1.1 million mortgage arrears - 5 Fact Friday Live at 1.15pm
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 25 เม.ย. 2024
- Plenty of news showing the direction of the housing market in this week's 5 Fact Friday.
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A large local employer yesterday announced a four percent payrise comparing this to 3.4% inflation. Instead of a round of applause and jumping for joy, the offer was greeted with glum silence followed by a queue of questions before management ended the meeting. Whilst life is tough for employers, employees have seen their rent or mortgage costs rise wildly and are rightly scared.
Recent ONS data shows sold prices down but new build prices UP 16% in ONE YEAR!!
When a developer pays your Stamp Duty and/or gives you CashBack this should be represented as a price reduction by the ONS….. They are fools!!
Also developers are offering shared ownership all over the place. How many naive young people will be jumping on shared ownership in a falling market 🙃
I can't believe this price fixing isn't illegal. Utterly shameful practice and skews the land registry prices.
@@Paul-zu2hf, nothing skewed mate. Average prices are ⬆️. Plenty of money circulating which is wonderful 💪
Absolutely...institutionally supported fraud
@@Paul-zu2hf, nothing is skewed Jamie and Rhianne. Lol
I personally don't want rates to come down, I think its at a reasonable point. House prices are well over inflated and have been for a while, people have over paid and now rates are where they should be they have realised they have over paid and can't afford their house.
Yes to this. Rates should go higher!
What proportion of the population can't afford to pay their mortgage and now forced to sell? Put it in percentage form to make it easy...
670k in mortgage arrears and another 500k soon to be...
@@Paul-zu2hf, hey Jamie.....or is it Rihanna today? Lol
Occurs to me that if you remove the fog from the market too quickly then the nakedness of the market will be so obvious that the slide will overshoot.
Allow me to explain the difference between a crash and a slide. If you brake hard on ice in your car you may experience some spinning and loss of control. A crash is immediate and sudden and destructive. Both may have consequences for your underwear.
Something I noted the other day, I was checking my clear score credit rating, and part of that was a comparison to national and local averages. Where the local average (I assume where I live, Nottinghamshire) is about steady, the average national score is dropping. I don’t know what it was last month but I remember it being in the 600’s. Now though, it’s in the 500’s.
Crystal clear rstes not coming down
You wish
They may throw a bone to the stressed out owners that overpaid. But it's not like a quarter or a half is going to make any difference.
@@Paul-zu2hf, most people have come off their old fixed mortgage and onto the new without any problems. Plenty of buyers too. That's why prices are UP this year and will continue to rise as I predicted last year.
@@Paul-zu2hf the aren't in control now .
If market goes up.nothing they can do to.long end of curve
@@RabJ208 without any problems 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣yeah everyone's rolling in money 🤣🤣🤣🤣
If you are clued in to the current global economic picture things are gonna get messy real soon.
Yes UK house prices are a very small part of the global picture and actually not really a part they will be effected big time shortly
Most haven't got a clue. I was flabbergasted recently to discover how much credence educated people give to what they hear on TV and read in the newspapers. They told me I should fact check what I discover on social media but they never fact check what they're told 😳. One of them has had her house on the market for a year now. 😮
@@toiletrollholder yes media like TV and newspaper is often wrong
@@exploringsuffolk deliberately misleading in fact. Luckily my dad told me back in the 70s that TV was propaganda and that the news was lies and propaganda. I suspect social media started off as a chance for people to spread truth but then got taken over by the dark cult like everything else. So we have to wade through nonsense but at least we do check.
@@exploringsuffolk question remains - how far down
Too many people, not enough homes. There's not going to be a calamitous crash, l am 62, been in this situation several times, there might well be a short lived fall, but as in every other time it'll affect those unfortunate ones who are over stretched and/or lose their jobs. How many times have l heard that t.h.i.s time is different? Only to see house prices rise yet again, this time will be no different IMO.
I've inherited a 2nd house, no buyers, no problem for me, l am renting it out for more per annum than if l'd sold it and stuck the £ in a high interest rate account, and there will be 100,s of 1000's like me every year....
I am not suggesting this is societically good, it's not, but it is what it is, a fall that some want will only see families holding onto property, owned, mortgaged or inherited..forever.
Correct! Lack of housing and too many people is propping the market up.These people think there are too many houses and not enough people to fill them. Lol.
i have seen properties that have come on market high prices that need so much work. I have been following the prices and they have not been sold. And they are in bad condition unless they are willing to decorate and rent otherwise they will not be able to sell them.
