Turkey In 2023 - An Economy on The Brink?
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 27 ส.ค. 2024
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Turkish voters return to the polls this weekend to choose a president. Before the first round of the election, polls suggested that voters were evenly divided between the two biggest parties. However, Erdogan’s unexpectedly strong first round has put pressure on the Turkish lira and knocked other Turkish assets ahead of this weekend’s runoff vote.
The official annual inflation rate in Turkey was 43.7% as of April. This is actually down from the 80% inflation rate that Turkey saw the prior year. In today's video we ask how will Turkey's election shape its economy?
@MoneyMacro Video - How Erdogan "Saved" Turkey's Economy: • How Erdogan "Saved" Tu...
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Thank you for the video, I shared it on reddit, I have been following you since your analysis on the toppling of Turkish Lira and the channel has been my favorite since then in economical analysis attempts on youtube.
Top G #Data #omg #youtube #Google
Broad Money Supply is the only cause of inflation
Low interest rates were the norm for 12 years and we saw little inflation
So long as you have 2% broad money supply and 1% interest rates you'll only see 2% inflation
that all evidenced from HISTORY !!
Erdogan isn't wrong
I take it you are using _unorthodox/unconventional_ as a euphemism?
i dont know, how you are this nice to share your wisdom/knowledge with us
please keep doing it :)
Patrick! I totally agree with you that Erdogan's (impressive but temporary) economic fixes are increasingly at risk. Thanks for the shoutout. As it so happens, I am just now working on an update video to the one you mentioned.
All the best,
Joeri
You guys should collab
@@rohankishibe8259 The have, in so far as having like a hour+ live chat..
I watched your turkey video. It was fantastic.
Even EE has started learnimg basic economics from your videos. 😂😂
@@kth6736 the knowledge levels between EE and Joeri were ...uneven...somewhat. Should be equalized a bit now xD
Hey Joeri. You probably don't remember me, but I watch a lot if your stuff too, and occasionally comment. I was surprised that you actually replied to my Chinese capital controls comment a month or so ago. Doing great work! You and Paddy (dunno if he uses that form if his name, but it gives me the opportunity to tell 'Muricans that Paddy is the shortened form of Patrick, not Patty (a girl's name, or a burger), so I'm taking it), are my favourite money/finance/economics channels, although I gotta give an honourable mention to the Plain Bagel.
As someone currently living in Turkey (not Turkish), the official inflation figures are a joke. Since October I've seen the price of a bottle of Coke go from 14 lira to 27-30 lira, and since January 400g of beef mince went from low 40s to over 90 lira. These are only 2 of hundreds of examples. I'm glad I don't get paid in lira, but the poor locals are fucked. The only saving grace is my rent is in lira, so I've seen my rent come down about 10% in real money...
Edit - a couple of stray letters from my swipe keyboard and lack of proof reading. I'm sure I missed some other errors too...
"In real money..." LOL at lira not being considered real money. 😂
Ah yes. Coca-Cola. The universal measure of inflation
Same man as a someone (non Turkish) living in Turkey Im blessed enough to be making a living outside of turkey but I feel extremely bad for the locals who live here it’s honestly baffling how fast and fucked up inflation is rising. I especially feel for those who just recently graduated looking for their first jobs. Not only will they start with a shit salary but they’ll most likely be contracted out without having their salaries adjusted for inflation and after years of hard work and study they’ll just end up struggling to even make rent by the end of the year. It’s truly disheartening. Like bro I was eating maxi XL menus at popeyes for 85 TL at the start of the year and now it’s at least 120 TL it’s just fucking wild to see.
@@kth6736 Seriously, is not far from the truth, you cannot consider Turkish Lira money anymore, if someone's offers you a Salary in Turkish Lira, you better be sure you are getting paid LESS each month...🤣🤣🤣
@@migovas1483 but I hear that munimum wage keeps increasing as well. So salaries do increase I guess.
