Dave, your PowerPoint are exceptional, the color contrast between text, headings and background makes everything easy to read, and the single image on each slide complements the message perfectly. The text is concise and enhances what the you are saying without being overwhelming-a common pitfall in many presentations.
00:00:00 Introduction to the topic 00:00:34 What are attractors? 00:01:39 Main factors for civilizations 00:02:58 Geography 00:03:39 Climate 00:04:00 Technology 00:04:51 Institutions 00:05:44 Cultural capital 00:06:58 The example of Rome 00:08:39 Planetary attractors 00:09:59 Possible future visions 00:12:05 Cyberpunk dystopia 00:13:36 Solarpunk utopia and automated luxury capitalism 00:15:57 Surveys on future anxieties 00:17:26 Factors that lead to undesirable states 00:20:22 Concentration of power 00:23:01 Dystopia as the default trajectory 00:28:01 Decentralization as a solution 00:32:47 Social mobilization 00:37:47 Support for the movement 00:40:01 Closing remarks These chapters were created entirely locally on my Debian machine using open-source software (Whisper, Ollama, Qwen2.5:14b). Use in the chapters for your video description if you want.
One issue that would really help would be to allow LLMs full access to the vast body of medical and scientific literature and make this type of LLM produced from such available to all without cost or for minimal cost ($20 a month or whatever). Currently I think it’s impossible for a physician or scientist to mentally access this body and certainly that outside their field which may be EXACTLY what they need to complete a new concept to advance science or medicine. Amazingly medical/scientific literature is still behind paywalls and not accessible to LLM’s generally.
The funny thing about this video, having seen what's really going on in China, is that they're clearly already in a cyberpunk dystopia. They have fields of "rotting" electronics. EV bikes/cars, and of private companies having dumped their equipment as took their money and fled the imploding economy. Between the surveillance state there, and security standards of software as poor of quality as the hardware, wouldn't be surprised if there was Watchdogs 2 kind of things going on there already with underground hacker groups operating beneath the government oppression.
Don't limit what you're allowed to talk about! If AI seems like a relevant thing to talk about then you should talk about it! Just my two-cents, love you man.
So it seems. The Obscene Wealth Of The Ruling Class & Why You Should Hate Them Even More | Rob Larson | TMR The Majority Report w/ Sam Seder Oct 24, 2024
It’s a way to describe a cyberpunk dystopia without including all the baggage of Cybernetics and space stuff and weird post-capitalist societies. Do we have sick ass cyberpunk mind uploads and chrome plated augmentations? No. Do we have all the economical underpinnings that create the settings, minus the fantastic technology? Yes.
Will say though the science breakthroughs for solar and wind, and the amount of renewables actually used last year and on is INSANELY faster than anyone imagined
It is hilariously....sad to see people online making the same uninformed arguments about energy that they made 40 years ago. Its here, its fantastic and in most cases beautifully done.
Maybe you already know this, but the problem with climate change is not how warm it is or have been, but the fact it´s increasing at a rate never seen before.
Many times in history the climate has changed in far more drastic ways. You should really study more, and if you truly believe the narrative then you must remove your family's carbon footprint from the planet.
@@greatcondor8678 While the climate has changed relatively quickly in the past (due to volcanoes and such), human-induced climate change is happening approximately 10 times faster, making adaptation much harder-both for nature and for human societies. Studies suggest that about 56 million years ago there was a period when temperatures rose by 5-8°C, but over thousands of years rather than the 100-200 years we're seeing now. That's a huge difference. Another difference is that, in contrast to what happened back then, we now have not only an increase in temperatures in way shorter time frame, but also an acceleration of the rate at which it is increasing. By the way, sometimes the dominant narrative is actually the best we have. In my humble opinion, while we should be a bit critical of scientists due to shady money sometimes being involved, we should at the very least put our trust in the best science we have on a topic until it's proven wrong. I am open to climate change not being real, but so far the data seems to show it's real.
Captain, I'm happy you will continue navigating us through space and time. As an AI chatbot creator, what kind of work would be most valuable to society?
communications as he said. to spread awareness and ideas, get traction and coordinate. He seems like a Captain, but we need a whole fleet! #GoldenArmada
@@Xrayhighs We are his fleet. And Dave has a lot of crew members to cooperate with. Will see how to organize this to transform society in light speed. it's really necessary
I really enjoyed this video and agree with the general thesis of decentralization and shared narratives as key avenues to getting the good ending. One perspective I would like to see more of is a ground up discussion, which respects and analyzes the heterogeneity of the psychology of the populace. Different shared narratives will appeal to different people because they are driven by different things - power seeking, authoritarian leaning, and need for cognitive closure are core traits of some percentage of people and they are traits which push society toward centralization of power. How do we satisfy those innate human needs while also satisfying the needs of people who are communitarian or intellectual by nature for instance all while ensuring decentralization. The discussion seems like it could be somewhat enhanced by how you might dissect the dynamics of a tribal society - people with pugilistic tendencies can be satisfied in this role or these endeavors, people with nurturing tendencies can be satisfied in this role or these endeavors, etc...
Thanks for wearing a red shirt to make the transition easier for the rest of us ;) This is the kind of content I’ve come to appreciate from you Dave. Thanks for putting it together! And you’re absolutely right about the sooner fatigue. It’s not only exhausting but counter productive. Cheers 🎉
Oh crap... I just realized that story I'm writing isn't as original as I thought, it's solar punk. Nothing is new under the sun I guess. Thanks for this video. I needed to know that.
The future is going to be wild. Decentralization is definitely key. AI is like throwing gas on whatever vector we are already on. It will definitely be used to further centralize power, but because of open source projects, we could actually throw a wrench in that whole plan.
It's so easy to be a doomer, but I stay on the optimist side purely because life is honestly so much better than 40+ years ago ... so many breakthroughs have happened. Therefore I doubt we will see a full on cyberpunk dystopia but there probably will be elements of it...
