Study says decoupling from China wouldn't spell disaster for the German economy | DW News
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 12 มิ.ย. 2024
- A new report suggests that cutting trade ties with China wouldn't spell disaster for Germany’s economy. Depending on how quickly trade relations are ended, German GDP would take a hit of just a few percentage points, similar to the impact of past crises like the pandemic. We talk with Julian Hinz, one of the authors of that study from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
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#Germany #China #Economy
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decoupling with your biggest buyer? how smart.
decoupling from your biggest supplier? that's even smartest
@@freethinker5384 I don't think anyone else can have an equal purchasing power like China
@@PatrickF7 cause we're all in debt above our heads
@@PatrickF7 Really. You can't beat all those consumers taking out huge loans to buy non-existent homes.
They won't have it as bad as when China decoupled from its biggest coal supplier (Australia) in the middle of winter.
Well, thing is: Most of the stuff sold by German companies in China is also produced on China
Whereas, Germany can start making things that China sells in Germany.
Last time I checked industries were closing in Germany.
Thise things that made in China are made by German and other foreign companies.
@@mattslowikowski3530higher energy cost, higher wages. it won't be competitive. everyone says bring the industry back but no one wants to pay the higher price
@@gudboyngdisyertoGerman wages are way lower than US wages for example, and the US are bringing industry back big time. Energy costs are the driving factor, that has to be adressed.
A perspective to consider: I think, for Germany, one of the disadvantages of so-called decoupling from China is the reality of more excessive reliance on USA. It seems to me that while many people are aware of excessive reliance on China will not be good, however, they seem to be blinded and ignorant by the fact that excessive reliance on any other single country, especially a "friend" country, will not be good too in the long run. Yet it takes strong leadership who could say 'no', which is more difficult when dealing with "friend" countries. This applies to all countries, not just Germany. Wisdom is key.
Well the US isnt going to give germany a choice. They can pick the US or China but the US isnt going to let you trade with both
US just isn’t a reliable partner anymore. Half the country lost its mind in the last ten years.
Of course, Germany could also choose to focus on the market it actually exists in-that is, stop trying to be an export champion, stop imposing self-defeating austerity on itself and other E.U. governments, let a greater share of income flow into the pockets of workers/consumers, and look at excess savings (and trade surpluses!) as just as much an economic burden as too much debt. The reason German firms think they can’t compete with Chinese manufacturers and American tech platforms is that it doesn’t have a massive domestic market to build up scale and Darwinian competition before the winners go global.
Or rather, Germany *acts as if it doesn’t have a massive domestic market.* Instead, it uses EU competition policy to beggar its neighbors, like US states squabbling for Amazon HQs or Toyota factories on steroids. There’s an obvious way to sustain demand for German products that’s Trump- and Xi-proof: Support policies that make Greek, Polish, Spanish, Hungarian, Romanian, Bulgarian, and Baltic consumers richer! Instead of seeing Eastern Europe as cheap labor supply for internal outsourcing of stuff to sell to Americans and rich Asians, view them as sources of untapped demand safe from any trade barriers.
A fiscal union that makes the income/spending gap between the poorest and richest E.U. members closer to that between US states benefits German companies and German workers above all. For all America’s toxic polarization, do you ever hear Silicon Valley or Seattle whinge about their tax dollars subsidizing impecunious, backwards Alabamans and Mississippians, like Germans in the euro crisis? No, because it benefits Amazon and Apple-and their well-paid-workers that as many people as possible in their domestic market can afford to buy iPhones and Prime subscriptions at healthy markups.
Stop pretending you’re at the mercy of big bad China, Russia, and the US, when it’s German ideological intransigence that’s left Europe so much weaker than the sum of its parts.
hey us army is there❤
Last I checked, the US was not a repressive dictatorship with concentration camps and plans to invade a democratic neighbour, and attempting to upset the Rules-based world order.
Germany would do whatever it takes to show its loyalty to the US, even if it means to amputate itself.
Just like some study saying cutting off Russian gas would be great for the German economy. LOL.
Dude, half of sale of WV car are going to China. Is that means we stop selling? That is the half revenue!
those cars are not made in Germany, they are produced in china. It would be bad for VW, but the effect on Germany would be minimal.
No ICE cars for sale in China from 2024!
@@thegreatdane3627 minimal? Germany main source of income is from automobile, and vw sell more cars in china than US, africa and middle east combined, LOL, it won't be minimal, german economy would be dead by 2moro.
@@IamHandsome4u if the cars sold in china are also produced in china, that means the loss of jobs and tax revenue would mostly affect china.
@@thegreatdane3627 china will suffer few job losses, while germany will suffer with whole economy going down, and not to forget germany economy is already going down.
Excuse me. De-coupling or de-risking are words invented by US and the European countries. Not by China.
That’s diplomacy. By cutting ties Europe lowers it’s risk regarding the inevitable war in the future if China will ever think about expanding its territory. And systemic rival means enemy.
It’s a European channel, I don’t see the problem in DW using their own words, be them “invented” or otherwise.
Of course! It's the West who wants to decouple. It's because China (CCP) is a risky and unequal trading partner.
@@pansepot1490 Is it ok to twist the truth and accuse someone else for it. I guess by exercising this mindset, you are always perfect. Hahaha
@@ANTheWhizkid Statistically china has never been an aggressor even when it was at its prime. That is the fact.
