ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 27 มิ.ย. 2024
- NIO vs Tesla. It's a common question NIO investors investigate as they hope NIO can become the Tesla of China. When comparing the two companies, Tesla is absolutely dominating when it comes to luxury SUV sales across all competitors, both foreign and domestic. That lead extended even further when Tesla dropped prices for the Tesla Model Y which coincided with a drop in sales for NIO. NIO is a niche player in a market that's overwhelmed with the selection, offering a luxury vehicle that - so far - lacks the fat gross margins that a luxury product ought to offer. We're concerned that the swappable battery offering from NIO will hinder the firm while helping customers, but not provide enough differentiating value for them to boost sales in the face of strong competition from Tesla and even BYD.
RESEARCH PIECES USED IN THIS VIDEO:
1. The Dangers of Chinese Stocks: A Warning
www.nanalyze.com/2022/08/dang...
2. Chinese Electric Vehicle Maker NIO Files IPO
www.nanalyze.com/2018/08/chin...
3. Is Searching for “The Next Tesla” Pointless?
www.nanalyze.com/2022/07/the-...
4. The 8 Biggest Lithium Battery Stocks of 2028
www.nanalyze.com/2021/02/8-bi...
CHAPTERS:
Intro
China dominates electric vehicles
Tesla's price war affects NIO
The economics of battery swapping
The NIO short report
The argument for battery swapping
CATL's battery swapping tech
Arguments against swapping
Is NIO the best Chinese EV stock?
Conclusion
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Read all the Nanalyze Premium articles you'd like for free! Sign up for a 30-day trial of our monthly subscription with no strings attached: www.nanalyze.com/become-a-nan...
DISCLAIMER: Our content is intended to be used and must be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment based on your own personal circumstances. You should take independent financial advice from a professional in connection with, along with independently researching and verifying, any information contained within our TH-cam videos or on our website, whether for the purpose of making an investment or otherwise.
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Insightful! Have been a NIO-investor since the $2-range so never felt the need to revisit my thesis since the cost basis gave a fair amount of comfort for the future. Still, your argument about the long term viability of BaaS certainly gave some food for thought. Cheers!
NIO offers lots of nice perks for consumers while investors are concerned where they're sustainable.
One point I'd like to highlight is that the price of the Model Y Long Range sold in China in 2022 was 302,400 CNY. At that time, the price of NIO's 75kWh ES6 was $368,000 CNY. The price difference between the two vehicles was 65,600 CNY, approximately $9,220. This price difference seems significant enough to consider these vehicles in different classes. Since then, both Tesla and NIO discounted their vehicle prices, with the Model Y priced at 258,000 CNY and the ES6 at 338,000 CNY. The price difference between the two vehicles was 80,000 CNY, approximately $11,240. For reference, the starting price of the BYD Song, which is the best-selling, is 189,000 CNY. According to your logic, would it be appropriate to compare the Model Y with the BYD Song? It's worth noting that BYD Song sold 84,039 units in December of last year, totaling 640,749 units in the entire year of 23. In comparison, the Model Y sold 22,117 units in December of last year and a total of 254,000 units throughout the year 23.
You've done your homework! That would be a fair comparison. Pricing is something we'll be taking into account as we further review BYD and make a decision whether or not to add it to our portfolio.
A compelling argument, well done Joe. I've for some years held the view that swappable battery concept though a practical and game-changing idea in close and defined applications like factories, warehouses, ports and airports, isn't scalable to wide market. It adds complexity to the vehicle design and a huge financial burden to install and operate swapping stations. At the end, a busy location can swap 20 batteries an hour so to not run out of charged up batteries, it has to have rapid charge capability to handle maybe 100-200 batteries at a time (not supercharging at 250kWh rate but peak power requirement is still significant at above 6 MWh).
Standardasing on one battery (form factor, size and capacity) for all vehicles and manufacturers is a major design constraint and probably not realistic
Thank you for sharing some good points. There are use cases where swapping makes sense, but they're the exception, not the rule.
@@Nanalyze I agree and probably not in private passenger cars
BYD EV sales include hybrid I believe
Good point, thank you for raising. China refers to "new energy" as any vehicle that's electric or hybrid, and oftentimes metrics won't distinguish between the two.
Thanks man. This video is very timely. Looking forward to getting the ones on Li Auto and Tesla China and even Xpeng.
Tesla will be an easier one to analyze, but the Chinese companies are tough. Hoping to have these additional topics addressed in the next few weeks.
Agree with this conclusion. BYD can't be ignored. Do you have any thoughts on Polestar?
I'm long on Polestar, biggest advantage as name already established in US and Europe.
Here is our piece on Polestar. www.nanalyze.com/2022/07/polestar-stock-best-ev-stock/
@@Nanalyze Thanks Joe.
@Shoeless Joe Polestar will be the new Volvo of the EV market.....only better. They are not really trying to be competitive to everyone else, they are looking for their niche and will run with it.
@@tonespeaks We didn't come across mention of Polestar in our research into Chinese electric vehicles. Our piece on Polestar showed they were working through quality issues, so we'll check back in with them this summer.
Darn it... I just got the notification and I wanted to be first to comment.