I've been an American working in Turkey for the last 18 months, and prices have tripled since I arrived. I get paid in dollars and lira. I spend the lira for goods and save the dollars. Problem is, as the lira drops, so does my overall paycheck. I will be leaving at the end of June. I actually like Turkey and wish the best for the people and the economy. Unfortunately, it doesn't look good moving forward.
You like a country that hates your country and is incredibly racist and proud of its colonial history and its genocides?
Cool
Why did you agree to be paid in Lira? I wouldn't even understand that if you would have done it a long time ago, during the boom phase of the Turkish economy, but 18 months ago the Lira was already going down the shitter.
Is the Lira portion of your salary adjusted monthly? WhT proportion of your salary was it initially?
GD I wish I had shorted the Lira back in 2012 when I did a risk report on Erdogan for my employer, and was fired for arriving at the assessment he was a HUGE risk and would set fire to the currency. Lesson learned.
Damn 🫣
There is capital controls on lira. How can you short a currency that is not freely traded?
@@souravjaiswal-jr4bj There was not capital controls on the Lira in 2012, IIRC. If I am misspeaking here, then I am happy to be wrong. IIRC Erdogan himself had to institute the capital controls in 2022, or thereabouts.
Lol what kind of cretin sacks the analyst who points to an obvious risk AND opportunity?
His game was clear when the 2014 repressions took place. Since then the world has sat idly by, doing precisely NOTHING about his tyranny. I expect in the next decade or two he'll start his little war to reconquer eastern Europe. He's made it abundantly clear on more than one occasion that he wants his Ottoman empire back. Like Putin wants his Soviet Union back.
@@souravjaiswal-jr4bjmy plan was to borrow lira from a bank and buy a villa on the black sea, repaying in dollars. I have no idea if thats practical. Seemed like a good idea tho
Giving your entire government a 50% raise as a method to counter inflation... is very uh
The fact that Erdogan is still favored to win the election, despite all this is what is interesting to me.
Its hard.
A lot of the religious population isnt very educated so all they see is erdogan owned media. They believe that they will lose freedom to practice their religion if someone else comes into power.
Erdogan also removed a lot of key positions in power with himself. So people feel very threatened by that. A lot of people also beleive that erdogan will turn it around due to them not understanding loan rates vs inflation. Most of his voterbase in the female demographic are hijabi ladies that are below average educated. The male ones are more than average religious.
There’s a lot of ‘church and state’ melting that has happened in the last 20 years while erdogan has been in power.
Turkey will most likely not be ready to move past these issues until it’s popular to criticize and leave islam. And currently you’re in danger if you publicly criticize it, even in the west. Similar to how christianity was 40+ years ago.
Nationalism, I would think.
Maybe because what you hear from western media is not the truth and Turkish people know what they want
Islam
It means the people want Erdogan in power.
The west needs to keep its grubby hands away, the Turkish people will decide the Turkish economy 😎
"Nah, it'll be fine"
- majority of Turkish voters
They're right. They have all the fundamentals.
I've lived most of my life in Turkey and I'm always astonished at how badly researched videos made by foreigners can be. Not so Patrick Boyle. Sir, you have won my trust
Now he has your trust, he will win your heart with his dry humour.
If you want well structured videos the guy on the real turkey channel does great
Who cares? It's all a show.
That applies to every country. As a Russian I've seen a million takes on "real reason of Putin's war with Ukraine". All of them can't be further from the truth, which is really simple, because it's horrible: "He's a complete sociopath, with hyperinflated ego, who wanted a 'quick and easy victory' for his upcoming 2024 elections"
I've seen every stupid take possible: geography, resources, upcoming war with NATO e t c. I've seen some bozos coming as far, as to say it's Ukraine's fault that putin invaded. 😂😂😂
It's so stupid and silly 😂
@@ik2254 As an American, please enlighten me, does he actually have a chance at losing an election?
This is financial advice and I never give financial advice: DONT LEAVE DURING THE BEAR. If you don’t want to invest…learn. If you don’t want to learn…build. If you don’t want to build observe. DO SOMETHING…other than leave. There is so much opportunity here. Take advantage!
