The impact actions have however has definitely increased. And that will increase the pace of change whether or not the pace of actions has changed. Assad wouldn't have fallen today if it were 30 years ago. We probably wouldn't even know he gassed his population back then.
@@jamstagerable I have to disagree. I'd argue politics, like physics, tends towards states of equilibrium. Assad's fall is a consequence of a process of shifting global politics. Russia invaded Ukraine, Western nations intervened by sending supplies, thereby sapping Russia's strength. Russia thus ceased assistance to Syria, which was propping up the Assad regime. The balance of power in Syria then shifted, and the regime's holdings collapsed when the rebels applied a bit of pressure. Russia disrupted the world's balance, and I think the rapid pace of events we're seeing is the world rebalancing itself.
Simon… you have drastically improved your turnaround time on these videos lately and it is so noticeable. Best of all, you’ve done so without sacrificing the quality of your analysis or delivery. Great work!
I agree, however I don't understand how he can even consider forcibly moving the turkish kurds to rojava or call this a "not easy or kind solution, but..". Forcible resettling a whole people with this intent is called "ethnic cleansing" and constitutes crimes against humanity.. english is not my first language, so I hope I badly misunderstood.
@@mike496the west doesn’t understand a lot. They see Syria as Syrians and nothing else- they always mention the christians but that is all. I agree with not forcing movement - it’s illegal and immoral. Make emirates with self government
I unfortunately have to disagree this time. There were a lot of factions and a lot of movements that I feel I needed to see a lot more maps than Simon this time.
I guess.. I was in Iraq in 2004-2005 as soldier it was carnage. I went back in 2022 in a different capacity. You could go out to eat and stay at a hotel but they were still drone attacks while eating and laying in bed in my hotel room.
I hope so, but after lybia, Iraq and more, well let's be honest the leader of these guys is a former Al-qaeda and Isis fighter, I honestly can't say I genuinely see things getting any better, more likely to get far worse
Turkiye won here, they're the ones who supported HTS and the other rebels. This is Turkiyes win and Russia is PISSED. US as usual is there now bombing IS as they claim.
Simon and Co.: Thank you for your continued excellent coverage of the stuff going on in the world around us. I will say that I also loved it when you did videos on historic wars too. I hope you’ll consider sprinkling those videos in from time to time. With that being said, thanks for all the content you pump out on a daily basis. You guys are phenomenal.
Evan Moloney must be working round the clock on this...as a professional writer myself I appreciate what a gargantuan task it is to source, audit, and compile all the validated info to put a report like this together. IMHO: Warfronts presents a better strategic overview than all international legacy news channels put together. Big congrats to Simon and all the team.
I am amazed of the speed you uploaded videos and professionalism in which you were able to cover such a fresh historic event with so much length and depth. Kudos
Simon We need a complete video of the history of Hafez Al-assad how he seized to power, and his son Bashar Al-assad, if you can make for us, will be very enjoying and much appreciated to you Boss. Thank you very much.
I think that (relative) prosperity comes next. Even if we conclude that HTS is going to be more repressive than Assad (even though I'd argue that that's a very, very high bar to cross, given what Assad has done), what's undeniable is that Assad's rule is marred by corruption, bureaucracy and just plain old nepotism. HTS HAVE proven to be at least competent governors when it came to ruling Idlib. Replicate that at a mass scale in Aleppo, Hama, Homs, Latakia, Damascus and Daraa - and the rebel offensive might well prove itself to be a blessing for everyone in (and outside) Syria.
I was saying, even if HTS were just bullshitting and didn't plan to go through with all the positive things they were saying, it seems like they're going to be better than Assad pretty much by default. It really shows how damn bad the Assad regime was that basic competency is seen as a 'breath of fresh air'.
A lot of Syrian refugees in Europe are planning to return home. Hopefully they can bring the skills and knowledge they've learned with them to benefit Syria.
It’s not HTS that Washington is worried about. It’s the Turkish puppet factions that are going to shell the hell out of Kurdish territory now. And once the Kurds are pushed back, Isis will recover. Because the Kurds are the only force in Syria that can reliably keep Isis down
@thesenate1844 yeah i seriously doubt they're planning to return. Why return to a dump and have to rebuild when you have buffoon politicians that'll give you everything so they can feel morally superior? Besides that, I'm not totally convinced this is the end of the war, just the end of this chapter. Power is seductive and I don't see any of these groups willingly giving it up. More than likely, they'll be fighting each other next.
I agree that there is good reason to start feeling hopeful for the future. I believe this Golani guy deserves a honeymoon period. When that honeymoon period ends will entirely depend on him and his organizations actions from here on out.
I’m usually pretty doomer about shit like this, but I don’t know, I feel very optimistic for Syria and the Syrian people. I hope I’m right. Some of the most beautiful people I’ve ever met are Syrian.
@@eifelitorn Yea, I agree, that is worrisome, but after watching the leader of the HST speak, and reading more about him, I really do believe he can be a partner in the region, primarily because I do think he cares about Syria more than anything else. I think I'm more worried about the Turkey backed rebels than HST, or even what's left of ISIS, because I think HST would be more willing to work with the Kurds, who, with the backing of the US, essentially have complete control over one of the most, if not the most, profitable region in Syria (the largest oil fields), which gives them a huge bargaining chip due to that region being essential for Syria to be able to rebuild, while Turkey and the Kurds have been at war forever. Like I said, I'm usually really doomer about this stuff, and maybe I'm just being overly optimistic because I'm tired of feeling that way, but so far, from what I've seen----minus the ISIS flags haha---I have hope, and belief, that Syria will be different from the other recent regional conflicts. I guess we'll just have to see what happens. One thing I'm fairly certain of is that Assad aint coming back, and just that is a huuuge win/benefit. Cheers, hope you're doing well.
