We might be more concerned about paying off our mortgage if it were larger (or if our jobs weren't as secure), but right now, investing offers a better return. Bloomberg and other finance media have been documenting stories of people making over $250k in a couple months.
Invest if you actually want to be wealthy. However, you should get guidance from a financial advisor if you want to create a successful long-term plan….
You're wasting valuable time when you're trying to clear your mortgage. I'm not the only one who realizes this,I started investing sometime in 2018 and by late 2021, I pulled a profit of over 400% in my portfolio. I was basically just following the guidelines set by the financial advisor I use.
I'm cautious about giving specific recommendations since this is an online forum and everyone situation is unique, but I've worked with Carol Vivian Constable for years and highly recommend her. Look her up to see if she meets your criteria.
Thanks for sharing. I curiously searched for her full name and her website popped up immediately. I looked through her credentials and did my due diligence before contacting her.
Mortgage rates are currently at an all time high since 2000(24 years) and based on statistics on inflation, we might see that number skyrocket further, a 30-year fixed rate was only 5% this time last year, so do I just keep waiting for a housing crash before buying or redirect my focus to the equity market
The stock market is no different, to maintain profit you need to have some in-depth knowledge on the market. I mostly just buy and hold stocks, but my portfolio has been mostly in the red for quite awhile now. Unfortunately to be able to make good gains, you’ll need to be consistent and restructure your portfolio frequently.
In my opinion, it was much easier investing back in the 80s but it’s a lot trickier now, those making consistent profit in these times are professionals reason I’ve been using an advisor for the past 5 years to consistently build my portfolio in preparations for retirement.
I've stuck with SOPHIE LYNN CARRABUS since the pandemic, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field with over two decades of experience, simply look her up.
I just googled her and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get. I just scheduled a caII.
@@stevelichtwark4259 the user you're replying to is more than likely referring to the two year period of March 2020 - March 2022 when the Fed had rates at 0 and average 30-yr fixed rates were between ~2.7-3.7%. (in the US) Those homes figuratively are earning a lot of rent in people's minds because the media made a huge deal about it. Anyway, their point isn't super deep, what they're saying is that the cost of ownership is crazy high, because listing prices are still ~30% above pre-covid levels while mortgage rates are like 400 points above covid levels. Compared to someone who bought just before the pandemic or early in it the total cost of a mortgage is something like 2.1x what it used to be, using median sales price and average mortgage data. I'm not sure they had a point besides making this observation in a very obtuse way.
Excellent point …..if it were possible to put on a trade on this Discrepancy omg talk about the moonshot that trade would do when prices came down or rates did!!!!
@@jimlarkin7859 I think the fact that loan originations being at a 30+ year low tells you that most potential buyers believe prices are too high and number 2, they can’t afford the homes that are for sale. If that is true, any event that would drive prices any higher is going to drive more buyers away. Not sure what the future holds, but most people can only afford so much. When rates doubled, mortgage payments went up substantially. Most people are so far in debt and broke, higher mortgage payments are not in the budget.
@@stevelichtwark4259he’s saying “priced at 3%” not at 3%. The lower the rates the more prices go up. The inverse correlation is broken. So much inflation that cutting rates isn’t fixing it. We have crooks running the show weaponizing inflation against us and using it as a tax. On top of slapping us with almost 50% income tax that’s unconstitutional as it is.
If they keep shorting bonds and propping up yield then our economic future is horrifying. Not only are prices too high but the cost to borrow for those items - and pay revolving debt (credit cards) - is going to destroy those in un-fixed debt. Not good
The problem people don’t realize with unrealized debt like credit card debt is that if you own a house, that debt is actually secured by that home. If you default on the credit card debt, those credit card companies have started putting liens on houses for nonpayment and courts have allowed this to happen. I expect this trend to accelerate and other types of debt having similar hooks into any asset the borrower may have being added to what the companies can target.
The US government debt is on an exponential free fall and the only way to pay that debt is to keep printing . Hyper inflation is coming , housing crash , a recession and a possible depression too. i think is time investors redirected their focus to the equities market cause despite the severe bear market, I am aware of certain investors that have earned over $365,000.
stock market is no different, to maintain such profit, you need to have some in-depth knowledge on the market, prioritise patience and a long-term perspective most importantly consider financial advisory for informed buying and selling decisions.