You're always a winner in our eyes. ;) Thank you for helping give the algorithms some signs of interest.
As always Thank You ... I WAS a Nio Share holder about a year ago ... i just could not understand how the Swap Battery Platform could ever be Profitable for Shareholders... Sold it all and purchased more Tsla ... as my only EV Stock .... The next TSLA is TSLA ... again Thanks
Glad you enjoyed the piece, thank you for taking the time to comment.
correct, there can only be 1 car brand for the billions of people needing EVs in the future. Great foresight
@@esb9814 Nobody said anything about Tesla being the only EV brand people need. And be assured that the majority of the world's population will be driving gas-powered vehicles for a long time.
Seven years ago, there were people who criticized Tesla just like you criticize NIO now.
What facts presented in this piece did you disagree with?
@@Nanalyze It is really difficult for me to explain Chinese thought and culture in a shorter format to you. Chinese people and Chinese corporate culture are very complex. Your video focused on technical analysis of the stock market, but when it comes to Chinese policies and culture, it can be said that you have no real understanding.
Seems like you can't refute anything we presented and fall back on the old "you just don't understand the Chinese consumer" claim. And our video was not on technical analysis at all, it was the process of applying a refined tech investing methodology to a company that's currently under attack by - arguably - the world's greatest automotive manufacturer. This has nothing to do with your ability to explain Chinese thought, it's about presenting the facts as they are and coming to reasonable interpretations of those facts. So far you have brought zero insights to the table.
@@Nanalyze I can give you a few simple examples. The internet in China is very restricted, and accessing some foreign social networking sites requires using a VPN to get over the Great Firewall. Even playing games requires using a VPN, but despite this lack of freedom, most Chinese people still claim to have various personal freedoms. I know it sounds absurd, but that's the reality, and you can look up the evidence for yourself. There are many companies in China that, by conventional financial analysis, should have gone bankrupt long ago, but due to the inherent Chinese mindset, many Chinese people still choose to buy inferior products made by Chinese companies, even though they know that American companies make better products. Does this answer your question?
@@Nanalyze If both NIO and Tesla were American companies, then I would completely agree with the content of your video that NIO has almost no chance of survival. However, the real issue today is that "NIO is a Chinese company." Chinese policies and culture are the most influential factors affecting this company.
In my opinion, a supercharger degrades battery life. It takes 25-30 minutes to charge the battery with a supercharger to 80%. This can be a problem for people who drive long distances and for whom 100% battery level is important. Nio makes very nice cars, much nicer than Tesla. I estimate that NIO cars are on a level between Mercedes and Audi cars.
I don't like the idea of replacing the battery, but it's a great benefit for people living in big cities who value time. NIO cars are a bit overpriced, by about 20%, but maybe the market will regulate itself.
I believe in NIO shares, and I think I'm going to average. We do not know a lot of information and views on the company that the board has.
We'd need to see hard numbers on battery degradation because Tesla reports it to be quite reasonable, losing about 12% of capacity after 200,000 miles. NIO has a lot of competition from domestic car companies, not just Tesla's price war.
@@Nanalyze that is indeed very reasonable
Ok, Title.. Vs Tesla.. Short report. Shodow banking, VIE structure.. hmm seems like you work for someone who wants to just view one particular side of the story here.. & that's create doubt, confusion, & only to be negative.. I can literally pick this appart in how one sided you are in your attack video..
Take the conspiracy theories over to Reddit. This is a critical look at a stock using a consistent tech investing methodology applied to hundreds of stocks over the past decade. You're probably used to the many group wank videos that do nothing but praise your sacred cow. If there are facts we presented you disagree with, say so, else take the accusations elsewhere. Don't be lazy.
NIO doesn't need to be like Tesla to still bring massive gains to investors. NIO is a 9 year old company and Tesla is 20. The two companies have completely different buisness models but that doesn't mean that they cant both work. Come to Canada NIO i will definitely buy a car 😊
The "still bring massive gains to investors" comments aren't useful unless they're substantiatied with some reasoning as to why you believe that.
@@Nanalyze Battery swap stations will be used as energy storage and balancing the grid. Also battery swapping will one day bring in lots of monthly revenue. Right now 4-6 swaps are free but not for much longer. Very similar to how Tesla had free super charging for the first 300k customers but then started charging for the service. Nio is burning a lot of money right now because of how aggressively they are expanding their infrastructure not just in China but Europe as well. I believe eventually all this spending will pay off in a big way. I also believe the two sub brands will sell very well starting in only 8-12 months.
Thank you very much for added color! Now that's the spirit. Really appreciate you taking the time to clarify your bullish points.
@Roman Can you think of an area where NIO has something unique to offer that is desirable for a Buyer. It seems like a niche player in a very crowded sector.
@@tonespeaks Maybe their ADAS technology? Primary LiDAR unit, multiple smaller LiDAR units, 13 cameras, 36 body sensors. They've invested in the equipment, and said they have plans to offer a subscription product on the platform. Of course, the swappable battery is unique, we're just proposing that it might not be the way forward.
Between a Loser and winner
Something like that ;)
Niu is dead already
Niu is definitely something we wouldn't be investing in. -Wyatt C.