Just because there are opportunities in the market doesn’t mean you should go in blindly. To understand the potential factors that contribute to your financial growth, I'll advise you to seek the help of a professional.
Why anyone would invest in Turkey after Erodgan said God told him that inflation would be reduced by lowering interest rates is beyond my understanding.
Is it not written that the divine is famous for its unorthodox financial calls.
Lol
He didn't say that.
It is just that charging interest is worse than having incest with your own mom in Islam.
Imagine thinking having a gold backed currency leads to higher inflation 💀💀
It would have alot of growth potential if it weren't for Erdogan's policies.
As a Zimbabwean i felt that statement 😂😂😂...
Hello my brother of fortune
When a leader invokes religion into economic policy that's the first sign that the economy is going downhill
I don't see a downfall in Turkish economy. It's Western media outlets did
Or maybe you don't know enough about Islamic finance that doesn't deal with interests (usury) and taxes
Currency is not equal to Human Development Index. HDI is basically an indication of whether you are a 3rd world country or 1st world country. Turkey's HDI has increased significantly under Erdogan causing the whole country to be in the first world arena. Western Media will never focus on this, but they'll focus on turkish lira cause that is devaluating.
I would disagree, religion can be extremely beneficial.
Besides, secularism is just some nonsense the west like to prance about because churches would take power away from them
@@KamsiaKarina-tc8gn get some glasses
If Turks want more inflation they know who they should vote for
You?
@@samsonsoturian6013 someone got offeneded
@@omedyie5066 no, I'm just telling you to quit backseat governing in the most assholistic way possible
As we see Turks wants more inflation and poverty 😂
No matter who gets elected it won’t end well
It's amazing how often vote buying works, it happens even in strong democracies all over the world. The other thing that always amazes me is how smart people don't understand monetary policy, my dad has a career of solid business experience but still is extremely angry at the raising of interest rates to control inflation (we're in Canada)
Doesn't work when the inflation is not driven by wage increases
You can't blame most people, schools do not teach economic competence and inflation is almost ignored even if it is talked about with maybe a page to touch up on the subject. Schools post WW2 world wide have made sure to not make their students economically literate because as in the old days if peasants can read then they can find out how hard they are being screwed in the ass
Unfortunately, Economics 101 is now days concided far right hate speech by far too many people.
The problem I have with the current interest rate increases to control inflation is (1) they came way too late, interest rates were too low for too long and (2) some of the inflation is going to happen regardless due to increasing national debt (at least here, not sure about Canada), money printing and the effects of recovering from the government causing massive and long lasting economic damage due to you-know-what related policy. That thing that happened in 2020 that we can't talk about on TH-cam.
So I think we are going to suffer through inflation AND high(ish) interest rates which will clobber business even more than has already happened lately.
Have you considered that your father's disagreement with the interest rate hikes may have more to do with how it affects him, rather than how they affect the economy and Canadians as a whole?(given his career in business)
Excellent video. PATRICK breaks down every detail! Thanks!
Would love to hear your take on the situation in South Africa.
Black politicians (who are pretty much just like those evil dudes in the ussr) spreading jealousy in the hearts of black south-africans towards white south africans
White south africans, the ones with most of the know how and money running from the country.
Everyone in south africa getting f'd by the socialists in the government
I actually chocked in my drink a bit: "80% inflation"... WTF
Voters get what they vote for, especially regarding economic policies. If Turks want inflation, then they know who to vote for to get it!
So do Americans.
@@paulbenedict1289why bring up Americans? Did this fact make you feel inadequate in some way? Were you uncomfortable confronting that reality?
Only the hurt and foolish point to others when criticism is laid upon them
Voters in Türkiye knows very well who to vote. Don't comment with your uneducated guesses bud ;)
@@paulbenedict1289since when did the American dollar fall to 1/20th of its highest value?
@@victorkreig6089 "Only the hurt and foolish point to others when criticism is laid upon them" You defined Turkish oppositions main feature but it's 10x worse
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You can't call interest evil if you agreed to pay it LOL.
It's evil. But the solution is not having an interest based monetary system, and lowering interest rate
@@Omer1996E.C Not having an interest based system - Erdogan is that u?
