What is Exponential Growth Bias? And are we guilty of it?

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  • เผยแพร่เมื่อ 14 พ.ย. 2024

ความคิดเห็น • 11

  • @zebmason6530
    @zebmason6530 6 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Slight problem in that epidemics have been known not to grow exponentially since, at least, Farr's Law of 1840. They have logistic growth as per the standard SIR model of 1927 as you full well know.

  • @myhatmyseat9924
    @myhatmyseat9924 ปีที่แล้ว

    Sometimes i need to go back to the basics to get a better understanding of what the hell i am working with - thanks for this i really needed the refresher😃

    • @ciaranmcevoy9875
      @ciaranmcevoy9875  ปีที่แล้ว

      Going back to the basics is always a good thing. Glad it helped pal!

  • @Laroula1
    @Laroula1 3 ปีที่แล้ว

    exponential growth shocked me twice in 2020. and following my shock i was looking at 500% return and i left it on the table! that in i think during march i took profits at 100% i think! and again in November i also left on the table around 230% took profit at only 100%
    How do you think i can overcome that threshold, in the highlight that decisions are gambles of course!
    but i'm working with numbers decisions are gambles numbers are not! it's calculatable

  • @Laroula1
    @Laroula1 3 ปีที่แล้ว

    ok solver this for me i don't like math all that much but i'm a professional technical analyst (stock market and such)
    i can grow portfolios by 30% on good trades and i lose about 6% or 7% on bad trades.
    sequence.. no like flipping a coin. I believe the sequence is random and the outcomes too are random!
    i mean i don't trade mechanically i do it by myself, so some trades may yield more than 30% and some trades may lose less than 5%
    after how many trades do you think i can reach a million. given that i started with a capital of $4k
    I trade leveraged tokens and ETFs this volatile 3x the instrument i'm following.
    i can't put a time on that because it depends on two things the volatility of the trend and if i do recognize a move ! i mean it has comply to my rules for me to believe i have a trade or not and to actually put on a trade.
    can you help me with that?!
    i can't do the math that can help me tweak my numbers
    like less % on stop loss or to change my rules for entry/exit!
    i believe 20 trades are good indicative if my strategy is good but i can't decide how long does it take me to put on 20 trades

    • @ciaranmcevoy9875
      @ciaranmcevoy9875  3 ปีที่แล้ว

      Hey Lara, I'll be honest and say I have very little experience with stock trading, so I really don't know enough about it. If I was to have a guess, I'd say you can only calculate how long it would take you to get to the million if you knew how often you made successful and unsuccessful trades. That way you could work out a rough average percentage gain and see how many trades you'd need starting at 4K with that. But again I'm not the one to ask. Good question though, thanks for showing your interest in the video 👍

  • @theFINNISHmonster1
    @theFINNISHmonster1 3 ปีที่แล้ว

    Few months

  • @goofy_walking_pluto1218
    @goofy_walking_pluto1218 4 ปีที่แล้ว

    Cool vid

  • @krishnateja7728
    @krishnateja7728 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    80 days.

  • @Laroula1
    @Laroula1 3 ปีที่แล้ว

    very short amount of time