Abolishing the Fed, and all central banks is the right thing to do. We can all start by refusing their dystopian digital prison currency, use cash and barter where possible. Shop locally with small businesses, avoid using banks and big box stores.
I watch a number of financial/economic analysts and consider these interviews between Mr. Ferro and Mr. El-Erian to be the very best, higher-level discussions. Both the questions and the answers are exceptionally-well targeted providing viewers with excellent insights. Thanks to all involved. 👍👍
@@Winteriscoming... If only people would actually make the effort to understand an experts history, there wouldn't be so many stupid comments at TH-cam.
@@Winteriscoming... I suggest that you take some reading comprehension classes, or something. Your comment is in direct disagreement to Mr. El-Erian's commentary over the last year or so. Example: long before most experts had concern about FED policy, Mr. El-Erian was cautioning that if the FED didn't begin reducing taper, inflation would increase dramatically. Example #2: About 15 months ago Mr. El-Erian indicated that he did not agree that inflation was going to be transitory, as the FED was stating. Again, he was correct long before others. Now, you need to ask yourself some questions, beginning with, "How can it be that I was so wrong about Mr. El-Erian?" If you take the time to honestly answer that question, I guarantee a more successful trading experience.
@@Winteriscoming... Just carefully compare Mr. El-Erian's projections beginning a year ago to those of the FED and most other experts. His track record speaks for itself, but only to those with ears and an occupied cranium between them
@@Winteriscoming... You are an empty profile created some months ago 😂. Dont bother answering this bot that as his creator is the consequence of a bad copulation between 2 donkeys 😂
"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless" -Thomas Jefferson
@@soylentgreenb so sad, I've been looking for a house for a long time I can't even afford one, interest rates are so low investors are out buying up every house they can get their hands on with cash.
Bernanke, Yellen, and now Powell have all not been willing to do what’s needed to keep the market in check. They’re always reactionary, not proactive to prevent this crap from happening in the first place.
The Fed is a reactionary body and always has been, using weeks and months of past data to make the path forward. What's needed is for Congress to actually pass some meaningful Fiscal Policies rather than forcing the Fed to use Monetary Policy to run the economy of the country.
@@LibertarianRF The USA as a country IS the Federal Reserves investment and they have been forced to use Monetary Policy to keep the country afloat because Congress has refused to pass any Fiscal Policies for over 40 years.
The FED : "lets pretend to care about and pretend to fight inflation" .They actually want inflation to run rampant so that they can pay off debt with inflated currency .
There is no SUCH thing as a soft landing thanks to the incompetence of the FED in not increase rates last year, while at the same time the US Govt was over stimulating the economy with spending.
The Fed doesn't have a good track record of engineering a soft landing. The reality of the situation is a soft landing won't do a thing to cool inflation. It will take a hard landing to CRUSH this inflation monster.
He's not that special, this isn't rocket science. Central banks and governments cause inflation and destroy societies/economies with fiat currency. Same as Zimbabwe, same as Venezuela...
He is solid in both the economics of what mistakes were made and how to correct will only be our immaculate solution...He has given us insight beyond all the others interviewed!
Being of age and how to manage the sequence of returns in those early periods is what seems quite scary in the current market. The market is never a loser in the twenty year cycle, but the 2000s decade scenario scares me and could really disrupt my retirement. When you're no longer accumulating but withdrawing, it's hard to be anything but cautious.
@@jachikeonwuka3824 Apparently that's true, I agree. It is mostly disastrous for newbies or anyone who doesn't adhere to a well thought-out strategy and over all, a professional broker.
Wow, I'm just shocked someone mentioned and recommended expert Mrs Diana Lynne Bobka. I thought people don't really know her. I invested £ 2,000 with Mrs Diana Lynne Bobka after i met her at a conference in London, she made me profit of £ 11,790 in just 7- 14 days of trading with her and i invested more.
Hello!!, I'm pleased to meet investors of Diana Lynne Bobka. I recently ventured into investing with her undertaking trades on my behalf. She has been of great help and her tutelage has brought me to a higher understanding of profit generation.
