Been adding on this dip under $62 more specifically and it’s a brand I’m familiar with as someone into fitness and health and going to the gym 5 days a week its a brand I see a lot of people drink
… Thanks for doing this one. I’ve been curious about it. It has been a pretty wild ride over the last month or so. It’s about back to where I bought my first position, so I haven’t lost anything… And I don’t plan on selling anytime soon. I am debating whether or not to add to it, so we’ll see how that one shakes out.
100% agree with the part about pricing and valuation, buy price matters a lot. But no moat? People are hooked to the product like are to Coke. It took them 20+ years to figure out how to marketing effectively to its audience and it's a brand that advertises with Ferrari. Beverages have a huge stickness factor. Nothing is a bigger moat than addiction and habits. Monster is the wrong competitor or comparison. It's a different category of a product with a very different target group. I'd put it under the broad category of beverages, like coke, pepsi & gatorade. It isn't a real energy drink, despite having tons of caffeine, it doesn't have sugar and it's just a very different product. It doesn't mean it is better or worse though, just it's TAM is unknown.
My own FOMO is keeping me out of the market right now. I take it as a contraindication lol. I work for a HUGE (mostly good and beverage) retailer (I am at headquarters in R&D) and our sales SUCK. They are worse than pre-COVID. We made bank during Covid (I got a $35K bonus) but it just sucks right now and it’s declining.
I believe insiders and the family who inherited shares from an early investor are driving the price down, and news, valuation and sentiment are justifying the downtrend, but that's short term noise. They just announced two new flavors and are growing just fine. I think this correction is a massive opportunity for those willing to hold long and ride some volatility
This thing is hard to own. I bought it, and seemingly overnight I had 50% gains. Should have booked it, and ended up getting stopped out when it tanked . I am not seeing it on end caps in the stores I frequent anymore. Everyone wants to own the next Monster beverage. But you need balls the size of coconuts to take a sizable position for the long haul.
I would never look at a company like this. Im nearly all tech focused but im looking hard now because i feel its healthier than other energy drinks and super sticky as I am hooooked the celcius powder mix. 200mg of caffeine per packet. Works out to about 1$ per drink compared to the can which is upwards of 3$
Thank me for tanking it. I bought just $300 worth of it. Extremely tiny part of my portfolio as my plan was to DCA it over the next year with weekly buys off a few hundred bucks.
Their net income/ Free Cash flow = 59% that is a yellow flag I learned about in your accounting course. It should be close to 1 but I'm still learning the difference between accrual accounting and cash accounting. Is there some sort of manipulation going on? About $35-$48 I might start a position. Its Price/Free Cash flow is around its 5 year average, so not quite cheap yet. The 1st quarter 2024 is their lowest revenue growth quarter at 36.8% in the last 5 years. True about the moat, it doesn't have the brand loyalty of the large drinks, and there are many ways to get caffeine such as coffee, tea, etc... Maybe they should have a light caffeine version of their drink so caffeine sensitive people could drink it and other people can drink it later in the day.
It's almost entirely b/c of accounts recievable and inventory going up. Inventory up isn't a huge surprise, as the company is simply growing. The accounts receivable may be because of the Pepsi partnership -- that would require more digging
Brian, thank you for your analysis on Celsius. I was doing well but made some bullish moves in the bearish months of March and April. My question is twofold. First is it looks like I bought Celsius at close to its highs and it has dropped over 30%. I have a decent position at a large loss. It seems like there is a lot of unknowns on their future. Would it be wise to 1.) keep the stock for its potential upside. 2.) sell off partially or totally or 3.) add to the current position. I have beat the Nasdaq and S&P over the year but am lagging greatly this year. I have pruned some losers and added more to strong positions so I am going better but still lagging. Year to date I am at 7.71 % after a strong June. The second question is considering other growth areas doing better would it be a better choice to move money to less varied number of stocks?
I am in CELH long and have played it thru 3 earnings dates..I would add to my shares now to average your cost per share down...wait for August earnings high point (which is usually about 2 weeks AFTER earnings dates) then sell out totally...wait until 50 to 54 days before next earnings date and buy back in big...