@@Omer1996E.C evil in islamic beliefs. Not evil any where else
@@ling636 evil or not, this is not my subject. What I want to say is that what erdogan is doing is unislamic, but he's deceiving his people who are poor in Islamic knowledge, since the fall of the ottoman empire. The root cause of his ability to lie to his people is having a long aged secular education
@@ling636 all the abrahamic religions forbid it.
And it worked for them many times, even peasants in Byzantine, Judea, ummayads, and other relevant abrahamic empires had houses by working a little and borrowing in their means, now US kids cannot access higher education without suffering crippling debt and lower credit score, I witnessed a US astronaut in his late 40s still suffering from college debt, this is mental!!!!! Soulless, it takes from the poor and gives to the rich, minimising their chances of financial get away, while peasants and slaves in ottoman era managed to create dynasties and buisness empires without interest.
Thank you for how bad and selfish a policy maker can be in a country. Things need to change fast
We are being an example to world by experiencing dumb ideas
They'll get rewarded again when Erdogan wins the election. Emotion over brain wins most of the time.
World, choose your leaders wisely in every election. Democracies are constantly under attack attempts to be eroded by populist tyrant charlatans
Fast and government are two words that can never follow one another
Bro, get out and vote on Sunday. You're the catalyst for change (and so are all your friends and family). Erdoğan has had his time and fucked it up. I don't know enough about Turkish politics to have a truly informed opinion, but from the little I do know, anything else is worth a try at this stage.
As much as Erdoğan would like to appear Islamic, there isn't anything Islamic about his economic policies. He is calling us Turks to invest in interest based deposit accounts in an attempt to prop up the lira. Nothing Islamic about that Im afraid. It is totally misleading to depict Erdoğanomics as an example of Islamic economic practices. Far from it.
Exactly! Islamic way shouldn't be to reduce interest rates; that encourages borrowing. The correct way is to make them so expensive that nobody wants to borrow.
no Erdogan or anyone can escape todays fiat, borrowing based, capitalism economy. Its a civilizational thing and no country can make it without others
Sharia bans charging interest period
Turkey needs the gold, silver standard and ban on hoarding gold, which is what Islamic finance stipulates rather than the fiat ponzi.
He is a populist dictator who thinks he knows better than all economists. Argentina is a kindred case, Islamic banking has nothing to do with it.
To add to the interest rate policy, right now interest rates are as high as 40-50 percent while policy rate is 8.5. No one even cares or talks about what central bank is announcing. So he couldn’t even lower the interest rates and caused all this.
Erdogan talking about God helping them is both laughable or lamentable. If there is a god, Turkiye was forsaken long ago.
Allah and God are two different beings.
The first one sponsors prostitution, lying, stealing, slavery. The latter doesn't
..... the more you know 😊
Unfortunately it. An entire country is destroyed because of one person's faith. I hope the Turkish people make the right choice and we as Turks get rid of Erdogan.
@@mosyocann
Actually it could also be said an entire country is saved due to his faith.
Given that not benefitting from interest means more chances of heaven for all Turks 🤔
The biggest Ponzi in human history - fiat currency, where there is an income tax and an inflation tax, and governments have all the power
@@kakinator2365 Where did you find out that all Turks are Muslims? Also, as a result of his policies, Muslims are encouraged to pay more interest 🤠
@@mosyocann
When did I say all Turks are Muslims?
Non Muslims benefit too 😎
Madness. What about doing a video on what’s going on in South Africa?
This is what happens when you try to run a country by holy writ rather than by modern economic theory.
Same as Iran - best buds with Turkey
@@davidjma7226no
My favorite finance commenter is doing a video about my country, cannot wait to watch!
MEHREBA
@mipmipmipmipmip usd/try is flat for the last 1,5 year. This must count for something, isn't it?
@@Editnamehere it is MERHABA but close enough :)
@mipmipmipmipmip yeah but we are in that car
@@kaandervis6276 USD/TRY has been flat for 1.5 years? Not in my experience. It was maybe 17:1 approx at the end of last year. Today it's over 20:1. It's anything but flat.