"Immaculate solution," "neutral is a variable, not a parameter," -- damn, El-Erian makes me miss those grad econ/fina classes taught by great researchers who were also great professors. Another stellar interview from Bloomberg.
I’m a bit surprised Mohamed would opt for true inflation running at 17-18% vs recession. Let the true inflation get in trenches at these levels I’m buying stock in tent makers. Look around the world at what inflation does to a country.
I know that’s right. I’m a single guy with grown kids with all my major purchases behind me. I really feel for family’s and all the expenses they have.
@@loudnewsnet7796 Exactly, although the established orthodoxy seems to be to let inflation rip as this inflates away the debt, as if that somehow makes the debt smaller. No, me neither.
he is not much of a talker but a doer. I never believed when he told me i could make profit from trading until i withdrew 3btc to my block chain just January here. Jeff Erno is good when it comes to trading and i will recommend him for other investors.
The 3.5% unemployment is not accurate. It hasn't been updated in ages. It does not factor in the recent Great Resignation in which nearly 50 million people have quit their jobs in the past two years. That pushes the number well above 20%. So the Fed really needs to be _dovish_ rather than tanking the economy.
Very simple a free market capital system was not meant to be manipulated. Just the concept of a "Central Bank" and a free market system will never work. The great depression was a manifestation of natural boom and bust cycles. We keep wanting to avoid the economic bust that actually humbles a society and reminds us to be grateful, self reliant and have a simple work ethic. I'm afraid the we have no clue now what's coming.
The stock market is still overvalued, that's the piece of the puzzle he seems to be ignoring. Low corporate taxes and high stock values are inflationary. Without price stability the economy is broken. A 20% correction is not the market breaking.
Mr Ferro and Mr El-Erian make the world of finance visible to ordinary people in a delightful manner. What I take away from this vocast is Mr El-Erian's 'loser/loser' comment about the Fed's latest actions. Chairman Powell seemed so uplifted and positive in his latest announcement and then we hear from Mohamed El-Erian that recession is a probable outcome. It's hard for us outside the world of finance and markets to understand how bad things are going to get because of decisions at the top which will not make things better but turn the world upside down. The French have an expression "jamais deux sans trois". Never two things without a third. We've had a pandemic and it's still poking its ugly head above the clouds and now a war in Ukraine and I hesitate to predict that there just may be a doozy of a recession waiting in the wings. Boys and girls, we will get through these world-shattering events, but I fear the world will be a much different place when we emerge to the other side of these Earth-shattering developments. It's an opinion.
He’s no magician. And neither is anyone else. You are still stuck with a number of unpalatable choices. You’re going to have to balance any portfolio with Stocks, bonds, commodities and cash. His advice is to lighten up on equities. If you have the stomach for some volatility, then go to commodities. If not, then cash and short term bonds in a mix. He was describing what asset managers have to do, not what an individual might do. Individuals do not have annual performance reviews, they have (presumably) longer time horizons.
Maybe it’s time to admit that Powell, the Fed and the talking heads don’t really know what’s going on in the economy or has any clue about inflation? They have let the system get too financialized, too complicated and far far too indebted.
