I’ve been retired 1.5 years. At retirement I switched to a 60/40 portfolio. I’m using 3 different Vanguard Mutual funds. I had been in a target date fund. My portfolio was down last year, of course. My draw down was much less than the market. Plus, my dividends almost covers my additional expenses. I’m sleeping well at night. Thanks for your positive out look. I like it better than all the doom and gloom out there.
Right before retirement you are suppose to switch from risk to all non-risk in your profolio. 100%. I sure wish financing was a mandated class in high school so people could learn the very basics of investing.
@@WheresWaldo05 I don’t know any financial planner that recommends that. The 4% rule was based on at least a 50/50 portfolio and up to a 70/30. If you wanted your money to last at least 30 years. Where would you put your money that was risk free? There’s even a risk for putting it under your mattress. I’m confident in my plan.
I have a dividend growth income account on top of my 401k, roth ira and hsa. So i won't be touching my 401k really. Especially now that the required age for RMD's (required minimum distributions) will be age 75 once i am retired. New age switch starts in 2033. I will be living off earned dividends yearly and my account dividend growth rate on average exceeds inflation comfortably. Historical inflation is 2-3% over the last 100 years. My dividends currently grow 5-6% year to year. This strategy makes selling stocks and stock share price appreciation irrelevant. The stocks will never get sold. Unless a company cuts its dividend at which point i would sell and reallocate those funds to another stock. The account will transfer to a beneficiary upon death. Warren buffet bought 1.3 billion worth of coca cola stock in 1988. 35 years later his yearly dividend payout after 35 years of drividend growth is 704 million. That is a 54% return on investment. So only one more year of a dividend payout and he will be paid back all of his money from first purchase just in this 2 year period. Plus all the other previous 30 some odd years of profit. And the payout gets larger every year as cocoa cola keeps raising their dividend. Now you do not want to just put all your eggs into one basket. And he certaintly doesnt either. But the same thing can be done by investing into a 12-20 dividend paying stocks. And starting the earlier the age the better.
As always thanks Erin, you hit all the angles. I know my style is on the aggressive side I was 100% Stocks until age 57. I’m now 8020 I guess I kind of believe in the Steve Fisher theory but my financial advisor said that I had won the race. Why am I still running? It made me realize that I definitely need to get more conservative, so that when I stop working, I’ll be able to draw a salary off my investments every year not just when the markets doing well. I will most likely be 7030 when I retire. I have gotten more conservative as I’ve aged. Which is probably a good thing.
Active investor for over 30 years - absolutely great videos for the beginner = I learned "ALL" your channel content on my OWN & NEVER used a financial advisor either! The Vanguard research on stock/bond split returns over 92-100 years = I found mid-way in my investment journey.
6:53 These are cons of diversification per se; they’re cons of *bonds*. Properly diversified stock portfolios (large cap, small cap, intl, emerging) are way more stable *and* grows faster than the standard 60/40 if that 60% is all in large-caps, which is what most people do.
As I enter my 3rd week of retirement, I have been using a somewhat modified three bucket strategy, which is more based on dollars than percentages. Bucket 1 contains cash, cd's, money market, etc, and bonds. It holds about 3 years of expenses. I currently have 4.5 years before I collect SS, at which time, the size of this bucket will drop considerably. Bucket 2 is high quality dividend stocks and ETF's. The dividends until now have been reinvested, but will now be used to replenish Bucket 1. Bucket 3 is strictly growth funds, which would only be used in extreme emergencies, and major expenditures, not accounted for in normal expenses. All financial calculators and financial people I've talked to says it will work well, and have plenty to leave for the kids, if desired. We shall see!!!!!
Based in what you've described, the only thing I can say is drink plenty of water, get lots of rest, keep up your fitness, and enjoy life. You'll have enough money to last many years.😁 We're so tired of working. It feels like we are sailing on stormy seas. However, our next milestone is going to be a big one so I'm keeping my eyes on the prize.
I love this approach! And I sincerely hope that the McDonald’s robots are not asking you for any additional tips these days , they have to understand you’re a retired man now😉 I hope you’re having a wonderful retirement!
I am 66 and will retire in 1 year but will take SS when I turn 70. My bucket strategy is very much like yours but I will have no bonds. This is OK because my SS covers most of my spending and I will only be taking about 2% from my retirement saving.
@@ErinTalksMoney The kiosk that asked for tips was a McDonald's in Ohio that stopped at for breakfast whenever I traveled to Indiana for work. I don't need to do that anymore! Retirement has been GREAT so far! Big decisions ahead, like which golf club to join next year!!!!
I've had a 100% stock portfolio for 15 years and plan to continue this allocation until 3 years before I retire. This obviously is not for everyone, but I have an iron stomach when it comes to risk/volatility, so I'm not bothered at all by huge market drops because I see it as a fire sale and I just keep on dollar cost averaging. Again, I know it's not for everyone, but it has absolutely paid off for me. I am all about maximizing growth and history shows that this is the best way to do that. I will focus on cash accumulation during the last few years before I retire.
I also like having most of my money in stocks. My plan is to use the bucket system Bucket1 - 3 Years out of the market (cash, CD etc) Bucket2 - 40% in dividend mutual funds (they are less volatile because they are value) Bucket3 - The remainder in growth mutual funds.
This is the proper and correct way to invest before and during retirement. Anyone doing it any other way is wrong. That isnt opinion but mere fact. Ask any financial/investing expert.
So happy you made a video on this topic. Whenever I try to engage a new friend about investments I always start with what their investment mix is. I usually only get a blank stare back. Sad. Good info!
Retired two pensions, SSI, 80/20 split with years worth of income in T-bills, and money markets for emergencies. Totally debt-free. Money generated from stocks is just icing on the cake, not really needed but happy I have it.
I think the best time to assess your risk tolerance is when things are not going so well. If you only ask yourself, what if questions when everything is going well, it’s easier to come across more confident than you actually are.
I've focused on saving early in my working career, but now in my early 60's am working towards a heavy dividend paying portfolio. I have enough dividends coming in how to live off of them completely. This is not 100% secure, but gives me options on how to support myself in my retired years.
For funds I need > 8 years from now portion 50% VTI and 50% VB, For funds I need 3 to 8 years from now PFF, JPST, Bond ladders. For stuff I need within two years plus emergency fund: Cash, CD's.
I think it makes sense to gravitate towards the 60/40 as you plan to move away from traditional employment and into either retirement, recreational employment (my goal with FIRE), or other life events where you plan to capitalize on the income potential of your portfolio. SCHD and VYM are really good investments that prioritize growth and income as well.
Being retired, we invest in a 60/40 split stock and bonds with international exposure in both. We also use Treasury Direct for I-Bonds and T-Bills, we just started in that investment type..
Good stuff. For me, a low 30s investor, I'm overwhelmingly in stocks, mainly through the VTI/FSKAX, FXAIX, and VXUS/FTIHX funds in my multiple investment/work retirement accounts, and then I held onto some individual stocks I bought last year thanks to an inheritance windfall. I also plan to buy more I Bonds as a fixed income asset, and precious metals to me are a nice collectible hedge.
It is embarrassing when people give advice based on the short term and call it investing. I am 75 or so. The money I invested when I was 35, I spent 30 years latter when I was 65. The money I invested when I was 36, I spent when I was 66. The money I invested this year, someone will spend 30 years from now when I would be 105. The least that the S&P 500 has returned over 30 years is a bit less than 10% annualized. There is no need to diversify beyond stocks. There is a need to encourage investors to look at a long time frame.
When I see a big drop in my investments like in 2022 where the drop was over $1M at one point, I just look at the graphs over a much longer period of time. Then I see how my investments have nearly tripled since I retired in 2013. No problem!
@@ErinTalksMoneymy observation is that there has only been two periods when stocks have been lower at the end of any five year period than it began, the Great Depression and the Great Recession. I’m setting aside 5 years of cash and anytime stocks go down I’ll switch to the cash accounts leaving stocks to recover.
Totally distracted when the pup comes into the vid. So cute! Now, back to serious investing, have you looked at TAA investing strategies? That's my strategy.
I’m 45 and have been investing into my 401k since 30. Right now I’m following Dave Ramseys approach. I do growth funds. 25% small cap, 25 mid cap, 25 large cap, and 25 international. Seems to be working well for me.
The last 20 years prior to the 1 year retirement window I was 100% stock/equity. Retiring in 2017 this ended up almost perfect. I consider it mostly lucky. Having a Federal Pension made it easier to accept risk.