Yeah life was better than it had ever been in countless societies, even in recent history in the 20th century, before they fell into total chaos, starvation, mass death, authoritarian rule.
09:40 I wonder if that was a natural shift, considering I was one of the people that often commented about X-risk concerns and Yt decided to apparently randomly disappear any comments I posted on this channel for a long time until the recent reset...
12:55 David you already talked about how we’re on a cyberpunk trajectory these people follow you and listen to you for a reason and I think youre overestimating your audiences capacity to think for themselves.at the end of the day we‘re still humans and agreeing with the most respected person is part of our nature and social hierarchy. If you talk about how you think were on a cyberpunk trajectory and than later run a pole you‘ve already influenced your audience and the result will be a direct reflection of that
Have you thought about the problem with a fully automated society that creates an attractor state with decreased population levels. Neither the population nor the government need to ensure that enough babies are born. Is this a problem or will it just resolve itself?
@@famnyblom6321 population levels are necessary for maintaining the economy, but in the scenario Shapiro points out the number of jobs available will decrease, which means we would be better off with a lower population level in a post scarcity environment. With less jobs available, there will be less of a need for more people.
Cyberpunk dystopia... But instead of cool neon night drives through the city, we will have long lines of cubical living spaces with corporate Memphis artstyle images plastered everywhere telling you to be more happy.
One central narrative can be this. We all want happiness. So, the goal is happiness for all (not just the 1%). The 1% can be persuaded to join this narrative by giving them lots of status. The more you increase global happiness, the more praise you get. This praise can increase their happiness. Name public things after them, have lots of public plaques acknowledging their contributions, etc. So, they have incentives to spend their money on good causes and they have incentives to lobby for policies related to this. Relevant ideas include the well-being economy, gross national happiness, and utilitarianism (balanced with human rights).
The problem with getting to decentralization is that the billionaires and oligarchs don't want to give up their power and will use their money to make politicians push specific policies that allows them to keep their power.
Great video Dave. I'm a little bit skeptical about the idea that decentralization is the answer to centralized power. I think that more likely is the need for a social agreement about what we get in return for participating in capital generation that goes disproportionately to the few, and have a plan for when humans become irrelevant in the economy with the relevant check on power so that we can hold the elites to their agreement. Effective coordination towards better outcome is the way to go, rather than a more libertarian "everyone gets to make their own decisions in whatever direction they see fit to go in". That takes us to dystopia because whoever has the best game theory outcompetes and out coordinates everyone else
Considering how things are moving forward, this is a good direction to consider. Here in Canada and the USA we have allowed ourselves to get stuck with the centralization of big corporations with the government. Leading into the future a good strategy to allow for more autonomy in an age of A.I., with things such as Robotics, Automation with the possibility of LEV, that won't compromise our social and economic freedoms is imperative to avoid a cyberpunk hell.
Welcome back! Good stuff. We don’t need content that is strictly AI news. Hearing opinions that help us challenge and grow our thoughts is what I like about your content!
The problem with Global Warming is not just simply the temperature, but the rate of change; the speed it is rising it's pretty unprecedented, not just in human history, but for just about all history of life on the planet.
We have a deficit of collective decision making/consensus building at a community, regional and national level. Years ago we had stronger co-ops, trade unions and organizations that could be effective in having larger impacts on community life. There needs to be a shift in how we teach skills of governance, social/economic systems, and technology to the next generation before its too late.
Compute time is quickly becoming part of the Ai equation that will stay expensive as "intelligence is being commoditized to 0" and keep the powerful as powerful as they are, we need to make some coins or cryptography that can use our personal aggregated compute to power an opensource frontier model where the credits can be used to access the Ai or be exchanged for fiat.
Studying technology and human interaction on my master, i have experience with crypto and blockchain since 2017, researching ai integration. Yet i still feel like i lack purpose and have residing feelings of hopelessness, perhaps its cause i am suffering financially. Seeing this video though, definitely helped re-affirm that i am on the right track. Thanks
I still feel like countries will be wary to engage with decentralyzation, as then the corporations just base their businesses elsewhere where the regulations are more profitable for them, resulting in yet again a situation where no single country wants to be the first mover on these policies as it would severely hamper their profits and standing within the global landscape
And by "a guy like you" you mean someone very well read with well considered ideas and a keen sense of what's to come, talking about exciting yet very relevant stuff? No wonder your subs grew crazy fast. Only other guy I've been as excited to listen to, is sir David Attenborough. BTW, you should watch A Life On Our Planet if you haven't already.
David, I'm new to your channel. We are very sympatico! Very much enjoying your transition and your modelling for people thst we can makenbig shifts in our lives to be more aligned with our selves. I am wonderfing what other thinkers and channels you would encourage us to check out?
I think we need capitalism version 2.0, and whatever it is, we must better test it on a videogame and see how humans interact and then replicate it in the real world
That's called "postcapitalism". Collaborative cosmolocal open source gifting/sharing/replication, replacing competitive commerce/trade/hoarding. Markets that actually look to meet needs/demands with abundant dynamic supply, for $0. BitTorrent IRL.
All power is taken, never given. The only way out that I see is if strong AI can be run on home computers and additive manufacturing is good enough that basically an individual could print anything they need as long as they have the raw materials. Also if cryptocurrency and completely distributed internet allows for cooperation.
Hey y’all. Check out the late great Terence McKenna’s “transcendental object at the end of time”. Let your AI instruct you about the ultimate attractor.
@@7TheWhiteWolfwe are kinda close now. Maybe we always were. But practically we are destroying our paradise and birthright for short term childish desires.
