@Michael Jefferson the Brexit party will be lucky to get 5 seats, my prediction is 2. in most cases, even in the north, is a bin full of second places. more likely, but not discussed, is a coalition with Swinson supporting the Tories in exchange for a second referendum which offers remain or Norway+ with all campaigning for remain.
mrLoftladder The Idea of Coalition with the Tories is toxic amongst the Lib Dem membership, if swinson were to suggest it she’d be out of a job within hours. A coalition with Labour would be more likely considering both have at one point endorsed a second referendum
@@thomasthornton2002 - She said on the Andrew Neil programme yesterday that she would never consider joining forces with Labour & said Corbyn & Johnson were both not fit to be PM.
It just amuses me, given how when we had the electoral reform referendum almost ten years ago, everyone was saying it would be the end of stable, majority governments. Hmmm....
besides it wasn't a vote on truly proportional repesentation (an end to the adversarial style of parliment the conservatives love) it was on the alternative vote system (a preferential voting system)
@Cliff Smith Yes that is true under some proportional voting systems; there are some systems however that do provide a say over individual candidates, such as AV and the single transferable vote (STV).
I will be voting Labour this time. I've seen our proud towns and cities get wiped out by this Conservative government. I voted to leave the EU, and still on balance support Brexit. But there's so much more to this election. I see that Labour are offering real investment into our industries and science sectors, leveling up our schools and specialist training that are falling behind foreign competition, fixing our decrepit trains (they used to be better), giving workers back their dignity (I know that full time work is more depressing than ever now) and giving Britain it's confidence back. I implore my fellow Brexit supporters to actually think about what the CONservatives are planning to do. They've been in for 9 years and it's getting worse. Wouldn't have thought I would have said this even a week ago, but I'm excited for real change under Labour again.
I think with this channel, plus their sister newspaper, The Economist they have a pretty sweet output to rival anyone. However, they could do more on science and technology.
@@BigHenFor ....that right? Like their early warning about the 2008 crash? Oh, wait a minute. .....there wasn't one, because along with all establishment banking they were clueless until the event started unfolding under them. Watch Max Keiser, use Kitco apps, watch their TH-cam channel, watch Peter Schiff and be ahead instead of trailing behind.
A wonderful Westminster/London bubble perspective. Essential viewing for Chelsea woman and those who have never ventured further north than Swiss Cottage.
4:50 - fascinating. In this sense, the Brexit party needs to stay quiet this election to not detract from the unity of the Tory’s. The Leave side of the GE needs to be united to win.
A surrender deal is not Brexit, no matter how hard Boris try's to sell it as such. The Tory Party is riddled with remainers, you will hear a lot for Boris in the coming weeks on how he believes in what his voters believe, but sorry we aren't fooled. Dead in ditch ring any bells,
@@Roskellan I have to agree, I could only vote for the Brexit party, with Boris/May treaty we will be tied for ever. There is no way the tories will go for WTO in a year, otherwise they could have done it on the 31st Oct. There were ways round the Benn bill.
I think the Brexit party is seriously underestimated. They have already been revolutionary in their growth rate. Boris is keeping his deal on the table, and that is a major concern to most Brexiteers.
With a remain parliament it is difficult for Boris to get anything done. More votes for the Brexit Party will be a vote for these remain parties by default. The only way is to vote Conservative on 12th December 🇬🇧
FT and their analyst is for Labour - that is why. Labour very well may be devoured by Brexit and LibDems for leave and remain. Watch for the polarization. Good Luck Labour pretending that Brexit isnt really impotant.
You have exactly proved why people believe Brexiteers are complete swamp donkeys. You do not listen to facts or expert advice. If you vote Brexit Party, you'll split the Tory / BP vote, which makes a Labour majority more likely - hence a Labour win.
@@Guy-ns1hk I'm a hardcore leaver, but I have to say he's right. In the Brexit groups i'm in, so many people are stubbornly voting the Brexit party (admittedly it's not all by a long shot). And even when we tell them it'll split the vote and let Corbyn in they stubbornly refuse to listen. I think some of them are a bit stupid and don't get it. i'd never normally back a remainer under any cercumstances but i'm so annoyed by their stupidity as are a lot of us in the group, that I don't care, i'll say what i need to say. My only hope, is that through their sheer stubornness, their votes put Boris above labour so they win the election but don't quite get first past the post so are forced into a coalition. Then i'll be sionging the praises of those stubborn Brexit party voters lolol.
In the hung parlialment discussion, why do they say only Labour can find coalition partners... how about Conservative with Brexit party - they seem natural allies to me ?!
The Boris deal is a remain deal - Boris will not find any assistance from Nigel with that in his manifesto. All the main parties are remain. If you believe in your Country the Bexit Party is your only vote in this election.
Tory + Brexit Party is the most powerful argument and would finally end this nightmare. But is he a Real Brexiteer or does he put Party before Country? BJ's Treaty IS NOT BREXIT. I'm voting BP as are everyone i know. I live in Worthing West Sussex just for clarification.
@Paul Osc Slots He comes across as a deal maker.. someone who is happy to put his personal opinion aside to gain consensus. Whether that works in these fractured times we will have to see.
@Paul Osc SlotsIf you had read the Labour manifesto it would be clear why he has opposed the deals so far put forward. If you want to vote for a person who has removed workers rights security from his bill go ahead, I and many others won't.
@Paul Osc Slots I think it's you that makes it up. The Labour manifesto was quite explicit on the Brexit deal that Labour support. Just because it may not be the one you want doesn't mean that they should support any other type of deal. I do my own research and it was obvious in April that the Tories would just run down the clock to October. They were surprised that Parliament actually found some teeth and insisted they do their job, but of course at that late stage the only deal left to Johnson was the one originally rejected by the Tories in 2018 at chequers. Johnson actually had the nerve to bring back a deal that was almost identical too the one over which he had resigned 12 months earlier, just worse, as he had removed the worker protection parts. I was older than 25 last century. Weird, I always used to vote Lib Dem, but after they betrayed that vote in 2010 I'll never vote for them again. Since then I voted Green but I'll probably vote Labour this time, because I believe the only way to lance the Brexit ulcer is another referendum (I'll be voting leave), where I expect leave to win again.
