Dalio, Summers on Inflation, Restructuring the Global Economy
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 3 ต.ค. 2024
- Jun.21 -- Ray Dalio, founder, co-chairman and co-chief investment officer, Bridgewater Associates and Lawrence H. Summers, Charles W. Eliot University professor and president emeritus, Harvard University; former U.S. treasury secretary, speak with Stephanie Flanders, Bloomberg Senior Executive Editor for Economics at the Qatar Economic Forum, powered by Bloomberg.
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It feels that Dalio is just more advanced in his thinking than Summers. Much more pragmatic and simple, which is a sign of greater wisdom. Team Dalio 💯
Dalio is irrelevant, it's whether his view has more evidence
I think summers is much more confident in his remarks
An example of theory vs practical knowledge.
When you’ve got a Harvard economist and one of the most successful hedge fund managers in the world with an amazing breadth of economic knowledge and experience having a disagreement on the outlook you had best believe the people running the fed don’t agree either.
It’s not about agreeing with either one because who the fuck are we??? What you should recognize is that 2 brilliant minds in the same field can’t even agree on the probable outcomes and to me that’s a sign that we are in for some ROUGH days ahead because if they don’t know what’s coming or what the proper reaction is neither do the people with the power to pull the actual levers that dictate fiscal policy.
She had the longest opening question I’ve ever heard
🤣🤣🤣
"Its not clear which way to go" because you are trying to tweak a system that is fundamentally broken and requires the political will to change at a fundamental level.
I'm on Ray dalio's side. Already put 1/3 of my currency into precious metals.
I assume the Qatar Economic Forum is linked to the World Economic Forum, a Private organisation run by unelected officials. Why are they restructuring the global economy? This is the responsibility of the governments WE elect. These orgs are run by private individuals
Could not agree more
Don’t like it do something about it, otherwise stop moaning
We elect???? Government's are selected, not elected. Sorry, but you are deluded. While we're doing a Reality check you best scrap any notion that either party makes any difference. The people in control aren't elected - think the 3 letter agencies and ppl in the FED. The only way to change the current system it to get out of it.
Thanks and much respect and appreciation to Ray Dalio for always saying the difficult reality and deep truths. Enlightening as always.
Ray Dalio has a great thought process and explains it really well. Larry Summers was so annoy to listen to I had to fast forward through his parts
Ray is an actual investor. The Larry dude is a talking head professor.
Always so enlightening listening to Ray :)
Why that old man set that example about that car having an accident when Ray's son died some months ago in one? I am not even going to label that but it seems that having a big brain doesn't necessarily come with having a big heart.
Lots of love Ray 💞 I think you have both
If he didn’t know about Ray’s son accident, it’s hardly his fault..
Ray should hv taken a year off
I agree .hopefully he didn't know .or he's a real moron!
The old guy you were referring to is 66 yo while Ray is 71 yo. Lol
@@antonramli LOL Ray does look younger for some reason.
This is going to be a nightmare
Just what I want to hear from a Harvard economist, a tortured metaphor of caution with an indecipherable solution.
There may be no solution. We may need a correction to reset valuations.
A debt jubilee, of which only the upper crust will be privy, because they need hosts in which to leech.
Here's the solution in FED's mind. Just keep manipulating the market or public sentiment with jaw boning, fake data and propaganda until they can't. It's the only solution, not overt inflating debt away nor bravely deflating it off.
Say what? 😅
Devaluing the Dollar seems to be an advantage for sellers.
Do we have enough products to satisfy demand?
Yeah, it's a good thing for exporters but America has a trade deficit (imports more than what it exports) and is the largest importer in the world. A devaluation of the dollar should be a nightmare, at least in theory
Price increases in everything and interest rate hikes to prevent a sell-off of treasuries, would crush the consumers!
@@ThePorschefan the inflation that the overheated western states are now living with, should stimulate food prices into next year.....
What are the plans to refill the contents of Lake Mead?
Who is going to provide rent money after parents feed their children?
The "Economy" is an intangible item, people are a lot easier to understand. What kind of solution does the "Economy" offer,
to the children and cattle who seem to see no relief?
Thanks for sharing will, watch the whole thing- two great minds
Crazy to hear Ray actually say the words that he thinks we're forming a bubble. It's not surprising, but this is a milestone in recognizing that we could have some serious trouble ahead.
