Could a new Labour Government Reverse UK Economic Decline?
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 25 ก.ค. 2023
- A look at challenges a new government would face and whether a new government could transform the fortunes of the UK economy.
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► www.economicshelp.org was founded in 2006 by Tejvan Pettinger, who studied PPE at Oxford University and teaches economics. He has published several economics books, including:
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I am not an economist in any way so this is merely an observation of a manual worker everyday bloke. In order for the average person to just achieve 'baseline' economic stability (rent about £1400 a month around here plus all the bills, costs etc) one needs a lot of money. This takes time, effort, energy. Leaving little of these resources left for productivity and growth, both financial and personal. This then can result in a feeling of hopelessness, as after all, it would be incredibly difficult for the average person to economically move up the ladder. This can then result in unhealthy coping mechanisms, junk food for comfort, excessive drinking, smoking etc. (Trust me I know). In my opinion the feeling of hopelessness in the country is increasing, young people saddled with huge debts for education, wheres years ago people had apprenticeships to train (computing, nurse training on secondment for example) increasing even further the financial and morale hill to climb. Of course, every generation has its challenges but we need to deal with the current challenges and in my opinion this current feeling of hopelessness is incredibly destructive.
@@borisj so true. Somehow we need to show more compassion and humanity. Of course, discipline where required but Im sure if the average person felt more positive and had a realistic challenge as opposed to what is currently happening to do many, morale and overall productivity would improve.
About as accurate and well meant as they come in terms of comments.
Where are we moving to? I'll go with you.
@@BRMCaptChaos we shall see. Time will tell I guess.
I pay half of that rent and live in a beautiful cottage in the country side.
Why are you paying 1400?
@@adamlee2550everywhere mate !! I live in Cornwall it costs that here . According to my mates that still live in Burton on Trent ,which is a hell hole .it's about 1100 there .
But yes I agree with everything the op said. It's the feeling of absolute hopelessness.
I'm a carpenter so I'm well inside the top 50% of earners . But it's not enough to buy a house or improve oneself or even go on holiday. Rent and the car to carry me and the tools takes practically all of it.
.
Now with these rate t rises mortgage goes up so rent goes up .
I'm out I'm moving to France or Portugal Britain is finished.
I got half a deposit on a rubbish little flat in England. Might as well take it abroad and buy a god dam farm .
The main problems are low growth, low investment, and low productivity. They were the same problems before covid and brexit.
Finally someone says it. too often on sites supposedly for people with relavent knowledge (like FT) people pretend that somehow brexit caused every problem in the UK, when you try to say its more complex you just get insults and accusations of been a faragist or something.
Yes, so why still haven't recovered from Covid yet.
British economy is now smaller than b4 the independence day when other countries are now bigger.
Why is that?
@@kokojambo4944 "people pretend that somehow brexit caused every problem in the UK" No that's just some bs you came up with. Of course they don't. The FT certainly doesn't. It DID cause a great many problems and unlike most of the others was entirely avoidable and self-inflicted.
While true, it's now "significantly worse" because of Brexit and its only the beginning, which is a surprise to no economist anywhere.
Where does productivity fit in the picture if you watch parliament
They do very little take for ever to get things done.
Most work is done in private sector its up to firms how they
Manage productivity
I moved to France seven years ago and whilst I admit France has its problems what has struck me is the investment in local infrastructure over that time where they have spent tens of millions of euros locally. It is my understanding that all property taxes are retained locally proving communes with large budgets to invest on projects. Perhaps the UK could follow their example?
My mother lives in the Gers, she got one subsidy from the government to help with utilities. She didn't really need it, our government had to give out lots otherwise lots of homeless and dead people. Might be that our bills subsidise French bills as Thatcher sold all those awful public companies for a song, my metro journey subsidised the German public transport system, same reason. Thames water is polluting en masse, subsidising rich Arabs poor poor families, they've only got 17 rolls Royces! I could go on, it's quite rural where my mum lives, there's pretty good levels of employment, the bus service is a joke, but people all have vehicles. Our government doesn't give a damn about people, I think the French at least have a passing interest in their voters! (Even if they are being irrational about living longer means you might have to work longer!)
Many of the French infrastructure projects are directly or indirectly dependent on EU funding. Until quite recently France was a net gainer from the EU, and so some of its infrastructure investment was dependent on monies from Germany, the Netherlands and the UK.
I've lived in France for 5 years and I completely agree with you. The roads are great, cost of living is reasonable, housing (outside of Paris) is affordable and the healthcare is insanely good (not to mention workers rights are great aswell). I can't believe it when I look around and people are retiring at 62, looking pretty damn healthy, with money in their pocket AND the economy isn't crumbling... We went very wrong somewhere in the late 80's and again in the 2010's and I think it's something we may never recover from...
@@markaxworthy2508 France was almost always a net contributor, for example in the past 19 years each year with at least 10B euros.
@@TrafficJamForever That doesn't contradict what I wrote. The EEC/EU is now nearly 70 years old. For some 50 of those years France was a net recipient of EU money, despite having the second largest economy for much of that time.
