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There is one important factor left out. In the past, marathon runners were not specialists... they had a 5 - 10yr career on the track, then ran marathons at the end of their peak. Now... you get 19 & 20 yr olds skipping the track career & focusing on marathons only while still in their peak condition... ie specialists. Improvement in performance is to be expected (super shoes or no super shoes).
Also seeing more who do the 10,000 meter or 5,000/10,000 meter as fast training for the Marathon who just happen to be good enough at the shorter event to win every now and then in recent years as well as strictly Marathon specialists, people in the USA and Sammy Wanjiru helped reset the Marathon specialist trend that was common in the 1970's with some like Bill Rodgers and a few others while some would go the 10,000 meter and Marathon route like Frank Shorter.
Yet Kipchoge and Bekele are still 2nd and 3rd fastest ever, while starting at 30+ yo
Kiplimo and kejelcha who are the best half marathon runners are both elite track athletes
And than you have runners like kiptum / kandie who are no names on the track
I think that it doesnt really matter, what is more relevant is the event's popularity and the technological improvements ( training / nutrition/ shoes / doping... etc)
this is mentioned in the paper
For this generation of runners, both men and women are near the peak. Sub 2:02 for men and sub 2:15 for women is still rare. In ten or twenty years those times will be very common.
@@MarkFrankel-b3v Yes what you see for now 2024 is under 2;10 for men and under 2;20 for women is very common among elite runners when in 2000's under 2;15 for men and under 2;25 for women was to be considered in elite times.
Still miss Kiptum
Me too
Same 🇰🇪
I wonder if we'll never see another runner like him in my lifetime
U can die and meet kiptum there
We all do
you're forgetting another aspect: consuming over 90 grams of carbs per hour in a running race was unthinkable until a few years ago. Today when runners slam 140+ grams per hour they're much further away from emptying their glycogen stores towards the end of the race, can keep their oxidative (fat) metabolism lower (thus use less oxygen at the same pace), their lactate building rates a bit higher and run the whole race at a lactate concentration that's a little bit higher and take advantage of a little bit more anaerobic contribution without bonking. Better shoes, denser competition, more sugar, more spacialists, it all adds up.
The high carb intake isn't limited to just running. All endurance sports seem to be getting on this train. Its not as simple as just eating more, its eating the correct stuff, and training to be able to do it without distress.
There is also some noise about baking soda as well.
@ Oh yeah, I absolutely agree and didn’t mean it as if it were limited to running.
Amd dont forget baking soda as well 🎉🎉
This is a great point. The fuel and fueling strategy has gotten much better.
100g/90g per hour has been a thing since the 80's. AFAIK in fat adapted athletes there is no difference in oxygen requirements whether metabolizing fats or glucose, there might even be a benefit to fats
Sub 2 hour official marathon is coming soon I can feel it
Calling by 2030 we’ll see a 1:59
Maybe if Calvin was still alive
Who ?
Kiptum was the only one that could do it atm
@@PulseHex793 everyone know Kelvin Kiptum was better than Calvin
Kiptum looked like he'd have been the one to break 2 hours but it seems inevitable that it will happen at some point. Personally, I'll be happy if I manage sub-2:45
Super Shoes might give a 1min 30s edge to the fastest racers, but it doesn't account for the drops of massive times for both men and women racers. This is where probably the biggest technological factors comes into account: FOAM and CUSHIONING.
The new foams permit racers to train longer and more aggressively. How? It lets them RECOVER far faster than they used to and saves their legs when they train. This means that runners can do much higher mileage more often, resulting in better endurance and speed.
With less fatigue also comes more time for Strength training. Couple that with nutrition (on and off course) and all those factors create an environment for speed and progression.
One word drugs
@@ryandandurand2625 one word you're a buffffoooooon
its not just the improvement in racing. I have used these shoes & the training is improved as well. Less wear and tear during training
isnt wear and tear good to get your legs stronger?
@@goated_messi_ronaldo I think there's a greater benefit from being able to recover from one quality workout and do another sooner.
@@nairnathoner right
@@goated_messi_ronaldoyour legs still get stronger just not as much. Too much wear and tear and you get injured. Which means no improvement.
@goated_messi_ronaldo training in super shoes give you well higher weekly mileage without wear and tear.
Injuries will never serve any runner
Love the videos. From sprints to marathon you have amazing passion and analysts.
The main reason for increasing speeds in the marathon (aside from the 1-2% from super shoes) is the increase in carbohydrate fuelling which increases fuel to run fast plus it reduces the increase in oxygen drift that happens with >45min efforts. Plus the elites ARE loading on nitrate which further reduces oxygen drift over the marathon.