It's not the first time he's said it. Look him up on TH-cam. He does a great interview with yahoo finance. He's also put out his recommendation for the average person on how to position your portfolio for the upcoming crash.
He has another video saying it's individual stocks that are in a bubble not the market as a whole.
Honestly the big mistake by the federal reserve has been propping up the 'broad market' of corporate bonds in order to appear as if they are neutral. If a corporation's product is out of demand due to a crisis for which they didn't prepare for, they should have been left alone to wither and die, or private investors could make loans at higher yields to them if they choose. Even if painful and extremely damaging to economies to lose our airlines (which also ship cargo), all that malinvestment could have gone toward safer (for passengers), cleaner (for environment) means of shipping or travel. Broad market support in the short term helps, in the long term hurts because politicians are not economists and do not understand what to do to use what the fed makes available to shore America up for the future of a declining, aging population that will have less arable land and declining water. See megadrought in the west.
@@aorolecall I was predicting the Economy might not survive Covid last year. The lingering effects of a population that had time to inspect their priorities, has come home to roost in Wall Street.
If Traders lay an egg and overlook inflation, Global Warming, and the desire of parents to provide a future for their children, they do deserve the fate that overconfident traders felt in 1929.....
@@aorolecall You missed the workers in all the industries you wanted to leave and let them die: horeca, tourism, aviaindustry, small shops, coffeshops, hotels, motels, amusement, cinema, etc. The fed is supporting aggregate demand and subsidies the companies who are hiring people, they support the labor market.
I don’t know why but Summers" condescending tone, patronizing voice and harsh accent always annoyed the shit out of me.
For those of you scoffing at Dalio's comment about rent declining: As of May 2021, here are ten cities where average one-bedroom rents are decreasing
1.San Francisco
Rents have decreased 45%
2. Chesapeake, Virginia
Rents have decreased 29.4%
3. Manhattan
Rent have decreased 27.3%
4. Long Beach, California
Rents have decreased 27%
5. Colorado Springs, Colorado
Rents have decreased 24.6%
6. Seattle
Rents have decreased 18.9%
7. San Jose, California
Rents have decreased 16.2%
8. Los Angeles
Rents have decreased 16.0%
9. Jersey City, New Jersey
Rents have decreased 15.5%
10. San Antonio, Texas
Rents have decreased 15.4%
Are rents declining to pre-pandemic levels though?
1- bedroom rents are up nationally 5.2% as of the end of May. Would anyone like to guess when most people sign new leases?
Source? And compared to when?
Decreased rent corresponding to decreased demand as people flee the increased crime of big blue cities while gaining the ability to work any where.
JP, your comment and Dalio's comment have aged exceedingly poorly.
Too many ads - terrible audio quality
How do you navigate all these different opinions?
Everyone thinks they are right and no one agrees.
diversify
Go with history
Trust your intuition Jill
@@CosmicSeeker69 Thank you for the affirmation. Wish I had more experience with the markets to couple my intuition.
Damn, Larry dropped the ball here on this one.
How?
Both did.Inlation is much higher than any figures they quoted.
@@junktex thank you for clarifying.
Are you using the CPI as measurement or another index?
just fast forward whenever Larry Summers speaks to get to the good parts where Dalio spits the truth haha
this conversation makes me want not to go to harvard... Peter Theil was right about universities. they are in a bubble
If you are able to attend top academic college any ivy or if you prefer a smaller more interaction with professors.
There are a few if you don’t know them already, they are in the US news and world report, several are more difficult to get in than Harvard.
Based on applications to acceptance, Also you would miss out on the “college experience “ by not attending.
@@lvpatfleming7465 you are SO Blind that's unreal. Oh, sorry, I forgot. This is my first time on Bloomberg and it's the mainstream narrative - Keynes rules - over common sense! The Ivy's only turn out brainwashed clones of MMT. That's exactly WHY we are where we are now.
