The market crash of 2008 saw my portfolio down 55%. I did nothing. Left my investments alone and continued to invest. Because I told myself it didn’t matter what my portfolio balance was in 2008. It was 2024 that mattered, my projected retirement date. Such an outlook rewarded me handsomely.
@@kevinseversonandhisvizslas8287 Money you plan to spend on "life" in the next few years probably should be invested somewhere other than stocks? Just an idea.....
@@kevinseversonandhisvizslas8287 I retired in Jan 2008, I tightened my belt, lived off the 3 years of cash I had as a buffer and didn't sell until the market came back. I did go back to work in Dec 2010 and worked for 3 more years. I stuffed the max into my 401K with catch up amounts too. I wish I had put more into my brokerage account and gone for the cheaper long term capital gains tax instead. I now have 72% in my 401K and IRA.
I Hit $12,590 k today. Thank you for all the knowledge and nuggets you had thrown my way over the last week .i started with 3k in last week 2024..... now i just hit $12,590
I like the term 'pillow test' you used for making individual decisions that help the investor sleep at night. That sums up many things, from retirement investing to whether to pay off the house early, etc. The math behind the decision vs the emotional toll of the decision, and finding a personal balance. Thanks
Biggest lesson i've learnt in 2024 in the stock market is that nobody knows what is going to happen next, so practice some humility and follow a strategy with a long term edge.
Uncertainty... it took me 5 years to stop trying to predict what bout to happen in market based on charts studying, cause you never know. not having an advisor guide me cost me 5 years of pain I learn to go we’re the market is wanting to go and keep it simple with discipline.
If I assume the promised tarriffs actually materialize, i predict a down 2025 and possibly even 2026. Tarriffs will increase inflation and other countries will reciprocate. If the promised tarriffs do not happen or are significantly less, we will probably do ok. I think this is the most likely scenario. As a retired couple, weI are still converting IRAs to roth and our roths have mostly dividend funds and I reinvest. My goal is to keep our income, including RMDs below the IRMAA level that impose a medicare surcharge. My emergency and living cash is in a MM account or a Treasury fund. I feel comfortable we have enough cash to wearher a downturn. I love watching your videos. They are easy to understand and are always timely for me. Thanks.
@@republicunited2183 none of the previous tariffs were nearly as bad as what has been threatened. There have been threats not only to countries we might consider enemies but to countries we consider friends and allies. Tariffs on the EU, tariffs on Canada and Mexico, tariffs in Japan, etc. We expect tariffs on China, but our friends and allies deserve discussion and negotiation, not threats. As I said in my comment, if the tariffs that have been promised happen, it will make previous tariffs look like a slap on the hand. Our economy can't continue to do well if we alienate or friends and allies. They will respond and then what do we get? We get an economy that loses its exports, and economy that costs more to import and an economy that will surely go into a recession.
I keep it very simple. 75% of year are positive. 3 out of 4 years are positive. I don’t like the 50% downsides so I hedge. The max temporarily down is 19.3% in 40 years. My recovery time in big downsides is 4 months. I can absolutely live with that.
Amazing video. I am one of the person she talked about, timing the market. I could not get in the down turns and I am still all cash 😂. Now I am changing my mind set and getting into the market by dollar cost averaging overtime. Another key item to remember for folks like me is to automate the process. My new brokerage can automatically buy ETFs for me on weekly basis, hence disconnecting me from the process and trying not to time the market. This also help when the market is high and we are scared what if I put all my money in and the market drops. This psychology has kept me out of the market for 15 years 😂.
Erin, I love your videos. I've shared you with several of my family members and always stay till the end to watch your bloopers. Keep up the good work.
Any opinions after seeing the markets today? The main point not loudly stated, although I think Erin understands, is that market timing doesn’t work, but LIFE BASED PLANING DOES. We are retired and in distribution. We have enough to not need high returns every year, but are subject to Sequence of Return Risk. So we have about 5 years of money in low risk investments like CDs and bonds held to maturity. The rest in stocks, metals and even some Bitcoin. This way we have no chance of having our portfolio drop to levels that would adversely affect our lifestyle. I am totally comfortable giving up a little upside for security! I tell my kids to just keep DCA since they are decades from retirement.
This video is very timely. As I approach retirement I have struggled with staying 100% in equities because I have a military pension. However using the pillow test, I switched to an 80/20 portfolio. Thank you for all that you share.
