I don't at all disagree with your N with all the obvious uncertainy, but I think L is far higher. Individual cultures are irrelevant ancient egypt may hold the record for that, with a few hundred years more common, but Human culture goes back millions of years ( not restricting it to homo sapien). I also think the chance of self annihilation is almost always overstated. Most of the things commonly mentioned have very little chance of wiping out our whole culture. I admit over thousands of years "reset events" are much more likely but I think it very very unlikely that those would reset all the way back to the middle ages.
I don't at all disagree with your N with all the obvious uncertainy, but I think L is far higher. Individual cultures are irrelevant ancient egypt may hold the record for that, with a few hundred years more common, but Human culture goes back millions of years ( not restricting it to homo sapien). I also think the chance of self annihilation is almost always overstated. Most of the things commonly mentioned have very little chance of wiping out our whole culture. I admit over thousands of years "reset events" are much more likely but I think it very very unlikely that those would reset all the way back to the middle ages.
What price would you pay to buy Humanity a good chance at long term survival, 1mn+ years?
@@Apistevist I'm not sure I understand the question but I suspect that what many would consider a "price" I would not consider any impediment.