House prices facing 'Long Term Decay' - 5 Fact Friday 3 May 2024
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 2 พ.ค. 2024
- Five Fact Friday with Charlie Lamdin
mhwc.co.uk/blog/house-prices-...
All my links: linktr.ee/movinghomewithcharlie
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Inflated house prices were used for decades to cover over the UKs longterm wealth decline. As the prices come down it's a rude awakening for many Brits.
I still know landlords who are making an absolute killing. We may be winning on the House Price front, but there are still those who are enjoying profits and able to jack up rents to extortionate rates.
@@jungleboy1, property prices are up and they will continue to go up. Regardless it doesn't matter to us because landlords generally don't sell their properties because we view properties as passive income streams hence why we rent them out.
@@RabJ208 yeah i guess it goes with who I've been speaking to. People who are desperate to sell are just getting put into a trap of selling to a landlord who will buy it and just put it for rent.
@@jungleboy1, what proportion of the population are desprite to sell and why?
@@RabJ208 not sure if you've been living in a box but i think we're currently going thru cost of living crisis...
people bought in peak covid fixed short term and now paying double rates?
I dont know how many i just know its out there.
Sold up in Sheffield and moved to Bewdley (Near Kidderminster), currently renting as house prices here are ridiculous but keeping a close eye on the market. A lot of the houses currently listed have been on well over 6 months but seems to be reluctance to bring them down. One thing noticed, I have an extensions on my browser that tracks prices on Rightmove but some of the properties are taken off and then re-listed which removes the price history and obviously skews the reportable data to show that the house prices were not reduced to get a sale! Naughty,. Naughty!!
Another great analysis from Charlie. What's happening at the moment in the economy is very ugly but unfortunately it's set to get even uglier. We are just on the cusp!
As a dedicated floorplan provider for over 25 years, I can attest to the unreliability of low cost floorplans and area figures - never rely upon them for making any purchase decision as there is an industry wide emphasis on achieving the highest possible area figure!
ohh. i always look at floor plans to compare what to buy. I know EA's can be misleading with them sometimes but i have seen enough properties to understand the type of build (theres only so few copy and paste designs in the UK) that its kind of easy to interpret.
I've started watching your programmes with a cup of tea. 🙂
Excellent!
Nettle tea is it?
@@blueXRPdynamite. Hello little troll.
Remember these slurp
@@montydee5914 Oh right, ok. I thought it was a silly joke.🤔
To quote Douglas Adams the meaning of life is 42. This absolute fact is more meaningful than the rightmove index. Comparables, listings and pictures are the only use of rightmove.
It would be good if you and stig could do an update on the state of the economy. I've been starting to read/hear stories that remind me of the stig's welcome to 2025 monologue.
Yeah, maybe like a monthly update.
Yes! I work in VFX in the film industry and we're really hurting atm even though it's mostly US money and usually immune from UK wobbles... 70% of the workforce in film unemplyed. Can't help.
@@frizzlefrazzle5237that's got more to do with woke Hollywood than the economy!
I've had falling nightmares. Be on a cruise ship in bed in a storm to experience one. Another is for sellers or recent buyers. Most people will pay slightly too much, too much, way too much and way way too much. And yet some will not be constrained by inexperience and politeness and will grab a bargain. Get out and view and offer skilfully. Don't offer upfront. Be reluctant. This will make the agent chase you after they tried to get you to bid against imaginary buyers. Interest is not a competing offer. Be so cool that polar bears are putting on an extra layer.
You are so right on market sensitivity to swap rates. In Jan we saw effect of 3.4% on 5 yr swap. When it goes above 4% it pushes the market back down. This month's inflation print should give market direction for summer into election
READ ME on your fact for net approvals for mortgages you need to factor in 28 days for Feb and 31 in Mar. if you look at approvals per day it has gone from 2161 to 1977 - a drop of 9%!!!
Good observation. This is a great channel for kicking back at dodgy data.
It's going to take years for the new reality to sink in. I have put off buying in South Birmingham because after a period of seeing significant drops (which sold but were not right for me), there are hardly any properties are coming up for sale in my 3 mile radius. Also, the few that have come up for sale look terrible and just are not a sensible financial move. People can't start families, so where do they think the money is coming from as each government spends today banking on the next generation to pay it back? It's over!
