In a world of casino gamblers moving shorterm markets based on nothing, zero analysis or economic understand, Felix is a unique and clear expert. Most (90%) of TH-cam financial channels are garbage technical chart BS without any context for the greater economic macro. You have to have both to provide a valid perspective. Thx Felix for tying together all the dots and providing insights to a very confusing investment environment.
I was thinking the same while watching. Just nodding my head the whole interview. Great job by the D’Agostino not interrupting and asking the right question. Listening to Zulauf was like Tolkien’s stories. I loved every second of this. Thank you!
Nail on the head right here...pretty much sums things up. To add to that...he has so much money and has so no incentive to have a "show" or " active channel". We're just lucky to hear from him through these sort of interviews every few months. Thank you youtube! :)
A large part of the first half of the interview was wasted on pure speculation about reserve currency status, potential alternative reserve currencies well into the future, etc. The interviewer just can't put his ideology and politics to the side to focus on current investment issues. The last third of the interview was better (although peppered with lots of speculation). Many of Mr. Zulaf's points, however, were pretty standard, that is, pretty much what we're hearing from GS and MS. There were few if any unique insights. Humans are terrible at predicting the future, and Mr. Zulaf's record in no better than anyone else's. My guess is, if you like what he has to say, you'll like the interview; if you're more concerned with how to risk manage your assets today, then you may be left disappointed.
If this is even close to the near future, major economies will fold. $200 oil, with 8% 10 year notes. Not a pleasant future for the masses. Great interview. Felix is one smart dude.
Felix is too polite, let me fill in the blanks on the currencies: EU and UK go poof....look at their GDP % make up (govt makes up something like 50-60%) and now the high costs of war/energy expenditure (which they really could not afford, so won't end well). Another thing, Europe is too expensive relative to its productivity and contribution to the rest of world. With this war, watch all the patents declared worthless afterwards as compensation for causing the war....now, that would hurt many western high quality cos....
Felix is doing the rounds, does he have a book out? The real systemic problem with the whole financial system is over half of traders, hedge funds, derivative traders etc etc do not create wealth or jobs. They move money. They make money from money until such time central banks bail the banks out. It requires a clean up. Govts now are the job creaters either directly or indirectly via taxpayer liabilities. Sorry but Felix was at UBS in which it used customers money to gamble with. Requiring massive rescues by the German govt. Its still a mess! After repeatedly saying the liquidity crisis is an Anglo saxon one!! Europe & US capital system is broken instead of lifting people from poverty it now creates poverty. Its over folks. 😢
I'm curious to know how Felix thinks global governments will respond to 8% interest rates? Most governments today can't afford rates anywhere near those levels and I can't imagine they wouldn't respond with policies to pull those rates back down. QE comes to mind. Commodity prices and interest rates at those numbers would also lead to a significant amount of social unrest and potentially the collapse of several governments. It's hard to feed the world if farmers can't afford fertilizer or fuel. How would governments respond?
You're 100% on the money. 8% FFR for a sustained period of time will bankrupt the US government within a couple of years. How in the world do they want to finance their deficits + existing interests. This part of his thesis doesn't sound plausible to me, the FED wouldn't let the US government default on their liabilities. Imo yield curve control is the more likely scenario (real negative yields to delever the US government).
He was saying in another podcast that he didn't think Govts would go back to QE. Smaller Government and mass privatisation of health, education and putting an age ceiling on aged pensions of around 80 and behaving a bit like Thatcherism probably is on horizon. They will probably divert that money into defence assets and energy golden handshakes to keep the lights on. But that was before hearing the end of this where hestalking about national superannuation funds, banking system and bonds. That is going to erode national savings. And currencies will struggle. Was fascinated about 1930s. The fascinating thing is that we are concerned about lazy shareholders at all. Governments should be taxing them to the hilt for putting sugar on the table. We tax housing (hard assets) pretty lightly so that's a goldmine to tap. Gold as the safe haven sounds like a question mark. Bonds sounds like it's a contender for Bitcoin or Blockchain perhaps, controlled by Reserve Banks, if that's even possible.
