Warren Buffett: Market Timing Is Both Impossible And Stupid

Warren Buffett has benefited from lucky timing when he has made stock market investments, but he insists that this has only ever been luck, rather than an attempt at market timing. Further, he suggests that those attempting market timing are extraordinarily foolish.

[@edwardsroba]

He’s is right, but WB is clearly comfortable seeing the value of his portfolio suffer 50% drawdowns, where as the vast majority of people are not, and would either panic sell and make huge losses, or get very sick from worry. Therefore the underperformance that comes from managing volatility is well worth it for 90% of average joes

[@bluegtturbo]

I agree. I think there's a lot to be said for piling in after a big drop. But of course if one is already fully invested then it's a different story.

[@pb8582]

If you can't see 50% loss you should not invest

[@edwardsroba]

@@pb8582 thats naive

[@scarfo441]

No he's not..he has never ever been right about timing the market...

[@eddierosario1537]

Exactly if you don’t have any money invest but a stock is down 40% that’s the time to go all in depending on the stock that you invest in. Majority of us can’t lose that much when we’re already have had invested

[@jaybro3713]

I learnt from you and other professionals like you. But i my opinion timing the the market is extremely important. Sometimes waiting atleast few months to buy or exit may change the whole story.

[@dwen5065]

He’s right, but I still look at charts to get an idea of big movements, like this past year. Charts incorporate the fundamentals as well as the zeitgeist. In any case, I got out last April and wondering when to get back in. I just invest in market averages. If I break even getting back in I’ll be happy. Right now I’m still 5-10% up. All in 401K account so no tax consequences. I have to feel like I have some control over my finances. If I was younger I’d let it ride, but not from the vantage of mid 60’s.

[@matthijskkr]

Well you should only read charts to know what stocks have been doing, nothing else. The cart doesn't tell you anything except for history

[@faithhopecharity2843]

@@matthijskkr Yet "history rhymes", -Mark Twain (probably)

[@dwen5065]

@@matthijskkr I know what you’re saying but you seem to simply be repeating something you’ve heard not adding anything new. You only know anything by it’s past. You only know people by what they’ve done. Do you assume you have no idea what’s going to happen tomorrow because all you know about is yesterdays?

[@matthijskkr]

@@dwen5065 Well a chart tells you what the market price was over a period of time. It does not tell you the current economic situation or what is going to happen. That's what you use the news for. But the chart itself says nothing.
Charts don't incorporate the fundamentals.

[@dwen5065]

@@matthijskkr charts incorporate everything because they are the sum total of what produced all the prices for the day. I am not saying charts predict the future. If you’re young stay in stocks because growth and greed are historical human trends that will likely cont for the foreseeable future, leading to ever increasing stock prices (over the long haul). But human nature (aka the business cycle) are somewhat predictable and give some insights to tops and bottoms. Not the absolute top and bottom, but the human reaction to these events.

[@yaminatoday1151]

Lol. What's up with the peanut brittle and the See's candies? I take it, they aren't advertising for those companies, are they?

[@erickminor]

They own See's candies.

[@DarkoFitCoach]

your question shows u have no idea who warren buffet is

[@CSUSBGOLF]

Meanwhile he has $150 Billion in cash. If he wasn’t trying to time something, most of that would be invested in stocks or businesses.

[@bigscores7237]

He's not timing in the TA sense most use that word though. He's simply looking at value criteria and waiting for his lower bounds to be crossed.

[@JPBuffet]

He doesn’t even have $150 Billion in cash, that net worth not cash. Also bro has been investing for like 70 years. Compound interest and smart investments over 70 works wonders. Doesn’t hurt being able to use others (shareholders) capital to help in that endeavor 😂

[@CSUSBGOLF]

@@JPBuffet Berkshire had $33.67 Billion in Cash and Cash Equivalents and $129.61 Billion in T-Bills as of end of year 2023. Read the annual report.

[@JPBuffet]

@@CSUSBGOLF Misunderstood your point. I thought you meant Warren specifically, not Berkshire, my bad.

[@funfungerman8401]

you cant compare a company with the individual investor, and especially something as berkshire hathaway since they invest in many companys that arent listed on the stock exchange... and for this you need cash/bank @@CSUSBGOLF

[@MrSuperbluesky]

“Getting enough for your money”

[@JBulsa]

9 times there were over -50% drop investments

[@DarkoFitCoach]

and many more times it went up just as much or more, in agregate sp500 is rising

[@mannyyankey64]

Jim Simons hedge fund performance has proved him wrong

[@NORCAL7777]

😂😂😂

[@Survival_Shelter]

He's taking ages to say nothing.