A retiree can easily tap into home equity with the use of a reverse mortgage Example 1mill net worth consisting of a 500k portfolio and a 500k home. Income needs from portfolio is 30k (6% of the portfolio). By utilizing the reverse mortgage the 500k home will support approx 13k annually for life so now your portfolio has to provide the remaining 17k . This strategy just reduced the withdrawal rate from 6% to 3.4%. This also means that you can tilt your portfolio a bit more aggressive towards equitys (80/20) and the growth on the portfolio will more than make up for the cost of the reverse mortgage. The one main caveat to this strategy is that you have to make sure that this is the last home that you would reside in.
You want income for the future? Then build your portfolio that way. Buy dividend ETFs. Income is based on number of shares not the value of each share. I would lose sleep thinking I would run out of money in retirement. So to alleviate that worry I’m building a dividend growth focused portfolio. I’m hoping more people will follow this and never have to sell 1 share of anything they own.
One caveat on the 60/40 portfolio that some financial advisors will tell you is that this is not the recommended ratio for those who have a pension plan or in those cases where both spouses have a pension plan. A pension plan is in effect a huge giant bond that pays you a monthly income for life with a COLA. You should factor this into your ratio, otherwise, you will be much more weighted in bonds than you realize. In my situation, both my spouse and I, each have a pension + social security one day, so we've elected to pass on bonds.
Thanks for the video. A better question to ask regarding volatility is what did you do when the market was down - you should also ask what did you do when the market was setting new highs (I know, I'm weird but I was actually more nervous when it was setting new highs than I was at the most recent lows). I've never been much of a bond guy esp in a low rate environment (people don't really say it but rates are barely above average now). Yes, you can get some descent rates for up to a year after that, I have to ask if they are really worth it. For me, I've started using ETFs/funds focused on dividend growth stocks rather than bonds but also tend to hold a little more cash/CDs.
We've been invested 60/40 in our retirement accounts (403b's). As retirees, we also receive pensions and SS. Been moving slowly toward shore term t-bills and CDs because of the favorable interest rates. Am getting concerned about the financial chatter regarding recession, so perhaps it's time to rebalance those 403b's.
I'm on the stock market daily and don't believe we will have a recession. The U.S. is surpassing all G7 nations in GDP and has a far lower inflation rate.
Last year I was concerned, and although I kept dollar cost averaging, it did make me consider a 60/40 split as being a pretty good option rather than my historical 70/30 split. Yes, inflation reared its ugly head so even in my daily budget I had to revise my numbers which effects my long-term goals and makes the plan less predictable. I'm still optimistic about the long term, as in greater than five years.
CDs and new high yield savings accts pay back more than some dividend stocks so there;s the whole keeping your short term money in those and growing it while also adding to your stock/etf/bond/etc portfolio.
I watched an interesting financial video about diversification mix in retirement. Monte Carlo simulation showed that starting with a 40/60 mix and the increasing stock holdings to 80/20 provided the best results in 1000 simulations. I know that you concentrate about the starting area of financial investing. I would love to see something with you talking about how things change as you go from working to retired with a portfolio.
Hi I'm 100% stocks right now. 7-10 years from retirement I think I'll follow Warren Buffett advise and go 90% s&p500 and 10% in a low cost gold etf. I know Warren advise is 10% in short term treasuries not go!d but I just can't touch bonds (personal reasons). I could take my annual 4% out of the stock portion and when we go into recession then take it from the gold portion. What do you guys think?
I agree. How about blue chip low volatility dividend stocks to replace the bonds? So if the market does take a nose dive, you are building income for the future.
Thanks for this. I've not been investing long, and have managed to get up to 20% of my portfolio into stocks. 10% in gold which feels high after watching your video. I want to increase stocks but it all feels a little too overvalued to rebalance right now. To wait or not to wait....
Tough call. I don't mind living on the edge, so we're 100% in on stocks. Assuming social security is still a thing we should at least survive. If things go wrong then I'll just have to get a job or find a cardboard box and a spot under the bridge. Worst case scenario I buy a ski mask.😅 I'm hoping it never comes to that, hence the reason we are doing everything we can today.
If you watch any of my other videos, you might come to learn that I am a firm believer in investing in the stock market. I like index funds. But always make sure to do what feels right for you, and do your own research.
I liked the video, I liked the content... just wish you would have spoken more about diversification across Asset Classes and not focused on just the US stock/Corporate Bond Market that are not part of the Nasdaq/S&P.. ... Real Estate even if it is an ETF, Commodities (gold, silver, pork bellies, Energy ETF or even owning part of a pipeline), owning a Small businesses (vending machines, taco trucks)( or even pool to have a franchise)... things like Cash equals (CDs at 6%!), government treasury/ municipal bonds (I had I-bonds producing over 12% for a year)... One can diversify inside any of the asset classes (single family, apartments, commercial real estate and further segments into that) Collectibles (comic books, baseball cards, fine art) but the point is it is asset class diversification first in my opinion and at some point what should be understood to last the test of time...
2:23 Worst year [1931] / Best Year [1933] I'm looking at a $100 figure (a fair amount for the common person in 1931) and then reducing that by 26.6% = $73.40 and lacking data for the interim I then increased that amount by the 1933 best year at 36.7% and I end up with $100.34. So the person's money has been tied up for about 3 years to net $0.34 ? Coming out of this bear market I have noticed the 1 Yr. average between my 17 funds looks like 23% but my portfolio is still lagging a bit behind the Nov 15, 2021 closing.
That’s a lot of numbers and figures… but I noticed your last sentence. I, too, haven’t gotten back to my November 2021 highs, and that’s with at least 18+ months of contributions! It’s depressing.
@@brandon8531 Another perspective: Your contributions have been buying you more shares @ a better price for last 18mths. How many more shares do you now own than 18mths ago? Even though they are priced lower, they will recover, and your balances will leap. That's why DCA works. Starting 20yrs ago, I had a come to Jesus moment and believed what Jack Bogle was telling me about DCA into low cost Indexes. Had nearly 7yrs. of pouring every spare dollar into Vanguard Indexes, while watching balances barely grow. Sometimes dropping! I called it "pouring money down a rathole". It was depressing. But for some reason, I had faith in Bogle. Even though I was ignorant of what was happening, it was the single smartest thing I have ever done. I amassed a lot of shares (at very low prices) during those years. The last decade has been rewarding. My returns exceed the amount I invested. DCA works, if you are patient. I was past 50 before I started investing. Never made over $30K income. It changed my life. Good luck.
I rather wish I had thought less about portfolio split back in the beginning (for me, circa 2011) and just gone most aggressive (low cost equities ETF and not put much if anything to bonds or cash equivalents). Well hind sight is pre-2020. The 2010s were great.
With MM funds paying 5% now, this gives you the same or better yield as bond funds with no interest rate risk. The Fed will keep raising rates, which will drive the bond prices lower, and give your cash a high yield. I would argue having no bonds now with cash acting as your bonds, might be the way to go in a rising interest rate environment. Same nice yield and less risk.
I’m a huge fan of money market funds, and Tbills and CDs right now, I think they are a great place to park cash. I’ve made a whole bunch a Videos on them too 😊
100% stocks here. VT and chill😂We’re still 15 years out from retirement and should get a hefty pension so won’t really need much from our portfolio so our risk capacity and tolerance is much higher.
I'm 32 amd I'm at 100% stocks, with it spread out over a dozen or so companies. I also have some in a S&P500 index fund. Averaged 18% over about 12 years (pre tax figures). At one point I was negative for my lifetime average return and at the max I was about 25%. I figure why not swing for the fences? If it goes well, I can retire a few years earlier. If not, it shouldn't be too bad.
Sure wish I knew more about investing when I was younger. Unfortunately many are like me, start really learning about it when you have lost your time to grow years. I least I contributed to 401k all these years. Of course, it wasn't so easy to invest 30 years ago as it is now.
I've got a better plan than either 60/40 or 80/20 equity/bond split. The first 40% should be in CDs/GICs, up to the maximum FDIC/CDIC insurable amount. The spread difference is within a few basis points between unsecured bonds and treasury-backed instruments, so why not take the free insurance? Only after you've exceeded the insurable limit should bonds be included in a portfolio. I realize technically bonds can grow higher than their initial purchase cost, but that's unlikely nowadays. You tend to draw them down when the markets are dicey.
The market will go up and down and that's just the way it is. We could retire during a time that the market is down. So we have to make sure we can survive for a few years if the market experiences a 40% crash right when we retire.
The down market last year did not change my DCA at all; if my market portfolio goes down to zero, it would not affect my lifestyle one bit because I have adequate income to cover my expenses. Plus, I'm completely debt-free.