Interestingly, French public opinion shifted from pro-Europe to Euroscepticism at about the time France started to pay more into the EU than it got out. The French were sometimes even more Eurosceptic than the British. The difference is that the French public have been kept away from the ballot box on the issue.
Sadly with each passing day we can see the impact this awful policy has had on the UK. Tied up in red tape and tariffs with lower GDP than before the pandemic whilst the others in the G7, including Italy, are above. The lower GDP means we do not have the headroom to pay our way in the world and must resort to borrowing.Whilst there are rich people in the UK; a great many of us are poor and now we are poorer still. What steps can we take to generate more income during quantitative adjustment?
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I definitely share your sentiment about these firms. When I was starting out, I checked out a couple of freelance investors online, so you could do the same. I personally work with “Colleen Janie Towe”, and she's is widely recognized for her proficiency and expertise in the financial market. With a comprehensive knowledge of portfolio diversification, she is acknowledged as an authority in this field.
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Our problem is corporate greed and reliance on cheap immigrant labor.
Can't have a productive workforce when work pays so poorly even in skilled areas. One friend an Engineer got paid more for driving a tractor in Australia, the interview consisted of a phone call, and one carpenter friend got paid more in New Zealand with the ability to save and enjoy his social life, in the UK he said he has to decide between which one, and me, offered double salary working for an American company, or go to Vietnam save 75% of my salary.
If we want to fix productivity, employers need to stop being greedy and pay more and politicians need to ensure we have public ownership 50% in utilities and energy to avoid rip-offs.
With a higher-paying workforce, I bet you many wouldn't be doing extended sick leave, the brightest and hardest working would stay, there would be less welfare and businesses ironically would be making more money due to greater disposable incomes.
The depressing conclusion I come too, we apparently have the 8th largest economy globally yet the pay is barely in the top 40. Ask yourself WHY and WHOM is benefiting. Wealth is being funneled into shareholders and UK non-nationals. What's the point in being the 8th largest global economy if you're own people are serfs.
I'm not even a socialist, a conservative at heart but we have something rotten and it's depressing.
Well said!!!
And immigrant would benefit their own countries if Europe/uk stop giving welfare and support them to go back
you spoke a whole load of vitriol
@@c3realK1ll4h And you offered nothing
Excellent summaries. Well researched. Great charts. I am surprised you don't have more subscribers.
He’s getting there!
Can we stop the UK decline? Not iff slippery starmer gets into number 10 we can't, I can't believe there is so many dim people in the UK, willing to vote for the liebour party.
As a nurse for 10yrs I’m now retaining an a part time basis to be a construction engineer I’m doing this for two reason. 1. I can see government squeezing public wages rather harsh for the foreseeable future, having to strike every few years for 2-3% pay rises. 2. Moving up in rank in the NHS is hard, waiting for someone to retire or go off with Ill health, but constantly burning the candle at both ends and the middle to meet unrealistic targets and left burnt out and deflated
Good for you.
We need more construction workers well done
Great video - keep it up 👍
I’m 73 years old, still work full time as a multi-skilled engineer. What incentive does the government offer for people like me? NONE! Yet the government bleats on and on about trying to get the over 50’s back into work. If you are 50+ and can afford it good for you, they want you in work so they can tax you more - why do it?
@MyLazySundae Employment is not just about money. It boosts self esteem and makes you feel a part of society. I too have been unemployed 3 times since 1966. It is demoralising, I know, but I was determined not to let the B’s grind me down and found other work. I moved to jobs when there was nothing where I lived. I hope you get fixed up with work soon and enjoy life.
@@arthurdixon5890 I also enjoy being in work. I could retire now but I like going to work, it keeps me social banter at work, gives me a routine and something to do! In Britain if you are prepared to move to where a job is you have no excuse not to be in work, in some areas if you already live there, there is no excuse for sponging off the state at all, as there is so much work! Most parts of the SE
@@voice.of.reason I’m 74 now and still work full time. It’s all a part of the rich tapestry of life. Enjoy yours.
Great video, future looking and more positive than your usual
I’ll answer for you all: no
Would you do a video about the various asset classes as a way of escaping the combination of high prices and potential recession? I'm currently cash heavy but have plenty of precious metals and other commodities. Not sure whether to buy Bonds and if so, which time frame? Any ideas what would be better for what potential economic outcome?
Thanks, Tejvan. I'd like to think a Labour government would focus on more social welfare with the aim of maximising economic outcomes for the majority even if that level of output required a range of subsidising measures to the point where long run costs were well above the (tax) revenue of organisations like the NHS in the public realm - this approach may reverse the problems of chronic ill health literally reducing the supply of labour. Heavily subsidised industries will also lead to a dependency culture and Labour won't take investment risks with public funds as they'll be pilloried by the Murdock press. But I fear that the UK is so broken that remedies are beyond any one political philosophy or credo to fix - neoliberalism has created a baked-in inequity that cannot be fixed .
"I'd like to think a Labour government would focus on more social welfare" Why would you think that since they just dropped all their social welfare policies?
I would like to think this too but it is highly unlikely given Blair, brown, mandleson are still pulling the strings in the background. Sorry.