There are two main reasons for the onset of global inflation: one is affected by the epidemic, the U.S. economy is in recession, the Federal Reserve printed a lot of money, putting $3 trillion into the market last year and another $1.9 trillion into the market this year, which led to the rapid depreciation of the U.S. dollar, and the depreciation of the U.S. dollar led to a huge increase in the price of global commodities denominated in dollars, which also directly pushed up the price of global raw materials. Another is that, due to the global economic downturn, central banks have followed the example of the U.S. and implemented loose monetary policies in order to bring their economies back up, which has also directly led to the advent of inflation in various countries. Faced with the advent of inflation in the United States, many experts suggest that people can invest in real estate and gold. However, we believe that this advice is not feasible. First of all, the property, three or four tier cities due to population outflow than inflow, investment in real estate is too risky, while the price of houses in first-tier cities is often seven or eight million or even tens of millions, the average person simply can not afford to buy, the money to pay the down payment is not enough. In addition, real estate is now facing regulation and control, and has begun to see results, the price of housing around the beginning of differentiation, coupled with the majority of people have entered an aging society, the overall supply of property is greater than demand, the probability of the future rise in housing prices is not great, the good days of investing in property with eyes closed to make money has passed. Then look at the investment in gold, by the impact of the depreciation of the dollar, international gold prices rose sharply, once to the end of last year's $ 2060 / ounce, and then began to fall from the high, at present, the international gold price is $ 1797 / ounce, has been at a historical high. And if investors want to invest in gold, they should wait for the international gold price to fall to below $1200/oz. What's more, U.S. gold is a niche market, you buy gold easily, to sell gold is very difficult. The U.S. gold stores basically do not recycle gold, and the U.S. banks only recycle their own gold bullion, but also add fees and identification fees, so that investment in gold bullion is basically unprofitable. So in the face of inflation, how do we deal with it? First, store appropriate food at home. For example, save some grain and flour Of course, now there is no need to hoard a lot of grain and flour, enough for a month or two to eat can be, because too much grain hoarding will be damp and moldy, appropriate hoarding some can be. Secondly, people nowadays can do some part-time jobs so that they can increase their income and counteract inflation. Of course, if you have a certain understanding of finance, history and other fields, you can try to invest into finance to earn extra income. In short, inflation is coming, salary income does not rise, only through part-time jobs to deal with inflation. Third, keep some cash on hand, but also learn how to manage money to counteract inflation. Because there is some cash in hand, you can buy the necessities of life, and if people are sick, they can get timely medical treatment. And inflation period, often accompanied by economic downturn, the asset bubble will burst, if there is enough cash in hand, you can wait until the asset bubble fell to the lowest in history, and then low absorption, so it is likely to speculate to the bottom of history. Of course, while the inflation can also learn about financial management, so that you can also be through the financial gains to counteract inflation.
In 100 years the Federal Reserve will be looked at with the same amount of disdain that people look at the robber barons from the railroads in the 1800s today.
Inflation is eviserating our economy. Do you truly believe increased inflation should be allowed to fester. Rents up 500 a month. People will not have a dime to purchase or sustain ant real growth in our economy.
Equities rising 😅10 yr Yield at record high .. been scaring us for years of interest rate rises and hawkish Fed… we’ve been rallying for years on dovish statements and policy guidance.. now ultra hawkish in forward guidance and actual interest rate policy … but equities rally!! Clearly a stop hunt, taking out all the shorts before a big fall!! Bond Mkts moving in accordance with Fed’s hawkishness
Maybe using debt to expand the money supply by lowering interest rates for 40 years and encouraging the public to borrow ever higher multiples of their income was a mistake. Perhaps if the money supply needs to constantly expand in order to keep prices rising at 2% and output growing then maybe the government should spend more money domestically. Debt to income has been trending up whilst the cash rate has trended down to 0% for 4 decades now. Debt to income multiples have been growing all over the world for decades. The government combined with the fed have the ability to print money, why do they need to rely on commercial bank's lending practices? What happens when we can't lower the interest rate any further, the Fed just prints money and dumps it into the bond market to increase borrowing? This is idiotic, Milton Friedman was wrong.
That would have been a sound discussion if the goal was responsible fiscal and monetary policies. Unfortunately I think they've in the Roman "let them eat cake" mode for those 40 years now. Politicians more worried about expanding their personal power than anything else.