There's an old joke. The oposition doesn't want to win because it would mean they actually have to govern this mess. And nobody wants to inherit someone else's mess.
Patrick, I enjoy your research and delivery as much or more than anyone else in economics. Keep us in the know, and thank you again.
Government financial policy made by God. Sounds like a recipe for success.
Isreal was constantly rebelling from Rome because God wasn't a fan of the Pagan taxes.
Who said it was?
@@Omer1996E.C Prophet Erdogan
@@untitled6391 this is not funny, because what Islam says and erdogan is going, are 2 different things.
Having low interest rate is as bad as having a high interest rate, then why commit a sin of usury and harming the people at the same time
It succeeded many times in the past, it's just the global hegemon don't like others deviating from their economic strategy they set without asking the rest of the world, it's just they cannot invade Turkey like they did with Libya, and Iraq and any government that dared to switch away from the dollar, the west keep learning lessons they failed to learn before, no empire stays forever, not even the Roman empire, not even the ottoman empire, not even the mongol empire, and let's not talk about the chinese empires..
You keep ashaming and downgrading free people when they choose not to deal with you and you cannot do anything because they're powerful, you're eating your heart out just because the potential of BRICS is world shattering to you, Constantinople fell, which is one of the most if not the epitome of western "civilization" (although there is nothing civil about it) Washington ain't special, it's not the chosen one, it will fall, sooner or later, just try to mitigate your losses when it happens so the once bullied don't bully you when you're ill.
I love the use of the word "pivot" for post election policies.
It carries with it an air of authority that "flip-flop" does not.
@@straightfacts5352 Indeed, though an appropriately wielded flip flop can be used to shape character
But we digress...
I have a ₺1000,000 Turkish lira note in my collection as well as ₺500,000, ₺250,000 etc. so they do have form here.
I’ve always wondered how hard of an economic collapse would cause a nation’s people to go back to gold and silver.
ha ha ... where are the Turkish going to get all that "gold and silver" ??? Maybe a genie in a bottle ??
You will just get a lot of stagflation when supply shocks hit.
Why gold silver? Only two ways to expand the economy based on gold silver, mine the country to an environmental disaster or start wars to take others gold. What is better path?
The Turkish government tried that in the 1980s. They assumed that there was millions worth of gold in central Turkey. Meanwhile it resided under olive groves which numerous villages profited from. So “logically” the Turkish government appropriated the land, destroyed the olive groves, mined the area and found less gold than the olive production produced. Just a day in the life east of Europe
By the way, Money & Macro has sent you warmest regards when I told him I am there because of Patrick Boyle the Great :)
Patrick I have no money, no investments but I absolutely enjoy your economic summaries and I think your comments are objective and interesting as all fuck. Good work mate. How good is the internet!
Snap, I don't have two pound coins to rub together, but I'm focused on Patrick for learning and understanding it all .. awesome lessons
Working here for 10 years on a year by year contract. This is the first time I have delayed my contract renewal as I know what ever they offer will loose value come July and then october
you provided great objective information. Thanks
We all know the result ............did months ago
Incredible...
Turkey: it hurt itself in its confusion
The question is how people's purchasing power is changing. Their inflation is not the same here where everybody is salaried and loses purchasing power
Highest quality information on TH-cam. I wish you had daily vids!
Wonderful information ,you are gold !
What do you think about tunisia and the probable default on it's first load this summer ?
At 6:48, you say twelfth, but the captions say twentieth.
Edit: I'm amused by the premise that Turkey is a democracy. Erdogan and his Islamist allies control the (now independent) executive, effectively control the legislature, control the judiciary (thanks to a 'purge and replace' campaign begun circa 2008), and control the military (which was once an alternate center of power with a mandate to overthrow the civil government when certain conditions were met; they don't, anymore, because they've been coopted after the most recent, failed coup attempt). He has been in power for twenty continuous years (since March 2003).
Turkey is about as 'democratic' as Russia.
and I always thought Turkey was a dicKtatorship ...
