I bought the book within the first 5 minutes of hearing this guy speak. As i continue to listen, the voice inside of me says "Look dude, you had me at plagues, disasters and impending doom. There is no need to over sell this."
15:00 When referring to the US's more infamous Superspreader events, "individualistic" is a euphemism for selfish, arrogant, rebellious, and ignorantly lacking in prescience.
Be careful criticizing individualism. On the pro side, we did come up with covid vaccines, and most of the great scientific discoveries of the past 200 years, not to mention Twitter, Facebook, TH-cam, And pretty much every great international company that exists. We’re aren’t a nation of sheeple. It’s my civic duty to be rebellious. Without rebellion, we’d still be part of the British empire
This goes directly to Ferguson's observation that 'everything gets politcized.' Democrats acted sheepishly to prove that they were good Democrats; Republicans rebelled to prove they were good Republicans. Nothing to do with the science, or even with regard for one's fellow citizens.
@@vitruviuspolio The science doesn't tell you how to act; it just tells you the facts. How to act depends on what you value, the facts, the probabilities, what you want your life to be like, given the facts. If you would rather die than live without people coercing you or deceiving you, you make one choice. If you value the quantity, the length of your life more than the quality of it, you may make a different choice, depending on the facts.
That's the problem with discussions outside of science, outside of cold, hard facts that can be measured; we tend to differ in how we define things and in what is important. I find the most selfish stance to be the idea of a right to impose one's own ideas on others -- not just defend your own property and liberty by force, but to force other people to think the way you do, to violate their property (which includes your body and thoughts) and liberty (to be left in peace, no coercion, no deceit) for the sake of your feelings, ideas, welfare...
31:50 Nobody blames Trump for the existence of the pandemic. They blame him for his leadership during it. He did things that objectively made it worse (specifically by delaying declaring it as the serious thing that it was). Exponential systems react to taking action when they are small. A small change in the early stages can result in a large difference in the effects later. That's just how exponential systems work. To say that Trump's actions had no impact on that is just to deny reality, and basic system dynamics. If something bad is happening, does delaying and denying its existence ever make it BETTER, or have no effect at all? That would imply that we have no control over the spread, which we know is not true.
It's called wishful thinking. The data doesn't say this is anywhere near over. Infection levels are the same as they were between March and October of last year.
I love to listen to Niall Ferguson. While I disagree politically and about many of his conclusions, he is always entertaining and very thought-provoking. I disagree that people are "Cassandra's" about global warming. The federal government has basically done next to nothing to do anything. He is right that we should prepare for the generic disaster of the future but I would argue very strongly that preparing for climate change is doing that very thing. Preparing for global warming not only mitigates global warming consequences it also decentralizes the grid, hardens the grid from other nationstates, hardens a grid from internal accidents, creates jobs mitigating the job losses from technology, conserves fossil fuels for future use, defends the US from oil dependence from hostile countries, cleans the environment from other non-CO2 pollutants, positioning US as a leader of technology of the future, etc. etc.
The casual smear of teachers' unions at 1:33:18 was completely gratuitous. Yes they do play politics in ways that one may or may not agree with; but teachers' unions have an impact that goes far beyond the culture-war headlines of the day. Teachers are motivated to teach children (obviously) and they sometimes make great personal sacrifices to do so. As a whole, their collective bargaining has centered not only around worker benefits, but also around improving their students' education by limiting class size and improving curriculum. If teacher unions are your go-to talking point for the degradation of education, your anti-union animus is stronger than your ability to thoughtfully weigh factors.
The more technical and complex industrial civilization becomes, the greater the odds of disasters happening for the dominant animal on earth in its ability to continue to oppose the physical forces of nature.
My understanding of the 12 year prediction is not that the world will "end", but that it will be much more difficult if not impossible to keep the global temperature rise limited to 1.5C. And even then the world won't "end", it will just be very, very costly in terms of human hardship and economics.