Exactly. The Murdoch press and angertainment media is a virulent Democratic-Cancer inflicted on Australia initially and now infecting the UK and the US. Non-conservative parties ("leftards") always try to be a small target in the lead-up to elections and so, if they ever get elected, never achieve what is really necessary to fix up all the conservative-caused problems.
Só tem um problema, os impostos que vão cair sobre vocês vai enorme
You definitely have my sub. This content is next level. For me cannafarm ltd was the turning point. Please keep doing what you do and keep being you, love it.
Could we double check the graph at 5:10? Looks to me like the opposite.
Yes, you would have thought that in recent months, the percentage of those with Brexit regret would be significantly MORE than those without Brexit regret, and increasingly so (rather than LESS, as the graph indicates). This would agree with the most recent reports (e.g., Statista's 2023 Brexit Poll, published in January 2024).... Typo?😯
Fixing housing would be one of the best interventions for solving these issues. It's not easy to move around for work due to difficulties obtaining accommodation and we are spending so much of taxpayers money on landlords pensions. Such a crazy way of housing people when the money could be going back to the state for further investment.
Yeah just think about your comment. Spending so much money on landlords pensions. That's because when labour was last in power Gordon brown raided private pensions pots and crashed the private pensions market so people had little left to retire on. They invested in property. That's point 1
Point 2. Over half of uk landlords only have the 1 property. Therefore that is half of landlords who need it for retirement which means without it the state picks up the bill anyways in benefits and care home fees.
You need to think harder next time. 😂
The housing crisis is intentional, the aristocracy wants us to own nothing and be happy (neo feudalism) by their own admission so don't expect any bought and paid for politician to fix that.
@@robertjones2053
Your reply is incorrect. You could look at a fact checker, eg:
"FactCheck Rating: 4 (How ratings work)
Verdict
The nation's pensions are in a state - though not so bad as is sometimes imagined. And Gordon Brown's 1997 budget did take some money out of the pension system.
But to suggest that he 'comprehensively, single-handedly destroyed' the nations pensions is an absurd exaggeration.
It's particularly ironic that a Conservative chancellor also delivered a smaller but very similar blow to the pension system in 1993."
The main problem is making property ownership so central to the economy that when it eventually saturates you end up in the mess we are now. This has been true since the beginning. Politicians of both main shades do not want to confront it because it would be electoral suicide. Even though it is a political choice, let us leave it until the market is stagnant - the free market did it, nothing to do with us...
Even as a landlord myself I favour public housing to eat into that wasteful housing benefit.
@@stephengreen2626
The housing benefit tax hoover has been an economic disgrace for years. If you are unemployed you get ~£300 per month. Your landlord gets around £800. Neither of you are working, but at least one is looking.
Superb commentary. Logical, reasonable and understandable.
I'm not sure the effects of covid policy are fully represented, in what is a version of "The Truman Show" productivity can be attitude driven, we seem to have lost the plot and have become risk averse.
I disagree about housing adjustment, a falling price vs interest rates are devestating for first time buyers and low equity owners I.e. working people and won't help renters at all. This will play out exponentially on productivity through lack of prospects and hope.
04:59 missing Australia as it was often advertised as decent deal. :)
Really been enjoying your videos lately. Just a quick comment on the "sugar tax". As someone knows a little about the implementation of this policy, it was never meant to generate tax revenues. SDIL was only meant to reduce the sugar in fizzy drinks at the manufacturing level. It remains in place to ensure companies don't increase the amount of sugar. It should bring in next to nothing, it's a behavioural change thing.
@@dc6807 The tax does effectively remove a certain amount of sugar in all fizzy drinks, without banning it.
Many manufacturers have reformulated their recipes to lower the amount of sugar in their drinks to avoid the tax (which was the intention of the tax). There was a little bit of a stink about it in Scotland because it changed the taste of Irn Bru, which had one of the highest sugar contents.
If manufacturers increased the sugar levels again they would have to pay this high rate of tax which would mean an increase in the unit price for consumers.
@@thomascunliffe4758yeah and I am sueing the goverment when we get cancer from the sweeteners they are forcing on us. The latest thing is that sugar is better for you as the consumption of these drinks has not gone down as just having to many dodgy sweeteners instead. 😂
Sweeteners give you cancer. Give me sugar any time
Hwo about just drinking water and change the VAT rate on anything that isn't healthy eating?
@@adamlee2550 because there is no such thing as healthy eating. Our bodies need everything. Fat and sugar. It's about potion control and a balanced diet! Eat less.
Any headline title ending with a question mark can be answered with the word “No”
You mentioned poor productivity a couple of times. But given that uk's economy is 80% service. I wonder if better productivity, eg serving coffees; cutting hair etc, matters much, other than in the margin.
I'd like you to do a programme on productivity in the service industries, showing how this will let us catch up with German manufacturing industry.
high house price and the cost of living are seriously affecting the country''s ability to be "productive". Its to the point where it is too expensive to work in a lot of places, London being the extreme example.
@@Alex-mu4ue we don't invest in training or capital infrastructure you can improve productivity just by updating and making the apprenticeship scheme work or a subsidy to farmers to convert say fruit farms to have a subsidy to buy fruit harvesting machines (uk built only).
