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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 28 ก.ค. 2017
- Your friendly local weather person says there's a 10% chance it will rain today, so you throw on your flip-flops and head out to enjoy a beautiful day. Next thing you know, you're running through puddles, trying to get out of a torrential downpour. Bad luck or bad weather person?
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Sources:
www.weather.gov/ffc/pop
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www.forbes.com/sites/marshall...
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It means it's gonna rain if you have something important to do. And stay sunny if you don't have to do anything
[Yoshikage_Kira] quite the opposite I'd say. It means it'll stay sunny when you are working and rain when you have the day off!
Nani?!
Or it'll rain when you have no umbrella but not rain when you remember to bring it.
Solis yare
Solis anata ga watashi no shubui desu ka?
You should tell this to the cows. Apparently, whenever it's supposed to rain, they will all group up together and lie down in the field. Supposedly they do it to keep each _udder_ dry, but who knows.
60 Second Success nice.
Hahaha. Each udder! :-)
60 Second Success they do it to reserve heat
60 Second Success you are telling me they getting wet
60 Second Success this is funny and smart at the same time 😎😂😂😎
I still don't understand meteorologists on the TV. I've never heard them actually talk about meteors.
Master Therion Badum-PISH!
Master Therion meteorology is the study of the sky, basically...
Haha, funny joke!
GamingW/O Friends There's always one :D Just a little word play!
"Meteor" is baSICALLY "anything that falls from the sky", not just fancy spacerocks.
Man i allways feel like such a smart ass when i tell my friends about stuff i learned from this channel.
Same! But I rather be a smart ass than a dumb ass
Don't, it'll make you such a bore at parties. I suggest you become a normal person, and take up squash. I don't know what that is either, but it's a conversational topic.
me too except i dont have friends
You lucky fuckers get all the breaks. When I was young I had to go down to the library and read encyclopedias all day long to find out the same things that you kids find out in 10 minutes at home, scratching yourself in your underwear. Now get off my lawn!!
+Zom Bee Nature
17? God, I wish I was anywhere near 17. I've got a kid that's nearly 17.
I enjoy seeing a 100% chance of rain, only to find out that it doesn't end up raining...
I enjoy seeing a 0% chance of rain, only to find out that it ends up raining...
oh man i miss seeing the storms stride down a valley on legs of lightning! & being 30 miles out from a town in the desert,,i miss the stars.dont miss the heat or allergies though lol
3C Kitani by definition, the meteorologist could have 0% confidence in their answer. they aren't lying.
I think there's also an incentive to overestimate rain because weather forecasters get more negative feedback when the weather is worse than they predicted.
BumblebeeCannon i hate that too
I always figured that a 50% chance of rain meant that there was just as good a chance of rain as there is no rain and so it's basically just like saying "we have no idea if it's going to rain or not"
THE Meteorologist IN MY AREA IS NOT THAT CONFINDENT HE'S ALWAYS CHANGING HIS MIND
lol @ that copy/paste
ITS MY BEST FRIEND ;)
Because weather is ALWAYS changing.
50% chance of rain ? how do i get this ability? is it a passive ability?
Tell Me This 😂😂
your enchanting must not be a high enough level yet
The ability slows down the movement speed of any opponent in the affected area. It's actually pretty useful
Yes, it's a passive, but to get it you need to first go to the Cloud Palace of Zeus and defeat him to obtain the Pendent of Rain then you need to travel all the way down to the ocean and toss it in, making the ocean split in half, after walking for 3.14159265459 miles you have to perform a traditional African rain dance. After that a door should appear and after you go inside you'll have to face Jeff Kaplan in a 1v1 duel, which you'll probably lose, since Jeff has a 99.9999999% of winning, and after he kills you your game is completely reset, but if you do beat him, he'll teach you the ability. Of course though, he'll only teach you it if you have a Trophy from a gaming competition in South Korea along with the tears of a unicorn, blood of a dragon, and star dust from the center of the universe, oh, and an enchanting skill of 50.
How often can it proc?
Always wondered this, thanks for the video!
Thanks for explaining, I've always wondered about that
yay your back Michael!
So this is slightly different than I had it explained to me once by a local meteorologist.
They told me the way it was calculated (estimated, really) was more like this:
X% chance of rain was based on the number of times it rained in circumstances nearly identical to the current ones, whatever they may be.
For instance, if they say it’s a 60% chance of rain, it means that in the past when the weather was recorded, when circumstances (temperature, humidity, fronts, etc.) were similar to the current ones, it rained 60% of the time, so there is a 60% chance that it might rain now, as these circumstances are similar to those past ones.
Not sure if this is even right, but it makes sense to me.
That's how it *should* be done but due to lack of monitoring through the years there's still big holes in the empirical data to base such predictions on.
So instead they just decided to take a couple of kinda relevant numbers, do some arbitrary mathematics on them to come up with a number that means nothing.
THANK U! U EXPLAINED THIS PERFECTLY!