Saltaire. Doesn't matter how many people. It's about how many willing qualifying buyers. You are right that renting market is high and selling is slow so hope your strategy works out.
People without money can’t buy homes. 🤷🏻♂️
@@MovingHomewithCharlie And people with money can buy homes and are doing so.
Rabj Mr 'mortgage rates will fall well below 4% this year' has been very quiet lately.
I've remortgaged one of my propeties at 3.7% already and were not even midway through 2024 yet.
@@RabJ208 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
@@Paul-zu2hf, I predicted that mortgage rates would drop below 4% in 2024. Was I wrong? Lol
@@Paul-zu2hf, my predictions always come true.
@@RabJ756 just because one person can get a mortgage below 4% does not mean 'mortgages' are way under 4% like you claimed.
Missed the live. I'm catching up 😮
Englishman's home is his castle, well its like a prison when you need to work 24 hours to pay the mortgage.
I've been out viewing. Found property I like, ready to offer. BUT there is a funny smell and there was mould on the plastic window frames. It's also over priced. A week after I had asked the agent about this, the agent said a damp inspection was carried out and there no damp issues, it's just been shut up for a long time. I asked to see the report, they couldn't provide one, owner couldn't find it, even though it's been done in a week of me asking. Second point part of the garden I asked if it belongs to the property, agent said they'd check and it does. I checked on land registry and it's not. Should I walk away. It's the agent or owner not being factual. I just don't know.
Run away now
If it smells like 🐂💩 chances are it is. Estate agents are worse than used car salesmen, unfortunately. It will just cost you thousands for a conveyancer and surveyor to uncover the truth...... Don't walk, run!
The house I'm trying to proceed with has had hiccup after hiccup the estate agent told me the seller had all his ducks in a row 5 months later I'm still waiting for an electricians report. The seller got funny about having to produce one and wanted me to also pay for a second one. The advice I have been given is to walk away except the sellers solicitor wrote in clause that any that walks away from the table owes 4/cent of the agreed price. I too want to walk away I feel conned
@@geoffhalbert5435 were you made aware of this said 'clause' when you agreed to purchase the property? If not, then I'd tell them to stick it where the sun doesn't shine.
Should you walk away? If there is mould present I would not walk away, I'd bloody well sprint, lol. Seriously, where there is mould there will be more. It amazes me when vendors, agents, photographers think nothing about having photographs of black mould on a listing. When I see that on a property that has piqued my interest I just close the tab immediately.
Large 3-4 houses in "posh" central parts of Edinburgh are in very short supply, that's why nearby well connected parts of East Lothuan new build developments saw highest price hike a year ago, families looking for larger affordable nouses
Do we know if the number of mortgage holders in arrears is per property or per person? I.e would a couple with a mortgage be 2 in arrears or just 1 as jointly liable in the stats?
I think it’s mortgages, or properties
Charlie missed the importance of the Swap rate- this is the cost and risk of financing debt. If money markets feel that the risks to the money that they are being asked rises, then they negotiate a higher interest.
FYI 12000 listings withdraw from the market per week, STC’s are around 25000.
This week 37000 listings
Can you clarify your point Paul? Are you saying that all 37k listings are new to the market or relistings or something else?
@@Longinus-fe9tu it’s just the reported data, I assume they are all new it doesn’t include new price, people may move agents and repost of course
Any idea of the average ages of these listings that have withdrawn?
@@neds3685 yea it’s around the same number
Houses may never go ke-splat but the jobs market does
There is a youtuber in the US michael bordenaro. I don't know if he's been watching Charlie's videos or if he's come to the same conclusion on his own, but he put out a video the other day saying the median house price is a lie.
Great video mate but that end section discussing Rightmove's corporate "friends" sounds an awful like they are intentionally/unintentionally compromised.
Just FYI. The reporting on US inflation is bizarrely skewed by car insurance and energy. Actual inflation if you strip out a few anomalies is close to 2.1%. Totally agree UK won’t cut until the Fed do.
Yes am aware of the insurance scam!
Viewed a flat today through purple bricks and they said they've got mortgages through nationwide at 3.8% I've already got my mip through another advisor at 4.7% with 20% deposit but I do wonder if they really can get them at 3.8% or if they just say that to get you through the door..
Purplebricks cannot be trusted.
Why would the Nationwide or anyone else lend money to you at 3.8% when they could buy risk free gilts and lend money to the government for the same length of time and get 4.5%?
@@robertstorey7476 that's easy, because rabj says so, and he's never wrong.
@@robertstorey7476 Arrangement fees.
@@robertstorey7476, that's what banks have been doing for hundreds of years. LENDING MONEY.