As always, I've enjoyed your videos. They serve as a general reinforcement reminders, and for new investors, a focus and a starting point... Couple things. 1) I think you meant Worst 10 year market condition 1929-1939 =) 2) with 2025, we'll probably see more individuals investing in the market, with the automatic 401k contribution, by default. Hence, this may be a factor on the upside...
Erin has a good perspective in the overall equity market. She is right you will lose if you time the market. Stay invested. Those who weather the 2008 market crash of -38% and kept buying at the low quadruple their money relative to those who sold and waited to get back in.
Happy Holidays, everyone! Erin, I love your videos, and thank you for posting them. I have been a long-term investor since 1977, and I have been retired since 2012. God is always good!
Attempting to “time the market” is futile but trying to recognize when valuations are unreasonably high or unreasonably low and factoring that into decisions about the balance of risk in one’s portfolio is a fine idea. The idea of resolving yourself to buy and hold forever is better than panic selling and never getting back in but that still doesn’t make it a good plan
@ It comes down to the loss of future opportunity. The money that you lock into investments that are worth less than what you paid for them is money that can’t be used to buy when good deals are available. A bear market is the best time to be alive if you have significant dry powder to invest. How many years of investment is a huge variable here though. Riding the market to the bottom with 1 year of your investments is significantly different than if you are dealing with 10 or 20 years of investment gains. Also, none of us know what the future holds for the stock indexes of course. People like to assume they will have a reasonably short period to wait out being under water on their investments. To have a 30 year period like the Nikkei 225 (where the 1990 peak wasn’t reached again until 2024) is the nightmare scenario for those folks. The buy and holder puts a very high priority in seeing maximum paper gains by being in when the market gets to its last ATH before the inevitable next market cycle. Better to sell early and suffer seeing it go higher than to be presented with selling at a loss as your only option later.
Average annual return is about 9%; However, there are very few years where the market actually return that average (6% to 12%). I keep on investing, but realize that the return on new money deployed will be low due to the current overvaluation.
You are my favorite You Tube investment person. You explain things so I can comprehend them and I actually enjoy learning from you. You’re also a beautiful woman with a nice personality.
We are in another technology boom like the 90s. Get in, stay in, and enjoy the ride. There will be a 30-40% correction sometime in the future but stay the course.
I definitely believe in your plan of dollar cost averaging (just keep investing) though this may be a difficult time if one is close to retirement. Also? That blue looks great!
My FA says very similar things when it comes to investing, I’m retired so I tread lightly (conservatively) but agree with your assessment. I have faith in the market to remain positive. Enjoy your videos.
My prediction is that up or down, I'll keep investing aggressively. That said, I'd be more comfortable with moderate growth for economic stability in the future.
I predict a continuation of excellent financial insights and discussions. I’d like to see an increase of your dog appearances and decrease in leaf blowers in the background..haha.
@ I did conversions for this year. I am saying I will not try and time the market for all investments but if it is down during next year I will have the whole year to do another conversion. Hope this makes more sense :-)
@@wernerfoerster3666- “timing” roth conversions isn’t getting out of the market. It’s doing the conversions when the equity’s value is low to pay less in taxes. Usually people keep their IRA investments when doing a Roth conversion. You just need to come up with the tax money from somewhere else (not the IRA).
@@drz400sy8 Are you certain you wanna do a conversion in a down market that might keep going, even, further? Why not get some or all of your principal back while the markets are up & leave the profit in there? That way you've got the cash ready to deploy, again, when you're ready to buy low. And if you're not retired nor retiring soon, keep d.c.a.'ing into the markets... Just an idea out of a multitude that's out there
Erin, you do everything right! U are sooo intelligent! Know finance! Speak so well! And soo attractive!!! I have been subscribed to ur channel for a looong time!!!! TY Erin...
2025 will probably be pretty good for the markets. But after the sugar rush of wild, out of control revenue, short falls, that are guaranteed to come, we’re probably due for a pretty big correction. That’s OK, buy on the dip. Make a fortune when we get this all straightened out.
Age demographics within a domestic economy can be precisely predicted. Age demographics, income/wealth distribution within those demographic percentages, and generalized financial priorities of those demographic percentages. Those parameters can provide the clearest weighted prediction of future markets.
For the 2nd worst 10yr period, I think you meant to refer to the 2000-2010 "Lost Decade" of virtually $0 gain of held money. From Jan. 2008 to Dec. 2018 the S&P 500 returned a total return of 74% (NASDAQ ret. 123%)
Didn't Charlie Munger warn that no index is immune to a sharp correction when a concentrated stock segment valuations soar too high. The average PE of the Nifty in the last 20 years was around 20, the current market is 32, overvalued. It seems like something has to give out and this market start to cool down.