Honestly hope all Syrian people can return home even thou there might not be much left right now. Im sure the World will come to aid them. Lets cross fingers
Simon 2 episode in a single day, you Satisfied all your followers today, Hope peace, prosperity and stability for all Syrians, Thank you very much salute 🙏 👍
Given what it actually means, i couod easily see millions of Evangelical Christians shouting it too. FYI, it simply means "God is great" in Arabic. Jihadis co-opted the phrase.
@@ARIXANDRE Yeah, it kinda means "God is great/greater/greatest". It's not an extremist phrase at all and actually repeated a lot in prayer. But obviously, when you have extremist murderers killing for their god, what are they going to say but "God is greatest"?
The Syrian leader now was a former al Qaeda leader and Islamic sharia jihadist etc. yeah, im sure they will be known for their equality and protection for all lol
Its worth pointing out that the Turkish backed proxy group in the north fighting the Kurds are largely "ex"-ISIS and have already committed the kind of atrocities they did during the rise of ISIS. So outside the Kurds and a minority of other groups this is largely a takeover by Al-Qaeda and ISIS under different monikers.
@@Sierraomega1991 There's splitting due to irreconcilable differences and there's splitting just to avoid association. HTS has previously been perfectly open about how they see the wahabist Taleban government of Afghanistan as a model for what they want to do in Syria. I'd like to be hopeful, but I'm from Finland and we're pessimists by nature. Hence I can't see any reason why they wouldn't go back to their old ways as soon as international attention turns away. The "ex" ISIS rebels backed by Turkey immediately failed at that as have multiple groups under HTS. As a local saying goes; A pessimist is rarely disappointed.
@@LAG09Who cares for if you're optimistic or pessimistic about a foreign country thousands of kilometres away, it's none of your business how they want to rule their nation. And unlike Isis or Israel these groups have spoken out against expansionism. Syrian Kurds are marxist-apoist terrorists who have history in attacking NATO nation of Turkiye, therefore Turkish security assessment is irrefutable as even Blinken had to admit in front of press a few days ago. Syrian Kurds, only making 7% of Syrian population cannot (❗) control 1/3 of Syria and especially not the important oil fields. No bargain will be accepted, no autonomy granted. US will need to leave, Turks will make it happen.
People saying that things may end up worse for Syrians clearly don't understand how truly horrible the over half a century of Assad family rule was for the Syrian people.
I’m hoping for peace and freedom for the Syrian people. I pray that this is what will happen. No one deserves the hell they have been going through! I hope for peace and freedom and a better life and future for the country so refugees can return and be safe and happy and healthy ❤.
As usual the various factions are going to be at each other’s throats for control for the country. It’s about to get a whole lot worse. I’m sincerely hoping for a different outcome but I doubt it.
If they can get the Kurds and the Turkish backed rebels to come to a peace deal then that leaves the alawhites and Christians and other minorities and isis yeah theirs going to be a lot of ethnic cleansing.
@@Dezzo0721 it’s going to go horrible for the people of Syria. You can paint a turn gold doesn’t make it gold. HTS is not a group of good people as much as everyone is trying to sell them as. It’s only a matter of time before they are back to their ISIS tactics and destroying the lives of the Syrian people.
Syria may be the most traumatized nation of thr 21st century, exceeding Afghanistan, the Gaza Strip, Ukraine and Haiti. It will take years for the wounds of the national psyche to heal and that's contingent with all factions agreeing to set aside their differences and work towards building a nation that is truly a livable place.
21:20 If they love a power vacuum then they should get a Kirby Avalir Platinum Vacuum Cleaner. With plenty of dirtbags available for recruitment at a reasonable price... The dirtbags, not the vacuum. That thing is $2,699.00.
I really, really hope the HTS is being truthful about transitioning to a moderate and less sectarian government, though I'm apprehensive. I really, really hope they come to a concensus with the SDF, and I really really really hope the SNA is forced to knock their crap off. I think the SNA is the only faction actively looking for a fight right now. Most everyone seems to want the fighting to be over.
This analysis raises key questions about the future of Syria, peace, reconstruction, and the complex role of global powers. What's your perspective on this transition?
At 14:25 you mention Russia not withdrawing from the naval or airbases. As of the time of this comment, they have moved a large number of transports to the airbase to be prepared for evacuating, and the ships at the naval base are now out to sea.
@@crystalquisalas i'm obviously referring to the non-kurd muslims. and it doesn't seem to be a shia-sunni schism thing too. Both shias and sunnis seem happy to ignore or condone the violence done by non-kurd muslims to kurds.
@@ryaneylee Well, think about the nonsense you've blabbered there. You expect any nation on the world to be okay with giving away their sovereignty and have a foreign-supported hostile nation being carved out of your lands. Why not start at home? Oh, wait. Your forefathers were all for a state for the juice as well, but not in Central Europe, I remember. 😅 You're dishonest with your fake humanism. Give your minorities a nation first. The natives of America, Canada or Australia deserve their own states as well. And also, the migrants in Europe. They too deserve to live amongst themselves in peace and harmony. 😊
I'm sorry to say it but I feel like in this video there should have been a lot more references to a map instead of the face of the presenter. I got confused very quickly with all of the factions and all of the territories being taken or lost.
