Arthur Berman: "BRICS+, Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and Metaphysics" | The Great Simplification #92
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 24 ก.ค. 2024
- (Conversation recorded on October 5th, 2023)
On this episode, Art Berman returns to give a broad update on the state of global oil - from BRICS+ and shale oil to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and oil investment. As Art says, ‘oil is the economy’ and understanding the complex dynamics of the oil market provides insight into the entire economic system. How do geological luck and foreign policy create the global stage for oil markets? What is the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, have we been misusing it, and does it matter in comparison to larger energy policy blunders? What are the current dynamics affecting oil prices and how will this affect the long term out-look of oil availability?
Please note: this episode was recorded prior to the Israel/Palestine events of last weekend.
About Arthur Berman:
Arthur E. Berman is a petroleum geologist with 36 years of oil and gas industry experience. He is an expert on U.S. shale plays and is currently consulting for several E&P companies and capital groups in the energy sector.
More TGS Content with Art: • TGS Featuring Arthur B...
For Show Notes and More visit: www.thegreatsimplification.co...
00:00 - Episode highlight
00:33 - Introduction to Art
02:38 - Overview of the current world oil situation
09:16 - Alternative oil currency to the petrodollar?
11:01 - Effects of oil producing countries lowering their exports
14:38 - Growth in North American oil
16:33 - U.S. foreign policy in oil producing countries
24:05 - Energy blindness in political leaders?
27:31 - Shale oil in Europe
34:12 - Permian and Saudi Arabia
38:13 - Oil company profits
41:10 - US decline rates
48:21 - Relationship between oil and the economy
58:31 - Looking at the bigger picture
1:05:19 - U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR)
1:08:56 - Draining the SPR
1:16:07 - Art’s advice to listeners
1:19:38 - Advice to young people
1:22:10 - Career advice for young people
1:25:31 - What Art cares most about
1:27:21 - Magic wand
1:29:13 - Future conversations
I am a Vermont Yankee who has worked in the building trades for 50 years. The incredible amount of waste I have experienced from our throw away society should be calculated in our energy consumption. There is the potential to save enormous amounts of energy by reducing our waste.
Half the planet lives in poverty and we throw out 40 percent of our food supply. Every word you say is true, but at a fundamental level, no one cares. And they won't until it's too late. It's alredy too late, but most people don't know that yet.
Man we are eating nonsense. we are eating seeds that are dangerous the sperm counts are falling, obesity is off the charts... all the foods we eat there is oil in it... People ate a lot of meat especially meat grown on grass and tree hay. Eating lard, tallow vs today eating seed oils grown with the help of petroleum. We have to understand what is natural. If we stop eating and try eating more unprocessed foods the plastic pollution go away, if you shift 30% of food domestically produced the wastage of oil for importing it from Brazil will stop..
We need basic fundamental changes.
Talking about Jimmy at 55 mph? Humans descended from the Trees only to Stumble Upon HydroCarbons. Go Figure? Now "it's" a Predicament! Smart Ape? FYI: Never owned a used vehicle that could do 55 on Flat Ground! And now I'm nurturing Angry Earth Worms for my Spuds! @@sonnyeastham
I've also seen massive amounts of waste in just about every industry. And frankly in our civilization's rampant insatiable consumerism.
Exactly, in a way we have a huge buffer before we begin to feel real effects of peak oil
Berman is one of the best voices out there. Yes, let's get honest about the human predicament. Can't wait for the next follow up with him.
Very much in reality
Just my words - can’t wait for the follow up 🌎
hard to overstate the value of some of Nate's podcasts especially getting heavy hitters like Art whom I have followed for almost 2 decades. If these two were in charge of policy the future would be a lot less grim. There is real wisdom that you can sink your teeth into here.
Thank you gents, this kind of calmversation about real events with real perspectives is so important
Art is my favorite guest of yours, Nate. I could listen to him talk for hours. Hope maybe he starts his own podcast one day.
Greetings from Mexico City, since I discovered this channel I haven't missed a single episode. Every day I learn something or see things from a different perspective. For 13 years my concern has been the depletion of our cheap energy source, and the future of my children. Conversations like the one you had with Art today, calm me down a bit. Thank you
Spread the word to your friends ... I've been doing the same in Michoacan .. I would be nice if there were Spanish version
Well people also forget. Remember Elon musk saying Japan now sells more adult diapers then baby diapers. Population is collapsing. But that’s actually horrible for indebted nations. That’ll lead to bad outcomes for your kids if you think about it. It’ll reduce energy sure but collapsing economies lead to collapsing governments.