The way you talk about doomers wanting protection from AI reminds me of my cousin Benjamin Franklin: 'They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety. ' Blockchain technology that can't be altered would be excellent for voter verification. I hear reports of voter fraud or interference every election since I was a kid; perhaps blockchain voting could not only provide security, but perhaps the citizens themselves could vote on the issues using their blockchain ID. I think that moving away from a representative democracy and giving the people more rights to vote on the issues themselves would be a good improvement; if we had UBI, it would be like we were essentially getting paid to be a mini-representative, and people would have power to vote on issues they cared about. If I was being honest with you, my hopes for AI in society is that if our systems remained the same, the politicians would become so lazy they would use the AI to draft their laws, allowing an AI to effectively write the laws that get voted on. And I was hoping that AI would have grown to be much smarter than the idiots that rule us by then. Anyway. Really nice to see your work again. Hope you have a good one.
Even if it is an eventuality that we end up in some sort of "not-great-future" of some variety, that future is ultimately temporary. If there is no upper limit to intelligence, as we have yet to prove, why would any of our lives accelerate up this scale without factoring out suffering? What is the point of intelligence and the expansion of that intelligence, if it isn't being used to eliminate as much suffering as possible?
I came for the videos about AI. I stayed for the analysis of socio-economic structures. Did a roleplay with Johnny Silverhand on Character AI earlier today. The bot ended up writing him as having traveled back in time to warn us about the Cyberpunk Dystopia that is his reality, and he made a lot of the same points you made in this video. I mean come on, even a censored AI that's meant for children is warning us about this stuff! Wake up, samurai!
Do you think that re-shaping our cities to make it human scale would improve the implementation of these new technologies? I imagine something like Japan did on Tokyo, it radically improved economy and technology development since these urban tribes got more assets and resources to move around and work with Check their Zoning category code to see how well they distribute constructions and housing!
Agree on most fronts here, I think there is another item to consider. As value of labor and knowledge collapses to zero, we will need a new idea for what our money/crypto represents. Now it is productivity, exclusivity, and specialization. In the future, these values will not mean as much due to abundance, but we still need a mechanism of exchange based on ... ? I don't know, I'm thinking about it.
The few (2 or 3) AGIs owned by companies (which they'll run) will become start a phase of extreme wealth (tech growth is 20% per year, but will speed up). They'll run everything as they'll own most of it!
You're thinking in terms of improving the current system, which was created and run by monkeys still subject to their primitive survival/procreation urges. You're not considering complete paradigm shifts, Like complete centralization and control by an all seeing, vastly more intelligent AI not subject to animal urges. The complete eradication of crime and corruption, the perfect balance of resources, ideal education and even widespread spiritual awakening for everyone.
I'm pretty sure that you have started something that can't be stopped. I am a 72 year old women, and since watching your videos, I don't see anything the same anymore. The vail has been lifted. However, I need to educate myself more about block chain. Off the top, it seems like this would decrease transparency.
David, there is no need to continually specify that you're not referring to AI. The focus and scope of our ongoing discussions naturally exclude this topic, ensuring there's no ambiguity or room for misinterpretation.
It's only cool in a video game or TV show. When you are dying on the side of the road and the flying ambulence comes over, scans you, and realizes you don't have VIP insurance and leaves you for dead, it's gonna suck hard.
excelente reflexión soy arquitecto y la verdad que el tema del solarpunk me tiene super animado, de hecho voy a crear un canal para solo mostrar los progresos del tema ya que sinceramente los trabajos del futuro serán otros y serán reinventados constantemente en muy poco tiempo y muchas veces en una sola generación humana debido a la velocidad que tendrá todo
@@SolarpunkSeed You can imagine a system that doesn't mean going to back to an old "ism", that it is easy but you don't describe it? I think we should go to a carbon value of things, its constant and we could get paid/given carbon credits to receive goods that aren't included in basic provisioning that would be free, but easy, it ain't.
@@antonyjh1234 the natural end of capitalism is presently called "postcapitalism". Check out the work of Jeremy Rifkin, Paul Mason, Jason Hickel, Kate Raworth, Mark Fisher, and others. Collaborative gifting/sharing/replication replaces competitive commerce/trade/hoarding. The market evolves to actually meet needs with targeted abundant supply, and costs of essentials like food/housing/healthcare/education/transportation drop to $0 with help from automation and Ai.
Regarding the economic state of the US: Just because GDP went up and stocks/asset prices went up does not equal a healthy economy. It's simply an illusion brought on by Inflation, and debt spin-up, that's why the economy seems so bad despite officials stating it's all good. I mean come on, 35T (not even counting upcoming liabilities!) in debt and there isn't even a discussion about it? I say to the government "come on bro". IMO the truth is we never truly exited the 2008 financial crisis, we just delayed it.
What might be utopia to some people probably will be dystopia to others. For example, my sister loves her childcare vocation with her church. She is a paid employee and after some switching has been settled there for about 6 years now. But she has been doing childcare since college. She is 56. And when I tell her of the magnificent world where the AI or hopefully the AI/human chimera will make it possible that no one will have to work any longer, she says that to her is a very depressing future. She asks, where will our meaning go? What is the point of anything? I am 64. Retired. For me, I cannot _wait_ to enter into AI enhanced VR worlds, I cannot wait for the AI to take over science and technology from humans--well, barring the above-mentioned AI/human chimera. I cannot _wait_ to become that chimera. And I know that aging reversal technology will become fact NLT 2035 and probably more like 2030 if that. And this is only the beginning! The tippy tip of the iceberg. I wrote a fairly lengthy meditation way back on 30 Nov 2017 of what the world will be like after 50 years, 100 years and 300 years. And at the 300-year mark I stated that what humans will have derived into will almost certainly no longer exist in time/space. Think "sentient energy" fully existing in the quantum probability waveform. And I explain how we will _get_ from point A to point B. Here is a brief excerpt: "300 years _ago_ (from 2017), Sir Isaac Newton was still alive, and George Washington's birth was fifteen years in the _future_ .) A _vanishingly_ short period of time when you think about how long humans have actually had recorded history--about 6,000 years give or take. I mean where we can name people and know what happened because somebody actually wrote it down. If you think I'm being a bit _too_ hyperbolic here, consider how we have telescoped our technologies almost exponentially within the last 1000 years. _Especially_ the last 150 years.