As if China would allow VW, BMW, basf, Siemens etc to continue operating in China if Germany chooses to totally 'decouple'
Western country’s can NEVER decouple from China, more specifically Western Europe, other countries like the USA, India, Brazil or Indonesia have the resources and growing political power, Europe does not.
India? it imports 100B from China each year and a lot of it to drive its own nascent industries. As for US, would Joe Blow accept paying 5x the amount for his tools from Walmart? Would he accept 10% inflation on goods and his own mortgage? I doubt so. People will come to understand and appreciate what China's large scale manufaturing at low prices did for their middle class lives in the last 4 decades @@beasley1232
Germany could survive everything look after world war two the super productive Germans built their country from wreck to global trade I think 🤔 if they can surmount those challenges what more now which presently they are solid in infrastructure and technology it will just be temporary pain but their freedom from Chinese control is more important
However, there are also sectors where China cannot compensate overnight. Especially the chemical and engineering sectors. In the meantime, many companies would shift their exports to other countries. India in particular will then play a relevant role. Largest population, many resources, closer to Europe via the water route and better communication as many can speak English.
This is what they are talking about.
Many experts also says that decoupling from Russia won't give bad impact for germany and europe in general. Look what happened to europe now
These socalled experts more like puppets.
What happenend? We have energy, we have food, we are alife and well. What happened?
What happened? The same happened around the world too but Russia had it worst.
@@kinngrimmnothing much happened, Germany was destroyed in world War 2 but bounced back to become one of the worlds top economies. The current situation is nothing more than a walk in the park in comparison. Don't worry too much about Putins boot lickers . Germans have been my best friends and I have worked with them and know what they are capable off, Russians don't come anywhere close.
@@crystal2484 Not trying to be rude or anything, but you are not making any sense.
If Germany is on its way to deindustrialization, then it would soon have little to offer to China and the decoupling would happen naturally.
Exactly and Germany agrees with G7 to sanction China so China will find its own solutions no longer dependent on G7 technology. That's a gradual shift very few people want to acknowledge and lead to the demise of the G7 economies
Let's acknowledge one unspoken fact -- German companies are making good money in Cina. eg. 50% of VW's worldwide profit comes from Cina. The other companies making lots of money: are the DE investment banks, the insurance companies, and the chemical companies. They make money, but they do not directly benefit German workers in German. Decoupling, or derisking as some would like to window-dress it, is a sly political ploy, but it is not a wise move, and it will backfire.
Is it a bit foolish to classify your biggest customer as rival?
😆Same as AUS, think tank also fund by Washxngton to keep the German inline.
Enemy
China is a enemy to democratic states
i'm glad we're finally taking this fact seriously
But the US has been doing that for quite some years as of now.
And Russia was sanctioned from all fronts and bannned from using US dollars, ... into an annual growth of GDP by around 3.5%.
So classifying one's biggest customer would really work ... and work wonders ..... (to the contrary effect though).
@@resnica3557 Germany needs China but not vice versa.
Go ahead. Life will go on. One block has energy, resource, manufacturing and market/population, while the other block has paper money. It's such arrogance to think that a country of 1.4B people depends on G7 countries with 0.8B people.
Sad for the people.
😅0ccupixd sinxe 1'9'4'5
single highest national security issue , when the country leader need to report to other country.
@@happymelon7129 really sad indeed …
China bot.
@@VVayVVard Brainwashed bot?
India has 1.4B citizens too. and India is part of QUAD. Indonesia has the 7th largest population in the world too. And China has territorial dispute with Indonesia in South China Sea. Vietnam is also not on China's side.
Australia also has resources (yes, China needs Australian iron ore and coal), and Australia is also part of Five-Eye and also QUAD.
Holland, South Korea and Japan has CHIPS, too bad China does not have membership in CHIP-4
Sacrificing yourself can’t be a way to express your loyalty to the US.
😅0ccupixd sinxe 1'9'4'5
Case in point: Scholz
Germany and the EU as a whole is never an independent political entity, they have to do whatever Washington tells them to do, regardless of their own interests.
😅U$A ”step on“ EU to stay afloat.
They defend and have defended Europe , we want to have friends not like Russia.
The same "study" suggested that EU does not need Russia energies and Germany economy has been doing so well after the "divorce "
Of course there is an impact on the German economy from the cut of Russian gas supply. But the German economy is not collapsing. The study predicted an impact but Germany could keep running. Which is exactly what is happening.
🤣🤣🤣 sarcasm.
Same as AUS, think tank also fund by Washxngton to keep the German inline.
This report try to _____people.
The Netherlands is a middle man, not a market.
The Netherlands, a "transit point" for distribution "China"😆
@@danieldevries5203 keep running with what ? Germany went from the richest country in europe to recession in less than 2 years because of Russia and now you want to add a bigger wound To achieve what purpose?
Gas storage is literally full with none of that coming from Russian pipelines and prices are simply up a bit on most products (which is also the case in most countries uninvolved in sanctions). Of course not selling to China will cause unemployment, but assuming we still import some stuff from there (albeit through a proxy maybe) the ramifications won't be massive.
More important question is "why Germany want to decouple from China " ? need to follow U$A 0rder ?
For People interest or politicians interest ?
Or for U$A politicians interest ?
Ask China. China wants to replace all Western companies with their and gain significant influence over European, USA, etc.
Sure because the CCP is very nice.