I have 40% in non income real estate, 40% in stocks (88%) which is Tesla, and 20% in cash. The banks want me to put the 20% in CDs or Annuity. May be wrong but at 70, I have enough invested and don't need to have all my cash tied up.
hii erine india is only top performing economy with zero threat of recession and we are expecting some kind of kool performance from our financial portfolio.
In my opinion, they stink! I would put a much smaller portion in int'l (say 5%) and the rest in US stock indexes like S&P500. Just my thoughts after 25+ years investing.
Personally, I’m all for aggressive growth and accumulating. 100% stocks. Will diversify a bit more as I reach retirement, but have another 25-30 years to go
Nice, but I would caution there is a mathematical efect to volativity. Any drop would cause a need for a HUGE return the next year(s) to compensate for the drop. Bonds, historically, have been the mitigator of losses. So you get this “tortoise vs the hare” effect. Where the steady slow growth of a stock/bond mix (tortoise) actually ends up outpacing 100% stock (hare) over time. I think most advisors dont quit understand or undersell volativity effects. Good luck on your investments!
I'm currently at 80% stocks, 10% bonds, and 10% alternatives (real estate, securities, commodities, energy, etc) I appreciate the suggestion of looking at your response to 2022. I was still buying in 2022. It didn't really bother me all that much. I would anticipate those kind of drops might bother me more when I'm closer to retirement, but I would also anticipate I will probably decrease my stock allocation at that point. I would also say that the traditional advice I got earlier in my life was to just put money in your retirement account and don't look at it. I'm in my early 40s now and while that worked just fine, I somewhat regret listening to that advice. I've been more actively involved since around 2019 and I find now that I understand more, I feel more comfortable with the ups and downs. I also think I might have done some things differently. The only thing that I would have done that would have made a significant difference, though, is to start earlier and contribute more.
Absolutely! 2022 didn’t really bother me all that much either being that I’m in my mid-30s. And I’m not really going to need my investments for several decades. However if I were in my 60s or in my 70s, my attitude very well may have been very different.
@@ErinTalksMoney I'll be 69 in six months and I didn't care. My wife doesn't understand how I can not be concerned. I spent most of my life not being concerned about money. I really didn't care. I became interested only since she came into my life. I am now interested because it is constantly changing but it would have to go to near $0.00 to get me concerned. I guess riding into turns at 130 MPH on motorcycles for a good portion of my life has trained me to just not be too concerned about monetary risks. 😜
I don’t have much use for broadly comparing what “stocks” have done vs what “bonds” have done. I want to see actual backtested portfolios. If I do an 80% (VTI), 20% (BND) since December 2011 to Dec. 2023, $10,000 would have turned into $35,944. The expense ratio of 0.03%. Worst year -18.23% and best 26.34%. Average return of 11.25% Same $10,000 over the same time period, but with 50% (XLK), 25% (SCHG), 25% (SCHD). I would have $70,220. Expense ratio of 0.07%. Worst year -22.62% and best was 41.68%. Average return of 17.64% As of the back test’s ending date, the portfolio with bonds still hadn’t recovered to its peak in December 2021. The all stock portfolio had the same peak date, but had recovered by July 2023, and grown by an extra ~$5,000 by the end of the back test.
In order to determnine what percentage or your portfolio should be fixed income/ bonds, you need to evaluate the potential for interest rates to go up or down,. Also you need to determine if ytou are buying individual bonds or bond funds. Personally, as bond funds, never mature, I find them much higher risk compared to single securities. The problem of 2022, was that rates rose substantially, causing NAV values to dramatically fall. To be honest, I would make a portfolio of 70% equitries. 20% real estate, and 10% in short term instruments. Such as money markets, and if needing income, covered call option funds. (Only for those needing immeadiate monthlyu cash.) Notice what percentage of mine would be in bonds. (0%)
You make great points here, there are far better ways and more comprehensive ways to diversify than simply stocks and bonds. This video is strictly based on the information that Vanguard had presented.
I have 97% of my retirement accounts in TSLA lol. My conviction is so high that it is far less risk to me as I know everything there is about this company as to buying 100 different stocks that I don't know as much on.
I’m 100% stock and plan to be until I’m at least in my late-50’s. I recall you may have even posted videos proving stocks historically win out in the long term 10 out of 10 times…..even if you bought at all time highs! For those with time on their side, I disagree with labelling the all-stock portfolio as the “eggs all in one basket” approach. An informed investor should have plenty of “safe assets” no matter what. With time a paid off house, savings account, social security, etc. It should be a no brainer for anyone under 50 to be 100% stocks. Fifteen years is more than enough time to recover any losses. If it takes more than 15 years, it means civilization has collapsed and you’re screwed anyway. Twenty years ago, I remember starting my 401k and the planner wanting me to put 20% in bonds. Bad advice and I have no idea why financial planners keep pushing bond portfolios on young investors.
"eggs all in one basket" to me implies mostly just equities from one company. Even when the stock indices are down, there are individual stocks that are down and visa verse. The goal is to be in the equities you believe in.
Indian stock exchange index, Nifty50 gives 12%. We have more inflation at 5 to 6%. That should also be taken into consideration though. Banks here give 7% on Fixed deposits for 10 years tenure. Banks like HDFC which are really big banks (top 5 in the world after the upcoming merger). But inflation is the issue. Also, Midcap index gives 14 to 15%.
Sounds like investing still allows you to grow your wealth and beat inflation! That’s great. We are still dealing with pretty high inflation here in the states
I really don't get why so many keep suggesting the 60-40 portfolio. Where is the historical data or research to suggest that the 60-40 portfolio is better for fixed (inflation adjusted) withdrawals? I pulled data from the S&P 500, treasuries and bonds from 1928 to 2023. I tested a retirement start date every month from then until now with fixed withdrawals (adjusted for inflation). 100% S&P 500 did not fail below a 2.75% initial withdrawal rate. 85-15 S&P 500 / BAA rated bonds survived below 3.05%. Any additional amount of bonds reduced the safe withdrawal rate. And, if you opted for a simple swing-trading strategy, buying S&P 500 on the open when the market closed above the 90-day moving average and selling (move into short term treasuries / money markets) on the open when it closed below the 90-day moving average (wait a day if your trade would be a good faith violation), the safe withdrawal rate boosted to 4.14% (with a 0.1% inefficiency in both directions vs the actual market opens). Granted, that would only be useful in an IRA (Around a dozen trades per year, so everything is short term). But if achieving an 11% boost over 100% stocks in long-term performance is great, achieving a 51% boost is even better. Note: I pulled and simulated data on a daily basis, but only tested monthly start dates with monthly withdrawals. That's about 680,000 calculations per iteration, so I think I'm being rigorous enough. In hind-sight, obviously the worst time to retire was basically the only analysis you needed to perform. In a shocking discovery that will surprise nobody, September 1929 was a bad month to retire.
Right now I'm doing 100% in stocks but I do have cash , and precious metal as an emergency. In the future as I get closer to retirement. I will probably do 40% stocks , and 60% bonds.
I am definitely on the side of a low market as a buying opportunity. Last year I was able to pick some real bargains in tech MSFT, APPL, TSLA, NVDA, etc. This year have been adding more T-Bills and bonds from Treasury Direct to take advantage of the high returns, safety, no fees, and no state and local taxes. I have largely moved away from the big managed funds because of their overhead. I am at retirement age and been investing since late teens/20s.
The power of diversification is not less return. If you allocate right, you can have a higher expected return with less risk. The best strategy is to use the efficient frontier with your assets, then select the allocation on the line that matches to the risk or expected return of the portfolio. The fact is that you could have the same return with less risk if you have a small percentage of bonds in your portfolio and rebalance and maintain to that allocation. The compounding effect of rebalancing is key. Rebalance to less risky when interest rates rise then rebalance to risky when interest rates drop. The goal of any department of treasury is that they lower rates to spur growth and raise rates when growth causes unhealthy inflation. So the big three assets that are impacted by growth are gold, growth stocks (NASDAQ, VUG, etc), and real estate. Those are the three main assets that everyone who want to grow wealth in the long term need to have. I don't like gold too much because it is rare. I have to go now.
@@WheresWaldo05 The efficient frontier is good for analysis and picking the right allocation can give you a higher expected return with less volatility verses another asset. For example, if you take TSLA, MRNA, ENPH, QQQ, and GLD and use the efficient frontier, and you look at the mean and SD of QQQ, you can then take the Z score and normal distribution to find the probability that the allocation will be greater than the QQQ. If that allocation has one that is significant enough then you have a high likelihood of a higher expected return. If not, then you add assets like NVDA to do so until you find one that has a high probability of beating the market. Over the same period. I won't go too in depth because most don't know statistics or applying them in a speculative fund but statistics can be very interesting and lucrative.