'The' 'big change'? "The crisis now unfolding, however, is entirely different to the 1970s in one crucial respect… The 1970s crisis was largely artificial. When all is said and done, the oil shock was nothing more than the emerging OPEC cartel asserting its newfound leverage following the peak of continental US oil production. There was no shortage of oil any more than the three-day-week had been caused by coal shortages. What they did, perhaps, give us a glimpse of was what might happen in the event that our economies depleted our fossil fuel reserves before we had found a more versatile and energy-dense alternative. . . . That system has been on the life-support of quantitative easing and near zero interest rates ever since. Indeed, so perilous a state has the system been in since 2008, it was essential that the people who claim to be our leaders avoid doing anything so foolish as to lockdown the economy or launch an undeclared economic war on one of the world’s biggest commodity exporters . . . And this is why the crisis we are beginning to experience will make the 1970s look like a golden age of peace and tranquility. . . . The sad reality though, is that our leaders - at least within the western empire - have bought into a vision of the future which cannot work without some new and yet-to-be-discovered high-density energy source (which rules out all of the so-called green technologies whose main purpose is to concentrate relatively weak and diffuse energy sources). . . . Even as we struggle to reimagine the 1970s in an attempt to understand the current situation, the only people on Earth today who can even begin to imagine the economic and social horrors that await western populations are the survivors of the 1980s famine in Ethiopia, the hyperinflation in 1990s Zimbabwe, or, ironically, the Russians who survived the collapse of the Soviet Union." consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2022/07/01/bigger-than-you-can-imagine/
Still believe the dollar will remain relatively strong compared to €, £,¥ and currencies of minor countries, simply because the north american land mass constitutes an autarckic economy
Nice interview. I think people don’t understand macro forecasts. What Felix was telling you was haw to position yourself for a likely future. Not necessarily telling you how to trade today.
Der Mann hat eine enorme Erfahrung und war immer als Investor dabei. Nicht nur als Börsenbrief Schreiber oder Kommentator. Sehr ernst nehmen, was er sagt!
I just don’t see China’s gov’t, Russia or Saudi Arabia ‘s gov’ts or even a combination of it can be trustworthy. People still want to migrate to US, Japan, UK because theh have established laws & government that can be trusted & laws are applied. I mean look at China & Russia & Saudi Arabia?
Same questions, answers from another interview he did. Only thing different was the interviewer. Odd the questions were exactly the same, seems this is just a prepared act.
Market timing. The dollar is on the decline but China needs to restructure and perhaps the Chinese currency gets devalued ? Can’t get a washing machine but there’s too much inventory. Sorry 😢, but he says a lot of conflicting things. I’m not big on Swiss bankers and neither should you😮.
World Money = Gold, Gold = Tier 1 asset, World Currencies = CBDC'S, CBDC'S backed by physical gold Monetary Reset in 2023, Gold Revaluation Day in 2023, Fiat Currencies = Zero Value 2023.
OBVIOUSLY IF HE STATED THAT HE IS NOT A GOLD BUG - But feels that along with ALL THE CENTRAL BANKS that gold , PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER will do very well .
Although he seems humble, experienced and knowledgeable unfortunately there was little to nothing ACTIONABLE for the retail investor here on his topics. He predicts way out there will be many black swans between now and 5-10 yrs out
China w/ it's $18T economy will bail out its critical real estate sector as a starter ... their population is decreasing and their current young people can't find jobs in a global economy that's in recession .. how will they keep the people distracted .? Will attempt to invade Taiwan 🤷🏼♂️
I've had my eye on the yen, out of all the majors, followed by the pound, euro, and Swiss franc. Don't think all of them will fail though. I think Felix was referring to minor currencies, in African or Latin American countries. Brazil also appears to be on the brink of major change.
Either you connect the dots or you will have to pay for an investment newsletter (I think he is not working for retail investors, but there is a lot of advice out there)
Felix is one of the best to listen to , shame he didn’t say what he thought about real estate , though the vibe seemed to be a correction, especially later in the decade ?
China has a system where companies borrow off of commodities they own. Nearly every time they borrow multiple times against the same asset then the asset vanishes and the lenders are without collateral backing the loan and the loan goes bad. Having a currency system based upon this would simply not work.
The take-away for me is that China and others are partnering on a USD alternative. I agree with your comment, but that fact that so many nations are collaborating on an alternative, combined with the likely reality that oil will soon be trading in yuan, are important developments. Thank you for the comment. -Ed D'Agostino
@@MauldinEconomicsTH-cam It's also important to consider that just because they build it, it doesn't have to work. If one sees it as a startup product (replace the USD) - how many startups fail before one gets it right? Replacing a system that has been working for decades isn't achieved just because a couple of nations start to collaborate. It will probably take even longer than expected and also has a high probability to fail spectacularly in its infancy and most likely cause another systemic crisis.
That is completely false. You should go visit China to learn about it. Making up BS to smear the China you don’t know won’t help you be a better investor.
