Great work as always, Chuck. This is like having a heavyweight fund manager mentoring us retail folks on the "how to invest" using the easy to use Fast Graph.
Thanks for another really useful video. If there’s one industry that I am virtually certain will be subject to steadily increasing demand over the next three decades, it’s health care. Cannot thank you enough for this video and all of your other videos.
Thank-you Chuck for all you have done for the investment community. I've been a subscriber for many years and appreciate the time and effort you have put in to educate in the critical importance of value investing and incorporating the margin of safety in investment decisions. FAST graphs is by far the best investment tool on the market today and is my final tool in making my investment decision. Best wishes to you and your team.
Excellent video as always. I always find a few tickers to add to my watchlist for potential buys from your sector review videos. This time I went ahead and bought starter positions in $TFX and $ELV immediately.. both fit my risk/reward profile. Another stock I'm watching is $EVH, perhaps you could include it in the next health sector recap!
Thank you Chuck for the great work over all the years! I wonder why no MRK? MRK for me looks undervalued right now and similiar quality like AMGN. Maybe the screener settings were the reason? Thank you for your precious time to answer in advance.
When I look at MRK it does seem like it passed the screen . However, I cannot manipulate the screen and get it to show up. It appears to be a bug, I looked into it further and get back to you. Regards, Chuck
@@KrisJovi-vj3vd i buy Nestlé and Pepsi at These levels, the consumer sector is some Kind of beaten down. Thanks Chuck for your outstanding Work! You teached us so many Lessons!
@@maltlickytexas absolutely true! But ITS very diversified and stable in healthcare and will likely the next 30 years while raising the dividend at excellent Credit rating
Many stock pickers use ROIC or ROE when screening for stocks. I don't think that I have ever seen you use these metrics on your screening. I would be most curious to know your thoughts on the use of those metrics. Thank you. And thank you for all the knowledge I've learned over the last several years
That’s a good question. However, as a value investor the most important thing I screen for is valuation. frankly, if the valuation is not attractive, I don’t care what ROIC orROE is. On the other hand, when I am actually analyzing a stock once I find it attractively valued, I always look at our fiscal fitness section on FG which graphs important metrics like return on assets, return on equity, return on invested capital, and much more.. To summarize those things are not really that important if the company’s valuation is excessive. Regards, Chuck
@@daveyvane just for jamming: I was thinking that low profit margins means it's a difficult business, harder to raise the price and be more profitable, and may suffer from a higher risk in maintaining the earnings. So it matters ^^
@@RecSys_001 After your first 10x of your money on these stocks your fear of low margins will be gone. Lets not forget that Cigna is up something like 25x since 2009 bottom. Very few companies have so long history of double digit compounding for many decades.
EPS is the same like in 2008 while inflation adjusted EPS is half of 2008 EPS. Someone is eating them alive. So research should focus on reason why it should change going forward and how management plans to do it.
I notice that for Cigna (CI) the FAST Graphs is using non-GAAP PE multiples, which as of writing this comment is about 12, but the regular GAAP PE is about 31. That is a huge difference and concerns me a lot. Why doesn't your graphs show regular GAAP earnings? Or does it? Don't you agree that the huge disconnect between non-GAAP and regular GAAP earnings for Cigna is concerning?
Yes, FG do have the option to look at diluted earnings (GAAP). However, adjusted operating earnings is utilized when measuring valuation because it better reflects the operating results of the company. GAAP earnings include a lot of accounting convention, non-cash charges etc. but most importantly, if you run most companies using GAAP you will find that the correlation with stock price is not as useful as the correlation with adjusted operating earnings. The market often ignores non-cash charges. Regards, Chuck
@@FASTgraphs Non-GAAP is not to adjust for only non-cash charges, but for what management believes are one-time events such as reorganization, merger and acquisition costs, or costs associated with something like COVID that are not reoccurring. EBITDA adjusts for non-cash such as depreciation and amortization. It seems to me that Cigna is using a significant amount of adjustments to get to Non-GAAP and they appear to be doing it consistently for many years. I don't fully understand the details and maybe there are justifiable reasons for the adjustments to give a better picture of how the company is preforming. It is just something to be cautious about and I would need to fully understand the adjustments management are making before relying on the Non-GAAP metric when it is that different from regular GAAP.