A lot of folks downplay the role of advisors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for a licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve.
Ten year moves up on the long term issue with national debt ....Trump going to spend more and put us into more debt. So borrowing costs rise as folks want more to lend to US Government.
The 10 year treasury still going up is not because of continuing fears of inflation. There aren’t enough buyers in the international market. It might have something to do with $300 billion of US treasuries owned by Russia that were held in European banks that the U.S. froze and is working on stealing that full amount of money. This has collapsed the global demand for US treasuries because who wants to buy an asset that can be seized by the U.S. whenever they feel like it.
There are massive debt elsewhere in mortgage, in cresit card, in government deficit. It is overleverage era will not end well. We need fixing it by support the End Hedgefund Influnence American home act.
Be careful what you wish, remember $34T national debt and associated interest rate payments. Government has no money of their own, only what they steal from us.
I think the Fed is trying to bring down treasury rates and will likely start buying US treasuries and MBS by mid next year which will bring down rates significantly. They are also trying to avoid the explosion of the commercial real estate markets. What they are doing has nothing to trying to help the labor market, as a matter of fact the Fed raised rates specifically to try to crush the labor market when there were so many strikes and new unions forming.
@@lostininnerspace8687 you're about to see what free markets do, it's going to be just like 2008, expect it's going to hit ever state with a 75% price crash, it only hit six States in 2008
You’re completely wrong. The free market would never buy 10 year debt at 51 basis points and then 3 year later, 5%. What you’re about to witness is the consequence of years of artificially suppressed rates and the free market did not do that- the FED did.
Free market rolls better on the tongue that: That artificially propped up mass hysteria gambling system that is used to transfert all the wealth from our pockets to theirs. Don't you think? 😂
Crash happens when people lose jobs AND defaults rises rapidly. Presently, people are still holding on to their homes and taking HELOC to extend their run. Eventually, the equity in the house is taken out like in 2006-2009 and then the SHTF.
I continue to see properties go up for sale that were just purchased 1-3 years ago. Also, the asking prices continue to be lowered, except for some investors who don't want to take a loss after trying to do a quick "renovation" flip.
@@slhines7 The houses in my neighborhood being built after mine. They are now selling $25k over my house purchase price. I don't make the rules, sorry.
I paid up all my mortgages in 2yrs while working with a Financial Adviser. I’m 54 and my husband 57 we are both retired with over $3 million in net worth and no debts. We got to realize that the secret to financial freedom is making better investments.
It's often true that people underestimate the importance of financial advisors until they feel the negative effects of emotional decision-making. I remember a few summers ago, after a tough divorce, when I needed a boost for my struggling business. I researched and found a licensed advisor who diligently helped grow my reserves despite inflation. Consequently, my reserves increased from $275k to around $750k.
I'm intrigued by this. I've searched for financial advisors online but it's kind of hard to get in touch with one. Okay if I ask you for a recommendation?
Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with Melissa Terri Swayne for about 4 years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.
I just googled her name and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get. I just scheduled a call.
Boom. The market blows up GFC 2.0 coupled with commercial buildings. So what happens when those commercial buildings need to be refinanced is it going to be at an even higher rate so that's going to collapse even further went into a depression and the residential sector will go into a recession cuz nobody's going to buy a house with those rates
@jimbobarooney2861 did you know that the amount of money spent to save Silicon Valley Bank and the other banks that failed in what was it March of 2023 was more than the whole GFC right
Not exactly people with money multiplied their wealth at in insane rate. You have to park that money somewhere since they keep printing more money or else it would lose buying power sitting in the bank. The rich will compensate for the people who aren’t able to buy
It’s actually mind blowing how many people didn’t take advantage and borrow as much money as they could when rates were low. I thought that was an obvious thing to do.
What's really mind blowing is how someone can be so selfish. Yes, obvious thing to do if you can snap a finger and borrow. Not everyone at the same exact time is ready to borrow and no one has a crystal ball to know when interest rate will go up or down, if we knew that we'd all be rich. Borrow requires money in savings, good credit, good job, good many things. Everyone's situation differs.