Good man, someone understands - now wean yourself off of Bloomberg and find independent channels (Maneco64 maybe)
Only Sharma disposable income formula
Has accurately predicted stock market since 2009
This is what happens when you hand all the power to a private organization who's goal is to own everything = FED
i believe even governments = butchers and public = cattles
And who owns the FED - It's neither federal or has any reserves. Jekyll Island 1913 sealed your fate
Rental prices are not going dwn at least not in NV 3 mo ago a one bed apt was 775 now its 899 to 999
My one bedroom is $1650 here in MD😢😢
Fact is, hyperinflation here is imminent, people need to get financially prepared for what's coming, good thing is people are getting to know cash/fiat is pretty much stone age at this point, it
is designated to fail eventually, 3 BEST and surprisingly easy ways to double or hold your funds in 2021; Real Estate, Gold, Who can guess the 3rd??
Obviously has to be stock trading for me though, made my first half a million through it as a newbie after I met a professional from a reputable firm, retiring next year with absolutely no fears
@@tomlogan612 Congrats in advance on your retirement, that's impressive big bucks, personally tried doing that on my own with no luck for sometime now .Who is this professional you worked with please and how does it work?
@@carysalazar5374 Alisan P Martin, met her at a fundraiser in Connecticut, she's been in the news when she
revived Grumac company in 2018. You can look her up on the web for info on her work, PS-No promo
stripping? onlyfans?? I could go on and on lol
@@tomlogan612
lol small world, I was at the annual fund raiser in Stamford, CT as well, great speaker
Dalio's public calls are ALWAYS wrong! Fade his suggestions always! Remember folks, last summer he said that the DOW would be at 14,000 and we would be in a major Depression right now. He called a major drop in stocks when the DOW was at the bottom!!
Larry Summers speaking about a car accident like hitting Dalio under the belt
isnt there only a shortage of labour because the government is paying people to not work? I assume that will fade once we stop getting free money?
@Orlando Perez agree but if we are going to continue to do UBI isn't that deflationary and not inflationary?
These financial people make billions, create no products and are taxed at a long-term Capitol tax rate on profit. Working people are taxed at the highest. It should be reversed.
The fed cannot raise rates, or they will crash the stock market. Basically what Ray is saying here. Either way, it's going to crash though. The fed just mentioning that they will likely raise rates in 2023, made everyone freak out.
Raising rates collapses everything
Isn’t the bond market the biggest bubble? Maybe it’s time to end it
Ray is Gold
Well said dalio
Particularly worried about particular situations
Rent is going down? Lol obviously this dude doesnt rent.
Statistical numbers.
So gold?
Belangp channel....
Interviewer 1st question done @ 1:34
The rich man gets richer while the poor man has kids. Your choice. Live and let live.
Why is dalio saying rental prices going down? What planet does he lives on?
USA use to have unique way of suppressing inflation by transferring the wealth to top 1% thus it will only inflated top 1% asset. Thus when stimulus was for helping the bottom 99% things might get out of hand!
Really Larry? The 60’s, gold standard economy, is your best model for what’s happening now? Plus a rambling wooly digression and oversimplification of decades long political trends? What’s in the water at Harvard?
Totally agree.
Regarding Larry's CV, it's hard to believe that he didn't count the Debt per GDP in his explanation.
40% Debt/GDP in late 60s is far behind 127% at the moment with much more to come according to Biden's policy.
it really does matter.
Agree completely. He sounds like Peter Schiff... overly emotional and insanely simplistic.
@@s.m.281 And let's not even start with household debt!
@@bradleyboyer9979 buy gold. It really is that simple
@@user-tl5yb1jy7c No, it's not. I've been deflation-pilled by Lacy Hunt.
GoodYear Tire is going to be a great one. It had a nice pullback and now it has room to run again
No
@@richbalkissoon5322 Yes. Watch tomorrow (Friday) Gap up time
Dalio is correct that bonds return is negative after inflation but it's clear that he is wrong regarding demand since there has been, and still is, more then enough demand even for bonds where the coupon is negative. Seems to me people are buying bonds not to hold until expiration and guarantee an net loss but rathar as a hedge and to trade ie sell when the rates go lower.
Yup. Definition of a bond bubble. Get some gold and pray.
@@user-tl5yb1jy7c I did
I am!
