Professor Steve Hanke Explains Hyperinflation

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  • เผยแพร่เมื่อ 18 ธ.ค. 2024

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  • @Travelingman-1980
    @Travelingman-1980 6 ปีที่แล้ว +29

    Hyper-inflation discussion starts at 12:00 mins

    • @chrimony
      @chrimony 6 ปีที่แล้ว +5

      Amazing amount of rambling in the beginning.

    • @6789uiop
      @6789uiop 4 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      whew, thanks

  • @thundaga4005
    @thundaga4005 6 ปีที่แล้ว +28

    Yeah, when you take the position that Federal Reserve Quantitative Easing saved us, you're already wrong in my book. The Fed was the one that caused the unsustainable boom in the first place (of course with moral hazards provided by the federal govt). The recession/depression, the necessary consequence, was the markets way of reallocating the resources which were malinvested during the boom. The recession hurts, but it's what is needed - we need prices to fall in those bubble sectors so the resources can move somewhere more productive. When the Fed came in with slashing interest rates and quantitative easing, it prevented that process from happening. It didn't save us from anything. The Fed has just kicked the can down the road. The question is, are we out of road yet?

    • @jeffgreene5956
      @jeffgreene5956 6 ปีที่แล้ว +5

      If you listened carefully he actually agrees with everything you're saying. He was simply explaining the reality that yes, they saved us from "something" albeit, only temporarily, but he's not saying that they weren't kicking the can down the road, he understands that, since, as he plainly stated, it caused all sorts of malinvestment.

    • @thereisnospoon277
      @thereisnospoon277 6 ปีที่แล้ว +3

      But a few minutes later, he belatedly admits that Quantitative Easing would create even more problems down the road.Did anyone back in 2008-09 really want a soul crushing economic depression? I think we can all agree that the Federal Reserve should never have come into existence, but since it has, we have to deal with it the best way we can.And just hope for it's ultimate demise.

    • @lexparsimoniae2107
      @lexparsimoniae2107 6 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      "The recession hurts, but it's what is needed"
      If a recession is not properly treated it turns into a depression. Your sadistic worldview may entail that people's lives should get wiped away by a depression just so your religious faith in market fundamentalism is sustained - but that's precisely why your position is indefensible morally and economically.

    • @shanelackey5871
      @shanelackey5871 6 ปีที่แล้ว

      Also ,
      Mischaracterizes the free market .

    • @shanelackey5871
      @shanelackey5871 6 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@lexparsimoniae2107
      Central Banks ... All of them ever ... are morally indefensible .
      So too then is your position .

  • @scottkaye9404
    @scottkaye9404 6 ปีที่แล้ว +11

    This guy needs to be "taken to the woodshed" like he claims the Austrians should be.
    1. Schumpeter was not Austrian other than by birth. Does he know what is generally meant by "Austrian?"
    2. The FED controls the reserve ratio which defines the multiplying that is done by the "private" banks there-by the FED controls the money in the economy! Does he not understand this?
    3. He focuses on price inflation like a non-Austrian. The qualifying terms "monetary" or "price" need to be affixed to every statement about "inflation."
    4. He claims the most important price in the world is the USD/EUR rate! How about the price of money, aka "interest rate?"
    5. He claims to know what the prices of gold and EUR should be.
    6. "over-invest" what a Keynesian phrase.
    7. He thinks that "trading in the markets" is where you learn things. Don't bother with the books, don't bother with analyzing human action.
    8. "I don't spend too much time worrying about the debt." "I don't worry about entitlements because they will never be paid." Wow!
    Conclusion: He is a mixture of a Keynesian, Monetarist, and MMT who doesn't fully understand the "Austrian School."
    Please have someone like Dr. Murphy refute this guy. How embarrassing, he claims to be "Austrian."

