Tested the long version (buy 4 straight red bars; sell 4 straight green bars) on SPY. 78% win rate since inception (1993) on 109 trades. Avg win 3.6%, avg loss 4.9%. Avg trade overall 1.8%. Avg hold time 30 bars. QQQ is slightly better, with an avg overall trade of 2.5%. The corresponding leveraged ETFs (TQQQ, SPXL) avg about 4% per trade. Simple but effective strategy.
Wow! 😳This is not a mere strategy! This is a complete in-depth study! I've never seen such complete system with so many variations of exits, trade management and back test results! Wonderful! I'm heading straight to your website to learn more ...
Thanks for posting the video. For the "Bailout" exit, did you try Optimizing the number of Profitable Closes by setting it up as an exit Input? Further, once you find the middle ground for the “Exit after x Bars” you could then run the strategy through a Walk Forward Optimization to test for robustness and look for any significant improvement. What do you think? Would you post a video on it? Thanks.
in My opinion: is better u used Bollinger Bands if the 4 Candle green or red but outside the upper/lower bands especially at H1 GBP/USD, what do you thing ?
Great video. But have you not taken into account a need for an uptrend (however defined) before buying after 4 red bars ? If not aren’t you catching a falling knife or is an uptrend not needed ? Thanks
Cool. Rather than just using your 15 years data to determine standard optimizations, you could also use walkforward (as you've done at other times) to try to get more responsive values. Thanks for the video.
I coded this strategy in an MQL5 EA and the results do *not* mirror what we see in this video. Tried the stop/reverse and the time based exits, and both yield terrible/negative results. Did not bother with the other exits after this abysmal start. I cannot explain the difference in results, but I trust my code and I used years of back-testing historical data. So, this is a pass from me.
Try other pairs and indexes. AUD/JPY, AUD/USD, CAD/JPY, EUR/GBP, FRANCE 40, JAPAN 225 for 2023 - good results. Some with reverse, some with MA30. But you need to find the best SL.
Thought your intro says this strategy works best for gdp/usd. All your examples on multicharts for exits were nzd/cad. Just want to clarify.. does it work for both? Thank you!
I would like to see your results where you exit at X number of profitable closes or exit at Y number of unprofitable closes. Example exit at 3 profitable closes or exit after 10 unprofitable closes.
Great video, thank you. One question. Ifyou are using Oanda charts can I assume your daily candle start and end at 12 midnight UK time. Some other platforms use midnight New York time
Interesting. But there is a point where these strategies get a little bit ridiculous. 500pip stop loss, daily timeframe..? There are definitely better strategies out there. Exceptionally high win rate shouldn't be the focus either. This only sucks in the newbies looking for the holy grail. R:R with good risk management should be the focus.
For practical reasons, there is no way to enter on the close, because it CLOSED. It's either 1 minute before the Close or the Open of the next bar. And for FX, it is bad idea to do that as the spreads are wide at the 5 pm New York Close and subsequent open of the next day.
2:42 Yikes, that's a lot of overnight costs. Doubt that one was profitable. 5:30 Truth! how do you reduce holding costs if you're holding a position for 40 days?
Have you tried a strategy where you buy if you get a bullish bar and sell if you get a bearish bar at a particular point in time? You can use an 'x' amount of bars exit or a fixed tp and sl. I've tried it a bit on the SPX500 and it surprisingly works for the most part in determining trend direction for the day.
Can you be my mentor please ? I like your scientific approach to this trading business .I want to be like you, be able to code my strategies and backetest them like you do .I have background in programming and I'm a very fast learner .thank you.
@@TheTransparentTrader I understand. Would you consider making a kind of beginner video, for swing trading strategies like that? Maybe like how much capital you would need, or which Broker is good for swing trading… stuff like that. I mean I would imagine with a SL of 500pips and a 0.01 position size would mean a 50euro SL for example. And my question would be in a strategy like this would I also only risk 1% of account size like in majority of scalpi strats? That would mean I would need at least a 5k account right to risk 50euro on my 500pip SL‘s. Im pretty interested in strategies like this
Did you know that out of 100 traders that succeed in trading only 10 of them trade manually and 90 trade automated. Almost all winners of trading competitions is algorithmic traders. I just don't understand why so many people waste years of their life trying to learn something that is so much more difficult
That HUGE LOSS can WIPE OUT ALL YOUR GAINS FOR MANY MANY DAYS! I don't think this would pass a test from a professional firm! Interesting ideas though which possibly could be improved!
just look the ratio of "Avg Win / Avg Loss", and then understand that 90% sucess is not a magic. on every 1$ you loss, you make profit of 0.14$. that's not good.