It is more than that. China wants first the "investors" to come and bring technology then after they copy and commit patents theft they build their own factories to compete again the investors at lower prices.Then they demand to sell their products in Europe just to balance their trade. It can't work like this for to long time, it has to stop because will bankrupt the investor .
@@johanneswetzler2861 Ah yes. While we're at it, how about we also stop trading with Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Egypt etc. I mean, their governments aren't any better than the CCP...
daddy American of course
Trying to create a narrative which is dangerous for the world is DW’s motto as news channel.
Same as AUS, think tank also fund by Washxngton to keep the German inline.
This report try to _____people.
The Netherlands is a middle man, not a market.
The Netherlands, a "transit point" for distribution "China"😆
Uncle sam is preparing Europeans for decoupling, so the europeans will have no choice other than manipulated by the US
yes,it's a US dong
@tedwong7037 The Americans do not allow other people to do business very Chinese, only themselves
ASEAN trades volume with China is much bigger than EU nowadays, while DW is focusing on geopolitical tension. EU economy is on a downward spiral when it's fighting a proxy war for America. More businesses and factories are moving out of Germany because of war, high energy cost and high inflation.
no wonder trade with China to ASEAN getting lower year by year. and ASEAN started produce their own goods.. thx to aggressive action in ASEAN region, many foreign companies leaving in China to set up their manufacturing hub in ASEAN region.
Germany isn't fighting a war anywhere, they don't have a military to fight a war with, as America pays the financial cost of handling it's security needs.
@@ColoniaMurder20where did u get that ? ASEAN TRADE WITH China is growing....
@@ganboonmeng5370EU ASEAN trade are also growing chinco. And guess where EU will place their factories in?
@@ganboonmeng5370it is growing but trade growth rate is declining, ASEAN trade growth rate with rest of world is increasing. I'm even seeing more products made in mexico, India these days
YEAH!!! Because the German economy is already a DISASTER 😅😅
So is China's, and to be honest most countries in the world have poorly performing economies right now.
@@martinogold Investigate before you speak.
This is a strawman argument. No one ever argued that the German economy could not survive a decoupling from China the issue was and remains that most of Germany's auto industry derives a large part of its profit from China sales. German auto's derive something like 40 percent of their revenue from China and employ over 800,000 people at home. A hit to their revenues from any decoupling would have a significant knock on effect on the rest of the economy which is why any decoupling would not go down easily.
Wasn't there a report that said getting rid of cheap oil from Russia wouldn't hurt the economy ?
Actually, how do yourself get rid of Cheap Oil?
You ban cheap Oil, to buy the more expensive One, just to hurt Russia 😂
Who's hurting who?
I don’t see how you guys always are concerned about Germany and it’s economy.
Russia is a poor backwards developing country compared to Germany. 25% of Russians have no access to a canalizations system and have a toilet in a hut 🛖 in their garden. And you want to tell me, that the german economy is a concern ? Because of gas exports from Russia ? 😂😂😂
best comment
you wont die anyway
No, u are confusing it with "wouldnt destroy the economy".
It’s amazing that Germany didn’t talk about decoupling from the country behind destruction of Nordstream but instead want to appraise decoupling from another country that hadn’t done any act of aggression towards Germany
It looks that those countries China and Russia wants to plan something together. If China realize that USA and EU has contributed the most to China's growing that will be wise for them. Unfortunately not sure if China works that way and it was not a plan to gain technological and economical advantages and after that to turn the table.
@@user-ek9go3kf2wYou said as if the western didn’t benefit from China’s massive market and low-price products. Decoupling brings pains to both sides.
@@yuzhang5520 Deng Xiaoping was asking Nixon how to feed so many Chinese back then. So as Nixon wanted Russia to be isolated accepted the deal to move capital to China and give some impulse to their economy. Yes, it was economical but not like the West or USA in special could not deal without China. So don't forget things can turn around. China has progressed a lot and should be wise and to not fall for a mad man like Putin.
@user-ek9go3kf2w As a Chinese I need to explain something, China's accession to the WTO is the common will of China and the United States, China needs to develop its economy, and the United States needs China to contain the Soviet Union. Ten years later, the Soviet Union collapsed, and both China and the United States got what they wanted. But China can't always be a sweatshop, making clothes and socks for Westerners, we also need to produce high-tech products. China's current development threatens the economic hegemony of the United States, and the United States without economic hegemony will also lose its military hegemony and eventually lose its leadership position, which is the reason why the United States wants to contain China. China does not want to help Russia in its war, but it can only maintain partial neutrality in its current international relations
are these the same experts who told us sanctions would destroy the Russia economy. And the EU would be able to obtain cheap oil and gas from other markets. I can't keep up with kids slang does 'expert' now mean 'complete fool'. anymore of these experts and everyone in the EU will be starving.
So Europe froze over and you're a popsicle?
@@ShadowPhoenixMaximusThe point is, the sanctions didn't do anything.
@gfys756 The sanctions weakened Europe and strengthened Russia. The outcome of the sanctions proved to the global south that getting out from under U.S. hegemony will open doors of opportunity and development.
Is like watching a comedy 😅
Or a snuff film.
Aren't those the same guys who said "we don't need gas from Russia" just to see their economies shrink in the following year? Yeah, they definitely know what they are talking about.
Then they still blame on others. Very clever people, hahaha
It's the same as saying "we don't need luxuries". Once you're older and less ignorant, you'll understand what they meant.