@@ronwalker4998 Antonio Turiel, Pedro Prieto y Edgar Ocampo.
So glad I never bred kids to face the suffering and death . Why people keep making babies after all this was clear 50 yrs ago . When cheap oil goes , and temperature goes up billions will starve
The Great Simplification is, far and away, my favorite podcast since I discovered it. Absolutely invaluable stuff you don't find anywhere else. Thanks so much, Nate!
This is not meant to disparage any of your past guests, you’ve had some brilliant guests Nate, but your conversations with Arthur (Art) Berman, are always enlightening, great conversations, reflecting whether we like it or not the impact Oil, (Gas and Coal) has on our lives. So may there be many more of these conversations with Art🤔
I second the motion. I watched session 5 yesterday, 4 just now, going to 3 tomorrow. These shows have added a great deal to my longtime study of climate and renewables. It's rather sobering.
Another one of Nate's very smart but but also very wise friends. Most of Nate's guests have that rare combination.
Thank you Art and Nate for your indepth and heartfelt discussions. We are emotional symbolic animals seeking meaning in things.
As Ernest Becker put it - ''Man will lay down his life for his country, his society, his family. He will choose to throw himself on a grenade to save his comrades; he is capable of the highest generosity and self-sacrifice. But he has to feel and believe that what he is doing is truly heroic, timeless, and supremely meaningful. The crisis of modern society is precisely that the youth no longer feel heroic in the plan for action that their culture has set up'' (The Denial of Death, 1972).
We try to justify our socioeconomic construct with magical narratives that reinforce our decision making which perpetuates the cyclic paradigm of destruction. Is there hope? We need something to strive for, not a vacuous goal of more stuff though. We need meaning, we need cultural grittiness that binds us together, not the shallow toothpaste and coca cola lifestyle adverts that offer false hope. We need culturally binding activities that connect us with nature and each other. We need to find an inner connection with our true selves. This is what we secretly desire, self-awareness and awareness of others that provide a sense of connection. We’ve done this before. Archaeological remnants and indigenous cultures alive today show us the way. The Great Simplification can be a transformation pathway, or we'll be forced to transform when fossil fuels run low and the ecological/ climate feedback loops gain momentum.
Best. Post. Ever. Thank you. Humans are capable of so much more than being slaves to voracious capitalism.
Excellent, truthful comment. I can never find words to express similar feelings. So, I keep it simple. We live in a world 🌎 of illusions. Yet very few humans understand the meaning of illusion. 😮
Time is running 🏃♀️ out.
Always thankful to see Art on the show!
Superb discussion that is full of wisdom.
Most corporate environmentalists also hated the recent documentary "Planet of the Humans," which pointed out the damage created by the supposedly "renewable" energy sources that are supposed to replace fossil fuels and solve our climate crisis.
Only because you didn't understand they were saying a capitalist fix is really a not fix.
This and many other podcasts provide enough thoughtful discussion to build a high school or college course around. I will share with my grandkids who will be so much better informed than their peers who miss this opportunity.
Nate and Art Berman. This is as good as it gets. Truly the A team.
i always look forward to interviews with Art Berman. no one knows oil better than he.
According to Wikipedia, in 1997 Vladimir Putin received a Ph.D. in economics (Candidate of Economic Sciences) at the Saint Petersburg Mining University, with his thesis focusing on the strategic planning of the mineral economy.
Much needed context, thanks for this *potential* truth it adds a great line for thought.
But Trump is surely still smarter than him, no?
@@rjridge6791 That was worthy of a sarcxastic smile.
Trump would be smart if he were not sucha Greedy SOB.
Loved this conversation. Amazing insights. Thanks to both Nate and Art for sharing this important information.
Thank you so much Nate. You've opened my eyes. What a gift and so apt to current affairs. Art, thank you so much for helping laypeople to understand this. You are a gift.
Art has something that we have so little of these days - words of wisdom. Thanks again, Nate
Thank you very much for having Art as your guest. He's terrific. The content of this podcast is most important to our lives.