    • @scottkaye9404
      @scottkaye9404 6 ปีที่แล้ว +4

      Jay Andrew, I listened to it again. He is very far from the “Austrians” that I study and respect most. I don’t think he shares the same general understanding and world view. That is if he even understands theirs. Winning in the market doesn’t mean you understand the economy you are in although it does tend to fool the winners in thinking they do. Mises was beyond brilliant and knew that he would not become rich playing the market. What a badass cool grandad that shouldn’t be listened to.

  • @jeffgreene5956
    @jeffgreene5956 6 ปีที่แล้ว +10

    I think, based on the comments here, people are misunderstanding what the professor was saying. I didn't understand him to condone any of the fed's actions, in fact, repeatedly he said I don't like it or not that I like it, etcetera. Did the Fed's actions save us from a depression? Yes, but that doesn't mean that they weren't the cause of the problems to begin with and I think he fully understands that. You all are missing the point. He's simply explaining what has happened, what the causes are and what will likely happen, that's it!

    • @lexparsimoniae2107
      @lexparsimoniae2107 6 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Actually he does not make a single remark as to Fed policies being the cause of the great recession. The reason you lot are either upset with Hanke or try to bend his words to your will is that you have an irrational, religious faith in market fundamentalism, and an equally irrational aversion to the function of any central bank. Hanke, by contrast, is a scholar capable of objective analysis.

  • @mkelly1118
    @mkelly1118 6 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    Sharp interview. Smart man. Thanks for sharing!
    - Mk

    • @dungnguyen-vx2sc
      @dungnguyen-vx2sc 3 ปีที่แล้ว

      Steven Hanke with Brains Rotten Apple

  • @javorgeorgiev6130
    @javorgeorgiev6130 6 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    Don't worry, inflation in Bulgaria now rises noticeably about every month. We're doing just fine inflating.

    • @owenbenjaminshapiro6285
      @owenbenjaminshapiro6285 6 ปีที่แล้ว

      Javor Georgiev aren't you tied to the euro?

    • @javorgeorgiev6130
      @javorgeorgiev6130 6 ปีที่แล้ว

      Silky Johnson Hasn't stopped prices from rising at a higher rate than wages. Clearly something is not as is reported. A good deal of the rise in prices has to do with regulations coming from the EU. With a constant and steady simultaneous decline and aging of the population, there's enough to point to for a start. The gray market is something you can only know of when you come and experience it yourself. Whatever statistics might be out ought to be off by more than a lot. I have my doubts that anyone who wears a formal suit for a living is in any way in touch with "the streets."
      Your average Ivan and his grandma will notice immediately if any one product has gone up by anywhere from 0.05 BGN up to 0.15 this month. Their pockets feel it first and the most, and my ears too, from their whining as they blame it on everyone but the source. I don't earn as much as I am reported to. Nor do I work the shifts/working hours allowed. Jokingly, among the populace, the price of bread is the first thing to refer to when attempting to gauge the economy. After that comes fuel, rent and utilities.
      Besides, anyone who thinks that the debt to GDP ratio somehow corresponds to a real amount of misallocated capital, makes wishes more often than thoughts. The reality of the economy's growth is not undebatable and so is the Government's claim to being the cause of it. The budget was raised in response to that dubious growth, making it all the more worrying that misallocation not only increases, but in growing disproportion too.
      To some, the national debt per citizen at 3,628lev might not be much in comparison with other nations, but there are plenty citizens here who could never be asked to repay it and have grown none the richer while owing it. Focusing on whether we balance our budget and pay our debt matters not when it says nothing of how it's spent.