What are you talking about they are now under control of HTS just a rebranded ISIS group. The Christian’s are trying to evacuate right now before they start to get their heads chopped off.
@@drgat6953 That pipeline might even be the thing to jumpstart Syria’s post war economy. Europe is desperate for a cheap petrol ever since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. So this would be the perfect opportunity to get it. Europe needs the oil, and Syria needs the money.
@@Kaiserboo1871the project is on natural gas, not oil. And it was proposed at a time when Qatar and Saudis had good relations. Probably still no real objections to it, but we don't know. I could also imagine Saudis being interested in a pipeline for their oil as well to Ceyhan port of Turkiye or a new port in Syria. Win Win Win for all except for Ruzza.
I work for a company that uses the acronym HTS. It feels weird hearing the acronym used for the rebel group. Nonetheless the power vacuum fears are warranted after what Libya went through after Qaddafi lost power.
Its the middle east asking if it can get worse is asking if water can get things wet. Getting worse is something the region excels at and has enough of to export.
Just a thank you to Simon and Crew that you, from the looks of it, don't have or don't activate TH-cam's auto Language Voice changer for your Videos. Bcs I have had it in other Videos on other Channels and hearing their voices change from English to German, my App Language BCS I'm from Germany, sounds soo grating it is driving me nuts.
Switching armed forced to humanitarian missions will put a bold new face on your army. Looking at rebuilding the encomy with focuses to education, medical. And infustructor will see your first four years tested. Foreign aid would be encouraged but with protection to work forces and ensuring foreign business contribute to the economy in a big way.
Seems like he had that mapped out in advance... Apparently Russia offered military supplies and training while Iran was warning him about what was going on and he just behaved like he didn't care. Pretty sure his wife has leukemia. He likely just didn't care anymore. Either that or he thought that Saudi Arabia and the UAE were going to vouch for him and put a stop to this since that is who he turned to... If he actually believed that, then he was completely clueless. The Saudis have an unspoken rule about not screwing with Israel who very much supported his ousting
How does the US/Israel install tyrants in the Middle East? Many have a simplistic view of this. In reality, tyrants are made, not born. This process can take years. In summary, the US/Israel create the conditions which necessitate the rise of tyranny in the countries they want to control and destroy. How? Economic warfare is the first step. Severe sanctions ensure that the target country remains impoverished. Sanctions are "justified" by claiming the country harbors "terrorists." Right now, the US is offering the Syrian government the possibility of taking them off the terror list. If they take this deal, that is the first step for everything that follows. They will be forced to eliminate anyone in the country the US/Israel does not approve of, i.e., anyone who is anti-Israel and/or wants Islamic government. The US/Israel also work to isolate the target country so that they have no option but to buy from the US. This is critical when it comes to weapons. The target country cannot be allowed to have their own independent defense capabilities because these could be used against Israel and prevent future interference. This is why Israel quickly has dropped 500 bombs on Syria to destroy all existing weapons capabilities. The new government will have no choice but to buy from outside, and the US will require buying from them. An example of something similar happened in Iraq in 2003. The US bombed all the existing seed depots to deny the future Iraqi government the ability to grow their own crops and, thus, force them to rely on US agricultural products. As worsening economic conditions create popular unrest, the government has an increasing need for security. The US provides this security with intelligence and weapons: tanks, trucks, artillery, helicopters, jets. The US ensures that these weapons can only be used against the civilian population, not Israel. How? First of all, the types of weapons are not long range. Second, they are qualitatively inferior to anything Israel has. This is official US policy, that Israel always must maintain Qualitative Military Edge. Thirdly, they make sure that only American military personnel stationed in the country know how to maintain the equipment. This forces the country to allow the US to establish active military bases in the country. Fourth, the more advanced weapons are bugged to allow remote shut down. All this ensures the US-supplied weapons are only used to "fight terrorism," i.e., to repress the civilian population. As the government becomes increasingly besieged by popular unrest, they take more violent measures against political opposition to maintain power. This creates more dissatisfaction which triggers even more severe repression. This spiral ensures whoever maintains power in the Middle East has no choice but to do so in the most extreme, brutal manner. Even a leader who has good intentions initially slowly is forced to become a brutal tyrant due to the calculated pressure the US exerts. But there is an easy solution to all this. DO NOT TAKE THE BAIT. DO NOT ALLY WITH OR CATER TO THE US. The Taliban is a good recent example of this solution in action. After returning to power, the Taliban gained access to a large cache of weaponry that the US left behind. This boosted their ability to independently maintain security and sovereignty. Second, they have pursued a strategy of building economic and diplomatic ties with regional powers, like Iran and China. Unlike the US, these powers do not blackmail leaders, demand liberalization and de-Islamicization, threaten international sanctions, etc. The only way that the US tries to destabilize Afghanistan now is via ISIS proxies, which have limited effect. Muslims and anti-Zionists generally need to pressure the new Syrian government away from negotiating and making deals with the US. Otherwise, it won't be long before Syria is hollowed out and transformed into the next Jordan or Egypt.
In today's world it's more about outside forces and what they wish for the country.... Considering that these guys are supported by turkey with the approval of the US and Israel, this will likely become a destitute place
7:22 Simon, for the benefit of your global audience, would you please pass on to your writers to avoid referring to the time an event took place by season? Identification by month should suffice, and if you must identify a period of three months, try quarter, e.g. 'the third quarter of 2024'.
I have to imagine that, no matter how bad HTS might be, that it would be impossible to be worse than the Assad Dynasty? That said I just hope that the stuff HTS have been saying isn't just a charm offensive and that they genuinely mean it. Also I wouldn't mind learning more about Assad's Dad, since we always hear about his demon spawn of a son; or that might be a topic more for Into The Shadows?