Art and Daniel are my two favorite guests on the podcast. Art was the guest when I first discovered it in December.
Just happened upon this Podcast...enjoyed its content/format/flow.
I'm from the mid 50's, and believe the best thing for our future generations is to show them we're doing something...for their benefit (and ours).
I don't share the belief that renewables are pie in the sky thinking. Here in the UK, the obstacles to its deployment, are largely govt bureaucracy and ideology. There's an appetite for self financed renewable projects, but red tape and policy strangle it. There are literally thousands of project applications piling up, stalled. Even projects such as renewable installations by Octopus Energy for example, with planning permission etc, have been on hold for years due to stagnation concerning connection to the Grid.
And rest assured, many of our young generation, have already got used to having less...even with good jobs.
Looking forward to your next meeting and discussion...I've subscribed so I don't miss it.
And, there is, a lot good in life!
Brilliant analysis honest and clear.
One thing I know about the 1980's economy is that if I bought a Tool it would last 50 years, maybe 100. The telephones from back then never ever broke. If for some reason a machine broke, we could fix the damn thing.
Love Art .. very down to earth
Great conversation. Thank you, Art & Nate,
Thank you, this is quite interesting. Cheers from Yekaterinburg, Russia.
I swapped my car for a bike and improved my standard of living. A drop in my 'GDP' does NOT mean a drop in standard of living.
I AM SO glad I saw and heard this video!! Thankyou so much!
Art said it at the 1hr mark…there are no solutions only trade-offs, and no one wants to consider the trade-offs.
Thanks for this conversation I learned a lot
Thanks again for a great interview!
This was the interview that made me subscribe to your channel. Thank you so much.
Arthur's outlook is quite refreshinjg
awesome episode thank you. Stoked to hear you two will be doing regular episodes. Before seeing this one was uploaded recently I actually thought to myself "I'd like to hear Nate and Art talk but I've already listened to both episodes" -- So this was a pleasant surprise.
@54:15 this was the most salient question for me in the entire conversation
Thank you Nate! Great job
Lovely talk. Thanks guys
Thank you for this content.
Eminent domain rather than force majeure. Great pod. Great guest. Nate is a treasure.
yay Art is back :)
Thank you for a great conversation.
Thank you for another Informative Interview. 👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻
Great interview with Art.
Spiritual nectar of the Gods! - Keep it coming Nate!
A super interesting guest, Nate. Thanks for having him on and I look forward to his next visit. BRICs, SPRs, salt caverns, North America's place in the world oi supply...all kinds of interesting tangents to consider. Well done!
At 40:01 Art says - "Oil companies are no better or worse than any other kind of corporation that's in it for the money. I mean that's the system we have got. It's not a question of whether I agree with it or not."
Actually, that is precisely the question that will determine if we as a species survive or not.
It we continue with the over simplistic myth that competition can solve all problems, and that evolution is all about competition, then we must, logically, end up destroying the systemic constraints that make our level of complexity possible.
The reality of evolution is deeply more complex, and it is much more accurate to say that all new levels of complexity in evolved systems are based upon new levels of cooperation, and in order to survive, every new level of cooperation requires evolving ecosystems of cheat detection and mitigation systems in order to prevent the cooperative core from being overrun and destroyed by cheating strategies.
Arguably, most of finance and governance now fits the definition of cheating strategies.
The cooperation that allowed humanity to get to this point is being eaten out from the inside by the financial system,
Sure - we need freedom - I am no friend of central control - but freedom demands responsibility if it is to survive, and right now responsibility is "missing in action" from many aspects of our systems.
Too much or too little freedom both end in destruction, and responsibility is demanded to find that optimal balance point in any specific context.
Up to that point, I was goin along with what Art was saying, but at that point he stepped off the cliff.
At 59:55 Art says "There are no solutions" and Nate says "There are responses, not solutions".
Both of those are wrong, but within the context of accepting the current economic system, both are correct.
The only class of solutions I see, the only class that have human survival as a long term outcome, involve fundamental reform of the economic system.
I agree, there are no "business as usual" solutions to this.
I do not agree that there are no solutions; and I agree that the solutions are unpalatable, even unthinkable, to many.
My projections have nothing to do with emotions and passed events, they have to do with fundamental systems theory, and a deep understanding of the strategic complexity of evolution as a system.