It will be great when Mr. Zulauf learns a little bit about bitcoin. If you understand gold it is not so difficult to understand bitcoin. A tiny bit of bitcoin, just in case the US cannot pay off it's $30T+ debt. :)
Those hoping the broken supply chain would rapidly begin to repair itself will be disappointed. In our complex interdependent world, a broken link in a supply chain impacts both prices and the flow of goods. The article below warns of more chaos ahead. brucewilds.blogspot.com/2022/04/the-broken-supply-chain-russia-and.html
![[Full Episode] The Restaurant War Thailand ศึกพ่อค้าซ่าแม่ค้าแซ่บ Episode 2 | 29 ก.ย. 67](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/r3lfLNH6Ke4/mqdefault.jpg)
In a world of casino gamblers moving shorterm markets based on nothing, zero analysis or economic understand, Felix is a unique and clear expert. Most (90%) of TH-cam financial channels are garbage technical chart BS without any context for the greater economic macro. You have to have both to provide a valid perspective. Thx Felix for tying together all the dots and providing insights to a very confusing investment environment.
I was thinking the same while watching. Just nodding my head the whole interview. Great job by the D’Agostino not interrupting and asking the right question. Listening to Zulauf was like Tolkien’s stories. I loved every second of this. Thank you!
Nail on the head right here...pretty much sums things up.
To add to that...he has so much money and has so no incentive to have a "show" or " active channel". We're just lucky to hear from him through these sort of interviews every few months.
Thank you youtube! :)
holly cow, you need to put Felix on for round 2! Great interview
Great interview with thoughtful views of the future. Thanks so much!
Thank you for watching! -Ed
thank you for your incredible generosity in sharing your potential scenarios of how this will unfold!
The channel name is so close to maudlin. Which is perfect for the doom porn there at the beginning lol
To remain the global reserve currency , adopt the Bitcoin Standard.
A large part of the first half of the interview was wasted on pure speculation about reserve currency status, potential alternative reserve currencies well into the future, etc. The interviewer just can't put his ideology and politics to the side to focus on current investment issues. The last third of the interview was better (although peppered with lots of speculation). Many of Mr. Zulaf's points, however, were pretty standard, that is, pretty much what we're hearing from GS and MS. There were few if any unique insights. Humans are terrible at predicting the future, and Mr. Zulaf's record in no better than anyone else's. My guess is, if you like what he has to say, you'll like the interview; if you're more concerned with how to risk manage your assets today, then you may be left disappointed.
If this is even close to the near future, major economies will fold. $200 oil, with 8% 10 year notes. Not a pleasant future for the masses. Great interview. Felix is one smart dude.
Felix is too polite, let me fill in the blanks on the currencies: EU and UK go poof....look at their GDP % make up (govt makes up something like 50-60%) and now the high costs of war/energy expenditure (which they really could not afford, so won't end well). Another thing, Europe is too expensive relative to its productivity and contribution to the rest of world. With this war, watch all the patents declared worthless afterwards as compensation for causing the war....now, that would hurt many western high quality cos....
And AUD strengthens,Australia in a good position
Felix is doing the rounds, does he have a book out? The real systemic problem with the whole financial system is over half of traders, hedge funds, derivative traders etc etc do not create wealth or jobs. They move money. They make money from money until such time central banks bail the banks out. It requires a clean up. Govts now are the job creaters either directly or indirectly via taxpayer liabilities. Sorry but Felix was at UBS in which it used customers money to gamble with. Requiring massive rescues by the German govt. Its still a mess! After repeatedly saying the liquidity crisis is an Anglo saxon one!! Europe & US capital system is broken instead of lifting people from poverty it now creates poverty. Its over folks. 😢
I'm curious to know how Felix thinks global governments will respond to 8% interest rates? Most governments today can't afford rates anywhere near those levels and I can't imagine they wouldn't respond with policies to pull those rates back down. QE comes to mind. Commodity prices and interest rates at those numbers would also lead to a significant amount of social unrest and potentially the collapse of several governments. It's hard to feed the world if farmers can't afford fertilizer or fuel. How would governments respond?
You're 100% on the money. 8% FFR for a sustained period of time will bankrupt the US government within a couple of years. How in the world do they want to finance their deficits + existing interests. This part of his thesis doesn't sound plausible to me, the FED wouldn't let the US government default on their liabilities. Imo yield curve control is the more likely scenario (real negative yields to delever the US government).