If Idlib is any indicator, people will be safe as long as they pay their taxes. Those who don’t will probably get a “Shake down”. HTS is competent. And they’re good at government. But they aren’t angels
@@robertkeaney9905 I don't know if it's fucked up to say this, but considering Assad and then you've got Islamic State. I'll take HTS' 'not being angels' over the possible alternatives.
@@robertkeaney9905 their taxes collecting system is quite… extensive But then that's how they fund their operations after all and it can't be worse than Al Assad military checkpoints that takes money out of the peoples on tops of taxes to fund the Syrian Arab Army (apparently then not enough to keep a functioning army) Al Assad doesn't help either with his dismissal of actual competent general immediately after the last hot pharses of the Syrian Civil war has ended
I really hope I'm wrong but as I've learned with most of these Middle East deals like this the easiest thing to say is meet the new boss same as the old boss
I'm 58 seconds in and I can tell you exactly how this will play out. Those waring factions will continue to wage war killing thousands and committing unspeakable horrors in the name of "revolution". As the who pointed out in 1976 "meet the new boss, same as the old boss"
Remember when world events moved slow enough that Simon actually had time to dress up for videos?
When the stubble starts growing, you know we're all in trouble!
Timmay?
The impact actions have however has definitely increased. And that will increase the pace of change whether or not the pace of actions has changed. Assad wouldn't have fallen today if it were 30 years ago. We probably wouldn't even know he gassed his population back then.
@@jamstagerable I have to disagree. I'd argue politics, like physics, tends towards states of equilibrium. Assad's fall is a consequence of a process of shifting global politics. Russia invaded Ukraine, Western nations intervened by sending supplies, thereby sapping Russia's strength. Russia thus ceased assistance to Syria, which was propping up the Assad regime. The balance of power in Syria then shifted, and the regime's holdings collapsed when the rebels applied a bit of pressure. Russia disrupted the world's balance, and I think the rapid pace of events we're seeing is the world rebalancing itself.
@@jamstagerable toyotas are nonetheless faster than heavy medieval infantry
Simon… you have drastically improved your turnaround time on these videos lately and it is so noticeable. Best of all, you’ve done so without sacrificing the quality of your analysis or delivery. Great work!
I agree, however I don't understand how he can even consider forcibly moving the turkish kurds to rojava or call this a "not easy or kind solution, but..". Forcible resettling a whole people with this intent is called "ethnic cleansing" and constitutes crimes against humanity.. english is not my first language, so I hope I badly misunderstood.
@@mike496 these aren't his opinions. he's just the presenter.
Especially with Syria. Things are happening so fast it’s hard to keep up. He’s done excellent. I love his content always. This is just a new bonus
@@mike496the west doesn’t understand a lot. They see Syria as Syrians and nothing else- they always mention the christians but that is all. I agree with not forcing movement - it’s illegal and immoral. Make emirates with self government
I unfortunately have to disagree this time. There were a lot of factions and a lot of movements that I feel I needed to see a lot more maps than Simon this time.
I really hope that the people of Syria can finally have some peace, they’ve suffered enough already.
same bro i am syrian cold profile pic btw realy givs that "THE ONE MISTAKE IN ALL DIVINE CREATIONS IS MORTALS!!!"
The MLB commissioner offered them free tickets to any baseball game in 2025.
I guess.. I was in Iraq in 2004-2005 as soldier it was carnage. I went back in 2022 in a different capacity. You could go out to eat and stay at a hotel but they were still drone attacks while eating and laying in bed in my hotel room.
I hope so, but after lybia, Iraq and more, well let's be honest the leader of these guys is a former Al-qaeda and Isis fighter, I honestly can't say I genuinely see things getting any better, more likely to get far worse
I mean, the first thing is real did when they found out assad was to watch hundreds of missiles and air strikes into the country. So I don’t think so.
One thing is clear here; while the US may not necessarily have won, Russia/Iran absolutely lost.
Turkiye won here, they're the ones who supported HTS and the other rebels. This is Turkiyes win and Russia is PISSED. US as usual is there now bombing IS as they claim.
Hell yeah to that
Wow, what a myopic statement
@@zoranagavrilovic9403That is a preposterously ignorant lens to view this through. congratulations on being simple
@@robcanisto8635hiya bot
Last time I was this early it was still Warographics.
I noticed he's distanced himself from all the "graphics" channels he used to have
Assad???? More like _ASS_ SOD…
Simon and Co.:
Thank you for your continued excellent coverage of the stuff going on in the world around us.
I will say that I also loved it when you did videos on historic wars too. I hope you’ll consider sprinkling those videos in from time to time.
With that being said, thanks for all the content you pump out on a daily basis. You guys are phenomenal.
No time for those anymore!
Yeah I think he probably still wants too but current events are going wild right now, so probably on the back burner for now
Turkey and Isreal won
Grats on 1 million subscribers- best geopolitical news source, hands down
Damn, 2 episodes in one day.
Double the slop
Evan Moloney must be working round the clock on this...as a professional writer myself I appreciate what a gargantuan task it is to source, audit, and compile all the validated info to put a report like this together. IMHO: Warfronts presents a better strategic overview than all international legacy news channels put together. Big congrats to Simon and all the team.
1:05 - Chapter 1 - The state of affairs
8:25 - Chapter 2 - How to rebuild
15:30 - Chapter 3 - Enduring obstacles
This is some of the best geopolitical news commentary available anywhere on the internet. Thank you.