He's principled all right - He's a confessed Marxist, Anti-Capitalist. He changes his views on the EU with the wind and promotes himself with religious conviction over his party and his Country.
@@sheilabutterworth1418 Nigel, eh? Dear Nigel. The snake oil salesman who cares so much about his doting admirers that he refuses to refund the £100 they paid to stand as candidates. He saw them coming.
The smart thing for Nigel Farage to do would be strategic voting so that either a Brexit or a Conservative candidate take enough seats to ensure a majority in parliament that favour Brexit. THEN insist on a no-deal Brexit to get Brexit through parliament. Between the two parties they would be able to choose between Boris' deal or no-deal. I am not sure that no-deal would not be the cleaner way to go but it might be more disruptive. If trade between the UK and the EU is advantageous, even if it is spotty, it will get done in time.
Can the FT discuss Count Binface please? I enjoy your videos because you talk more sense than the Express and Daily Mail and people who talk about unicorns but you haven't discussed Count Binface.
Do not underestimate the Brexit Party. I would not be surprised to see them get a majority! People in many countries are fed up with traditional parties who have been ineffective over many decades.
My prediction: Labour will be the largest party 20 - 30 seats short of a majority. They'll refuse a coalition with the SNP. And McDonnell's 'take it or leave it' plan for confidence and supply will run the Country. I will be voting Labour in spite of this premonition. We live in interesting times. P.S. We need proportional representation.
I can't see that happening. What everyone is forgetting is that Boris can actually campaign, and not only did Theresa May not do that but was an uncharacteristic bland remainer. Corbyn now has a real challenger, his party is divided over brexit, and therefore can't see him winning. And I'm not saying Boris will have 400 seats but he'll probably secure a majority and Labour will fall to around 200.
He talks about the only way to obtain brexit is with a Conservative victory but that will not be brexit with Boris promising the awful May 2 Treaty deal
Time you read the new treaty and understand what exactly it is we are doing . It's not Brexit . Good luck Brexit party your the only true democratic party willing to uphold the leave vote . God bless
This isn't just about Brexit its about democracy. A lot of people are very angry that the result of the referendum has been trampled all over for three and a half years. Leavers don't want a second referendum because the last one hasn't been honored yet. Get outside London and there are a lot of labour leave voters that may well vote Tory for the first time in their lives.Libdems may take the remainer vote but Farage is not stupid either, he will make some form of tactical agreement with the Tories. Corbyn has sat on the fence over Brexit and is very unpopular with voters. I don't think you will see a hung parliament this time, sorry remainers, I'm sure you will see a Tory landslide victory.
This is the problem with Homo Sapiens if they're left to their own devices. Every so often the strong, useless half of the species will kills off the weaker, useful half.
One thing ur forgetting is he boris factor boris was born to campaign that’s what he is skilled at and he’s a better campaigner than Corbin or the Lib Dem’s
Unfortunately he is incredibly skilled at campaigning, mostly as he tells everyone what they want to hear with no regard for the truth, reality or principle. The question is, will this be exposed in the heat of an election campaign? Or will it be brexit campaign 2.0?
Ha ha ha ha When Boris Johnson went "Up North" He was politely asked to leave by someone in Leeds, shouted at in Doncaster, heckled in Rotherham and waffled so long at police trainees event one keeled over, (and he still carried on waffling with her lying on the ground) and absolutely no one could make any sense of what he was supposed to be saying. If he continues to campaign in Yorkshire even the safe Conservative seats in the north Yorkshire will declare UDI and vote for the Yorkshire party.
Due to the pathetic first past the post system this is a real problem for conservatives if the Brexit party stands as the leave vote will be watered down and a remainer no will get in. Boris needs to work wiith farage, once Brexit is done Garage will pull out of politics. Somehow I don't think people will give Brexit party a run as their only manifesto is leaving the EU and not running a country
In 2015, everyone was saying "I can't see how the Tories can possibly gain seats and get a majority", and yet they did. Odds for that were, I think, about 8/1, and they were taking on a relatively moderate Labour. Now the odds are 10/11 with some bookies, and Corbyn and Momentum are simply too extreme for many who would have voted for Miliband. Additionally, there are many Remain voters who accept that Brexit must nonetheless be delivered in order to maintain our democracy; are they really going to trust Labour to do so? It does depend somewhat on how aggressive the Brexit Party are, but if I had to make a prediction, I would forecast a narrow Tory majority as the most likely outcome. Otherwise, almost certainly, the Tories will have the most seats by quite a way, but they would find it difficult to form a government.
@@TheSpiritOfTheTimes Him and his right hand man are committed socialists who want to see the overthrow of capitalism. That's pretty extreme don't you think?
@@Charlie_Ses Any normal, rational thinking human wants the "overthrow of capitalism". But that is a slogan half-wit, his propsed policies would finally place the UK into the realm of decent, functioning continental countries, and farther away from the US lol
@@TheSpiritOfTheTimes Any normal human wants the overthrow of capitalism? Eh?? Quite the opposite!!! Can you give one example of a successful, thriving socialist society? Serious man, that's an extreme position to take. Socialism is seriously bad news!!
@Fusilier Thresher Emulate with that? Back to school fuckwit. Yeah, people like the feeling of being part of the community and striving towards a common goal in solidarity, I'm sure you have the odd pathology who doesn't.
One factor you're missing: Boris has appeal. I don't get it. But he was Mayor of London 2x. London is a left-wing, young & ethnic city. It's all very unpredictable.
@@DV-dt9sq No. Plenty of intelligent people like him and Corbyn. But interestingly he had appeal IMO to the more Kensington and Chelsea remainer types. And obviously Londoners. Most of which probably won't vote for him...imo.
Boris appeal is based on his unrulyness. Whether it's his hair or his rebellion against Parliament, that has its own speak to those disillusioned with most politicians
@Anglo Commando : I don't agree. In my opinion, Boris showed no stability whatsoever. Constantly lying, showing no exact plan (just empty wishes and promises that I can also give), showing utter ignorance on laws... He is irresponsible child, not an adult. No stability there in my view.