Very similar to the situation in Ipswich
The reason why UK property prices aren't higher than 0.4% is due to the very sharp growth spirt we had over COVID - which means that property prices are back in line with where they should be.
Charlie underestimates the amount of government manipulation in the house market. They simply won't allow a crash, no matter how much it is needed - it's hard to be a politician when someone believes their assets have lost 90% of value. And that is what we have allowed assets to become, not just for landlords. But all of us, retirement, aged care etc.
If house prices in the UK crashed 90% it’s the last thing any Government would be thinking about.
By what mechanism do you think the government can 'disallow' price falls? Or is it just an assumption?
they will crash, been praying lots and get this feeling
@@MovingHomewithCharlieThey have already used all the tricks in the book to sustain them at this level. So that's an interesting debate, can they do more to delay the inevitable. I guess another scheme for first time buyers would get things moving again. Further currency devaluation, more foreign investment etc. People here have only seen rises so FOMO can play a big role. But there comes a point when none of that works any more and when we reach the end of the road.
John Major's government let house prices drop. They were too busy trying to prop up the £ to take any notice of house prices. In 1989 I bought for £65K. In 1995 I couldn't sell for £52K a 20% loss.
What I would suggest is that the quickest way for a Government to generate a "feel good factor" is rampant House Price Inflation. Gordon Brown did that, allowing things like the 125% LTV Northern Rock mortgages. That all came unstuck in 2008.
Interestingly the people who bought the house next door to the one I finally sold in 1999 for just over what I paid for it, lost money over their ownership from 2006 to 2013. So in 17 out of 35 years there was someone in that terrace of six houses making zilch or losing money on their house.
Watching my market every single day without fail, I have noticed a slight stall in sales for first time this year in my area (so many 2 beds coming on at £300k plus with average of £325k even for terrace, it is like an infectious over priced plague), plus suddenly a few new properties coming to market last couple of days after a new listing drought, some at slightly lower price. Praying it isn't a blip. More than happy to be wrong about everything if I can get a home!
Great point
Thank you Charlie.
My very best wishes to you for your Best Agent launch... You have the power lad ⭐✨⭐
You can always express your opinion Charlie.
I am absolutely fed up with seeing overpriced houses. I have only met one brilliant agent who doesn't over-value. He's a good lad and has sold many houses this past year.
My mother in law had to wait 18 months for probate on investments and her home although all already in joint names.
18 months
My area Cornwall/Devon detached up to 650k .... 85% unsold- 15% sold . Haven't sèen that ratio since I started looking 3 years ago
Still overpriced
All you need to know about the direction of house prices is that interest rates are clearly going to remain much higher than the rates that caused the price boom.
Forecasts are just statements about what the forecasting organization would like to happen and are meaningless.
Houses are actually costing people money now. For years House Price Inflation was higher than mortgage rate turning houses into magic money trees.
I wonder if that is why Charlie gets so many investors watching. It has been annoying seeing houses make far more money than a carefully picked stock portfolio.
The concern is EOs response to any initiatives such as stamp duty reductions, interest rate reductions is inflated house prices.
They are all mad!! Thank you,Charlie!
While people can't afford mortgages. In come large banking corporations with printed money out of thin air, then buys up the hole lot, then rents them out to people, for a high monthly sum... So sinister!
That is a concern of mine so am sticking with buy if you need a home but don't overpay - just renegotiating my purchase but hope to complete this month. Only then can life move on. Cash buyer but not because I'm rich- far from it. But Lloyds and Serco are, or have been, buying properties but it's not in OUR interests.😮😢
Exactly I think banks are buying half these houses also , for free too it's just not fair
Who's really to blame for not being able to afford a mortgage? Some might say "the education system" but that shouldn't be used as an excuse. I look at people who complain about not being able to afford a home and think to myself - WHY can't they afford it? A 30 year old on a minimum wage job had 14 years to sort himself out to become "something" or atleast to gather a substantial deposit... yet wonders why he isn't in a position to buy a home today?
@@RabJ208 yeah, leave school and straight away work towards being a wage slave. Don't try to live a fun life at all - just stay home and plan your life of debt 😂😂😂😂
If only. IMHO that would be far preferable to Del Boys thinking BTL with high leverage was a "nice little earner". Locally I have seen tenants get booted out and a house get sold only for it to go back up as a BTL with a different landlord. When I was renting I had to move three times in three years, the third time because the landlord decided "he could make more money from two flats".