Keep the videos coming.
the 4min mile was considered impossible until Roger Banister did it, then the flood gates opened and everyone was doing it, i dont know the time difference between the rest catching up with Roger, i suppose it doesnt matte, but i believe Eliud Kipchoge's sub 2hr marathon has had the same psychological effect
My grandpa once told me that the "everyone thought it was impossible" part is a modern myth. Multiple runners had gone sub-4:02 ten years before Bannister, and by his time it was believed that at least one run was sub 4:00 but not timed correctly. In addition, a number of other runners were also pushing for the 4 minute mark when Bannister achieved it. Everyone knew it was going to happen sooner or later, and probably sooner.
Newspapers from around that time bear this out, and articles from Oxford even worry about the improvement in Landy's times, wondering if he'll beat their guy to the mark.
John Landy beat Bannister's time only 6 weeks later!
Uganda is cooking something unprecedented in long distance running, the next 10 years we shall dominate long distance running. In general there has been improvement in training and understanding of the race and that’s why the performances are insane
You mean cooking in the lab?💉
@@FinTechTravpeople like you cant stand others doing better, go be miserable elsewhere
@@FinTechTrav cooking on track
Indeed! Kenyans and Ethiopian s will be sleeping as you dorminate.
These marked results are typically found with PED use.
Just own it.
Kipchoge is the GOAT. I don’t think anyone will go under 2 hours like he did. I know technically it didnt count in the record books because of the pacer car, but the point is that the body was capable of it and he did it.
He didn't have to get his own drinks and the runners breaking the wind in front of him only ran 5Km. If you take those out he wouldn't have got under 2 hours even with a pacer car.
I mean, it's extremely unlikely that no one will go under 2. Kiptum was very close. So why shouldn't we expect that someone else comes along soon and gets close again. I think it will be broken within 3 - 5 years.
There’s so much emphasis on the shoes (for a good reason) but I would be interested in a deep dive on the development of both sports nutrition and training with more data through better technology, I could see how they also have had impact on this improved performance 🙂
You forgot undetectable PEDs
Like UFOs?
Better phone WADA
Anytime you see the big jumps across the board like that, it's usually breakthroughs in doping.
@@michaelm9871
I agree and Africans have the latest drugs and shoes.
@@bonelessbeef Pro athletes would never dope
I have also read that given the efficiency of the shoes comes as a function of minimizing energy losses with each footfall, i.e. increasing efficiency, that runners who have higher cadences inherently benefit more, and this also means that the longer you are running for, the more time it would save, its not like all men, running between 2h02, and 5h02 only get the same increase of a minute or so, and all women across all finishing times get the same benefit. The idea would be that given you already have an efficient stride and have maximized gains in all other areas, the shoes add a slight benefit for each stride, so that percentage increase in efficiency means that you have greater gains the longer you run for....3% of 2 hours is around 3.5 minutes, but 3% of 3 hours is around 5.5 minutes. women typically take more steps than men to cover the same distance and they take a bit longer to run that distance so they would benefit more from a super shoe. Given a sub 4 minute mile was thought impossible until it happened and now many break sub 4, I think for the men many will break 2h once it happens in a race and that will happen soon. for the women, I think many will also now break 2h10.
Agreed
Lol at Ruth’s male pacer casually following her into the 2:09
wait until someone installs this shoe technology components into the very marathon road/course itself 💥
We're definitely going to see a sub-2 marathon at some point, but it's hard to predict exactly when, especially after Kiptum's unexpected passing. I don’t think there’s an obvious 'next best' runner who can easily break the two-hour barrier. Naturally, Kipchoge comes to mind as a strong candidate, but given his recent performances, I’m starting to doubt whether he still has it in him to make it happen.
Fueling leading to wider glycogen availability across 120-125 minutes is key, 30k wall is long forgotten at these levels.
All about cyclic dextrin carbohydrate drinks now. They get absorbed much faster. I can't believe the video doesn't make any reference to the fueling revolution
Great video!…. Love all the data & stats
1%Shoes, 5%Drugs
SUPER SHOES ERA!!!!😊
new kendrick album
its mediocre and boring except for one song
@@RiqMoran We must have heard different albums. 🤣🤣"Stay on stream."
Kipchoge is the goat because of his entire career, but we all know Kiptum was well on his way of breaking the 2-hour mark.
A big factor that doesn't get talked about is how much improvements we have made in collecting and processing data in and outside the lab in a manner that's consistent and highly reliable. There is a picture of Jack Daniel sitting on the hood of a car following an athlete running laps on a track to measure VO2 max. Today's athletes can do that in the lab, know their exact numbers and optimize their training leading to much better results.