@@FinancialTimes :) here are some ideas. In no particular order. 1) spain and catalan. Pre Franco through Franco leading up to today. Is it Nationalism seperatist movement tarted up as left liberal movement or is Spain the bad actor? Will it happen will it not? 2) the EU : how it really works, who the key players are, how it is changing, possible futures, what is the ideal end goal and what are the barriers to get there ? Could it ever be like a USA or I guess China. 3) Russia seemingly growing influence in Africa and middles east. 4) predictions? Where would the next super cosmopolitan service super hub be if it isn't london? So Service industries Financial centre , corporate international law, media etc... Amsterdam? Paris? Frankfurt? Why and how it would happen. All I can think of in a rush. U think the EU thing could be interesting. I think we all could do with a lot of education around it.
I think the Tories will do similar or better than last time, they are cutting out the unpopular MPs from the running. Alan Duncan and Nicky Morgan aren't running in my area
The only way to get Brexit is to vote Brexit. The establishment will be trying very hard to turn this into a Tory/ Labour contest (on traditional lines) , if they succeed than we will remain as we are now, only stuck in the EU forever. Leave the remainers to split their vote between Tory/ Labour, 17.4 million voted to leave , we are in the majority.
@@Roskellan Would you not agree that although Leave proved the largest in a binary question, some people are more committed to it than others, just as some remainers proved more emollient than others.
andy smith use my loaf hahaha as always your intel is a joke literally. The Brexit party will never get enough votes. Even if they get 10% of the vote they probably won’t get any MPs. Due to there supporters being spread so thin. If your goal is for the UK to stay in the EU the Brexit party is the way to go.
@@tomtdh4903 "your intel is a joke literally"what a ponce.They are not thin on the ground,wait and see what happens.Your face expression will be priceless like someone shat in your handbag! lol
Read the manifestos, consider where your 'x' should go (oh and then check the likely multitude of tactical voting apps and web pages, the media hype is accurate). And people think proportional representation is too complicated?
In 2016 we voted Leave. If we want another referendum, there should be three options on the ballot paper; Leave with no deal - Which is what The Brexit party want. Leave with Boris' deal - Which is what Conservatives want. Leave with a new deal - Which is what Labour want. All equal Leave! However, what we have got is an election, which nobody wants.
@Peek We just need to kick Brexit into the long grass until it dies a slow death. And then we'll hire a bus, write that we have left the EU on the side and drive around the country. The cretins who voted for this crap will believe it because they will believe anything.
Boris is going for an election as he has nothing to lose. Even another hung Parliament is no worse than the current situation he is in. If he loses, he retains his polarity among those who did vote for his party, and may hope to retain the Tory leadership (an even longer shot in my opinion). And if he wins, that's the jackpot.
I believe a coalition is the most likely outcome, despite what the Lib Dems are saying now, when the moment arrives, we will hear the usual talk of the national interest etc, the price for the Lib Dems support will be a second referendum
So the Brexit Party might stymy Brexit by capturing enough of the swing away from labour in the midlands to deny tories these seats. Not a problem if the UK had preferential voting. I wonder if this measure is considered in coming years?
@@angelakadeer1565 Thanks. And as a foreigner I have belatedly become aware of the failed AV vote in 2011. That was a missed opportunity. Whilst no electoral system is perfect, I think the Australian and NZ systems have much to commend themselves to the UK. Instead of a "big bang" approach which scares people, a program of sequenced reforms rolled out over 3 or 4 elections, pausing to review each change - is a good way of keeping the UK electoral system fit for purpose.
Boris must be dying to strangle Nigel stopping him to tell the world what has been agreed in Brussels. Unfortunately Farage is one of the few most effective communicators known to mankind. The more the public knows about the real content of his "deal", the number of voters deserting Tory Party will increase exponentially. Boris is simply far outclassed by Farage. FACT
You forgot to write a Lib Dum win, Jo Swinson has said she is going to be the next PM. I think this has been confirmed by reading tea leaves or an octopus has predicted it, don't quote me on that though.
Jo Swinson is the best thing that could happen for the Tory and Labour Party. The Brexit Party is relying on us - vote the Brexit Party if you want to leave the EU.
Can anyone give feedback on the following : If you want a communist anti democratic society vote Labour or Lib If you do not want that but you do not want Tory then vote Brexit Party If you are conservative Brexiteer and feel betrayed vote Brexit Party. If you are a Remainer Tory that get more out of EU than Democracy or an independent Britain then voting Labour/Lib is a better option to secure what you want. If you are a Remainer Conservative that is patriotic democratic and party proud voting Conservative won't save you against the Labour/Lib threat. But votind Brexit Party will give Conservatives time to regroup over 5 years and get connected to their non feudal membership. Feedback on this please
If the Brexit Party does not win this election , we will end up in the EU forever. Then it wont matter what Party you vote for - they wont have any meaningful power to do anything, anyway.
The Tories and Labour have both claimed the middle ground, but with Brexit there is no middle ground. Only 20% of voters like Boris' new (old) Brexit in name only deal with the EU. No one thinks another referendum is a good idea except the Labour party, who still don't know what they want. Brexit is actually about leave, or remain, and the voters sorted that out in 2016. The Brexit Party and the Lib Dems now represent leave and remain, and they are going to eat into the Tory and the Labour vote. The Tories and Labour don't yet realise just how sick of them both the British voters are. They are about to find out.
As an Australian, I think your analysis misses a few key starting points. 1 Blame for The Shambles of the past three years will fall to Remainer's in the eyes of all people who believe the 2016 referendum must be honoured. 2 The public intuitively know this election is really about Brexit. A labour campaign ducking that challenge will be easily profiled as more Remainer obstruction of the public will. 3 I suspect people are seriously underestimating the Brexit party's ability to outright win pro Brexit Labour seats when their platform will essentially be public people, real people, going to Parliament to see the Public's will done. We have seen this shift here in political allegiances in Australia and we saw it in the US. As an aside the US also saw it when the Republican party first came to power under Lincoln in a time of similar flux. It is true that first past the post makes it harder for the Brexit Party, but I think the Public intuitively know this election is a watershed moment for a democracy where the ordinary citizen still has a genuine say. On Corbyn, he is a strong campaigner notwithstanding his polling, but his achilles heel is that his party has a very different goal to his and as an integrity campaigner this will weaken him significantly.
