BTC093: The Debt Spiral Defined w/ James Lavish
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 31 พ.ค. 2024
- Preston Pysh talks with macro expert James Lavish about the imminent debt spiral. They discuss what it is, why it's important, and how people need to think about their investments with things becoming disorderly in Europe.
IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN:
00:00:00 - Intro
00:00:35 - What is a debt spiral and is the US currently experiencing one
00:11:16 - Why are there so many additional treasuries beyond what was expected in the 3rd quarter 2022
00:13:21 - What can the FED do from here
00:18:53 - What is the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) and why's it important
00:24:38 - Europe this winter: What's about to happen
00:30:02 - Zombie Companies
00:35:42 - What are institutional investors waiting for when it comes to Bitcoin
00:49:17 - What's happening in Japan it seems like the treasury market is calmer than before
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- (BTC084) Japanese Yield Curve Control, Oil, & Bitcoin Macro w/ James Lavish: www.theinvestorspodcast.com/b...
- (BTC080) Macro and Bitcoin Education w/ Greg Foss, James Lavish, Jason Sansone, & Sebastian Bunney: www.theinvestorspodcast.com/b...
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I’m Preston Pysh, an entrepreneur, investor, author, and cryptocurrency ₿ proponent. I’m the founder of BuffettsBooks.com and Pylon Holding Company. I have authored and co-authored 🖊️ a number of investment and autobiographical works and also wrote multiple finance and investing-related articles for Forbes from 2016 and 2018. I take great pleasure in taking complex ideas 💡 and making them accessible.
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Hmm. There is a lot of confusion baked into these comparisons.
1. A state is very different to a company. You cannot compare them in this way, because the government does not have a liquidity constraint. They can print the money. They don’t have to pay an interest on the bonds. they chose to do so as a management tool. Even if they didn’t, somebody would buy the bonds, because they are insured and bank deposits are not (see German bunds). This will go on as long as the dollar is the world reserve currency.
2. When the fed buys the bonds, they wire the interest payments back to the treasury. So they can monetize a lot of it.
3. The deficit of the state is what is creating the growth in the public sector. Companies want to earn more each year. Where does the money in aggregate for these profits come from? It can only come from inflation and government deficits.
Where I do agree:
All countries are in the same boat and will monetize the debt. In relative terms they will be relatively stable to one another with the USD as the strongest. But compared to hard assets like BTC, and also gold and real estate, and even stocks, in the long term all currencies will fall a lot. Even more than in the past.
Love Preston's interview style, knowledge etc and the brilliant guests he has on his show inc. James Lavish!
except he has to stop interrupting the speakers , it's annoying
@@easterntechartists To be fair, he doesn't usually.
No one I have listened to on a finance podcast has explained the debt problem so simply and clearly using the credit card debt analogy >>> debt spiral. Thank you! 🙏🏻
This was an awesome conversation Preston - 2 of my top commentators and well worth tuning in!
Great discussion, thank you! Complicated topics, broken down into understandable terms and straight talk. Really appreciate the work on this, and keep up the awesome content!
Haven’t started this yet but I know it’s going to be a banger
Keeping it real. Cant lie out of this one. A true leadership mess!
Great discussion! Thanks!
Hey Preston , thanks for the show ! The content is SO good ! Regards from Poland
There is no free market with ECB and FED
Shocking Preston doesn’t have a minimum 1M subs. Unacceptable
How did they make break through innovations like rail roads trains telephone telegraph automobiles during gold standard ?
Hi Preston awesome show as always. Do you know if it’s Shell or Exxon? Cheers
thank you, James, for helping to breakdown this complex subject into digestible form....what an absolute disaster the world economy is in right now. Im buying Bitcoin and other hard assets as insurance against this fiat Ponzi scheme
Monero is better than Bitcoin
Likewise
@@remsee1608 for privacy yes for store of value and medium of exchange nope 👎
@@adiintel1 Value is determined by demand which is a function of utility as a medium of exchange. Privacy makes Monero a better medium of exchange.
@@remsee1608 walk down the street and ask people have you heard of btc? The chances are yes xmr very few people wouldn't have a clue bitcoin has the 1st market mover advantage plus it never had value until free markets gave it Monterey value
I do like xmr but I don't see it being widely adopted it definitely has utility no arguments there.
actual health care reform (govt allowed to negotiate prices - like every other developed country on earth) would help with those base debt obligations/medicare/medicaid expenses. is it worth the entire system breaking wide open to protect a few well paid executives at pharmaceutical, insurance, and medical device manufacturing companies? we need to disrupt some industries that actually need it. thanks for the convo.
I agree that the trajectory of the debt is unsustainable. But I need to temper something. The high interest rates only affect the NEW debt and the part of the old debt that matured and is being "rollover-ed" at the new rates. Therefore, it buys us more time.
What ethereum dev conversation are they referring to at 40:25?
What were they referring to when they said the ethereum devs don’t know if the merge will work?
They may mean it may not work as intended, not necessarily that it will quit working. Ethereum has changed what it is many times over the years, it's a car, it's a plane, it's a decentralized internet, no it's a centralized network that will pay its owners for owning it while they censor transactions for the government in order to be adopted by wall street and the banking cartel.
@@gplaycount3154 gotcha thanks
This is analogous (albeit on a global scale) to princes of yen. You inflict pain so that there can be stones cast at a system that no longer exists and then you completely change the system.
Italy should slow the boat and speed up concern.
Max was here
If it goes up with a slight change in interest rates. Then it can go down. My god gold bugs are so annoying.
Why no one thought of taking 30 years cheap loans before hikes.
People getting laid off probably won't have much of an effect on supply chain issues. In fact, it will almost definitely improve them after a year or two.
Recession is necessary to reallocate capital and labor. The people laid off during a recession are the least productive of their sector, and when they're ultimately re-employed, they'll end up contributing far more than before.
curious for someone to steel man argument that gov debt is not and should not be likened to household debt... explain to me how it is in fact different please
If people are getting laid off, the commodities should be falling in price because people aren’t buying as much Preston
Debt to GDP is kinda good baseline indication. But it is also hilariously bad. Imagine Walmart comparing it's debt to earnings of it's customers. Or even more accurately, only on it's employees earnings. Like. What? hehe
Guys, Social Security will have the largest COLA increase in 40 years in January probably 6-8%. This will cost a fortune alone. I know, lol, I'm retiring then, so I can collect it, instead of paying into it. How many of me are out there??
Hey Preston what conversation were you referring to at 40:30? Something involving ETH devs?
Welllll the government can loot the coffers…. We can try to smile as the ship sinks
No a country is not the same as Microsoft. False equivalence.
It is not a debt spiral at all. It is a world wide SHORTGE of US treasuries (collateral for dummies). You are a deer in the headlights (clueless). It is hard for "you" to get your head around it.