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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 2 ก.ค. 2024
- The content of this video first appeared in growthdragons.substack.com/. Subscribe to get up-to-date analysis about China investments.
China stocks have been down for 3 years and they still don't look good going into 2024. Investors are wondering when the recovery will come, if ever. In this video, Alvin will give you his no holds barred analysis of what's really causing the China stock decline, and under what condition will the stocks recover.
Comprehensive analysis and simple explanation. Kudos to Alvin.
Good analysis, Thx u
very good analysis. thanks.
great analysis on household asset and financial assets allocation, and global capital structure
Good sharing and data, thank you
Great perspective! Keep it up!
Very well said. Bravo!
You missed a very important factor and that is the US interest rates has been going up in the past 2 years, and the US dollar has been strengthening. On the flip side, China was doing the opposite at the same time. The loosen their monetary policy and RMB depreciated.
As a result, US dollar funds were pulled out to chase after better yields in the US. In addition, the carry trades, ie borrow cheap USD when interest rates were near zero and invested in emerging markets had to be pulled back.
This caused the quick exodus of US funds from Hong Kong and China. Yes, the political conflict didn't help but that itself isn't enough to cause a major fund flow.
But now, the situation will likely reverse starting in 2024 and probably accelerate in 2025. US fed is expected to cut interest rates. When the US borrowing cost gets down to a sufficiently low level, the carry trade will happen again, china and hong kong stocks being so beaten down would likely see huge spike.
In addition, China domestic situation is also changing. Firstly, regulations are changing to allow more domestic institutional money to invest in local and hkg stock market. In addition, investing in property is no longer a sure bet. Domestic funds will likely move from property to stock market.
Agree except for the last point where property market slump so investors switch to stocks. I don’t observe to be that way. First investors tend to have a preference for a particular asset class. They tend to stick to it. If can’t make money they just stay cash. Second, if their largest asset is losing money, they are unlikely gg to be aggressive and invest in stocks. They are on risk off mode and likely to save more money.
Anyways hopefully China can reverse three years of negative returns and rebound strongly in 2024!
Good Analysis
Good enlightenment, boost my faith to strong hold China, HK stocks❤❤
Good analysis and easy to understand. Thanks. Opportunity for China market could come after US election, maybe.
My strategy is to look for high dividends yielding HK/China stocks. You get paid while waiting for interest to return to China stock market
That’s one way!
Perfect combination for a good buy. Earnings and cash flow growing and price cheaper and cheaper. best opportunity impossible.
Prime US Reit 52 Week High/Low 53.5 - 8.7 now 20 cents
Manulife Reit 52 Week High/Low 36 - 4 now 7.8 cents
China stocks have been selling down like Prime and Manulife Reit, there is a high chance for China stocks to go up at least 50% from the current level based on low P/E and high dividend yield like Bank of China.
My asia focused portfolio is currently down 35% 😢
...
I'm planning to hold for now.
Any sgx counters that do biz in China? Because i need to use SRS account. Except Hong Kong Land
The country aims to pivot towards a more robust domestic economy, emphasizing industrial policy and technological innovation. The focus is on building manufacturing and chip industries, with spending directed towards these sectors rather than real estate. This shift signifies a move from an investment-driven growth model to one that prioritizes household consumption and sustainable economic development. While Chinese stocks may underperform in the short term, this strategic shift aims to make China more self-sufficient and resilient in the face of potential decoupling from the West.
Yes I agree they have to bite the bitter pill at some point in time to make the transition. No one wants to be the bad guy to pop that bubble and dream until now.
Is there any hope for Alibaba in 2024?
Can we trust the numbers?
I see this situation as opportunity. With some of China stock in HK yield ing over 8% . I am happy just to collect my dividend. But buy only cash cows.
STI is also down about 7-8% YTD.
Ditto. Fund flows
Be greedy when every one else is fearful.. invested in hanseng tech etc. expecting it to double in 3yrs. What you say guys???? Dr wealth??
Most property counters were showing no sign of sudden collapse until recently. Well, time will tell, if the financial report is transparent, the figures that you showed will be meaningful. Else, by just looking at the revenue and profit, it could be very meaningless.
So China bad numbers are real. Good numbers are fake?
@@DrWealthVideostime will tell.
Yes, it is possible if their GDP figures can be cherry picked every quarter and 5-6% every year and yet you see lesser containers leaving their ports.. The truth will eventually be out..
Are you shorting?
A good analysis of where the main liquidity into the Chinese market comes from, but you forget to mention the key reason , being that the Chinese market is not a true open market-driven entity, not transparent as well as being exposed to the whims of the Chinese government. Uncertainty and trust is a risk no sensible investor is willing to take.
Then why there were times foreign funds bought up Chinese stocks?
Good day Dr Wealth. Yes, there were large investments in China before as the Chinese market was on track to rapidly become the largest economy. However, ever since the saga with Jack Ma and the Chinese government, the reigning in of the influence of large Chinese companies domestically and abroad; the meddling of the government regarding domestic profit distribution; the de-globalization; the political tension regarding Taiwan; the ongoing housing dilemma; the long awaited fiscal policy measurements that will make a real impact on the economy - to name just a few obstacles has tarnished the confidence in China at this moment, resulting in a reluctance to invest. There will always be hope that things change for the better and stocks recover.
China's sovereign wealth funds should have the capacity to boost the the performance of the financial market. Failure to do will bring dire consequences to the country's economy. Mindset change is also critical. Chinese investors should know that property investment will no longer be profitable. They ought to put their savings in the stock market for better returns.