Your point 2 is contradicted by the way the electorate responded to the Labour Party's socialist agenda at the last election. May wanted it to be about Brexit, Labour hammered her already small majority by talking about other things. I agree that much of the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP) is anti Corbyn, but I would disagree if you mean that represents the views of their national membership, who did actually elect him as party leader after all. You are correct to say that that creates a dilemma for Corbyn as he tried to stay loyal to the national membership but also carry the PLP with him to make that work. I see this as being more of an issue of conflicting loyalties than of integrity
Of course, there's always the possibility that there is a hung Parliament with a Remain(ish) majority that enacts a new Referendum... and Brexit wins the Referendum. This one could run and run....
The Brexit Party is the only Party that will get us out of the EU. All other routes lead to remain and EU control and domination. Another Referendum would have us stay in the EU (not that I can see why leavers should pay any attention to it - well they didn't when it went the other way). Another referendum would have us remain in the EU because they would ask another question carefully skewed to get the answer they want - I tell you we a have a corrupt parliament of liars and cheats, puppets of the EU through coercion and bribery.
Except by running against the Tories, it's more likely the Brexit party will deny the Tories a majority and end up with the exact result they don't want (a Remainer dominated Parliament). The Brexit Party can't win a majority by itself (in fact, I doubt it will win any seats at all) so by running the likely effect is the exact opposite of what they want.
Take our survey and tell us what you think of our TH-cam channel: bit.ly/33SJ8AI.
What to expect?
Simple!
A hung parliament and a new demand for an extension!
I hope no
😂👍
@Michael Jefferson the Brexit party will be lucky to get 5 seats, my prediction is 2. in most cases, even in the north, is a bin full of second places. more likely, but not discussed, is a coalition with Swinson supporting the Tories in exchange for a second referendum which offers remain or Norway+ with all campaigning for remain.
mrLoftladder The Idea of Coalition with the Tories is toxic amongst the Lib Dem membership, if swinson were to suggest it she’d be out of a job within hours. A coalition with Labour would be more likely considering both have at one point endorsed a second referendum
@@thomasthornton2002 - She said on the Andrew Neil programme yesterday that she would never consider joining forces with Labour & said Corbyn & Johnson were both not fit to be PM.
I hope this ends better than Game of Thrones
😂😂😂😂
Well, Northern Ireland is likely to catch on fire, so that's the same as GoT.
That’s a guarantee
You can expect a wedding invitation
With Boris the Broken in charge? Unlikely.
If everyone watched this people would have a much better understanding of how mental this election is.
along with the FT.
You mean Johnson, Corbyn, Farrage and these two clowns?
@@Ron.S. Dont forget Swinson.
Thom TH-cam she’s not a key player. You also have the looney party...
The dope smoking crusties are saying it so it must be true
It just amuses me, given how when we had the electoral reform referendum almost ten years ago, everyone was saying it would be the end of stable, majority governments. Hmmm....
Urgh, don't remind me of that lying and illogical clusterfuck.
besides it wasn't a vote on truly proportional repesentation (an end to the adversarial style of parliment the conservatives love) it was on the alternative vote system (a preferential voting system)
@Cliff Smith Yes that is true under some proportional voting systems; there are some systems however that do provide a say over individual candidates, such as AV and the single transferable vote (STV).
@Cliff Smith Or a referendum with several options, under the AV/STV voting system? XD
@Cliff Smith It was a joke, but I agree. XD
Best thing to do on the 12th December 2019 is go to your poling station and vote .
...Conservative.
@@DinethCat no...
...Tommy Robinson.
James Sempy You want to vote for a real Brexit? Support a second referendum!
Peugeot David The King Everyone is anti Jewish... even the Jewish 😂
I will be voting Labour this time. I've seen our proud towns and cities get wiped out by this Conservative government. I voted to leave the EU, and still on balance support Brexit. But there's so much more to this election. I see that Labour are offering real investment into our industries and science sectors, leveling up our schools and specialist training that are falling behind foreign competition, fixing our decrepit trains (they used to be better), giving workers back their dignity (I know that full time work is more depressing than ever now) and giving Britain it's confidence back. I implore my fellow Brexit supporters to actually think about what the CONservatives are planning to do. They've been in for 9 years and it's getting worse. Wouldn't have thought I would have said this even a week ago, but I'm excited for real change under Labour again.
I'm impressed with the FTs non written output. I wonder why they don't have ambitions to compete with Bloomberg, rather than sporadic videos on YT.
I think with this channel, plus their sister newspaper, The Economist they have a pretty sweet output to rival anyone. However, they could do more on science and technology.
I prefer the FT to The Economist because you just get the facts, and less opinion.
.......seriously, you bozos are impressed with this dinosaur, dressed up as social media Yee Haa?
@@BigHenFor ....that right? Like their early warning about the 2008 crash? Oh, wait a minute. .....there wasn't one, because along with all establishment banking they were clueless until the event started unfolding under them. Watch Max Keiser, use Kitco apps, watch their TH-cam channel, watch Peter Schiff and be ahead instead of trailing behind.
@@matthewbrooker Thanks for your input, Matthew. We'll keep that in mind for future commissioning.
A wonderful Westminster/London bubble perspective. Essential viewing for Chelsea woman and those who have never ventured further north than Swiss Cottage.
This has actually excited me a little..
Miranda Green - She's Lovely
"We're all DOOMED!" said Private Frazer.
Simon_k695 : Yes, I did.
There hasn't been any discussion about Count Binface, previously Lord Buckethead.
4:50 - fascinating. In this sense, the Brexit party needs to stay quiet this election to not detract from the unity of the Tory’s. The Leave side of the GE needs to be united to win.
A surrender deal is not Brexit, no matter how hard Boris try's to sell it as such. The Tory Party is riddled with remainers, you will hear a lot for Boris in the coming weeks on how he believes in what his voters believe, but sorry we aren't fooled. Dead in ditch ring any bells,
@@Roskellan I have to agree, I could only vote for the Brexit party, with Boris/May treaty we will be tied for ever. There is no way the tories will go for WTO in a year, otherwise they could have done it on the 31st Oct. There were ways round the Benn bill.
No they need to keep on being idiots and make sure neither they or tories get in!