I’m 11 years away from my planned retirement date. And if I don’t feel comfortable I’ll work for another year or two before I retire. Until I actually retire the market really doesn’t matter much since I’m investing for retirement, not tomorrow.
Hahaha…great ending! And 2025 I am hoping the market continues to thrive in a positive direction. My only worry is our unstable world and the conflicts they produce. That can definitely throw a wrench into the system.
I have been fortunate enough to stay over 90% invested in the market through my 10 years of retirement. Further, I was over 95% in the market prior to retirement. It can be a frightening ride going through those 30-50$% downswings. However, staying the course has paid off handsomely. Your last part of this video fits my experience perfectly. I predict that Erin will continue to grow her audience and further improve the quality of delivery. And, yes, the post script moments are the cutest. I would never call them bloopers!
Thanks for making these videos! They are always informative and entertaining to watch! Just wanted to let you know that there is a little mistake in the worst 10 years section, when saying the years of the great depression... it should be 1929 to 1939 instead of 2029 to 2039 . I hope it was a small mistake and not a prediction! Thanks again for your videos!
Erin Talks Money is a very well presented. Erin makes thinking about the market and investing a very pleasent listen. For a future episodes, perhaps Erin could talk about market "melt-up"...would this fall under the title "something else"?
At 3:53, the statement "There has never been a 10-year period where the stock market as a whole has posted negative returns" didn't sound right to me. Unless I'm misunderstanding what's being claimed, there are at least 2 periods where this is not true... Jan 1999 to Jan 2009 is one example (-18.3% return or -2% annualized). Another is Oct 1929 to Oct 1939 (-53.9% return or -7.45% annualized). Those rates of return are based on the S&P 500 including dividends.
once you factor in dividends being reinvested (and allowed to compound) - research has shown that returns over 10 year rolling periods has been positive www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/research/research-sp500-dividend-aristocrats.pdf
I agree that the decade 2000-2009 was a lost decade for the S&P 500. With dividend reinvested, the average annualized return was -0.5% per year th-cam.com/video/7VAXj35xXSg/w-d-xo.html&si=_SBxcH2Kk37HICVq
Usually by the time you come to the conclusion that it’s going to be a down year it’s too late. I’ve tried timing the market and only hit the bullseye once. It’s not worth it. It’s hard and takes some effort but long term is the only way to go.
Love your videos and the bloopers at the end. You missed a blooper in this video, unless you're predicting a great depression in 2029. At the 4:20 mark you said the great depression was the 2029-2039 period instead of 1929-1939.😅😅😅
They cut rates too early. Tariffs which I agree with will cause the market to go down before it gets better. 1 step back to go 2 forward. Volatility the next couple years. Great for investing. Let's go
S&P500 could drop 36% in 2025 and you'd be even from two years prior, which means that you didn't miss out on investing two years ago since you can invest more. What we can expect from 2025 is a boom, bust, and something else. That's the market baby!
I expect the us stock market to growth between 5 and 8 percent in 2025. Tech will rebalance a bit due to the current hot AI play … it has to cool down to an equilibrium that is more sustainable.
I'm worried about a strongly negative 2025, so I'm keeping a lot of cash in money market sweep accounts. Yes, it's market timing, but I'm okay with only getting a 4% return on 15% of my NW. And I'm going to do a 4-year Roth conversion ladder and need lots of cash to pay the tax. I'm retired. If I still had a job, I would stay fully invested.
i plan on selling most of my short term brokerage crypto and stocks early on in 2025 and holding cash or bonds. As for my roth ira im just dollar cost averaging and not selling anything. Roth is up 16% on the year and my individualis average is up 48% ...some as high as 100%.
HI Erin. Great discussion today and I am 100%% in agreement with you - we are on the same page. I don't know what the market will do, nobody else does either, but what I do know is that I'll still be in the market. Have a blessed week and I'll see you on the next one. Larry, Central Valley, Ca.
It's always surprised me that people don't separate owning a piece/s of the market from owning a pile of currency. We'd all be better off if the actual cash value of investments weren't the focal point until appropriately close to retirement...
Thanks for the encouragement Erin lots of Dooms Day predictions on internet & U-Tube, I Plan to keep invested in stock index funds for the long term, holding a couple years of cash to weather any downturns!