I would really like to see you do an in-depth look at the Kurdish situation.
Yes, and no romantic nonsense please. Give full historical background on PYD, YPG and PKK, who's "spiritual son" the leader of SDF Mazloum Abdi is.
@EternalKhannSDF isn’t the same as PKK though, there’s a reason US works with one and labels the other a terrorist org
Kurdish or pkk?
I am amazed of the speed you uploaded videos and professionalism in which you were able to cover such a fresh historic event with so much length and depth. Kudos
Simon We need a complete video of the history of Hafez Al-assad how he seized to power, and his son Bashar Al-assad, if you can make for us, will be very enjoying and much appreciated to you Boss. Thank you very much.
I’m pretty sure he already has.
I think that (relative) prosperity comes next.
Even if we conclude that HTS is going to be more repressive than Assad (even though I'd argue that that's a very, very high bar to cross, given what Assad has done), what's undeniable is that Assad's rule is marred by corruption, bureaucracy and just plain old nepotism.
HTS HAVE proven to be at least competent governors when it came to ruling Idlib. Replicate that at a mass scale in Aleppo, Hama, Homs, Latakia, Damascus and Daraa - and the rebel offensive might well prove itself to be a blessing for everyone in (and outside) Syria.
I was saying, even if HTS were just bullshitting and didn't plan to go through with all the positive things they were saying, it seems like they're going to be better than Assad pretty much by default. It really shows how damn bad the Assad regime was that basic competency is seen as a 'breath of fresh air'.
A lot of Syrian refugees in Europe are planning to return home. Hopefully they can bring the skills and knowledge they've learned with them to benefit Syria.
It’s not HTS that Washington is worried about.
It’s the Turkish puppet factions that are going to shell the hell out of Kurdish territory now.
And once the Kurds are pushed back, Isis will recover. Because the Kurds are the only force in Syria that can reliably keep Isis down
@thesenate1844 yeah i seriously doubt they're planning to return. Why return to a dump and have to rebuild when you have buffoon politicians that'll give you everything so they can feel morally superior? Besides that, I'm not totally convinced this is the end of the war, just the end of this chapter. Power is seductive and I don't see any of these groups willingly giving it up. More than likely, they'll be fighting each other next.
I agree that there is good reason to start feeling hopeful for the future.
I believe this Golani guy deserves a honeymoon period. When that honeymoon period ends will entirely depend on him and his organizations actions from here on out.
I’m usually pretty doomer about shit like this, but I don’t know, I feel very optimistic for Syria and the Syrian people. I hope I’m right. Some of the most beautiful people I’ve ever met are Syrian.
I'm worried this will be Iraq 2003 and Libya 2011, the dudes flew ISIS flags in Damascus, so..
@@eifelitorn Yea, I agree, that is worrisome, but after watching the leader of the HST speak, and reading more about him, I really do believe he can be a partner in the region, primarily because I do think he cares about Syria more than anything else. I think I'm more worried about the Turkey backed rebels than HST, or even what's left of ISIS, because I think HST would be more willing to work with the Kurds, who, with the backing of the US, essentially have complete control over one of the most, if not the most, profitable region in Syria (the largest oil fields), which gives them a huge bargaining chip due to that region being essential for Syria to be able to rebuild, while Turkey and the Kurds have been at war forever.
Like I said, I'm usually really doomer about this stuff, and maybe I'm just being overly optimistic because I'm tired of feeling that way, but so far, from what I've seen----minus the ISIS flags haha---I have hope, and belief, that Syria will be different from the other recent regional conflicts. I guess we'll just have to see what happens. One thing I'm fairly certain of is that Assad aint coming back, and just that is a huuuge win/benefit.
Cheers, hope you're doing well.
So far, HTS and its leader have been saying and doing all the right things. I truly hope that this is a sign of things to come.
@@HellaSayHella i truly hope you are right, but we've already seen some beheadings and ISIS flags waving around, so consider my skeptical
Honestly hope all Syrian people can return home even thou there might not be much left right now. Im sure the World will come to aid them. Lets cross fingers
What happens now is a power struggle. And most likely another autocracy, learn from the past hence Afghanistan and Lybia.
@@morbidzombiiAfghanistan ended up perfect. They are now building relations with the arab world as well as other asian countries. Libya however...
@@morbidzombiiFfs, shut up with the Reddit doomposting
No, more Syrians will flee the country under the threat of persecution. The EU is expecting 1.5 million new refugees.
It’s in your dream .
Love the channel. If I had to make a suggestion, when you talk about loses of territory and changing of frontlines, more maps.
Simon 2 episode in a single day, you Satisfied all your followers today, Hope peace, prosperity and stability for all Syrians, Thank you very much salute 🙏 👍
Haven't heard this much "Allah Akubar" since Afghanistan.
Aloha Snackbar
Given what it actually means, i couod easily see millions of Evangelical Christians shouting it too.
FYI, it simply means "God is great" in Arabic. Jihadis co-opted the phrase.
It's not an extremist phrase inherently. Yes extremists tend to say, but so do non extremists. In this case it means something similar to thank God.
@@vic5015 I thought it was "God is Greater". It seems to have slighty different interpretations.
@@ARIXANDRE Yeah, it kinda means "God is great/greater/greatest". It's not an extremist phrase at all and actually repeated a lot in prayer. But obviously, when you have extremist murderers killing for their god, what are they going to say but "God is greatest"?