@@sifridbassoon Once again, these predictions are not forecasting “apocalypse”. They providing a window of opportunity to mitigate the worst effects of CO2 pollution.
I live in Japan. Everyone wears masks. If they can get everyone vaccinated, people will still wear masks. It’s not political at all. It’s courtesy for one thing since no one knows what anyone else’s health status is. The fact that people might wear them where they’re not needed (outside, driving their car) doesn’t mean they’re doing something useless. The ubiquitous mask wearing probably helped a lot - at least in the beginning.
@Heloise O'Byrne If people are so concerned about the safety of others they should stay home when sick. In Japan's work culture, it is extremely difficult to get time off from work so they wear masks that do nothing to slow the spread of a virus. Germans don't wear masks but a comparison shows that per capita deaths due to the flu are the same as Japan wear masks are worn.
@@PartlySunny74 Yes. There are drawbacks to it for sure. But, in this case, it must have helped in the beginning. Now the effect is wearing off a bit as the old men who've always led the country show the weakness of their ways: they're too slow, too conservative, uncreative, etc. Now the COVID cases are rising and they are out of ideas. Still, I doubt it will ever get as bad as it did in Italy or maybe even the States.
I love Niall's work, and non-Marxist historians are rare. However, people who use the present tense, when speaking of the past, need urgently to be rounded up and put in grammatical re-education camps, with only one escape route: correct use of the English Language.
Thank you gentlemen for an interesting discussion. If I may have a few critical points: you don´t seem to take notice of the media as a culprit in the drama that is taking place right now. It is a formidable force that is in the hands of a very few. Sonce they are basically on the same side as Big Tech, which was coeectly pointed out as a danger for Western society, the threat thereby is immensly larger. Big Tech:s role is never pointed out to the general public. Another thing that I want to mention is your assumptions about the shortcomings of what you call Conspiracy Theorists. You mentioned correctly that things are not that black and white as conspiracy theorists sometimes want to make it. But you forgot to remember that Deep Staters also understand the mechanisms of using a crisis to his benefit. This could as well lead to the conclusion that such a crisis can be provoced or induced by those who know how to take advantage of them even if they cannot control all the details. For example; the PNAC document talked about the desirability of regim change in a number of MENA countries but that it would take a new Peral Harbor to get that result. 9/11 happened and it played into the hands of the PNAC plotters. If that was a coincidence or not is still too early to be sure about. However; Michael you have already come to the conclusion that there could not be a plot induced by the governement or people close to it. Your argument that a plot like that could never be kept secret. But if they all knew that it would be chatic and that some elements of the event would be more or less impossible to foresee; it could function as well. In that specific case, like in many similar cases; the answer lies in the details. If the government lies too many times about important details; there is every reason to believe that they are involved somehow. "Never let a good crisis go to waste" .
Relax, he gets paid millions in speaking fees a year to private investors and audiences. Plus he is a professor at the two most prestigious universities in the world, best selling author, has hosted tv series, writes in major newspapers constantly etc etc etc...not everything is about TH-cam hits...
Yeah, but it appears as though lockdowns, counterintuitively, did more to spread the virus than not. One reason suggested is that while businesses and other social gathering places went all out to mitigate spread (through increased cleanliness and other air purifying methods), people in living areas did not.
Very insightful discussion. My takeaway is that the power grid should really be prepared with extra reliability from reliable power sources. Otherwise what happened in Texas could be just a prelude to a massive catastrophe. One more point, the Chernobile anti-nuclear propaganda series certainly had the opposite message, that it can happen everywhere and not only in soviet union. The characters, the plot, the accent - everything was done on purpose to show a western society in the disguise of soviet entourage.
I'd like to point out that if, as the IHME says, excess death was around 900,000 and it's basically all covid (some other things are up, but made up for by things which are down such as flu); and if the serology estimates which put us around 100 million infections are right; and if we see the real drop off in cases at around 60% immunity; then Ferguson's model was bang on. We'd see right around 2 million deaths. Especially after you factor in naturally acquired immunity only being around 80% effective. That's if oxygen shortages are avoided.