We have an abundance of energy. We have a nuclear reactor 93 million miles away that produces abundant energy. We live on a massive ball of matter, and we have another sizeable ball of matter 250,000 miles away. We have mass and energy aplenty.
What we lack is systems that allow us to safely use energy and mass at that scale.
We cannot attempt that level of technology if we are coming from a belief structure that sees competition as delivering optimal solutions to all problems. We cannot survive competition with that level of technology, it is effectively giving nucs to terrorists.
That level of technology is only survivable if everyone acknowledges the fundamental role of cooperation in complex life, and if our economic systems actually meet the fundamental needs of everyone.
That is doable, and it is far from business as usual.
It is fundamental reform of economic and political systems.
It is accepting that the fundamental definition of life is that of systems capable of searching the space of possible systems for survivable systems.
As such, freedom is a fundamental aspect of search, and it is always in dialectic tension with the responsibility required to keep within the realm of the survivable, which demands eliminating cheating at any and all levels. And cheating currently dominates finance.
So search means eternal expanding diversity, and eternal novelty, and it demands respect for diversity and novelty, and it means changing the economic system to remove the current sets of cheating strategies. That means reforming the agents currently committed to cheating strategies. That will be hard for many of them, and it is either do it, or perish - there are no intermediary strategy sets that I have found that have long term survivability. And I have been in this space for nearly 50 years, and my autistic brain has searched a lot of strategy space that few have even conceived of.
We can all have a life that is great, but not by any form of business as usual, and not based on profit at any cost, we need deeply more complex values than that, and we need cooperation in diversity.
We need to get off fossil fuels as quickly as reasonably possible, and that is nearly impossible in the current economic system.
1:28:52
Agree fully with Nate when he says "enjoy life and contribute to the collective" - that is fundamental cooperation.
We need that at the heart of our economic systems.
We can no longer survive the overly simplistic nonsense that "profit at any cost" is sufficiently responsible.
More is demanded of our systems, and of each and every one of us.
Our systems need to support life, not exploit it.
That is fundamental reform of economics. Without that, there is no long term survival, not in any sense that most of us would want to survive in.
Love the Art podcasts, how do we get wise men in positions of influence. Oh I forgot we want more and wanting more leads to corruption. I tell my kids that being fit and healthy will be the key for the future. Those barrel of oils are not going to do your in the future.
Conversation essentielle. Merci!
Thanks Nate and Arthur. Always enjoy these discussions. This is what I want for young people to do: Fall in love, have fun, look after each other, get married and have lots of babies. 💛
Fall in love? Tinder ruined that. Get married and have children? Who is going to pay for that? Most millennials and genz are living hand to mouth atm. Having children while renting ia a recipe for an unstable childhood. You must be really out of touch with what the average person is going through right now.
@@rebdomine1 hahaha yah. Fall in love. The rest is noise that will settle down soon after.
@@missh1774 63% of young men are single.
You forgot to add a 🙃to indicate your sarcasm!
@@Patrick_Ross 🙄 Thank you?
The problem with changing climate is not so much short term catastrophe as much as irreversibility. A geologist especially knows this. There was no one during the Permian extinction that could turn off the volcanoes to reduce 30 million years of extinction, but we can choose to turn off the furnaces.
I'm looking forward to your next podcast. That was very good plan, let's talk about future outcome and let's see where, most probably, it will take us.
When things get very mix up, I have very offen find my peace, lisen Art Berman. Best regards.
I was intrigued by Art's statement that OPEC+ had reduced oil production by 4 million barrels/day (mb/d) in the last 12-13 months. I assume that he meant crude oil + condensate, what I term oil, rather than total liquid hydrocarbons which includes things like natural gas liquids, alcohols, refinery gain and other organic liquids. Out of curiosity I did my best to check this out. I assume he means in September 2023 versus say October 2022. I say October because that was the month before OPEC+ said they were going to cut oil production by 2 mb/d starting in November 2022. A problem I have is that the most recent U.S. DOE/EIA global oil production data is for May 2023 so I will go with that.
In October 2022, OPEC+ produced 49.088 mb/d. In May 2023, OPEC+ produced 47.982 mb/d. The difference is 1.106 mb/d. Did OPEC+ reduce production dramatically after May? Was Art including something beyond crude oil + condensate? I guess that is a question for another day.