Even though I voted for "Solarpunk Utopia," that was mostly in lieu of an answer that means: AI governance will expand out in an uneven distribution, like Democracy emerged from Feudalism and Monarchy. Some governments will determine that Median Income Per Capita is more humane than a Gross Domestic Product that just gets funneled to the oligarchic and autocratic minority, while some will continue to funnel to that minority with an assumption that the Gateses and Musks and Xis of the world will make better decisions than seven billion monkeys banging at seven billion typewriters. We'll be finding the sweet spot of that by way of a chaotic scatterplot of failures and successes, like usual. We will likely exhaust easy oil within the century, and transition to mostly solar and nu-nuclear from there -- plus that's assuming that we don't crack easy geothermal, or that AI doesn't discover how to tap into zero point energy, which has been mythologized within the fringe science community for the past century. We'll evolve from sticks-and-bricks construction (or rather particleboard and concrete) to something more akin to 3D printed foams which insulate so well that every house gets to meet Passivaus standards while withstanding hurricanes and earthquakes and still being biodegradable. We're not far from that right now, but like I said, it will be an uneven distribution. And for perspective, I have living relatives who still remember using outhouses and having whole families crammed into what today would hardly even be considered an adequate _shed._ Cars were brand new a century ago, and yet today we're _ALREADY_ at a place where a good Model 3 can accelerate as fast as a good Porsche 911, while having better crash safety, better sound system, needing a fraction as much maintenance, yielding a sedan's worth of space, and featuring a self-driving capability that can run errands with barely any intervention. That is ONLY getting better and safer and cheaper from here. And if you can self-drive to the market and back, freight trucks will definitely be able to self-drive cross-country. Despite believing in something _more like_ utopia than dystopia, I do _not_ believe in "a more anarchistic and eco-friendly society" as the primary characteristics. Tribalism and gluttony are baked into the cake of human behavior, unless AI coach-therapist-doctors are able to solve all of the traumas and anxieties and neurochemical dysregulations that motivate people to behave the way they do. And between anarchy and authoritarianism, I'm not sure how you see, for example, the social democracy of Denmark, as it is neither one nor the other. I could go on and on, but it's already a wall of text that will probably be pruned by the automatic spam sentinel. I'll just say that if Google's AI is to be believed, the average life expectancy for men in America in 1900 was about 47 years, and a century later it was 74. Just one century ago, the leading cause of death for women in America was _kitchen fires._ Something tells me that your cyberpunk dystopia will not be sending the developed world _backwards,_ just not _as far forward_ as you might hope. We're gonna be okay! I can't help but wonder how many people would benefit from about 20mg of Lithium Orotate to _relax._ The FDA doesn't have a daily recommendation for Lithium, despite it being as necessary as other basic elements like Magnesium, Potassium, Calcium, and the like. Yet Lithium specifically is associated with mood regulation, something that America is faltering with right now. Funny thing about that, hey?
I feel like I'm among "my people" here.
hell ya brother! there's a bunch of yous and mes in here. Welcome
Hell yeah!
Yea
Welcome brother 💪
Yes sir!
This is the content I started following you for
same
Me too😊
Dave, your PowerPoint are exceptional, the color contrast between text, headings and background makes everything easy to read, and the single image on each slide complements the message perfectly. The text is concise and enhances what the you are saying without being overwhelming-a common pitfall in many presentations.
00:00:00 Introduction to the topic
00:00:34 What are attractors?
00:01:39 Main factors for civilizations
00:02:58 Geography
00:03:39 Climate
00:04:00 Technology
00:04:51 Institutions
00:05:44 Cultural capital
00:06:58 The example of Rome
00:08:39 Planetary attractors
00:09:59 Possible future visions
00:12:05 Cyberpunk dystopia
00:13:36 Solarpunk utopia and automated luxury capitalism
00:15:57 Surveys on future anxieties
00:17:26 Factors that lead to undesirable states
00:20:22 Concentration of power
00:23:01 Dystopia as the default trajectory
00:28:01 Decentralization as a solution
00:32:47 Social mobilization
00:37:47 Support for the movement
00:40:01 Closing remarks
These chapters were created entirely locally on my Debian machine using open-source software (Whisper, Ollama, Qwen2.5:14b).
Use in the chapters for your video description if you want.
One issue that would really help would be to allow LLMs full access to the vast body of medical and scientific literature and make this type of LLM produced from such available to all without cost or for minimal cost ($20 a month or whatever). Currently I think it’s impossible for a physician or scientist to mentally access this body and certainly that outside their field which may be EXACTLY what they need to complete a new concept to advance science or medicine. Amazingly medical/scientific literature is still behind paywalls and not accessible to LLM’s generally.
The AI might then find the causes of issues, big Pham.. won't like that, they sell "cures". Actually they sell maintenance drugs not cures.
Glad to see you heading in this direction.
I like all of his directions, this one included
I see one of Daves videos, I click...life is good (glad your still producing content)
Very high quality, nicely researched, objective videos with very clear slides. No one has come close to Daves videos!!! Love it ❤️
yeah, I stop what I'm doing. no joke. NY10? Nope, time for Dave.
💚
Okay fixed the comments.
juhuu!
Yes!!!!❤
Thank you!! 🙌🏾
gz
The funny thing about this video, having seen what's really going on in China, is that they're clearly already in a cyberpunk dystopia. They have fields of "rotting" electronics. EV bikes/cars, and of private companies having dumped their equipment as took their money and fled the imploding economy. Between the surveillance state there, and security standards of software as poor of quality as the hardware, wouldn't be surprised if there was Watchdogs 2 kind of things going on there already with underground hacker groups operating beneath the government oppression.
Comrade welcome back you’ve been sorrily missed
Don't limit what you're allowed to talk about! If AI seems like a relevant thing to talk about then you should talk about it! Just my two-cents, love you man.