Share price tracks operating earnings and not GAAP. Looking at GAAP PE gives you false results. Like when Altria write off their Juul invetment to zero and it lowered GAAP EPS but not operating earnings. As the result share price ignored it completelly and GAAP PE looked high up to PE 24. Real PE was 9 and thats why stock delivered double digit annual returns since than.
20Y annual growth rate for GAAP EPS is 13,99% and 13,75% for non GAAP. No reason for concern. Both earnings grew at the same pace. GAAP was just more volatile thanks to write offs and share price clearly tracks adjusted EPS, so do not look at GAAP PE, its useless metric.
Hi Chuck, just curious as to when do you consider share dilution when shopping for value, as that doesn't seem to be mentioned in any of your videos. For example, ICLR has increased their shares by 56% since 2020. Would love to see a video that considers stocks that are strong compounders and have a strong share buy back program, thus increasing shareholder value. Thanks
When I am doing comprehensive due diligence, I look at a company through all the information provided by FAST Graphs. In this regard I can look at the financials, FUN Graphs, and/or fiscal fitness and I can evaluate share counts (buybacks, or share issues). Regarding issuing shares and buying back shares, I support issuing shares when valuations are high and buying back shares when valuations are low. To clarify I do not like to see a company buying their own shares if I would not consider buying them myself or vice versa. Finally, often when I do a video on an individual stock I will include a look at shares outstanding etc. Regards, Chuck
What is your take on the recent PBM news? The healthcare sector has taken a hit along with health insurers. How would you evaluate this and the possible effect on intrinsic value? The PBM risk seems much higher than before, so a larger margin of safety looks to be required
The simple answer is you would have to evaluate the effect on long-term earnings. In the long run, earnings determine market price. So your research and due diligence should focus on the long term impact that any news would dictate. And of course, as always, you should factor in current valuations based on the results to your research. You can always learn from the past but you can only invest in the future. Regards, Chuck
Chuck, are you still abiding by what you said a few weeks ago that the financial sector is the sector with the most value? I find healthcare could be even more undervalued than financials.
Maybe in some cases, but not as many healthcare stocks compared to financials. Nevertheless, there is value to be found in healthcare for sure. Regards, Chuck
Financials rally this year and especially after election so I think financials are now very overvalued as a group. Big cap financial stocks in SPY are the most expensive since 2008.
Will we ever get QQQ, S&P 400 and 600 ETFs? Fastgraphs has now two ETFs which are almost identical as Apple is now bigger than Russel 2000 so it would be great to have small and mid caps ETFs too.
Can you do a video on semiconductors? Ray Dalio has been buying a lot of those bargains that have been dropping for half a year now and a lot of them have good peg ratios.
After struggling with investments that didn’t work out, I’m exploring ETFs as a more stable option for building long-term wealth. What are the top 5 ETFs you'd suggest for someone starting with a lump sum?
In no order: 1) VOO 2) QQQM 3) SCHG/VUG 4) VTI 5) SCHD/DGRO. Personally I put down 1.2m$ on few ETFs, still diversifying. it was this time last year I made my first break through with a liquid 370k. Handed it to a trader here in TX, I get weekly pay out which I put back on long term ETF's. Tesla will be a huge buy for me when the market bottoms.
There is a lot going on as MPW works through the steward situation etc. At this point, I am in a wait-and-see posture. Simply stated, MPW controls hospital assets that are worth significantly more than the market value of their stock. Consequently, I continue to hold pending resolution of these matters. Here’s a link that may help from their website: assets-global.website-files.com/628fe2259e1c5d1172a8cca9/663ace79125b1c3a8b431842_Record%20Correction%205-7-24%20Final.pdf regards, Chuck
The stock market is grossly overvalued using past metrics. All new investable dollars should go to CASH funds. How long will this mania continue is anyone’s guess. Old people like me recognize the mania.