The labour-market dichotomy is no longer appropriate for understanding the macro context. While it doesn’t have a human constituency, the earth system will make itself known if it is ignored. Climate and zero-carbon need to be a third pillar of global economic policy. The US has to reduce carbon consumption by 10x to 13x within a decade. That means rising prices of everything, with massive redistribution. Living standards will decline unless a shift from growth to wellbeing is implemented. However, industrial and energy restructuring are unavoidable, while the impact on the financial sector should not be disorderly. Agriculture and transportation need to be rethought immediately. Delaying increases costs, reduces effectiveness, and speeds transition time. There is no better opportunity for structural economic change than a moment of juncture, such as now.
That line seems to be ignored by the investor class, till they get hungry....
If an adult over 40 doesn't realize by now that no one knows the future of the stock market and the economy period, than they are going to be forever disappointed in their expectations. How come no one in Economics or even the political talking heads never mention the wage deflation brought on by the end of Economic Communism around 1990? The former Economic Communist nations added perhaps as many as 1.5 billion new low wage workers to the Capitalist work force. That many new low wage workers in such a short time has never, afaik, ever happened in the history of Capitalism. Yet no one ever talks about it? Why don't they?
These two need to be tried for treason
Time for something new.
Fed is focused on CBDCs, unfortunately.
I could see a combo of monthly UBI + Negative rates.
Example : 2k/mo that will decrease daily until it 0 at end of the month. So spend spend spend to get the economy moving. Once a balance is found the will lower/ remove UBI and raise rates.
🤷♂️
Political unrest after ubi removed tho
Summers is intolerable
THANK YOU!
Be careful with this, the SP500 is almost completing the cycle of 144, ($ 4,320 / 360 °) = 12, and therefore, 12 x 12 is equivalent to 144, and there are also 12 5-minute candles missing to reach noon, and likewise it is equivalent to 144. In summary, it seems that time and price are coinciding perfectly for an imminent turn in the trend. Let's see what happens according to William Gann.
Tax increase in future puts a date on the market correction and a number for quants to crunch... Markets love certainty 😃
If I had a million dollars and a shot of whiskey for every time someone said err....ehh.....ahhh....ummmm....I would be rich and tipsy
Look at the Sahm Rule, if we are between the 70s (Ray) and 80s (Larry) we will have a double dip
Terrific discussion
the clash of the titans
buy this man a mic man
Rental prices going down a lot?? They have a saying in MBA school "Pin the tail on the economist" LOL. Sorry Ray
commercial rents
Ray is about numbers, Larry is all about bla bla bla
= real world Vs academic.
Dalio is all about placing his usual China marketing plugs wherever he can.
What a sad way to end a career.
@@michaelitsol yeah. One dying grasp at more MONEY!!!!
Are there real entities buying $30 trillion in US government bonds?
Wow, I never realized how unimpressive Larry Summers is.
then you should learn more about Larry
@@liquidaludwig5540 Ha! Good one.
Interesting discussion between a practitioner and theorist. Ray sounds so much better and more practical whereas Lawrence vague (cautious) ...lots of words and posturing... Ray boom.. down to the point... I'd definitely would rather speak to Ray than Lawrence
Anyone else short on everything?
Not physical gold and silver.
@@erichale6557 😉
Larry / Bill Gates - close your eyes. Can you tell the difference?
I can't believe that any individual or group of individuals thinks they can figure out how to "solve" the global economy. This stuff is far more complicated than any economist or group thereof could understand let alone effectively manage. All this interventionism on the part of central banks is profoundly stupid. How about no one gets to print money ever and we let the market decide what interest rates should be because no one can figure out how to centrally plan a globalized economy.
Sometimes the hardest thing for bureaucrats and economists to do is to do nothing and just let there be short term pain. If only we had a currency that no one could manipulate, would allow for true market interest rates (not the bullshit 0% set by the fed), and could be taken into personal custody so it couldn't be monopolized. Oh wait we do. It's return is over 100,000% since its inception. Trust math. Don't trust central bankers.
I refuse to listen to Larry Summers, part of the problem.
A bit of hate for Summers it seems. I'm not sure what he did to deserve it. Is it anti-intellectualism? Summers seems to me to be one of the better thinkers on the unfolding situation, Dalio too.
Larry has it right
How did this mainstream Bullshit get on my feed this is the worse trash talk I have ever heard .
Jeez that was painful. These 2 guys trying to carefully pick their words so as not to say just tooo much. Or be toooo negative. Uhhh. Ummmm. Just tell it like it is.