I am amazed no snarky video has been made about Greece yet.
There was one years back. What's happened recently?
@Samson Soturian the EU Says economy is going well and a lot of election nonsense. I would like to hear his opinion.
This is the new Turkish Lira going through the floor, which replaced the old one at a rate of 1 new = a squajillion old.
Democracy is like a streetcar. When you come to your stop, you get off.
- Erdogan
Thanks!
Thanks!
Well, another excellent vid. You have a great way of presenting a lot of info in a very entertaining way. Thank you very much!!!
Good one
"on the brink"
as if the economy isn't already fucked
Better than wherever you're from
I think Erdogan may want to reconsider his comparison to China as a "success"...
"Spoiler alert - it's not."
Love it - stay awesome sir!
Can you do a video on Rolex prices in recent years and the 100% unavailability of any retail inventory, and how it recently implemented a certified pre-owned strategy that is driving up pre-owned prices in the secondary market. An analysis from someone who understands economics would be very well received, and probably quite popular among the youtube community.
He already covered it in his other videos.
interesting
@@Assterix do you have link?
Rolex ??? get a Timex - they keep on a tickin'
@Patrick Boyle as a Zimbabwean…I liked that spoiler alert 😂
every language seems to have radically different names for what we call a turkey. The Turkish word for a turkey is hindi, which literally means “Indian.” The original word in French, coq d’Inde, meant “rooster of India,” and has since shortened to dinde. These names likely derive from the common misconception that India and the New World were one and the same. In Portuguese, it’s literally a “Peru bird,” and in Malay, it’s called a “Dutch chicken.” This bird, which originates in one region, certainly has globe-trotting names!😂
The Dutch call turkeys 'kalkoen'. No reason to think this is related to any specific country.
In Spanish they're called "Pavo", from latin "Pavus", meaning "Peacock".
In Greek they're called "french birds"
I'm tired of living as a 20-year-old young person living in Turkey, we work under stress every day, it's very sad that foreigners know this and Turks don't know about their economy.
Lol. If he raised interest to raise Lira value instead of devaluing lira than MILLIONS of Turks would be unemployed that's what austerity is. All that just to please foreign investors.
@@skp8748Unemployment is high in Turkey
salaries are low. products are expensive
As a Turkish/American its heart breaking to see my country go down to a point where nothing makes sense anymore.
Which country u talking about
@@zacharygaines2200 China.
I can’t believe there are people will vote for a politician who thinks low interest rates will fix inflation.
Low interest rate purpose is to devaluate Currency, low Currency will attract investment and industrial products will cheaper at export market. Erdogan want turkey become industrial powerhouse, not IMF client. of course economy will balance itself, and inflation will go down gradually.
@@KamsiaKarina-tc8gnany day now right
@@MortVaanderwaal most of people remains votes for Erdogan because inflation remains at tolerate level, not too bad. Low interest attract small business to borrow money at never before low interest. That's why Turkish economy don't collapse, even better, it grows
@@KamsiaKarina-tc8gn Using low interest rates to fight inflation is like throwing petrol to extinguish a fire. Economic fundamentals tell me that low interest rates enable more people to borrow more; more money in the economy chasing a limited supply of goods will raise prices. A lower lira is helpful for Turkey's exporters in the short term, but not good for Turks who buy imported goods like fuel. Nothing like rampant inflation to kill off the competitiveness of your economy and wreck the accumulated savings of older Turks who no longer work. Vote for someone with economic literacy.
@@williamchow7533 Opposition economic literacy is get $300 billions from IMF, funniest thing that's people ever heard. That the reason opposition lost. Turkey get cheap oil from Russia, Azerbaijan, Iraq.
Fantastic video!
Very interesting video. I'd be curious about your thoughts and explanation about how the markets will now cope with the new debt bill which was passed. And how the government will proceed subsequently with funding itself (there's a recent bloomber article "Trillion Dollar Treasury Vacuum" which I would be keen to learn more about the dynamics of.