Stagflation is the wrong diagnosis. This is not the 70s, labor share of income is at a low, not at a high as it was in the 70s. Private debt is at a high, not a low as it was in the 70s. Wage driven inflation is definitely not the enemy, it would be a welcome sign that debt is being paid back, the economy is becoming more resilient, and demand is picking up. Apart from energy inflation, the inflation we have makes it look like the Fed's money printing is going to propping up the markets at the expense of the real economy. Fundamentally, what's been happening is we've been dumping ever more debt on the public since the Volcker shock to compensate for flat income growth. After we rode interest rates all the way down to near 0%, the debt market becomes effectively saturated, so that's not going to work anymore, and the Fed resorted to money printing. Well, the problem is structural, then. Over the long run, it makes no sense for house prices, market prices to increase, while incomes and private debt load are flat. If the money printing were going to increasing wages, and paying back debt, we'd be completing the economic circle, and setting the stage for another era of economic growth. Instead, we're using money printing to prop up the markets at the expense of the real economy. I don't think this ends well at all. If we are to accept that the Fed, and central banks, are to manage the economy instead of elected governments, then I think we have to acknowledge that they don't really have the tools to dig out of this mess. Because they're not sending that money to the places where it would be really effective. I think if you want central banks to continue to manage the economy, they need to be granted a mandate to distribute money widely to the general public, in the form of UBI, or some kind of universal dividend, in circumstances where interest rates are near 0%. If you want elected governments to fix this issue, be wary that some of these governments will have some funny ideas about how to effectively get money to the working class. Historically, this is the time for war making.
Nothing more dangerous than wages chasing prices. Also the participation rate of labor says 34% unemployment. The u.s. is headed to an inflationary depression. Way far worst than 70's or even 1929 since it will be inflationary.
@@eljefe5858 The entire world has been mired in the Denial Depression since 2008-09. Trillions of dollars in wealth was evaporated on a worldwide scale and all Congress did was hand the keys to a new car to the drunks on Wall Street that drove the car into the ditch and totaled it.
Sheesh! we are at .25% fed funds and QE is going to end. To normalize rates a little won't throw us in to recession unless we're on our way regardless. He must be long bonds or something...
Everything's in a bubble, the 10 year Treasury at 2.5% will pop it for sure...but I do believe the air is seeping out already. Hold tight to your pancake coin.
Brilliant analysis as usual from El-Erian, my favourite economic commentator. I do agree. FED has lost it. They are demonstrating FOMC after FOMC, speech after speech that they are always behind, always reactive instead of proactive, never able to anticipate correctly. It is as if they were long on equities and that they are too afraid to handle the inflation issues because you know if stock markets go down that would bad... The idea that stock markets would always go higher is laughable. Sooner or later, stagflation or recession will hit and the FED will be like oohhh we're sorry, we did our best...
It seems like El-Erian was expecting a dip in the markets from the FOMC meeting and Powell talking about a 50 bps increase if necessary so as to buy the deep but instead he missed the rally.
What I've learned in my 11 years of investing is this "is Warren Buffett or Charlie Munger speaking? No? Then do listen to anyone else." Not El-Mahmood Amadinajad, not Peter "the gold peddler" Schiff, not Jim "Bow Tie Singapore" Rogers or Marc "Doom Gloom tiny pony tail depressed" Farber.
The FED is hurting the Real Estate market, banks are manipulating mortgage rates, you can call 2 different mortgage companies and get a 1.5 % difference in the same hour.
As long as economists think the Fed didn't anticipate inflation, they will continue to be frustrated and "puzzled" by Fed actions Prices= velocity of money times money supply divided by GDP. All things being equal, if you increase money supply by 40%, you will get a 40% increase in prices. Do you think Jerome Powell doesn't know this basic economic equation? Do you really think he was surprised by inflation? Inflation is a deliberate policy decision on the part of western governments to inflate away the unsustainable sovereign debt, and to transfer wealth from ordinary citizens to the government and its oligarch chronies.
El-Erian says this is the time to lighten up on stocks. Okay. And put your money where??? He said himself that this is the wrong time to go to cash, buy bonds or commodities. Makes no sense!
I-bonds are probably the best place to park cash for the next year or so. With it's current 7.1% interest rate, it'll at least keep your money alive while this high inflation persists. Only drawback is youre limited to $10k a year.