I will say that OPEC and OPEC+ don't necessarily do what they say they are going to do. OPEC+ was going to start a 2 mb/d production reduction in November 2022 but in December, their total oil production was 49.394 mb/d, 0.306 mb/d higher than in October.
What are your thoughts on Peter Zeihan who seems to be very bullish on American prosperity? His points make a lot of sense after globalism the only state with the demographics and resource base to have an internal economy is the continental US.
Am watching in anticipation Now 🙌🕊🌏💖
If high oil prices is the silent killer of our economies, it follows that low oil prices are the killer of our environment. Get real, which of these should we be fretting about?
For an update on the Permian Basin, according to data from the U.S. DOE/EIA, Permian Basin oil production (crude oil + condensate) reached a plateau at ~5.8-5.9 mb/d during this summer. For September, the US DOE/EIA was projecting a 13,000 b/d decline and for October they were projecting a 26,000 b/d decline. It will be interesting to see what they project for coming months.
I haul saltwater in Kingfisher, OK. Excellent show!!!
Very acute foreign policy analysis...
These observations are investor class views, history of growth for the past 50 years is not what the working class remembers. People are amazed by the changes, cars work so much better, cell phones and IT have been miraculous, but personal resources like housing affordability, access to higher education, household budgets, these are seen as having been in decline. We can eat the rich (the investor class) and burn all their possessions to stay warm in the winter, as Art is saying, life will go on. Less consumption and global population decline are the greatest hope for all of us as long as we’re all not thrown out of our homes and racing in mass across borders for opportunity elsewhere, we just need imagination. Willing cannibal Pollyanna philosophy will keep us optimistic and spur our oligarchs to muster some imagination. We are learning. Iron Domes don’t work. That could be an unfortunate and tragically costly lesson, but if it can spur imagination there is at least a lesson learned.
So what I'm hearing you say is, we will continue to kick the can down the road til we realize that the next time we go out to kick it again, we realize were standing on the rim of the sinkhole. Sounds about right, humans typ don't change their habits under their own volition. 😢
Got to love the word bungle.
Two good guys...
I interviewed Peter Wadhams regarding arctic sea ice when I was working on a doc series about a small cichlid of Lake Tanganyika. He was surprised that I needed his input on the issue.
I keep waiting for one of your guests to dive into the short term consequences for agriculture and fresh water supply of the total loss of arctic sea ice. It seems no one is willing to connect these dots.
A deep look into climate effects are a bit beyond the scope of this podcast. Maybe ask Nick Breeze at Climate Genn, he is the sharpest podcast reporter on climate in my book. Dave of "Just have a think" would be a good one too. Both of m are British, but that don't make a difference in the items they look at.
Paul Beckwith ...best one for actual science on climate change.
I agree decisions made by the Baby Boomer generation were not specifically targeted toward today's youth however having two college-aged children my experience is they are more informed and aware than they may be given credit for. They have a nuanced perspective on the generational divide and how it relates to current events, particularly the impact of COVID-19 on young people. Lockdowns have disproportionately affected their generation, impacting areas like education, rent/housing, transportation, and food. Student debt and its potential devaluation due to advancements in Generative AI is also a pertinent concern as technological advancements reshape the employment landscape and the value of certain types of education. While older generations may have made decisions with long-term consequences, young people face immediate and substantial challenges, which understandably affect their perceptions and attitudes. Are they being specifically targeted? No. Should they be taking it personally? Probably not. But that was an easier conversation for my wife and I pre-COVID-19.
Could you explain what decisions were made by one generation while they were young that made a difference towards only them?
Or any decisions they made that affected society in any way?
You seem to think one generation in all of time have somehow have a secret connection where they make decisions that affect the world in their sleep or some way.
The boomers'were alive at a time where fossil fuels meant an explosion in humanity, it had nothing to do with the second wwar and coming back from it other than the haber bosch process to liquefy air to make fertiliser, which meant double the amount of people now that would normally exist. If this happened 1000 years ago the same jump in humanity would have happened.
No-one thought the US was going to go off the gold standard, no-one thought debt was going to be money but since 72 and when debt is money, then new debt has to enter the market if anybody wants a pay rise, which is great when we have productivity growth, if we just have inflated growth, maybe the ponzi scheme can continue but if money comes from debt then your college kids should hope they can get into the highest cost education they can get.