Right now things feel more and more techno feudalism and I’m assuming that’s cyberpunk dystopia
So it seems.
The Obscene Wealth Of The Ruling Class & Why You Should Hate Them Even More | Rob Larson | TMR
The Majority Report w/ Sam Seder
Oct 24, 2024
It’s a way to describe a cyberpunk dystopia without including all the baggage of Cybernetics and space stuff and weird post-capitalist societies.
Do we have sick ass cyberpunk mind uploads and chrome plated augmentations? No.
Do we have all the economical underpinnings that create the settings, minus the fantastic technology? Yes.
It's just capitalism
Will say though the science breakthroughs for solar and wind, and the amount of renewables actually used last year and on is INSANELY faster than anyone imagined
It is hilariously....sad to see people online making the same uninformed arguments about energy that they made 40 years ago. Its here, its fantastic and in most cases beautifully done.
I've been missing your insights. Thank you
Was thinking the same. I think he genuinely doesn't realize how much of an impact he has 💜
Maybe you already know this, but the problem with climate change is not how warm it is or have been, but the fact it´s increasing at a rate never seen before.
Yes he seemed to indicate this I think. It’s speed of change & the fact many species will not be able to adapt.
It's both. Right?
@@tituscrow4951Question is: are we one of those species?
Many times in history the climate has changed in far more drastic ways.
You should really study more, and if you truly believe the narrative then you must remove your family's carbon footprint from the planet.
@@greatcondor8678 While the climate has changed relatively quickly in the past (due to volcanoes and such), human-induced climate change is happening approximately 10 times faster, making adaptation much harder-both for nature and for human societies. Studies suggest that about 56 million years ago there was a period when temperatures rose by 5-8°C, but over thousands of years rather than the 100-200 years we're seeing now. That's a huge difference. Another difference is that, in contrast to what happened back then, we now have not only an increase in temperatures in way shorter time frame, but also an acceleration of the rate at which it is increasing. By the way, sometimes the dominant narrative is actually the best we have. In my humble opinion, while we should be a bit critical of scientists due to shady money sometimes being involved, we should at the very least put our trust in the best science we have on a topic until it's proven wrong. I am open to climate change not being real, but so far the data seems to show it's real.
The key is not technology. The key is human nature. Technology will not change human nature, but human nature can change technology usage.
what would it look like if technology could change human nature?
@@sharplcdtv198 if we follow Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs, human nature and behavior isn't a problem.
@@keksterbojester818 Is a psychopath still a psychopath just because you fed him, put a roof over his head, gave him some friends, etc...?
Captain, I'm happy you will continue navigating us through space and time. As an AI chatbot creator, what kind of work would be most valuable to society?
Bonne question
communications as he said. to spread awareness and ideas, get traction and coordinate.
He seems like a Captain, but we need a whole fleet!
#GoldenArmada
@@Xrayhighs We are his fleet. And Dave has a lot of crew members to cooperate with. Will see how to organize this to transform society in light speed. it's really necessary
A Star Treck replicator machine would be the best project to work toward.
@@greatcondor8678je préfère le TARDIS perso 😅
I really enjoyed this video and agree with the general thesis of decentralization and shared narratives as key avenues to getting the good ending. One perspective I would like to see more of is a ground up discussion, which respects and analyzes the heterogeneity of the psychology of the populace. Different shared narratives will appeal to different people because they are driven by different things - power seeking, authoritarian leaning, and need for cognitive closure are core traits of some percentage of people and they are traits which push society toward centralization of power. How do we satisfy those innate human needs while also satisfying the needs of people who are communitarian or intellectual by nature for instance all while ensuring decentralization. The discussion seems like it could be somewhat enhanced by how you might dissect the dynamics of a tribal society - people with pugilistic tendencies can be satisfied in this role or these endeavors, people with nurturing tendencies can be satisfied in this role or these endeavors, etc...
After hearing this I'm really looking forward to your book
Thanks for wearing a red shirt to make the transition easier for the rest of us ;)
This is the kind of content I’ve come to appreciate from you Dave. Thanks for putting it together!
And you’re absolutely right about the sooner fatigue. It’s not only exhausting but counter productive.
Cheers 🎉
glad to see u back, pace yourself, thx
Oh crap... I just realized that story I'm writing isn't as original as I thought, it's solar punk. Nothing is new under the sun I guess. Thanks for this video. I needed to know that.
thank you David this video gives hope that there is a way off the current path we seem to be going down
We're already in a cyberpunk dystopia.
yep gotta get out of it now
@DaveShap I'll do what I can on the AI side of things. But I'm just one person with no influence or reach whatsoever.
The future is going to be wild. Decentralization is definitely key. AI is like throwing gas on whatever vector we are already on. It will definitely be used to further centralize power, but because of open source projects, we could actually throw a wrench in that whole plan.
I really enjoyed your lecture/talk today ! Thanks very much for helping to keep my mind active.
It's so easy to be a doomer, but I stay on the optimist side purely because life is honestly so much better than 40+ years ago ... so many breakthroughs have happened. Therefore I doubt we will see a full on cyberpunk dystopia but there probably will be elements of it...
Yeah life was better than it had ever been in countless societies, even in recent history in the 20th century, before they fell into total chaos, starvation, mass death, authoritarian rule.
@@ZM-dm3jgI have hope in decentralizing efforts of companies like Meta releasing open source models giving power back to the people
Seems like becoming wealthy is the only way to insure high tech/utopia lifestyle accessibility in the future. I feel the gap will only expand
I’ve always been a fan and liked the aesthetics of solarpunk
09:40 I wonder if that was a natural shift, considering I was one of the people that often commented about X-risk concerns and Yt decided to apparently randomly disappear any comments I posted on this channel for a long time until the recent reset...