I put as much money as I could into the market last year, until late October, then put the majority into a HYSA (4.25% APY) and am still doing so. I expect another dip in the coming months and will take some cash and invest it. I speculate that the FED will pivot end of Q1 2024. If neither or either happens as I anticipate, then I will still invest more in the market at some point between now and then.
So you pulled out all your money during the low and missed all the upswing. It's an absolutely terrible idea unless you are a couple of years from retirement.
@@govinds5590 You have it backwards, the market "recovered" at the end of Oct, I nailed the downturn in spades. And I am less than 2 years from retirement.Also, I have NEVER pulled ANY money out of the market.
In evaluating one's tolerance to risk, should you not gauge how set you are on your retirement date? There have been 27 bear markets since 1929, but only 15 recessions during that time. As of now, the longest bear market occurred between 2000 and 2002 and lasted about 929 calendar days. Taking the past 12 bear markets into consideration, the average length of a bear market is about 14 months. Assuming your 65 has wiggle room of 1 to 3 years, I can't see backing off too early.
Moderately high risk tolerance here, at my age, Social Security (not claimed yet) will constitute my fixed income portion (I value it like an annuity with a 3% yield) and the rest is invested in dividend growth stocks and ETFs. I’m perfectly fine with this.
Loved it, verified what I had been doing - 100% stocks - for now Would recommend that on future videos you mention the advantages of dollar cost averaging for the long-term investor - where when the market goes down in value you are still doing well as you are now buying more due to discounted price
2018 through 2020 I saw 31%, 24%, and 21%. 2021 and 2022 were rough and I was down six figures. I did not panic through. Up over 12% year to date. In a position to let it ride 100% equities for now.
One day, a small child asked to pet my pup, and asked his name, and when I said peanut, he ran away screaming. I’m allergic to peanuts. It was hilarious.
Curious on a 90/10 ….when i am close to the end , my glide path to 80/20…. Now this is for my portfolio but I think sometimes people don’t think of cash reserves today cash reserves are low just because it’s just my emergency fund once I get to glidepath 80/20 I expect to have 2 to 3 years of cash expenses. Therefore I don’t need to touch my portfolio for two years. I think this last year has proven that this would actually be a sound way of handling. As if I pull money out in 2020 I would be able to lower my expenses try to ride out longer to not touch my portfolio maybe have a part-time job until the economy recovers.
I think you make great points here. I did a video on the three buckets strategy to retirement, and it addresses a similar concept to what you presented here. And I think it’s a great retirement plan.
Bonds are debt instruments, not producers of value. They are also not as profitable as equities. I don't own a single bond. I've tried them several times... my index mutual funds, monthly dividend ETFs, and individual dividend aristocrat stock fund do very well and don't need any kind of balancing against something like bonds. BTW, you like everyone else talk about risk without ever defining it. It's used more as a scare tactic than anything else. If you accept the fact that the market breathes, goes up and down, and you will see red and green often... well it makes things easier to think about. I do small adjustments, but buy a lot of the time and very rarely sell. You might want to do a video on using an investment account as a little bank, with investments set to "deposit to core" to offset paying of regular bills. You can get check writing and auto drafts on most brokerage accounts. I do this very successfully and but both save and make money this way with my household account.
I tried day trading and lost $7k in 2020, 2021 and 2022. While this was happening, my real estate investments were appreciating by that much per week. Too bad house prices make it a closed investment category now. That should help stocks eventually, but fixed returns are nearing 5% so I choose that risk free option over stocks today. My problem with stocks is that AI is in control and I'm not smart enough to gamble against it.
@@lancenickles9818 It’s not a precise math, but it’ll suffice. Think of it like this. You buy a 10-year bond yielding 2% per year for $100.00. So in 10 years you’ll get your $100.00 back + you recieved $20.00 (before taxes). So, all in all, you now have $120.00. That’s the total amount you’ll recieve. In other words, you recieve 120% of your original investment. Now, imagine that the very next day the yield on 10-year goes to 4%. So anyone who pays $100.00 for the newly issued bond with 4% yield will recieve $40.00, or in total $140.00, in other words you’ll recieve 140% of your original investment. Now, let’s say you now want to buy the 4% yielding bond, so you want to sell the one you have. But who would pay you $100.00 for a 2% yielding bond? Everyone wants 4%. So, the future $120.00 ($100.00 principal + $20.00 worth of yield) now has to represent the same 140%. So 120 divided by 1.4 (or 120 divided by 140 times 100) = $85.7142, let’s just say $85.21. So, your bond needs to decline 14.79% in value in order to compensate for that difference in yield.
@lancenickles9818 Say if you bought a bond for $100 three years ago that paid you 2%, but now a similar bond can be bought for $100 and 5%. If you never sell the bond, you still get your 2% per year - that part isn't "going negative". But if you had to sell it to someone else in the new market conditions, they would expect to get 5% on their bond. To do this, they need you to lower your asking price below $100. But when it comes to bond funds or bond ETFs, they're traded daily, so even if you hold the fund, someone is selling that fund at a lower price to meet buyer demand. That lower price shows up in your 401k/IRA/brokerage account as an unrealized loss. But if interest rates are going to go down, then bond sellers can get higher prices. It works both ways.
I havent gone in depth on my intended withdrawal strategy yet because I'm still a bit far from retirement, but, my goal is a ~1m -1.25m and I am thinking at that time I will want 80k in inflation protected securities because that is 730 days of living investments and the longest bear market in history was 630 days. So, I'm thinking when I'm deciding where to liquidate from I'll just ask myself, "Is this a bear market?" and then pull from the bonds until stocks recover, and then replace the bond portion of my portfolio. Not sure how an analysis works on this, but I'm basically all stocks until I hit my retirement goal (less a 6 month emergency fund in Ibonds).
I’ve been retired 1.5 years. At retirement I switched to a 60/40 portfolio. I’m using 3 different Vanguard Mutual funds. I had been in a target date fund. My portfolio was down last year, of course. My draw down was much less than the market. Plus, my dividends almost covers my additional expenses. I’m sleeping well at night. Thanks for your positive out look. I like it better than all the doom and gloom out there.
Right before retirement you are suppose to switch from risk to all non-risk in your profolio. 100%. I sure wish financing was a mandated class in high school so people could learn the very basics of investing.
@@WheresWaldo05 I don’t know any financial planner that recommends that. The 4% rule was based on at least a 50/50 portfolio and up to a 70/30. If you wanted your money to last at least 30 years. Where would you put your money that was risk free? There’s even a risk for putting it under your mattress. I’m confident in my plan.
Guaranteed lifetime income annuity that also has a return-of-premium feature to heirs.
I have a dividend growth income account on top of my 401k, roth ira and hsa. So i won't be touching my 401k really. Especially now that the required age for RMD's (required minimum distributions) will be age 75 once i am retired. New age switch starts in 2033. I will be living off earned dividends yearly and my account dividend growth rate on average exceeds inflation comfortably. Historical inflation is 2-3% over the last 100 years. My dividends currently grow 5-6% year to year. This strategy makes selling stocks and stock share price appreciation irrelevant. The stocks will never get sold. Unless a company cuts its dividend at which point i would sell and reallocate those funds to another stock. The account will transfer to a beneficiary upon death.
Warren buffet bought 1.3 billion worth of coca cola stock in 1988. 35 years later his yearly dividend payout after 35 years of drividend growth is 704 million. That is a 54% return on investment. So only one more year of a dividend payout and he will be paid back all of his money from first purchase just in this 2 year period. Plus all the other previous 30 some odd years of profit. And the payout gets larger every year as cocoa cola keeps raising their dividend.
Now you do not want to just put all your eggs into one basket. And he certaintly doesnt either. But the same thing can be done by investing into a 12-20 dividend paying stocks. And starting the earlier the age the better.
@@WheresWaldo05 none of what you listed is risk free. So, I don’t see the point of your original comment.
As always thanks Erin, you hit all the angles. I know my style is on the aggressive side I was 100% Stocks until age 57. I’m now 8020 I guess I kind of believe in the Steve Fisher theory but my financial advisor said that I had won the race. Why am I still running? It made me realize that I definitely need to get more conservative, so that when I stop working, I’ll be able to draw a salary off my investments every year not just when the markets doing well. I will most likely be 7030 when I retire.
I have gotten more conservative as I’ve aged.
Which is probably a good thing.
Active investor for over 30 years - absolutely great videos for the beginner = I learned "ALL" your channel content on my OWN & NEVER used a financial advisor either! The Vanguard research on stock/bond split returns over 92-100 years = I found mid-way in my investment journey.