    • @owenbenjaminshapiro6285
      @owenbenjaminshapiro6285 6 ปีที่แล้ว

      Javor Georgiev thanks for the detailed and lengthy answer. I went to Sofia and Plovdiv recently and I did notice what I realized from very young; not all prices can be judged equally. Stuff like bread, milk, maybe public transportation and other basic items and services give the "real" picture of the average buying power of the populace. Brand sneakers, TV's and maybe even gas and cars are next up on the luxury items ladder and may not be as cheap relative to the most developed nations.
      Sure enough, the train to Plovdiv was ridiculously cheap, as were groceries. All relative to my country, of course. But while tying yourself to the euro stabilizes the lev somewhat, you also take on some of the financial adventures and experiments of the EU

    • @javorgeorgiev6130
      @javorgeorgiev6130 6 ปีที่แล้ว

      Silky Johnson You probably rode on one of the few new trains that I think are exclusive to Sofia and Plovdiv. Those might have a bit of straw, weed and/or dirt from the village folk, but are usually a big cut above what the rest of the country gets. A passenger class ticket on a "proper" Bulgarian train will net you a ride in a filthy cramped up coupé. The train should be at least 20 minutes late, up to 3 hours, every single time no matter the day. On a lucky day you won't have to sit near the toilet, which always reeks of years of fermented urine. There are various reasons why railway transport is cheap. Being the worst option available is one of the major ones.

    • @well.thy.one.
      @well.thy.one. 5 ปีที่แล้ว

      Javor Georgiev you say doing fine, however, is it still fair to say that savings is losing value? If so, do you try and offset that somehow or just deal with it?

  • @diazmilton
    @diazmilton 3 ปีที่แล้ว

    Steve has an incredible amount of knowledge and is very sharp.

  • @amirrp2419
    @amirrp2419 3 ปีที่แล้ว

    19:00 we estimate the inflation in iran with the same method. Dollar exchange rate

  • @Alorand
    @Alorand 6 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    I love the heterodox views! If Austrian economics gives you a clearer perspective on the distortions that the government actions are creating in the markets, then use that knowledge to get rich trading, and let your success be the proof that you are seeing reality more clearly than others.

    • @dungnguyen-vx2sc
      @dungnguyen-vx2sc 3 ปีที่แล้ว

      Professor Steven Hanke is man with aBrain rotten Apple

  • @andrewdomenitzdmd
    @andrewdomenitzdmd 6 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    We ought to be clear about who is who in the world and when we say "the government", the government should be known to be the "people". People equal the government. If the government is paying for things, people should be aware it is they who are ultimately paying for things. Our problem is we have a people who actually believe the government has money. They do not understand that the government is totally broke and that the people are on the hook for it. Since the people do not understand the contract they are in and it was created by using a bunch of mumbo-jumbo, they should void it under the statute of frauds.
    We have been duped for over a century by couterfeiting and ponzi schemes.

    • @well.thy.one.
      @well.thy.one. 5 ปีที่แล้ว

      andrew domenitz andrew domenitz yes Gov’t should be of the people if it’s going to exist, but we instead have a corporate structure with corporate positions and the people have been made servants to the debt which keeps accruing in order to keep it all alive.
      Schemes indeed.

  • @rumco
    @rumco 6 ปีที่แล้ว +5

    I love how he assumes US shouldn't have had a severe depression and then proceeds to praise QE. At least he got rich.

  • @carpediemjonah8110
    @carpediemjonah8110 6 ปีที่แล้ว

    Excellent interview Jeff. Steve Hanke is the rare PHD Economist who can make money in the real live marketplace. If people understood what this man is saying, they would also understand why 90% of stock market traders lose their principal over time. Yes, even the Nobel prize winning PHD's at Long Term Capital imploded -- went bankrupt -- when they attempted to put their paper ideas -- egg head ideas -- into actual practice. Economic history shows, It is a rare economist who can actually understand the interrelationship within the whole market system. and put his paper ideas & insights into a provable outcome -- profit. Profit is a reward for productive use of resources. I love how Professor Hanke speaks of first learning to understand the relationship of his crop or egg production relative to the actual price and demand seen in the daily commodity marketplace. What a gem of an interview. 90% of the audience will not understand and instead will continue to lose in the financial markets as they put their own insights into the actual financial marketplace.. Economic history. Love it.