@1:17:30 "doom befell the British Empire......its not little England but yeah it's not Great Britain..." yeah, so what it's still....OK. Who's casandering now. He seems to be disappearing down the very rabbit hole he warned us against earlier
@@tetrapharmakos8868 he clearly IS engaging in the thing he warns us about. 'Dooom' did not befell the British Empire. It ended with some bangs then a long drawn out whimper. Then Britain gradually recovered some sort of reasonably functioning identity. Doom is the keyword for harbingers. Hence the term doom monger and the title of his book. And so the dire warnings about China and Taiwan which may or may not ..... and so on and so forth
Unexpected disasters: A) Trash like plastics everywhere leading to species extinction in oceans B) Chemical pollution everywhere burdening our bodies to death C) Overpopulation is still there leading to more species extinction and collapse of the food system D) combinations of all of the above at the same time with interactive synergies
Niall said "Chinese became much more ambitious since Xi Jinping". Not true. They were documented as that ambitious since the writing of "Unlimited Warefare" in the 1990s. And according to Michael Pillsbury in his book "The Hundred-year Marathon: China's Secret Strategy to Replace America As the Global Superpower" this was the plan all along.
I agree that Xi in particular hasn't changed China, but I also don't think they're really ambitious or far-sighted as people give them credit for. They're just more desperate. Their various crises are coming to a head this decade and they need to resort to ever more drastic measures to stave catastrophe off. The crises, for anyone not aware, are demographics, internal divisions, massive internal debt obligations, rapidly depleting freshwater reserves in the northern half of the country, and heavy reliance on foreign sources of oil and foreign markets to pay for it. The biggest threat that China represents is the threat of imploding, possibly into civil war, but either way with the likely final end-state of being what it was in the 70s--a gigantic North Korea. However, unlike in the 70s, it's unlikely the Chinese people will meekly accept that fate, and no doubt tens of millions of them will try to flee with whatever they can, single-handedly doubling or tripling the total number of worldwide refugees, overwhelming the world's ability to absorb them. It will be a humanitarian crisis on an unprecedented scale. THAT'S the realistic doomsday scenario strategic planners both inside and outside of China are most worried about. Don't be fooled by the silly propaganda both sides put out for domestic consumption, both by politicians for political reasons, and particularly here in the West by pop media to get clicks and sell advertising and books. The real danger is China collapsing and sending a billion people back to abject poverty, with all the economic loss, political instability, and mass refugee and humanitarian crises that would no doubt include.
I like this guy, Ferguson, although I don't agree with a fair amount of his opinions or a fair amount of his reasoning and historical support for his opinions. For example, "...in liberal America, let's call it, blue America, there was almost an overcompliance because it became a badge of one liberalism..." and this was a supportive statement for politicizing public health issue. 1. He's right about PH and other public things being politicized, and it's getting worse. 2. But he uses masks as his example. He cites it being a badge of liberalism (a broadstroke statement). I think this is construct of his (really smart actually) mind that comes across as sound reasoning and sets listeners foundation of the world a little firmer directly based on what he just said (generally speaking of course). 3. He does this a lot I've noticed. He pontificates on many things...that is a big part of his career now as an author and I presume an academic that uses his gravitas and knowledge for things like consulting, paid speaking, etc. 3b. When he states opinions, or his conclusions to support the opinion (or the opinion itself), where I feel if I ignore the speaker's persona (and credentials) it almost always is a conservative or in realm of GOP-at-large positions or talking points...it's never a full-throated embrace, but it almost always lands on the conservative realm or in the conservative framing of things. 