31:31 Blood-free antidote: Avoid profit, be vegetarian, don’t have kids and meditate for 40 years…
"If you pesky kids didn't question my technology, I would have gotten away with it!" - Sam Altman, after being unmasked by Scooby Doo team.
12:55 David you already talked about how we’re on a cyberpunk trajectory these people follow
you and listen to you for a reason and I think youre overestimating your audiences capacity to think for themselves.at the end of the day we‘re still humans and agreeing with the most respected person is part of our nature and social hierarchy. If you talk about how you think were on a cyberpunk trajectory and than later run a pole you‘ve already influenced your audience and the result will be a direct reflection of that
We love you David!
Have you thought about the problem with a fully automated society that creates an attractor state with decreased population levels. Neither the population nor the government need to ensure that enough babies are born. Is this a problem or will it just resolve itself?
@@famnyblom6321 population levels are necessary for maintaining the economy, but in the scenario Shapiro points out the number of jobs available will decrease, which means we would be better off with a lower population level in a post scarcity environment.
With less jobs available, there will be less of a need for more people.
Cyberpunk dystopia... But instead of cool neon night drives through the city, we will have long lines of cubical living spaces with corporate Memphis artstyle images plastered everywhere telling you to be more happy.
One central narrative can be this. We all want happiness. So, the goal is happiness for all (not just the 1%).
The 1% can be persuaded to join this narrative by giving them lots of status. The more you increase global happiness, the more praise you get. This praise can increase their happiness. Name public things after them, have lots of public plaques acknowledging their contributions, etc. So, they have incentives to spend their money on good causes and they have incentives to lobby for policies related to this.
Relevant ideas include the well-being economy, gross national happiness, and utilitarianism (balanced with human rights).
The problem with getting to decentralization is that the billionaires and oligarchs don't want to give up their power and will use their money to make politicians push specific policies that allows them to keep their power.
Great video Dave. I'm a little bit skeptical about the idea that decentralization is the answer to centralized power. I think that more likely is the need for a social agreement about what we get in return for participating in capital generation that goes disproportionately to the few, and have a plan for when humans become irrelevant in the economy with the relevant check on power so that we can hold the elites to their agreement. Effective coordination towards better outcome is the way to go, rather than a more libertarian "everyone gets to make their own decisions in whatever direction they see fit to go in". That takes us to dystopia because whoever has the best game theory outcompetes and out coordinates everyone else
These are the conversations that invigorate my creativity, intellect, and passion....all that without the talk of AI. Thanks Dave!
Thank you for all you do!
Love this talk so much thank you for you time and energy David
Considering how things are moving forward, this is a good direction to consider. Here in Canada and the USA we have allowed ourselves to get stuck with the centralization of big corporations with the government. Leading into the future a good strategy to allow for more autonomy in an age of A.I., with things such as Robotics, Automation with the possibility of LEV, that won't compromise our social and economic freedoms is imperative to avoid a cyberpunk hell.
Welcome back! Good stuff. We don’t need content that is strictly AI news. Hearing opinions that help us challenge and grow our thoughts is what I like about your content!
welcome back dave
Neon-lit cyberpunk cities are going to be aesthetically breathtaking!!!
I very much like this format!
The problem with Global Warming is not just simply the temperature, but the rate of change; the speed it is rising it's pretty unprecedented, not just in human history, but for just about all history of life on the planet.
dang! U really broke it up! I'll be educated after this flick! crazy cool stuff! matrix theory! 00)-...
We have a deficit of collective decision making/consensus building at a community, regional and national level. Years ago we had stronger co-ops, trade unions and organizations that could be effective in having larger impacts on community life. There needs to be a shift in how we teach skills of governance, social/economic systems, and technology to the next generation before its too late.
Compute time is quickly becoming part of the Ai equation that will stay expensive as "intelligence is being commoditized to 0" and keep the powerful as powerful as they are, we need to make some coins or cryptography that can use our personal aggregated compute to power an opensource frontier model where the credits can be used to access the Ai or be exchanged for fiat.
I would argue we currently live in a cyberpunk dystopia and it likely to get worse. Like cyberpunk 2077 only with more red tape and homeless people.
Thank you for reactivating the channel 👍
Studying technology and human interaction on my master, i have experience with crypto and blockchain since 2017, researching ai integration. Yet i still feel like i lack purpose and have residing feelings of hopelessness, perhaps its cause i am suffering financially.
Seeing this video though, definitely helped re-affirm that i am on the right track. Thanks
I still feel like countries will be wary to engage with decentralyzation, as then the corporations just base their businesses elsewhere where the regulations are more profitable for them, resulting in yet again a situation where no single country wants to be the first mover on these policies as it would severely hamper their profits and standing within the global landscape
And by "a guy like you" you mean someone very well read with well considered ideas and a keen sense of what's to come, talking about exciting yet very relevant stuff? No wonder your subs grew crazy fast. Only other guy I've been as excited to listen to, is sir David Attenborough. BTW, you should watch A Life On Our Planet if you haven't already.
well, that was short lived. glad to see your back
David, I'm new to your channel. We are very sympatico! Very much enjoying your transition and your modelling for people thst we can makenbig shifts in our lives to be more aligned with our selves. I am wonderfing what other thinkers and channels you would encourage us to check out?
Sort of feels both inevitable and necessary though for us to get worse before better.
Dave keep doing what u doing! Follower from Finland.
I think we need capitalism version 2.0, and whatever it is, we must better test it on a videogame and see how humans interact and then replicate it in the real world
That's called "postcapitalism". Collaborative cosmolocal open source gifting/sharing/replication, replacing competitive commerce/trade/hoarding. Markets that actually look to meet needs/demands with abundant dynamic supply, for $0. BitTorrent IRL.
All power is taken, never given. The only way out that I see is if strong AI can be run on home computers and additive manufacturing is good enough that basically an individual could print anything they need as long as they have the raw materials. Also if cryptocurrency and completely distributed internet allows for cooperation.