I think the Brexit party is seriously underestimated. They have already been revolutionary in their growth rate. Boris is keeping his deal on the table, and that is a major concern to most Brexiteers.
watching this now it shows just out of touch these media types were, and how wrong the comments below were.it shows they knew absolutely nothing
When ppl feel insulted by an analysis of the different outcomes...
I was just scrolling through thinking that
Because it’s clearly not an analysis, it’s essentially just a video to steer people to vote labour.
@@willosborne5590 Do you seriously think that? All they did is dissect the way the election results may go?
@@willosborne5590 Do you honestly think the FT would be pro-Corbyn? You complete swamp donkey.
Lol swamp donkey. That’s a new one. Time will tell
With a remain parliament it is difficult for Boris to get anything done. More votes for the Brexit Party will be a vote for these remain parties by default. The only way is to vote Conservative on 12th December 🇬🇧
Cause voting tory has worked out so well for the last 10 years hasn't it. It's time for change
Wow, how super well made! Thank you!
Thanks for watching!
Hang on why is it that brexit party can’t pick up seats? All they can do is upset? I think they can win seats. Our six votes will be for brexit party.
FT and their analyst is for Labour - that is why. Labour very well may be devoured by Brexit and LibDems for leave and remain. Watch for the polarization. Good Luck Labour pretending that Brexit isnt really impotant.
they are in for a big shock my friend
andy smith I sincerely hope so. We should have learnt by now that these shows and polls are all about trying to shape the outcome.
@@gemrouf Brexit is a word, it's not actually all that important. Even to those still hot for Bojo.
Interesting analysis. Thank you for these uploads.
Clear as mud. Best bet is Brexit Party.
You have exactly proved why people believe Brexiteers are complete swamp donkeys. You do not listen to facts or expert advice. If you vote Brexit Party, you'll split the Tory / BP vote, which makes a Labour majority more likely - hence a Labour win.
Cleg Smegson And you have confirmed that remoaners are sheep and do what they’re told by the tv.
@@Guy-ns1hk I'm a hardcore leaver, but I have to say he's right. In the Brexit groups i'm in, so many people are stubbornly voting the Brexit party (admittedly it's not all by a long shot). And even when we tell them it'll split the vote and let Corbyn in they stubbornly refuse to listen. I think some of them are a bit stupid and don't get it. i'd never normally back a remainer under any cercumstances but i'm so annoyed by their stupidity as are a lot of us in the group, that I don't care, i'll say what i need to say. My only hope, is that through their sheer stubornness, their votes put Boris above labour so they win the election but don't quite get first past the post so are forced into a coalition. Then i'll be sionging the praises of those stubborn Brexit party voters lolol.
In the hung parlialment discussion, why do they say only Labour can find coalition partners... how about Conservative with Brexit party - they seem natural allies to me ?!
The Boris deal is a remain deal - Boris will not find any assistance from Nigel with that in his manifesto. All the main parties are remain. If you believe in your Country the Bexit Party is your only vote in this election.
@@Roskellan In what way is "The Boris deal" a remain deal ?
I like this video, but I would suggest getting a 3rd member of the team who has legible handwriting.
And someone who can spell the word LaboUr ...
Tory + Brexit Party is the most powerful argument and would finally end this nightmare. But is he a Real Brexiteer or does he put Party before Country? BJ's Treaty IS NOT BREXIT. I'm voting BP as are everyone i know. I live in Worthing West Sussex just for clarification.
They won't share power officialy
Seen through Corbyn? No follow up to what he meant. One thing you can say about JC is that he's principled
@Paul Osc Slots He comes across as a deal maker.. someone who is happy to put his personal opinion aside to gain consensus. Whether that works in these fractured times we will have to see.
@Paul Osc SlotsIf you had read the Labour manifesto it would be clear why he has opposed the deals so far put forward. If you want to vote for a person who has removed workers rights security from his bill go ahead, I and many others won't.
@Paul Osc Slots I think it's you that makes it up. The Labour manifesto was quite explicit on the Brexit deal that Labour support. Just because it may not be the one you want doesn't mean that they should support any other type of deal. I do my own research and it was obvious in April that the Tories would just run down the clock to October. They were surprised that Parliament actually found some teeth and insisted they do their job, but of course at that late stage the only deal left to Johnson was the one originally rejected by the Tories in 2018 at chequers. Johnson actually had the nerve to bring back a deal that was almost identical too the one over which he had resigned 12 months earlier, just worse, as he had removed the worker protection parts.
I was older than 25 last century. Weird, I always used to vote Lib Dem, but after they betrayed that vote in 2010 I'll never vote for them again. Since then I voted Green but I'll probably vote Labour this time, because I believe the only way to lance the Brexit ulcer is another referendum (I'll be voting leave), where I expect leave to win again.
He's principled all right - He's a confessed Marxist, Anti-Capitalist. He changes his views on the EU with the wind and promotes himself with religious conviction over his party and his Country.
What about Brexit Party!
A Z they are not standing Tory seats so at the most extreme could only win 300 seats. But to do that would have to wipe out all other parties.
What about them? They believe in unicorns and they think the world's biggest and most successful trading bloc is the Fourth Reich.
Nigel can only win seats. In the new Government. He carnt win. GE.
@@sheilabutterworth1418 Not enough people would vote for Farage because not everyone is a swivel-eyed loon who believes in unicorns.
@@sheilabutterworth1418 Nigel, eh? Dear Nigel. The snake oil salesman who cares so much about his doting admirers that he refuses to refund the £100 they paid to stand as candidates.
He saw them coming.
The smart thing for Nigel Farage to do would be strategic voting so that either a Brexit or a Conservative candidate take enough seats to ensure a majority in parliament that favour Brexit. THEN insist on a no-deal Brexit to get Brexit through parliament. Between the two parties they would be able to choose between Boris' deal or no-deal. I am not sure that no-deal would not be the cleaner way to go but it might be more disruptive. If trade between the UK and the EU is advantageous, even if it is spotty, it will get done in time.
Better analysis than anything I’ve ever seen on the BBC, another reason to abolish the license fee 🤦♂️
...With a pen and a pad. Bring back This Week with Portillo or Bercow as host
Great video, looking forward to more videos like this
Thank you so much. We'll keep that in mind.
Thank you FT for one of the least politically biased analyses on recent UK politics and Brexit!
Thank you. Let us know what other topics you'd like us to tackle. We appreciate your feedback.