4. There is nothing wrong with him personally, but it just so happens that he is one of the few "academic" experts with huge influence (not just in media with his omnipresence, but I think also in policy development with policy makers or with leaders of large corporations), WHERE I personally can't tell * instantly * by listening to him WHICH of his opinions and statements deserve more scrutiny or should I accept his framing. I have to think closely with what he said. And when I do identify which are definitely opinions and I shouldn't follow his reasoning without scrutiny, I scrutinize, and I always find I actually think his assertion opinion is in this range: (I don't agree) to (weak-sauce support actually) to (actually this is hogwash). Personal experience & thoughts with masks: A. Here in late 2023, I still wear a mask in public mostly. When I indoor dine, which is rare, I do not. I actually like wearing a mask. It has cut down on yearly # of colds and other illnesses. This makes me more productive and healthier. I get shit from family and friends, some of it not gentle ribbing. I also get bothered in public between comments, stares, to strangers wanting to argue with me over whatever is in there fevered brain assumptions. I'm like "so what?" I wear a mask. I don't do it to make a statement. Why are randos getting butthurt by it? I never knew or know anyone in my own judgment that wore a mask as a badge. What I did see a lot in my judgment was a lot of people online and in personal life make claims that wearing mask was political (or being sheep). Like a lot. B. Ultimate Point of this long message: Niall is a knowledgeable, thoughtful, incredibly informative source of information and reasoning...that happens to be incredibly influential in many substantive ways. He is an honest broker of information and opinions. He seems to be a super well-meaning guy to boot. But a lot of the things he states that I don't need to accept his expertise as foundational (i.e. when he speaks about history and humanity and its application to issues today and into the future), it is: 1. hard to identify as purely personal opinion based, which often I actually find as hogwash AND 2. I think it's just who he is. It's not intentional or even anything wrong at all BUT his trustworthiness and influence (not thru any intention or deception by him) bears weight on his pure opinions through a weird, as in weird=unique, personality trait. And I even think is not conscious or intentional, it just is.
What are you talking about?? After Chernobyl USSR collapse!! Why do you think it happened? Same thing will happen after CV is over to USA. We are just started going there. Mark my words.
i fundamentally disagree with niall and his interpretations (and even consider some of his viewpoints despicable and purposefully misleading) but it was a nice interview regardless. the questions were on point.
People get enthralled by well-spoken Europeans. However when you analyze what Ferguson actually says, his ideas are pretty shallow, and just incorrect in many cases.
@@andybaldman But he's not bald. You are Andy. But speaking seriously I don't find him so impressive here. I saw an interview with him about his book about, I believe, ethnic conflict in collapsing empires and was very interesting
I bought the book within the first 5 minutes of hearing this guy speak. As i continue to listen, the voice inside of me says "Look dude, you had me at plagues, disasters and impending doom. There is no need to over sell this."
15:00 When referring to the US's more infamous Superspreader events, "individualistic" is a euphemism for selfish, arrogant, rebellious, and ignorantly lacking in prescience.
Be careful criticizing individualism. On the pro side, we did come up with covid vaccines, and most of the great scientific discoveries of the past 200 years, not to mention Twitter, Facebook, TH-cam, And pretty much every great international company that exists. We’re aren’t a nation of sheeple. It’s my civic duty to be rebellious. Without rebellion, we’d still be part of the British empire
This goes directly to Ferguson's observation that 'everything gets politcized.' Democrats acted sheepishly to prove that they were good Democrats; Republicans rebelled to prove they were good Republicans. Nothing to do with the science, or even with regard for one's fellow citizens.
@@vitruviuspolio The science doesn't tell you how to act; it just tells you the facts. How to act depends on what you value, the facts, the probabilities, what you want your life to be like, given the facts. If you would rather die than live without people coercing you or deceiving you, you make one choice. If you value the quantity, the length of your life more than the quality of it, you may make a different choice, depending on the facts.
That's the problem with discussions outside of science, outside of cold, hard facts that can be measured; we tend to differ in how we define things and in what is important.