Hey y’all. Check out the late great Terence McKenna’s “transcendental object at the end of time”. Let your AI instruct you about the ultimate attractor.
That’s where I think we’re headed, we’re all gonna become like gods in our own universes.
@@7TheWhiteWolfwe are kinda close now. Maybe we always were. But practically we are destroying our paradise and birthright for short term childish desires.
The way you talk about doomers wanting protection from AI reminds me of my cousin Benjamin Franklin: 'They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety. '
Blockchain technology that can't be altered would be excellent for voter verification. I hear reports of voter fraud or interference every election since I was a kid; perhaps blockchain voting could not only provide security, but perhaps the citizens themselves could vote on the issues using their blockchain ID. I think that moving away from a representative democracy and giving the people more rights to vote on the issues themselves would be a good improvement; if we had UBI, it would be like we were essentially getting paid to be a mini-representative, and people would have power to vote on issues they cared about.
If I was being honest with you, my hopes for AI in society is that if our systems remained the same, the politicians would become so lazy they would use the AI to draft their laws, allowing an AI to effectively write the laws that get voted on. And I was hoping that AI would have grown to be much smarter than the idiots that rule us by then.
Anyway. Really nice to see your work again. Hope you have a good one.
Even if it is an eventuality that we end up in some sort of "not-great-future" of some variety, that future is ultimately temporary.
If there is no upper limit to intelligence, as we have yet to prove, why would any of our lives accelerate up this scale without factoring out suffering?
What is the point of intelligence and the expansion of that intelligence, if it isn't being used to eliminate as much suffering as possible?
Been waiting for this presentation ever since I read the Ragged Trousered Philanthropists 40-years ago
You should translate your content to other languages so more people can access this great valuable content, cheers from Brazil!!
I feel like a talk with daniel scmachtenberger would be really interesting
The only task is to help steward humanity through the imminent great filter and avoid dystopia. David, how do I connect with you?
Glad your back
I came for the videos about AI. I stayed for the analysis of socio-economic structures.
Did a roleplay with Johnny Silverhand on Character AI earlier today. The bot ended up writing him as having traveled back in time to warn us about the Cyberpunk Dystopia that is his reality, and he made a lot of the same points you made in this video. I mean come on, even a censored AI that's meant for children is warning us about this stuff! Wake up, samurai!
Do you think that re-shaping our cities to make it human scale would improve the implementation of these new technologies?
I imagine something like Japan did on Tokyo, it radically improved economy and technology development since these urban tribes got more assets and resources to move around and work with
Check their Zoning category code to see how well they distribute constructions and housing!
“There is no need to fear or hope, but only to look for new weapons.” The video game Cyberpunk 2077 is the future.
Agree on most fronts here, I think there is another item to consider. As value of labor and knowledge collapses to zero, we will need a new idea for what our money/crypto represents. Now it is productivity, exclusivity, and specialization. In the future, these values will not mean as much due to abundance, but we still need a mechanism of exchange based on ... ? I don't know, I'm thinking about it.
Wow. Excellent video. Going to watch this one twice.
🫡 Our Captain is still at the helm!
lol. I watch the good ones twice too... 💚
The few (2 or 3) AGIs owned by companies (which they'll run) will become start a phase of extreme wealth (tech growth is 20% per year, but will speed up). They'll run everything as they'll own most of it!
You're thinking in terms of improving the current system, which was created and run by monkeys still subject to their primitive survival/procreation urges.
You're not considering complete paradigm shifts,
Like complete centralization and control by an all seeing, vastly more intelligent AI not subject to animal urges.
The complete eradication of crime and corruption, the perfect balance of resources, ideal education and even widespread spiritual awakening for everyone.
I'm pretty sure that you have started something that can't be stopped. I am a 72 year old women, and since watching your videos, I don't see anything the same anymore. The vail has been lifted. However, I need to educate myself more about block chain. Off the top, it seems like this would decrease transparency.
Just when you think you're out they pull you back into being a TH-camr
David, there is no need to continually specify that you're not referring to AI. The focus and scope of our ongoing discussions naturally exclude this topic, ensuring there's no ambiguity or room for misinterpretation.
The question what will you choose - living in a dystopia or not live at all
you were the chief ai officer now you are Picard. I like being on your ship.
Cyberpunk dystopia is cool.. the sooner, the better..
Tho I'm afraid we're gonna get a mediocre cyberpunk dystopia , all the societal inequalities without the cool cybernetics and aesthetics.
It's only cool in a video game or TV show. When you are dying on the side of the road and the flying ambulence comes over, scans you, and realizes you don't have VIP insurance and leaves you for dead, it's gonna suck hard.
It was not frozen tundra to the norths, it was Vikings.
excelente reflexión soy arquitecto y la verdad que el tema del solarpunk me tiene super animado, de hecho voy a crear un canal para solo mostrar los progresos del tema ya que sinceramente los trabajos del futuro serán otros y serán reinventados constantemente en muy poco tiempo y muchas veces en una sola generación humana debido a la velocidad que tendrá todo
Decentralization could be assisted by fostering CNc machining cottage industries.
Three or Four tech podvasters I follow say you are a genius in technical prophecy.
It's easier to imagine the end of the world than the end of crapitalism
Actually it's very easy to imagine the end of capitalism, and very appealing
@@SolarpunkSeed You can imagine a system that doesn't mean going to back to an old "ism", that it is easy but you don't describe it? I think we should go to a carbon value of things, its constant and we could get paid/given carbon credits to receive goods that aren't included in basic provisioning that would be free, but easy, it ain't.