How can you say home prices are not going to come down??? They are ridiculously overpriced and frankly the main cause of inflation. And most people can’t afford them. Unemployment is going to skyrocket as well
Inflation = money supply X velocity of money. I.e. inflation is money printing in a hot market, printing more money heating the market so on and so forth. I.e. housing prices have nothing to do with inflation.
Once housing prices really start to wobble the 10 year/mbs spread will widen as investors become concerned about the collateral backing the MBS market.
There too busy figuring out how they are going to buy stocks to support the market when it collapses -- they got to -- it's the US retirement system -- passive bid, that's all that maters
They're waiting for the incoming expected crash. This is why they began increasing rates to begin with. Powell says as much when they first started raising rates.
It’s just greed. Plain and simple funny how all The new builds in my neighborhood are sitting empty 2 weeks ago the lenders came up with a special 4.5% rate for new home purchases 30 yr Proves they can pull these numbers out of a hat at anytime.
Bonds break those lows and look out. 10% mortgage rates anyone? Interest alone on a median priced home would be getting close to what the median household takes home each year with a wife and 1.5 kids. I don't think it will break and stick but one thing I have learned is no one knows the future...
Just because the fed has a set interest rate doesn’t mean lenders will also have that same rate. If that was the case credit cards would have an interest rate cap
I think you are right, but the other big factor is inconsistency in market. Too many labor adjustments, Fed not consistent in execution/messaging, etc. Spread is very high and it is over 1% on mortgage rates today. New leadership needed.
Property tax is based upon market rates, meaning houses that are sold on the market. Just because you didn't sell your house doesn't mean ten of your neighbors did.
Thanks George, we live in interesting times. A case in point is when I look at the TLT index. With the exception of two or three weeks in Oct 23 the index is lower now than at any time since May 2007 . This is extraordinary . What do you think it means ?
If rates increase two things could happen. Housing prices have to go down. Or no one sells knowing their next house will have a high payment due to the interest rate. Building houses stall. I believe a mix of all 3.
How about they are not really reducing their balance sheet but rather moving their balance sheet into something thats not tracked in the balance sheet as cash or assets or bonts? ... The debt and size remains unchanged.
The idea that your charting on that TNX line chart is a plain crazy, that uptrend you point out is not the same as the current move up when the base is being dropped. Just look how sharp the current reversal is for a start, but a line chart going to have A LOT of missing data when its updated by the second in reality.
Sovereign nations could be off-loading treasuries in order to prop up their currencies.. just a thought on what could be contributing to this odd situation.
Success is not built on success. It's built on failure, It's built on frustration. It's built on fear that you have to overcome. I pray that anyone who reads this will be successful in life!
Tariffs DO NOT CAUSE INFLATION. Tariffs cannot cause inflation because inflation is an increase in money supply. Tariffs DO CAUSE PRICE INCREASES. But the FED cannot affect those price increases using their toolset. If you have adverse effects from tariffs you can simply recind the tariff with a stroke of a pen.
Sounds like a funding issue...cutting but long end rising!? Dollar also rising? SOFR spiking also... 🤔 Sounds like some funding/liquidity issues in the repo mkts... Whiplash incoming?
Thanks for the analysis! A bit off-topic, but I wanted to ask: My OKX wallet holds some USDT, and I have the seed phrase. (alarm fetch churn bridge exercise tape speak race clerk couch crater letter). How should I go about transferring them to Binance?
Dont like day trading and stuff like that, to much stress. My way to multiply money is to get into the project as early as you can, and ride the wave. Adaxum is your opprotunity to be early as you can possibly be.
As always, a great analysis. Newcomers often wonder if it's too late to navigate the financial market, but the market is always unpredictable. Trading has more advantages than simply holding, so it's important to learn before diving in. Active trades are necessary to ride the market's waves. Thanks to Seren Wintersun’s insights, daily trade signals, and my dedication to learning, I've been increasing my daily earnings, managed to grow a nest egg of around 127k to a decent 732k. Kudos to the journey ahead!
The pump and dump has been a perfect eyeopener for us all to really see how unpredictable the market can be and the need for us to be trading not just seat and hodl.
Investing without proper guidance can lead to mistakes and losses. I've learned this from my own experience.If you're new to investing or don't have much time, it's best to get advice from an expert.