Kiptum's death is one of the biggest losses to the sport of running ever. Truly a legend.
In addition to enabling runners to run faster in competition, "super shoes" enable them to run faster in training with less impact and strain on their bodies, and faster recovery. So there is a direct effect on times from competing in the shoes, but there is a greater effect on times from training in super shoes. (or super trainers with many of the same features)
If we look at Kipchoge's paced time-trials with and without vapor-fly shoes, the difference is about 40 sec., 1:59:40 and 2:00:20 in round numbers respectively. This works out to about 1.o sec. per kilometre, or 10 sec. for 10 k and 5 sec. for 5 k. This is remarkably close to the WR improvements for those distances since the shoes were introduced.
I think we see sub-2:00 by end of 2026.
its the super shoes, kool aid and pacers(drafting) giving them the edge.
The shoes help a lot, but I would contribute the majority of these phenomenal improvements to fueling. Fueling during the marathon is EVERYTHING to a great performance.
I am glad you cited to training and expectation. It would be sad if it involves a lot of doping
Super shoes may add to a runners running economy but just add that percentage on to their times and the majority of marathoners still couldn’t compete. These guys and girls are crazy fast!
Crazy how fast humans keep getting faster
It seems like advances in running are less about advancements in the human body itself and more about optimizing the conditions the body operates in. Weirdly enough, the same can be said about a lot of medical procedures.
Revolutionary shoes = Revolutionary running times.
So many people are saying "yeah drugs". Why can't people just believe there are people that are just that good, put in the training, go mad with fueling strategies, and running technology?
Because everyone at the top level dopes, that's how you get to the top level. Any discussion about record times without discussion about doping strategies is dishonest.
It’s hard for me to comprehend running that fast for 2 hours ❤
It’s all about what we humans believe can be done. I remember being so excited about a pair of Jordan’s when I was 17 that I actually pushed down a two handed dunk after months of trying I was convinced it was the shoes but once I knew I could do it I could have bought a pair of shoes from Walmart by the time I was 19 and it made no difference. 🤣 but I was never a high flyer. I’m just saying the shoes help but once you believe you can hit your goals you start hitting your goals more often.
Cannot discount how shoe technology has enabled more and better training
Training methods, super shoes, nutrition and data analytics are much more accessible than ever. That's why we see so much great performances
The women have the advantage - they can hire male pacers who can run 2:05-2:10 for the WHOLE marathon. Men's pacers struggle after 20K. I'm not saying the men can't break 2 hours, but they will have to figure out a pacing strategy without pacers.
More prize money attracts more runners with more motivation. Drugs? And the modern shoes create less fatigue in training and racing
Training and Racing is the part the average runner forgets about elite runners becuse Max cushion Super Trainers are not the it thing when talking about elites in running unlike the Super Racers. Lighter Super Trainers are however the it thing for recreational runners to save money only needing one model who often buy models that would conform to World Athletics rules on foam height.
I cannot fathom running a 2:08 and not even being in the money, let alone a podium. This shit is why people dope. It’s horrible but true.
It's horrible that the most elite bar of success is moving??? so people dope. what a horrible outlook.
@ , the difference between a 2:15 and a 2:08 marathoner really isn’t talent or hard work, it’s genetics. Same thing goes for the bar from 2:08 to 2:04. Finding people with the genetic profile that gives them the potential naturally to do this incredibly rare. The only bridge for people with a natural genetic ceiling of 2:15 is doping. The issue is that if there are 30-50 people capable of naturally going 2:08 - you’re going to see a huge uptick in doping. Genetics are everything at the peak human performance, and it’s particularly stronger the longer the event is. I think the times are awesome, and I still don’t think it justifies doping, but pretending it isn’t happening is absolutely ignorant. I know try hard coaches and weekend warriors like to believe that genetic ceilings do not exist, and that it’s an equal playing field from a genetic standpoint - this is absolutely false. There is a reason I am 5’9 and not 6’8”. I no matter how much I want to I can never get there.
Just imagine how much faster the men’s side average would’ve been if Kiptum was still with us 😢
May he rest in peace
Everybody can use the shoes and then every circumstance remains the same in competition terms...
DRUGS?
which drugs? where can I get them
Thank you, no, I'm straight. -Ferris Bueller's Day Off
I'm old school... I still train and will race in racing flats. Super shoes are ridiculous and way too expensive.
