Bank of Canada Slashes Rates: What It Means for Mortgages, Housing, and the Economy

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  • เผยแพร่เมื่อ 13 ม.ค. 2025

ความคิดเห็น • 67

  • @TheVancouverLife
    @TheVancouverLife  หลายเดือนก่อน

    Connect With Us To Talk Real Estate:
    📆 calendly.com/thevancouverlife
    _________________________________
    The Bank of Canada (BoC) lowered its policy rate by 50 basis points this week, bringing it to 3.25%, the lowest level in over two years. This significant cut, which follows weaker-than-expected GDP growth and rising unemployment, has increased buying power for borrowers by 21%, enabling higher mortgage affordability.
    However, questions remain about whether these rate cuts are sufficient to revive the economy and ease challenges for mortgage holders renewing at higher rates in 2025. Despite the BoC’s confidence in achieving its 2% inflation target and avoiding a recession next year, rising insolvencies and declining consumer confidence suggest significant financial strain for many Canadians.
    Economic indicators paint a concerning picture. Unemployment has risen to 6.8%, the highest in eight years outside of the pandemic, with Toronto particularly hard hit, where the jobless rate has surged by 47% year-over-year.
    Consumer and business insolvencies are climbing sharply, especially in Ontario, which saw its highest single-month insolvency filings in 14 years. Additionally, consumer confidence has experienced its steepest decline since mid-2022, casting doubt on near-term economic resilience compounded by reduced immigration forecasts, slowing housing starts, and looming risks from potential U.S. tariffs.
    The housing market remains a mixed bag. Toronto sales rose 39% year-over-year in November, with prices showing a slight monthly increase, but pre-construction sales have collapsed by 84% over the past year. Nationally, arrears rates have remained stable at 0.2%, supported by significant home equity gains over the past five years.
    This equity provides homeowners with options, such as re-amortizing mortgages or downsizing, to mitigate financial pressures. Meanwhile, affordability is improving incrementally. Monthly mortgage payments for a typical Vancouver home have dropped 19% from 2023 peaks, and rental rates are also declining, signaling some relief for buyers and renters alike.
    Looking ahead, the BoC is expected to implement further rate cuts in early 2025, with a potential pause to assess the economy's state. However, with unemployment rising, consumer spending weakening, and housing construction slowing, the path to recovery remains uncertain.
    While rate cuts may provide temporary relief, deeper structural challenges in Canada’s economy suggest a long road ahead.

  • @peterplouf2836
    @peterplouf2836 หลายเดือนก่อน +19

    To a Canadian, debt is heroin: A rate cut just means that "consumers" will now go 21% deeper into debt.

    • @jupitereye4322
      @jupitereye4322 หลายเดือนก่อน +4

      Exactly. It isn't an affordability increase, it is the debt capacity that increased. It's an incredibly dishonest way to praise the current state of affairs.

    • @kalailam7423
      @kalailam7423 29 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      Totally agree. Encouraging debt lending is evil. Our world history proves it many times.

  • @truthteller6743
    @truthteller6743 หลายเดือนก่อน +7

    Variable went down by 50 basis points. However, fixed rates went up 15 basis points. BOC doesn’t control the US 10 year mortgage rates.

    • @GreenBeanGreenBean
      @GreenBeanGreenBean หลายเดือนก่อน

      you forgot the 2 weeks beforehand where rates went from 3.3 down to 2.8... then went back up a small bit on the rate cut.

    • @Jo-mf2vu
      @Jo-mf2vu หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      ​@GreenBeanGreenBean Whats more important is what have banks done since the bond yields have gone up? For the most part fixed is up around 25 bps since November.

    • @GreenBeanGreenBean
      @GreenBeanGreenBean หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      @@Jo-mf2vu you obviously have bad credit, because everyone else is getting rates in the low 4s.
      5 year rates dropped from 3.3 straight to 2.8 before going back up to 3.... all anyone talks about is the small increase as opposed to the large decreases.
      My variable rate could be below 4 by January.... but will definitely be below 4 by Feb. (it is a small mortgage so it doesn't really make a difference what the rate is, most of that rent goes into my pocket and not the banks)

  • @rickdavies4801
    @rickdavies4801 29 วันที่ผ่านมา +4

    Not enough buyers with money to let this go on much longer

  • @jasonwood8493
    @jasonwood8493 หลายเดือนก่อน +12

    People are just living off of debt. At some point the house of cards collapses

    • @tomaga5856
      @tomaga5856 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      Not when 5 banks control the economy, and have the most skin in the game

    • @TheVancouverLife
      @TheVancouverLife  หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      Canadian's are also saving at a record rate, and have over $6 in assets for every $1 in debt. Hard to forecast a collapse when the average Canadian is asset rich.