6:53 These are cons of diversification per se; they’re cons of *bonds*. Properly diversified stock portfolios (large cap, small cap, intl, emerging) are way more stable *and* grows faster than the standard 60/40 if that 60% is all in large-caps, which is what most people do.
As I enter my 3rd week of retirement, I have been using a somewhat modified three bucket strategy, which is more based on dollars than percentages. Bucket 1 contains cash, cd's, money market, etc, and bonds. It holds about 3 years of expenses. I currently have 4.5 years before I collect SS, at which time, the size of this bucket will drop considerably. Bucket 2 is high quality dividend stocks and ETF's. The dividends until now have been reinvested, but will now be used to replenish Bucket 1. Bucket 3 is strictly growth funds, which would only be used in extreme emergencies, and major expenditures, not accounted for in normal expenses. All financial calculators and financial people I've talked to says it will work well, and have plenty to leave for the kids, if desired. We shall see!!!!!
I love your bucket. It's safer.
Based in what you've described, the only thing I can say is drink plenty of water, get lots of rest, keep up your fitness, and enjoy life. You'll have enough money to last many years.😁
We're so tired of working. It feels like we are sailing on stormy seas. However, our next milestone is going to be a big one so I'm keeping my eyes on the prize.
I love this approach! And I sincerely hope that the McDonald’s robots are not asking you for any additional tips these days , they have to understand you’re a retired man now😉 I hope you’re having a wonderful retirement!
I am 66 and will retire in 1 year but will take SS when I turn 70.
My bucket strategy is very much like yours but I will have no bonds.
This is OK because my SS covers most of my spending and I will only be taking about 2% from my retirement saving.
@@ErinTalksMoney The kiosk that asked for tips was a McDonald's in Ohio that stopped at for breakfast whenever I traveled to Indiana for work. I don't need to do that anymore! Retirement has been GREAT so far! Big decisions ahead, like which golf club to join next year!!!!
I've had a 100% stock portfolio for 15 years and plan to continue this allocation until 3 years before I retire. This obviously is not for everyone, but I have an iron stomach when it comes to risk/volatility, so I'm not bothered at all by huge market drops because I see it as a fire sale and I just keep on dollar cost averaging. Again, I know it's not for everyone, but it has absolutely paid off for me. I am all about maximizing growth and history shows that this is the best way to do that. I will focus on cash accumulation during the last few years before I retire.
I also like having most of my money in stocks.
My plan is to use the bucket system
Bucket1 - 3 Years out of the market (cash, CD etc)
Bucket2 - 40% in dividend mutual funds (they are less volatile because they are value)
Bucket3 - The remainder in growth mutual funds.
This is the proper and correct way to invest before and during retirement. Anyone doing it any other way is wrong. That isnt opinion but mere fact. Ask any financial/investing expert.
So happy you made a video on this topic. Whenever I try to engage a new friend about investments I always start with what their investment mix is. I usually only get a blank stare back. Sad. Good info!
Retired two pensions, SSI, 80/20 split with years worth of income in T-bills, and money markets for emergencies. Totally debt-free. Money generated from stocks is just icing on the cake, not really needed but happy I have it.
I really like your suggestion of using 2022 and 2023 market results to evaluate our risk tolerance. Thank you for your video.
I think the best time to assess your risk tolerance is when things are not going so well. If you only ask yourself, what if questions when everything is going well, it’s easier to come across more confident than you actually are.
I've focused on saving early in my working career, but now in my early 60's am working towards a heavy dividend paying portfolio. I have enough dividends coming in how to live off of them completely. This is not 100% secure, but gives me options on how to support myself in my retired years.
For funds I need > 8 years from now portion 50% VTI and 50% VB, For funds I need 3 to 8 years from now PFF, JPST, Bond ladders. For stuff I need within two years plus emergency fund: Cash, CD's.
I think it makes sense to gravitate towards the 60/40 as you plan to move away from traditional employment and into either retirement, recreational employment (my goal with FIRE), or other life events where you plan to capitalize on the income potential of your portfolio. SCHD and VYM are really good investments that prioritize growth and income as well.
Being retired, we invest in a 60/40 split stock and bonds with international exposure in both. We also use Treasury Direct for I-Bonds and T-Bills, we just started in that investment type..
I do love t-bills 😊
Good stuff. For me, a low 30s investor, I'm overwhelmingly in stocks, mainly through the VTI/FSKAX, FXAIX, and VXUS/FTIHX funds in my multiple investment/work retirement accounts, and then I held onto some individual stocks I bought last year thanks to an inheritance windfall. I also plan to buy more I Bonds as a fixed income asset, and precious metals to me are a nice collectible hedge.
I'm retired and live on dividend income. Not touching the principle.
Awesome!
That’s my hope too
Hi Erin! Great video! Do you have one talking about how to split US vs. International stock funds? Thanks!
It is embarrassing when people give advice based on the short term and call it investing.
I am 75 or so. The money I invested when I was 35, I spent 30 years latter when I was 65. The money I invested when I was 36, I spent when I was 66. The money I invested this year, someone will spend 30 years from now when I would be 105. The least that the S&P 500 has returned over 30 years is a bit less than 10% annualized. There is no need to diversify beyond stocks.
There is a need to encourage investors to look at a long time frame.
When I see a big drop in my investments like in 2022 where the drop was over $1M at one point, I just look at the graphs over a much longer period of time. Then I see how my investments have nearly tripled since I retired in 2013. No problem!
That’s exactly what I do as well, I just zoom out and look at it over the long term. And that always gives me confidence.
@@ErinTalksMoneymy observation is that there has only been two periods when stocks have been lower at the end of any five year period than it began, the Great Depression and the Great Recession. I’m setting aside 5 years of cash and anytime stocks go down I’ll switch to the cash accounts leaving stocks to recover.
Yeah! 100% divvy stocks all the way!! Woohoo!
Totally distracted when the pup comes into the vid. So cute!
Now, back to serious investing, have you looked at TAA investing strategies? That's my strategy.
Oh, Peanut knows he’s adorable, and he uses it to get his way all day every day
I have not looked into TAA investing strategies. I’ll do some searching.
Thank you Erin for another great video.
Thanks for watching Chris!
I’m 45 and have been investing into my 401k since 30. Right now I’m following Dave Ramseys approach. I do growth funds. 25% small cap, 25 mid cap, 25 large cap, and 25 international. Seems to be working well for me.
The last 20 years prior to the 1 year retirement window I was 100% stock/equity. Retiring in 2017 this ended up almost perfect. I consider it mostly lucky. Having a Federal Pension made it easier to accept risk.
100%! Having a solid income stream, absolutely affects your risk tolerance
A retiree can easily tap into home equity with the use of a reverse mortgage
Example
1mill net worth consisting of a 500k portfolio and a 500k home.
Income needs from portfolio is 30k (6% of the portfolio).
By utilizing the reverse mortgage the 500k home will support approx 13k annually for life so now your portfolio has to provide the remaining 17k .
This strategy just reduced the withdrawal rate from 6% to 3.4%.
This also means that you can tilt your portfolio a bit more aggressive towards equitys (80/20) and the growth on the portfolio will more than make up for the cost of the reverse mortgage.
The one main caveat to this strategy is that you have to make sure that this is the last home that you would reside in.
You want income for the future? Then build your portfolio that way. Buy dividend ETFs. Income is based on number of shares not the value of each share. I would lose sleep thinking I would run out of money in retirement. So to alleviate that worry I’m building a dividend growth focused portfolio. I’m hoping more people will follow this and never have to sell 1 share of anything they own.
What about REITS for diversification?
One caveat on the 60/40 portfolio that some financial advisors will tell you is that this is not the recommended ratio for those who have a pension plan or in those cases where both spouses have a pension plan. A pension plan is in effect a huge giant bond that pays you a monthly income for life with a COLA. You should factor this into your ratio, otherwise, you will be much more weighted in bonds than you realize. In my situation, both my spouse and I, each have a pension + social security one day, so we've elected to pass on bonds.
Peanut should make more video appearances!!
Going to need you to talk to him about that!
Thanks for the video. A better question to ask regarding volatility is what did you do when the market was down - you should also ask what did you do when the market was setting new highs (I know, I'm weird but I was actually more nervous when it was setting new highs than I was at the most recent lows). I've never been much of a bond guy esp in a low rate environment (people don't really say it but rates are barely above average now). Yes, you can get some descent rates for up to a year after that, I have to ask if they are really worth it. For me, I've started using ETFs/funds focused on dividend growth stocks rather than bonds but also tend to hold a little more cash/CDs.
We've been invested 60/40 in our retirement accounts (403b's). As retirees, we also receive pensions and SS. Been moving slowly toward shore term t-bills and CDs because of the favorable interest rates. Am getting concerned about the financial chatter regarding recession, so perhaps it's time to rebalance those 403b's.
