Thanks to your great lecture I am understanding this indicator and I am making a profitable strategy for the first time! You are an excellent educator. Soon I´ll be able to trade my own strategies in Darwinex. BTW your lecture about "overfitting" helped me to understand why, despite successfully backtested,most of my strategies fail on the realtime paper account. Now I am in the process of reviewing eache of those.
Its interesting to see how you are applying ichimoku and in a super simplifed (like to extreme really) mechanistic "systems-trading" approach. I would suggest that this is most likely just simply too simplifed. Ichimoku is not just about where or not there is golden cross (or dead cross) with Tenkan and Kijun over the Kumo but also considers the slope, price action (becoming overheated etc... or we might say in Gann theory thinking: the angle and volatility dimensions) etc. (and related in a short position being considered), in the question of entry. Further most ichimoku oriented trend-action traders are concerned as well with issues of risk managment and how that relates to entrance, target, setting up stop loss (and or changing that breakeaven or to "profit stop" positions and how that is often related/chosen in correspondence with the Kijun or Span A/Span B relation) and/or use of Wave Theory and Time Theory in relation to allowing flexibity for the trade to "run" (on the long side): anticipating to a degree, diff points likely that the target may very come-to-be (N, V, NT, and E levels developed by pretty straight forward assessment of the wave forms in formation, often uncannily accurate. but of course not always and is understood as such). os Hosoda -- the initial developer of Ichimoku -- was very concerned that major mistakes and reckless trading can occur when and if ONLY working with Tenkan-Kijun gold cross and/or dead cross. He would often advise that this is not the way as much as it is tempting. Rather that it really needs at least two years time to spend with Ichimoku as a whole (in now we would call screen time), to grasp the different elements and their relations: how it works to read the trend, anticipate certain kinds of things, etc. With of course no guarantees. This is not a prophecy tool! By any means. It cannot predict price action. And why he would often say one has to consider price action well, at any given time. But it does allow for -- if used well -- strong sense of how to read trend formation, exhaustion, possible targets and stops, etc.. I don't know if i would say it takes two years of studying (and real screen time) ! But that wouldnt hurt. But i think he is right that just right out of the box only using Tenkan-Kijun cross or that is Kumo breakout (without considering price action, thickness of cloud, slope and/or time-scale of flat Span A/B, etc. ) would likely be highly problematic. Nonetheless, i am particularly interested to see how with solid tweaking to account for such important considerations, how a systems-trading appraoch could work out here! Ichimoku can be very productive in swing and intraday trading, but one does need to spend some screen time with it indeed and learn to understand the relations of the diff signals/lines and what they are representing, in diff to say EMA. What are the strengths and weakness' of the Tenkan and Kijun lines (they are mathematically plotted based on *MEDIAN* not on Averaging-- UNLIKE EMA.. which does then yield significant diffs in what they are showing you and how they relate to each other). IMHO if one were to read only one book on Ichimoku, of course the ones in Japanese are very good. But often google translate or such is very poor when translating japanese. LIke horrendously bad. A spanish language book called Ichimoku Total by Isaias de la Peña Balbuena is an excellent introduction and covers why and how it is indeed a trend charting orientation, and why and how it itself is not so oriented with capturing the very bottom(of say a reversal) and the very top (of what in Andrew's theorizing is sometimes called a mountain top). That is hard for many traders to truly digest, but once grasped and back tested consistently one can see the strengths and if one wishes to learn to modify or add say Andrew's pitchfork to possibly address close-to-bottom entry points (on reversals) and peaks of tops (on trend peak points). Andrew's pitchfork and the underlying theory involved can correlate well as a useful tool with Ichimoku, as for one, like the tenkan and kijun lines it is mathematically determined by working with MEDIAN points (not averages). I could go on, but this is already a long comment. looking forward to seeing how you develop this systems-trading approach with Ichimoku! Cheers!
Thank you for shedding light. I always wondered why when I do long duration backtests I always get a falling equity curve, because I only implemented the signal and not the other aspects like noise and trend filters. I am excited and looking forward for your future videos going through how these filters and steps make a difference in the results.
I was going to ask you for the particular currency you have used to make the video but as you say that you will be covering all 28 currency pairs, I'll just wait for the next video.
This episode has much needed insight. However, What kind of position sizing does your EA use? Do you not run out of margin when testing all 28 symbols simultaneously?
Hey Martyn, Thank, you for putting time into doing this. Can you please shed some light on backtesting results? I have watched the "Backtesting and Optimization" series. I couldn't figure out the minimum or good enough results I should be looking for in a strategy to move into demo trading or live trading. I'm using the CAGR/MeanDD metric and getting results from -ve to +ve. I know +ve is the way to go but let's say 10 yrs or 5 yrs period optimization, what results should be the minimum to move into the next step, is it 1, 5, or 10, etc...?
Thank you very much . I have a question, how could i trade more high frequency while the spread could ruin my strategy? There is any sloution for the spread ?
The Ichimoku indicator in MT4 is not built the way the original Ichimoku indicator was meant to be. Keep that in mind. And do your own research, always. -- I love these video series though. Keep 'em coming.
Hi Daniel. Hopefully the other episodes I've produced have explained all aspects of Ichimoku. You can find a link to all other episodes in the series in the video description. Martyn
I started watching your videos and I watched a lot of them. Short and professional.
Thanks to your great lecture I am understanding this indicator and I am making a profitable strategy for the first time! You are an excellent educator. Soon I´ll be able to trade my own strategies in Darwinex. BTW your lecture about "overfitting" helped me to understand why, despite successfully backtested,most of my strategies fail on the realtime paper account. Now I am in the process of reviewing eache of those.