What a run
Awesome analysis. Seeing the same trend in the world of Ironman too
A sub-2 marathon is coming, but with Kiptum gone I'm not sure any of the current crop will do it. But there will be a new talent coming shortly who will do it, in much the same way Kiptum burst on the scene - a runner who is not afraid to go for it. But you do have to wonder, if Kipchoge had followed the path of modern marathon runners and not gone through years of shorter distance track running before switching, then how much lower could he have taken the record?
1:15 "there is actually much more going on to the marathon scene than meets the eye."... yah, drugs...
Theres nothing new about drugs
@TheIrishny thanks for telling me you have zero clue about the world of doping. Everything is getting more advanced over time, yet you think the drugs are the same? 😂🤦♂️👍
@@tankeater Oh, please fill us in with the exact science of current drugs being taken vs drugs being taken 10 years ago.
@@TheIrishny not how things work in the real world... You think I'm wrong, with NOTHING to back up what you said. All you can ask is for me to tell you what you should already know by putting yourself into this conversation. 🤦♂️😉
@tankeater Youre the one that made the claim.
The onus of proof is on you.
Excellent statistics
I can think of another reason times are getting so fast
I think an Olympic year is a drag on times.
The average elite top 10 times on both men & women really went down in 2018 when you see the lightweight almost racing weight Super Trainers come into play as well and not just a Super Race Shoe made for racing only/mainly. The Reason besides finding the exact numbers in seeing these times go down even more and not just a genetic lottery from a few who can wear more durable Super Race Shoe models for some training as well as racing is becuse of the shoes for training as well as the racing pairs that are now both saving the legs from wear.
Maybe someone has said it already but, I predict that the people who will break the barriers you presented both for me and for women are alive now and probably even ran today.
Linear regression show statistical correlation but not causality.
Only a longitudinal randomized experiment can, not necessary on elite athletes but recommend.
Great you mentioned Paula 👍💪I think she kicked it all off
@totalrunningproductions has there been any benefit from the use of pacers or has that been fairly static? I.E. has there been an increase in number of marathons with pacers and has the availability of larger numbers of fast pacers increased?
Yomif Kejelcha will be the man who breaks 2 hours.
He's faster than Kipchoge from mile to half mara. Has the speed to run similar to Kiptum.
Kipchoge is the Goat though.
I'd like to see this data overlayed over the 10k and 5k. Curious if its just the Marathon seeing the average improvements or is the shorter road races are as well. Feels like lots of WR's over the last few years.
extend this to show the splits for the 5k, 10k, half and full marathons. Much better to see whats happening in context to the other distances. Or the context that people crushing the marathon are 5k runners? Or, the much wider context of amateurs - with the BQ times
Just to put it in to context sub 2:10 times have been run about 4500 times in the Marathon.
Cool!
Now that Sifan Hassan is athlete of the year, is it time for TPR to pay tribute to her Olympic achievement? She's also unique in this conversation of specialists as one who extends rather than specializes.
really don't think we'll see either marathon record move again for a long time
Everything he just showed us says it most likely will. The only way it won't is if someone comes out and busts everyone for drug use, or bans super shoes. Like the swimming suits.
@@leonchristensen1765 yeah and he just did another video suggesting Usain Bolt's records are going to fall imminently according to ... numbers. 🙄 Data is only so useful - someone has to actually put the performance together on the day when it matters. I watched the same video you did and gave my opinion. That's all I can say.
The womens record beats ALL the men up to the year of 1967. When it's the 10000m, that's as far back as 1939. For the mile it's 1933. And for the 100m it's 1921
It’s all about bay leaf. Bay leaf the super shoes can make you faster. Bay leaf that if someone else can do it, you can do it.
Do you every cover any XC running?
I'd much rather run in super shoes all the time like adios pro 3.
Durable and not too aggressive for more relaxed mileage.
Up to not long ago marathon was something mostly aged track runners did.
Heck, up to about 2003 there wasn't even a official, ratified world record time.
I'm curious if there has been any investigation into the new female world record. I don't know shit, however, I was watching a podcast just after it was broken and they were talking about some pretty "unusual" occurrences with that record.. Her splits, her improvements etc. Innocent* until proven otherwise but would be interested to hear if she's been looked into as under 2:10 for a female is borderline superhuman 💪
Gulity until proven otherwise is crazy.
Guilty until proven innocent is a disastrous ideology my guy. Her record is sitting under doubt as to whether its a true human accomplishment for her, but whether its possible at all is an entirely different set of circumstances.
@@carterhyde908 actually meant to write "innocent* until proven guilty/othwise" 🤣
@@pants1359 100%!... I meant to write "innocent until proven guilty" 🤣
Nutrition and breakthroughs/adaptations in training methodology are also factors.