China get their gas from Russia, but China's economies are also shrinking. And China has depleted its FDI
nope
Study says that a person can survive even if he was cut off his hands.
I could understand why US wants to decouple to maintain its hegemony. Why Germany even need consider that?
German is western country
Hegemony ? Are you rustroll or sinotroll ? This is the only explanation
But it was china that forced the decoupling. For US it is just good business sense to move operations to mexico.
orders from the us. nord stream 2 was blown up by u know who and humiliated germany can't say a word.
cause they been ordered to destroy their own lives.
I AM A BUSINESS MAN, THIS WHOLE WESTERN STUPIDITY TO CALL TRADE DEPENDENCE IS CHILDISH. WE LIVE IN A GLOBAL COMMUNITY. TRADE IS WIN WIN NOT DEPENDENCE.
THE FACT YOU NEED TO USE ALL CAPS MEANS YOU ARE A LOUSY BUSINESS MAN, dependence is the magic word, you need to spread your risk or you are in for a rude awakening.
@@13BulliTsI use different route to work everyday, so I won't be dependent on only one route. 😅
@@cinpeace353 well, sometimes you have to when that's the only route you can afford.
China took all your money and jobs and they still want Taiwan and other things? Talk about greedy. Because China took all the world's jobs and money and that is why everyone else is poor and they tricked everyone into thinking it was the USA's fault. We should never have put all our eggs in 1 basket. Kissinger was dead wrong about giving China all the jobs, money and power so that they would turn into nice guys, let alone a democracy.
You are not a Business Man, you are Uyghur. Their population was reduced by a million recently, yet China says Israel is bad.
Until everything become so expensive that is. China provide cheap manufacturing, russia prpvide cheap energy.
Germany wouldn't be able to compete in global market price wise due to high energy and manufacturing cost.
Go ahead then. Isolate German further
the vast majority of Germany's exports are to other European countries. Germany would probably benefit if the EU decouples from china.
The vast of majority of China's "cheap" manufacturing has been exported to Africa. The CCP can't keep manufacturing costs low whilst "raising" standards of living. Even with the slave labour they get from ethnic minorities and political prisoners, labour in China isn't as cheap as it was before.
Germany exports high quality cars, and machine tools and motor parts like bearings etc
@@thegreatdane3627so they’re not doing it because they are just super duper nice right?
@@timpaull9340 Germany and the EU are not actually decoupling from china, at least not yet. At the moment it is more about reducing the dependency a little bit, and trying to level the playing field.
The Germans should be grateful thanks to China,It is very hard to find cashed up customers on scale who can afford Mercedes,BMw and Volkswagen.....try to sell these cars to India or Africa markets,buyers are very scarce.
That is true, of course. But if the current development in China continues, very soon neither will they.
i am in indian. Annual Mercedez sales in India 3000 , in china 600000 . I laugh when I hear India will replace china . India 20 years from now will certainly be richer than what it is today , but China is in a different league . US is pissing its pants looking at China's R&D initiatives and is creating all this decoupling Drama .
India and Africa are too poor to afford that. But Chinese consumers buy things made in china so the money that comes to Germany is pretty low in amount. And in most cases it just goes to private companies and doesn't make any difference to the economy in major ways
@@atherzaidi5871 That trade will go either way at the snap of a finger if the CCP wants to hardball on trade. Why trade with someone whos unreliable? It doesn't matter what is coming in if you can't predict how long it'll stay that way.
@@ShadowPhoenixMaximus u should be thankfull china is not saying the same thing back, otherwise ur economy would be dead.
it is a shame that Germany is not thinking about how to invest more in its own innovation, productivity to be more competative in its technology and product offerring to the global markets.
The other day we had Scholtz blaming Putin for poor economic performance. Due to the absence of Russian oil. Now this madness. You would think these two hate Germany
They are paid by the US to take Germany to ruin.
Putin caused 300k Russian casualties and caused the currency to collapse.
If you do as the Americans say:
->your economy is destroyed,
->your standard of living drops,
->you are joining a war you don't need to fight,
->against a country who really isn't your enemy ...
----- Colonel Douglas Macgregor.
This report try to fxxl people.
The Netherlands is a middle man, not a market.
The Netherlands, a "transit point" for distribution "China"😆
Took years and decades to build trade partnerships
Took immediate to destroy trade partnerships
They are just US' pawn and US don't want German shake hand with Russia or China. But out of their strategy Russia shake hand with China that US feel nervous about their domination of the world
It only took one man. And it all started in 2012. After that year, everything changed.
The Chinese people deserved better. Unfortunately, they didn't get to choose. So they just have to accept whatever happens. Unless, of course, they decide that enough is enough.
是的，为了别国的利益自毁前程是愚蠢的。人类的希望是合作而不是对抗，利用强权不停收割欠发展国家的海盗文化模式归根结底是邪恶的。
@@hellohi3416 China is just not worth Germany to destroy its own future. Germany has better comrades to work with, like Vietnam, India, Thailand, Taiwan, South Korea and Japan. The hope for Germany is to co-orperate with so many countries (like Vietnam, India, Thailand, Taiwan, South Korea and Japan). Germany should not serve as servant to China.
Germany can survive without imports and exports. Only DW needs to pay the bills 😊
😂😂😂德国之声就像教堂的牧师，他们除了念经，朗读诗歌什么都不会。德国之声应该大胆去调查谁炸了北汽二号，那是德国工业的血管，可被炸后德国居然没人说话。
Lebensraum will help tho
Survival at what price? What living standard will you expect? Survival from famine?🤣🤣
Yeah, after paying minimum wages for 50 years. I'm sure generation X will love price doubling.