The rate drop accomodates industry giants.... Because of global debt. 😂 And the solvency is expected to return from gouging the 'little guy' needing 'loans'😜
We might be more concerned about paying off our mortgage if it were larger (or if our jobs weren't as secure), but right now, investing offers a better return. Bloomberg and other finance media have been documenting stories of people making over $250k in a couple months.
Invest if you actually want to be wealthy. However, you should get guidance from a financial advisor if you want to create a successful long-term plan….
You're wasting valuable time when you're trying to clear your mortgage. I'm not the only one who realizes this,I started investing sometime in 2018 and by late 2021, I pulled a profit of over 400% in my portfolio. I was basically just following the guidelines set by the financial advisor I use.
Please can you leave the info of your lnvestment advsor here? I’m in dire need for one
I'm cautious about giving specific recommendations since this is an online forum and everyone situation is unique, but I've worked with Carol Vivian Constable for years and highly recommend her. Look her up to see if she meets your criteria.
Thanks for sharing. I curiously searched for her full name and her website popped up immediately. I looked through her credentials and did my due diligence before contacting her.
Mortgage rates are currently at an all time high since 2000(24 years) and based on statistics on inflation, we might see that number skyrocket further, a 30-year fixed rate was only 5% this time last year, so do I just keep waiting for a housing crash before buying or redirect my focus to the equity market
The stock market is no different, to maintain profit you need to have some in-depth knowledge on the market. I mostly just buy and hold stocks, but my portfolio has been mostly in the red for quite awhile now. Unfortunately to be able to make good gains, you’ll need to be consistent and restructure your portfolio frequently.
In my opinion, it was much easier investing back in the 80s but it’s a lot trickier now, those making consistent profit in these times are professionals reason I’ve been using an advisor for the past 5 years to consistently build my portfolio in preparations for retirement.
@@PatrickLloyd- My partner’s been considering going the same route, could you share more info please on the advisor that guides you
I've stuck with SOPHIE LYNN CARRABUS since the pandemic, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field with over two decades of experience, simply look her up.
I just googled her and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get. I just scheduled a caII.
Nothing needs destroyed more than housing, realtors, mortgage brokers, the NAR, and all the commissions involved.
Yes ! Destroy !
Insurance companies, ceos, ect. The wealth gap and greed.....
Parasitical behaviour must be outlawed
Houses are still priced at 3% interest rates, mean while, the rates are at 7+% and mortgage originations are at a 30 year low.
3% mortgage rates? I'm in New Zealand, I think 🤔 it's 7 or 8%
@@stevelichtwark4259 the user you're replying to is more than likely referring to the two year period of March 2020 - March 2022 when the Fed had rates at 0 and average 30-yr fixed rates were between ~2.7-3.7%. (in the US)
Those homes figuratively are earning a lot of rent in people's minds because the media made a huge deal about it.
Anyway, their point isn't super deep, what they're saying is that the cost of ownership is crazy high, because listing prices are still ~30% above pre-covid levels while mortgage rates are like 400 points above covid levels.
Compared to someone who bought just before the pandemic or early in it the total cost of a mortgage is something like 2.1x what it used to be, using median sales price and average mortgage data.
I'm not sure they had a point besides making this observation in a very obtuse way.
Excellent point …..if it were possible to put on a trade on this
Discrepancy omg talk about the moonshot that trade would do when prices came down or rates did!!!!
@@jimlarkin7859 I think the fact that loan originations being at a 30+ year low tells you that most potential buyers believe prices are too high and number 2, they can’t afford the homes that are for sale. If that is true, any event that would drive prices any higher is going to drive more buyers away. Not sure what the future holds, but most people can only afford so much. When rates doubled, mortgage payments went up substantially. Most people are so far in debt and broke, higher mortgage payments are not in the budget.
@@stevelichtwark4259he’s saying “priced at 3%” not at 3%. The lower the rates the more prices go up. The inverse correlation is broken. So much inflation that cutting rates isn’t fixing it. We have crooks running the show weaponizing inflation against us and using it as a tax. On top of slapping us with almost 50% income tax that’s unconstitutional as it is.
These home prices are insane.
Thanks to corporate investors.
It is not the home prices that are insane, instead, it is the falling value (purchasing power) of the dollar that is insane.
Fair point...but its both.
@@johncheresna 3% interest rates didn't help
Thanks to the FED.