Perfect! Great job. Meteorologist here.
I always assumed it meant approximations in land mass area, so 50% meant about half the region the meteorologist covers was expected to receive rain. Seems I was not too far off, though I had no idea that confidence level was a factor in the calculation. Interesting to know!
I’m pretty sure you’re right. I was always under the assumption 50% chance of rain meant 50% of that area will be raining.
The "short straw" comment betrays an anti-rain bias. Some of us like rain.
Not if you're working out in the open. While it's raining.
Nah even then. Sometimes _especially_ then.
brian554xx Your comment betrays an anti short straw bias. Some of us like short straws.
LegolasGuk 👏 ❤👍
1:38 not to mention that meteorologists/broadcasters are highly confident they have the right answer
Hi Hank and the rest of scishow!!!
This raises more questions than answers.
have wanted to know this for sooo long
thank you!
Oh goody, one of the variables in the equation is completely subjective... And this is why I trust my window as my weather forecast.
One time I checked the weather forecast. It said 0% chance of rain at that time. Meanwhile, it was raining out.
A week ago it happened again! On a related note, I should find a better forcast service.
What is the threshold used to determine which symbol to use for a given day when generating an extended forecast graphic?
For example, a "rain" graphic may appear on a forecast for a day later in the week, but it would be unlikely said day would bring nonstop or even a 12+ hour majority of rain during the 24 hour period.
“I’m 50% sure that there’s a 50% chance of raining tomorrow” bru what?? 😭
"What Does "A 50% Chance of Rain" Actually Mean?"
Well it's a determination made by the Bullshitometer...
I live rain so much when it’s raining I love to hear the sound and watch the clouds how beautiful they are ❤😂
So I may want to have access to forecasts for many small local areas and for each hour of the day. And then lookup those forecasts that would apply to where I plan to be that day.
I remember Pittsburgh local news station's favorite go-to was 30%. 30% chance of rain all week long. Which taken as an aggregate, was almost always guaranteed to be right, since it basically rains twice a week in Pittsburgh. Which is 30% of 7 days.
"The short straw" I live in the Valley. We get ecstatic when it actually rains. We see rain in the forecast and go, "Yeah, right."
More weather stuff!
Could you please explain transposable elements in maize for us?
GOD THANK YOU FOR THIS
I'm 100% confident that Aranda's new hair is looking fine
His voice was interrupting the conversation his hands were having.
There's a 50% chance it's already raining
Perfect video! That’s a subscribe from me, dawg.
This is fitting, given the fact that my house just flooded a bit yesterday after two back to back flash floods
Cloudy with a Chance of Meteorologists.
wut..?
Ur mum
To further understand the likelihood of rain, it would be beneficial to know the size of the forecast area in question. Is this my neighborhood district, city, county, etc?
yeah,,alot of them have been wrong for my area this last summer used to you could count on the3 day forecast being close to it,, but now its all nope , makes me wonder how the eclipse will affect the weather?
#question If a water strider gets under water - can it get back on the surface or does it have to swim to the shore and dry off before it can?
You really had some tongue twisters in this one!
Clear to Partly Cloudy with a Slight Chance of Rain.
"10% chance of rain" - you SHOULD expect to experience rain one in every ten times you see this!
How exactly do you measure "level of confidence"?
It might rain or it might not. Depending on where you are. At a certain time of day. Sounds pretty useful to me.
I've read multiple articles that say that PoP does not give you the chance of being rained on in your area, when that is literally exactly what it means.
in south texas rain is drawing the long straw
My question is, when they predict precipitation for a certain viewing area, how big is that area? More specific to my location, if the prediction is for the Kansas City viewing area, how big is that area?
Its the man who does not blink!
so was there any amount of the 188 who were surveyed that used the same methods with a reasonable accuracy rate?
How do we do we get heart Burns and indejestions and what do they do? I get heart Burns and intejestions a lot.
*Ollie: its gone rain*
It means "We haven't got the foggiest idea!"
What's the formula for measuring confidence??
This is why I use the long radar to watch the weather. Once you have learned how to read what you are looking at. You are able to plan outside events better, but you have to stay daily updated on the radar, as it can change day to day.
It means there's a 50% it won't rain
It means a 50% chance that it *will* rain
;)
but it means theres a 50% chance it wont
Exactly. In our area they always teach that, PoP means what percent of the area will get precipitation, not the chance it will rain. And they are often wrong, this year.
Ahh the bleached tips are back!
Always thought it mean't the local weather person didn't have a clue if was going to rain or not.
1. Why short straw? I love rain.
2. Where is the facial hair?
love you scishow
Wow, more complicated than I thought... I just thought it was the chance of rain happening at some point during the day of the forecast.
Makes sense.
It's still has yet to forecast falling space rocks
You learn new things every day. Today I learned that I will never understand meteorologists. I was not sure before, but now it's a fact.
That explains why the weather report is usually not right for where we are.
I thought that the answer was going to be obvious, but I didn't realize that land area was taken into account. The equation makes a lot of sense!