What’s up with us money supply expansion ? Everybody seems to underestimate the dollar year on year value loss to itself. You might think 🤔 you are getting richer but all it is just an money inflation
I'm scared of how high the S & P 500 is right now, so i've been transitioning more into VT which has less of the S & P 500, and more of the world stocks in it which don't curently seem as overvalued.
Something that I did a few months ago was diversify away from 500 Index funds because only 7 to 10 companies make up over 1/3 of the value of those funds. I’m still 95% invested in stocks, but I’m invested in more than just the top 7 to 10 companies now.
If I’m putting $85,000 check into my Fidelity account, do I need to invest that into SPAXX or will it do that automatically if that’s my “default” position?
That’s another blooper. She mentioned the Great Depression happened in 2029-2039 instead of 1929-1939 th-cam.com/video/7VAXj35xXSg/w-d-xo.html&si=IzCOrnAl-I7_C3ha
With all the bad news videos it’s nice to come across something more positive. Thank you for bloopers (keeping it real), not predicting, and reminding us all that patience is key.
On the one hand I’m scared by several years of high returns leading to historically high valuations, and concerned by Trump’s stated policies of mass deportations and high tariffs. On the other hand corporate tax cuts and decreased regulations could be net positive for the markets. Given these contradictions, I’m falling back on basics and regular rebalancing. I planned on a 60:40 split; one account is now 70:30 and an old one I haven’t touched in years is nearly 80:20. So simply getting back to my planned balance should help me reduce risk. I also have been overweight on US equities (which has worked out for the past 10 years) so I might increase exposure to international stocks as well. I feel these should be conservative moves to keep my plan on track despite the uncertainties.
I predict that the market will keep on marketing.
best prediction ever!!!
Engineered "Soft Landing" by FED's / Powell, IS, Coming for, One MORE,. "Good" Year !
TH-cam,. "Doomers", will Be,. WRONG !!!
please look at reality ... not just smiles and rainbows
@@wernerfoerster3666 I have no idea what you are talking about. My comment accounts for an increase, decline, or even being flat.
@@timopraxisLMAO 😂😂😂!!! Perfect response
The market crash of 2008 saw my portfolio down 55%. I did nothing. Left my investments alone and continued to invest. Because I told myself it didn’t matter what my portfolio balance was in 2008. It was 2024 that mattered, my projected retirement date. Such an outlook rewarded me handsomely.
But what if you were 64 years old in 2008? Suddenly it looks different doesn’t it
@@kevinseversonandhisvizslas8287 Money you plan to spend on "life" in the next few years probably should be invested somewhere other than stocks? Just an idea.....
Congratulations. I should have done the same. In my personal life I didn't know one person who held on through that.
@@kevinseversonandhisvizslas8287 I retired in Jan 2008, I tightened my belt, lived off the 3 years of cash I had as a buffer and didn't sell until the market came back. I did go back to work in Dec 2010 and worked for 3 more years. I stuffed the max into my 401K with catch up amounts too. I wish I had put more into my brokerage account and gone for the cheaper long term capital gains tax instead. I now have 72% in my 401K and IRA.
A lot of my co workers pulled out, I stayed the course.
I really appreciate how straightforward your videos are. No doom/gloom or euphoria, just talking some numbers. Thank you!
I'm glad you like them! 😊
Bloopers!! Love it.
I Hit $12,590 k today. Thank you for all the knowledge and nuggets you had thrown my way over the last week .i started with 3k in last week 2024..... now i just hit $12,590
Just keep buying whether it’s up, down or sideways.
I like the term 'pillow test' you used for making individual decisions that help the investor sleep at night. That sums up many things, from retirement investing to whether to pay off the house early, etc. The math behind the decision vs the emotional toll of the decision, and finding a personal balance. Thanks
Thank you!! 🙏
Such a refreshing video to watch about the markets. Subscribed! 😀
Biggest lesson i've learnt in 2024 in the stock market is that nobody knows what is going to happen next, so practice some humility and follow a strategy with a long term edge.
Uncertainty... it took me 5 years to stop trying to predict what bout to happen in market based on charts studying, cause you never know. not having an advisor guide me cost me 5 years of pain I learn to go we’re the market is wanting to go and keep it simple with discipline.
I’ve been down a ton, I’m only holding on so I can recoup, I really need help, who is this investment-adviser that guides you?
My adviser is "'Annette Marie Holt " You can easily look her up. She has years of financial market experience and she is also FINRA & SEC verifiable.
Thank you for this amazing tip. I verified her and booked a call session with her. She seems Proficient.
If I assume the promised tarriffs actually materialize, i predict a down 2025 and possibly even 2026. Tarriffs will increase inflation and other countries will reciprocate.