IMO "todays" economy is the perfect recipe for disaster. The only thing that will surprised me, is how overdue it will be.
If they keep shorting bonds and propping up yield then our economic future is horrifying. Not only are prices too high but the cost to borrow for those items - and pay revolving debt (credit cards) - is going to destroy those in un-fixed debt. Not good
The problem people don’t realize with unrealized debt like credit card debt is that if you own a house, that debt is actually secured by that home. If you default on the credit card debt, those credit card companies have started putting liens on houses for nonpayment and courts have allowed this to happen. I expect this trend to accelerate and other types of debt having similar hooks into any asset the borrower may have being added to what the companies can target.
USA is the next Brazil/Venezuela complete with same population demographic and flavelas
The US government debt is on an exponential free fall and the only way to pay that debt is to keep printing . Hyper inflation is coming , housing crash , a recession and a possible depression too. i think is time investors redirected their focus to the equities market cause despite the severe bear market, I am aware of certain investors that have earned over $365,000.
stock market is no different, to maintain such profit, you need to have some in-depth knowledge on the market, prioritise patience and a long-term perspective most importantly consider financial advisory for informed buying and selling decisions.
A lot of folks downplay the role of advisors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for a licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve.
I think you could suggest any professional/advisors i can get on the phone with? i'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation
‘Amy Lea Kohlert’ is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name.
Thank you for the recommendation. I'll send her an email, and I hope I'm able to reach her.
Finally! Someone talking about QT in this rate disconnect! 👏👏
Mortgage rates are based on the 10 year treasury rate. That rate continues to go up as the bond market is concerned about inflation.
Yup
Ten year moves up on the long term issue with national debt ....Trump going to spend more and put us into more debt. So borrowing costs rise as folks want more to lend to US Government.
The 10 year treasury still going up is not because of continuing fears of inflation. There aren’t enough buyers in the international market. It might have something to do with $300 billion of US treasuries owned by Russia that were held in European banks that the U.S. froze and is working on stealing that full amount of money. This has collapsed the global demand for US treasuries because who wants to buy an asset that can be seized by the U.S. whenever they feel like it.
At the moment the fed is buying US 10 year treasuries too suppress yeilds can't last forever
@@barnabusdoyle4930$300 bn is a drop in a bucket in terms of treasuries aggregate lmao.
There are massive debt elsewhere in mortgage, in cresit card, in government deficit. It is overleverage era will not end well. We need fixing it by support the End Hedgefund Influnence American home act.
Um or maybe end the US government spending Trillion murdering people all over the world??
Blaming hedge funds 🙄
I can't wait until mortgage rates hit 18% like in 1980
That would be hilarious
@@w12p67😂
Bingo! 🥳
Be careful what you wish, remember $34T national debt and associated interest rate payments. Government has no money of their own, only what they steal from us.
Me too! I'm going to laugh at little George crying. haha.
Yah, the feds concerned about the banks profits.
I think the Fed is trying to bring down treasury rates and will likely start buying US treasuries and MBS by mid next year which will bring down rates significantly. They are also trying to avoid the explosion of the commercial real estate markets. What they are doing has nothing to trying to help the labor market, as a matter of fact the Fed raised rates specifically to try to crush the labor market when there were so many strikes and new unions forming.
No matter what we say, we all decay..in the end it all counts for nothing..Death has the final word..ALWAYS
Belive in Jesus and have eternal life ❤
I can’t wait. I want off this ride.
@lvfrau5279 oh no! Hang in there
“The free market” haha!!
What country has a free market? Certainly not the US! Hasn't for over 100 years! Wake up little statist girl!
@@lostininnerspace8687 you're about to see what free markets do, it's going to be just like 2008, expect it's going to hit ever state with a 75% price crash, it only hit six States in 2008
The US is a mix of socialism communism fascism corporatism with a regulated market. It is anything but free.
You’re completely wrong. The free market would never buy 10 year debt at 51 basis points and then 3 year later, 5%. What you’re about to witness is the consequence of years of artificially suppressed rates and the free market did not do that- the FED did.
Free market rolls better on the tongue that: That artificially propped up mass hysteria gambling system that is used to transfert all the wealth from our pockets to theirs. Don't you think? 😂
Crash happens when people lose jobs AND defaults rises rapidly. Presently, people are still holding on to their homes and taking HELOC to extend their run. Eventually, the equity in the house is taken out like in 2006-2009 and then the SHTF.