For housing get some architects together and design a kit house that can be made in a factory to the latest energy standards that would be guaranteed for 50 years and have a huge rollout of starter homes. why does everything have to be double walled brick
The examples you pick seem contrary to your point about the economy being 80% services. It's less coffee shops and hairdressers, more financial/technical/creative services that are our specialty and bring in a lot of that 80%. Think more along the lines of investment into R&D for effective AI solutions for global corporations. That said, training and equipment investments are very widely applicable, whether at the coffee shop or at the bank that financed it.
@@Alex-mu4ueit is not too expensive to work. Benefits are too genours. My wife works in a factory and the amount of people who say no to overtime because it affects there UC and housing benefit is a lot. 1 guy was like 12 hr night shift for 50 more than if I was a sleep. Who would work when benefits give you everything you could ever want. What does someone on benefits not have vs an average worker?
When it takes a UK worker 5 days to do what a Dutch man can do in 3 and a French in 4, it doesn 't really matter if he produces a physical object or renders a service.
Good topic
Not sure I agree with everything here. But one thing is certain, the UK is broken. Borrowing very high, poor economic growth, poor public services (which I doubt throwing money will resolve), try using the "services" of, for example, Office of Public Guardian, Passport office, Probate Registry, NHS etc. I very much doubt a Labour government would have a solution, or any other UK political part for that matter. Difficult times ahead.
I’m grateful to the UK and its democracy for showing me the way - I’m a saddened Aussie whom the UK helped figure out the disaster that Australia was heading towards. Long story short, I moved out of Oz 🇦🇺 just in time… and hope to heaven that my fellow Aussies will survive what awaits them. The incredible political/democratic stupidity in both countries albeit different in ideas lead to the same damaging economic parallels - it might look like a lot of immigrants will shore up property markets or that Australia’s importing a lot of skilled professionals, but what most Aussies don’t know is that most skilled first generation Australians leave Australia for greener pastures such as the UAE, Singapore, China, Qatar, Saudi Arabia …and some fortunate ones even manage to settle in the US, never to return. Ditto for UK citizens with in-demand skills/experience - they leave the UK in droves. This economic brain-drain is something Canada and NZ have been dealing with for a while …the UK and Australia have finally joined the losers’ club after years of preparation.
"You vil still own nasing and be harppy." As long as Klaus is pulling the strings...
It seems like a good idea to me, owe security is a bit sketchy I think. With council staff getting the spending wrong, and on the council spending; poverties a genre apparently, when the DWP system is working. With the new way the job centre works, it should ease DWP.
A grim protrait of the economic situation. Causes? Brexit, aging population, Covid debt burden, war in Ukraine with soaring impact on energy cost. In Continental Europe we have all this except Brexit-related drawbacks. How to reverse the vicious circle? Lower taxes by streamlining the public spending, increase investment, keep salaries reasonable (tighten your belt), reduce public government corruption. Won't be easy but it's the only way.
You forgot the malaise caused by unfettered, unchecked immigration as well
“Streamlining public services” they’ve already been cut to the bone there isn’t anything left to streamline. Public services need massive investment, so does infrastructure and healthcare. The government simply needs to spend more money, but not to increase profits of the private sector
Thanks for tackling fiscal policy and related issues.
I still don't understand why the government didn't step in and rescue that battery company. They are now trying to get TATA to build one in the UK and to get they they have to compete against the EU.
The model of governments buying shares in a company as a way of subsidising it's development works vey well.. This is how Taiwan went from a poor agrarian economy to a world heavy weight in a decade, or two.
The private sector has under invested in capital for many years. Stimulus is way overdue.
I don't think investing in the public sector for its low inflation value is enough. It will not build a 21st Century economy.
A cautious Starmer is not the man for the hour, sadly he is a good caretaker, not an inspiring leader to break new ground.
Yes, costing policies is sensible starting point.
Thanks for the thought provoking video.
Really enjoying your new vids where your looking at the bigger picture rather than just blaming everything on Brexit. There is another good vid I just started watching ' Why no one wants to live in Europe's richest country'. I seen that only 10% of UK houses are affordable by the middle class, the problem seems to be with the whole of the West.
one word, No, its all about trickle down economics
if you change from trickle down to demand side bottom up middle out then yes
The uk as a nation does not have agency here. It just has to take the hits and hope America and EU deal with the problems.
Increasing productivity is not just about seed money for green projects. It needs to go much further. Better deals for workers, better pay, better working conditions, much better health care, much better connectivity with public transport, much better possibilities of advancement in jobs, appreciation for worker led innovations in the work place. Much better education. None of this is cosmetic and all of this requires an active government that does not leave everything to the markets. It will need many little, carefully planned steps for a happier, healthier work force which in turn, will improve productivity.