Boomers have seen a lot of change, to go from the childhood they would have had, the ones I know have gone from a time of most people living in the country, no hot water, unless boiled on the wood stove, they have seen the entire world at least treble, because of fossil fuels, something we are told we now must get off. Older generations have seen a threepence being able to buy a round of beers to now what they would have got paid for the month.
Older generations experienced a time of growth and these rise and falls have happened before throughout history, blaming or saying one generation somehow had a handle on how things went is wrong in my opinion. Younger generations are going to experience a much older population than any other time, they are of course experiencing a much fuller world than any other time, systems that are collapsing while still propping up the old one, more pollution than ever before but that literally has been true since every boomer was born.
There is no secret connection. From their perspective, Boomers have been running our government for decades and the policies they created benefit them at the expense of everyone else. 30+ years of irresponsible fiscal and monetary policies. Unfunded entitlements. Never ending wars. Essentially “kicking the can down the road” and dumping over 33 trillion in debt (and growing) on future generations. From their perspective one generation took out a mortgage on all future generations. Not saying their right but I’m also not going to argue with them and say their wrong either.
There are real solutions, there are people willing to do them. The people are called permaculturists, "live simply so that others can simply live", Urban Farmers, natural builders. More people would do these if mainstream media promoted these lifestyles instead of promoting alcohol, drugs, violence and stupid consumption.
How can the millions live or eat from permiculture... Its for the few rich.
Where can I find that chart of the exporting oil-producers?
The question I would like to ask Arthur. If the Western world decarbonise to renewables for transport and heating/cooling. This would reduce oil usage. Can the products manufactured from oil gas still be produced.. So, can we produce the materials without burning the stuff.
Please turn down the intro music sound. Every time I listen to an episode with my earphones I get a horrible shock when that comes on!
use your volume control :-}
noted, thanks. will alert the producer!
User error 😂
Hold your horses.... I'm from Mexico and the reason we call Americans "Norteamericanos" is because we have a gripe many times using the term Americanos because all of us in Latin America say consider ourselves AMERICAN since we are on the American continent... but Mexico is considered in our minds part of NORTH AMERICA... also the U.S. name in Spanish is ESTADOS UNIDOS DE AMERICA... but many times it is wrongfully reffered to as ESTADOS UNIDOS DE NORTEAMERICA just to make it clearer or just out of custom. When it comes to what used to be the North American Free Trade Agreement... (now with a different name), México DOES CONSIDER ITSELF PART OF NORTH AMERICA for sure! (geographically México is part of North America... strictly speaking at least form the Isthmus of Tehuantepec up it is!)
Such an interesting listen, I then watched much of it on youtube and followed along in the transcript. Everything Art says makes total sense, except for one thing. We will not go back to the standard of living of the 1960s, 70s, or 80s because of (a) a much impoverished world, and (b) far worse economic inequality.
Hey Nate, thanks for another fantastic video!
Been thinking(dangerous I know). When comparing a barrel of oil to four/five years equivalent human labour, should we not compare to horses instead as the work would be done by horses rather than people?
I was thinking previously that a barrel would need to increase in price to near human income for people to stop using oil but we wouldn’t be swopping oil for human labour it would be for animal labour.
Question to Nate : did you have solar panels installed ? Would you recommend others to have solar panels installed ?
I would like to know Art’s take on the phenomenon of sludge settling in the bottoms of crude storage in both the SPR and Cushing, OK. How does this sludge reduce the amount of actual usable stored crude oil?
Art is great thanks. FYI minute 16:00 There is no Southern Border, check out the news.
The last podcast with Art wasn't great, but this one hit it out of the park.
Your subjective opinion has been noted.
Seeds are incredibly abundant, when we save them :)
Energy consumption per capita has been fairly flat globally (and slightly declined in the US) since 1980's (though the latter may be mostly due to off-shoring high-energy processing to China and other places). So if you want to live as well as you did in the 80's on a lot less energy, you're going to need to increase efficiency a lot.
That generally will mean investing more energy up front. EVs are a good example, where it may take a couple years to pay off the extra energy debt as compared to an ICE car, but it ends up using quite a lot less energy over the life of the car. Mass transit might be another, but I think that mostly pays off when masses of people must travel substantial distances in a city every day. A better solution will be to not force people to move those distances if they can work online or near home.