![127: Building Mean Reversion Trading Strategies with Cesar Alvarez-Part1 [AUDIO ONLY]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/7fbgEnOYRB4/mqdefault.jpg)
Tested the long version (buy 4 straight red bars; sell 4 straight green bars) on SPY. 78% win rate since inception (1993) on 109 trades. Avg win 3.6%, avg loss 4.9%. Avg trade overall 1.8%. Avg hold time 30 bars.
QQQ is slightly better, with an avg overall trade of 2.5%.
The corresponding leveraged ETFs (TQQQ, SPXL) avg about 4% per trade.
Simple but effective strategy.
Wow! 😳This is not a mere strategy! This is a complete in-depth study!
I've never seen such complete system with so many variations of exits, trade management and back test results! Wonderful!
I'm heading straight to your website to learn more ...
The tip regarding exits is absolute gold.
Tysm
Thanks for posting the video. For the "Bailout" exit, did you try Optimizing the number of Profitable Closes by setting it up as an exit Input?
Further, once you find the middle ground for the “Exit after x Bars” you could then run the strategy through a Walk Forward Optimization to test for robustness and look for any significant improvement. What do you think? Would you post a video on it? Thanks.
As always, great interview!
Very blessed to have you guys in this space.
Many thanks as always I appreciate the results of your hard work that you share with us.
Wow, thank you so much for this amazing strategy and for always giving us super quality content. I will look it up immediately 😊
in My opinion: is better u used Bollinger Bands if the 4 Candle green or red but outside the upper/lower bands especially at H1 GBP/USD, what do you thing ?
Thanks for your support for the community great video information thanks for your help 👍
Great video. But have you not taken into account a need for an uptrend (however defined) before buying after 4 red bars ? If not aren’t you catching a falling knife or is an uptrend not needed ? Thanks
👍Thanks. Yes, the idea of taking partials and splitting trades is very valuable. 👍
Do you have a video of how to implement this into an automated trader with multi charts?
Thanks for this - really well explained!
Great stuff as usual!🎂 I like the idea using the entry with different exits....🎆
very nice i like the simplicity of the technique
Top video Jarrod. Well done.
Cheers Wayne!
Thanks for the free guidebook. I Really liked your content sir 👌
I tested this out short on the Shark fin on GBP/USD. Worked very well. I'll add this strategy to my toolkit. Thank you.❤❤❤
Such an educational video! Thank you for sharing everything in this video, Jarrod!
Glad you enjoyed it!
What is the software you sre using for the stategy analysis. Thnak you
what an excellent informative channel!
what about smaller timeframes, and maybe also crypto?
Thank you!
Great work Jarrod, an enhancement I’d like to see would be separate results for long and short trades, how difficult would it be to include this?
This is gold! Thank you sir
Cool. Rather than just using your 15 years data to determine standard optimizations, you could also use walkforward (as you've done at other times) to try to get more responsive values. Thanks for the video.
I coded this strategy in an MQL5 EA and the results do *not* mirror what we see in this video.
Tried the stop/reverse and the time based exits, and both yield terrible/negative results. Did not bother with the other exits after this abysmal start.
I cannot explain the difference in results, but I trust my code and I used years of back-testing historical data. So, this is a pass from me.
Try other pairs and indexes. AUD/JPY, AUD/USD, CAD/JPY, EUR/GBP, FRANCE 40, JAPAN 225 for 2023 - good results. Some with reverse, some with MA30. But you need to find the best SL.
@@kinogo2362I did try other pairs. Same result
Another amazing video. Thanks buddy!
Thanks!
what timeframes does this work on ?
This is just for the daily. It's worth testing others though.
Is there a certain price range of stock that’s best for this?
Sir thanks for all ur teaching I will like to ask DMI stochastic Extreme and 2 period RSI don't they almost do same thing
Great Stuff. Thank You 😀
Thought your intro says this strategy works best for gdp/usd. All your examples on multicharts for exits were nzd/cad. Just want to clarify.. does it work for both? Thank you!
Dear friend, What is your best NASDAQ trading strategy for the long term and on a day trading?
I would like to see your results where you exit at X number of profitable closes or exit at Y number of unprofitable closes. Example exit at 3 profitable closes or exit after 10 unprofitable closes.