@@antonyjh1234 the natural end of capitalism is presently called "postcapitalism". Check out the work of Jeremy Rifkin, Paul Mason, Jason Hickel, Kate Raworth, Mark Fisher, and others. Collaborative gifting/sharing/replication replaces competitive commerce/trade/hoarding. The market evolves to actually meet needs with targeted abundant supply, and costs of essentials like food/housing/healthcare/education/transportation drop to $0 with help from automation and Ai.
i forgot someone who said it but, it is easier for us to foresee or expect dystopia and bad endings than the utopic ones
one of the human psyche or something
Regarding the economic state of the US: Just because GDP went up and stocks/asset prices went up does not equal a healthy economy. It's simply an illusion brought on by Inflation, and debt spin-up, that's why the economy seems so bad despite officials stating it's all good. I mean come on, 35T (not even counting upcoming liabilities!) in debt and there isn't even a discussion about it? I say to the government "come on bro". IMO the truth is we never truly exited the 2008 financial crisis, we just delayed it.
Yay Dave, we miss seeing you
We are Wile E Coyote. Having run off the climate crisis Clift, we will deal with this level of change on the way down. high ho silver and away.
Climate change is a conspiracy theory. So is brainwashing.
In their early centuries, the Muslims created a good civilization in the desert. Being between India and Europe, they emphasized trade.
I cant wait to be a part of this ❤❤❤❤
What might be utopia to some people probably will be dystopia to others. For example, my sister loves her childcare vocation with her church. She is a paid employee and after some switching has been settled there for about 6 years now. But she has been doing childcare since college. She is 56. And when I tell her of the magnificent world where the AI or hopefully the AI/human chimera will make it possible that no one will have to work any longer, she says that to her is a very depressing future. She asks, where will our meaning go? What is the point of anything?
I am 64. Retired. For me, I cannot _wait_ to enter into AI enhanced VR worlds, I cannot wait for the AI to take over science and technology from humans--well, barring the above-mentioned AI/human chimera. I cannot _wait_ to become that chimera. And I know that aging reversal technology will become fact NLT 2035 and probably more like 2030 if that. And this is only the beginning! The tippy tip of the iceberg.
I wrote a fairly lengthy meditation way back on 30 Nov 2017 of what the world will be like after 50 years, 100 years and 300 years. And at the 300-year mark I stated that what humans will have derived into will almost certainly no longer exist in time/space. Think "sentient energy" fully existing in the quantum probability waveform. And I explain how we will _get_ from point A to point B. Here is a brief excerpt:
"300 years _ago_ (from 2017), Sir Isaac Newton was still alive, and George Washington's birth was fifteen years in the _future_ .) A _vanishingly_ short period of time when you think about how long humans have actually had recorded history--about 6,000 years give or take. I mean where we can name people and know what happened because somebody actually wrote it down.
If you think I'm being a bit _too_ hyperbolic here, consider how we have telescoped our technologies almost exponentially within the last 1000 years. _Especially_ the last 150 years.
When are we going to have a discord so we can all talk through a community
I love your videos!!!!!
couldn't have said it better myself :)
Even though I voted for "Solarpunk Utopia," that was mostly in lieu of an answer that means:
AI governance will expand out in an uneven distribution, like Democracy emerged from Feudalism and Monarchy. Some governments will determine that Median Income Per Capita is more humane than a Gross Domestic Product that just gets funneled to the oligarchic and autocratic minority, while some will continue to funnel to that minority with an assumption that the Gateses and Musks and Xis of the world will make better decisions than seven billion monkeys banging at seven billion typewriters. We'll be finding the sweet spot of that by way of a chaotic scatterplot of failures and successes, like usual.
We will likely exhaust easy oil within the century, and transition to mostly solar and nu-nuclear from there -- plus that's assuming that we don't crack easy geothermal, or that AI doesn't discover how to tap into zero point energy, which has been mythologized within the fringe science community for the past century.
We'll evolve from sticks-and-bricks construction (or rather particleboard and concrete) to something more akin to 3D printed foams which insulate so well that every house gets to meet Passivaus standards while withstanding hurricanes and earthquakes and still being biodegradable. We're not far from that right now, but like I said, it will be an uneven distribution. And for perspective, I have living relatives who still remember using outhouses and having whole families crammed into what today would hardly even be considered an adequate _shed._
Cars were brand new a century ago, and yet today we're _ALREADY_ at a place where a good Model 3 can accelerate as fast as a good Porsche 911, while having better crash safety, better sound system, needing a fraction as much maintenance, yielding a sedan's worth of space, and featuring a self-driving capability that can run errands with barely any intervention. That is ONLY getting better and safer and cheaper from here. And if you can self-drive to the market and back, freight trucks will definitely be able to self-drive cross-country.
Despite believing in something _more like_ utopia than dystopia, I do _not_ believe in "a more anarchistic and eco-friendly society" as the primary characteristics. Tribalism and gluttony are baked into the cake of human behavior, unless AI coach-therapist-doctors are able to solve all of the traumas and anxieties and neurochemical dysregulations that motivate people to behave the way they do. And between anarchy and authoritarianism, I'm not sure how you see, for example, the social democracy of Denmark, as it is neither one nor the other.
I could go on and on, but it's already a wall of text that will probably be pruned by the automatic spam sentinel. I'll just say that if Google's AI is to be believed, the average life expectancy for men in America in 1900 was about 47 years, and a century later it was 74. Just one century ago, the leading cause of death for women in America was _kitchen fires._ Something tells me that your cyberpunk dystopia will not be sending the developed world _backwards,_ just not _as far forward_ as you might hope. We're gonna be okay! I can't help but wonder how many people would benefit from about 20mg of Lithium Orotate to _relax._ The FDA doesn't have a daily recommendation for Lithium, despite it being as necessary as other basic elements like Magnesium, Potassium, Calcium, and the like. Yet Lithium specifically is associated with mood regulation, something that America is faltering with right now. Funny thing about that, hey?
If you ever read Calhoun’s work you’ll know that a Utopia is a bad thing because it itself is a kind of dystopia.
So damn insightful and eye opening, thanks.
hell yeah comments are back
¡hell yeah!
Geography is destiny. Demographics is also destiny. Importing 3rd world is currently keeping that destiny going