In and Ipswich suburb, two bed house marked as sold, asking price for £240k back on market two days later for same price. Similar homes coming on for £225 to £230 and not selling, next level up from there either vastly overpriced or terrible condition ex rentals/probate another one we saw originally on for £400k down to £350k still sitting there on market
You can market a property prior to probate being granted to reduce the delays.
Sellers are still deluded. One house in Leeds has been on the market for 12 months, OIEO £585K detached 3 bedroom and 1 bath. It needs some work doing and is opposite an unsightly sheltered accommodation. She had very occasional viewings and only one offer (ours) for 540K. She rejected it and said she will only consider 585k and above. We withdrew and said good luck selling it.
Your example is not evidence of delusion. She owns a house and will sell it only if she gets over £585K. That is an option trade. She clearly does not need to sell and so has the option of not selling in the absence of a satisfactory (to her) offer.
So you’re a disgruntled purchaser… You offered within 7% of the asking price, can’t be that overpriced.
Starting to see some asking price reductions in Cornwall, by around 10%. Still plenty of houses SSTC and Sale Agreed.
Hi Charlie, the net lending numbers per bank are really interesting. A 1% reduction in net lending balance is 16 billion pounds. The banks are seeing that this quarter, Lloyds loan book down 1.6bn, Natwest down 2.1bn, Santander down 2.5bn, Barclays down 900mn. Santander being a global bank can make more money elsewhere in the world through different loans. Definitely being driven by far lower first time buyer mortgages and people paying down oe even off their mortgsges. In 2004 you were at 80k/90k mortgage approvals a month now at 60k a month. Normalising interest rates have done that. In Derbyshire where i live you can see more properties are for sale about 8% higher in Q1 theres no interest in them.
People who overpaid trying to maintain some equity in their houses. Been there and done that in the 1990s.
What was the number of net mortgage approvals for March 2023?
Follow the link in the description to all the source links and you'll be able to see all the data at leisure!
I’d imagine there are scenarios where there is competition for a property which has gone to a closing date and that it may not be possible to arrange a mortgage valuation before the closing date?
The trouble is that the estate agent overvaluing, is that they don't see the long picture. Say that a person decides to use that estate agent who overvalued there property and the seller had to drop there asking price so many times. The seller next time won't be using that estate agent again and if other prospective sellers see that they may do the same. This in the long run loose the esate agent business in the long run, but they don't see that do they.
It services the greedy EO's. Let's hope your model services the honest ones and the customers.
Julie got offer accepted on price £330k of a £350k ask price and bank evaluation would be the loan the bank is willing to pay on the house. And the max loan they will pay on the house would be £300k. I have not seen Banks undervaluing house unless the buyer is buying paying 5% to 10% and mortgage LTV 95 to 90 %. I have seen houses prices slashed £25k in last week and there are a lot more properties getting listed at lower price in the South East London market.
No thats incorrect. Banks don’t value their loans. They value the property to determine the loan to value ratio to establish their security.
over valuing is working ... maybe things are changing now .. but it worked in the past becasue people were happy to pay those inflated prices up until a short while ago.
When the market is rising over valuing means it might take a month or two for the market to catch up. Now the market is falling it means zero chance of selling.
It wouldn't be right to start without a slurp.
More houseing stig please 😎
Hey Paula 😊
@@RabJ208 cry d e b t man or should I say 🐑🤣🤣🤣🤣
@@RabJ208 🐑🤣
@@jamiejones642, Rhiannon?
@@RabJ208 🐑💩head😁
Charlie, I managed to buy late last year in a high demand part of the country at a nice 4.46% 5 year fix as a FTB
After years of moaning about house prices, I've realised I'm a terrible ladder pulling a-hole of the first order as I don't want prices to fall now.
Hey, I'm only human though
That count down is really annoying
Just like CPI which gives you no idea whatsoever about actual inflation..the house price indices give you no idea on current actual house prices…sums this world up🤷♂️
They're not the biggest on the stock market are they... But categories in an area that is one of the top for investing.
