Strangely enough, the rich _love_ the increasing property tax because they can afford it while everyone else is shoved into being a renter for properties the rich own.
I still miss the moustache
Love the roots and the wind analogy
He looks so much younger without the mustache.
This is gold.
i love you guys!
Thank you for making this video, I really needed to hear the advice to stay steady and keep up with my smart financial decisions over doing something rash!
philip is going from a financial advisor to a hippie
mid life crisis
I dunno, man. Have you forgotten the mustache? I think he's going from hipster to hippie.
Oh man! I thought he started identifying himself as a woman now. Hippie is still better than that shit.
I’m waiting Julia becomes a tiger mum.
Y’all weird for reading that much into his hair choices.
I wonder how automation is going to play into things this time. Companies will only have greater incentive to automate away human jobs as cost of employment increases in wealthy countries. As much as I support automating jobs that are dangerous and often unfulfilling on average, I can't help but feel bad for people who genuinely love their jobs and will lose their livelihoods.
The government say they need people to have babies, but those babies are likely to be unemployed and the government will do nothing about it.
The kind of jobs that are easily automated are rote and not typically beloved
@@Tyneras it's the large corporations that will be automating the jobs. They aren't the ones in need of venture capital and loans.
Name one job that people love doing that will be automated?
Who will buy the good if (almost) everyone looses their jobs?
bring back the mustache
Housing being turned into investments that people profited off is a huge problem you haven’t touched on in this video. Do you have one on its effect in the economy
Where is the man with the mustache!? 😆
I sold a couple properties in 2020 and I'm waiting for a house crash to happen so I buy cheap. In the meanwhile, I've been looking at stocks as an alt., any idea if it's a good time to buy? I hear people say it's a madhouse and a dead cat bounce right now but on the other hand, I still see and read articles of people pulling over $225k by the weeks in trades, how come?
it depends on your exit and entry strategy, most folks are used to a bull market and can't handle a crash, but if you know how to navigate and where to look, you'll make a killing.
@@MadrilenosConqueror True, the US-Stock Mkt had been on it’s longest bull-run in history, so the mass hysteria and panic is relatable, considering we’re not accustomed to such troubled mkt, but as you mentioned there are avenues lurking around if you know where to look, I’ve netted over $850k in the past 10months and it wasn't some rocket-science strategy that i applied , I just knew I needed a firm and reliable technique to navigate better in these times, so I hired a portfolio advisor.
@@TheGothicKingErmanaric That's impressive, my portfolio have been tanking all year, tried learning new strategies to gain in the current market but all of that flew right over head, please would you mind recommending the investment adviser you're using?
@@UltmateChessPlayer Amanda Ashley Hale is actuaIIy the one that guides me, she’s a hlghIy-sought out advlser, so I’m not certain she’s acceptlng new intakes, but you can give it a shot. It wouldn’t be proper to just Ieave her number Iying around, but she has a webpage so googIe her name.
@@TheGothicKingErmanaric I did check her out, I see why she's booked up, her creds/resumé is topnotch. I booked a consultation with her regardless.
With inflation currently at about 10%, my primary concern is how to grow my reserve of $240k which has been sitting duck since forever with zero to no gains, sure I'm all in on the long term game, but with my savings are lying waste to inflation and my portfolio losing gains everyday, I need a remedy asap.
Wait for the rate hammer.
One thing I can recommend looking into is I-bonds. They have both a flat rate and a fluctuating interest that specifically grows with inflation, and as the government spikes APR that interest is going to keep skyrocketing. Very safe and effective during these times.
Scam bots
Phillip turned from a true gentleman to a “But Dad…” Hipster. And yet I personally 100% okay with that. The pandemic did weird things to peoplw.
Absolute dread @3:01 lol
If Philip gets the mustanche back with that hair, he’d look kinda like Anthony Keidis of RHCP
All in all though, good info on this one!
There's a recent NY Times article by Paul Krugman called "From Stagflation to ‘Immaculate Disinflation'" that provides a nice overview of comparisons of today with the 1970's (and why it really isn't a good comparison).