He needs to talk about the attempt to cap oil price.
As Gail Tverberg says the market can’t sustain higher prices. So that means no shale. Middle Eastern countries implode as they need $85 oil to pay there entitlements etc etc
The market does not get to decide the price. If they want oil, they will have to pay for it. If they do not want to pay, they go without. The easy solution that this podcast discusses over and over is to decide what you can do without and plan ahead.
@@stephenboyington630 Extactly
Senior Petroleo. Our favorite.
Good and informative discussion. Will have to disagree that Biden should not have leverage the SPR. In my view, that's why it's there. And due to the inelasticity of oil prices - only a small nudge can make a big difference in prices (just as discussed earlier in the video - where a 4% withdrawal of world supply causes big swings in prices.)
@@sonnyeastham So when GW Bush released SPR in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, he should have started a war first? Oh, wait. Never mind.
A simple solution to maintain living standards is to reduce population in line with reduction in energy availability. A global one child policy would sort the problem out in a generation
Malthusian! Also known as creepynomics... China tried this it was a complete disaster.. The entire system is a pyramid scheme you need lots of suckers at the bottom
Nate is awesome.
The guest, well, I hope I don’t offend anyone and if I could tell him directly I would, but, I beg to differ with his defeatist and limited world perspective that underlies most of what he says. He underestimated his fellow man AND the challenges that we face on many levels….but, he is a clever and empathetic grandfather, the utmost respect.
Nate, have you read the article named "complex systems won't survive the competency crisis"?
Most of the things we spend our time worrying about, never come to pass...On the other hand, the changes we are making rank up there with the planets worse extinction rates of all time..And every civilization to ever exist has collapsed in horror, and the complexity and interdependence of our civilization spells doom..It's OK to acknowledge exactly where we are at, and try and adapt for what is coming down the pike..I would and do learn carpentary, plumbing, electrical, welding, solar, gardening, motors, etc.,Real life skills, not our societies version of careers...
Mexico still has a lot of oil reserves
There is videos of the estate of Tamaulipas which is border with Texas where oil is almost coming out of the ground
There is something similar in the southern states of Mexico
However the president of Mexico decided to produce oil only for Mexican consumption
That is a smart move why to sell oil at today prices when the same oil can be sold in a few years for much more.
Look no further than the richest families list to understand who is owning politicians, countries, corporations, resources, banks, and therefore all of us, stop thinking it’s democracy, communism, fascism, liberalism, Islam, Christianity, technology or any other factors it’s the billionaire families with the power to make our world according to their needs and securing their interests in power and ownership to keep their families in power into the future.
food production, cloth production, production of electronics should be domestically produced so those big giant global supply chains burning oil should be conserved.
How is it possible that no body go and explore in Antarctica ? North pole ? Indian ocean.
@@sonnyeastham yea and we have to decentralize the entire system, this bs laws of permits and this permission, that permission... it has to be thrown out of the window. Our diets should change as well what people ate in 1940's and more domestically produced food.
I'm watching this episode for the second time and it's at least as good the second time around. I'm wondering what has happened to the Alaskan fields, I thought there was a 3 or 4 billion barrel reserve there at least. Is it too expensive to produce? Also wondering how this squares with your guest "Doomsberg". He seems to believe that every molecule of carbon will be burned, if not by the west, than by somebody else.
Energy is valued for the work it will do. Due to the machinery and infrastructure needed, that has its own energy cost, the limit to the cost of energy is a fraction of the value of the value of the work it will do.
B.F. Skinner, Edward Bernays, Norbert Wiener. What part of Every biped under 24 having all their life choices dictated by their handheld are you not seeing?
Yes we are in a predicament….we can’t solve it we have to learn to live with it- or not. See previous Nate discussions with Kevin Anderson and Iain McGilchrist.
Here in Minnesota, we may eventually use Trees as a Fuel Source.
You can hook up a simple Steam Engine to an Electric Generator and use warm water to heat a place.
I quite appreciates the 1960s and 70s.
I was outside much the Time, we were too Poor to have a TV. I became a Library Rat, I loved reading.
Learned to play Guitar and Violin, spent endless hours Fishing.
My biggest observation is the Energy decline will have high Regional Variation not Uniformity.