The productivity isn't helped by big cooperation who are happy to turm large profits, pay out large bonuses to their directors and bord members, pay out large sums to share holders. While quit happy not reinvest in the company or staff that are working down the bottom of the company. They are also happy to pay people minimum wadge and if they aske for a pay rise or are doing well rather then getting a pay rise or bonus there being given more hours to make more money. The uk hospitality sector to a prime example. Also they give people a salary them make then work twice the amount of hours meaning that many people running some areas are actually below minimum wadge. And as for the tax problem that's not helped by the fact that the government hasn't been able to evolve so that company with less property are actually making more the some large company's with lot of property. Faver more the death of the high streat and shopping centre having more empty stores isn't helping unemployment or tax revenues.
I’ll health is caused by our dysfunctional food system. We have been sold a low fat pie for decades and now it’s coming home to roost.
The planet cannot support the growth paradigm. I’d like to hear more discussion about the doughnut model.🙏
Hey, when will you talk about the real company Cannafarm Ltd that brings profit?
A new Government could but certainly not Labour. We haven't the political choice to vote our way out of the mire.
@ nickworley1000 . So Which party do you think is capable of revitalise the economy, if not labour?
Every economics school of thought runs its course, eventually. So is Thatcherism.
Spoken like a disaffected Tory,Labour is our only chance and deep down you know it.
The system is the issue, sure voting a political party is currently the only way to change it but likelihood is a joke.
A lettuce head is better than a Tory government. This was proven by science.
The economic system in the UK works to harvest wealth, not to invest in infrastrucute or create wealth. More likely to decline further as economic corruption is difficult to reverse.
All headlines ending in a question mark can be answered with a “No”
Post war boom was also a demographic boom. Building a lot of public housing leads to growth if people are breeding. But it won’t if they aren’t.
Long term sick rise is also due to government policy which penalised short term sick. Not necessarily a reflection of actual increase in ill health.
Star er is a conservative and it's utterly depressing that Labour has completely moved away from their social democratic roots
More of the same from Labour wont change our situation . More taxation will make us all poor as the wealth creators will go elsewhere for lower tax rates. Currently we punish higher earner just for being successful and until that changes growth will be stunted! Lower VAT would make Britain the lowest VAT level in Europe cut inflation as it would lower the cost of products and services making them more affordable whilst stimulating growth in the economy. The EU has just the same problems as Britain because we have all been reliant on imported energy especially oil and gas. Thats why using more of our own would lower the price and make us more competitive whilst keeping down imports! Its time politicians put Britains first and stopped cow towing to the globalists who mainly want to import cheep Chinese products sold at a vast mark up depriving Britain of the jobs and industry we badly need if we are to stay a wealthy country!
25% corporation tax. I am surprised all the companies didnt flee.
Labour got us into this mess in the first place. Alastair Darling was chancellor when they bailed out the Banks.
The Tories got on the Austerity bandwagon and stifled growth.
Isn't it time we started looking at true alternatives like the Green party?
Rents in towns have risen but rents in the countryside have remained static or even slightly fallen. People wish to live in towns for work. As many shops and offices are empty why not convert these into accommodation. This will avoid building on productive agricultural land as is happening around the country today
Are cryptocurrency and business incompatible? I think youre not keeping up with the news. While you thought it was impossible, some enthusiasts from Cannafarm Ltd integrated cryptocurrency into the production of medical cannabis. What do you say now?
Hope Australia''s Labor can assit provide you for bring Ecomomy High contact to our Prime Minister
I think the national debt being 100% (much of it index linked) of GDP and repayments of £110 billion PA shows the UK is existing on borrowed money (which cannot be sustained) and will have to be payed back.
Only 25pc of this is borrowed from abroad and 50pc is owned by UK pension funds and the Bank of England
Borrowed money does not have to be paid back as this is an asset to the people that hold it that they often want to keep. They want the regular payments of interest, not repayment.
Public sector "investment" never leads to turning a quid as its impossible for dumb politicians to pick who to back. The fair way, which also helps all business be more competitive in export markets, is to abolish business rates altogether and let the market take its course in picking winners from amongst the upsurge in new start ups and re-locations into the UK of foreign manufacturing.
At the moment we are a whole years tax in dept. l can't see
how any party can change things weather labour torys or
Reform get into power
@@johnwhitcher4761 There is an answer but the public don't want to hear it. The last lot of austerity was nowhere near harsh enough to start the process of paying back debt
So who is going to make up the taxes lost from no business rates?
Let me guess rich people who already pay 75% of all taxes 😂
No. Why do you jump to conclusions? How about we stop overseas aid or housing migrants or subsidising art and sport or supporting Ukraine when is a US arranged proxy war? We could also stop MPs getting a full index linked pension after just 2 years work@@pabloes588
@@pabloes588 The majority of people expect the government to find a way out of our problems. "Investment" (which is usually Labours answer) will simply result in spending on social crap without any possibility of a profit. That is the choice I am pointing out. I'm not in favour of tax rises but Britain has historically low direct taxes compared to the 1960's and 70's.
The economy cannot grow without being stimulated (eg by extra government spending (a Labour approach) or possibly by tax cuts (a Conservative approach)).
But until inflation is under control, stimulating the economy will just push up inflation.
If interest rates came down today by about 2%, then money would still be tight enough to stop most discretionary spending by mortgage holders and inflation would still come down.