I agree that the market is grossly overvalued as I presented in the video. However, I also contend that it is a market of stocks and not a stock market. This simply means that in any market whether raging bull like today, a bear market like we had in 2008 in 2009, or even fairly valued market - that will always be individual stocks that are overvalued, undervalued, and/or fairly valued. My goal is to present research candidates that are fairly valued or undervalued even in today’s market. Regards, Chuck
So half of the list have different long term normal PE and yet Fastgraph still does not have screener for companies below blue lines and still calculate rate of return only to orange line. So you probably missed majority of deals as many below normal PE companies are not on the list. And also fast growers are not on the list as these trade at higher PE multiples and below earnings yield of 6%.
We are developing a screener that will be able to discover stocks as you asking. However, is a very complex process and we appreciate your patience. Regards, Chuck
Elevance is a star!!! And it's on sale. Thank you Mr. Market.
Great work as always, Chuck. This is like having a heavyweight fund manager mentoring us retail folks on the "how to invest" using the easy to use Fast Graph.
Thanks for another really useful video. If there’s one industry that I am virtually certain will be subject to steadily increasing demand over the next three decades, it’s health care. Cannot thank you enough for this video and all of your other videos.
Great video again Chuck, we are blessed, thank you.
Very interesting and helpful! And you get something in return: Your inspirations help me pay for the FASTGraphs subscription 😀
Thank-you Chuck for all you have done for the investment community. I've been a subscriber for many years and appreciate the time and effort you have put in to educate in the critical importance of value investing and incorporating the margin of safety in investment decisions. FAST graphs is by far the best investment tool on the market today and is my final tool in making my investment decision. Best wishes to you and your team.
Excellent video as always. I always find a few tickers to add to my watchlist for potential buys from your sector review videos. This time I went ahead and bought starter positions in $TFX and $ELV immediately.. both fit my risk/reward profile. Another stock I'm watching is $EVH, perhaps you could include it in the next health sector recap!
Thank you Chuck for the great work over all the years!
I wonder why no MRK? MRK for me looks undervalued right now and similiar quality like AMGN.
Maybe the screener settings were the reason?
Thank you for your precious time to answer in advance.
When I look at MRK it does seem like it passed the screen . However, I cannot manipulate the screen and get it to show up. It appears to be a bug, I looked into it further and get back to you. Regards, Chuck
@@FASTgraphs Thank you Chuck, looking forward to hear what you will find. Best Regards
Thank you for the video. I have AMPH and LNTH on my watch list. Both small cap.
Thanks Chuck. Could you please do another video for undervalued REITS as of current? Thank you.
Thank you, mr Chuck for the video. I'm long J&J and Amgen. I want to own Elevance Health as it looks undervalued at this price.
Own JNJ, UNH and bought elevance at These levels
@christophhamm7711 Very good for you 👍🏻 Great companies and stocks to hold for a long time.
@@KrisJovi-vj3vd i buy Nestlé and Pepsi at These levels, the consumer sector is some Kind of beaten down. Thanks Chuck for your outstanding Work! You teached us so many Lessons!
JNJ has significantly underperformed the S&P 500 over the last decade.😂
@@maltlickytexas absolutely true! But ITS very diversified and stable in healthcare and will likely the next 30 years while raising the dividend at excellent Credit rating
Many stock pickers use ROIC or ROE when screening for stocks. I don't think that I have ever seen you use these metrics on your screening. I would be most curious to know your thoughts on the use of those metrics. Thank you. And thank you for all the knowledge I've learned over the last several years
That’s a good question. However, as a value investor the most important thing I screen for is valuation. frankly, if the valuation is not attractive, I don’t care what ROIC orROE is. On the other hand, when I am actually analyzing a stock once I find it attractively valued, I always look at our fiscal fitness section on FG which graphs important metrics like return on assets, return on equity, return on invested capital, and much more.. To summarize those things are not really that important if the company’s valuation is excessive. Regards, Chuck
YES UNCLE CHUCK!>
Thanks for another interesting video Chuck. Are the low profit margins on some of businesses, such as Elevance, a cause for concern?