I find the most selfish stance to be the idea of a right to impose one's own ideas on others -- not just defend your own property and liberty by force, but to force other people to think the way you do, to violate their property (which includes your body and thoughts) and liberty (to be left in peace, no coercion, no deceit) for the sake of your feelings, ideas, welfare...
31:50 Nobody blames Trump for the existence of the pandemic. They blame him for his leadership during it. He did things that objectively made it worse (specifically by delaying declaring it as the serious thing that it was). Exponential systems react to taking action when they are small. A small change in the early stages can result in a large difference in the effects later. That's just how exponential systems work. To say that Trump's actions had no impact on that is just to deny reality, and basic system dynamics. If something bad is happening, does delaying and denying its existence ever make it BETTER, or have no effect at all? That would imply that we have no control over the spread, which we know is not true.
Great guest and conversation. Please say hello to Ayaan Hersey Ali.
It is a wonderful thing to be talking about Covid19 in hindsight..
I listened to an interview with Niall about April last year and it was completely in line with what he's saying now.
It's called wishful thinking. The data doesn't say this is anywhere near over. Infection levels are the same as they were between March and October of last year.
Great discussion. Thanks very much
Niall is the man. Best of luck from Hamilton Ontario Canada.
I love to listen to Niall Ferguson. While I disagree politically and about many of his conclusions, he is always entertaining and very thought-provoking. I disagree that people are "Cassandra's" about global warming. The federal government has basically done next to nothing to do anything. He is right that we should prepare for the generic disaster of the future but I would argue very strongly that preparing for climate change is doing that very thing. Preparing for global warming not only mitigates global warming consequences it also decentralizes the grid, hardens the grid from other nationstates, hardens a grid from internal accidents, creates jobs mitigating the job losses from technology, conserves fossil fuels for future use, defends the US from oil dependence from hostile countries, cleans the environment from other non-CO2 pollutants, positioning US as a leader of technology of the future, etc. etc.
The casual smear of teachers' unions at 1:33:18 was completely gratuitous. Yes they do play politics in ways that one may or may not agree with; but teachers' unions have an impact that goes far beyond the culture-war headlines of the day. Teachers are motivated to teach children (obviously) and they sometimes make great personal sacrifices to do so. As a whole, their collective bargaining has centered not only around worker benefits, but also around improving their students' education by limiting class size and improving curriculum. If teacher unions are your go-to talking point for the degradation of education, your anti-union animus is stronger than your ability to thoughtfully weigh factors.
The more technical and complex industrial civilization becomes, the greater the odds of disasters happening for the dominant animal on earth in its ability to continue to oppose the physical forces of nature.
Perfect timing. Death is pretty much the end of the world for a person who dies, so yeah Annihilation happens every damn day.
Death is not the end.
❤
Niall didn't mention the word "Woke" until 1 hour 24 minutes! Vast improvement over your last interview with him Michael, you kept him on topic.
Michael just thinking damn this connection is good.
I love listening to Ayaan's husband, as I like to call him ;)
Yeah, Mr. Ali is great.
See L bb. B bhk
@@craigb4913 bbohh
too funny!
My understanding of the 12 year prediction is not that the world will "end", but that it will be much more difficult if not impossible to keep the global temperature rise limited to 1.5C. And even then the world won't "end", it will just be very, very costly in terms of human hardship and economics.
which 12 year prediction? we've already busted past numerous dates for the climate apocalypse
@@sifridbassoon Once again, these predictions are not forecasting “apocalypse”. They providing a window of opportunity to mitigate the worst effects of CO2 pollution.
I live in Japan. Everyone wears masks. If they can get everyone vaccinated, people will still wear masks. It’s not political at all. It’s courtesy for one thing since no one knows what anyone else’s health status is. The fact that people might wear them where they’re not needed (outside, driving their car) doesn’t mean they’re doing something useless. The ubiquitous mask wearing probably helped a lot - at least in the beginning.