But the Bank of England's Monetary Policy won't lower interest rates until they see inflation falling significantly - even though the committee members know that there is a delay of perhaps 18 months to two years for increases in interest rate to cause inflation to fall.
Months ago, they had already increased interest rate by enough to slow future inflation down and eventually inflation will fall as a result of previous increases in interest rates.
Unnecessarily high interest rates are choking the economy and will cause a housing crash to add to all our other problems with the economy.
Unless inflation falls a lot in the next couple of months (unlikely), interest rates will not be lowered.
The economy will just spiral downwards until interest rates are lowered.
So it doesn't matter whether Labour or the Conservatives are in power, they won't be able to do anything to stimualte the economy that will work until inflation has reduced.
Did you miss the memo, Labour are the new austerity party.
Starmers words not mine.
We are doomed doomed I tell you, Plus we haven’t seen the books yet, it’s scary,
Brazil and Argentina: welcome to the club mate.
Lmao those countries are in a whole other level of trouble, uk's issues are nothing compared to them.
I highly doubt it.
On the housing issue:
How many more times do the British public have to vote for lower immigration as a policy before we will actually see a reduction in the rate of immigration?
Perhaps we need to tell the boomers that they were sold a false bill of goods and stop importing low skill workers en masse to bump up the figures in the short term.
How many young people would go to work if they saw that they were doing it to support their oldest family members?
Stop letting people lean on the state!
But a labour government would encourage this.
In 5 years we will be scratching our heads asking why the problems have gotten worse.
Im engaged to a foreigner who came to the UK to work for the NHS during the pandemic and even she agrees with me that the immigration is unsustainable.
On the issue of there not being enough young workers that are ethnically British:
We dont encourage young people to take on responsibilities and fulfil the roles that yhe older generations have been responsible for.
I can no longer spend time with my friends because as I am having children, getting married and buying a fixer-upper home to get on the ladder, they are smoking weed, working part time jobs and splitting rent in a big house so they can party into their 30s.
We all know that Labour will only be elected out of voter apathy on the right and in the middle.
The tories are in no way conservative.
Only the communists are honest about what they want for the cpuntry, everyone else is grifting.
Government needs more authority over local councils to fix housing crisis. id recommend huge developments of luxury high rises for cities myself. as the bottom line is, increase overall supply overall prices will eventually come down.
I remember when labour got put out of number 10 the last time! The told the torys as they went laughing out the door heres the keys but there is no money left hahaha! So dont expect any miracle from labour! Or the tories! The uk needs proportional representation!! Fast!
We need to turn our backs on GDP growth as our target and focus on sustainability (including economic sustainability) and wellbeing.
...and out best chance of that is a traffic light coalition with the parties agreeing to focus on sustainability and wellbeing, and standing the candidate most likely to win in each constituency. They won't do it, though, as Labour believes it can get in just by by being Conservatives-lite and not scaring the horses.
The UK needs total legislative and political change for anything to work
Arch Brexiteer Daniel Hannah moaning about Britain's woes in The Telegraph is a bit rich. For me this analysis is spot on and clearly shows why Labour must be bold from day one. If they aren't they will just reinforce Britain's problems and achieve nothing. The Tories not only wasted 14 years but have made things even worse.
I’m curious how many people will simply leave if Labour abolishes no-dom or dramatically changes CGT
no
next video
Simple answer is no but the tories have nothing to offer equally ! Sadly .
Inflation is coming down now. Do you think Central Bank would further increase interest rates?
They probably will, though whether it is a good idea is another matter
I've got no confidence in Starmer but we are currently crippled with this zombie government. Surely it can't get worse?
Yep it can. Labour are a farce. Starmer can decide what he actually stands for but is desperately trying not to say anything if it may put people off. The trouble is that the tories are just lost. They don’t have a leader and are generally inept.
Our man in this video has reiterated exactly what I’ve been saying for ages. Build council houses. Rent is competition to mortgages and council houses are competition for rent.
The Government should be building new large towns in the midlands and the rail link to london and the north, borrowing does that would be a good use of borrowing rather than trying to borrow just to keep the lights on.
The big trouble it's that we can't go to work or live in Europe anymore, that's a big problem before we could just jump on train from King's Cross directly to Paris or anywhere, thanks to Nigel Farage, wanted his country back, have it now all the Brexiter now suffering
The UK is in Europe.
It's not low tax revenues, it is the highest ever!
The only way to reverse the decline is to reverse immigration. Mass immigration shows on paper a short term improvement but in the long term it becomes a drain on the country. The failed policy of mass immigration needs to end. Mass deportations need to happen. The evidence is becoming clear from country after country that mass immigration has failed. The breakdown of social cohesion in society causes more damage. When mass immigration pushes wages down, prices up, and the cost somewhere to live out of the reach of an ordinary worker you are in trouble. A few benefit and get rich, the rich get their cheap labour while everybody else gets poorer.
I agree.
You’d need to increase the birth rate and labour participation to do that sustainably.