I'm confused. They agreed on 330k THEN the Mortgage valuation came in at 300k. You make it sound like they had the mortage valuation THEN they agreed on sale price. They must have been in a rush to agree on a sales price without a valuation. Costly.
Predicting a gov initiative in the Autumn folowing local elections outcome.
I went and got a cup of tea…… and missed the first 7 mins. Sorry
Never pay more than your lender's valuation. Cheap advice if you got cash pay over the odds. I doubt it. People with money never over pay cash buyer's look for discounts. It's the poor trying to buy who are desperate to get on the property ladder..it should not be at any price. Pay a fair price which isn't what agent's or seller's want. Valuation price assessment by the lender's valuers should be your top price. Or you will end up in a world of hurt. On a falling market. I reckon 2026 will be the bottom of the falls in property prices 🤔.
Interest rates will go up this year and probably next year also..it is what it is.
It's a shame that by the time a buyer reaches this stage money has already been spent. There needs to be a pre purchase pack set up by the seller to release buyers from wasting time and money.
TH-cam only permits one like. You have that for many reasons.
So many people want to shut people up that they don't agree with..........to many snowflakes about
17:00 around there you said more people does not mean higher prices , you said that’s because those people need to have enough money to contribute to the demand. Nonsense. More people means more renters (assuming they can’t afford to buy). More renters drives up rent. This attracts landlords. That drives up house prices. Come on man, this is your bread and butter. You should know this
Not just landlords. It also attracts the better off renters as they become keener to leave the totally dysfunctional rental market. I sold my late Mums house to competing renters at very close to asking in the middle of last year and that was despite the Truss/Kwarteng disaster.
I also, just this week, had a beautifully presented colour printed letter with personal telephone number posted through my letterbox from a renter desperate to buy in my area. Basically asked me to name my price.
The market is not dead yet!
I also said it can affect rent, but it doesn’t directly affect house sale prices.
@@MovingHomewithCharlie It indirectly affects them via rising rents attracting more investors. Bottom line is that it affects house sale prices. If rent is paying 10% yield, investors will pile in reducing stock for home buyers -driving up prices.
Hey Charlie, I wouldnt take the chance with shorting stocks. I appreciate you were just sharing your opinion but i wouldnt croach on this subject. Avoid mixing this with your strong narrative about moving home.
Looking forward to the upcoming launch of yours.
It's fine for you to express your opinion, but you've given absolutely no explanation as to why. The whole point of my own channel is that I am free to say whatever I want, whenever I want, as long as I own it, which I always do. Why do you say what you say? What's your reason? Because being told what to say or not say is one of my absolute pet hates. Everyone IS free to say absolutely anything they like, within the law.
@@MovingHomewithCharlie I used to work in a finance capacity in a professional non customer facing role. We were told in strictest terms that we could only give financial information but not advice. To not do so was to risk being sued for giving financial advice without the proper professional qualifications. Advice included what we personally held as investments as well as our opinions on whether specific stocks or markets were going up or down. It was daft as we knew far more than the financial advisors (aka salesmen) who did have the appropriate qualification but there you go.
I doubt anyone cares what some bloke on you tube advises but the rules are actually quite clear that you should not.
@@Leapops I have a healthy scepticism for rules and am not someone who has ever blindly accepted them without question. In this case, you’re projecting/extrapolating rules you have chosen to abide by personally even though it’s not necessary, and are wagging your finger and tutting at me that I’m not doing the same. Soz bbz. 🤷🏻♂️
@@MovingHomewithCharlie I abided with the rules given as I did not fancy losing my very well paid and, mostly, very enjoyable job. I would call that necessary for me personally.
I literally said "I doubt anyone cares what some bloke on you tube advises" so no finger wagging or tutting from my end. I was just giving you some information from an area where I have some expertise.
@@Leapops that’s how they keep us all obedient! They pay to keep us quiet. Well, they try… I used to be paid by corporations but when they required control of what I could and couldn’t say, I walked. No one owns my opinions except me.
Houses are coming down badly. 140k for a 2 bed flat which I have never seen in 8 years since I moved in Houghton Regis , Bedfordshire . Housing market is going down badly so now it will be very very bad for everyone that bought a house. Spoke with an estate agent he says that he thinks the interest will be around 7 to 8% from next year so it`s looking bad !