Of course not. Why would low profit margins matter???
@@daveyvane just for jamming: I was thinking that low profit margins means it's a difficult business, harder to raise the price and be more profitable, and may suffer from a higher risk in maintaining the earnings. So it matters ^^
@@RecSys_001 After your first 10x of your money on these stocks your fear of low margins will be gone. Lets not forget that Cigna is up something like 25x since 2009 bottom. Very few companies have so long history of double digit compounding for many decades.
dental companies! another one, XRAY (dentsply) has been hammered here in 2024, wonder if it's value or value-trap at this point! cheers chuck!
In all comes down to whether the earnings manifest as expected or not. That’s a job for research and due diligence. Regards, Chuck
EPS is the same like in 2008 while inflation adjusted EPS is half of 2008 EPS. Someone is eating them alive. So research should focus on reason why it should change going forward and how management plans to do it.
I notice that for Cigna (CI) the FAST Graphs is using non-GAAP PE multiples, which as of writing this comment is about 12, but the regular GAAP PE is about 31. That is a huge difference and concerns me a lot. Why doesn't your graphs show regular GAAP earnings? Or does it? Don't you agree that the huge disconnect between non-GAAP and regular GAAP earnings for Cigna is concerning?
You can choose GAAP as an option
Yes, FG do have the option to look at diluted earnings (GAAP). However, adjusted operating earnings is utilized when measuring valuation because it better reflects the operating results of the company. GAAP earnings include a lot of accounting convention, non-cash charges etc. but most importantly, if you run most companies using GAAP you will find that the correlation with stock price is not as useful as the correlation with adjusted operating earnings. The market often ignores non-cash charges. Regards, Chuck
@@FASTgraphs Non-GAAP is not to adjust for only non-cash charges, but for what management believes are one-time events such as reorganization, merger and acquisition costs, or costs associated with something like COVID that are not reoccurring. EBITDA adjusts for non-cash such as depreciation and amortization. It seems to me that Cigna is using a significant amount of adjustments to get to Non-GAAP and they appear to be doing it consistently for many years. I don't fully understand the details and maybe there are justifiable reasons for the adjustments to give a better picture of how the company is preforming. It is just something to be cautious about and I would need to fully understand the adjustments management are making before relying on the Non-GAAP metric when it is that different from regular GAAP.
Share price tracks operating earnings and not GAAP. Looking at GAAP PE gives you false results. Like when Altria write off their Juul invetment to zero and it lowered GAAP EPS but not operating earnings. As the result share price ignored it completelly and GAAP PE looked high up to PE 24. Real PE was 9 and thats why stock delivered double digit annual returns since than.
20Y annual growth rate for GAAP EPS is 13,99% and 13,75% for non GAAP. No reason for concern. Both earnings grew at the same pace. GAAP was just more volatile thanks to write offs and share price clearly tracks adjusted EPS, so do not look at GAAP PE, its useless metric.
Hi Chuck, just curious as to when do you consider share dilution when shopping for value, as that doesn't seem to be mentioned in any of your videos. For example, ICLR has increased their shares by 56% since 2020. Would love to see a video that considers stocks that are strong compounders and have a strong share buy back program, thus increasing shareholder value. Thanks
When I am doing comprehensive due diligence, I look at a company through all the information provided by FAST Graphs. In this regard I can look at the financials, FUN Graphs, and/or fiscal fitness and I can evaluate share counts (buybacks, or share issues). Regarding issuing shares and buying back shares, I support issuing shares when valuations are high and buying back shares when valuations are low. To clarify I do not like to see a company buying their own shares if I would not consider buying them myself or vice versa. Finally, often when I do a video on an individual stock I will include a look at shares outstanding etc. Regards, Chuck
@FASTgraphs, ok. Thanks for the feedback, Chuck.