It's not raining, it's sprinkling.
It's always at 10% in GA
I should of been a meteorologist, I could be wrong and still get paid 😂
I know this video is old but I've been directed here by Hank's new video on '5 Ways Humans Make It Rain". Wanna hear about "picking the short straw"?? In June, 2010, I left for a wedding in the morning. The forecasts locally were very positive, gave the area for the entire day a 5% chance of precipitation. And around here, 5% is more along the lines of 0%. This was what was expected in the weekly forecasts as well. I believe we weren't even on the map for any risks according to national metrology. So I went to my friend's wedding. My husband had to stay home because he had just had surgery on his ankle. So I took a friend. My home is in NW Ohio, and the wedding was about 4 hours away in Coshocton, Ohio, in SE Ohio. But I had a bad feeling and I had no idea why. After the wedding, we all went back to a cottage they had rented for a small party, and behind the cottage was a tributary. It was part of a whole system that begins at Lake Erie. We were outside for about 2 hours or so... beautiful weather, sun was out, it was a perfect day overall. But the tributary began as just another typical, tiny river and in 2 hours, it had burst it's banks and was creeping up to the backyard. Creepy AF, but I wasn't putting 2 and 2 together. So my friend and I, around 1am, head out to our hotel room, blah blah blah, I get us checked in, it's all good. I sat down, turned on my cell phone, and as soon as it found a tower, I couldn't even count how many text messages were sent to me. When it finally stopped, I called my husband. Before I could even say hello, I could hear tornado sirens. 5% chance of precipitation turned into 4 EF4 tornadoes that destroyed my whole town. Now that is seriously drawing the short straw right there.
My meteorologist friend says that he will still go to an outdoor event as long as the probability is below 80%.
What a coincidence. I just checked the weather forecast 5 min ago and it said 50% chance of precipitation tomorrow
Do a video of what makes all garbage have that very distinct smell
There's always a 50% chance of rain. It either rains or it doesn't 50/50
The weather in 100 years can be forecast with absolute certainty but not even close this afternoon's weather. Thus preach the Al Gorites.
and this is why it's better to trust the doppler radar
I watch my weather rock and listen for the rain-stick. :o)
Ryukachoo which isn’t a forecast...
If there are 10 meteorologist in a room and 5 of them think its going to rain..... 50 % chance of rain.
100% reason to remember the rain
It just means that it will Definitely Rain if you have forgotten to bring your umbrella but won't rain if you have it.
The only job you can always be wrong about and never get fired.
how do old people feel like it's gonna rain in their bones? is it a humidity thing?
It's because they're going to die soon, and so are closer to god.
Jabberwocky Draco it's a pressure thing when bad weather comes the air pressure changes
Barometric pressure changes
I remember one day that produced supercell thunderstorms and a tornado with wrap around rain curtains. The forecast had been 15% chance of rain. "It probably won't rain on your picnic." the meteorologist said.
I went to Florida once, and there is a 60% chance that it was going to rain. We didn't go to the waterpark that day. The next day it was a 30% chance of rain so we went and ended up getting rained on.
It means it gonna rain!
getting rain is drawing the short straw? I live in Phoenix, and we treasure every day that we are lucky enough to get rain.
1:01 - them's gaming words
If it says there's a 10% chance to rain, it will rain. Forget 50%, lol.
Basically the prediction is always right no matter how wrong it is.
Ok... it's 00:06 of sunday where I live, the forecast for yesterday was "80% chance of rain" and it didn't rain a drop in the entire city, so wtf?
This was very helpful... except that since the meteorologists admit to being inconsistent we don't really know what a particular forecast means.
Personally, I would rather see the % based on the chance of rain anywhere in the zone. If we knew there was a 10% or a 100% chance of rain within the city limits, we would know what to expect. Here in SF if you're dealing with the leading edge of a front either everyone is going to get wet or no one is. So the % would tell us if the front is going to reach us.
For the trailing edge, we would know the rain would be localized so a 10% chance would mean the back end of the front looks really dry and we probably won't get anything while 100% would tell us that some place are going to get clobbered.
Nate Silver says some meteorologists have a wet bias because surprise rain draws more complaints than surprise sunshine.
I would argue that there is always a 50% chance that is going to rain.
My teacher said that if Chuck said there is a 50% chance of rain, 50% OF HIS VIEWERS will experience rain.
well i sure hope it doesnt ran on my trip coming friday :(
why does the a/c in cars use up so much gas?
You know Google is a thing, right? More reliable than SciShow seeing your comment and actually taking your suggestion.
When you turn the AC on in your car, it uses energy supplied to it by the alternator. This energy is coming from the engine, which is using the fuel in your gas tank.
Yeah, last Tuesday it was raining like the end of the World, with furious winds and thunder. Looked at the phone weather and it said for that particular hour "Partially clouded with 30% chance of rain" ¬¬
Lol now I am more confused
Before the video I thought I knew what it meant, now I don't...