  • @jsallerson
    @jsallerson 5 ปีที่แล้ว

    We have experienced inflation, prices are going up, contrary to his statement at 35:00 that they are not.. however, the hyperinflation as a result of QE, in a relatively stable economy of which operates as the staple for the planet and as the world’s reserve currency, doesn’t happen immediately.
    It will not be noticed until the next economic slow down, and eventually, when other countries start dumping US dollars and those dollars return to our shores. But it doesn’t happen overnight, Hell, even in places like Venezuela it took nearly two decades for them to start seeing the negative effects of their economic decisions in terms of hyperinflation. So here in the us, ten years after the Great Recession, of course we haven’t yet seen hyperinflation.
    First it will be inflation, which we saw from 1995-2007, then deflation, which we saw from 2007- present, then we will get an overcorrection in efforts to stave off excess inflation that will become too deflationary, which will then finally result in an over correction to hyperinflation.

  • @issenvan1050
    @issenvan1050 ปีที่แล้ว

    But today Hanke says he is not worried about USD’s reserve status (even with more weaponization of USD). Why?

  • @bowlingvanjapan4099
    @bowlingvanjapan4099 3 ปีที่แล้ว

    Prices aren’t going up 35:15 I guess he never bought a car in the last 15 years 33% increase in base prices food prices doubled yet wages stayed the same. Sounds like he’s shielded from the majority of people and makes a living spending other people’s money.

  • @makkusuXmax
    @makkusuXmax 6 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    this guy is an economic wizard

    • @Aliena92
      @Aliena92 4 ปีที่แล้ว

      Nice joke

  • @issenvan1050
    @issenvan1050 ปีที่แล้ว

    How about Greenspan?

  • @thaddaeusbappe2495
    @thaddaeusbappe2495 6 ปีที่แล้ว

    Thank you for an excellent interview.

  • @DanielPerez-ln4vu
    @DanielPerez-ln4vu 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Para mi que le queda dificil explicar como en 2002 ARG tenia un PBI de menos de 100.000 millones de U$S y en 2013 llegaba a los 600.000 (o sea, 6X) y en cambio, con la convertibilidad que ama en 1991 era de unos 180.000 y en 2001 (antes de reventar) era de unos 240.000 . Para mi que esto ultimo es una decada perdida de crecimiento

  • @libertyhog1428
    @libertyhog1428 6 ปีที่แล้ว +5

    good interview.
    I'm struggling with his take on Q.E., in particular the part about "If the Fed didn't engage in Q.E. we'd have another great depression"
    The worst depression America had didn't happen until after the creation of a Quasi central bank. Not necessarily causation but it's definitely in correlation territory.
    And it was protracted in large part to Hoover and then FDR monkeying with wage, price, and regulatory controls.
    Is his implication that since we already have alot of wage & price controls, regulations galore, and enormous debt & unfunded liabilities that if the FED didn't intervene we'll be in FDR Great Depression territory??
    I suppose that'd make sense. Without all those economic interventions already existing, Fed involvement seems like it'd skip the short lived 1923 (idr the year) depression and kick that can down the road into a bigger ball of worms of malinvestment

    • @dungnguyen-vx2sc
      @dungnguyen-vx2sc 3 ปีที่แล้ว

      Professor Steven Hanke carry on your head is a Rotten Apple is Brain

  • @seankennedy4284
    @seankennedy4284 6 ปีที่แล้ว +6

    (1) Fantastic discussion. Fantastically erudite guest. A wealth of information. Thank you!
    (2) With all due respect to Mr. Hanke...Schumpeter: Walrasian. Certainly no praxeologist.
    "Austrian," if it is to mean anything---beyond simply a reference to place of birth, or to the fact of having been educated under a specific teacher---ought to be defined as theoretically rigorously as possible. But because this has yet to happen, after many decades of opportunity to do so, I would humbly suggest a substitution: "praxeologist" for "Austrian"---at least whenever a Misesian finds himself/herself engaged in economic discourse. A thing or two could be learned by all parties, in this manner, with respect to theoretical shortcomings and unique insights.