I'm on the stock market daily and don't believe we will have a recession. The U.S. is surpassing all G7 nations in GDP and has a far lower inflation rate.
I was addicted to physical silver for a while. Iv been buying WU every week five shares at a time. 100 shares of O, 75 shares of IRM
We are retired with a 70/30, equity/fixed income portfolio and 2022 was a big yawn.
What was in the fixed income portion of your portfolio, if you don’t mind me asking?
Last year I was concerned, and although I kept dollar cost averaging, it did make me consider a 60/40 split as being a pretty good option rather than my historical 70/30 split. Yes, inflation reared its ugly head so even in my daily budget I had to revise my numbers which effects my long-term goals and makes the plan less predictable. I'm still optimistic about the long term, as in greater than five years.
I’m right there with you, I’m optimistic about the future
CDs and new high yield savings accts pay back more than some dividend stocks so there;s the whole keeping your short term money in those and growing it while also adding to your stock/etf/bond/etc portfolio.
I gave you THUMBS UP 👍 on this video for the dog
I love peanut ❤❤
Me too!! 😊
I watched an interesting financial video about diversification mix in retirement. Monte Carlo simulation showed that starting with a 40/60 mix and the increasing stock holdings to 80/20 provided the best results in 1000 simulations.
I know that you concentrate about the starting area of financial investing. I would love to see something with you talking about how things change as you go from working to retired with a portfolio.
Actually, doing retirement related videos are literally my favorite videos to do. I’ll have to add one of these videos to the roster.
Hi I'm 100% stocks right now. 7-10 years from retirement I think I'll follow Warren Buffett advise and go 90% s&p500 and 10% in a low cost gold etf. I know Warren advise is 10% in short term treasuries not go!d but I just can't touch bonds (personal reasons). I could take my annual 4% out of the stock portion and when we go into recession then take it from the gold portion.
What do you guys think?
😂 I had to do a double take when I read the 10% in gold etf - immediately I was like, warren hates gold 😂 apparently I just had to keep reading!
Good job lady 👍
Personally, I don't see the use in bonds. But that's just me.
Simple, because you're young and only lived through bull markets.
@@tiagoquental1029 wrong. I am 55 and have seen a few bear and bull markets. I still don't see bonds helping.
They are uncorrelated to the stock market, usually. Plus bond convexity makes them asymmetrical in your favor.
I agree. How about blue chip low volatility dividend stocks to replace the bonds? So if the market does take a nose dive, you are building income for the future.
Thanks for this. I've not been investing long, and have managed to get up to 20% of my portfolio into stocks. 10% in gold which feels high after watching your video. I want to increase stocks but it all feels a little too overvalued to rebalance right now. To wait or not to wait....
Tough call. I don't mind living on the edge, so we're 100% in on stocks. Assuming social security is still a thing we should at least survive. If things go wrong then I'll just have to get a job or find a cardboard box and a spot under the bridge. Worst case scenario I buy a ski mask.😅 I'm hoping it never comes to that, hence the reason we are doing everything we can today.
If you watch any of my other videos, you might come to learn that I am a firm believer in investing in the stock market. I like index funds. But always make sure to do what feels right for you, and do your own research.
I missed where you talked about the 12% portfolio. I am assuming this is 88% stocks and 12% bonds?
I liked the video, I liked the content... just wish you would have spoken more about diversification across Asset Classes and not focused on just the US stock/Corporate Bond Market that are not part of the Nasdaq/S&P.. ... Real Estate even if it is an ETF, Commodities (gold, silver, pork bellies, Energy ETF or even owning part of a pipeline), owning a Small businesses (vending machines, taco trucks)( or even pool to have a franchise)... things like Cash equals (CDs at 6%!), government treasury/ municipal bonds (I had I-bonds producing over 12% for a year)... One can diversify inside any of the asset classes (single family, apartments, commercial real estate and further segments into that) Collectibles (comic books, baseball cards, fine art) but the point is it is asset class diversification first in my opinion and at some point what should be understood to last the test of time...
A great suggestion for another video 😊 thanks!
2:23 Worst year [1931] / Best Year [1933] I'm looking at a $100 figure (a fair amount for the common person in 1931) and then reducing that by 26.6% = $73.40 and lacking data for the interim I then increased that amount by the 1933 best year at 36.7% and I end up with $100.34. So the person's money has been tied up for about 3 years to net $0.34 ? Coming out of this bear market I have noticed the 1 Yr. average between my 17 funds looks like 23% but my portfolio is still lagging a bit behind the Nov 15, 2021 closing.
That’s a lot of numbers and figures… but I noticed your last sentence. I, too, haven’t gotten back to my November 2021 highs, and that’s with at least 18+ months of contributions! It’s depressing.
@@brandon8531 Another perspective: Your contributions have been buying you more shares @ a better price for last 18mths. How many more shares do you now own than 18mths ago? Even though they are priced lower, they will recover, and your balances will leap. That's why DCA works. Starting 20yrs ago, I had a come to Jesus moment and believed what Jack Bogle was telling me about DCA into low cost Indexes. Had nearly 7yrs. of pouring every spare dollar into Vanguard Indexes, while watching balances barely grow. Sometimes dropping! I called it "pouring money down a rathole". It was depressing. But for some reason, I had faith in Bogle. Even though I was ignorant of what was happening, it was the single smartest thing I have ever done. I amassed a lot of shares (at very low prices) during those years. The last decade has been rewarding. My returns exceed the amount I invested. DCA works, if you are patient. I was past 50 before I started investing. Never made over $30K income. It changed my life. Good luck.
I rather wish I had thought less about portfolio split back in the beginning (for me, circa 2011) and just gone most aggressive (low cost equities ETF and not put much if anything to bonds or cash equivalents). Well hind sight is pre-2020. The 2010s were great.
With MM funds paying 5% now, this gives you the same or better yield as bond funds with no interest rate risk. The Fed will keep raising rates, which will drive the bond prices lower, and give your cash a high yield. I would argue having no bonds now with cash acting as your bonds, might be the way to go in a rising interest rate environment. Same nice yield and less risk.
I’m a huge fan of money market funds, and Tbills and CDs right now, I think they are a great place to park cash. I’ve made a whole bunch a Videos on them too 😊
100% stocks here. VT and chill😂We’re still 15 years out from retirement and should get a hefty pension so won’t really need much from our portfolio so our risk capacity and tolerance is much higher.
I did the 60/40 and used AGG for bonds but it tanked just like stocks. I think I should buy individual bond not a bond EFT?
Peanut is so cute! He reminds me so much of our dog (Stan). Our dog is Pomeranian-Bichon. What breed is Peanut?
Peanut is a yorkie - he’s just a giant yorkie 😂 I was told he’d be about 6 pounds - he grew to 13!
@@ErinTalksMoney See what good food and good lovin' does for a puppy.
I'm 32 amd I'm at 100% stocks, with it spread out over a dozen or so companies. I also have some in a S&P500 index fund. Averaged 18% over about 12 years (pre tax figures). At one point I was negative for my lifetime average return and at the max I was about 25%.
I figure why not swing for the fences? If it goes well, I can retire a few years earlier. If not, it shouldn't be too bad.
Sure wish I knew more about investing when I was younger. Unfortunately many are like me, start really learning about it when you have lost your time to grow years. I least I contributed to 401k all these years. Of course, it wasn't so easy to invest 30 years ago as it is now.
35k subscribers and growing….😊
I was able to grab a Screenshot right when it hit 35,000 - I always try to grab a screenshot on those solid numbers. And I save them all. 😊
I've got a better plan than either 60/40 or 80/20 equity/bond split. The first 40% should be in CDs/GICs, up to the maximum FDIC/CDIC insurable amount. The spread difference is within a few basis points between unsecured bonds and treasury-backed instruments, so why not take the free insurance? Only after you've exceeded the insurable limit should bonds be included in a portfolio. I realize technically bonds can grow higher than their initial purchase cost, but that's unlikely nowadays. You tend to draw them down when the markets are dicey.
Last year was nothing compared to 2008-2009. The DOW went from ~13806 to ~7278 (47%). Last year was ~36338 to ~28725 (21%).
The market will go up and down and that's just the way it is. We could retire during a time that the market is down. So we have to make sure we can survive for a few years if the market experiences a 40% crash right when we retire.
60/40
The down market last year did not change my DCA at all; if my market portfolio goes down to zero, it would not affect my lifestyle one bit because I have adequate income to cover my expenses. Plus, I'm completely debt-free.
Congrats on being debt free, that’s awesome!!