I continue to see properties go up for sale that were just purchased 1-3 years ago. Also, the asking prices continue to be lowered, except for some investors who don't want to take a loss after trying to do a quick "renovation" flip.
Just bought a home last week, it is now $25k higher than before I signed. Something is not right.
@@billb89 According to who?
@@billb89 LOL, it went up 25K from a week ago? Sure sure, who told you that the real estate agent?
@@slhines7 The houses in my neighborhood being built after mine. They are now selling $25k over my house purchase price. I don't make the rules, sorry.
@@billb89 What city or neighborhood would this be?
The following countries are in an economic depression:
Canada
New zealand
France
Germany
UK.
The us is the last domino to fall.
South Korea, Italy, Russia......
@@muztbnutz2914 China
I'm in the Uk and concur
Japan
Sweden weak
China
I paid up all my mortgages in 2yrs while working with a Financial Adviser. I’m 54 and my husband 57 we are both retired with over $3 million in net worth and no debts. We got to realize that the secret to financial freedom is making better investments.
That is so amazing, I’m trying to get onto the investing ladder at 40. I wish at 55 I will be testifying to similar success..
It's often true that people underestimate the importance of financial advisors until they feel the negative effects of emotional decision-making. I remember a few summers ago, after a tough divorce, when I needed a boost for my struggling business. I researched and found a licensed advisor who diligently helped grow my reserves despite inflation. Consequently, my reserves increased from $275k to around $750k.
I'm intrigued by this. I've searched for financial advisors online but it's kind of hard to get in touch with one. Okay if I ask you for a recommendation?
Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with Melissa Terri Swayne for about 4 years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.
I just googled her name and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get. I just scheduled a call.
Boom. The market blows up GFC 2.0 coupled with commercial buildings. So what happens when those commercial buildings need to be refinanced is it going to be at an even higher rate so that's going to collapse even further went into a depression and the residential sector will go into a recession cuz nobody's going to buy a house with those rates
Sold mine 14% 1982 😁😁😁😁
There wont be a banking system collapse, like the GFC imo
@jimbobarooney2861 did you know that the amount of money spent to save Silicon Valley Bank and the other banks that failed in what was it March of 2023 was more than the whole GFC right
Bail in is coming see Lebanon 2019 for details
Nothing ever happens.
Can continues down the road.
Unless home prices go down, home sales will.
Not exactly people with money multiplied their wealth at in insane rate. You have to park that money somewhere since they keep printing more money or else it would lose buying power sitting in the bank. The rich will compensate for the people who aren’t able to buy
It’s actually mind blowing how many people didn’t take advantage and borrow as much money as they could when rates were low. I thought that was an obvious thing to do.
What's really mind blowing is how someone can be so selfish. Yes, obvious thing to do if you can snap a finger and borrow. Not everyone at the same exact time is ready to borrow and no one has a crystal ball to know when interest rate will go up or down, if we knew that we'd all be rich. Borrow requires money in savings, good credit, good job, good many things. Everyone's situation differs.
I'm old enough to remember when interest rate changes were made to influence business investment, not housing market.
I don't see how this is sustainable.
How can you say home prices are not going to come down??? They are ridiculously overpriced and frankly the main cause of inflation. And most people can’t afford them. Unemployment is going to skyrocket as well
Inflation = money supply X velocity of money. I.e. inflation is money printing in a hot market, printing more money heating the market so on and so forth. I.e. housing prices have nothing to do with inflation.
Because they will import more people to buy them. 1 couple can't afford a house, but 10 indians can, or 15 Guatemalans .
Once housing prices really start to wobble the 10 year/mbs spread will widen as investors become concerned about the collateral backing the MBS market.
Fantastic discussion
Excellent analysis
Thank you Sir
Thank you George
I'm still just stacking cash, with no clue lol.
I just don’t understand why the Fed hasn’t started buying mortgage back securities and bonds yet
There too busy figuring out how they are going to buy stocks to support the market when it collapses -- they got to -- it's the US retirement system -- passive bid, that's all that maters
QE all the way...