In CELH holding long term to me makes little sense..there are no divs and safe call premiums suck on weeklys so once a quarter in on shares as mentioned and
I live in LA. Everyone have stared to talk about cyanide in the drink. I saw the news about a person hospitalized after drinking 2 bottles . Now their brand refrigerators disappear from Target, Ralphs and many supermarkets in LA. They have lost their spaces in stores.
Everyone who is fitness oriented is still talking about cyanide in the drink. Regardless if true, that negative talk is not good for the brand. Especially something you drink. Seems like social media made it rise, then took it down
@@WilliamRoscoe I think I saw that he removed the video and made a statement so he couldn't get sued. It seems others have saved the video and are sharing it. IMO since this is a legal case, any media platform allowing the video to be uploaded without the explanation from the creator should be liable. CELH should sue Tik Tok/TH-cam for this loophole.
Only selling energy drinks is a very, VERY vulnerable position to have going into a recession. Consuming those and coffee are the first things people would cut for years.. Therefore less addiction potential also..
@@UziGameGP Maybe... But as war as I know Buffett went into CocaCola after the 1987 crash, not before. The sell-off already happend, that made it a perfect timing, because confident customers spent lots of money again. Exactly the opposit of today. And on the other hand CC was already a great company for decades with robust fundamentals, many products and cultural significance worldwide. The comparison limps a bit, doesn't it...
![[Full] 4 ต่อ 4 Celebrity EP.920 | 3 พ.ย. 67 | one31](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/KwiW2M_kAg4/mqdefault.jpg)
Not a big fan of non-tech stocks but I had to buy some at 53 yesterday
I have a good bit that I have had over a year.. It has been painful the last few weeks... I hope it gets the Stoffel bump
Been adding on this dip under $62 more specifically and it’s a brand I’m familiar with as someone into fitness and health and going to the gym 5 days a week its a brand I see a lot of people drink
I think 10 year expected growth is too long of an estimate
… Thanks for doing this one. I’ve been curious about it. It has been a pretty wild ride over the last month or so. It’s about back to where I bought my first position, so I haven’t lost anything… And I don’t plan on selling anytime soon. I am debating whether or not to add to it, so we’ll see how that one shakes out.
100% agree with the part about pricing and valuation, buy price matters a lot. But no moat? People are hooked to the product like are to Coke. It took them 20+ years to figure out how to marketing effectively to its audience and it's a brand that advertises with Ferrari. Beverages have a huge stickness factor.
Nothing is a bigger moat than addiction and habits. Monster is the wrong competitor or comparison. It's a different category of a product with a very different target group.
I'd put it under the broad category of beverages, like coke, pepsi & gatorade. It isn't a real energy drink, despite having tons of caffeine, it doesn't have sugar and it's just a very different product. It doesn't mean it is better or worse though, just it's TAM is unknown.
3:31 3:35 😅 3:52 p😅😅
My own FOMO is keeping me out of the market right now. I take it as a contraindication lol. I work for a HUGE (mostly good and beverage) retailer (I am at headquarters in R&D) and our sales SUCK. They are worse than pre-COVID. We made bank during Covid (I got a $35K bonus) but it just sucks right now and it’s declining.
A bit too late, may it be bcz the inflation and it s effect on consumers?
Any thoughts on Service Now. Thanks!
I believe insiders and the family who inherited shares from an early investor are driving the price down, and news, valuation and sentiment are justifying the downtrend, but that's short term noise. They just announced two new flavors and are growing just fine. I think this correction is a massive opportunity for those willing to hold long and ride some volatility
How does Celsius score on your antifragile franework?
Poorly. No network effects, no switching costs, no counter-positioning or low-cost manufacturing advantage.
This thing is hard to own. I bought it, and seemingly overnight I had 50% gains. Should have booked it, and ended up getting stopped out when it tanked
. I am not seeing it on end caps in the stores I frequent anymore. Everyone wants to own the next Monster beverage. But you need balls the size of coconuts to take a sizable position for the long haul.
I would never look at a company like this. Im nearly all tech focused but im looking hard now because i feel its healthier than other energy drinks and super sticky as I am hooooked the celcius powder mix. 200mg of caffeine per packet. Works out to about 1$ per drink compared to the can which is upwards of 3$
Thank me for tanking it. I bought just $300 worth of it. Extremely tiny part of my portfolio as my plan was to DCA it over the next year with weekly buys off a few hundred bucks.
energy drink market is oversaturated. its growth is stalled.