Good video. Thanks.
Can the FT discuss Count Binface please? I enjoy your videos because you talk more sense than the Express and Daily Mail and people who talk about unicorns but you haven't discussed Count Binface.
Very good spin!
Do not underestimate the Brexit Party. I would not be surprised to see them get a majority! People in many countries are fed up with traditional parties who have been ineffective over many decades.
I actually got what these folks said. First time.
Happy days!
My prediction: Labour will be the largest party 20 - 30 seats short of a majority. They'll refuse a coalition with the SNP. And McDonnell's 'take it or leave it' plan for confidence and supply will run the Country.
I will be voting Labour in spite of this premonition. We live in interesting times.
P.S. We need proportional representation.
Very hopeful. With Corbyn Waffling about Brexit. It doesn't look good for labour.
I can't see that happening. What everyone is forgetting is that Boris can actually campaign, and not only did Theresa May not do that but was an uncharacteristic bland remainer. Corbyn now has a real challenger, his party is divided over brexit, and therefore can't see him winning.
And I'm not saying Boris will have 400 seats but he'll probably secure a majority and Labour will fall to around 200.
@@acegarcia3719
Labour will do well to hold onto 200 seats.
😂😂😂😂😂😂
@Paul Osc Slotshaha. I think you may have a gambling problem. I recommend you stay away from the tables or work in the city.
Fantastic piece, really enjoy these butcher paper brainstorms
He talks about the only way to obtain brexit is with a Conservative victory but that will not be brexit with Boris promising the awful May 2 Treaty deal
beanz meanz heinz!
It is time for the Brexit party to put up or shut up.
Shut up is better
Time you read the new treaty and understand what exactly it is we are doing . It's not Brexit . Good luck Brexit party your the only true democratic party willing to uphold the leave vote . God bless
The Brexit Party as it stands is all that stands in the way of EU domination and rule.
This isn't just about Brexit its about democracy. A lot of people are very angry that the result of the referendum has been trampled all over for three and a half years. Leavers don't want a second referendum because the last one hasn't been honored yet. Get outside London and there are a lot of labour leave voters that may well vote Tory for the first time in their lives.Libdems may take the remainer vote but Farage is not stupid either, he will make some form of tactical agreement with the Tories. Corbyn has sat on the fence over Brexit and is very unpopular with voters. I don't think you will see a hung parliament this time, sorry remainers, I'm sure you will see a Tory landslide victory.
Only No Deal Leave will honour the 2016 referendum.
Do not use postal votes...
@Bloodshot Eyes Because if you trust a system that let fraud on more then once.... Postal votes have been subject to fraud were people got jailed....
T May (Conservative) lost her working majority in the (2017) election, due to the changes when they outlined in their future social welfare actions.
T May possibly the worst PM in living History has a lot to answer for.
Trump just boosted Corbyn's popularity today.
Great video guys. It's so good to see intelligent neutral discussion on our politics for once.
Thank you William. We're glad you appreciated this video.
They should just get both parties to fight to the death and the surviving party chooses what happens
This is the problem with Homo Sapiens if they're left to their own devices. Every so often the strong, useless half of the species will kills off the weaker, useful half.
One thing ur forgetting is he boris factor boris was born to campaign that’s what he is skilled at and he’s a better campaigner than Corbin or the Lib Dem’s
So you want a pm full of empty promises? Except for Brexit what's he got!!?
Unfortunately he is incredibly skilled at campaigning, mostly as he tells everyone what they want to hear with no regard for the truth, reality or principle. The question is, will this be exposed in the heat of an election campaign? Or will it be brexit campaign 2.0?
Ha ha ha ha When Boris Johnson went "Up North" He was politely asked to leave by someone in Leeds, shouted at in Doncaster, heckled in Rotherham and waffled so long at police trainees event one keeled over, (and he still carried on waffling with her lying on the ground) and absolutely no one could make any sense of what he was supposed to be saying. If he continues to campaign in Yorkshire even the safe Conservative seats in the north Yorkshire will declare UDI and vote for the Yorkshire party.
Due to the pathetic first past the post system this is a real problem for conservatives if the Brexit party stands as the leave vote will be watered down and a remainer no will get in.
Boris needs to work wiith farage, once Brexit is done Garage will pull out of politics.
Somehow I don't think people will give Brexit party a run as their only manifesto is leaving the EU and not running a country
hopefully [ to the 1st para]
In 2015, everyone was saying "I can't see how the Tories can possibly gain seats and get a majority", and yet they did. Odds for that were, I think, about 8/1, and they were taking on a relatively moderate Labour. Now the odds are 10/11 with some bookies, and Corbyn and Momentum are simply too extreme for many who would have voted for Miliband. Additionally, there are many Remain voters who accept that Brexit must nonetheless be delivered in order to maintain our democracy; are they really going to trust Labour to do so?
It does depend somewhat on how aggressive the Brexit Party are, but if I had to make a prediction, I would forecast a narrow Tory majority as the most likely outcome. Otherwise, almost certainly, the Tories will have the most seats by quite a way, but they would find it difficult to form a government.
Explain how Corbyn is "too extreme" though.
@@TheSpiritOfTheTimes Him and his right hand man are committed socialists who want to see the overthrow of capitalism. That's pretty extreme don't you think?
@@Charlie_Ses Any normal, rational thinking human wants the "overthrow of capitalism". But that is a slogan half-wit, his propsed policies would finally place the UK into the realm of decent, functioning continental countries, and farther away from the US lol
@@TheSpiritOfTheTimes Any normal human wants the overthrow of capitalism? Eh?? Quite the opposite!!! Can you give one example of a successful, thriving socialist society? Serious man, that's an extreme position to take. Socialism is seriously bad news!!
@Fusilier Thresher Emulate with that? Back to school fuckwit. Yeah, people like the feeling of being part of the community and striving towards a common goal in solidarity, I'm sure you have the odd pathology who doesn't.
What about keeping colour consistent?
Labours popularity here in the north east pit towns and villages has taken a beating most of the people I have talked too will be voting brexit party
One factor you're missing: Boris has appeal. I don't get it. But he was Mayor of London 2x. London is a left-wing, young & ethnic city.
It's all very unpredictable.