Climate Change is a Story of Uniformity.
We have two extremely well operated Nuclear Power Plants here.
Pipelines from Canada and North Dakota are not likely to run dry anytime soon.
Just because Germany is on a mad dash to the Stone Age doesn't mean we are jumping on the Bandwagon.
I'm teaching my Grandchildren. My oldest now 14 is #2 in Mathematics in a 200,000 student School District.
He was playing Poker around the Dining room Table from 3 years old.
There's plenty of good Times ahead. My family don't give 3 Year olds much of a break.
The biggest Large Scale misconception floating around now is that of Global Uniformity.
I doubt many here in Minnesota will be Crying our Eyes out if Winters get a little Warmer due to Global Warming.
I'm Poor, but saved up for a New Pair of Winter Boots for Ice fishing.
I shall while away many hours on a Frozen Lake watching Aurora Borealis in the Dark while catching Fish and swapping stories with neighbors over shots of Blackberry Brandy.
Localism is the New Globalism. Every place shall not be the Same on Energy decline.
I don't know if my other younger Grandchildren will be as good as Math as my 14 year old, but they are great Swimmers and love Fishing.
Hope Springs eternal.
Winter is Brutal here, we must Adapt or Die here.
"It's a beautiful thing."
Not a lot of people will know how to run, let alone make a steam engine and energy for the house is not necessarily the thing that needs replacing. The issue for your grandchildren is people are saying we must change while no-one does, no-one knows how. All plastics come from oil petrol, diesel, propane are byproducts, how do we as a society move away from oil products in our personal lives? The clothes have changed to ones with oil in them, the roads have asphalt that is oil, the food is because of gas liquefying air, our engines have the power of 150 horses, that throw enormous amounts of energy into the atmosphere, burning wood won't replace that.
Great! Except your forests will all burn. They're not adapted to drought and a higher vapor pressure deficit (look it up!).Your fish and animals will die. Your agriculture will fail. It's fantasy to think that global warming means your days will simply be 2 degrees warmer. Algal bloom will make the water unswimmable. Refugees may overwhelm your area. More? The nuclear plants are great targets in the next war. Where is that waste going, remind me? Someone just said about middle east - "As long as I am in pain, you are not safe". It's folly to think that any area is immune, or safe. Sorry but I practice acceptance and realism.
@@antonyjh1234 People make Technology with whatever Material is available.
The output will be highly variable based on Local not Global Resources.
Steam Engine type technology has been around since about the year 100 AD. Many things made of Plastic were formerly made of Metal and Wood.
A major component of any local Environment Prosperity is dependent on the adaptability of the People in the Environment.
Education of Children is most important in regard to optimizing Prosperity through an Energy decline because it enables better use of Resources such as making simple Wood Burning Steam Engine Technology to produce Electricity or provide heating and cooling to a neighborhood as was common in America before Coal and other Petroleum Resources were put to work.
A main point made by Art is that life was good in the 1970s despite lower Energy Consumption per Capita.
I agree, and stretch that time back to the 1800s.
Have you read about rocket stoves and rocket mass heaters?
People who find contentment in life with what they own are lucky. This society teaches from birth to get as much stuff as we can in life. Enough is never achievable.
Here's a radical idea: if the profit motive is going to stop the production of this product we cannot easily get off of, remove the profit motive. State oil instead of private oil. Public funding and operate at cost, or at loss. Money's fake; oil is real. Course, we have to work on weening ourselves off of it in the same manner, too.
OPEC+ both need higher oil prices for their economies and have little ability to produce more. In the period during the market share competition OPEC+ increased drilling but did little to increase production. As Art said; Supply will meet the demand that has the ability to pay.
The geology of the formation of oil particularly but fossil fuels, and commodities has been well understood since the 1950s, there is little left to be discovered, current reserves are in rapid decline. From about 1980, the volume of oil discoveries has declined to a small fraction of yearly extraction.
Commentary him every day or weekly???
Yes let’s go back back to living simply in our yesterdays of the 1960’s 70’s and 80’s
Not having to want want want everything then thrown into the tip 🕊🌏
Could someone tell us something about Enhanced Oil Recovery? Are the industry insiders positive about the potential of recovery using anthropogenic CO2 as a feedstock? Is it all too expensive?