@@will506 Pay people to have children like they do in Hungary where they have turned the birth rate around. Stop advertising jobs abroad only and importorting labour then labour participation among Brits will increase dramatically. You can't apply for a job that is never advertised.
funneling £23B to landlords... Gosh... You could build more than 100k homes per year with £23B...k
Labour shortages mean throwing more money at the problem won't produce linear results
At the same time, as a landlord I must say not even 1 of my tenants gets their entire rent covered by the government. In my area the maximum government support is £85 a week. That won't get you a nice place where I live. It only covers a tiny flat or a nice bedsit
1 out of 3 children in the uk has an absent father.
Short answer is NO
Who is concerned with that stuff , Rolls Royce is up over 200% , M&S up 100% and many other British companies up 20-30 % , 2023 has been a great year.
Sorry to say. No matter which party, UK Economy would go nowhere but down. Political parties are literally "political" and knows little and care nothing about economy. Their aim is simple; stay in power and to be re-elected. Period.
Had hoped you were going to find the magic bullet. I am optimistic by nature but l cannot see much hope unless and until we replace FPTP. Let’s say Labour does build a lot more social housing for rent. Guess what the Tories would promise. People will take fright at increased Inheritance Tax even if it dies not affect them. All the solutions are long term- house building requires skills which are not there, more investments means reversing Brexit etc etc
Tte UK needs to ditch 20 million people for a start!
NO same back side
You're better than Osborne, Hammond, Javid, Sunak, Zahawi, Kwarteng, and Hunt put together.
NIMBY busting has to be priority number one.
What I have observed is that any winners reluctance to rejòin the E.U ,.I am a permanent resident in Spain & have seen the benefits of being in the E.U , even more surprising is that a hugh % want Russia to join the E.U !
My advice is work out how the system you operate in functions & how to game it legally…don’t waste your energy trying to protest or change it..retired at 46 👍
All the countries where growth is happening they are building stuff. But you’re not allowed to build anything in Britain, everyone somewhere has a right to view a field of wheat.
The answer to your question , is a big fat NO !
i doubt a new govt will make any difference
In terms of the country’s lll health point and the explosion since 2019 to 500,000 it seems the word on the street and I’ve heard so many people saying this is to simply go and get diagnosed for ADHD or bipolar etc which apparently is way to easy to do. (Many new private companies only too happy to take a few hundred £ and if you answer 5 simple questions correctly give you the ticket) A lifetime ticket to never need to work again. Simply wrong. I feel so sorry for the genuinely disabled people.
Wow, half the comment section spoiled by spam for a firm no one will now use for its sad and irritating spamming.
too many property speculators have destroyed the incentive to work for the younger generations.
it cant be reversed now 20 years too late.
People have short memories,last time labour were in ,the country went into severe debt ,they employed more civil servants,they allowed uk industry to be sold off along with the tories and I’ve no doubt labour will suck up to EU
The world paradigm is coming to an end. Britain is just at the front of the line. All other nations will follow. Everyone will be living smaller and poorer. This is not a passing event. This is the new normal. Get used to it. Everyone can now eat cake.
Agreed
You will never get the growth of the post war years, the demographics of Britain are getting older and workforce will start to get smaller than it is now.
But then remember, Labour do not carry out there electoral promises
No!
We are officially Little Britain
We need a government focused on building the future rather than acting like twats and constantly putting out fires. We're scraping the barrel when it comes to MPs
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If the UK economy collapsed (which it might) you’ll have more problems on your hands then trying to sell gold. You’ll likely be at the total collapse of civility and law. 🎉
Not feeling the bwunt myself.... If you can't beat em...join em..
Uk needs proportional representation
Just bloody bring as back into europe
@3min 15sec Tejvan thanks for your interesting videos but you say interest rates are high making the cost of government borrowing soar. You and most other commentators (you are not alone) really do need to learn the basics of Modern Monetary Theory as the truth is actually quite different.
The British government is a currency issuer and does not borrow the British pound from anyone, the Bank of England simply issues new zero cost currency to implement the government's spending by marking up the appropriate account balances of those commercial banks that have been authorised to spend the government's money whether that is for pensions or public works. Government or Treasury bonds and similar securities are sold to commercial banks and other financial institutions not to borrow money on behalf of the government but to drain excess reserves from the British banking system so as to maintain the targeted cash rate of interest - otherwise the cash rate would trend to zero.
The British government's so called debt is not actually debt that must be repaid but is instead a tally of the currency (pounds) the British government has spent into the economy and not taxed back and is actually a surplus for the private sector which is essential if there is to be economic growth especially if populations are also increasing and if there are currency 'drains' present arising from trade or current account deficits with the rest of the world and also increased savings by predominantly the most wealthy.
Any interest charge on maturing government bonds are similarly met thorough zero cost currency issuance by the Bank of England.
British government taxation performs the role of creating economic space for the government's spending by liberating real resources from the private sector and avoids a doubling up of demand for the same real resources such as labour by both the private and government sector. It is really the sequence of events that is most important - the government first spends money into existence creating economic activity in both the public and private sector and then a portion of that spending is taxed back to liberate some of those real resources for the government's (public's) purposes.