    • @Jo-mf2vu
      @Jo-mf2vu หลายเดือนก่อน

      ​@@TheVancouverLifeThose assets are tied to real estate. Not very liquid right now.

    • @Jo-mf2vu
      @Jo-mf2vu หลายเดือนก่อน

      ​@@tomaga5856It's taxpayers that have skin in the game. But the US doesn't care and will tariff us anyways. Not much banks can do to save the economy

    • @dr.indeanadegraff6929
      @dr.indeanadegraff6929 28 วันที่ผ่านมา

      You are so right. The average Canadian is suffering.

  • @roncgc8428
    @roncgc8428 หลายเดือนก่อน +4

    Canadian household debt just reached the $ 3 trillion mark. Canadian household credit card debt is at the highest level in history. Bloomberg and the IMF as examples have called the Canadian real estate bubble the biggest in the world. Household income versus average house prices in Vancouver are at multiples of 22. The ideal multiple is 4 to 6.
    The BoC is doing everything it can to save the market and it all starts with the CPLie.
    Sell if you can, buyers keep your hands in your pockets.

    • @tomaga5856
      @tomaga5856 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      Where were you when the market was peaking? Selling now is like locking in fixed a year ago

  • @jamesheron2282
    @jamesheron2282 หลายเดือนก่อน +4

    Canada has entered the Japanification era of our real estate. Japan peaked prices in the late 1980’s then stagnated those prices until where presently; 35 years later the dollar amount is the same as the 1980’s prices but the value of the Japanese Yen has depreciated greatly. Canada’s real estate will stagnate prices and our dollar will continue to devalue so in effect housing cost relative to local incomes will eventually return to the 3-5 times local incomes as for the next couple of decades Canadians will demand raises even with high unemployment as the devaluing dollar makes everyone poorer as house prices stay the same. Eventually the median local incomes in 15 years will become $250,000 and a home will still be around a million dollars so that housing is affordable once again yet on a per capita basis Canadians are far worse off. China, Europe and others are all heading into the same scenario due to global population projected to start declining before 2050 with China and European countries already losing millions of citizens per year due to low birth rates adding up from 20 years ago. It’ll be kind of nice to see the strains on infrastructure etc. start to ebb as population starts decreasing and Canada will have to adjust to these realities. ll have to adjust to these realities.

    • @tomaga5856
      @tomaga5856 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Japan's and Canadas immigration policies vary greatly. So do other variables like aging population replacement or lack there of etc

    • @jamesheron2282
      @jamesheron2282 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      ⁠are Canada’s current immigration polices really much different than Japan’s with Our government expecting negative immigration over the next couple of years? Canada faces a more difficult growth scenario than Japan did at the end of the 1980’s due to declining per capita GDP because Canada hasn’t diversified industry and is no longer attracting talent and has an economy based on jobs growth from the public sector (see Greece from 2008) and choosing to prop up an economy for 25 years by turning housing into a commodified Ponzi system that needs wealth imported in ever increasing measure. China’s growth story was an outlet for Japan to survive even while they ran up eye watering levels of debt. China is now a dramatic story of population decline and so they will not sustain Canada in the future. India’s population will crest within 15 years and they’ve already peaked per-capita due to a governmental system that ensures corrupt practices that keep the many poor and the few rich; there will be no Indian miracle. Forget African nations as even a continent combined there won’t be able to save the west.
      It’s slow but sure stagnation then decline and Canada’s people and government have allowed greed to do what it always does where it looks for short term highs followed by long disastrous declines.

    • @Proudcanuck88
      @Proudcanuck88 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Very optimistic outlook. How does this change with Dedollarisation and what if Alberta joins the US? Especially since investments for private sector are leaving Canada rapidly there are jobs left its just public sector jobs..We will be affected more since we don't have diverse GDP only real es Tate bubble and immigration.

    • @Jp1904lt
      @Jp1904lt 29 วันที่ผ่านมา

      This is the dumbest comment I’ve seen yet and that’s saying seriously a lot

    • @Proudcanuck88
      @Proudcanuck88 29 วันที่ผ่านมา

      @@Jp1904lt ignorance is a bliss my friend enjoy yourself while it lasts.

  • @tomaga5856
    @tomaga5856 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    Dan is one making sense for me here. Some people wont want to reamortize but they should! Why? Because our government will destroy the dollar anyways and its not a good indicator of wealth, thats why. In 10 years that debt will feel like its half as much because everything will be twice as expensive.

