A little more capital to rbs with less volume makes sense because we can rely more on correlation with qbs and pass catchers. It's not about upside. It's about leverage and correlation
Maybe the stacks looked good, because you had top level drafts doing 150 drafts while stacking most of those drafts. Thus increasing the likelihood a stacked team would succeed.
Hyper fragile was good a few years ago when the top RBs were very clear cut and putting up bigger numbers. Also elite QBs were going later so you could still get a top QB. Now we have RBs going later that can match the round 1/2 RBs and will have a better QB + WRs going rb later.
Because of stacking I keep ending up with teams that are either AFC or NFC heavy is there any correlation in drafting teams that are heavy by division?
I've tried stacking in mock drafts, and it's almost impossible without ridiculous reaching for players. I'm assuming that for these guys to pull it off just one stack, they have to enter hundreds of drafts.
Is there any data to support the idea that a larger stack (3, 4, or 5 players) has an advantage over a 2-player stack? And in the absence of such data, what is your gut feeling? I have sought to go 3 or 4 deep on my stacks this year, especially in the recent Underdog Superflex contest. I even went 6-deep on a Bills stack on one team.
Only two to three bills score most of the points I don't see a season where 6 Bills players score enough to win. That's just my opinion. But stacking teams with a heavy consolidation of targets/carries is probably the only way.
I have a question, how do you guys get access to all that info and if it’s just given to you don’t you have an enormous advantage over us mere plebs? Shouldn’t you be excluded from BBM type contests?
The data is made publicly available each year by Underdog. Here’s the 2022 season’s pick by pick data. underdognetwork.com/football/best-ball-research/best-ball-mania-iii-downloadable-pick-by-pick-data Leone crunching that data and sharing it for free is amazing. But you’re also free to dive in yourself.
The problem with your math regarding stacking is that a heavy majority are stacking and you are only looking at overall advance rates. This creates non-normalized data. If the vast majority are stacking, obviously the vast majority of top teams will be teams that are stacking. That is not evidence that stacking works; it's just evidence that due to most people stacking, chances are that the distribution will show that a number of them will be everywhere, including that the top. In order to normalize the data, stacks need to be compared to themselves; same with non stacked teams. Simply if the majority of teams in a draft, stack their teams, chances are that a team that is stacked will win, due to their just being more of them. Fact: Regardless of stacking or not, the team that will win week 17 is the team with the combo of players that scores the most, regardless of what real life teams they are on, and the combo or lack there of.
The reason 3 stacked qbs works well is because it gives more correlation AND leverage. Pat snuck brady, Godwin into week 17. 2 qbs is better for upside but does not consider leverage
i agree that figuring out ways you can build in leverage is important. kind of like the QB/RB builds for that reason (i bring that up towards the end of the ep). but yea 3QB is probably a bit underrated by Leone's research bc he wasn't looking at things in terms of 3 consecutive weeks at the end of the year (to broaden the sample). it's something he's noted that might overly downplay 3QB's leverage element.
I am now team zero rb. The trick is always landing on the right combos. Last year zero rb team of aj dillion James cook Rojo spiller tdp Kyren Williams good luck to you. The wr are more expensive now for good reason. They score the most. Last year only kj obsorn and zay Jones after round 10 at wr was worth a crap. Rb had dameon pierce mostert Jeff Wilson samaje perine Pacheco McKinnon rhomondre was right around round 9 to 11. The less said about my 2022 jalen Tolbert shares and Josh palmer shares the better.
Hard to say if game stacking is positive at all. Classic case of causation vs correlation If good players and pros who are much better at drafting best ball over all also stack more often then it will look like it is positive EV when it might not be the case. If all poker pros started raising 6-3 suited and rec players didn’t. Then it would look like raising 6-3 would be the cause of winning poker tournaments more often, when it would really just be better players all doing same thing
Leone’s analysis actually controlled for this by treating more than just week 17 as the “championship week”. And teams that (likely accidentally) stacked up Week 6 or whatever were still boosting their odds if that week was treated as the championship. Sharp players are definitely using it more but there’s a lot of evidence that it works (including a long history of DFS game stacks working in similar field sizes to the Week 17 final)
@@legendaryupside yes that somewhat accounts for it. But doesn’t factor in if you are stacking on purpose you most likely sacrificed value of picks by reaching to get players If you are looking at random weeks those players didn’t necessarily reach to get the players Plus if you are game stacking for final week and others are. More likely to have similar teams. And the fact that you are drafting only for final week which is like 1500-1 this year. Even pros that max will only get 1 team in every 5 years or so
for me it's less about year 2 or 3 and more about him needing to get there as mostly a pocket passer. It feels a little Herbert 2022 to me, where we're pricing in a big jump that feels realistic... but could also fail pretty easily since he won't be a high-end rusher.
So nice, I’ve now watched it thrice
Leone comes through with that 🔥🔥🔥 data that im embarrassed to know
A little more capital to rbs with less volume makes sense because we can rely more on correlation with qbs and pass catchers. It's not about upside. It's about leverage and correlation
holistically strategy etc out the window when highest total game of week 17 cancelled 😂
All part of the money scheme 😅
Maybe the stacks looked good, because you had top level drafts doing 150 drafts while stacking most of those drafts. Thus increasing the likelihood a stacked team would succeed.
Great stuff guys!