    • @dungnguyen-vx2sc
      @dungnguyen-vx2sc 3 ปีที่แล้ว

      Steven Han is man with Brains Rotten Apple

  • @otiebrown9999
    @otiebrown9999 6 ปีที่แล้ว

    Ron Paul - great !

  • @110gotrek
    @110gotrek 6 ปีที่แล้ว

    So it's likely going to be:
    Emerging markets having trouble to pay down their debts, possibly defaulting. --> EU or US banks not getting their debt paid back, getting into worse capital requirements, having to sell other risky assets and buying more "safe" USD assets.
    --> USD value gets even higher --> ??? --> Fed stops tightening, and heavily lowers interest rates again cuz "ya, we can't tighten anymore as inflation is "too low".". --> investors perception makes it look like the QE project DID fail, as they can't get the interest rate back up and higher, and neither can they sell much of their balance sheet (I mean, 50B a month today is still nothing...).
    --> Selloff in USD
    --> Buying in gold?
    I don't know guys, I'd love to hear what Hanke would predict. Either way, with government and the FED influencing and trying to "control and manage" the economy so much, I just can't see another end than high inflation on the US side of things.

  • @goldismoney5899
    @goldismoney5899 4 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    34min 30 seconds you can know this guy is suspect. He actually gives credit to the Fed for bail outs in 2008. He says, they actually did the right thing. "QE saved us" he says.....Oh right, he is a know it all "professor". Done listening at 36 min.

  • @KennedyFinance
    @KennedyFinance 6 ปีที่แล้ว

    I'll never understand why Professor Hanke simultaneously bashes Venezuela and Bitcoin. -Phil

  • @issenvan1050
    @issenvan1050 ปีที่แล้ว

    What is a good investment for a recessionary, near-zero inflation environment?

  • @kadusa1dl37
    @kadusa1dl37 6 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    I'm going to have to watch that again .
    Some things he says are brilliant but it seems he thinks the Fed is supposed to be there . I don't know . 🤔
    If end the Fed was the push of a button , he's not first in line to push it . I would venture to guess .

  • @110gotrek
    @110gotrek 6 ปีที่แล้ว

    I'd love to see him on more! Especially his view on currencies, debt, gold, government influences into finance and money....
    Sad that in the reactions people misunderstand him when he talked about QE for a bit.

  • @makkusuXmax
    @makkusuXmax 6 ปีที่แล้ว

    he would not bore me with a trade by trade

  • @waywardgeologist2520
    @waywardgeologist2520 5 ปีที่แล้ว

    Right up until QE.

  • @returnfreerisk7493
    @returnfreerisk7493 6 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    Don't we have hyperinflation now. The cost of food, shelter (rent or house purchase cost) medicine and education are going up significantly faster than wages.

    • @chicoktc
      @chicoktc 6 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      In the US? Absolutely not. You have no idea what it's like to like with a 10% inflation, let alone hyper

    • @well.thy.one.
      @well.thy.one. 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Return Free Risk definitely not hyper, but as a whole you can definitely feel the squeeze.
      Things will be restructured at times to give an illusion of cost decreases, but for the vast majority of people, full time workers, let’s say, the burdens are ever creeping up...gradually but surely.
      It’s easier to feel than to precisely account, sometimes, but it’s there.

    • @Myndir
      @Myndir 3 ปีที่แล้ว

      Real wages are irrelevant to hyperinflation.

  • @6789uiop
    @6789uiop 4 ปีที่แล้ว

    From what he described as failings of all other countries with hyperinflation, the USA is in deep trouble.
    We can print our own debt denominated currency, but what happens when the other countries drop the USD hot potato?
    The described leadership failings are familiar here as well. Unsustainable debt, national debt. ad infinitum

  • @TheComicChild
    @TheComicChild 3 ปีที่แล้ว

    36:10 YOwzers, you understand why Jeff Deist is president

  • @shanelackey5871
    @shanelackey5871 6 ปีที่แล้ว

    " Purchasing Power Parody "
    Pull out a Federal Reserve note ,
    Now pull out a silver Eagle ,
    A Dollar is a Dollar and a Federal Reserve note is a Federal Reserve note ,
    Parody between them is detrimental to the purchasing Power of the Original Contract / agreement .