Most politicians promised the sky and moon, giving out free money whenever they campaign for the highest political post. It's the same in my country -- they will give out cash to the voters just so they will vote them. These voters happily received these freebies not knowing they will suffer worse later. The worst part is these voters are the biggest pools or voters.
100% inflation, Patrick. How does anything new get financed?
What are interest rates like for borrowers? Payday lending rates?? Literally how do you finance anything in that business environment. And the individual citizens of Turkey are surely suffering just as much. This is just sad.
Edit: precious metal-backed currency with depleting reserves. We learn in econ 101 about some forms of ceilings and floors and the effects they have on markets, but this is really complex. The Turkish financial system doesn't make any sense to me.
It's keeping rates low. Smaller example was US, UK, the EU, Japan, etc. keeping rates extreme low and even debasing currency via buying bank loans from banks.
It works via money lending go burrr... doesn't help to save money anymore. And it's better to dump the money for something else as quick as you can to preserve value.
RIP Lira
You are the man Patrick, I couldn't summarize the situation better despite being Turkish. One question though, an important one: what do you think about the theory claiming that globalists want to continue with Erdogan one more term and they will support his economic policy. Thanks in advance for your answer.
The interest rate is already going up for a while in Turkey, central bank's interest rate is just for marketing. Interest rate is much higher both for deposits and credits, over 50%. I expect the same attitude after the elections from the government. The unofficial interest rates will keep increasing to stabilize the currency while central bank's rate might even go even lower. The inflation is mostly result of price-salary spiral and it probably won't stop any time soon. Turkish culture handles higher inflation rates better than lower for its growth and productivity. The salaries almost doubled since last year in USD in one year. High inflation also makes paying the debt back easier.
By the way, making opening foreign currency accounts was not a plan of dollarization. The economy was already dollarized before 2000s but in addition to current problems there was no trust in banks so people would keep all their liquid wealth in gold or USD in safes. The idea was to have people deposit their savings in banks in any way possible, liras, foreign currencies, gold contracts etc. so that capital available in the system would increase.
Most of the economical problems are result of much higher level of corruption, emigration of qualified workforce (especially in health and IT) and more resources being directed to defense spending.
Patrick can you make a video on Iran?
Turkey will be the next Argentina
Increasing interest rate doesn't cure inflation. It is a well studied topic. Just because Feds plays with knobs available to it and it at some point coincides with inflation slow down doesn't mean anything. As you can sea after over a year of rate hikes inflation hasn't been tamed anywhere. We are passed days that rate hike meant lower consumption with abundant credit available to everyone.
It isn't just that, it was also far too late as interest rates were too low for too long. They've dug themselves into a hole that they can't easily get out of with a bump in interest rates.
Debt is also too high and the neoprotectionism plus damage from that thing that happened in 2020 and the government response to it have hobbled the economy. It'll take a while to recover and go back to low inflation no matter what.
I was traveling in Turkey about the same time as this video came out. I was surprised about how expensive it was. It seems to be just as expensive as traveling in a major city in the US. On one trip to the south (Anatolia) I lost track of how many construction cranes I could see out the window of the plane at 18. The cheap money is gushing there. The IST airport is amazing and one of the best I have ever seen.
No country ever loans another country money without major strings attached… often to the detriment of the people and the value of their own money and forfeiture of assets .
that's what I learned too in my international political economy class!
8:33 He should know better. Mansa Musa was the King or Mansa of the Mali Empire. And it is reputed that when he went on pilgrimage to Mecca for the Hajj, he spent so much gold, that he caused inflation in Egypt and the value/purchasing power of gold plummeted.
I don't like turkey so I fully support erdogan. Go on Khalifa make the inflation rate 1000%.
I am Turkish. I would 100% wish a president like Erdogan on my foes also 😬
@@ustadsami That would be the Greeks but I guess they are already f***ed after their sovereign debt crisis in 2007-2008 .
@@ustadsamiwhy?
The marketing vomit they got you to say in that advert is great haha
Called making money.
Thank you, I always love your videos.
Well....I'm for the opposition but I also think "Erdoğan made this bed and now he needs to sleep in it." I wouldn't want all this mess put upon Kırıçdaroğlu's (Imamoğlu's) shoulders.