Hyper fragile was good a few years ago when the top RBs were very clear cut and putting up bigger numbers. Also elite QBs were going later so you could still get a top QB. Now we have RBs going later that can match the round 1/2 RBs and will have a better QB + WRs going rb later.
Because of stacking I keep ending up with teams that are either AFC or NFC heavy is there any correlation in drafting teams that are heavy by division?
I've tried stacking in mock drafts, and it's almost impossible without ridiculous reaching for players. I'm assuming that for these guys to pull it off just one stack, they have to enter hundreds of drafts.
What do you consider "late rounds"? Are you talking last 2-3 rounds or double digit rounds, etc?
Great stuff..wow
Is there any data to support the idea that a larger stack (3, 4, or 5 players) has an advantage over a 2-player stack? And in the absence of such data, what is your gut feeling? I have sought to go 3 or 4 deep on my stacks this year, especially in the recent Underdog Superflex contest. I even went 6-deep on a Bills stack on one team.
Only two to three bills score most of the points I don't see a season where 6 Bills players score enough to win. That's just my opinion. But stacking teams with a heavy consolidation of targets/carries is probably the only way.
How many teams were drafted across all platforms to win one?
ty
I have a question, how do you guys get access to all that info and if it’s just given to you don’t you have an enormous advantage over us mere plebs? Shouldn’t you be excluded from BBM type contests?
The data is made publicly available each year by Underdog. Here’s the 2022 season’s pick by pick data.
underdognetwork.com/football/best-ball-research/best-ball-mania-iii-downloadable-pick-by-pick-data
Leone crunching that data and sharing it for free is amazing. But you’re also free to dive in yourself.
That hat is a tad aggressive Pat ... Are we to expect that level of Bro going forward? Lol
lmao - fair. it's bc my hair was a mess tbh
@@legendaryupside sounds like we need some LegUp merch. Pete knows a guy...
I like
The problem with your math regarding stacking is that a heavy majority are stacking and you are only looking at overall advance rates. This creates non-normalized data. If the vast majority are stacking, obviously the vast majority of top teams will be teams that are stacking. That is not evidence that stacking works; it's just evidence that due to most people stacking, chances are that the distribution will show that a number of them will be everywhere, including that the top. In order to normalize the data, stacks need to be compared to themselves; same with non stacked teams. Simply if the majority of teams in a draft, stack their teams, chances are that a team that is stacked will win, due to their just being more of them.
Fact: Regardless of stacking or not, the team that will win week 17 is the team with the combo of players that scores the most, regardless of what real life teams they are on, and the combo or lack there of.
The reason 3 stacked qbs works well is because it gives more correlation AND leverage. Pat snuck brady, Godwin into week 17. 2 qbs is better for upside but does not consider leverage
i agree that figuring out ways you can build in leverage is important. kind of like the QB/RB builds for that reason (i bring that up towards the end of the ep). but yea 3QB is probably a bit underrated by Leone's research bc he wasn't looking at things in terms of 3 consecutive weeks at the end of the year (to broaden the sample). it's something he's noted that might overly downplay 3QB's leverage element.
But it has to be 3 good-great QBs right? Like taking Baker Mayfield or Davis Mills as the 3rd QB wasn’t going to provide any value.
@@NMxCrazySkillslast year super late decent qb was geno and Herbert in his Rookie year was super late
I am now team zero rb. The trick is always landing on the right combos. Last year zero rb team of aj dillion James cook Rojo spiller tdp Kyren Williams good luck to you. The wr are more expensive now for good reason. They score the most. Last year only kj obsorn and zay Jones after round 10 at wr was worth a crap. Rb had dameon pierce mostert Jeff Wilson samaje perine Pacheco McKinnon rhomondre was right around round 9 to 11. The less said about my 2022 jalen Tolbert shares and Josh palmer shares the better.
Hard to say if game stacking is positive at all. Classic case of causation vs correlation If good players and pros who are much better at drafting best ball over all also stack more often then it will look like it is positive EV when it might not be the case. If all poker pros started raising 6-3 suited and rec players didn’t. Then it would look like raising 6-3 would be the cause of winning poker tournaments more often, when it would really just be better players all doing same thing
Leone’s analysis actually controlled for this by treating more than just week 17 as the “championship week”. And teams that (likely accidentally) stacked up Week 6 or whatever were still boosting their odds if that week was treated as the championship. Sharp players are definitely using it more but there’s a lot of evidence that it works (including a long history of DFS game stacks working in similar field sizes to the Week 17 final)
@@legendaryupside yes that somewhat accounts for it. But doesn’t factor in if you are stacking on purpose you most likely sacrificed value of picks by reaching to get players If you are looking at random weeks those players didn’t necessarily reach to get the players Plus if you are game stacking for final week and others are. More likely to have similar teams. And the fact that you are drafting only for final week which is like 1500-1 this year. Even pros that max will only get 1 team in every 5 years or so
🍻🍻
😍
I seen this person go RB with their first four picks…
I don’t get that but what do I know…
fix the audio my dude
Isn't Lawrence a 2nd year breakout... Are we really counting his Urb-ruined Rookie year as anything other than an ACL tear?
for me it's less about year 2 or 3 and more about him needing to get there as mostly a pocket passer. It feels a little Herbert 2022 to me, where we're pricing in a big jump that feels realistic... but could also fail pretty easily since he won't be a high-end rusher.
I'm not