Im not sure my loved ones can wait. 1 is homeless. 2 more are possibly about to go homeless too.
The gig economy might be factoring in the low unemployment.
Not might be, it definitely is.
No one should take the CPI nor the unemployment rate seriously. They are designed to be misleading so the government can claim "It's not that bad". If you stopped looking for a job for more than 4 weeks because you give up (for example), congratulations, to the eyes of the government you're "no longer unemployed" because you are not part of "The population actively looking for a job (unemployed)". Also it doesn't measure people under employed. About the CPI if today was measured under the metrics used in the 80s, then it would be around 15-20% increase. It's like saying "you're no longer poor" because they conveniently changed the definition of "poor".
October 2023: add the Israel/ Palestine blow-up to the global crises. History repeating yet again...
The road to hell is paved with good intentions
bro we miss your mustache and short hair please go back
Great, that ending is making me sing, the wise man built his house on the rock. If there’s something more certain the taxes, it that the clear sky will turn stormy. It not an if, but when.
Whoa new hair 😊 love it
The hair was certainly 70s in the video😅
Moustache please
National debt exceeding 275% GDP = not very good
Get ready for a millennium of stagflation
With markets falling, inflation soaring, the Fed imposing a sharp hike in interest rates, while Treasury yields are rising rapidly, meaning more red ink for portfolios this quarter. How can I take advantage of the current market volatility, I'm still at a crossroads deciding whether to liquidate my $125,000 ETF/Growth Stock portfolio.
Focus on two key goals. First, stay protected by learning when to sell stocks to cut losses and capture profits. Second, prepare to profit when the market turns. I recommend that you seek advice from a CFP or inveestment advis0r.
Right, ever since the pandemic, I've maintained contact with a CFP. Today, buying into hot stocks is really simple; the challenge is knowing when to purchase and sell. My advisor chooses the entry and exit commands on my portfolio; with an initial stagnating reserve of $80k, I have accumulated almost $550k.
No doubt, the stock market is definitely the most awkward teenager with the wildest mood swings! I began with a pundit by name Jill Marie Carroll. Her approach is transparent allowing total ownership and control over my position and fees are very reasonable in comparison with my ROI.
Scam bots. Do not trust.
OMG The transformation is hugggeeeee
Our price inflation is (as always), chiefly the result of monetary inflation (raising the ratio of money in circulation to GDP) by means of the "stimulus" payments. It's stupid to fight the price inflation (which we caused ourselves ) by raising interest rates, which serves to reduce GDP, actually making the whole problem worse. Causing stagflation is economic insanity. Once we have caused the price inflation, we should just accept it as the price of fighting the pandemic.
oh no the NFT accountants
He looks like a pierce the veil extra. Great vid as always
We have arrived. But of course NPR can't name who's at fault because it's their paymasters. 🐴
Adapt and overcome
Almost forgot improvise
The tattoos are growing and growing.
Damn I'm not able to find any Bocchi the rock comments
lol unlike in 1970 though, we now all have less wages because of low wage growth so yeah we are fudged
Jfc the timing of TH-cam recommending me this video with the 2nd Yom Kippur war starting yesterday with Hamas bombing and attacking Israel. Let’s see what other similarities occur. Fun times ahead
I mean if your dream on starting a business or buying a home relied on interest rates , then you are far too dependant on debt in the first place. Sigh.
Phillip looks really weird without any facial hair.
Finally someone makes a video showing things aren’t as bad as they seem and they weren’t better in the past. So much of the financial internet these days is people rambling on how young people have it bad and how their parents had it better which is just not true
The cost of a college education has risen out of pace with inflation for a long time. It is a fact that cannot be ignored and is putting an undue burden on young people.
And they could just put money in a savings account in a bank to see it grow more than inflation. We have no secure stable modern equivalent. All there is is the stock market, which runs the risk of losing everything. And these days even an index fund slow shrinks. You're better off with the money in a bank savings account because then it's only losing value from inflation, not losing values and decreasing.