Two Syrian videos in a day? You spoil us Simon
Excellent insight Simon 😊
Hopefully equallity and protection for all. Prayers for Syrians 🙏❤️
Naivety at it's very best.
Yeah ok lol
That was Assad just so you know
The Syrian leader now was a former al Qaeda leader and Islamic sharia jihadist etc. yeah, im sure they will be known for their equality and protection for all lol
Simon, no clue how you get these vids out so fast considering how many channels you have but damn are they good!! Thanks!!
Man we are getting spoiled today
Been waiting all week for this one
Its worth pointing out that the Turkish backed proxy group in the north fighting the Kurds are largely "ex"-ISIS and have already committed the kind of atrocities they did during the rise of ISIS. So outside the Kurds and a minority of other groups this is largely a takeover by Al-Qaeda and ISIS under different monikers.
Give HTS there due they have long since split from al Qaeda and as always the middle east every thing has layers
@@Sierraomega1991 There's splitting due to irreconcilable differences and there's splitting just to avoid association. HTS has previously been perfectly open about how they see the wahabist Taleban government of Afghanistan as a model for what they want to do in Syria.
I'd like to be hopeful, but I'm from Finland and we're pessimists by nature. Hence I can't see any reason why they wouldn't go back to their old ways as soon as international attention turns away. The "ex" ISIS rebels backed by Turkey immediately failed at that as have multiple groups under HTS.
As a local saying goes; A pessimist is rarely disappointed.
@@LAG09Who cares for if you're optimistic or pessimistic about a foreign country thousands of kilometres away, it's none of your business how they want to rule their nation. And unlike Isis or Israel these groups have spoken out against expansionism. Syrian Kurds are marxist-apoist terrorists who have history in attacking NATO nation of Turkiye, therefore Turkish security assessment is irrefutable as even Blinken had to admit in front of press a few days ago.
Syrian Kurds, only making 7% of Syrian population cannot (❗) control 1/3 of Syria and especially not the important oil fields. No bargain will be accepted, no autonomy granted. US will need to leave, Turks will make it happen.
Thank you for your work, thank you for sharing important knowledge
Dang! Simon and team out here putting in those overtime hours! Jokes aside, thanks for keeping us informed!
I sincerely hope Syrians would finally experience peace moving forward. It's so long overdued.
I wonder if any of the Syrians living in Sweden will go back
Inshallah! I hope so!!
Depends, Sunnis will go back but the minorities most likely not as they will not feel safe going back to a country being run by a rebranded al Qaeda
@@armi7028then why aren't they going to Iran then
WHY do you wonder that
@@zoranagavrilovic9403 Maybe he's neighbors with a Syrian refugee family that wants to go home? Don't just assume the worst right off the bat, c'mon
There’s a lot of reason for hope. But how often does the world get LESS complicated?
I'M GONNA BE SO INFORMED OH YEA
Love your videos
Great work.
People saying that things may end up worse for Syrians clearly don't understand how truly horrible the over half a century of Assad family rule was for the Syrian people.
I’m hoping for peace and freedom for the Syrian people. I pray that this is what will happen. No one deserves the hell they have been going through! I hope for peace and freedom and a better life and future for the country so refugees can return and be safe and happy and healthy ❤.
I just hope the Christian syrians will be protected
How about everyone that didn’t deserve that whole mess. It’s so SHAMEFUL how Christians only think of themselves… Shame on you! 🫵
Also the Kurds, Druze, Alawites and Assyrians
More worried about the Kurds, personally...
@@derrickthewhite1American proxies won't be treated kindly.
As usual the various factions are going to be at each other’s throats for control for the country. It’s about to get a whole lot worse. I’m sincerely hoping for a different outcome but I doubt it.
If they can get the Kurds and the Turkish backed rebels to come to a peace deal then that leaves the alawhites and Christians and other minorities and isis yeah theirs going to be a lot of ethnic cleansing.
This is what you normally see after a power vacuum has opened up. Hopefully things will not go that way
@@Dezzo0721 it’s going to go horrible for the people of Syria. You can paint a turn gold doesn’t make it gold. HTS is not a group of good people as much as everyone is trying to sell them as. It’s only a matter of time before they are back to their ISIS tactics and destroying the lives of the Syrian people.
Syria may be the most traumatized nation of thr 21st century, exceeding Afghanistan, the Gaza Strip, Ukraine and Haiti. It will take years for the wounds of the national psyche to heal and that's contingent with all factions agreeing to set aside their differences and work towards building a nation that is truly a livable place.
21:20 If they love a power vacuum then they should get a Kirby Avalir Platinum Vacuum Cleaner. With plenty of dirtbags available for recruitment at a reasonable price... The dirtbags, not the vacuum. That thing is $2,699.00.
Dang episode 2 In less than 5 hours
Two vidoes in one day. Wow
OMG I'm here early HI SIMON
I really, really hope the HTS is being truthful about transitioning to a moderate and less sectarian government, though I'm apprehensive. I really, really hope they come to a concensus with the SDF, and I really really really hope the SNA is forced to knock their crap off.
I think the SNA is the only faction actively looking for a fight right now. Most everyone seems to want the fighting to be over.
I love the GamerSupps cup by the way, great investment haha
I watched the other video first and now get to watch this one. World events are moving fast. I feel like things are just gonna speed up from here
Great episode!
I pray that the Syrians would learned from the mistakes of Iraq, Libya, and Afghanistan.
Are you going to do any videos of past wars again?
Türkiye is just the pain in the back side in all of this.
Let's hope Syria finds peace somehow.