Are you sure it wasnt a new, undetected substance?
The sudden advancement in running psychology leading to record averages across the board seems awfully suspicious.
You mentioned the number of performances, but it wasn't clear whether each performance represented a unique athlete or multiple performances by the same athlete.
Given the switch from extremely minimal midsole shoes to the maximalist carbon-plated super-foam shoes, I can imagine athletes take less physical damage from running a marathon now than they used to before the super shoes. This would result in for example, someone like Kipchoge running 3 marathons a year instead of 2, leading to more "performances" that are fast simply because the fast athletes can do more runs with less risk of getting injured.
Not saying the shoes don't also boost running economy and lead to improved times because obviously they do, but I think not factoring in the shoes effect on risk of injury would be excluding a critical benefit of these shoes.
Hi, I co authored one of the papers. Each runner was allowed one entry per year to avoid data bloat; if a runner ran two times under 2:08, we only tracked the faster of the two times.
This means were seeing 23.5 new, unique runners run sub-2:08 each year, not just the total number of instances occurring.
@@andybjorkelo8496 fair enough, and thanks for the explanation.
How does the development of performance enhancing drugs look like in the last decade? And how does marathon runners' strength regiments look like in the last decade compared to 20 years ago?
The slight bob up in top 10 in 2024 is Kiptum's absence. :( I believe we'll see a valid sub 2:00 next season.
Plus 10 minutes for the shoes…
4:41 is my average pace for my PR marathon but its Per KM LOL
Chicago and Nike have 2 WR
I’m hoping to break the 4 hour soon. 😂
Super shoes and kipchoge made more people start running. More people running leads to more people running faster times.
Have you seen an analysis of age group records? Does this coincide with the elite?
It's ALL the shoes and not newer drugs like Roxadustat. Nope, not at all.
Can someone please clarify why Kipchoge 1:59 marathon in Vienna Austria in 2019 does not count as a legal marathon time? He ran the legal marathon distance, has not failed a drug test and it is very normal in the running world for athletes to have pacers with them during various events. Why is the current record Kelvin Kiptum's 2:00:35 from Chicago in October 2023? Is it the fact that Kipochoge ran alone?
If I remember correctly, it's (at least in part?) because the pacers cycled in and out and so didn't also run the full distance
didn't kipchoge do a sub-2 hour in the vienna marathon in 2019?
He did the sub-2 at an almost level auto racetrack in Italy with a rotating group of pacers helping him out, but no other competitors, so it was disallowed. Kind of makes you wonder if the recently set women's record of 2:09 should be allowed since Ruth Chepngetich had male pacers running with her until about the last 400m.
@crosslink1493 Conditions were legal for her world records. It is just not the womens only because most races are started together.
Olympic marathon race was women only.
Anyone want to guess when super shoes started?😅
1968, mexico olympics.
Nate Dias: “They are all on steroids”
The number of under 2:08 (or whatever) performances there were isn't really the issue as one runner could alter the number a lot by participating in more races in a single year.
More important is the number of runners who have exceeded the goal.
Hi, I co-authored one of the relevant papers. Each runner was only allowed one entry in our data set; if the same runner ran sub-2:08 in the same year, we only counted the faster of the two times for the runner.
This was to avoid this scenario of bloating the dataset and get a true picture on the number of runners going sub 2:08, not just the total number of instances in a year of the time occurring.
@@andybjorkelo8496: Excellent! Thanks for the clarification.
They are using better EPO than before.
Just good gaming chairs.......
No mention of the elephant in the room?
Still looking for 'the truth we now know' in your video
Maybe you are being disingenuous or maybe just being dumb, but you talk about scientific knowledge and super shoes, yet you ignore the only factor that matters: prize money. The World Marathon Majors (WMM) (known for sponsorship reasons as the Abbott World Marathon Majors) is a championship-style competition for marathon runners that started in 2006. Just map the prize money offered since 2006 onto your graph of the increase of numbers of sub-2:08 runners and forget all these red herrings of shoes and research. The truth is in the incentives.
What exactly do you mean by “ they broke the marathon again”
i swear, this guy... gets an idea... and just runs with it, true or false...
no pun intended
There's a lot that we can't see.
They've got better medicine now.
And I posit very few would have broken 2:04 had they run in in non carbon plated shoes….perhaps one or two runners…
That and the fact thar there is more people dedicated to sports. Sports have become mainstream and many cities see that as a way to prevent illness and provide quality of life for its citizens. If every people in the world went to university, and recieved plenty of resource to research and etc, wouldnt we have more geniuses? The current tecnology boom has everything to do with what is happening in sports
Doping is a key factor…………