@Heloise O'Byrne If people are so concerned about the safety of others they should stay home when sick. In Japan's work culture, it is extremely difficult to get time off from work so they wear masks that do nothing to slow the spread of a virus. Germans don't wear masks but a comparison shows that per capita deaths due to the flu are the same as Japan wear masks are worn.
@@PartlySunny74 Yes. There are drawbacks to it for sure. But, in this case, it must have helped in the beginning. Now the effect is wearing off a bit as the old men who've always led the country show the weakness of their ways: they're too slow, too conservative, uncreative, etc. Now the COVID cases are rising and they are out of ideas. Still, I doubt it will ever get as bad as it did in Italy or maybe even the States.
I love Niall's work, and non-Marxist historians are rare.
However, people who use the present tense, when speaking of the past, need urgently to be rounded up and put in grammatical re-education camps, with only one escape route: correct use of the English Language.
I just bought this book. Yesterday in fact.
Thank you gentlemen for an interesting discussion. If I may have a few critical points: you don´t seem to take notice of the media as a culprit in the drama that is taking place right now. It is a formidable force that is in the hands of a very few. Sonce they are basically on the same side as Big Tech, which was coeectly pointed out as a danger for Western society, the threat thereby is immensly larger. Big Tech:s role is never pointed out to the general public. Another thing that I want to mention is your assumptions about the shortcomings of what you call Conspiracy Theorists. You mentioned correctly that things are not that black and white as conspiracy theorists sometimes want to make it. But you forgot to remember that Deep Staters also understand the mechanisms of using a crisis to his benefit. This could as well lead to the conclusion that such a crisis can be provoced or induced by those who know how to take advantage of them even if they cannot control all the details. For example; the PNAC document talked about the desirability of regim change in a number of MENA countries but that it would take a new Peral Harbor to get that result. 9/11 happened and it played into the hands of the PNAC plotters. If that was a coincidence or not is still too early to be sure about. However; Michael you have already come to the conclusion that there could not be a plot induced by the governement or people close to it. Your argument that a plot like that could never be kept secret. But if they all knew that it would be chatic and that some elements of the event would be more or less impossible to foresee; it could function as well. In that specific case, like in many similar cases; the answer lies in the details. If the government lies too many times about important details; there is every reason to believe that they are involved somehow. "Never let a good crisis go to waste" .
Naill is such a thought provoking individual. He does not get enough online traction
Relax, he gets paid millions in speaking fees a year to private investors and audiences. Plus he is a professor at the two most prestigious universities in the world, best selling author, has hosted tv series, writes in major newspapers constantly etc etc etc...not everything is about TH-cam hits...
Yeah, but it appears as though lockdowns, counterintuitively, did more to spread the virus than not. One reason suggested is that while businesses and other social gathering places went all out to mitigate spread (through increased cleanliness and other air purifying methods), people in living areas did not.
Very insightful discussion. My takeaway is that the power grid should really be prepared with extra reliability from reliable power sources. Otherwise what happened in Texas could be just a prelude to a massive catastrophe.
One more point, the Chernobile anti-nuclear propaganda series certainly had the opposite message, that it can happen everywhere and not only in soviet union. The characters, the plot, the accent - everything was done on purpose to show a western society in the disguise of soviet entourage.
I'm reading this now. You'd better not spoil anything!
I'd like to point out that if, as the IHME says, excess death was around 900,000 and it's basically all covid (some other things are up, but made up for by things which are down such as flu); and if the serology estimates which put us around 100 million infections are right; and if we see the real drop off in cases at around 60% immunity; then Ferguson's model was bang on. We'd see right around 2 million deaths. Especially after you factor in naturally acquired immunity only being around 80% effective.
That's if oxygen shortages are avoided.