You can barely live without Russia 😂
seems to be going just fine...
Yeah the sick man of Europe 😂
@@ashishanand4mechGermany is doing just fine without Russia 🇷🇺 Russia is a failed state anyway.
Yeal, growth next year and “even” with no Russia!!
That’s mastery, yes Germany committed mistakes by over relaying on Russia, but it turned it around in less then a year
Ohhh and did I forget to tell you..
Germany is now the THIRD LARGEST ECONOMY IN THE WORLD!!!!!!! Surpassing Japannnn
Best part is never again with Russia, besides Russia is an Asian country that would find better and faster access to other Asian countries
it only more expensive but its was not impossible other countries have oil and gas reserves,if im not mistaken qatar,usa,nigeria are top supplier to europe now, china personally i think is more tricky to decouple because they own minerals,they have a stronghold in the supply chain and beside the usa they are the biggest market for ´western companies´
... but why?
this is not addressed in this video.
why would germany be the country that needs to carry the weight of not trading on their backs?
how about Germany trades with everyone as much as they want?
Germany has been carrying the weight of being a monkey when it comes to foresight. They should and need to do this - they're not carrying a weight of anything here.
Because America says so ?
"German GDP would take a hit of just a few percentage points, similar to the impact of past crises like the pandemic".
Oh, that sounds like a great relief. How bad can it be? Just like going through the freaking pandemic again (but alone)!
The numbers - consequences - which have been mentioned are smaller than I estimated before. Good to learn!
It's insane to just mention the Netherlands and not the EU. The rest of the EU is Germany's biggest trading partner.
the point is, that many goods travel over the rotterdam harbour.
Decoupling from other places will soften with more thourogh supply chain ethics and the diversity of people's choices
The Netherlands is a middle man, not a market.
The Netherlands, a "transit point" for distribution "China"😆
More important question is "why Germany want to decouple from China " ? need to follow U$A 0rder ?
For People interest or politicians interest ?
Or for U$A politicians interest ?
@@happymelon7129 Why are you so nervous that germany want to decouple from China.
This guy apparently has not spent a day doing real job lol.
We have no idea what his real job is. US is known to pay institutions to publish their "insights". 😅
the only issue is with the institutional investment firms... production will go somewhere and cost will levelized ...
well, thing is, German never know that how small their country is and how much they can do.
So, when we have "decoupled" from Russia and China, do we finally decouple from the US, too?
the ride never ends
Nope. The EU is too weak to decouple from the teat of the U.S.
Germany barely has a functioning military. Good luck without US military might when Russia comes knocking.
The idea of decouple from China is to depend more on US. 😂😂
@@gfys756Russia just want to stop the American expansion to the east
They are not interested on Central n Western Euro
After the Second World War the soviet Union built a iron wall
They did not want to have anything to do with the western power
I'm sure Germany's economy is so strong they can afford to decouple from their biggest customer, 😂
The world’s largest chemical manufacturer BASF moved to China this year from Germany. The reason? It could not afford the energy costs since Germany put sanctions on Russian gas and so they had to buy expensive American gas. Now they are buying Russian gas in China, so what was the point. Germany is a puppet of the Americans and does as it is told to the detriment of its own people. Van der Leyden the leader of the European Union is married to an American, she has 7 children and they all live in America. She has American citizenship and was educated in America. How you put someone like that head of a political organisation like the EU is staggering. She does Americas bidding at every turn and is known to be corrupt
German export trade as of 2022.
United States 9.8%
France 7.4%
Netherlands 6.9%
China 6.7%
Poland 5.8%
See More Countries 63.4%
China is only 6.7% of German export market.
Germany import trade as of 2022.
China 13.0%
Netherlands 7.1%
United States 6.3%
Poland 5.2%
Italy 4.8%
See More Countries 63.5%
German imports 13% from China while exporting only 6.7% back to China. Germany will only lose 6.7% MAX of its market if it chooses to decouple. Those loses are extremely negligible.
So many bots.
China is not a big customer.... China (ex)premier Li Keqiang admitted that, 0.6 billion Chinese earn less than 1000 RMB, and 0.9 billion Chinese earn less than 2000 RMB per month. With such low salary (or disposable income) china can never be a big customer.😀😁😂
@@VVayVVard this is exactly what a bot will say
decoupling is no different from derisking. you want to select what to decouple / derisk other also know what to decouple / derisk
A few years ago, Australia decoupled agricultural exports with China for the first time, but our Dear G7 friends Canada and the United States seized all the Chinese markets given up by Australia within a month!
Same Was Said About Cutting Ties With Russian Gas And It Turned Out So Good That They Started Buying The Same Oil & Gas Of Russia Through India😂,1000 Iq Move
Chyna bot so tough using a VPN
Not to mention that China is on a WHOLE other level economically
Yes, and just like with Russia the emphasis was that it wouldn't hurt that much, which was largely correct. Germany went into a small recession close to 0%. In the case of China however he said that it would be 5% hit to Germany's GDP.
@@dennisestradda9746 Dude you literally have a photoshopped pic of the Chinese president as your profile picture🤣 if that's not bot activity I don't know what is
@@dennisestradda9746 says a bot.🤡
Dependence should not have been established in the first place
Different culture and different ppl make this world better...it's horrible if the world only have 1 voice to only follow America's will...