I have 40% in non income real estate, 40% in stocks (88%) which is Tesla, and 20% in cash. The banks want me to put the 20% in CDs or Annuity. May be wrong but at 70, I have enough invested and don't need to have all my cash tied up.
hii erine india is only top performing economy with zero threat of recession and we are expecting some kind of kool performance from our financial portfolio.
How Erin I was checking 2050 target fund. There is 35% intl stocks. What can you say about intl stocks
In my opinion, they stink! I would put a much smaller portion in int'l (say 5%) and the rest in US stock indexes like S&P500. Just my thoughts after 25+ years investing.
Personally, I’m all for aggressive growth and accumulating. 100% stocks. Will diversify a bit more as I reach retirement, but have another 25-30 years to go
As of now our plan is 100% stocks, even in retirement. Outside of that we hope we'll figure out some side hustle before then.
I agree. If you are not within 7-10 years of retirement, I have no idea why anyone would hold bonds long term.
Nice, but I would caution there is a mathematical efect to volativity. Any drop would cause a need for a HUGE return the next year(s) to compensate for the drop. Bonds, historically, have been the mitigator of losses. So you get this “tortoise vs the hare” effect. Where the steady slow growth of a stock/bond mix (tortoise) actually ends up outpacing 100% stock (hare) over time. I think most advisors dont quit understand or undersell volativity effects. Good luck on your investments!
I'm currently at 80% stocks, 10% bonds, and 10% alternatives (real estate, securities, commodities, energy, etc) I appreciate the suggestion of looking at your response to 2022. I was still buying in 2022. It didn't really bother me all that much. I would anticipate those kind of drops might bother me more when I'm closer to retirement, but I would also anticipate I will probably decrease my stock allocation at that point. I would also say that the traditional advice I got earlier in my life was to just put money in your retirement account and don't look at it. I'm in my early 40s now and while that worked just fine, I somewhat regret listening to that advice. I've been more actively involved since around 2019 and I find now that I understand more, I feel more comfortable with the ups and downs. I also think I might have done some things differently. The only thing that I would have done that would have made a significant difference, though, is to start earlier and contribute more.
Absolutely! 2022 didn’t really bother me all that much either being that I’m in my mid-30s. And I’m not really going to need my investments for several decades. However if I were in my 60s or in my 70s, my attitude very well may have been very different.
@@ErinTalksMoney I'll be 69 in six months and I didn't care. My wife doesn't understand how I can not be concerned. I spent most of my life not being concerned about money. I really didn't care. I became interested only since she came into my life. I am now interested because it is constantly changing but it would have to go to near $0.00 to get me concerned.
I guess riding into turns at 130 MPH on motorcycles for a good portion of my life has trained me to just not be too concerned about monetary risks.
😜
60 domestic stocks 20 international stocks and 20 bonds.
I don’t have much use for broadly comparing what “stocks” have done vs what “bonds” have done. I want to see actual backtested portfolios.
If I do an 80% (VTI), 20% (BND) since December 2011 to Dec. 2023, $10,000 would have turned into $35,944. The expense ratio of 0.03%. Worst year -18.23% and best 26.34%. Average return of 11.25%
Same $10,000 over the same time period, but with 50% (XLK), 25% (SCHG), 25% (SCHD). I would have $70,220. Expense ratio of 0.07%. Worst year -22.62% and best was 41.68%. Average return of 17.64%
As of the back test’s ending date, the portfolio with bonds still hadn’t recovered to its peak in December 2021. The all stock portfolio had the same peak date, but had recovered by July 2023, and grown by an extra ~$5,000 by the end of the back test.
Bonds are trash long term unless you're at retirement and absolutely, positively need that protection.
Barring a depression, what was the average return since 1941? I noticed the best year and worse year were 1933 and 1931 respectively.
That's why target date portfolios exist
In order to determnine what percentage or your portfolio should be fixed income/ bonds, you need to evaluate the potential for interest rates to go up or down,. Also you need to determine if ytou are buying individual bonds or bond funds. Personally, as bond funds, never mature, I find them much higher risk compared to single securities. The problem of 2022, was that rates rose substantially, causing NAV values to dramatically fall. To be honest, I would make a portfolio of 70% equitries. 20% real estate, and 10% in short term instruments. Such as money markets, and if needing income, covered call option funds. (Only for those needing immeadiate monthlyu cash.) Notice what percentage of mine would be in bonds. (0%)
You make great points here, there are far better ways and more comprehensive ways to diversify than simply stocks and bonds. This video is strictly based on the information that Vanguard had presented.
Aww, you missed the opportunity of jsing the "diversify yo bonds" Dave Chappelle clip 😉
I have 97% of my retirement accounts in TSLA lol. My conviction is so high that it is far less risk to me as I know everything there is about this company as to buying 100 different stocks that I don't know as much on.
I’m 100% stock and plan to be until I’m at least in my late-50’s. I recall you may have even posted videos proving stocks historically win out in the long term 10 out of 10 times…..even if you bought at all time highs!
For those with time on their side, I disagree with labelling the all-stock portfolio as the “eggs all in one basket” approach. An informed investor should have plenty of “safe assets” no matter what. With time a paid off house, savings account, social security, etc. It should be a no brainer for anyone under 50 to be 100% stocks. Fifteen years is more than enough time to recover any losses. If it takes more than 15 years, it means civilization has collapsed and you’re screwed anyway.
Twenty years ago, I remember starting my 401k and the planner wanting me to put 20% in bonds. Bad advice and I have no idea why financial planners keep pushing bond portfolios on young investors.
"eggs all in one basket" to me implies mostly just equities from one company. Even when the stock indices are down, there are individual stocks that are down and visa verse. The goal is to be in the equities you believe in.
Do a video on DOGS OF THE DOW😊
Indian stock exchange index, Nifty50 gives 12%.
We have more inflation at 5 to 6%. That should also be taken into consideration though.
Banks here give 7% on Fixed deposits for 10 years tenure. Banks like HDFC which are really big banks (top 5 in the world after the upcoming merger). But inflation is the issue.
Also, Midcap index gives 14 to 15%.
Sounds like investing still allows you to grow your wealth and beat inflation! That’s great. We are still dealing with pretty high inflation here in the states
I really don't get why so many keep suggesting the 60-40 portfolio. Where is the historical data or research to suggest that the 60-40 portfolio is better for fixed (inflation adjusted) withdrawals? I pulled data from the S&P 500, treasuries and bonds from 1928 to 2023. I tested a retirement start date every month from then until now with fixed withdrawals (adjusted for inflation). 100% S&P 500 did not fail below a 2.75% initial withdrawal rate. 85-15 S&P 500 / BAA rated bonds survived below 3.05%. Any additional amount of bonds reduced the safe withdrawal rate.
And, if you opted for a simple swing-trading strategy, buying S&P 500 on the open when the market closed above the 90-day moving average and selling (move into short term treasuries / money markets) on the open when it closed below the 90-day moving average (wait a day if your trade would be a good faith violation), the safe withdrawal rate boosted to 4.14% (with a 0.1% inefficiency in both directions vs the actual market opens). Granted, that would only be useful in an IRA (Around a dozen trades per year, so everything is short term). But if achieving an 11% boost over 100% stocks in long-term performance is great, achieving a 51% boost is even better.
Note: I pulled and simulated data on a daily basis, but only tested monthly start dates with monthly withdrawals. That's about 680,000 calculations per iteration, so I think I'm being rigorous enough. In hind-sight, obviously the worst time to retire was basically the only analysis you needed to perform. In a shocking discovery that will surprise nobody, September 1929 was a bad month to retire.
Our plan is to have most of our income coming from our business. Just need to figure out what that business is.😅
Good luck! I’m sure you will come up with a great idea
Right now I'm doing 100% in stocks but I do have cash , and precious metal as an emergency. In the future as I get closer to retirement. I will probably do 40% stocks , and 60% bonds.
I'd suggest reversing that allocation.
@@TheFirstRealChewy Nah , I'm good.
As long as you have an investment plan that works for your life situation, you’re good
Will you please tell me where your gold is?
One strategy is 100% stocks up to the age of 30 and then add 1% bonds per year.
you are kidding me I retire for 3.5 years and you tells me investing is a long life journey :D
Hahaha
I am definitely on the side of a low market as a buying opportunity. Last year I was able to pick some real bargains in tech MSFT, APPL, TSLA, NVDA, etc. This year have been adding more T-Bills and bonds from Treasury Direct to take advantage of the high returns, safety, no fees, and no state and local taxes. I have largely moved away from the big managed funds because of their overhead. I am at retirement age and been investing since late teens/20s.
Know thyself: I have much more risk capacity than risk tolerance so I’ll continue investing conservatively and sleeping well.