Not according to the statistics. You can't argue with facts.
@@RabJ208 Can I see those statistics please ? UK house prices are the worse ones in Europe price wise and let me not start talking about how bad they are built . But hey ho guess the bubble is exploding and it will get even worse until 2027 . UK is in a very bad recession but nobody is saying anything . Unemployment is rising every day , people with mortgages over 300k on 1.5% will be hit very hard when they will get 5-6-7% interest .
@@filipdobrin6515, what do you mean show you the statistics? It's common knowledge that prices are up. Charlie doesn't even deny that. Don't allow me to make you stupid.
@@RabJ208 Show me where the statistics are for prices going up ? Rightmove , Halifax ? Which one are you following ? Making me stupid with hopium ? They might be up in an area where the house price is 100k up north but not down south . A friend of mine bought a new build for 410k and he lost 75k until now , wonder why . Yeah statistics don`t lie , just people losing heap loads of equity . You must be one of those that bought an expensive house and hoping prices won`t fall bad . Rightmove just as a tip they are putting up only asking prices buttercup .
@@filipdobrin6515, are you claiming house prices are down? Lol
more peopl edo equal higher prices ... anyone who isn't an ardent remainer can see that. Because maybe those people coming into the country can't afford to buy, but they need somewhere to live. Thus they make being a BTL landlord more appealing, couple with the trashing of stocks/pensions we now have more competition for houses.
Buy physical Gold instead of houses 👍…thank me in 10 years 😁
except you can't live in a bar of gold....!
@@MovingHomewithCharlie dang your right 🤣👍
You can hand the gold over for the house 😊 whe gold goes up houses come down 😂
@@jamiejones642 After laying out a fortune in rent while you rent.
I wish someone had given me that advice in 1999 when I didn't need a house. Priced in ounces of gold houses didn't go up much. Compared to the money in my savings accounts they shot up.
Mortgage approvals are down which means average people cant afford the mortgage repayments. What about cash purchases from the very rich build 'just another asset'.
House prices are not decreasing ! They are just increasing at a slower rate! The pound is decreasing in value (via inflation) faster. Houses are still a great Asset for the rich and still unaffordable for the average person.
Overvaluing WORKS! If you get the business at least you have a chance that the vendor will keep reducing their price with you untill you get a sale. If you don’t overvalue you get no business.
I'm a cash buyer with around £850k looking to buy in N Yorks soon...although I already own two houses outright, one of which I'm now living in. I very much look forward to that cash buyer vid & offer template, Charlie.
NB: I've been critical of your views & narratives many times so I don't know if you've shadow-banned me (I can't be bothered to check) as so many other channels have...YT creators _REALLY_ don't like dissent, especially with added sarcasm. 😁
I can see your comment if that helps.
It's awfully vulgar to announce how much money you have.
I wouldn't know how to shadow ban anyone! Your comment is here and I'm responding, all constructive views welcome.
@@Paul-zu2hf, stop being jealous Jamie. BTW - 850K isn't that much money. I handed over the keys of a car worth £45K to my friend for free because it was taking up space.
@@RabJ208 you make very inaccurate assumptions about me, debt man.
I am an accidental landlord. I inherited a house and put it up for sale. I upgraded the electrics, the gas, replastered it, repainted it and it needs nothing doing to it. But after making it the cheapest by far comparable local house there were no takers. Now at that price point l can rent it out for the same (ish) return as if l'd sold the house & put the £ in the the highest fixed rate account. Good luck with waiting for a crash.....it won't happen.
In your situation, absolutely the right thing to do but there will be another 10 houses to your 1 that HAVE to be sold. Renting isn't always an option!
@@Bubbles77418 l am not so sure, that will only happen on the owners lose their jobs. And unfortunately, any fall in house prices will be soon followed by other rise. This is all to my benefit but l wish it wasn't so....
Correct! This lot have been talking about a crash for atleast 2 years now.
No one is waiting for a crash. Buyers are there they just can’t pay today’s asking prices.
@@MovingHomewithCharlie l am 62, seen it all before, several times. Prices may drop short term but they'll rise long term, the super rich will ensure this happens when interest rates drop, which they will. I wish this wasn't true, l've 3 kids in their 20's, but l am sure it is.