Hey Mike here are my following observations the moment we break below A level futures .. technically we did abc .. so it can be flat .. the intraday count at bottom is headache .. looks like expanding diagonal wave v of C / am not a fan of expanding diagonal but it fits .. and i do not like to count abc running flats when we have corrections because it messes up my mind with alternations .. i think robots are given orders that any break below A level / start buying immediately to position earlier before any other robots and before price goes up to maximize pips the intraday count for a or c legs does not matter anymore because it looks abc daily as corrections the whole drop can be higher degree of A as minor abc or Y leg as abc / Now we can do X leg in 3 waves or B leg as another abc minor with a bear flag pattern or channel then Y leg down as abc or C leg as minor abc and we can finish the whole correction as a zigzag WXY or ABC bullish level should be 22210 which is the high of b .. but to be on the safe side .. I'd consider 22500 all new highs as bullish level .. prefer to a decent daily or weekly close with a stable price above it .. all in all.. iti s corrective on intraday day .. the only bearish setup is that we are doing 1 2 .. and i ii of 3 of a C leg .. either case we go back to 22100 critical level looking forward for your analysis , enjoy your weekend
Happy New Year! What an insane market. The Jan 2 high exceeded the previous wave up by 1 tick and went to a new low. Now yesterdays high exceeded the previous high on Jan 2 by 1 tick or so, and here we are.... For timing purposes, I had Jan 2 as a potential bottom and Jan 17-20 as next potential high. Given the real folks don't come back to work until next week, I want to see the action into Tuesday before drawing any conclusions. If we don't dump to a new low by Jan 6th, my guess is going to be either the 4th bottomed and it's headed to a new ATH or we have some sort of longer lasting B wave rally with the next dump coming later in Jan. It gets tricky. If it wants to head to another high, the Jan turndown could be a smaller 4th with a final top a week or 2 later into Feb, then I expect extreme volatility to the downside with lows mid March and April (not sure if the second will be a lower low or higher low). My timing windows for most of 2024 worked out well. Without the 12/20 low in SPX breaking, it is really tough to commit to a count set in stone at this point. Waiting to see what they do next week after returning from vacation. I think we all agree on another wave up coming to an ATH, just a matter of if that has started (or will next week) or if this pattern stretches out to March / April. I expect 2 pullbacks this year, one in Q1 and the next over the summer, then a Q4 high ~ Oct/Nov. I would assume that will be a top, but no guarantees it is not a lower high. Obviously will depend on whether or not the downturns break structure.
Feliz Año Nuevo, esa podría ser una posibilidad y lo he dejado como posible conde "alternativo". Si este escenario se convierte en el recuento "preferido", entonces sería posible llegar a 6200. Actualmente el "muro de llamadas" en el SPX está en 6200.
If I were selling a membership....I'd jump straight to selling this as a 1-2-1-2 waterfall down. If you are right, it will be way more attractive to prospective members than being prudent about this being another 4th. Once you are selling, you are selling, not trading. Members don't want to hear you are leaving it open. They want trade ideas, and they want them NOW!
Disagree. This market is a PITA, and if you have no conclusive evidence or high probability, if I were a paying member, I'd rather be told to sit out than lose money. Less is more. Gimme a high probability setup, like this wave up exceeding the previous high, then an ABC down to 62% or so to position long for a 3rd up... Or a top to short if you're thoroughly convinced it's coming down, or a place to set a sell stop which invalidates upside, etc.... EW is all about probabilities. I use it with Gann for timing and price action to confirm & trade. Not only is every day different in this market, so are sessions. Sometimes the PM session gets treated as an entirely new trading day. I don't fault him for selling memberships with intraday analysis. In such a fluid market, it's mandatory if you're an active trader. For swings, maybe not.
@brentlorrilliere6057 - Hey Brent, while I appreciate your thoughts - I do not make trade ideas - there are too many different types of traders to try and cover what they all should or should not be doing. I am a day trader as I continue to say -- therefore I will always trade because I'm not taking a bullish or bearish view on a larger picture. But I want you and others to know that I understand and "get" what you are saying about "Memberships" and what those that purchase a "membership" may want to see.
Great work Micheal, thanks!
@casparweidner - Hey Caspar! How are you doing? Good to hear from you!