@Katsuya89 ok so I k ow you weren't listening to powell but he said inflation will begin to come down in the summer. Balance sheets healthy, economy strong, people going back to work, supply chains improving. You act as if everything was destroyed and there is no infrastructure. Things were just closed for a bit. Once people work and restock supplies and get overtime to produce more then we'll be back to normal. Ugh pessimism
@@rally_chronicles And you're sure that Powell is gonna be right? This is the same guy that kept saying inflation is only transitory all of last year while continuing to print loads of money for way longer than needed. I sure hope you're right about everything going back to normal soon, but I wouldn't count on it.
As usual, the long sighted El-Erian is providing ammo to a condescending FED. They will make use of his comment to create new narratives and try to have it their way. They are so lucky to have people that give them well thought through suggestions. Too bad they are throwing everyone under the bus due to their negligence and ignorance.
I don't want to see another recession, but it might be wise. Tough times. We avoided the market crash brought on by pandemic, now, personally I think keeping the dollar strong is a good move even if it brings recession. Raise interest rates a little under the highest we can and pro-long it for a great period. Stop the loose monetary policy, cut government spending, stop an inflationary monetary policy at that. Make better choices in the future. No more kick the can down the road policies. No more propping up the stocks. No more banking systems helping out investors in the housing markets. No more mortgaging our children's futures. At the very least no more spending and keep inflation where it is or lower it some until we get on solid ground then Volker as much as possible after the bottle necks clear up.
@Rob Littel its all about financial suppression these days it seems. I can almost hear somebody in the distance saying " we dont want to kill em..we just want to keep em weak..otherwise whose gonna be there to serve us?"...who all it is i dont know but I figure some one somewhere feels this way
My first investment with Cormac gave me profit of over $70,000 us dollars ın 5 weeks and ever since then he has never failed to deliver and I can even say he's the most sincere broker I have known.
Fed lost already when they continue to over print USD last year. There is no such thing as free money and low inflation. Now, they can pick which side to lose, recession or inflation. Or both.
Powell doesn’t control inflation , Biden blames him for higher prices ahead of midterm elections and asks for fed pres resignation. Powell causes a recession, Biden blames Powell ahead of mid-term elections and replaces Powell with money printing dove. Feel bad for Powell in a way. End result is that money printing starts again by summer.
![[Full] 4 ต่อ 4 Celebrity EP.910 | 22 ก.ย. 67 | one31](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/4TR3MVpOiw8/mqdefault.jpg)
We're screwed, the fed sucks, government sucks and we're stuck with high prices of everything
We are not completely screwed. Sure if the fed goes we will become poorer temporarily but we will finally have financial freedom from these criminals
Abolishing the Fed, and all central banks is the right thing to do. We can all start by refusing their dystopian digital prison currency, use cash and barter where possible. Shop locally with small businesses, avoid using banks and big box stores.
Bitcoin
Big breaking news: Russia demands payment of gass in ruble from unfriendly countries
I bet there will be big changes coming from the Fed and Treasury soon…just a matter of what..
I watch a number of financial/economic analysts and consider these interviews between Mr. Ferro and Mr. El-Erian to be the very best, higher-level discussions. Both the questions and the answers are exceptionally-well targeted providing viewers with excellent insights. Thanks to all involved. 👍👍
@@Winteriscoming... If only people would actually make the effort to understand an experts history, there wouldn't be so many stupid comments at TH-cam.
@@Winteriscoming... I suggest that you take some reading comprehension classes, or something. Your comment is in direct disagreement to Mr. El-Erian's commentary over the last year or so. Example: long before most experts had concern about FED policy, Mr. El-Erian was cautioning that if the FED didn't begin reducing taper, inflation would increase dramatically. Example #2: About 15 months ago Mr. El-Erian indicated that he did not agree that inflation was going to be transitory, as the FED was stating. Again, he was correct long before others. Now, you need to ask yourself some questions, beginning with, "How can it be that I was so wrong about Mr. El-Erian?" If you take the time to honestly answer that question, I guarantee a more successful trading experience.