    • @shanelackey5871
      @shanelackey5871 6 ปีที่แล้ว

      How much of the Original ounce remains if you cut the Oz of Silver into a thousand , no wait , a million , no wait , a billion , no wait a trillion little tiny pieces ?
      How much purchasing Power / parody remains ?
      None . Because a trillion Iou's will never ever , ever never .... Ever ever ever .... Be one single Dollar in intrinsic Value .

  • @dungnguyen-vx2sc
    @dungnguyen-vx2sc 3 ปีที่แล้ว

    Professor Steven Hanke Carry your Head is a Rotten Apple is Brains

  • @dungnguyen-vx2sc
    @dungnguyen-vx2sc 3 ปีที่แล้ว

    Steve Hanke is Professor Brain Rotten Apple

  • @redtroika8264
    @redtroika8264 6 ปีที่แล้ว +6

    An Austrian stating that QE was the right thing to do? What a fake. Send him back to school.

    • @Markdfadf
      @Markdfadf 3 ปีที่แล้ว

      So internet troll doesn't agree with one of the foremost and accurate monetary economists in the world. Nice opinion deflationista.

  • @akosmatyi6143
    @akosmatyi6143 2 ปีที่แล้ว

    I would like to know what is he saying after 3 years, austrian doomsers maybe were/are right just the timline was off :D :D

  • @bungeebones
    @bungeebones 6 ปีที่แล้ว

    Fifty years of consulting countries in economics and not one mention of ever returning one to a gold standard? Hard to believe from his record he really believes his own preaching.

  • @trailduster6bt
    @trailduster6bt 6 ปีที่แล้ว

    I must admit the Prof. Hanke nailed me pretty good on the hyperinflation point. After hyperinflation failed to manifest, I came to realize that this was because bank credit was being suppressed. No other reason could explain it. Cantillon's theory explained this perfectly. Sadly at the time I was still working with a very mechanical quantity theory of money.

  • @hypotheticallycorrect
    @hypotheticallycorrect 4 ปีที่แล้ว

    Wait... The dollar is strong because its relationship to the Euro?? What about the dollar's (and also international currencies) relation to hard assets??

  • @rexmann1984
    @rexmann1984 6 ปีที่แล้ว

    Deflation!?!?!?!? Does this guy even grocery shop?

  • @reverendconetmoyo7879
    @reverendconetmoyo7879 5 หลายเดือนก่อน

    An old video containing stale news..fro a so called professor..why not take about the current ..situation even if you don't agree

  • @kevinazana6544
    @kevinazana6544 5 ปีที่แล้ว

    Vine buscando cobre y encontre oro

  • @sandysandy967
    @sandysandy967 4 ปีที่แล้ว

    Why venezuela have stock market for currency exchanges amd buying of commodities whereas Cuba is not having any stock market?? Both are socialistic country. If cuba is not doing exchanges how 50% of its countries oil requirements come from imports and 60% of its countries commodities come from imports. As if they donot buy usd corrency how they will trade commoditues?? How this actually works??

  • @thuanan8132
    @thuanan8132 4 ปีที่แล้ว

    Professo Rotten Aple in US of American

  • @reverendconetmoyo7879
    @reverendconetmoyo7879 5 หลายเดือนก่อน

    It's like talking about Osama..ten years..after.. its nolonger news

  • @dungnguyen-vx2sc
    @dungnguyen-vx2sc 3 ปีที่แล้ว

    Profesor is He Rotten Apple Brain

  • @uawsux
    @uawsux 6 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Whaat???

  • @thuanan8132
    @thuanan8132 4 ปีที่แล้ว

    Professo Rotten Aple in US