It's going to be. But if they win they already have emergency contingencies. They might not work immediately but in about 5 years Turkey should be stable again. If they don't win you're looking at total devastation.
Kılıçdaroğlu has very experienced partners in the economy. one of them is Ali Babacan, who was the economy minister at the time when the Turkish economy was at its strongest. In addition, Kılıçdaroğlu found foreign investors worth 300 billion dollars. As Turks, our only wish is for Erdogan to go. easy after
@@mosyocann BTW. While I agree with you. That 300bn isn't from foreign investors. It's the money that has been leaking from Turkey over the last 15 years. Taken by con men, smugglers and crime lords.
That's why he was accused of "going to bring in drug money" by his rival. It's not his drug money, but that was the twist they put on it.
@@Paltheus You are right.
Appreciate your Reports with Valid reasoning, please how can I help you ❓️
So monetary instruments are incapable of making durable significant changes in the long run? Especially when they are used as short term coverups of real problems? Who woulda thunk...
RIP Turkey. You had your chance
Classic Turkey.
I love your videos. I do think besides being a professor and this, you could have a third career as a James Bond villain. This is a complement of the uniqueness of your look and speaking. My second choice would be Elon. LOL
This sounds so much like Argentina I can almost hear that famous tango "Cafetín de Estambul"....
EDIT: He won't. Erdogan won't change his ways, if you follow the Argie example. If he does change, well, that's uncharted territory.
Please do a video about Handelsblatt’s reporting.
12:25 The gauntlet always falls after the election.
(Stay tuned for 2024.) 🤠
Turkey should get them some of that Belt and Road money.
😅
Caution: There is a spoiler alert in this video!
Turkey- on the brink of roasting
Great content as always Patrick! Im working on the same subject focusing on some Turkish stocks. You are an inspiration!
Hey wait a minute! I heard Patrick has a podcast, went to check it out, and it's just the audio from here. Slightly disappointed that there's not a longer, separate podcast. Oh well.
They doubled the interest rate today... 😂
And yet they all drive big cars in Turkey, I don't even see this in Europe
In a year the U.S dollar appreciated by 22% against the Turkish lira. In the same period the U.S dollar appreciated 16.5% versus the Norwegian krone. Why is the krone dropping so hard in value? Norway is a country with vast currency reserves and a huge trade surplus. NOK kept dropping even as oil and gas prices hit record levels after Russias invasion of Ukraine. I can't make sense of it.
Dw if cons get their way and the debt ceiling is not increased, US dollar can join them in the dive!
1:32 the real economic crisis is Turkey is nothing but CORRUPTION. Specifically, “shameless corruption”
Turism would grow if the lira declines in value.
Latest update, the 2-decades long era rule of the Sultan continues. Would he purge his opponents ?
These people know they can make this stop, right? They don't HAVE to vote for this guy. It might not be the greatest thing, especially if you don't like the competition. But it's better than starving, right?
If you have intimate knowledge of Turkey and have Turkish friends, you would know how Generation X and Baby Boomer Turks still have PTSD from the 1980s and 1990s when there was a military coup every 4 or 5 years, when "Beyaz" Turks (upper class, western educated, secular, atheist or Christian Orthodox, well connected, prejudice against rural people and Kurdish ethnicity) ruled the country with impunity, when if you didn't live in a wealthy coastal city you were screwed with little to no public services. They even made fun of the lower middle/working class in the movies. Well since that time, a NEW middle class emerged- and they are NOT going back to those bad old days, no matter what! So keep insulting these people, keep the condescending attitude- you all sound like silly children who do not have a clue about the TRAUMA Turkish people faced before Erdogan.
patrick boyle we want you to do a video on your thoughts of how Bud light, TARGET and LFBTQ effects stock value and what the long term (short term) look when business try to get involved with social issues (and has it ever made $$$ for a brand)
The Koran says its not halal to raise interest rates. Therefore President Erdogan has no choice but to cut interest rates to be halal😂😂😂