    • @TheVancouverLife
      @TheVancouverLife  หลายเดือนก่อน

      You make an interesting point, and there’s definitely a case to be made for reamortizing in certain situations, especially if it helps borrowers manage their cash flow in the short term. With inflation eroding the purchasing power of money over time, holding fixed-rate debt can indeed feel less burdensome as incomes and prices rise.
      However, it’s also important to consider the individual’s financial goals and risk tolerance. Reamortizing can reduce immediate financial stress but also extends the life of the loan, potentially increasing the total interest paid over time. It’s a balancing act-while inflation might "shrink" the relative burden of debt, it's still important to approach this decision strategically and with a long-term plan in mind.
      You’re absolutely right that the current economic environment is a strong motivator to rethink traditional notions of wealth and debt. Thanks for sharing your perspective-it’s a great addition to the conversation!

  • @alexhakimi7642
    @alexhakimi7642 หลายเดือนก่อน +5

    Its like we can’t talk about Canadian as a whole anymore lol
    One group got richer since pandemic 😷 their investment value has gone up, their stocks value have gone up, they have fix income getting huge interest on their savings, their income is higher they didnt have mortgage or if they had it wasn’t variable ……….
    And the second group rest of Canadian which they really have been feeling the pain of high inflation, groceries, gas, car, variable mortgage or rent…….everything been more expensive living by paycheck by paycheck, no savings and they keep on borrowing more and more………..
    I think when they talk about Canadian savings have gone up, it must be the first group!

    • @TheVancouverLife
      @TheVancouverLife  หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      You bring up an excellent point, and it's true-the pandemic and subsequent economic shifts have highlighted a growing divide within Canada. On one hand, we have individuals who benefited from rising asset values, fixed-rate mortgages, and higher interest income from savings. For this group, the financial landscape has been relatively favorable.
      On the other hand, there’s a significant portion of Canadians who are feeling immense financial pressure. High inflation, soaring grocery and gas prices, rising rents, and variable-rate mortgages have stretched budgets to the limit, leaving many living paycheck to paycheck with little to no savings. This divide is stark and concerning, as it shapes how economic policy impacts different groups.
      You’re absolutely right that when we hear reports about "Canadian savings increasing," it’s often reflective of the wealthier segment. Meanwhile, the other group is struggling just to stay afloat, borrowing more to cover basic needs. It’s a reminder of how complex and uneven the economic reality can be-and why it’s essential to ensure that policy solutions don’t just benefit those at the top but address the struggles of those who are being left behind.
      Thanks for sharing such an insightful observation-it’s an important conversation for all Canadians to have.

    • @tomaga5856
      @tomaga5856 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      It's the money creation that is keeping the poor, poor. Not the investors that protect against inflation

    • @tomaga5856
      @tomaga5856 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      ​@@TheVancouverLifeI don't think it's particularly favourable when I see my assets rise in nominal terms and in reality they are not "worth" any more than they did 4 years ago. Just have to pay tax on fake gains.

    • @TheVancouverLife
      @TheVancouverLife  หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@tomaga5856 You raise a valid point-nominal gains that don’t reflect a real increase in value due to inflation can feel like a hollow victory, especially when they come with additional tax liabilities. This phenomenon, often referred to as "phantom gains," can be frustrating for asset holders.
      What’s worth considering, though, is how this impacts different asset classes. For example, in real estate, even if the "real" value hasn’t risen much after adjusting for inflation, properties often provide utility (like housing) or income potential, which can help offset these inflationary effects. That said, the tax burden on nominal gains is a legitimate challenge, particularly in periods of high inflation where gains don’t necessarily translate to real wealth growth.
      It’s a tricky balance-asset appreciation can feel like progress on paper, but without meaningful increases in purchasing power, it doesn’t always deliver the benefits it should. Your comment highlights why discussions around inflation and tax policy are so important in ensuring fairness and economic stability.

  • @jamesheron2282
    @jamesheron2282 หลายเดือนก่อน +5

    Why use a single person with an income of $150,000 as your example for purchasing power when the median income for individuals in BC is under $50,000 (Canada-wide it’s just over $40,000)? The median household income in BC is just over $90,000 with typically four persons in the household. It appears that you may be shielded from the realities of regular Canadians as you may run in circles that reenforce belief that there is more wealth than actually exists in both BC and Canada. Being realtors may be a reason for a bias towards wanting increases in sales and prices for homes but median incomes are long trend connected to home pricing around the world and Canada has run low on wealthy foreign investors to prop up the Ponzi scheme that is our housing as we need to draw more and more wealth from abroad from countries that have less per capita wealth than Canada.