Eye of the storm
What I find most interesting is the apparent debt to Iran. If I was HDS I'd just tell Tehran you loan money to Asad, not me
This analysis raises key questions about the future of Syria, peace, reconstruction, and the complex role of global powers. What's your perspective on this transition?
At 14:25 you mention Russia not withdrawing from the naval or airbases. As of the time of this comment, they have moved a large number of transports to the airbase to be prepared for evacuating, and the ships at the naval base are now out to sea.
The plight of the Kurds is one of the biggest tragedies in the Mid East. And it's one that muslims are happy to condone or ignore
While I completely agree with the first statement, the second statement ignores the fact that the majority of kurds are themselves muslim.
@@crystalquisalas i'm obviously referring to the non-kurd muslims. and it doesn't seem to be a shia-sunni schism thing too. Both shias and sunnis seem happy to ignore or condone the violence done by non-kurd muslims to kurds.
@@ryaneylee Well, think about the nonsense you've blabbered there. You expect any nation on the world to be okay with giving away their sovereignty and have a foreign-supported hostile nation being carved out of your lands.
Why not start at home? Oh, wait. Your forefathers were all for a state for the juice as well, but not in Central Europe, I remember. 😅
You're dishonest with your fake humanism. Give your minorities a nation first. The natives of America, Canada or Australia deserve their own states as well. And also, the migrants in Europe. They too deserve to live amongst themselves in peace and harmony. 😊
I wonder if Kurdistan will finally become a country soon
No! Turkey will be not allowed it.
Nope. Its a damn shame. Ine of the only people worth anything in the whole region.
Dont count on it.
I think turkey prevents that
Inshallah
Much of it seems to be the call of the Sultan of Turkey now 🤷🏻♀️
Positive comment.
I'm sorry to say it but I feel like in this video there should have been a lot more references to a map instead of the face of the presenter. I got confused very quickly with all of the factions and all of the territories being taken or lost.
Dude this war was like a freaking billboard. We saw it for like a second before it passed
I wouldn’t trust any group that randomly shoots aks in the sky
Now we must help Syria rebuild peacefully.
What are you talking about they are now under control of HTS just a rebranded ISIS group. The Christian’s are trying to evacuate right now before they start to get their heads chopped off.
Syria is balancing on the edge of an abyss, I pray they can steer away from the danger! ☠️🙏
You should talk about Qatar-Syria-Turkiye gas pipeline towards Western Europe.
I mean if that happens it would be good for Syria as they would make money on the transit fees and they would have access to cheap gas for power.
@@drgat6953 That pipeline might even be the thing to jumpstart Syria’s post war economy.
Europe is desperate for a cheap petrol ever since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. So this would be the perfect opportunity to get it.
Europe needs the oil, and Syria needs the money.
@@Kaiserboo1871the project is on natural gas, not oil. And it was proposed at a time when Qatar and Saudis had good relations. Probably still no real objections to it, but we don't know. I could also imagine Saudis being interested in a pipeline for their oil as well to Ceyhan port of Turkiye or a new port in Syria. Win Win Win for all except for Ruzza.
Couple thousand Syrian refugees here in NZ must be gagging to get home
Not if they are anything other than sunni Muslims.....
Great video two thumbs up
Interesting Times 🥂
Nuland and Kagan's baby should properly be called "The Institution for the Study of How to Profit From War"
We all know how this will play out.
I'm getting Chamberlain vibes from some of the quick move to demote HTS from the terrorism lists, they've literally only just won power
Your video is already outdated, HTS already controls Latakia, Tartous, and Deir Elzor
I work for a company that uses the acronym HTS. It feels weird hearing the acronym used for the rebel group. Nonetheless the power vacuum fears are warranted after what Libya went through after Qaddafi lost power.
First and love you Simon
Beat me by 39 seconds
The rebels burned the tomb of Hafez Assad. Bashar’s dad.
17:51
A lot of this is high hopes but this is just blind optimism. The tuks will never let that fly
Its the middle east asking if it can get worse is asking if water can get things wet.
Getting worse is something the region excels at and has enough of to export.
Some words are paired to indicate incompatability:- chalk and cheese, oil and water, peaceful middle east.
Short answer is no. The long answer is no.
Just a thank you to Simon and Crew that you, from the looks of it, don't have or don't activate TH-cam's auto Language Voice changer for your Videos. Bcs I have had it in other Videos on other Channels and hearing their voices change from English to German, my App Language BCS I'm from Germany, sounds soo grating it is driving me nuts.
Switching armed forced to humanitarian missions will put a bold new face on your army.
Looking at rebuilding the encomy with focuses to education, medical. And infustructor will see your first four years tested.
Foreign aid would be encouraged but with protection to work forces and ensuring foreign business contribute to the economy in a big way.
Can we have a timeline of how exactly Assad escaped fromSyria?
Seems like he had that mapped out in advance... Apparently Russia offered military supplies and training while Iran was warning him about what was going on and he just behaved like he didn't care. Pretty sure his wife has leukemia. He likely just didn't care anymore.
Either that or he thought that Saudi Arabia and the UAE were going to vouch for him and put a stop to this since that is who he turned to... If he actually believed that, then he was completely clueless. The Saudis have an unspoken rule about not screwing with Israel who very much supported his ousting
12:11 well, they won’t have to worry about that I was then I will say listen I ain’t paying them shit 😂
Don't say later"We didn't know"
Syrians: "Hooray, we're free!"
HTS: "I wouldn't say 'free'...more like, under new management."
How does the US/Israel install tyrants in the Middle East?
Many have a simplistic view of this. In reality, tyrants are made, not born. This process can take years.