@@Winteriscoming... Just carefully compare Mr. El-Erian's projections beginning a year ago to those of the FED and most other experts. His track record speaks for itself, but only to those with ears and an occupied cranium between them
@@Winteriscoming... You are an empty profile created some months ago 😂. Dont bother answering this bot that as his creator is the consequence of a bad copulation between 2 donkeys 😂
@Stevie Wonders wow a whole year. Buffet and Munger are the only ones to listen too. They've been right forever.
Always worth a listen. So organized and clear.
It's a roller coaster ride, which is a reflexion of the current administration: no crediblity, no plan, and no idea what they are doing.
"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless" -Thomas Jefferson
AKA ”you will own nothing, and you will be happy”.
Crazy how Thomas Jefferson predicting the damn future 200+ years ago
@@LaSombraa exactly 💯👍🏻
@@soylentgreenb so sad, I've been looking for a house for a long time I can't even afford one, interest rates are so low investors are out buying up every house they can get their hands on with cash.
@@JohnDaniels Black Pebbles are buying all the houses
One of the few guys that publicly knows what’s going on
Bernanke, Yellen, and now Powell have all not been willing to do what’s needed to keep the market in check. They’re always reactionary, not proactive to prevent this crap from happening in the first place.
The Fed is a reactionary body and always has been, using weeks and months of past data to make the path forward. What's needed is for Congress to actually pass some meaningful Fiscal Policies rather than forcing the Fed to use Monetary Policy to run the economy of the country.
They want it to happen.. the Federal Reserve is a cartel of private Banks. They'll coordinate to make money on the way down and on the way up.
@@LibertarianRF They're planning a populist rebellion to push the green commie agenda.
Central bank mandate is supposed to be price stability in currency not propping up stock markets. Foolish
@@LibertarianRF The USA as a country IS the Federal Reserves investment and they have been forced to use Monetary Policy to keep the country afloat because Congress has refused to pass any Fiscal Policies for over 40 years.
WE'RE FUCKED.
El-Erin’s is one of the best macroeconomic minds off our time
One the best and well rounded financial experts out there. Love listening to Mohammed
The last thing the Fed will do is acknowledge a mistake.
The FED : "lets pretend to care about and pretend to fight inflation" .They actually want inflation to run rampant so that they can pay off debt with inflated currency .
When debt is money, No one wants to pay off debt as it shrinks the economy.
@@antpoo or pay interest with inflated $'s
Yeah mean pay off debt with more inflated debt.
it should work except how many people will be in proverty and if democracy will no longer exist.
@@Cordycep1 they will keep the people of the abyss manageable with cash payments and food vouchers
There is no SUCH thing as a soft landing thanks to the incompetence of the FED in not increase rates last year, while at the same time the US Govt was over stimulating the economy with spending.
Over stimulating with printing .
The Fed doesn't have a good track record of engineering a soft landing. The reality of the situation is a soft landing won't do a thing to cool inflation. It will take a hard landing to CRUSH this inflation monster.
JONATHAN IS THE BEST THANK YOU I WATCHING YOU EVERY DAY IN BLOOMBERG. THANKS FOR ALL YOUR WORK...
Quite right, Mohamed El-Erian´s strong diplomatic skills as well as his cogent intelligence and unmistakable visionary wisdom.
He's not that special, this isn't rocket science. Central banks and governments cause inflation and destroy societies/economies with fiat currency. Same as Zimbabwe, same as Venezuela...
He is solid in both the economics of what mistakes were made and how to correct will only be our immaculate solution...He has given us insight beyond all the others interviewed!
Being of age and how to manage the sequence of returns in those early periods is what seems quite scary in the current market. The market is never a loser in the twenty year cycle, but the 2000s decade scenario scares me and could really disrupt my retirement. When you're no longer accumulating but withdrawing, it's hard to be anything but cautious.
For now, investors getting started can feel overwhelming. Risk loom large and complicated, unfamiliar financial jargons can be intimidating.
@@jachikeonwuka3824 Apparently that's true, I agree. It is mostly disastrous for newbies or anyone who doesn't adhere to a well thought-out strategy and over all, a professional broker.
@Richard Perkins Being trying to get started, but i end up loosing out. Do you have a professional broker???