Summers is stuck to the textbook definition of inflation, which is a 1 type only of inflation. The fact he is not even accounting other type of inflations, like Dalio does, is making this whole conversation meaningless and intellectually boring.
How to get it back my principles with my dignity and my integrity to win and winning to get it back my justice if these people and these company’s involves and involvements behind the scenes if the money involves to covering up and blockings to controls and controlling the true and truth accountability and transparency to hides, hiding and hidden behinds the scenes..
Um eh umh eh unmhh most important point.
Rental prices are not going down…
Eviction moratorium ending, it is inevitable. Maybe a 30 day extension but landlords get fed up and make up reasons for the eviction to go forward (unruly tenant, threats against life etc)
Nice content! This video got me.... LoL
Every other thing sounded alien to me...I feel like I'm missing out on a lot. Help anybody??
You have to start to learn
How?🤔🤔
@@Ilme-AALIM Yeah, how? This is an uncharted terrain for me,and information out there is overwhelming.
@@mooredarcy2165 LoL when you say overwhelming information, you make it sound like conventional school. How to learn is to have someone, an expert if you will to trade for you, while they're at it you'll learn.
Phillip Bolton is your man. He's good and kind too!
War will end soon. Start investing
now. Get rich later.
Larry Summers taking a shot at LBJ....he's got a lot fing balls.
Based, Ray and Larry totgether
I hates money involves to blocked and blockings to hides,hiding and hidden the true and truths accountability ,transparency and transparent documents information files.
?
@@goof260 ignore it. It's a confused robot 🤖🤖 beep boop
Yes it’s called the wealth effect
A Stagflation Hangover followed by Long Term Deflation .
I believed in Ray
Both are wrong deflation is going to be the problem… debt is money and our country/businesses are insolvent. What happens when debt can’t be paid money/asset disappear which is highly deflationary. We shut down the services/production of our economy yet gave people more money and increased demand. More money chasing fewer goods and got a meager 5% on the CPI. When the stimulus runs out and people return to their job that pays them less what will happen the answer is deflation
More money is chasing fewer goods ...means deflation? Make up your mind what means what 😉
If people come back to work they will have less money? ...and more if they stay home doing nothing 😁.
Is it a new definition of US capitalism?
Watching the bond market tell these inflationistas to get bent has been the second most satisfying thing... after making bank on ZROZ and TLT.
Yeah ask the billionaires how they want the economy to be shaped. Nice job
"...rising interest rates."
LS
Not going to happen. US can't afford higher rates than zero.
AM
They might not have a choice.
@@Phl3xable rampant inflation/destroy the value of the dollar will "inflate the debt away." No?
Ray just can’t stay away from the camera
Arithmetic is not hard, it’s racist
💚💜💚💜💚😘😘😘
Voice sounds like it's coming out of the grave
Hahahaha
I love money. 🙂
Presiden banco suiso
Ray says a lot of money around, so the money is worth less. Okay, got it. He’s really got his theory of the case nailed down and explained succinctly. I wish he’d venture a solution, but he’s being a bit cagey. I think he’s predicting some serious pain to come.
True. He's worth over $20 billion in U.S. dollars. He can't say what he really thinks, which is that dollars are going to crash.
Dalio's value is worth more than mere money. His principles and trustworthiness is priceless.
Read his book free on his website but everyone can be wrong prognosticating. There is no likely solution to a declining us and rising china in his view.
Creepy
Dalio has been out of it for years and Summers has never been in. What to say of a guy who left the top job at Goldman Sachs right when the firm was starting to make him dirt rich for a civil servant position and is now a professor with no skin in the game.
Invest more in China
They have dementia? They can't complete a sentence without 'uh', 'um'.
Interviewer: Welcome to this 8th session restructuring uh
University professor: Arithmetic uh
Dalio: There are different kinds of inflation um
Summers is pure professor - full of serious-sounding but in the end meaningless, technical terminology; nothing you can hold him to. Dalio talks like a practitioner. He's got #SITG.
Bureaucratic fools
WhaT is your opinion on the topic of inflation?
talking real rubbish. XRP is our new monetary system backed by gold
Hey dalio home prices are going up in inflation terms. So are rents! Rants are not going down. Do you know what the hell's coming out of your mouth!
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