In summary, the US/Israel create the conditions which necessitate the rise of tyranny in the countries they want to control and destroy.
How?
Economic warfare is the first step. Severe sanctions ensure that the target country remains impoverished. Sanctions are "justified" by claiming the country harbors "terrorists."
Right now, the US is offering the Syrian government the possibility of taking them off the terror list. If they take this deal, that is the first step for everything that follows. They will be forced to eliminate anyone in the country the US/Israel does not approve of, i.e., anyone who is anti-Israel and/or wants Islamic government.
The US/Israel also work to isolate the target country so that they have no option but to buy from the US. This is critical when it comes to weapons. The target country cannot be allowed to have their own independent defense capabilities because these could be used against Israel and prevent future interference.
This is why Israel quickly has dropped 500 bombs on Syria to destroy all existing weapons capabilities. The new government will have no choice but to buy from outside, and the US will require buying from them.
An example of something similar happened in Iraq in 2003. The US bombed all the existing seed depots to deny the future Iraqi government the ability to grow their own crops and, thus, force them to rely on US agricultural products.
As worsening economic conditions create popular unrest, the government has an increasing need for security. The US provides this security with intelligence and weapons: tanks, trucks, artillery, helicopters, jets.
The US ensures that these weapons can only be used against the civilian population, not Israel. How? First of all, the types of weapons are not long range. Second, they are qualitatively inferior to anything Israel has. This is official US policy, that Israel always must maintain Qualitative Military Edge.
Thirdly, they make sure that only American military personnel stationed in the country know how to maintain the equipment. This forces the country to allow the US to establish active military bases in the country.
Fourth, the more advanced weapons are bugged to allow remote shut down.
All this ensures the US-supplied weapons are only used to "fight terrorism," i.e., to repress the civilian population.
As the government becomes increasingly besieged by popular unrest, they take more violent measures against political opposition to maintain power. This creates more dissatisfaction which triggers even more severe repression. This spiral ensures whoever maintains power in the Middle East has no choice but to do so in the most extreme, brutal manner.
Even a leader who has good intentions initially slowly is forced to become a brutal tyrant due to the calculated pressure the US exerts.
But there is an easy solution to all this.
DO NOT TAKE THE BAIT.
DO NOT ALLY WITH OR CATER TO THE US.
The Taliban is a good recent example of this solution in action.
After returning to power, the Taliban gained access to a large cache of weaponry that the US left behind. This boosted their ability to independently maintain security and sovereignty.
Second, they have pursued a strategy of building economic and diplomatic ties with regional powers, like Iran and China. Unlike the US, these powers do not blackmail leaders, demand liberalization and de-Islamicization, threaten international sanctions, etc.
The only way that the US tries to destabilize Afghanistan now is via ISIS proxies, which have limited effect.
Muslims and anti-Zionists generally need to pressure the new Syrian government away from negotiating and making deals with the US. Otherwise, it won't be long before Syria is hollowed out and transformed into the next Jordan or Egypt.
I think the Syrians are more like: oh thank God the fighting might actually end.
Still much better than Assad and ISIS
the same happened in Portugal, Salazar Regime held out for 48 years, it only depends on the people, whether they are military or just citizens.
In today's world it's more about outside forces and what they wish for the country.... Considering that these guys are supported by turkey with the approval of the US and Israel, this will likely become a destitute place
7:22 Simon, for the benefit of your global audience, would you please pass on to your writers to avoid referring to the time an event took place by season? Identification by month should suffice, and if you must identify a period of three months, try quarter, e.g. 'the third quarter of 2024'.
Open minds. Humanity
Is there any Russian ships docked rhere
I guess We Can't See Anything worse we already saw everthing...
Gonna go with "failed state run by guys who have only ever read one book"
*"Who must go?"*
I have to imagine that, no matter how bad HTS might be, that it would be impossible to be worse than the Assad Dynasty? That said I just hope that the stuff HTS have been saying isn't just a charm offensive and that they genuinely mean it.
Also I wouldn't mind learning more about Assad's Dad, since we always hear about his demon spawn of a son; or that might be a topic more for Into The Shadows?
If Idlib is any indicator, people will be safe as long as they pay their taxes.
Those who don’t will probably get a “Shake down”.
HTS is competent. And they’re good at government. But they aren’t angels
@@robertkeaney9905 I don't know if it's fucked up to say this, but considering Assad and then you've got Islamic State. I'll take HTS' 'not being angels' over the possible alternatives.
Bashar's father Hafez Asaad was as bad, if not even worse than his sick tyrant son.
@@robertkeaney9905 their taxes collecting system is quite… extensive
But then that's how they fund their operations after all and it can't be worse than Al Assad military checkpoints that takes money out of the peoples on tops of taxes to fund the Syrian Arab Army (apparently then not enough to keep a functioning army)
Al Assad doesn't help either with his dismissal of actual competent general immediately after the last hot pharses of the Syrian Civil war has ended
I really hope I'm wrong but as I've learned with most of these Middle East deals like this the easiest thing to say is meet the new boss same as the old boss
I'm 58 seconds in and I can tell you exactly how this will play out. Those waring factions will continue to wage war killing thousands and committing unspeakable horrors in the name of "revolution". As the who pointed out in 1976 "meet the new boss, same as the old boss"
There haven't been signs of this happening at all
Am I the only one who hears the name Palmyra and feels an overwhelming need to sing it to the tune of Elvira? Or is that just me.....?
Joulani is Elensky with a beard 😂
Last time on, As the World Turns.