@1:17:30 "doom befell the British Empire......its not little England but yeah it's not Great Britain..." yeah, so what it's still....OK. Who's casandering now. He seems to be disappearing down the very rabbit hole he warned us against earlier
@@tetrapharmakos8868 he clearly IS engaging in the thing he warns us about. 'Dooom' did not befell the British Empire. It ended with some bangs then a long drawn out whimper. Then Britain gradually recovered some sort of reasonably functioning identity. Doom is the keyword for harbingers. Hence the term doom monger and the title of his book. And so the dire warnings about China and Taiwan which may or may not ..... and so on and so forth
Unexpected disasters: A) Trash like plastics everywhere leading to species extinction in oceans B) Chemical pollution everywhere burdening our bodies to death C) Overpopulation is still there leading to more species extinction and collapse of the food system D) combinations of all of the above at the same time with interactive synergies
1:21:21 Agreed. Fixing the Twitter/social media problem is far more important to society than going to fucking Mars.
Have you checked TW's COVID number today?
I wonder if the studies into gain of function would have happened had Bill Gates not given that talk about pandemics. A self fulfilling prophesy?
You know again you know, is it America or the United States? You know, one is a country, you know, take your pick.
Wasn't Krakatoa a large eruption?
If we let them have Sudetenland (German speaking part of Czechoslovakia), and if we let them have Austria... Then the Nazis bombed Poland.
Niall said "Chinese became much more ambitious since Xi Jinping". Not true. They were documented as that ambitious since the writing of "Unlimited Warefare" in the 1990s. And according to Michael Pillsbury in his book "The Hundred-year Marathon: China's Secret Strategy to Replace America As the Global Superpower" this was the plan all along.
I agree that Xi in particular hasn't changed China, but I also don't think they're really ambitious or far-sighted as people give them credit for. They're just more desperate. Their various crises are coming to a head this decade and they need to resort to ever more drastic measures to stave catastrophe off. The crises, for anyone not aware, are demographics, internal divisions, massive internal debt obligations, rapidly depleting freshwater reserves in the northern half of the country, and heavy reliance on foreign sources of oil and foreign markets to pay for it. The biggest threat that China represents is the threat of imploding, possibly into civil war, but either way with the likely final end-state of being what it was in the 70s--a gigantic North Korea. However, unlike in the 70s, it's unlikely the Chinese people will meekly accept that fate, and no doubt tens of millions of them will try to flee with whatever they can, single-handedly doubling or tripling the total number of worldwide refugees, overwhelming the world's ability to absorb them. It will be a humanitarian crisis on an unprecedented scale. THAT'S the realistic doomsday scenario strategic planners both inside and outside of China are most worried about. Don't be fooled by the silly propaganda both sides put out for domestic consumption, both by politicians for political reasons, and particularly here in the West by pop media to get clicks and sell advertising and books. The real danger is China collapsing and sending a billion people back to abject poverty, with all the economic loss, political instability, and mass refugee and humanitarian crises that would no doubt include.
For skeptics... have in view iran and turkey! Would U find em friendly just in case?
Is the cover and title of his book inspired by a certain video game?
Why do you think cv wasn't intentional? It's still not disproved.
Did the Government appear to you to be big when it broke up the railroad Monopolism.
I think his name is pronounced "Neil", not "Ni-al".
I like this guy, Ferguson, although I don't agree with a fair amount of his opinions or a fair amount of his reasoning and historical support for his opinions.
For example, "...in liberal America, let's call it, blue America, there was almost an overcompliance because it became a badge of one liberalism..." and this was a supportive statement for politicizing public health issue.
1. He's right about PH and other public things being politicized, and it's getting worse.
2. But he uses masks as his example. He cites it being a badge of liberalism (a broadstroke statement). I think this is construct of his (really smart actually) mind that comes across as sound reasoning and sets listeners foundation of the world a little firmer directly based on what he just said (generally speaking of course).
3. He does this a lot I've noticed. He pontificates on many things...that is a big part of his career now as an author and I presume an academic that uses his gravitas and knowledge for things like consulting, paid speaking, etc.