What is your take on the recent PBM news? The healthcare sector has taken a hit along with health insurers. How would you evaluate this and the possible effect on intrinsic value? The PBM risk seems much higher than before, so a larger margin of safety looks to be required
The simple answer is you would have to evaluate the effect on long-term earnings. In the long run, earnings determine market price. So your research and due diligence should focus on the long term impact that any news would dictate. And of course, as always, you should factor in current valuations based on the results to your research. You can always learn from the past but you can only invest in the future. Regards, Chuck
Chuck, are you still abiding by what you said a few weeks ago that the financial sector is the sector with the most value? I find healthcare could be even more undervalued than financials.
Maybe in some cases, but not as many healthcare stocks compared to financials. Nevertheless, there is value to be found in healthcare for sure. Regards, Chuck
Financials rally this year and especially after election so I think financials are now very overvalued as a group. Big cap financial stocks in SPY are the most expensive since 2008.
Will we ever get QQQ, S&P 400 and 600 ETFs? Fastgraphs has now two ETFs which are almost identical as Apple is now bigger than Russel 2000 so it would be great to have small and mid caps ETFs too.
Yes, we are working on adding an ETF package, however, it requires enormously complex calculations. thank you for your patience.
@@FASTgraphs Its surprising that Factset or S&P do not report these numbers like for SPY.
Why did not PFE pass the filter?
Forecast growth rate below 5%
Can you do a video on semiconductors? Ray Dalio has been buying a lot of those bargains that have been dropping for half a year now and a lot of them have good peg ratios.
I will cover semi conductors when I come to the information technology sector. This series will cover all 11 sectors when finished. Thanks
@FASTgraphs Awesome, can't wait
Although Pfizer isn´t growing much - they seem heavily undervalued with a good balance sheet.
Hey Chuck goodmorning Gid be with you
Gid is giid!
👍🙏😊
BDX I AM IN>
After struggling with investments that didn’t work out, I’m exploring ETFs as a more stable option for building long-term wealth. What are the top 5 ETFs you'd suggest for someone starting with a lump sum?
S&P or Dow Jones. EM ex China. Small Cap Value Weighted. Bonds.
SCHG set it and forget it.
In no order: 1) VOO 2) QQQM 3) SCHG/VUG 4) VTI 5) SCHD/DGRO. Personally I put down 1.2m$ on few ETFs, still diversifying. it was this time last year I made my first break through with a liquid 370k. Handed it to a trader here in TX, I get weekly pay out which I put back on long term ETF's. Tesla will be a huge buy for me when the market bottoms.
Thank you so much guys, I already added VOO and QQQM, can you share this Pro with me Jack.
Yeah, Jennifer Kristie Taylor use her name to look her up.
Love your data, can we get an update on MPW sometime? Thanks again
There is a lot going on as MPW works through the steward situation etc. At this point, I am in a wait-and-see posture. Simply stated, MPW controls hospital assets that are worth significantly more than the market value of their stock. Consequently, I continue to hold pending resolution of these matters. Here’s a link that may help from their website: assets-global.website-files.com/628fe2259e1c5d1172a8cca9/663ace79125b1c3a8b431842_Record%20Correction%205-7-24%20Final.pdf regards, Chuck
The stock market is grossly overvalued using past metrics. All new investable dollars should go to CASH funds. How long will this mania continue is anyone’s guess. Old people like me recognize the mania.
I agree that the market is grossly overvalued as I presented in the video. However, I also contend that it is a market of stocks and not a stock market. This simply means that in any market whether raging bull like today, a bear market like we had in 2008 in 2009, or even fairly valued market - that will always be individual stocks that are overvalued, undervalued, and/or fairly valued. My goal is to present research candidates that are fairly valued or undervalued even in today’s market. Regards, Chuck
So half of the list have different long term normal PE and yet Fastgraph still does not have screener for companies below blue lines and still calculate rate of return only to orange line. So you probably missed majority of deals as many below normal PE companies are not on the list. And also fast growers are not on the list as these trade at higher PE multiples and below earnings yield of 6%.
We are developing a screener that will be able to discover stocks as you asking. However, is a very complex process and we appreciate your patience. Regards, Chuck
VMAIMAL