@@tracymeserve5627 agreed
@@jacqslabz that’s not true
@@lilyyoung1002 that’s not true
I thought it’s OPEC, not OAPEC
The fin-Markets have underperformed the U.S. economy as fear of inflation hammers the prices of stocks and bonds. My $400,000 portfolio is down by approximately 25%, any recommendations to scale up my returns before will be highly appreciated.
@@JeanpaulCeme Given that we are not accustomed to such uncertain markets, the fact that the US stock market has been on its longest bull run ever makes the widespread anxiety and excitement comprehensible. There are opportunities if you know where to go, as you noted that it wasn't difficult for me to earn more than $780k in the previous 10 months. Since I was aware that I would need a reliable and strong plan to get through these tough times, I engaged a portfolio advisor.
@@valeriepierre9778 How can one find a verifiable financial planner? I would not mind looking up the professional that helped you. I will be retiring in two years and I might need some management on my much larger portfolio. Don't want to take any chances.
@@edelineguillet2121 “Julia Ann Finnicum” is the coach that guides me, She has years of financial market experience, you can use something else but for me her strategy works hence my result. She provides entry and exit point for the securities I focus on.
@@valeriepierre9778 I just looked up Julia online and researched her accreditation. She seem very proficient, I wrote her detailing my Fin-market goals.
@@yolanderiche7476 Impressive, i’ll most definitely check her out. I buy the idea of employing the services of a Financial Advisor because finding that balance between saving and living requires counsel.
Why is she wearing a dashiki though...?🤔
Is Phillip's Dad Lemmy? Maybe next episode it will be even more apparent? (K'mon, you know where I'm going... ha ha)
I might be an idiot, but if YoY inflation sat at 9% for a year and we're now going into the next year, wouldn't inflation be compounding now? Basically (cost+9%)+5%. It's not like we've had a deflation period...
So as I have said in prior videos you guys are great through just your attempts to get peoples fiscal attention. However, I again think the substance of your information is misleading.
My first problem is that you noted that the price shocks haven’t been as drastic as in the 70’s. Yes so far they haven’t if you trust the CPI, and even the less conservative economists laugh when you mention an accurate CPI… but assuming the CPI isn’t a lie, we have such dramatically higher debt loads than in the 1970’s as a percentage of GDP. What if this current period is more like 1973 or 74’ than 1979? What if the worst is yet to come? The question you must answer is whether you really think the fed would raise rates to ~21% again if inflation required it? I THINK NOT!
Next is your statement that the global economy is more flexible. NO there is no evidence of that. In fact it is the opposite. Sovereign debt loads in the west are at record highs, European banks are at record price to book ratios and are being bailed out as we speak. UK pension funds shuddered and almost failed even at the thought of rates rising. Below the sovereign level are the businesses. Corporate Europe and America are over leveraged to the hilt, and who blames them with ~0% rates for a decade. ThT was the incentive! And the personal savings rate is at all time lows, the personal debt burden, especially credit cards and other revolving lines are at all time highs.
We and Europe are massive import economies with massive trade deficits and now the dollars eminence as reserve is being openly jeopardized. Without the dollar as reserve we cannot continue spending at every level like this! And that leads to the final thought question we must answer. When the fed is forced ti raise rates to 15-20% or higher, and when the dollar isn’t accepted as reserve to the breadth it has for decades, what is congress going to do? In other words, what is congress going to do when they are forced to shrink the government by 88%? They have two choices, actually cut the government by 90%, or print the money and cause hyperinflation. I don’t believe that congress has the political will to do the right thing, just as I don’t believe the fed does either.
Owe by the way, another question might be, to assume that the fed grows a pair and actually raises rates as much as necessary at the expense of the economy to save the dollar, will congress allow that? I also believe that congress would desolve the fed before it would allow them to do the right thing.