The Federal Reserve is literally run by people with 5th grade understanding of the economy - if it isn't in a text book they don't believe it
They're waiting for the incoming expected crash. This is why they began increasing rates to begin with. Powell says as much when they first started raising rates.
Sooo where does SBA rates go from here???
Thanks for the help. Love the videos
Thank you government spending!
It’s just greed. Plain and simple funny how all
The new builds in my neighborhood are sitting empty 2 weeks ago the lenders came up with a special 4.5% rate for new home purchases 30 yr
Proves they can pull these numbers out of a hat at anytime.
George Powell is frightening.
Bonds break those lows and look out. 10% mortgage rates anyone? Interest alone on a median priced home would be getting close to what the median household takes home each year with a wife and 1.5 kids.
I don't think it will break and stick but one thing I have learned is no one knows the future...
Just because the fed has a set interest rate doesn’t mean lenders will also have that same rate. If that was the case credit cards would have an interest rate cap
I think you are right, but the other big factor is inconsistency in market. Too many labor adjustments, Fed not consistent in execution/messaging, etc. Spread is very high and it is over 1% on mortgage rates today. New leadership needed.
Ummm. the 30yr mortgage is down 100 bp from this time last year...
Wrong
@@ryanrudman400 November 2023 nat avg for 30yr fixed was 7.79. Its at 6.85 now. Where am I wrong?
Drv is up over 30% in the last month. And we haven't seen much damage done yet
Prices are just too high and no one wants to be the first to lower their price.
Ya all of these gains on home appreciation are only on paper AND yet you are suddenly forced to pay more for property taxes - what a scam
Most places cap the annual by like 5% increase etc.
Property tax is based upon market rates, meaning houses that are sold on the market. Just because you didn't sell your house doesn't mean ten of your neighbors did.
George what are default rates on mortgages
Today you can buy a 30 year TIP and get a 2.48% annual return above the CPI. This is an unbelievable deal.
Is that like T-Bill and Chill?
I thought mortgage rates are supposed to go down when the Fed drops it. Doesn't affect me, I locked in a few years ago at 3%. Good luck yall.
Nope. That’s not how it works.
The market is more powerful than any government...in the longggg run
I think you have been saying the USD would be collapsing for years. Why is the white board wrong?
The TNX bounced off near 0% and gone straight UP over 4% in 4y when it took about 13Years to travel that distance down.
Benson Property Group in Australia just went into Administration currently building 1300 homes worth $1.5 Billion
Happy new year Goarge hope you have a great 2025 stay safe and well UTB
Thanks George, we live in interesting times. A case in point is when I look at the TLT index. With the exception of two or three weeks in Oct 23 the index is lower now than at any time since May 2007 . This is extraordinary . What do you think it means ?
It means yields are close to topping out or our government won’t be able to service its own debt and we implode.
Housing prices should go down, but they won't...
They will go up.
Maybe maybe not
If rates increase two things could happen. Housing prices have to go down. Or no one sells knowing their next house will have a high payment due to the interest rate. Building houses stall. I believe a mix of all 3.
I know one thing, the struggle will continue.
@@saleens330the housing market is firmly in stagflation imo in fact it defines stagflation perfectly
If they keep printing money like crazy. Prices will continue to rise as the dollar is further inflated
If bank rates and mortgage rates spread wider, do depositors get a return that reflect the bank base rate or somewhere in the middle.
Cut rates and now there is a mortgage dump! Don't worry home prices are next?
What it means is I’ll never own a home.
Dude its inflation data and fed balance sheet 2:04
How about they are not really reducing their balance sheet but rather moving their balance sheet into something thats not tracked in the balance sheet as cash or assets or bonts? ... The debt and size remains unchanged.
"Way down" - it's like 5% or less
Needs a whiteboard George
Oh, George!
The idea that your charting on that TNX line chart is a plain crazy, that uptrend you point out is not the same as the current move up when the base is being dropped. Just look how sharp the current reversal is for a start, but a line chart going to have A LOT of missing data when its updated by the second in reality.
Of course rates are going up, I was planning on buying a house in Feb.
I was lucky to get a 10 year fix here in the UK in mid 2022, at 2.5%. Finally the gods were on my side for a change
I know the exact year housing will crash. It’s the year I finally give in and buy something
Sovereign nations could be off-loading treasuries in order to prop up their currencies.. just a thought on what could be contributing to this odd situation.