He has an appeal only to fools. Sorry.
@@DV-dt9sq No. Plenty of intelligent people like him and Corbyn.
But interestingly he had appeal IMO to the more Kensington and Chelsea remainer types. And obviously Londoners. Most of which probably won't vote for him...imo.
Boris appeal is based on his unrulyness. Whether it's his hair or his rebellion against Parliament, that has its own speak to those disillusioned with most politicians
@Anglo Commando : I don't agree. In my opinion, Boris showed no stability whatsoever. Constantly lying, showing no exact plan (just empty wishes and promises that I can also give), showing utter ignorance on laws... He is irresponsible child, not an adult. No stability there in my view.
We can't "STAY" in anything. We'l be subject to rules we have no decision-making power over. We have to negotiate a new CU between the UK and EU.
What's not to like. Love you guys 🤗
Thank you Sascha. Let us know what other stories you'd like to see.
@@FinancialTimes :) here are some ideas. In no particular order.
1) spain and catalan. Pre Franco through Franco leading up to today. Is it Nationalism seperatist movement tarted up as left liberal movement or is Spain the bad actor? Will it happen will it not?
2) the EU : how it really works, who the key players are, how it is changing, possible futures, what is the ideal end goal and what are the barriers to get there ? Could it ever be like a USA or I guess China.
3) Russia seemingly growing influence in Africa and middles east.
4) predictions? Where would the next super cosmopolitan service super hub be if it isn't london? So Service industries Financial centre , corporate international law, media etc... Amsterdam? Paris? Frankfurt? Why and how it would happen.
All I can think of in a rush. U think the EU thing could be interesting. I think we all could do with a lot of education around it.
She spell Labour wrong "labor"
Americanisms
I spell it ‘useless’
Would you like to vote Remain or for Brexit? [Brexit]
Error.
Would you like to vote for Norway Plus or Remain? [WTF?]
Vote Corbyn in socialism is awesome NHS what what
I think the Tories will do similar or better than last time, they are cutting out the unpopular MPs from the running. Alan Duncan and Nicky Morgan aren't running in my area
Not if they persist in supporting this surrender deal - that deal is not leaving the EU in any shape or form.
I'm not seeing this "The only way to get brexit is the Tory party". The last year or so isn't really backing this statement at all.
The only way to get Brexit is to vote Brexit. The establishment will be trying very hard to turn this into a Tory/ Labour contest (on traditional lines) , if they succeed than we will remain as we are now, only stuck in the EU forever. Leave the remainers to split their vote between Tory/ Labour, 17.4 million voted to leave , we are in the majority.
boris has a new treaty brino if i was british brexit party all the way
@@Roskellan Would you not agree that although Leave proved the largest in a binary question, some people are more committed to it than others, just as some remainers proved more emollient than others.
Nooobody expects the unexpected!
Why is Bojo not in ditch yet
Voting Troy! Boris is the only one getting Brexit done.
If Nigel farage splits the vote he will never be forgiven.
dont believe brexit done rubbish.Only Brexit party will deliver brexit,use your loaf and vote BP.
andy smith use my loaf hahaha as always your intel is a joke literally.
The Brexit party will never get enough votes. Even if they get 10% of the vote they probably won’t get any MPs. Due to there supporters being spread so thin.
If your goal is for the UK to stay in the EU the Brexit party is the way to go.
@@tomtdh4903 "your intel is a joke literally"what a ponce.They are not thin on the ground,wait and see what happens.Your face expression will be priceless like someone shat in your handbag! lol
Read the manifestos, consider where your 'x' should go (oh and then check the likely multitude of tactical voting apps and web pages, the media hype is accurate). And people think proportional representation is too complicated?
In 2016 we voted Leave. If we want another referendum, there should be three options on the ballot paper;
Leave with no deal - Which is what The Brexit party want.
Leave with Boris' deal - Which is what Conservatives want.
Leave with a new deal - Which is what Labour want.
All equal Leave!
However, what we have got is an election, which nobody wants.
Than you should give Scotland a right for 2nd independence referendum because they voted stay in EU same as northern ireland.
It all began in the beginning........
Voting Brexit Party is the only way to get Brexit - Tory Withdrawal Act is BRINO
Even a Tory majority may not be enough for Brexit. May had a majority but still had to call an election.
The Boris Deal is not Brexit, it is remain.
A second referendum without a proper leave option would be boycotted and would not be democratically sound....
My Prediction
Conservative 336
Labour 196
Liberal Democrats 47
SNP 45
DUP 8
(Sinn Fein 8)
Plaid Cyrmu 4
Brexit 2
Green 1
Aillance 1
Independent 1
Gov: Tory Majority
Whoa that's specific 😆
@@gavinbissell8847 I've messed with the online election model to make this, this isn't just random numbers off the top of my head.
Who is the independent?
@@trueriver1950 The northern Irish person who was a former Ulster unionist.
What seats are Brexit? Thurrock And Clacton?
Really hope the Conservatives pledge to privatise the BBC and end the licence fee
Brexit Season 5 is gonna be AWESOME
@Peek We just need to kick Brexit into the long grass until it dies a slow death. And then we'll hire a bus, write that we have left the EU on the side and drive around the country. The cretins who voted for this crap will believe it because they will believe anything.
We cannot fail, God is on our side.
I bet you my English teacher Miss Duncan is watching this
@m. well she is a teacher so either labour or lib dem
Boris is going for an election as he has nothing to lose. Even another hung Parliament is no worse than the current situation he is in.
If he loses, he retains his polarity among those who did vote for his party, and may hope to retain the Tory leadership (an even longer shot in my opinion).
And if he wins, that's the jackpot.
I believe a coalition is the most likely outcome, despite what the Lib Dems are saying now, when the moment arrives, we will hear the usual talk of the national interest etc, the price for the Lib Dems support will be a second referendum
So the Brexit Party might stymy Brexit by capturing enough of the swing away from labour in the midlands to deny tories these seats. Not a problem if the UK had preferential voting. I wonder if this measure is considered in coming years?
Only by the Brexit party, it is on their manifesto.