Their net income/ Free Cash flow = 59% that is a yellow flag I learned about in your accounting course. It should be close to 1 but I'm still learning the difference between accrual accounting and cash accounting. Is there some sort of manipulation going on?
About $35-$48 I might start a position. Its Price/Free Cash flow is around its 5 year average, so not quite cheap yet. The 1st quarter 2024 is their lowest revenue growth quarter at 36.8% in the last 5 years.
True about the moat, it doesn't have the brand loyalty of the large drinks, and there are many ways to get caffeine such as coffee, tea, etc... Maybe they should have a light caffeine version of their drink so caffeine sensitive people could drink it and other people can drink it later in the day.
Might be stock based compensation. They recognize the expense on the income statement but no actual cash goes out.
It's almost entirely b/c of accounts recievable and inventory going up. Inventory up isn't a huge surprise, as the company is simply growing. The accounts receivable may be because of the Pepsi partnership -- that would require more digging
@@stoffelbrian appreciate the reply and enjoying your financial statement course.
@@wnose appreciate the followup didn't think about that one. I will have to dig in the financial statements more.
Brian, thank you for your analysis on Celsius. I was doing well but made some bullish moves in the bearish months of March and April. My question is twofold. First is it looks like I bought Celsius at close to its highs and it has dropped over 30%. I have a decent position at a large loss. It seems like there is a lot of unknowns on their future. Would it be wise to 1.) keep the stock for its potential upside. 2.) sell off partially or totally or 3.) add to the current position. I have beat the Nasdaq and S&P over the year but am lagging greatly this year. I have pruned some losers and added more to strong positions so I am going better but still lagging. Year to date I am at 7.71 % after a strong June. The second question is considering other growth areas doing better would it be a better choice to move money to less varied number of stocks?
I am in CELH long and have played it thru 3 earnings dates..I would add to my shares now to average your cost per share down...wait for August earnings high point (which is usually about 2 weeks AFTER earnings dates) then sell out totally...wait until 50 to 54 days before next earnings date and buy back in big...
When you are considering jumping on a stocks train study the 1 year 1 day and 3 year 1 week charts carefully for entry/exit points...
In CELH holding long term to me makes little sense..there are no divs and safe call premiums suck on weeklys so once a quarter in on shares as mentioned and
similar brands with famous influencers are taking share
Are you going to share FCF tool like you have some other ones?
I think u get it if u pay for his program
Nice video
I thought you'd change the name of this channel?
Give it 48 hours ;)
PE 21 is ok, you may wait $53
I live in LA. Everyone have stared to talk about cyanide in the drink. I saw the news about a person hospitalized after drinking 2 bottles . Now their brand refrigerators disappear from Target, Ralphs and many supermarkets in LA. They have lost their spaces in stores.
Oh really, that's interesting.
People “are talking about it”?
Or that’s a fact?
Everyone who is fitness oriented is still talking about cyanide in the drink. Regardless if true, that negative talk is not good for the brand. Especially something you drink. Seems like social media made it rise, then took it down
I'm really surprised they haven't sued that guy, because anyone who understands the basics of chemistry knows that he was full of shit.
nobody is going to remember that in like 2 months
@@WilliamRoscoe I think I saw that he removed the video and made a statement so he couldn't get sued. It seems others have saved the video and are sharing it. IMO since this is a legal case, any media platform allowing the video to be uploaded without the explanation from the creator should be liable. CELH should sue Tik Tok/TH-cam for this loophole.
@@cloudz83 usually the case
bought 35k at 55$
The downtrend started when the Insider cashed out for ~$5m 5/22/24
Only selling energy drinks is a very, VERY vulnerable position to have going into a recession. Consuming those and coffee are the first things people would cut for years.. Therefore less addiction potential also..
That's what ppl told byffet when he went all in on Coka Cola.
@@UziGameGP Maybe... But as war as I know Buffett went into CocaCola after the 1987 crash, not before. The sell-off already happend, that made it a perfect timing, because confident customers spent lots of money again. Exactly the opposit of today. And on the other hand CC was already a great company for decades with robust fundamentals, many products and cultural significance worldwide. The comparison limps a bit, doesn't it...
Pepsi sucks
A lot of viral videos lately.
The next recession is around the corner so i will keep my cash and wait a little longer
Very nice video