But China and Chinese want only one voice: CCP's will
@@aa-0731 You guys in Europe should know the normal Chinese people never want to take over the leadership or to be the only one voice. Rather than speculate and argue nonsense about whether the US and China have or will get the only one voice, you should raise Europe's voice and make it louder yourself, that is the way to avoid one voice, and I think China would rather see it.
@@kaideng8355
LOL Even in your country, a second voice is not allowed.
You don't dislike Europe following other's will, you just dislike Europe not following China's will.
@@aa-0731 That is just what you think and you even changed my words. Whether or not Europe follows China's will doesn't matter. I'm just trying to raise your awareness of your own problem, which is that you're just judging the world according to the ideology from the last century, without any thoughts of your own, commonly known as the lapdogs.
it is Chinese people's choice and non of other country's business...@@aa-0731
Should you decouple from China is a question for five years ago. Its too late to begin now.
Dude did you ever watch the report, LMAO
Anything that can be in Chinq can be made anywhere else it would just cost 10 times more
Chinese labor is also getting quite expensive
But those things can also be made in cheaper countries than China.
And labour is becoming less of a factor due to automation
it's cheaper to build nowadays factories in east Europe than in china, German companies move nowadays to east Europe. No Big shipping costs, and building a strong neighborhood is in the long run more sustainable for Europe as a whole
@@blacky4947 Where will the raw materials come from?
@@justin-kv1jh Portugal and Sweden. They have the largest rare earth minerals in Europe. They discovered it 4 months ago.
Why don't you guys give it a try, and see where the german economy is going?
Why are you so worried for Germany, you should worry for China's, when there youth are not getting jobs, and work as delivery and dispatch riders.
@@user-jj8kg5ef2tin case you can’t understand the video, it’s about Germany decoupling from China
What is the ultimate agenda for DW? First Russia and now China? then BRICS?
I am Chinese, and I understand why the United States wants to decouple from China because it has a trade deficit with China. But Germany has a trade surplus with China, what are the reasons for decoupling?
then what is germany waiting for?
Germany is not a sovereign nation but a colony of the country that defeated them in world war 2
Then you don't even know what a colony is.
By your definition, then so is Japan and S. Korea. These so called colonies such as Germany, Italy, Japan, and S. Korea are all in the top 10 richest countries in the world. If being a colony of the US means you get to be extremely wealthy and have a much higher standard of living than most countries, then it's a pretty damn good deal.
N. Korea who is a colony of China isn't doing too good. Mass starvation and defections whenever they get an opportunity. Compared to a 1st world country like S. Korea who is the 10th on highest GDP.
What do all the top 40 richest countries have in common? They all have extremely favorable ties to the US. What do all the bottom 30 countries such as N. Korea, Iran, Cuba and Venezuela have in common? They all have negative ties to the US.
5:42 “Taiwan is to be made a part of China? And Taiwan is a democratic [island].” So Taiwan is a island or an independent country? The host is quietly switching concepts here. Shame on you.
😂😂😂 indian going crazy
They don't even bother to make an excuse this time.
How is life without Germany? No more Mercedes, VW, and the lot.
Wunderbar ?
Refusing cheap oil from Russia added with cutting off yourself from the world's number one consumer is the height of madness. And for what exactly? Democracy, Way of Life, or what other nonsense this time?
Descendants of colonists can never become leaders of mankind
Descendants of communists can never be honest and smart.
Most ppl have at some point ruled over others
China is still colonising Tibet and East Turkestan.
Are those the same studies that said the german economy will survive without russian gas?
Istina boli ili vam je pao server?
What I don't understand is the meaning of threat from China. Julian literally said China is more dependent on Germany rather than Germany on China. In that sense, China is not a threat. If China is not a threat what is the rationale behind decoupling? The sole purpose of decoupling is to weaken both EU and China in order to keep US as the world leader.
best comment
the harm is that with a lot of stuff being made in China you're dependent on what China does.
like during the pandemic, because China put several cities in full lock downs a lot of trade got disrupted which let to a lot of products not being available all over the world.
Germany and the EU want to make sure that whatever they need on a daily bases is always available, so they need to manufacture those products in a safe and friendly place (ideally in Europe itself)
so they need to move manufacturing out of China and into other places.
also China gets increasingly hostile against other Asian nations and if/when that results in war, the West will side with the attacked party.
this will result in China trying to lass back and one of their ways of doing that is by halting all trade with the West.
so if you prepare for a stop in trade when it happens the hit won't be as hard as it would be without preparing for it.
PS. it's not just China that's becoming a more and more erratic trading partner, Europe should try to become (way) less depended on the US to.
every time the US holds elections it could do a 180 on everything, including relations with Europe. so Europe should prepare to one day be completely independent of the US (in trade, security and every other field)
From that angle, you may be right. However having said that what you are saying is against globalisation. Every country should manufacture goods themselves. Including China not buying goods from Germany? Do you see what sort inflationary effect this would have on the world economy? From my point of view as long as the products imported from other country is not strategically important, meaning something you could do without or less then it is not a threat.@@ChristiaanHW
The Pope has just in his speech declared Israel's attack on GAZA civilians as terrorist attacks. I don't think I have to tell you that who supply arms to these terrorists. More imporantly does Germany has factories produce arms for the terroists? If so they are your threat.
Not a threat now doesn’t mean not a threat in the future.