You are a few Asian guys who understand the world of financial system. Per Warren Buffett, don't fight with US financial system
China will take time for recovery
Macroeconomists do NOT agree with DrWealth's characterization of China as the world's main growth engine. First, China's reported growth rates are inflated, typically by a factor of about two. (Same is true for China's GDP as shown in the videos listed below.) Second, except for certain Asian neighbors and certain other nations that export commodities to China, the effects of China's growth are mostly confined to China. Due to the balance of payments between China and most of the world's nations, the latter's economies neither lose much as China's growth falls nor benefit much as China's growth rises. As for the US, the macroeconomists I listen to say that, when China's growth falls, the US either benefits slightly or it's a wash. As for the world economy considered as a whole (except minus China's economy), it's simply not clear whether China's slowdown results in net benefit or net loss overall. Note, however, that these macroeconomists aren't considering the costs that China imposes on the world through its cheating, plundering and vandalism, that is, the costs attributable to China's IP theft, unfair competition, espionage, economic and political coercion, land grabs, disinformation campaigns, threats of military force and the resulting increases in defense spending among threatened nations, and myriad other ways in which China abuses its power and subverts the liberal order. (By liberal order is meant the globalized rules, agreements and customs designed to prevent strong countries from imposing their will on weak countries and to ensure basic fairness among nations through equal treatment under equal circumstances.) If macroeconomists did include all of these costs in their calculations, it would then be obvious that, as China's economy suffers, the world outside China benefits overall.
Below are 27 separate youtube videos that present evidence showing that China's true GDP is somewhere between 35% and 65% of China's claimed GDP.
th-cam.com/video/A5A5Eu0ra3I/w-d-xo.htmld
th-cam.com/video/TRawl73xWBQ/w-d-xo.html&ab_channel=Lei%27sRealTalk
th-cam.com/video/QxtFYmluHDo/w-d-xo.html&ab_channel=PGurus
th-cam.com/video/hGhP7U6ABK8/w-d-xo.html&ab_channel=StoicFinance
th-cam.com/video/4rdh6zf-9OY/w-d-xo.html&ab_channel=AmChamShanghai
th-cam.com/video/4rdh6zf-9OY/w-d-xo.html
th-cam.com/video/9jO1G4CNse8/w-d-xo.html
th-cam.com/video/QxHMixhJPHA/w-d-xo.html&ab_channel=EconomicsExplained
th-cam.com/video/3vZviUgzbbE/w-d-xo.html&ab_channel=InfoFlow
th-cam.com/video/yWJxEFby4b4/w-d-xo.html&ab_channel=BusinessBasic
th-cam.com/video/ENJIzmF3fgo/w-d-xo.html&ab_channel=ChinaObserver
th-cam.com/video/GA_G-6K_Kbo/w-d-xo.html&ab_channel=CenterforStrategic%26InternationalStudies
th-cam.com/video/UptsCnj0vpA/w-d-xo.html&ab_channel=ChinaObserver
th-cam.com/video/2q7yhxosyF0/w-d-xo.html&ab_channel=TheSpecifications
th-cam.com/video/VyD-pgFY0mc/w-d-xo.html
th-cam.com/video/MdUxiQgGMRI/w-d-xo.html
th-cam.com/video/9bUAUQWOWgE/w-d-xo.html
th-cam.com/video/G632a6M2hC0/w-d-xo.html
th-cam.com/video/l_06Hn20xRU/w-d-xo.html&ab_channel=HiddenForces
th-cam.com/video/7R6ucY9Xc1I/w-d-xo.html
th-cam.com/video/RfcWkKXHgxQ/w-d-xo.html
th-cam.com/video/JkMYhDQ8Rdk/w-d-xo.html
th-cam.com/video/c5QCkqbeyvM/w-d-xo.html
th-cam.com/video/c5QCkqbeyvM/w-d-xo.html&list=PLelj8TWnWrOpA-W-9I8nxgdkWSq1ta-eD&index=52
th-cam.com/video/yDZAEbAN4Is/w-d-xo.html
th-cam.com/video/9jO1G4CNse8/w-d-xo.html&t=140s
The two below are partly in Hindi, partly English:
th-cam.com/video/-OO8305dtqk/w-d-xo.html
th-cam.com/video/f7zCcG82JMs/w-d-xo.html
If you dislike china why you follow it so closely?
Does that mean western investors do not look at China as a pot of gold like they used to before?
Yes. Ever since the relationship between the two soured
Basically if one wants to make money and build wealth, DO NOT invest in the following:
1. China stocks
2. Singapore stocks
3. Reits
4. Btc
I dont know whats left because most of the investments you guys invest in this channel are practically losing money.
Why so upset
Property?
depends. hdb bto will almost gurantee a win@@xiaocai7
do i? i actually made a lot this year from US stocks though. hmm ..@@DrWealthVideos
This channel gives a lot of insights to me.
I decided to fully invest in Chinese stocks, go big or go home😂
Brave! Hope it works out for u!
But USA fund managers' funds could be from asian. 😂
Still more US money in the funds than Asians
Many crazy rich asians.
👍☕️☕️☕️
Some says this will happen if Trump returns
But it was trump who started the trade war w China
China stock not so jialat during Trump’s time. Trump just wants to MAGA but Biden is Make Others Worst Again.
China stock down because CCP going after the monopolies it created in first place e.g. Alibaba : Jack Ma.
This is the most important point you did not cover, so called Doctor 🤦🏻♂️😂