@@angelakadeer1565 Thanks. And as a foreigner I have belatedly become aware of the failed AV vote in 2011. That was a missed opportunity. Whilst no electoral system is perfect, I think the Australian and NZ systems have much to commend themselves to the UK. Instead of a "big bang" approach which scares people, a program of sequenced reforms rolled out over 3 or 4 elections, pausing to review each change - is a good way of keeping the UK electoral system fit for purpose.
Upload more videos like this ON TH-cam !! Thanks
Will do!
What about hung parliament where Brexit Party and Conservatives together are a majority? Will this not lead to a no-deal brexit?
Can you believe these two are speculating on what no-one can predict.
heresy
The horror
If things are predictable then there’s no need to speculate. Speculation is perfect for unpredictable situations.
They are providing structure to the uncertainty. Standard approach to decision making under uncertainty.
@@dweller6065 There is no stability in this, they're just making a hypothesis based on their own predictions. It is impossible to predict.
Lovely explanation :)
Has Workington given up his hat and taken to wearing a baseball hat? Does it have MBGA on the front?
Boris must be dying to strangle Nigel stopping him to tell the world what has been agreed in Brussels. Unfortunately Farage is one of the few most effective communicators known to mankind. The more the public knows about the real content of his "deal", the number of voters deserting Tory Party will increase exponentially. Boris is simply far outclassed by Farage. FACT
In summary. Help us flush a referendum down the drain.
Is a coalition between Johnson and Farage an option? Haven't heard anyone talking about it...
You forgot to write a Lib Dum win, Jo Swinson has said she is going to be the next PM. I think this has been confirmed by reading tea leaves or an octopus has predicted it, don't quote me on that though.
And they also forgot the possibility of a 36,000% increase in the Parliamentary Green Party leading to a GP govt. Clearly biased
Jo Swinson is the best thing that could happen for the Tory and Labour Party. The Brexit Party is relying on us - vote the Brexit Party if you want to leave the EU.
projection. thats all this is. dont be influenced (whichever side you are on)
Yep. Too early.
My expectation, and my fear, is that there will be a Lab / SNP coalition with LD / GN in support.
Can anyone give feedback on the following :
If you want a communist anti democratic society vote Labour or Lib
If you do not want that but you do not want Tory then vote Brexit Party
If you are conservative Brexiteer and feel betrayed vote Brexit Party.
If you are a Remainer Tory that get more out of EU than Democracy or an independent Britain then voting Labour/Lib is a better option to secure what you want.
If you are a Remainer Conservative that is patriotic democratic and party proud voting Conservative won't save you against the Labour/Lib threat. But votind Brexit Party will give Conservatives time to regroup over 5 years and get connected to their non feudal membership.
Feedback on this please
So one election in 2015, one in 2017, and one in 2019.
I guess the next one is 2021?
Ever since the Fixed Term Parliament Act came into force . . .
If the Brexit Party does not win this election , we will end up in the EU forever. Then it wont matter what Party you vote for - they wont have any meaningful power to do anything, anyway.
Seems a bit slanted
It wouldn't be slanted if Brexiteers were talking.
No, not slanted at all.
The Tories and Labour have both claimed the middle ground, but with Brexit there is no middle ground. Only 20% of voters like Boris' new (old) Brexit in name only deal with the EU. No one thinks another referendum is a good idea except the Labour party, who still don't know what they want. Brexit is actually about leave, or remain, and the voters sorted that out in 2016. The Brexit Party and the Lib Dems now represent leave and remain, and they are going to eat into the Tory and the Labour vote. The Tories and Labour don't yet realise just how sick of them both the British voters are. They are about to find out.
All that, and
d barely a mention of the DUP ????
Only 10 MPS out of 650, don't think they matter that much.
As an Australian, I think your analysis misses a few key starting points. 1 Blame for The Shambles of the past three years will fall to Remainer's in the eyes of all people who believe the 2016 referendum must be honoured. 2 The public intuitively know this election is really about Brexit. A labour campaign ducking that challenge will be easily profiled as more Remainer obstruction of the public will. 3 I suspect people are seriously underestimating the Brexit party's ability to outright win pro Brexit Labour seats when their platform will essentially be public people, real people, going to Parliament to see the Public's will done. We have seen this shift here in political allegiances in Australia and we saw it in the US. As an aside the US also saw it when the Republican party first came to power under Lincoln in a time of similar flux. It is true that first past the post makes it harder for the Brexit Party, but I think the Public intuitively know this election is a watershed moment for a democracy where the ordinary citizen still has a genuine say.
On Corbyn, he is a strong campaigner notwithstanding his polling, but his achilles heel is that his party has a very different goal to his and as an integrity campaigner this will weaken him significantly.
Your point 2 is contradicted by the way the electorate responded to the Labour Party's socialist agenda at the last election. May wanted it to be about Brexit, Labour hammered her already small majority by talking about other things.
I agree that much of the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP) is anti Corbyn, but I would disagree if you mean that represents the views of their national membership, who did actually elect him as party leader after all.
You are correct to say that that creates a dilemma for Corbyn as he tried to stay loyal to the national membership but also carry the PLP with him to make that work. I see this as being more of an issue of conflicting loyalties than of integrity
What was the budget for this video £1.99?
This accurate analysis that a Cummings/Johnson majority is unlikely seems missing from the broadcast media. Why is that?
Brexit party for the win.
L A B O U R is the correct spelling for Labour Party, lady !!! It's a Pommy Party, not a Yankee one.
Tbh I think it’s just poor handwriting you see the curve before the R is in a bit of a u shape.
Of course, there's always the possibility that there is a hung Parliament with a Remain(ish) majority that enacts a new Referendum... and Brexit wins the Referendum. This one could run and run....
The Brexit Party is the only Party that will get us out of the EU. All other routes lead to remain and EU control and domination. Another Referendum would have us stay in the EU (not that I can see why leavers should pay any attention to it - well they didn't when it went the other way). Another referendum would have us remain in the EU because they would ask another question carefully skewed to get the answer they want - I tell you we a have a corrupt parliament of liars and cheats, puppets of the EU through coercion and bribery.
Except by running against the Tories, it's more likely the Brexit party will deny the Tories a majority and end up with the exact result they don't want (a Remainer dominated Parliament). The Brexit Party can't win a majority by itself (in fact, I doubt it will win any seats at all) so by running the likely effect is the exact opposite of what they want.
Groundhog Day is coming.......