He was saying in another podcast that he didn't think Govts would go back to QE. Smaller Government and mass privatisation of health, education and putting an age ceiling on aged pensions of around 80 and behaving a bit like Thatcherism probably is on horizon. They will probably divert that money into defence assets and energy golden handshakes to keep the lights on. But that was before hearing the end of this where hestalking about national superannuation funds, banking system and bonds. That is going to erode national savings. And currencies will struggle. Was fascinated about 1930s. The fascinating thing is that we are concerned about lazy shareholders at all. Governments should be taxing them to the hilt for putting sugar on the table. We tax housing (hard assets) pretty lightly so that's a goldmine to tap. Gold as the safe haven sounds like a question mark. Bonds sounds like it's a contender for Bitcoin or Blockchain perhaps, controlled by Reserve Banks, if that's even possible.
Planning economy, rationing, currency controls, forced labour, personal freedom restrictions.
'The' 'big change'?
"The crisis now unfolding, however, is entirely different to the 1970s in one crucial respect… The 1970s crisis was largely artificial. When all is said and done, the oil shock was nothing more than the emerging OPEC cartel asserting its newfound leverage following the peak of continental US oil production. There was no shortage of oil any more than the three-day-week had been caused by coal shortages. What they did, perhaps, give us a glimpse of was what might happen in the event that our economies depleted our fossil fuel reserves before we had found a more versatile and energy-dense alternative. . . . That system has been on the life-support of quantitative easing and near zero interest rates ever since. Indeed, so perilous a state has the system been in since 2008, it was essential that the people who claim to be our leaders avoid doing anything so foolish as to lockdown the economy or launch an undeclared economic war on one of the world’s biggest commodity exporters . . .
And this is why the crisis we are beginning to experience will make the 1970s look like a golden age of peace and tranquility. . . . The sad reality though, is that our leaders - at least within the western empire - have bought into a vision of the future which cannot work without some new and yet-to-be-discovered high-density energy source (which rules out all of the so-called green technologies whose main purpose is to concentrate relatively weak and diffuse energy sources). . . . Even as we struggle to reimagine the 1970s in an attempt to understand the current situation, the only people on Earth today who can even begin to imagine the economic and social horrors that await western populations are the survivors of the 1980s famine in Ethiopia, the hyperinflation in 1990s Zimbabwe, or, ironically, the Russians who survived the collapse of the Soviet Union."
consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2022/07/01/bigger-than-you-can-imagine/
DA, the crash has just started. Kashanians economics has destroyed the future. Printing money outside GDP
Still believe the dollar will remain relatively strong compared to €, £,¥ and currencies of minor countries, simply because the north american land mass constitutes an autarckic economy
Nice interview.
I think people don’t understand macro forecasts. What Felix was telling you was haw to position yourself for a likely future.
Not necessarily telling you how to trade today.
EXACTLY! Thanks for watching. -Ed
Yes he is not advising on short term tactics, rather he hints at a longer term strategy
No ! You are in trouble !
Oh great interview! No wonder the China and Russia and a few countries are piling up the Gold, but where is the best places to hide or put our saving?
Simon Hunt and Felix Zulauf are very much on the same page for a lot of things macro conditions and likely outcomes.
He’s one of the best . He doesn’t do many interviews but when he does I listen to them a lot more than once . Thank you .
I live in a world where 3 out of 4 experts deliver rubbish. Thanks for not being one of the 3 out of 4.
excellent guest....reminds me of j grantham, very clear and insightful
Felix is awesome 👍
Der Mann hat eine enorme Erfahrung und war immer als Investor dabei. Nicht nur als Börsenbrief Schreiber oder Kommentator. Sehr ernst nehmen, was er sagt!
I just don’t see China’s gov’t, Russia or Saudi Arabia ‘s gov’ts or even a combination of it can be trustworthy. People still want to migrate to US, Japan, UK because theh have established laws & government that can be trusted & laws are applied. I mean look at China & Russia & Saudi Arabia?
Same questions, answers from another interview he did. Only thing different was the interviewer. Odd the questions were exactly the same, seems this is just a prepared act.
China does not possess a lot of their own natural resources and therefore are reliant on external imports.
Market timing. The dollar is on the decline but China needs to restructure and perhaps the Chinese currency gets devalued ? Can’t get a washing machine but there’s too much inventory. Sorry 😢, but he says a lot of conflicting things. I’m not big on Swiss bankers and neither should you😮.
How does Felix feel about CBDC??
The start of your video sounds just like a commercial. I was looking for the skip ads button
What could go wrong?
Free marketing for BTC
Average Joes would just be wiped out.
😰
Does Mr Zulauf understand the #CRIMEX?