The rest of the world all know German is a servant not a country at all.
Who financed the study?
Was decoupling, then derisking and now, decoupling again. Make up your mind.
China welcomes trade but if some chose to cut off trade its their choice. China will not sent war ship and force trade on others. This could be blessing for China since it'll create more jobs in China to produce more things themselves.
Unfortunately the high level of corruption in China means that product quality will always be hit-and-miss, unless the government relaxes restrictions on whistleblowing and allows members of the public to spread information about problems. Otherwise companies will never have much incentive to improve.
The problem is that the Chinese middle class doesn't spend on consumer goods. The Chinese would rather put their income in failed housing market that is popping right as we speak. Why produce stuff if your domestic market is extremely weak because no one in China spends?
Edit - the median income to housing parity in China is 2/3. That means the Chinese spend 66% of their income on housing leaving only 33% for everyday use such as groceries, etc.
In the US, it's 1/3 so the middle class has a much higher consumer consumption.
China is already planning to invade another nation.
Lollllllll😂😂😂 so what's gonna happen when China doesn't allow german cars in the Chinese market?😂😂😂 China buys the most German cars in the world😂😂
Half of all luxury cars made in the world in a year, are sold in China. They have enormous wealth with 961 world's billionaires
those cars are produced in china.
@@thegreatdane3627 是的，请德国公司回自已的老家，让中国汽车销往全世界。德国，你死定了，你不是中国的对手。，我是中国人，你对我不仁，我对你不义，加倍奉还给你，北欧野蛮人。欢迎德国对中国脱钩，，这对中国有利，，这个世界不只有G7，还有一百多个国家，都是中国的市场。欢迎德国美国与中国脱钩，让中国更专注提高国内经济循环。这是中国的痛。中国成为了世界的工业奴隶，为世界生产微薄利润的商品。很可悲，但中国的产业都很强，生活确不太好，房价摧毁了一切，是时候改变了。请德国加油尽快与中国脱钩。
@@thegreatdane3627 Ye sbecause is cheaper, what is your point, to buy a car make in germany for 3 times the price haahah? That is exactly the problem at hand, nobody buys europenas product anymore, and you are over 40, so how are you foing to make your economy work?
@@santiagopayan2531 if the cars are produced in china, then it is not a big loss for Germany if they can no longer sell them in china. That is the point.
Why decoupling with China? The only reason I could think of is racism. Is China the only country that Germany has trade deficit?
8:51 ... look this trade ... what we give and what we get... must end!!
Why to do so? Who benefits? Is China so evil or is it because China is independent minded of the West? What has China done to deserve such considerations?
It is because Germany is a client state of the US. Can you tell me what the reaction made by the Germans after the US bombed the Nordstream gas pipeline? None. There aren’t any.
What happened last time you tried doing it with Russia? Don't play yourself
Why would you ? Isn’t cooperation better than confrontation ?
Thesame study that told you sanctioning Russia won't hit Europe back. Well try decoupling this time will definitely be different
Nobody has catched the key point yet, that either decoupling or derisking from China will allow both sides to be much unstable economically from each other. The perspective, from which European is taking consideration in, should not be the commercial object as China but the smart way to get mutual benefits. Frankly speaking, "China" is the most word I have heard in the video and it is full of a sense of adversary without any clue on analysing business sensibility. It is not "China" but the economic structure that deteriorate the profit of world economy!
This report try to______people.
The Netherlands is a middle man, not a market.
The Netherlands, a "transit point" for distribution "China"😆
I think somehow DU is getting funding from Americans.They are showing false pro American narratives for almost a year.First we all thought Putin is a culprit and killing poor Ukrainian people.But day by day it become clear it’s a cult business running by handful of Americans and they are looting their taxpayer money in the name of Ukraine aid.There is nothing about humanity in it.And who is suffering most I think Germany’s economy
Ok, sure. I'd like to see all German companies leave China, and all trade cease.
Your wish granted, DW.
I studied German at university and I am Chinese. Since I graduated in 2017, I have tried to establish connections with Germany and expand business opportunities, but this is basically impossible. I feel so depressed that in this day and age, I am so callously abandoned. Learning German seems like a waste of time. There are a large number of people in China who speak German. Many times we feel cheated. Be deceived by the prosperity and hypocritical of this world.
Historically China has been there for quite a while. DW is hoping for a life without China.
The idea of trading is that it would benefit both sides. If Germany doesn’t gain anything from China then why it trade with China in the first place? But if it benefits from the trade why decouple it?
What did China do to Germany?
Same question I keep asking
They got orders from Washington, you know they are occupied territory of US since 1945.
@@liang8255Germany is not occupied by us Americans Germany is only occupied by the German people Germany governs themselves.
A lot of American and European companies are leaving China… China is to expensive and to risky to run operations in the country no one want to do business with China anymore the same thing goes for Russia as well no one wants to do business with them either.
They bought hundreds of billions of machinery, robotics, chemicals and German luxury cars. The bastards.
Pumping money into Russo - Ukraine war. China wants to be a adversary
In terms of Imports - China's biggest import dependency is on China. 10% approx. If you want to replace those elements in your imports, the alternatives are limited and atleast 2x more expensive.
Decoupling would harm both countries, but Europe more, cause China is diversifying greatly, Africa, Russia, Iran and Latin Americans.
I guess the same scholar must have similar study before saying it's OK to decouple with Russia's energy. 🤣Keep on!