One last P.S. COVID-19 did not make the economy sick. The government did by forcing people to stay home and businesses to close their doors and then printing 40% of our money supply in less than 12 months. Compare this economy to that of the Spanish Flu. The national government didn’t barely get involved in 1918-1919 and the recession was short and minor. And the government did the opposite now and here we are. Asking these questions to ourselves.
Not to mention blaming the "war in Ukraine" where both countries involved are a miniscule part of the world economy. Liberal boogy man
Some of the predictions of Two Cents aged like, for example the January 2021 video "Should the government balance it's budget." They said "Inflationary fears haven't materialized in reality". Also the metrics of the CPI are as laughable (if not insulting) as the metrics of the unemployment rate.
all of this is exactly true. You hear some people counter that 'the US dollar has risen, so therefore you are false', meanwhile other currencies have been overtaking the US, all the debt that you mentioned, and the endless money printing. On top of this, in this situation, a 'stronger' US Dollar in this situation indicated a very weak faith in the global market. Not only this, but a stronger dollar makes American goods more expensive to export, which makes it more difficult for American industry to return, which makes slowing unemployment and inflation more difficult. Europe is even worse, with its massive demographic collapse that currently experiencing. East Asia as well. We are in for a VERY rough two decades.
I still remember your january 2021 video about "should the government balance its budget?" where you said "most predictions that economist said haven't realised, inflation hasn't gone up" referring to pumping money to the economy. Oh boy, that aged like milk.
History repeats itself. And those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat the same mistakes.
👍👍👍
A disappointing reality when even two cents video can't tell what is being cooked. 😑
They are not as adventurous to make predictions since their January 2021 video about "Should the government balance it's budget?" aged like milk. They said "Inflation fears haven't materialized in reality" in that video.
I am surprised with all the protests economically round the world there has not been another great depression yet. All that credit debt, inflation stagflation, and recession...oh well this too shall pass
The IMF isn't even predicting a recession for the US anymore, let alone a depression. Economic growth and employment have been way to strong.
@@BassLiberators Imagine taking the opinion of the IMF seriously when they failed to forsee 4 of the 5 crisis on the last 20 years. They are as accurate as a broken clock and some countries faired much better without their loans (Portugal)
It's a shame that they elevate the guy and diminish the girl :(
All. Man made, so sad..
"No way to prevent this" says only economic system where this happens
"Communism has never been tried before" says the only system that has been repeatedly tried and failed miserably.
Record profits for large corporations.
Very temporarily. Nearly all of the companies that made bank during covid have shed that profit and then some.
@@BassLiberators Tell that to oil companies.
It even have a name "greedflation"
I found the paperwork from when my dad bought my childhood home in 1990 and he had a variable interest rate that could climb as high as 16%!! My aunt who has worked in real estate her whole career even said that was a totally normal mortgage for 1990. That made me feel a bit better about interest rates today.
I love your videos, but what's with the new hairstyle? You look like a college kid who studies French. Bring back the stache!😁
Controlled opposition
Im from Venezuela and this inflation is just a joke for me jajaja
I guess my question is why is everyone concerned now? I think inflation and the supply chain issues peaked over a year ago, and the jobs numbers and GDP growth look solid enough. I feel like I’m living in 2023 watching videos about 2021 or 2022.
@@Tyneras I wouldn’t be shocked if that’s what we end up with. Although I think high inflation at this point is more like 3% year over year after having 10% inflation. It feels like stagflation is the furthest thing from what’s going on and a lot of media is like, “time to dust off a term we’ve wanted to introduce for a while.”
I wanna know what kind of home prices people were paying if 18.45% were feasible. I feel like the video is leaving something out like relative prices to income to try to make Stagflation seem worse than our situation. When this inflation is over I doubt housing will become affordable again.
Inflation is only scary because the twats that are always in charge(regardless of party) always attempt to deny it or mitigate it instead of telling people how to handle it.
Take care of as much variable APR debt as you can(credit cards in particular are a bad one), and try to lock in any big purchases before it really hits. Look for stable investments such as dividends and I-bonds.
Above all do not panic. It will be fine.