3b. When he states opinions, or his conclusions to support the opinion (or the opinion itself), where I feel if I ignore the speaker's persona (and credentials) it almost always is a conservative or in realm of GOP-at-large positions or talking points...it's never a full-throated embrace, but it almost always lands on the conservative realm or in the conservative framing of things.
4. There is nothing wrong with him personally, but it just so happens that he is one of the few "academic" experts with huge influence (not just in media with his omnipresence, but I think also in policy development with policy makers or with leaders of large corporations), WHERE I personally can't tell * instantly * by listening to him WHICH of his opinions and statements deserve more scrutiny or should I accept his framing. I have to think closely with what he said.
And when I do identify which are definitely opinions and I shouldn't follow his reasoning without scrutiny, I scrutinize, and I always find I actually think his assertion opinion is in this range: (I don't agree) to (weak-sauce support actually) to (actually this is hogwash).
Personal experience & thoughts with masks:
A. Here in late 2023, I still wear a mask in public mostly. When I indoor dine, which is rare, I do not. I actually like wearing a mask. It has cut down on yearly # of colds and other illnesses. This makes me more productive and healthier. I get shit from family and friends, some of it not gentle ribbing. I also get bothered in public between comments, stares, to strangers wanting to argue with me over whatever is in there fevered brain assumptions.
I'm like "so what?" I wear a mask. I don't do it to make a statement. Why are randos getting butthurt by it?
I never knew or know anyone in my own judgment that wore a mask as a badge. What I did see a lot in my judgment was a lot of people online and in personal life make claims that wearing mask was political (or being sheep). Like a lot.
B. Ultimate Point of this long message:
Niall is a knowledgeable, thoughtful, incredibly informative source of information and reasoning...that happens to be incredibly influential in many substantive ways.
He is an honest broker of information and opinions. He seems to be a super well-meaning guy to boot.
But a lot of the things he states that I don't need to accept his expertise as foundational (i.e. when he speaks about history and humanity and its application to issues today and into the future), it is:
1. hard to identify as purely personal opinion based, which often I actually find as hogwash AND
2. I think it's just who he is. It's not intentional or even anything wrong at all BUT his trustworthiness and influence
(not thru any intention or deception by him) bears weight on his pure opinions through a weird, as in
weird=unique, personality trait. And I even think is not conscious or intentional, it just is.
What are you talking about?? After Chernobyl USSR collapse!! Why do you think it happened? Same thing will happen after CV is over to USA. We are just started going there. Mark my words.
i fundamentally disagree with niall and his interpretations (and even consider some of his viewpoints despicable and purposefully misleading) but it was a nice interview regardless. the questions were on point.
I’m curious, like which ones and why? If you’re bored and feel like expanding of course, no biggie if not!
i am not a climatologist, but..
Yes Michael the 70s - bad clothing and bad hair - lol
First Jorden Peterson, now Niall Fergusson. Coming soon... Charles Murray?
Remember when Shermer knew what skepticism meant?
He already did one with Charles Murray
Far too much data, perhaps?
@@tetrapharmakos8868 _"Skeptism means"_
... throwing them out when they fail. I've only read three books by Peterson. How many have you?
People get enthralled by well-spoken Europeans. However when you analyze what Ferguson actually says, his ideas are pretty shallow, and just incorrect in many cases.
@@tetrapharmakos8868 Yes, that applies perfectly to Ferguson.
@@andybaldman But he's not bald. You are Andy.
But speaking seriously I don't find him so impressive here. I saw an interview with him about his book about, I believe, ethnic conflict in collapsing empires and was very interesting
Why the dumb intro??? Just get to it.
Get a vegan on your show already.
Ferguson is not worth the listen. Schermer should know better. But truth is, schermer ain't either. Won't be back. Stick with the day jobs.
Great discussion! Thank you!