The most desirable fiscal position for the British government and in fact for most national governments is not the balanced budget position, or even worse to achieve surpluses in the false belief that this reduces debts (conservative Neo-classical austerity economics), but is the fiscal position or deficit that results in genuinely full employment by the combined public and private sectors. Such deficits do not dilute the currency or create inflation as productive capacity increases in direct proportion to the deficit. In times of major wars governments have in the past spent well beyond the full employment condition but have then needed to take unusual methods to restrain inflation such as introduce rationing, sell war bonds to the public to soak up spending capacity, implement price controls on producers and retailers, invest in increasing production of any real resources that may be in short supply such as steel, aluminium, electricity, machine tools, trained workers and so on. John Maynard Keynes had all of this worked out in time for the second world war and both the United States Roosevelt government and the British government followed his advice to the letter. Unfortunately this was all forgotten starting in the mid 1970's when Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan and their respective central banks and Treasury/Finance departments chose to adopt the fake economic ideology of austerity in the form of Milton Friedman's monetarism and the agenda of neoliberalism. The straight jacket of 50 years of neoliberalism which was designed to transfer wealth to the bankers and investor class has worked very well for the richest 0.01% but has been a disaster for the working and middle classes of nearly all countries but especially in Britain and the United States.
Southern Europe has also suffered badly due to the planned fiscal austerity of the EU while the Northern European countries have generally had trade and current account surpluses with the rest of the EU and with the world which has moderated the impact of their fiscal austerity.
Below are some relevant links for anyone who may be interested:
The Basics of Modern Money - TH-cam video - (6min 29sec) - 1 June 2017
th-cam.com/video/TDL4c8fMODk/w-d-xo.html
Bill Mitchell: Demystifying Modern Monetary Theory - New Economic Thinking - TH-cam video - (22min 42sec) - 29 December 2014
th-cam.com/video/YnyDRwSqp2E/w-d-xo.html
Robert Mundell, evil genius of the euro - Greg Palast - The Guardian - 26 June 2012
www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/jun/26/robert-mundell-evil-genius-euro
WHY THE BRITISH GOVERNMENT WON'T ADEQUATELY FUND NATIONAL DEFENCE
facebook.com/groups/597228160970506/permalink/1127219127971404/
How to pay for the war - A radical plan for the Chancellor of the Exchequer - John Maynard Keynes - 1940
ia801508.us.archive.org/18/items/in.ernet.dli.2015.499597/2015.499597.HOW-TO.pdf
Modern Money and the War Treasury - Sam Levey - Working Paper No. 123
August 2019 - Global Institute for Sustainable Prosperity - University of Missouri, Kansas City
www.global-isp.org/wp-content/uploads/WP-123.pdf
The Deficit Myth: Modern Monetary Theory and the Birth of the People’s Economy - Stephanie Kelton
www.milkenreview.org/articles/the-deficit-myth
Presidential Lecture Series: Stephanie Kelton - Stony Brook University - TH-cam video - (51min) - 15 October 2018
th-cam.com/video/WS9nP-BKa3M/w-d-xo.html
Episode 203 - Japan: A Case Study in MMT with Bill Mitchell - Macro n Cheese podcast (1hr 7min) - 17 December 2022
realprogressives.org/podcast_episode/episode-203-japan-a-case-study-in-mmt-with-bill-mitchell/
stephaniekelton.com/book/
Macroeconomics - William Mitchell, L. Randall Wray and Martin Watts
www.bloomsbury.com/au/macroeconomics-9781137610669/
It might take the majority of people with long covid as long as ten years+ or never, to return to enough health to work even part-time.
I was diagnosed 2014 with ME/CFS -v similar as everyone prob knows by now XD
It is only been this year, 9yrs later, that ive been able to see a return to work on the horizon, within the next 2-5yrs, IF i continue to improve at the rate i have been.
A too early return to work (esp due to political pressure) would lead to a total and complete relapse for many conditions which come about due to an accumulation of myriad stressors, including pathological, social, financial, chemical, food, gut, mental, physical, emotional stress etc, all upsetting the body's systems and creating a cascade of symptoms, such as with long covid being virally triggered.
The biggest issue i see for L.C. sufferers is that they will place the full 'blame' on covid and nowt on other stressors which helped create the the 'perfect storm' whereby covid was the final straw and tipping point.
The majority of those with long covid are public sector workers, funny that!. I am going to say if they cut the sick pay of them then 80% would make a full recovery. 😂
Same goes with disability benefit for children under 12. Why do you get extra cash to look after your kid when my mid needs 24hr care anyways. I cant leave my 3 year old home alone disabled or not. He doesnt sleep. He doesn't eat and runs into roads. Where is my extra cash. 😂
@@robertjones2053 public sector workers were the ones most exposed to covid and thus disproportionately more likely to develop long covid.
thats elementary level logic i used^
Clearly you are the one who needs extra money the most,
so you can return to school and learn how to think without cognitive distortions, logical fallacies and gain compassion for others^
A disabled child is NOT like an overgrown baby^
You have already shown me you have a lack of adequate parenting skills to raise a mentally healthy child^
REMEMBER this^ When you wonder WTF is wrong with my child in later years, recall that you were warned
I hope you learn, change and grow for your child's sake^
Economy means using less
Simple answer no