The slurping really magnifies through ear phones :)
In our local town last year 43 now 97
Br8ng em down 😂 i wanna see 80% drops in house prices 😆😆
No No - the 90% crash 😂😂😂
@@RabJ208 I'm ready debt man 😁
I need it to drop 50% to buy a bungalow that I want
@@naeedaafzal3055, how much is the bungalow now?
@@naeedaafzal3055, how much is the bungalow now?
I would walk away
I m taking voluntary redundancy from a big mortgage lender and my partner wasnt paid his monthly salary on friday...thats the state of play in the economy...might go back working for bank in recovery
Sorry to hear that on both counts. Good luck 🤞🏻
Hang on Charlie. New house listings don’t exist in a vacum. Most sellers are buyers ( landlords and probate excepted), so all those sellers are also buyers. Not sure your correlation between number of properties listed and downward pressure on the market is that strong.
Not true I sold and I've been sitting in a caravan on the side of the road for 6 months waiting for the price to drop
@@geoffhalbert5435 yeah because there's millions of people doing that
Same .. except I’m in a beach bungalow in Thailand watching the shit show that is UK from afar.. not even sure I want to buy in UK at this point.. bad times .
There's a considerable number selling but not buying. Moving in with family or into rental. More than at any time I've been in the market before.
You're overlooking the fact that they are would-be sellers, but not succeeding if all their properties are still listed for sale. They can't become buyers without a sale first. So, the more unsold stock, the fewer of them will be buyers, and this puts downward pressure on prices.
Quite a lot of echo on the audio. Could do with some soft furnishings in the room.
Yes or sound boards around desk
It's because this channel is an echo chamber
BOE will drop interest rates in June/July but it won't be as much as we would like. Then BOE will put it up again by the end of the year to slow Xmas spending.
It sounds like you completely ignored Fact 5! 😎
Tories are piling on the pressure for a rate cuts , even though Bank of England is independent, fed up of politics in this country it’s a joke
The economy is polarised. Those that lose employment this year will see life chances gone to the benefit of a FTB buying their first home, or a professional property developer, or extinct landlord.
Sadly. Yes
an american bank has gone under first of the year
Blimey Charlie you really are scrapping the barrel today.
Some valuation on Zoopla, which is totally inaccurate to start with for a house out of reach for most people listening in, has had its fictional valuation reduced by 35% Wowee! You don't even say what your friend actually sold for.
My Zoopla "incorrect valuation" has gone up in the same time period.
All of these anecdotes are as meaningless as Rightmoves average price data.
True!! Well said!
It’s as valid, but no more valuable, as any other anecdote
They have to rely on personal anchdotes and scouring the internet for deals to justify their argument. Much easier for us because we just flick though the ONS website for our information which is much handier I say.
@@MovingHomewithCharlie. I agree. Along with other anecdotes it was totally useless for use in supporting or debunking your “expectation.” But I suspect Sycamore et al will cling to it as firm evidence of the impending doom that is just around the corner despite the lack of any actual hard data of said doom.
1.1 million repossessions coming then auction houses will be flooded with cheap properties
Want to repeat again in case someone missed that, whoever bought in the last 2 years, is already 8cked. Many don't know it yet, but the realization will be slow and painful. And I don't really care if you bought cash or with a 90% mortgage. Same situation. And we may not see this level of prices in our lives again...
8cked?!
1) If you can afford to buy a house for cash then you probably couldn't give a 8ck what happens to house prices especially if you are buying somewhere to live.
2) You clearly do not understand the basics of inflation. We will definitely not only witness these prices in our lifetimes again but also prices many times higher.
@@Leapops You are really clueless! I saw you several times in other discussions. People view houses as their biggest pension pot. They DO care what happens to their house price. Everything else is just drivel and nonsense,...
He's busy up ticking himself. @Leapops
@@Leapops house prices have gone down in the past. Due to low interest rate since over a decade ago, asset prices went up a lot while wages didn’t all that while, now that interest rates gone up asset prices will go down, why would you think it will not ?
@SycaMore, you've got it mixed up. If you don't own your own property by now - you're f8cked because it is getting more and more difficult. The rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer. I'm buying up these properties.
Been busy with blah blah - no you haven't! I've seen your plane all over the place recently!!!
So I could get away from home and focus enough to get some actual work done!
Charlie I dare you to use the word ‘usury’ instead of ‘interest’.
Do us a favour, get rid of the countdown at the start. It's cringe
If we delete it, it also removes the live chat feed for people to see in the replay. The countdown is to allow people who want to to watch from the beginning.