Good idea!
Thank you so much for this video.
Great video, thank you. One question. Ifyou are using Oanda charts can I assume your daily candle start and end at 12 midnight UK time. Some other platforms use midnight New York time
With Oanda, my daily bars start at 17:00 EST - 16:59 EST for 5 bars per week
You should do a video on pairs trading using Z-score
Thank you for this very good video!
Jarod what do you think is the best strategy to use as a new trader in the forex market? Thanks
good video . thank you
Interesting. But there is a point where these strategies get a little bit ridiculous. 500pip stop loss, daily timeframe..? There are definitely better strategies out there. Exceptionally high win rate shouldn't be the focus either. This only sucks in the newbies looking for the holy grail. R:R with good risk management should be the focus.
For practical reasons, there is no way to enter on the close, because it CLOSED. It's either 1 minute before the Close or the Open of the next bar. And for FX, it is bad idea to do that as the spreads are wide at the 5 pm New York Close and subsequent open of the next day.
He explained that already, he exits 15 min before the close, which on the daily bar is fine.
@@petersmith730 I spoke of ENTRY as he does early in the video
I enter and exit 15 minutes before the close. Sorry if that wasn't clear.
what time frame do you use?
This is for the daily time frame.
2:42 Yikes, that's a lot of overnight costs. Doubt that one was profitable.
5:30 Truth!
how do you reduce holding costs if you're holding a position for 40 days?
Please try on gbp/cad.
Not working wit SL250 for 4 bars reverse and with MA30 too.
When entering, does it matter if any of the 4 candles appear on a Saturday or Sunday?
If you have your charts set to NY time zone and showing only 5 daily candles per week, you won't see any candles at the weekend.
Have you tried a strategy where you buy if you get a bullish bar and sell if you get a bearish bar at a particular point in time? You can use an 'x' amount of bars exit or a fixed tp and sl. I've tried it a bit on the SPX500 and it surprisingly works for the most part in determining trend direction for the day.
Interesting. What time frame?
@@peternjovu8385 1 min, so you can see the direction the first candle closes in the testing range.
My favorite scalp system is looking for a volatility break and then quickly going in the direction of the move.
Thank you !!!
Can you be my mentor please ?
I like your scientific approach to this trading business .I want to be like you, be able to code my strategies and backetest them like you do .I have background in programming and I'm a very fast learner .thank you.
So I’m pretty new to trading…
Do you always use a stop loss of 500pips in these strategies?
Each strategy generally has a different stop loss value. I find a stable value during the testing / development process.
@@TheTransparentTrader I understand. Would you consider making a kind of beginner video, for swing trading strategies like that? Maybe like how much capital you would need, or which Broker is good for swing trading… stuff like that.
I mean I would imagine with a SL of 500pips and a 0.01 position size would mean a 50euro SL for example.
And my question would be in a strategy like this would I also only risk 1% of account size like in majority of scalpi strats? That would mean I would need at least a 5k account right to risk 50euro on my 500pip SL‘s.
Im pretty interested in strategies like this
how much is being risked per trade?
There's no position sizing here. Just trading 1 full lot every trade.
You are the best
Did you know that it has been scientifically proven that this guy has a brain over four times bigger than any of us?
Haha 😂
thanks sir you are great
Did you know that out of 100 traders that succeed in trading only 10 of them trade manually and 90 trade automated. Almost all winners of trading competitions is algorithmic traders. I just don't understand why so many people waste years of their life trying to learn something that is so much more difficult
That HUGE LOSS can WIPE OUT ALL YOUR GAINS FOR MANY MANY DAYS! I don't think this would pass a test from a professional firm! Interesting ideas though which possibly could be improved!
Very interesting, but urgh, daily TF... I admire the patience of those who can do this.
Well, you just open trading account once per day:) No need to stare in monitor whole day.
GBP/USD 4 BARS reverse with SL500 - 2023 is L.
经常会遇到连续4红之后 继续红，岂不是要赔光了
just look the ratio of "Avg Win / Avg Loss", and then understand that 90% sucess is not a magic.
on every 1$ you loss, you make profit of 0.14$. that's not good.
poor. its 59% not 90%. multiply by how much each win/loss is. big losses
Good way to lose a shit ton of money...
Not very useful if not tested in out of sample.
There's over 2 years out of sample for both the stop and reverse exit and timed exits.
It pays to listen to what you are being told in the video.
None of his strategies work in real life.