    • @TheVancouverLife
      @TheVancouverLife  หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      Thank you for your comment - it raises some valid points worth addressing. While it’s true that the median individual income in BC and Canada is much lower than $150,000, it’s important to clarify the context. The $150,000 income example we used is not reflective of the median income but rather of the typical income level for homebuyers in Vancouver.
      As realtors actively working in the industry and collaborating with mortgage brokers, we consistently see that homebuyers in this market generally earn significantly more than the median income, often in the six-figure range. This isn’t to dismiss the financial realities faced by many Canadians-it’s simply reflective of the economic dynamics of the Vancouver housing market, where affordability remains a major challenge.
      The takeaway from the video is that the average homebuyer in Canada has 21% more purchasing power today than when rates were at 500 bps. For illustrative purposes, we used a common income range for local buyers to show how rate cuts have impacted buying power.
      We understand the broader housing affordability conversation, but the video is focused specifically on current market data and trends within Vancouver's real estate landscape. We appreciate your perspective and encourage ongoing discussions about solutions to bridge the gap between incomes and home prices for a more sustainable housing market.

    • @Proudcanuck88
      @Proudcanuck88 หลายเดือนก่อน

      High income folks in that bracket get taxed a lot and since currency is getting devalued their PPP is lower. Many have left south of the border or elsewhere. Canada is 3 star hotel charging 5 star prices. Go where you are treated best.

  • @markmussington4131
    @markmussington4131 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    fixed mortgage rates edged up even with the 50 bps rate drop , how is that helping consumers

    • @GreenBeanGreenBean
      @GreenBeanGreenBean หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      after dropping from 3.3 down to 2.8.... you need to stop daytrading and trying to cherry pick your dates.

  • @peej91
    @peej91 หลายเดือนก่อน +4

    Last hoorah before the crash

    • @Canadian_Eh_I
      @Canadian_Eh_I หลายเดือนก่อน

      you are right. 2026 is gonna be rough....for most.

    • @tomaga5856
      @tomaga5856 หลายเดือนก่อน

      It already happened

  • @FamilyCheung-kc1pw
    @FamilyCheung-kc1pw 29 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Bank of Canada says they are comfortable with the inflation now, no worry about inflation, rang from 1 to 3% inflation is good. We should be fine, but we should more focus on economic and jobs now.

  • @redeye1773
    @redeye1773 หลายเดือนก่อน +4

    90% over valued

  • @alexhakimi7642
    @alexhakimi7642 หลายเดือนก่อน +5

    Bank of Canada will cut rate down to 1% in 2025.
    We are in recession, economy has been running on immigration mostly!
    People keeps talking about Canadian dollar value💵 rightly so, however, they choose to ignore two very important points:
    1- Lower Canadian dollar is good for export
    2- If you don’t cut rate enough, economy will suffer more = deeper recession = unemployment = lower Canadian dollar value anyway 🤷🏻
    Now add to all that Trump tariff and lowering immigration!!

    • @Doug-tc2px
      @Doug-tc2px หลายเดือนก่อน

      For prime 2-3% is more realistic, the covid rates went further then they wanted.

    • @tomaga5856
      @tomaga5856 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Pretty much sums it up

  • @neensatya4
    @neensatya4 29 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Isn't it in favour of economy of Canada,if it becomes a part of USA?

  • @redeye1773
    @redeye1773 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    hit the brakes after the crash dont help

    • @tomaga5856
      @tomaga5856 หลายเดือนก่อน

      That's why they hit the breaks a year ago, remember when they raised the rates? = Brakes

    • @redeye1773
      @redeye1773 29 วันที่ผ่านมา

      @tomaga5856 crash was 2020 so keep pumpin

  • @havmercy
    @havmercy 7 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Cuts means less value for the money and higher inflation 😵‍💫😵

  • @rawdata7175
    @rawdata7175 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    Invest in the USA
    It is a free democratic country that does not seize law abiding truckers bank accounts

    • @joeharvie8362
      @joeharvie8362 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Just buy bitcoin.

  • @Skspkp
    @Skspkp หลายเดือนก่อน

    country couldnt be run on real estate and immigration, country need productivity, forign investments, exports, future oriented investments, but unfortunatley canada has nothing one of these

  • @supermash1
    @supermash1 28 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Hongcouverstan house prices to the moon!

  • @phibinphilip2491
    @phibinphilip2491 28 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Investors are out of Canadian real estate market now lot of investors will invest in Us Stocks, inflation will go up again only First time Home buyers they dont have enough income and lack of unemployment in Canada . Rents went down lack of immigration there is shift in Real estate in canada . Beter Canada be 51 state of US.

  • @billferguson1368
    @billferguson1368 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    Such nonsense.

  • @derek04151
    @derek04151 หลายเดือนก่อน

    You still won't be able to afford it unless you work for Canada Post. 😂😂