If the promised tarriffs do not happen or are significantly less, we will probably do ok. I think this is the most likely scenario.
As a retired couple, weI are still converting IRAs to roth and our roths have mostly dividend funds and I reinvest. My goal is to keep our income, including RMDs below the IRMAA level that impose a medicare surcharge. My emergency and living cash is in a MM account or a Treasury fund. I feel comfortable we have enough cash to wearher a downturn.
I love watching your videos. They are easy to understand and are always timely for me. Thanks.
Tariffs in 2016-2020 and the economy was great.
@@republicunited2183 none of the previous tariffs were nearly as bad as what has been threatened. There have been threats not only to countries we might consider enemies but to countries we consider friends and allies. Tariffs on the EU, tariffs on Canada and Mexico, tariffs in Japan, etc. We expect tariffs on China, but our friends and allies deserve discussion and negotiation, not threats. As I said in my comment, if the tariffs that have been promised happen, it will make previous tariffs look like a slap on the hand. Our economy can't continue to do well if we alienate or friends and allies. They will respond and then what do we get? We get an economy that loses its exports, and economy that costs more to import and an economy that will surely go into a recession.
I keep it very simple. 75% of year are positive. 3 out of 4 years are positive. I don’t like the 50% downsides so I hedge. The max temporarily down is 19.3% in 40 years. My recovery time in big downsides is 4 months. I can absolutely live with that.
"My recovery time in big downsides is 4 months" I don't understand what you are saying here. Can you elaborate?
wow, that was a Harris word salad.
You are wise beyond your years, Erin! Thank you for sticking to the facts!
Minor typo - Erin casually predicting another Great Depression in 2029-2039 😉
Opps at 4:23 of the video, these young folks who barely remember the 1900's....😊😊
She's just helping us realize that she's the real deal and we can believe her!
Haha 😂
Amazing video. I am one of the person she talked about, timing the market. I could not get in the down turns and I am still all cash 😂. Now I am changing my mind set and getting into the market by dollar cost averaging overtime. Another key item to remember for folks like me is to automate the process. My new brokerage can automatically buy ETFs for me on weekly basis, hence disconnecting me from the process and trying not to time the market. This also help when the market is high and we are scared what if I put all my money in and the market drops. This psychology has kept me out of the market for 15 years 😂.
Tuned in for the content 🤓👌🏽
Stayed for the bloopers 😂
🤞🏽for a stellar 2025 Erin
I think Erin's upping her microphone and editing software game. Crisp!
I predict somewhere between 3-8%, but whatever happens won't change my dollar cost averaging. Hoping for another 20%+ year
You are wise beyond your years, Erin! Thank you for sticking to the facts!. You are wise beyond your years
Thanks!
Erin, I love your videos. I've shared you with several of my family members and always stay till the end to watch your bloopers. Keep up the good work.
Thank you so much!
Any opinions after seeing the markets today?
The main point not loudly stated, although I think Erin understands, is that market timing doesn’t work, but LIFE BASED PLANING DOES.
We are retired and in distribution. We have enough to not need high returns every year, but are subject to Sequence of Return Risk.
So we have about 5 years of money in low risk investments like CDs and bonds held to maturity.
The rest in stocks, metals and even some Bitcoin.
This way we have no chance of having our portfolio drop to levels that would adversely affect our lifestyle.
I am totally comfortable giving up a little upside for security!
I tell my kids to just keep DCA since they are decades from retirement.
This video is very timely. As I approach retirement I have struggled with staying 100% in equities because I have a military pension. However using the pillow test, I switched to an 80/20 portfolio.
Thank you for all that you share.
As always, I've enjoyed your videos. They serve as a general reinforcement reminders, and for new investors, a focus and a starting point...
Couple things.
1) I think you meant Worst 10 year market condition 1929-1939 =)
2) with 2025, we'll probably see more individuals investing in the market, with the automatic 401k contribution, by default. Hence, this may be a factor on the upside...
Love the bloopers at the end!
Erin has a good perspective in the overall equity market. She is right you will lose if you time the market. Stay invested. Those who weather the 2008 market crash of -38% and kept buying at the low quadruple their money relative to those who sold and waited to get back in.
Happy Holidays, everyone!
Erin, I love your videos, and thank you for posting them. I have been a long-term investor since 1977, and I have been retired since 2012. God is always good!
“Time in the market” beats “market timing”.