Excellent job !! Thank you once again for this video.
Its interesting to see how you are applying ichimoku and in a super simplifed (like to extreme really) mechanistic "systems-trading" approach. I would suggest that this is most likely just simply too simplifed. Ichimoku is not just about where or not there is golden cross (or dead cross) with Tenkan and Kijun over the Kumo but also considers the slope, price action (becoming overheated etc... or we might say in Gann theory thinking: the angle and volatility dimensions) etc. (and related in a short position being considered), in the question of entry. Further most ichimoku oriented trend-action traders are concerned as well with issues of risk managment and how that relates to entrance, target, setting up stop loss (and or changing that breakeaven or to "profit stop" positions and how that is often related/chosen in correspondence with the Kijun or Span A/Span B relation) and/or use of Wave Theory and Time Theory in relation to allowing flexibity for the trade to "run" (on the long side): anticipating to a degree, diff points likely that the target may very come-to-be (N, V, NT, and E levels developed by pretty straight forward assessment of the wave forms in formation, often uncannily accurate. but of course not always and is understood as such). os
Hosoda -- the initial developer of Ichimoku -- was very concerned that major mistakes and reckless trading can occur when and if ONLY working with Tenkan-Kijun gold cross and/or dead cross. He would often advise that this is not the way as much as it is tempting. Rather that it really needs at least two years time to spend with Ichimoku as a whole (in now we would call screen time), to grasp the different elements and their relations: how it works to read the trend, anticipate certain kinds of things, etc. With of course no guarantees. This is not a prophecy tool! By any means. It cannot predict price action. And why he would often say one has to consider price action well, at any given time. But it does allow for -- if used well -- strong sense of how to read trend formation, exhaustion, possible targets and stops, etc.. I don't know if i would say it takes two years of studying (and real screen time) ! But that wouldnt hurt. But i think he is right that just right out of the box only using Tenkan-Kijun cross or that is Kumo breakout (without considering price action, thickness of cloud, slope and/or time-scale of flat Span A/B, etc. ) would likely be highly problematic.
Nonetheless, i am particularly interested to see how with solid tweaking to account for such important considerations, how a systems-trading appraoch could work out here! Ichimoku can be very productive in swing and intraday trading, but one does need to spend some screen time with it indeed and learn to understand the relations of the diff signals/lines and what they are representing, in diff to say EMA. What are the strengths and weakness' of the Tenkan and Kijun lines (they are mathematically plotted based on *MEDIAN* not on Averaging-- UNLIKE EMA.. which does then yield significant diffs in what they are showing you and how they relate to each other).
IMHO if one were to read only one book on Ichimoku, of course the ones in Japanese are very good. But often google translate or such is very poor when translating japanese. LIke horrendously bad. A spanish language book called Ichimoku Total by Isaias de la Peña Balbuena is an excellent introduction and covers why and how it is indeed a trend charting orientation, and why and how it itself is not so oriented with capturing the very bottom(of say a reversal) and the very top (of what in Andrew's theorizing is sometimes called a mountain top). That is hard for many traders to truly digest, but once grasped and back tested consistently one can see the strengths and if one wishes to learn to modify or add say Andrew's pitchfork to possibly address close-to-bottom entry points (on reversals) and peaks of tops (on trend peak points). Andrew's pitchfork and the underlying theory involved can correlate well as a useful tool with Ichimoku, as for one, like the tenkan and kijun lines it is mathematically determined by working with MEDIAN points (not averages). I could go on, but this is already a long comment.
looking forward to seeing how you develop this systems-trading approach with Ichimoku! Cheers!
Some great advice there. Many thanks for sharing with everyone. Cheers, Martyn
Thank you. I can't wait to see code implementation of this strategy.
Martyn, thank you so much for everything I've learnt and still learning with your videos! =D
Thank you for shedding light. I always wondered why when I do long duration backtests I always get a falling equity curve, because I only implemented the signal and not the other aspects like noise and trend filters. I am excited and looking forward for your future videos going through how these filters and steps make a difference in the results.
I was going to ask you for the particular currency you have used to make the video but as you say that you will be covering all 28 currency pairs, I'll just wait for the next video.
This episode has much needed insight. However, What kind of position sizing does your EA use? Do you not run out of margin when testing all 28 symbols simultaneously?
Well done
Good video!
Hey Martyn, Thank, you for putting time into doing this. Can you please shed some light on backtesting results? I have watched the "Backtesting and Optimization" series. I couldn't figure out the minimum or good enough results I should be looking for in a strategy to move into demo trading or live trading. I'm using the CAGR/MeanDD metric and getting results from -ve to +ve. I know +ve is the way to go but let's say 10 yrs or 5 yrs period optimization, what results should be the minimum to move into the next step, is it 1, 5, or 10, etc...?
Thank you very much .
I have a question, how could i trade more high frequency while the spread could ruin my strategy? There is any sloution for the spread ?
The Ichimoku indicator in MT4 is not built the way the original Ichimoku indicator was meant to be. Keep that in mind. And do your own research, always. -- I love these video series though. Keep 'em coming.
what does "other aspects of Ichimoku" of the blue line correspond to?
Hi Daniel. Hopefully the other episodes I've produced have explained all aspects of Ichimoku. You can find a link to all other episodes in the series in the video description.
Martyn
Martyn, did you update your GitHub repository with the code snippets shown here in your video?
Coming soon once the implementation is complete :). Stay tuned... Martyn