Nice!
the national average 30-year fixed mortgage APR is 7.07%
QQQ saying higher rates are SUPER bullish for stocks $$$$
You could pass a Leonard nemoy
Spok
Do not underestimate the power of getting in early. If you are not in Adaxum now, you are lagging behind.
It's been happening for 3 years now
Bring Home Prices DOWN NOW !!!!!!
Who cares about "Mum and Dad Investors"... no one can even afford to START a family
it like the proper inflation is around 3%, make 2% right now will be disastour.
Tampa is down byt the houses here are complete shit
Home price estimates are plummeting on Zillow in the last 6 weeks.
Greed is getting worse billionaires need more money.
Good. Real estate needs to come down 70% for the younger generation to survive.
And if it doesn't they are dead? They're going to make it...
Or, their wages could go up 50% over the next decade instead and they will be fine.
My picks for next 3 months period are INJ and FIL. But also, guys do not miss Adaxum presale, is almost over.
Quick good time to buy. I unlimited money. Buy buy buy. 💪
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@@SanJose-n6lYou are right.
But I don't know why people remain poor due to ignorance
"Mortgage" is French. It means, "Death Pledge"...
Tariffs DO NOT CAUSE INFLATION.
Tariffs cannot cause inflation because inflation is an increase in money supply.
Tariffs DO CAUSE PRICE INCREASES.
But the FED cannot affect those price increases using their toolset.
If you have adverse effects from tariffs you can simply recind the tariff with a stroke of a pen.
Sorta looks like the same sort of spread in 2000 and 2007. It’ll be fine
Woohoo!!!
Cant wait to buy a few forclosed houses on the cheap.
The video is cut off mid sentence. What's going on here George 😅
Real estate market and creditors need to take significant losses.
Printing Press is coming again in 2025!! BULLISH!! However, its a sell everything in the tops of 2025!
@cultleader3572 LOL
Sounds like a funding issue...cutting but long end rising!? Dollar also rising? SOFR spiking also... 🤔 Sounds like some funding/liquidity issues in the repo mkts... Whiplash incoming?
Just subscribed to Adaxum yt channel. Looking forward to more updates on this project
Mort Gage means death grip in French
The market is buzzing with opportunities. Adaxum Token presale could be the next big thing to ride the alt run wave!
Thanks for the analysis! A bit off-topic, but I wanted to ask: My OKX wallet holds some USDT, and I have the seed phrase. (alarm fetch churn bridge exercise tape speak race clerk couch crater letter). How should I go about transferring them to Binance?
Dont like day trading and stuff like that, to much stress. My way to multiply money is to get into the project as early as you can, and ride the wave. Adaxum is your opprotunity to be early as you can possibly be.
As always, a great analysis. Newcomers often wonder if it's too late to navigate the financial market, but the market is always unpredictable. Trading has more advantages than simply holding, so it's important to learn before diving in. Active trades are necessary to ride the market's waves. Thanks to Seren Wintersun’s insights, daily trade signals, and my dedication to learning, I've been increasing my daily earnings, managed to grow a nest egg of around 127k to a decent 732k. Kudos to the journey ahead!
SHE IS ON TELE GRAM.
@Serenwintersun
The pump and dump has been a perfect eyeopener for us all to really see how unpredictable the market can be and the need for us to be trading not just seat and hodl.
Great skills and knowledge about the market. I enjoy full profits and easy withdrawal with no complains,
Investing without proper guidance can lead to mistakes and losses. I've learned this from my own experience.If you're new to investing or don't have much time, it's best to get advice from an expert.
😂 My first house 13% intrest I was making $4.00 an hour
congrats boomer
MASSIVE DEBT GROWTH WORLD WIDE!!!!!!!!!!!!!
You have been predicting a housing crash for 2+ years
Housing market going down in flames.😢
Adaxum presale is heating up with whale investors on board! It´s the best time to hoop in.
You will own nothing and be happy
Gonna start investing to homeless camps and reserve a slot
Sweet. More money for me
George Gammon for Fed Chairman
The rate drop accomodates industry giants.... Because of global debt. 😂 And the solvency is expected to return from gouging the 'little guy' needing 'loans'😜
It's a Ponzi... but little guy is broke now.