Wow, I'm just shocked someone mentioned and recommended expert Mrs Diana Lynne Bobka.
I thought people don't really know her.
I invested £ 2,000 with Mrs Diana Lynne Bobka after i met her at a conference in London, she made me profit of £ 11,790 in just 7- 14 days of trading with her and i invested more.
Hello!!,
I'm pleased to meet investors of Diana Lynne Bobka. I recently ventured into investing with her undertaking trades on my behalf. She has been of great help and her tutelage has brought me to a higher understanding of profit generation.
There are so many self anointed economist its nice to see this channel have professionals discuss the issues...without all the BS anger and politics
"Immaculate solution," "neutral is a variable, not a parameter," -- damn, El-Erian makes me miss those grad econ/fina classes taught by great researchers who were also great professors.
Another stellar interview from Bloomberg.
Fed lost credibility decades ago .
Mr Ferro is the best on what he does!!!!
I’m a bit surprised Mohamed would opt for true inflation running at 17-18% vs recession. Let the true inflation get in trenches at these levels I’m buying stock in tent makers. Look around the world at what inflation does to a country.
I’m already losing my mind. When I walk in to a store I’m paralysed by the prices, I can’t bring myself to spend.
I know that’s right. I’m a single guy with grown kids with all my major purchases behind me. I really feel for family’s and all the expenses they have.
Because the rich all have assets that are inflation proof
Poor Mohammed, he thinks Powell has made an unintentional "mistake"
Mohamed is SO right ! As allways !!
Best interview that I have seen in a long time. El Erian is the top economist. The interviewer was awesome.
Mohamed El-Erian for fed chair!
Lolololol no
Better still End the Fed
Where was the fed hawkish? Two years of inflation and we are at .25 interest rate. If that’s a hawk? I would really hate to see the dove.
I usually love El-Erian, but there's no way I'd let inflation persist. The world needs to take its medicine. It needs high interest rates.
Agreed, not sure why he thinks devaluing the currency (and risking hyperinflation) is not worth a couple years of pain
It would be the end of the US since they wouldn’t be able to service its debt
@@loudnewsnet7796 Exactly, although the established orthodoxy seems to be to let inflation rip as this inflates away the debt, as if that somehow makes the debt smaller. No, me neither.
Completely disagree, he is saying let inflation run rampant but don't risk recession.
Poor pay the price of inflation not rick people like him
It needs to be a recession to correct all this crap.
Simply amazing, what is more is his cleanness. Glade to know him even only to see fromTH-cam. Thank you, Mr Erian.
Eliminate central bank the market will take care of itself
🏆
El-Erian is perhaps the greatest living economist in the world. Listen to this man.
Not even close...please consider Peter Schiff
@@generalyan7084 Peter Schiff is ok, he got me into Mises when I was in college 15 years ago.
I feel
>
Jeff Erno trading sections are awesome and one of the best Signal provider I believe.
The most amazing part of it all is that you are not affected by the rise and fall in btc price
Absolutely fantastic! Big things happening tomorrow
he is not much of a talker but a doer. I never believed when he told me i could make profit from trading until i withdrew 3btc to my block chain just January here. Jeff Erno is good when it comes to trading and i will recommend him for other investors.
What would I want to ask the chairman? Why are you still buying 50 Billion dollars worth of mortgage backed securities every month, Mr. Chairman?
Powell should not be confirmed.
Inflation benefits Bankers and destroys working middle class.
Does anyone remember Powell’s many lies and "mistakes"?
This goes back to the G-span put.
Hit us with a recession for a year or two and move on...high inflation for a several years will pis. me off
Yeah but higher prices rarely become low again, whereas a recession will result in lower prices, They will never accept this.
Careful what you wish for us we may just get both!
Wait until they cut within 12 months.
The 3.5% unemployment is not accurate. It hasn't been updated in ages. It does not factor in the recent Great Resignation in which nearly 50 million people have quit their jobs in the past two years. That pushes the number well above 20%. So the Fed really needs to be _dovish_ rather than tanking the economy.