Dividend stocks when interest rates go up?
@@JakoWako Usually still fine. The dividends are the last things to decrease cause it's too important to keep them high.
To be fair stagflation was probably not as bad as inflation now because wages kept rising to keep up,not so much now…
How long has this guy had a sleeve of tats?
Ever since he got released from the federal penitentiary
The real economy been hungry to start roaring. With inflation falling only improves this because you can't run a business with the price changing day by day. It's like trying to build a house when the measurements change day by day.
In the next few years when the economy starts to stage and if other countries start dumbing our exported inflation then we would be in trouble.
It's quite funny to hear people complain about a 10% inflation while I live in a country with a 27% inflation (it was 34% this summer) and a war in "the neighborhood" 😁
macro talking point
the globalization was just starting to ramp up in the 70s labor union busting. it took off in the 80's financial deregulations/tax cuts. flourished in the 90s (NAFTA, USSR untapped resources). and peaked with china becoming the manufacturing hub of the world for cheap labor. all those decent paying blue collar jobs were shipped overseas. the drafter of the NAFTA papers admitted the wealth benefits it would bring to americans was going to take 100yrs. in that same time period we have 3 major market crashes since 92. what we got out of it was an gig economy fueled on cheap labor and money
but that is going away. chinas willingness to shut down its entire economy at will is causing reshoring to take place, great for blue collars. bad for companies bottomline wage inflation will tick higher. let alone russia thoughts of glory reforming the USSR. thats not including the fed is tightening raising rates while china is printing money at will. while japan since being americas last stop of cheap money by YCC. they will own their entire bond market and print INFINITE YEN. thus offsetting the tightening cycle the fed is doing. MAKING INFLATION WORSE.
we will have a currency war while trying to tame inflation. the monetary magic show is a lot more grandiose than the 70's.
But even with all the warning given before the storm hits... people in good times are taking things for granted..
instead of saving for a rainy day or an investment.. they prefer to live the good life.. shops... travels.. luxury brands.. etc..
they preach that if you invest then your travel or retirement will not have a good experience cause you are to old or something..
I wanna say that our unemployment today is historically the lowest it's been in like 60 years or more, true? Something like 3% right now
If you don’t work after a few years, they stop counting you all together when they consider unemployment numbers! it’s not that hard to find that out man! stop being a dumb
True, but many are under employed, with wages so low that one can work full time and still be homeless.
That's because people can mostly live off welfare now, vs 50 years ago. A lot of people simply are not looking for work. The better stat is % of able bodies actually working, which is how historically very low
@@thedopplereffect00 do you have a source for those claims?
Layoffs have started and there are more to come. A huge shift towards a gig economy also highly inflates that #. Many of those employed are underemployed and can't weather the inflation storm. Also, wage increases have not kept up with the cost of living expenses (for maybe a few, not the masses at least). The housing market is on a downturn with no reason to slow down any time soon. The next few years will not be very positive. - Obviously what I am saying does not apply to everything and everyone. Some industries aren't phased by this and some actually thrive in these conditions. Tech and housing will continue to get hammered.
CORN
But how does it cost?
*the governments REACTION to covid "made the economy sick"
Most people don’t realise it, but the secret to retiring comfortably is finding a way to make returns while your money works for you. My dad, as I remember, started saving for retirement quite late, but I know he was making more than 10k returns from his investment monthly and it was completely passive.
This is really amazing though. I'm curious as to how he did it. Was it real estate? Or he was a market enthusiast?
Haha. Investing enthusiast? Not really. Our family got introduced to a financial advisor about four years before my dad retired. That was what changed things. I've been using the same now and I think my retirement income would be on the right track.
I'm intrigued by this. I've searched for financial advisors online but it's kind of hard to get in touch with one. Okay if I ask you for a recommendation?
Stacy Lynn Staples", is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
Thanks, I just googled her and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get.
You two should stick different finance this is a gross over simplification economic policies and history
📟
fix your grammar, your statement doesn't make sense.