I agree with Erin completely on this point. 👍
Attempting to “time the market” is futile but trying to recognize when valuations are unreasonably high or unreasonably low and factoring that into decisions about the balance of risk in one’s portfolio is a fine idea.
The idea of resolving yourself to buy and hold forever is better than panic selling and never getting back in but that still doesn’t make it a good plan
Why not? Why is always buying and not panic selling bad?
@ It comes down to the loss of future opportunity. The money that you lock into investments that are worth less than what you paid for them is money that can’t be used to buy when good deals are available. A bear market is the best time to be alive if you have significant dry powder to invest.
How many years of investment is a huge variable here though. Riding the market to the bottom with 1 year of your investments is significantly different than if you are dealing with 10 or 20 years of investment gains.
Also, none of us know what the future holds for the stock indexes of course. People like to assume they will have a reasonably short period to wait out being under water on their investments. To have a 30 year period like the Nikkei 225 (where the 1990 peak wasn’t reached again until 2024) is the nightmare scenario for those folks.
The buy and holder puts a very high priority in seeing maximum paper gains by being in when the market gets to its last ATH before the inevitable next market cycle. Better to sell early and suffer seeing it go higher than to be presented with selling at a loss as your only option later.
Average annual return is about 9%; However, there are very few years where the market actually return that average (6% to 12%).
I keep on investing, but realize that the return on new money deployed will be low due to the current overvaluation.
Yes long term investing wins thank you for your insight on this!!
You are my favorite You Tube investment person. You explain things so I can comprehend them and I actually enjoy learning from you. You’re also a beautiful woman with a nice personality.
We are in another technology boom like the 90s. Get in, stay in, and enjoy the ride.
There will be a 30-40% correction sometime in the future but stay the course.
Good reminder. Probably going up unless it goes down. Sorry, that's the best prediction I can make.
I definitely believe in your plan of dollar cost averaging (just keep investing) though this may be a difficult time if one is close to retirement.
Also? That blue looks great!
I predict more great videos from you in 2025!
😊🙏
like your factual and common sense approach.
thanks so much!
I enjoy all the content 😊
My FA says very similar things when it comes to investing, I’m retired so I tread lightly (conservatively) but agree with your assessment. I have faith in the market to remain positive. Enjoy your videos.
My prediction is that up or down, I'll keep investing aggressively. That said, I'd be more comfortable with moderate growth for economic stability in the future.
great plan!
As usual great content!
Much appreciated!
good job and solid message. Forget the bloopers
I predict a continuation of excellent financial insights and discussions. I’d like to see an increase of your dog appearances and decrease in leaf blowers in the background..haha.
Awesome video! I’m parking most my cash in SGOV & reinvesting dividends into FXAIX. So far it’s done me well!
Great video Erin. Solid information. I thoroughly enjoy your financial advice and think you are providing information that people need.
I plan to do market timing this year. Hold out a bit until the market drops and then do a Roth conversion….. will see if it works. 😅
you cant wait until the market drops its like slow boiling ... do it now
what does Roth conversion have to do with getting out of the market?
@ I did conversions for this year. I am saying I will not try and time the market for all investments but if it is down during next year I will have the whole year to do another conversion. Hope this makes more sense :-)
@@wernerfoerster3666- “timing” roth conversions isn’t getting out of the market. It’s doing the conversions when the equity’s value is low to pay less in taxes. Usually people keep their IRA investments when doing a Roth conversion. You just need to come up with the tax money from somewhere else (not the IRA).
@@drz400sy8 Are you certain you wanna do a conversion in a down market that might keep going, even, further? Why not get some or all of your principal back while the markets are up & leave the profit in there? That way you've got the cash ready to deploy, again, when you're ready to buy low. And if you're not retired nor retiring soon, keep d.c.a.'ing into the markets... Just an idea out of a multitude that's out there
Erin, you do everything right! U are sooo intelligent! Know finance! Speak so well! And soo attractive!!! I have been subscribed to ur channel for a looong time!!!! TY Erin...
Loved the bloopers!
2025 will probably be pretty good for the markets. But after the sugar rush of wild, out of control revenue, short falls, that are guaranteed to come, we’re probably due for a pretty big correction. That’s OK, buy on the dip. Make a fortune when we get this all straightened out.
Age demographics within a domestic economy can be precisely predicted. Age demographics, income/wealth distribution within those demographic percentages, and generalized financial priorities of those demographic percentages. Those parameters can provide the clearest weighted prediction of future markets.
Erin, thanks for all the great content in 2024!
Thanks for watching! 😊
How much of the increase is just inflation?