One option is 100% stocks up to the age of 30 and then add 1% bonds a year.
My 780K dividend stocks portfolio stand the test of time but also give me $4025 monthly average in dividend 😅
The power of diversification is not less return. If you allocate right, you can have a higher expected return with less risk. The best strategy is to use the efficient frontier with your assets, then select the allocation on the line that matches to the risk or expected return of the portfolio. The fact is that you could have the same return with less risk if you have a small percentage of bonds in your portfolio and rebalance and maintain to that allocation. The compounding effect of rebalancing is key. Rebalance to less risky when interest rates rise then rebalance to risky when interest rates drop. The goal of any department of treasury is that they lower rates to spur growth and raise rates when growth causes unhealthy inflation. So the big three assets that are impacted by growth are gold, growth stocks (NASDAQ, VUG, etc), and real estate. Those are the three main assets that everyone who want to grow wealth in the long term need to have. I don't like gold too much because it is rare. I have to go now.
You won't have a higher return, the balance just won't be as volatile during bull or bear markets.
@@WheresWaldo05 The efficient frontier is good for analysis and picking the right allocation can give you a higher expected return with less volatility verses another asset. For example, if you take TSLA, MRNA, ENPH, QQQ, and GLD and use the efficient frontier, and you look at the mean and SD of QQQ, you can then take the Z score and normal distribution to find the probability that the allocation will be greater than the QQQ. If that allocation has one that is significant enough then you have a high likelihood of a higher expected return. If not, then you add assets like NVDA to do so until you find one that has a high probability of beating the market. Over the same period. I won't go too in depth because most don't know statistics or applying them in a speculative fund but statistics can be very interesting and lucrative.
I put as much money as I could into the market last year, until late October, then put the majority into a HYSA (4.25% APY) and am still doing so. I expect another dip in the coming months and will take some cash and invest it. I speculate that the FED will pivot end of Q1 2024. If neither or either happens as I anticipate, then I will still invest more in the market at some point between now and then.
Elections are coming up, they are going to want things to look good.
So you pulled out all your money during the low and missed all the upswing. It's an absolutely terrible idea unless you are a couple of years from retirement.
@@govinds5590 You have it backwards, the market "recovered" at the end of Oct, I nailed the downturn in spades. And I am less than 2 years from retirement.Also, I have NEVER pulled ANY money out of the market.
So far up 13% for the year. VTI, VOO, QQQ 80% and bonds 20%.
Will only need to pull 2% when retired at the end of the year. 2 SS checks and 2 pensions. Will let it grow for the next 10-20 yrs.
3% interest on portfolio is getting sweeter by the month
In evaluating one's tolerance to risk, should you not gauge how set you are on your retirement date? There have been 27 bear markets since 1929, but only 15 recessions during that time. As of now, the longest bear market occurred between 2000 and 2002 and lasted about 929 calendar days. Taking the past 12 bear markets into consideration, the average length of a bear market is about 14 months. Assuming your 65 has wiggle room of 1 to 3 years, I can't see backing off too early.
Moderately high risk tolerance here, at my age, Social Security (not claimed yet) will constitute my fixed income portion (I value it like an annuity with a 3% yield) and the rest is invested in dividend growth stocks and ETFs. I’m perfectly fine with this.
Sounds like a solid plan!
Loved it, verified what I had been doing - 100% stocks - for now
Would recommend that on future videos you mention the advantages of dollar cost averaging for the long-term investor - where when the market goes down in value you are still doing well as you are now buying more due to discounted price
2018 through 2020 I saw 31%, 24%, and 21%. 2021 and 2022 were rough and I was down six figures. I did not panic through. Up over 12% year to date. In a position to let it ride 100% equities for now.
If you can live on 4%, then even if you investment only matched inflation it should last 25 years.
Great attitude!
Nobody under 50 should be at 60/40
I'm allergic to peanuts! LOL
One day, a small child asked to pet my pup, and asked his name, and when I said peanut, he ran away screaming. I’m allergic to peanuts. It was hilarious.
Curious on a 90/10 ….when i am close to the end , my glide path to 80/20…. Now this is for my portfolio but I think sometimes people don’t think of cash reserves today cash reserves are low just because it’s just my emergency fund once I get to glidepath 80/20 I expect to have 2 to 3 years of cash expenses. Therefore I don’t need to touch my portfolio for two years. I think this last year has proven that this would actually be a sound way of handling. As if I pull money out in 2020 I would be able to lower my expenses try to ride out longer to not touch my portfolio maybe have a part-time job until the economy recovers.
I think you make great points here. I did a video on the three buckets strategy to retirement, and it addresses a similar concept to what you presented here. And I think it’s a great retirement plan.
a 2.5% difference in CAGR over 30 years is 2x the return. if you don't like what the prices are doing, turn off the screen.
Bonds are debt instruments, not producers of value. They are also not as profitable as equities. I don't own a single bond. I've tried them several times... my index mutual funds, monthly dividend ETFs, and individual dividend aristocrat stock fund do very well and don't need any kind of balancing against something like bonds.
BTW, you like everyone else talk about risk without ever defining it. It's used more as a scare tactic than anything else. If you accept the fact that the market breathes, goes up and down, and you will see red and green often... well it makes things easier to think about. I do small adjustments, but buy a lot of the time and very rarely sell.
You might want to do a video on using an investment account as a little bank, with investments set to "deposit to core" to offset paying of regular bills. You can get check writing and auto drafts on most brokerage accounts. I do this very successfully and but both save and make money this way with my household account.
Can you comment your opinion and research on the 50/50 portfolio?
I tried day trading and lost $7k in 2020, 2021 and 2022. While this was happening, my real estate investments were appreciating by that much per week. Too bad house prices make it a closed investment category now. That should help stocks eventually, but fixed returns are nearing 5% so I choose that risk free option over stocks today. My problem with stocks is that AI is in control and I'm not smart enough to gamble against it.
How do bond funds lose money? I don't know of any bonds that pay a negative return. If they did, nobody would buy them.
Bonds prices decline in value when interest rates rise.
Thanks, but they decline so much as to turn negative?
@@lancenickles9818 It’s not a precise math, but it’ll suffice.
Think of it like this.
You buy a 10-year bond yielding 2% per year for $100.00. So in 10 years you’ll get your $100.00 back + you recieved $20.00 (before taxes). So, all in all, you now have $120.00. That’s the total amount you’ll recieve. In other words, you recieve 120% of your original investment.
Now, imagine that the very next day the yield on 10-year goes to 4%. So anyone who pays $100.00 for the newly issued bond with 4% yield will recieve $40.00, or in total $140.00, in other words you’ll recieve 140% of your original investment.
Now, let’s say you now want to buy the 4% yielding bond, so you want to sell the one you have. But who would pay you $100.00 for a
2% yielding bond? Everyone wants 4%. So, the future $120.00 ($100.00 principal + $20.00 worth of yield) now has to represent the same 140%. So 120 divided by 1.4 (or 120 divided by 140 times 100) = $85.7142, let’s just say $85.21. So, your bond needs to decline 14.79% in value in order to compensate for that difference in yield.
@lancenickles9818 Say if you bought a bond for $100 three years ago that paid you 2%, but now a similar bond can be bought for $100 and 5%. If you never sell the bond, you still get your 2% per year - that part isn't "going negative". But if you had to sell it to someone else in the new market conditions, they would expect to get 5% on their bond. To do this, they need you to lower your asking price below $100.
But when it comes to bond funds or bond ETFs, they're traded daily, so even if you hold the fund, someone is selling that fund at a lower price to meet buyer demand. That lower price shows up in your 401k/IRA/brokerage account as an unrealized loss.
But if interest rates are going to go down, then bond sellers can get higher prices. It works both ways.
@@lancenickles9818 In 2022, the Total Bond Market ETF (BND) had a total return of -13.1% including reinvested dividends.
In my mid-30s, pretty much 100% in stocks with the exceptions of some t-bills and ibonds I brought recently.
I havent gone in depth on my intended withdrawal strategy yet because I'm still a bit far from retirement, but, my goal is a ~1m -1.25m and I am thinking at that time I will want 80k in inflation protected securities because that is 730 days of living investments and the longest bear market in history was 630 days. So, I'm thinking when I'm deciding where to liquidate from I'll just ask myself, "Is this a bear market?" and then pull from the bonds until stocks recover, and then replace the bond portion of my portfolio.
Not sure how an analysis works on this, but I'm basically all stocks until I hit my retirement goal (less a 6 month emergency fund in Ibonds).
There’s definitely online simulators that you can use for this!
Index funds are not real assets. You should be stock holder of good companies.