Pretty clear Head and Shoulders on SP. Market rallied back today to close right on the neckline. Ugly drop possible
Hey Mike
here are my following observations
the moment we break below A level futures .. technically we did abc .. so it can be flat .. the intraday count at bottom is headache .. looks like expanding diagonal wave v of C / am not a fan of expanding diagonal but it fits .. and i do not like to count abc running flats when we have corrections because it messes up my mind with alternations ..
i think robots are given orders that any break below A level / start buying immediately to position earlier before any other robots and before price goes up to maximize pips
the intraday count for a or c legs does not matter anymore because it looks abc daily as corrections
the whole drop can be higher degree of A as minor abc or Y leg as abc / Now we can do X leg in 3 waves or B leg as another abc minor with a bear flag pattern or channel
then Y leg down as abc or C leg as minor abc and we can finish the whole correction as a zigzag WXY or ABC
bullish level should be 22210 which is the high of b .. but to be on the safe side .. I'd consider 22500 all new highs as bullish level .. prefer to a decent daily or weekly close with a stable price above it ..
all in all.. iti s corrective on intraday day .. the only bearish setup is that we are doing 1 2 .. and i ii of 3 of a C leg .. either case we go back to 22100 critical level
looking forward for your analysis , enjoy your weekend
thx. Michael
Happy New Year!
What an insane market.
The Jan 2 high exceeded the previous wave up by 1 tick and went to a new low. Now yesterdays high exceeded the previous high on Jan 2 by 1 tick or so, and here we are....
For timing purposes, I had Jan 2 as a potential bottom and Jan 17-20 as next potential high. Given the real folks don't come back to work until next week, I want to see the action into Tuesday before drawing any conclusions. If we don't dump to a new low by Jan 6th, my guess is going to be either the 4th bottomed and it's headed to a new ATH or we have some sort of longer lasting B wave rally with the next dump coming later in Jan. It gets tricky. If it wants to head to another high, the Jan turndown could be a smaller 4th with a final top a week or 2 later into Feb, then I expect extreme volatility to the downside with lows mid March and April (not sure if the second will be a lower low or higher low).
My timing windows for most of 2024 worked out well.
Without the 12/20 low in SPX breaking, it is really tough to commit to a count set in stone at this point. Waiting to see what they do next week after returning from vacation.
I think we all agree on another wave up coming to an ATH, just a matter of if that has started (or will next week) or if this pattern stretches out to March / April.
I expect 2 pullbacks this year, one in Q1 and the next over the summer, then a Q4 high ~ Oct/Nov. I would assume that will be a top, but no guarantees it is not a lower high. Obviously will depend on whether or not the downturns break structure.
Wxy?
Feliz año Michael!! Pregunto: Y si en vez de esperar una C mas abajo es un 1-2 y ahora se va a hacer un maximo histórico por encima de los 6200!?
Feliz Año Nuevo, esa podría ser una posibilidad y lo he dejado como posible conde "alternativo". Si este escenario se convierte en el recuento "preferido", entonces sería posible llegar a 6200. Actualmente el "muro de llamadas" en el SPX está en 6200.
If I were selling a membership....I'd jump straight to selling this as a 1-2-1-2 waterfall down. If you are right, it will be way more attractive to prospective members than being prudent about this being another 4th. Once you are selling, you are selling, not trading. Members don't want to hear you are leaving it open. They want trade ideas, and they want them NOW!
Disagree.
This market is a PITA, and if you have no conclusive evidence or high probability, if I were a paying member, I'd rather be told to sit out than lose money. Less is more. Gimme a high probability setup, like this wave up exceeding the previous high, then an ABC down to 62% or so to position long for a 3rd up... Or a top to short if you're thoroughly convinced it's coming down, or a place to set a sell stop which invalidates upside, etc....
EW is all about probabilities. I use it with Gann for timing and price action to confirm & trade. Not only is every day different in this market, so are sessions. Sometimes the PM session gets treated as an entirely new trading day. I don't fault him for selling memberships with intraday analysis. In such a fluid market, it's mandatory if you're an active trader. For swings, maybe not.
@brentlorrilliere6057 - Hey Brent, while I appreciate your thoughts - I do not make trade ideas - there are too many different types of traders to try and cover what they all should or should not be doing. I am a day trader as I continue to say -- therefore I will always trade because I'm not taking a bullish or bearish view on a larger picture. But I want you and others to know that I understand and "get" what you are saying about "Memberships" and what those that purchase a "membership" may want to see.
FIRST!! MUAHAHAHHA