For the 2nd worst 10yr period, I think you meant to refer to the 2000-2010 "Lost Decade" of virtually $0 gain of held money. From Jan. 2008 to Dec. 2018 the S&P 500 returned a total return of 74% (NASDAQ ret. 123%)
great predictions/ recommendation !
Didn't Charlie Munger warn that no index is immune to a sharp correction when a concentrated stock segment valuations soar too high. The average PE of the Nifty in the last 20 years was around 20, the current market is 32, overvalued. It seems like something has to give out and this market start to cool down.
It's a breath of fresh air to see a comment using math rather than feelings.
Did you say 2029-2039? Loved the video. Very accurate and helpful!
I caught that too!
Interesting review of past markets, but what about “Irrational Exuberance” years?
I’m 11 years away from my planned retirement date. And if I don’t feel comfortable I’ll work for another year or two before I retire. Until I actually retire the market really doesn’t matter much since I’m investing for retirement, not tomorrow.
Hahaha…great ending! And 2025 I am hoping the market continues to thrive in a positive direction. My only worry is our unstable world and the conflicts they produce. That can definitely throw a wrench into the system.
New sub from the uk..loved the content
Can you do a video on how you reinvest dividends? Thanks for this video!
Yeah you click on reinvest dividends as the option for that investment
I have been fortunate enough to stay over 90% invested in the market through my 10 years of retirement. Further, I was over 95% in the market prior to retirement. It can be a frightening ride going through those 30-50$% downswings. However, staying the course has paid off handsomely. Your last part of this video fits my experience perfectly.
I predict that Erin will continue to grow her audience and further improve the quality of delivery. And, yes, the post script moments are the cutest. I would never call them bloopers!
very risky
"Fortunate" is a very good description.
Hey kiddo. Thanks for what you do. Really Appreciate it.
Thanks for making these videos! They are always informative and entertaining to watch! Just wanted to let you know that there is a little mistake in the worst 10 years section, when saying the years of the great depression... it should be 1929 to 1939 instead of 2029 to 2039 . I hope it was a small mistake and not a prediction! Thanks again for your videos!
I caught that one too!
Have you done a video on risk tolerance ?
Erin Talks Money is a very well presented. Erin makes thinking about the market and investing a very pleasent listen. For a future episodes, perhaps Erin could talk about market "melt-up"...would this fall under the title "something else"?
My prediction for the market in 2025 is down down down down down since I'm about to invest a significant amount of money in it.
I believe 2025 is going to be a down year
At 3:53, the statement "There has never been a 10-year period where the stock market as a whole has posted negative returns" didn't sound right to me. Unless I'm misunderstanding what's being claimed, there are at least 2 periods where this is not true... Jan 1999 to Jan 2009 is one example (-18.3% return or -2% annualized). Another is Oct 1929 to Oct 1939 (-53.9% return or -7.45% annualized). Those rates of return are based on the S&P 500 including dividends.
once you factor in dividends being reinvested (and allowed to compound) - research has shown that returns over 10 year rolling periods has been positive www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/research/research-sp500-dividend-aristocrats.pdf
I agree that the decade 2000-2009 was a lost decade for the S&P 500. With dividend reinvested, the average annualized return was -0.5% per year th-cam.com/video/7VAXj35xXSg/w-d-xo.html&si=_SBxcH2Kk37HICVq
I'm glad we gave back some gains yesterday. IMO this market needs to chill
I think it will be up but another 20% I don't know, I hope!
Usually by the time you come to the conclusion that it’s going to be a down year it’s too late. I’ve tried timing the market and only hit the bullseye once. It’s not worth it. It’s hard and takes some effort but long term is the only way to go.
Great video.
Love your videos and the bloopers at the end.
You missed a blooper in this video, unless you're predicting a great depression in 2029. At the 4:20 mark you said the great depression was the 2029-2039 period instead of 1929-1939.😅😅😅
Very nice
They cut rates too early. Tariffs which I agree with will cause the market to go down before it gets better. 1 step back to go 2 forward. Volatility the next couple years. Great for investing. Let's go
Tariffs are just a bargaining tool. They won’t happen
S&P500 could drop 36% in 2025 and you'd be even from two years prior, which means that you didn't miss out on investing two years ago since you can invest more. What we can expect from 2025 is a boom, bust, and something else. That's the market baby!
I expect the us stock market to growth between 5 and 8 percent in 2025. Tech will rebalance a bit due to the current hot AI play … it has to cool down to an equilibrium that is more sustainable.