The most important trading partner of Germany is the Netherlands. Bear in mind that the Netherlands just has a population of 18 million people.
Not as what you might think. The Netherlands has become the logistics hub in the EU after the UK Brexit. Germany's trade with Netherlands means the latter is only being used as "transit point" for distribution to other countries in the EU.
Germany imports 2x from China as they do from the Netherlands. Also, most of what the Netherlands exports to other EU countries it buys abroad... it's just a big logistics warehouse. I wonder how much goes to Germany indirectly from China, through the Netherlands.
Christ some people are dim. The Netherlands is a middle man, not a market.🙄
@@alma09876 "transit point" for distribution "China"😆
More important question is "why Germany want to decouple from China " ? need to follow U$A 0rder ?
For People interest or politicians interest ?
Or for U$A politicians interest ?
Why would Germany be thinking about doing this now? How is this advantageous to either side, now?
A few years ago, Australia decoupled agricultural exports with China for the first time, but our Dear G7 friends Canada and the United States seized all the Chinese markets given up by Australia within a month!
Didnt colonization happened because of the lack of resources in Europe?
You can always hypothesize decoupling and be positive about the situations, but by decoupling from China, who else will pick up the slack in trade and economy?
Vietnam, India, there are many...
Vietnam is small.. and India? India?
Vietnam has millions ton bauxite deposit but unable to process@@3cosmo
India and Southeast Asia have a total 2.2 billion population
@@Liboch India is bigger than China and the people are well educated, China is too political with Xi fluffing, not conducive for business anymore
DW asking the real questions. And try to give a de ent answer. 😊
long OVERDUE
More important question is "why Germany want to decouple from China " ? need to follow U$A 0rder ?
For People interest or politicians interest ?
Or for U$A politicians interest ?
German's present leaders are American's lackey that always acting as american's lapdogs
@@happymelon7129 Nobody wants to trade with an aggressive foreign dictatorship. They've seen the threats ping has been dishing out to others and would prefer to trade with friendly countries.
@@happymelon7129No, it’s that China is increasingly hostile to foreign businesses including arrest and constantly stealing tech.
If they don't decouple, EU car market gets wiped out by Chinese EVs.
If they decouple, EU car export to China gets wiped out by kicking themselves out.
Lose lose and choose one.
Or start importing Chinese technologies to make better products like BMW, VW and Tesla have done with CATL.
Wish DW defined their interpretation of "Decoupling." Sure, the trade between the two export giants will continue; however, the Germany's investments in China will greatly diminish in the near future. Germany will be just fine.
Not disaster, just more stagnation. Like every time Germany does what Washington tells her to do. How many more years of stagnation?
However many necessary since no European country is going to turn its back on its roots and shared European heritage for short-term profits.
More years on stagflation.
so basically derisking is decoupling lite…
and this analysis is flawed because you fail to recognise that other players also have agency. This analysis assumes that only Germany will take actions, and other players will just sit back passively and let things happen
This report try to______people.
The Netherlands is a middle man, not a market.
The Netherlands, a "transit point" for distribution "China"😆
Why is this even a question?
If volkwagen ceo told the shareholder . Ok folk we quit 1.4 billions chinese market and money iam pretty sure that ceo is gone in 1 hour time bracket
Just ask this few manufacturers, BAYER, BASF, BMW ,VW, MER-BENZ THEN guaranteed in 1 months time your country will go into recession in the not too distant future. Go ahead, set an example for the Euro Zone. No offense
I'm afraid I cannot share your optimism. An abrupt decoupling - for example as a result of sanctions due to a conflict between China and Taiwan - would cause unbelievable chaos in the electronics industry. It would take 5+ years to replace production capacities in Taiwan and China. Keep in mind that a single missing part will prevent the production of an electronic assembly. Virtually every product you find on the market today will use at least one semiconductor fabricated in Taiwan and/or packaged in China. Not to mention countless passive and interconnect components from China. A decoupling would need to be gradual - for example through progressively increasing tariffs - and would likely result in countermeasures by China. Their past behavior on rare earth products can serve as an illustration.
De-risking with regard to China and Taiwan are already well underway. The CHIPS Act passed by the US provides for major subsidies to American chipmakers and construction of new factories and enlargement of old ones are now in progress in Phoenix, Arizona, Ohio, upstate New York, Georgia, and other states. Accordingly, much of the sting of a major disruption will be alleviated in 3-5 years. As the guest alluded to, China has far to lose in any disruption than the West does, as it is currently the one running large trade surpluses with the West and also has extremely low levels of domestic demand.
the world is big and the west is not the only market for chinese products.
can countries having a long term plan and consistently doing it? I've seen the next administration undo or reverse the previous administration's plan.
is china derisking from unfriendly countries: yes, like doubling investment in Vietnam (which also com... county), invest in Hungary, and many others.
in short, china will find ways to increase export import surplus, the surplus usually announced in February, I believe this year surplus will increase around 10%.
@@wangyaohan8824 Time will tell, but one thing is clear: no non-democratic country has *ever* escaped the middle income trap.
"their past behavior", you mean their retaliation?
no war between china and taiwan. but someone is deliberately playing the war narrative. who initially rised the idea of decoupling? promoting the war game helps their goal. very smart.
Where will the new suppliers come from? and why in the first place did you forge trade ties with other countries? Basic sense needs to move around there.
That's rad.
I dare you to try.