World Money = Gold,
Gold = Tier 1 asset,
World Currencies = CBDC'S,
CBDC'S backed by physical gold
Monetary Reset in 2023,
Gold Revaluation Day in 2023,
Fiat Currencies = Zero Value 2023.
Gold cannot perform in the absence of any real market. My opinion
OBVIOUSLY IF HE STATED THAT HE IS NOT A GOLD BUG -
But feels that along with ALL THE CENTRAL BANKS that gold , PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER will do very well .
The emergence of another global reserve is inevitable!
The US, ironically accelerated that process! 😂
Man I like that guy!! Wish I had $100M to put with his company.
me too!
W W WEF
Although he seems humble, experienced and knowledgeable unfortunately there was little to nothing ACTIONABLE for the retail investor here on his topics. He predicts way out there will be many black swans between now and 5-10 yrs out
You must have watched a different video.
China w/ it's $18T economy will bail out its critical real estate sector as a starter ... their population is decreasing and their current young people can't find jobs in a global economy that's in recession .. how will they keep the people distracted .? Will attempt to invade Taiwan 🤷🏼♂️
Why would China support a commodity based currency that they wouldn't control when they're a net food energy and material importer?
If it gives the US less power and if they have better protection of their wealth and capital.
The question of all questions: Which currencies does Felix expect to vanish?
I've had my eye on the yen, out of all the majors, followed by the pound, euro, and Swiss franc. Don't think all of them will fail though. I think Felix was referring to minor currencies, in African or Latin American countries. Brazil also appears to be on the brink of major change.
The £ ???
Did he say 2023 looks pretty bright , can someone save/ play this video 1 year from now ?🙏
The US and Europe are being challenged, yes, but I believe they understand, and are up for the challenge.
Hi Ed, Lets bring Felix Zulauf again for an economic update ,,,
I will try! Felix typically limits public media to once/year.
@@MauldinEconomicsTH-cam Thanks🙏
This guy knows a little too much 💀
🙏
So what is the Advice here ??????? So much BlaBlaBla
Either you connect the dots or you will have to pay for an investment newsletter (I think he is not working for retail investors, but there is a lot of advice out there)
Felix who?
Bitcoin is available
Felix is one of the best to listen to , shame he didn’t say what he thought about real estate , though the vibe seemed to be a correction, especially later in the decade ?
Yes, he indicated a serious correction due to rates moving much higher as a result of a second wave of inflation.
Felix thinks Real Estate is 40% overvalued. Saw it n another interview, as developer I agree completely.
Bitcoin!
Great guest, thanks !
The last question was the best! Thanks for sharing
You don't have to tell me, I'm a Felix fanboy
The interview is a copy of the one done by Wealthion channel
Adam at Wealthion does a great job. We happened to interview Felix the same week, so I'm not surprised to hear there was some overlap of ideas.
He is sharp. Great video.
How accurate have his past forecasts been?
In Feb this year he predicted the fed pivot to be late this year and gold to go up to recent highs. Half a year early🤷♂️?
great and scary. yikes.
Indeed.
Great inputs and macro view of risk
Thank you for watching. -Ed
China has a system where companies borrow off of commodities they own. Nearly every time they borrow multiple times against the same asset then the asset vanishes and the lenders are without collateral backing the loan and the loan goes bad. Having a currency system based upon this would simply not work.
The take-away for me is that China and others are partnering on a USD alternative. I agree with your comment, but that fact that so many nations are collaborating on an alternative, combined with the likely reality that oil will soon be trading in yuan, are important developments. Thank you for the comment. -Ed D'Agostino
@@MauldinEconomicsTH-cam It's also important to consider that just because they build it, it doesn't have to work. If one sees it as a startup product (replace the USD) - how many startups fail before one gets it right? Replacing a system that has been working for decades isn't achieved just because a couple of nations start to collaborate. It will probably take even longer than expected and also has a high probability to fail spectacularly in its infancy and most likely cause another systemic crisis.
That is completely false. You should go visit China to learn about it. Making up BS to smear the China you don’t know won’t help you be a better investor.
A country that leaves God will pay a big price, Jesus is the only way to eternal life.
interview for the history books right there
It will be great when Mr. Zulauf learns a little bit about bitcoin. If you understand gold it is not so difficult to understand bitcoin. A tiny bit of bitcoin, just in case the US cannot pay off it's $30T+ debt. :)
Those hoping the broken supply chain would rapidly begin to repair itself will be disappointed. In our complex interdependent world, a broken link in a supply chain impacts both prices and the flow of goods. The article below warns of more chaos ahead. brucewilds.blogspot.com/2022/04/the-broken-supply-chain-russia-and.html