2025 will be a growth year in my opinion; maybe even 2026 as well. What I'll do differently is take a longer look into small and mid-cap stocks.
I keep trying to time it but keep losing
I'm worried about a strongly negative 2025, so I'm keeping a lot of cash in money market sweep accounts. Yes, it's market timing, but I'm okay with only getting a 4% return on 15% of my NW. And I'm going to do a 4-year Roth conversion ladder and need lots of cash to pay the tax. I'm retired. If I still had a job, I would stay fully invested.
i plan on selling most of my short term brokerage crypto and stocks early on in 2025 and holding cash or bonds. As for my roth ira im just dollar cost averaging and not selling anything. Roth is up 16% on the year and my individualis average is up 48% ...some as high as 100%.
Erin, Great Depression was from 1929 through 1939 and not as you indicated in the video as 2029 through 2039. I know slip of tongue 😊
I think 2025 is going to be another good year. Maybe not > 20%, but still positive. I am not basing that on anything except my gut.
HI Erin. Great discussion today and I am 100%% in agreement with you - we are on the same page. I don't know what the market will do, nobody else does either, but what I do know is that I'll still be in the market. Have a blessed week and I'll see you on the next one. Larry, Central Valley, Ca.
I hope you are having better weather out in California than we are over here on the East Coast. It is getting so cold.
@@ErinTalksMoney Hi 30's - low 40's night time low and @55 or so for daytime high. It will get cold here in about 4-5 weeks.
It's always surprised me that people don't separate owning a piece/s of the market from owning a pile of currency. We'd all be better off if the actual cash value of investments weren't the focal point until appropriately close to retirement...
Wait - great depression in 2029?? Are you predicting or 100 years off??? 😊 @ 4:08
Oops. I think you meant 1929 to 1939, not 2029 to 2039, lol. Love you Erin!
Thanks for the encouragement Erin lots of Dooms Day predictions on internet & U-Tube,
I Plan to keep invested in stock index funds for the long term, holding a couple years of cash to weather any downturns!
What’s up with us money supply expansion ? Everybody seems to underestimate the dollar year on year value loss to itself. You might think 🤔 you are getting richer but all it is just an money inflation
I'm scared of how high the S & P 500 is right now, so i've been transitioning more into VT which has less of the S & P 500, and more of the world stocks in it which don't curently seem as overvalued.
Something that I did a few months ago was diversify away from 500 Index funds because only 7 to 10 companies make up over 1/3 of the value of those funds. I’m still 95% invested in stocks, but I’m invested in more than just the top 7 to 10 companies now.
Wait. Are you saying the president doesn’t impact the stock market?
VOO & Chill!
Erin, you might check, but the S&P lost money during the 10 year period of 1/1/2000-12/31/2009.
If you were reinvesting dividends that likely is false.
Hello my love, I am talking from Portugal. I believe you ❤ my love
If I’m putting $85,000 check into my Fidelity account, do I need to invest that into SPAXX or will it do that automatically if that’s my “default” position?
If your default (core) account is that MM, then the deposit goes there.
@@halcooper6059 Thanks baby
I wanted to hear you cuss in the bloopers! 😃😆
"Will the market go up or down in 2025?"
"Yes."
Erin, are you predicting a depression from 2029 to 2039?!
nooooo
That’s another blooper. She mentioned the Great Depression happened in 2029-2039 instead of 1929-1939 th-cam.com/video/7VAXj35xXSg/w-d-xo.html&si=IzCOrnAl-I7_C3ha
@rpshah79 Exactly! That was what I was teasing Erin about.
With all the bad news videos it’s nice to come across something more positive. Thank you for bloopers (keeping it real), not predicting, and reminding us all that patience is key.
2025 will continue to be good I dont think it will be as good as 2023 and 2024 im thinking still over 15% but not as good as the last two have been.
Markets with do what they do. It is a random walk. No way to predict it. Just buy and hold the total global market. 👍
On the one hand I’m scared by several years of high returns leading to historically high valuations, and concerned by Trump’s stated policies of mass deportations and high tariffs. On the other hand corporate tax cuts and decreased regulations could be net positive for the markets. Given these contradictions, I’m falling back on basics and regular rebalancing. I planned on a 60:40 split; one account is now 70:30 and an old one I haven’t touched in years is nearly 80:20. So simply getting back to my planned balance should help me reduce risk. I also have been overweight on US equities (which has worked out for the past 10 years) so I might increase exposure to international stocks as well. I feel these should be conservative moves to keep my plan on track despite the uncertainties.