Very simple a free market capital system was not meant to be manipulated. Just the concept of a "Central Bank" and a free market system will never work. The great depression was a manifestation of natural boom and bust cycles. We keep wanting to avoid the economic bust that actually humbles a society and reminds us to be grateful, self reliant and have a simple work ethic. I'm afraid the we have no clue now what's coming.
The great depression was not natural, it was manifested by the Fed keeping rates too low in the roaring 20s for too long. Sound familiar???
The stock market is still overvalued, that's the piece of the puzzle he seems to be ignoring. Low corporate taxes and high stock values are inflationary.
Without price stability the economy is broken. A 20% correction is not the market breaking.
Mr Ferro and Mr El-Erian make the world of finance visible to ordinary people in a delightful manner. What I take away from this vocast is Mr El-Erian's 'loser/loser' comment about the Fed's latest actions. Chairman Powell seemed so uplifted and positive in his latest announcement and then we hear from Mohamed El-Erian that recession is a probable outcome. It's hard for us outside the world of finance and markets to understand how bad things are going to get because of decisions at the top which will not make things better but turn the world upside down. The French have an expression "jamais deux sans trois". Never two things without a third. We've had a pandemic and it's still poking its ugly head above the clouds and now a war in Ukraine and I hesitate to predict that there just may be a doozy of a recession waiting in the wings. Boys and girls, we will get through these world-shattering events, but I fear the world will be a much different place when we emerge to the other side of these Earth-shattering developments. It's an opinion.
El-Erian - You can't go to cash, bonds, commodities or crypto.
Also El-Erian - It's time to take some out of equities...
Real estate
@@aaronclouse7634 REITs are partially correlated with equities. It's not foolproof.
He’s no magician. And neither is anyone else. You are still stuck with a number of unpalatable choices. You’re going to have to balance any portfolio with Stocks, bonds, commodities and cash. His advice is to lighten up on equities. If you have the stomach for some volatility, then go to commodities. If not, then cash and short term bonds in a mix. He was describing what asset managers have to do, not what an individual might do. Individuals do not have annual performance reviews, they have (presumably) longer time horizons.
This man very wise I think.
Maybe it’s time to admit that Powell, the Fed and the talking heads don’t really know what’s going on in the economy or has any clue about inflation? They have let the system get too financialized, too complicated and far far too indebted.
They either don’t have a clue or this is some strange plan of theirs to help themselves and their wealthy comrades
They know. They do not care. A quarter point is exactly what it was. Nothing but a headline.
How does one lose something they never had???
There are two main reasons for the onset of global inflation: one is affected by the epidemic, the U.S. economy is in recession, the Federal Reserve printed a lot of money, putting $3 trillion into the market last year and another $1.9 trillion into the market this year, which led to the rapid depreciation of the U.S. dollar, and the depreciation of the U.S. dollar led to a huge increase in the price of global commodities denominated in dollars, which also directly pushed up the price of global raw materials.
Another is that, due to the global economic downturn, central banks have followed the example of the U.S. and implemented loose monetary policies in order to bring their economies back up, which has also directly led to the advent of inflation in various countries.
Faced with the advent of inflation in the United States, many experts suggest that people can invest in real estate and gold. However, we believe that this advice is not feasible. First of all, the property, three or four tier cities due to population outflow than inflow, investment in real estate is too risky, while the price of houses in first-tier cities is often seven or eight million or even tens of millions, the average person simply can not afford to buy, the money to pay the down payment is not enough.
In addition, real estate is now facing regulation and control, and has begun to see results, the price of housing around the beginning of differentiation, coupled with the majority of people have entered an aging society, the overall supply of property is greater than demand, the probability of the future rise in housing prices is not great, the good days of investing in property with eyes closed to make money has passed.
Then look at the investment in gold, by the impact of the depreciation of the dollar, international gold prices rose sharply, once to the end of last year's $ 2060 / ounce, and then began to fall from the high, at present, the international gold price is $ 1797 / ounce, has been at a historical high. And if investors want to invest in gold, they should wait for the international gold price to fall to below $1200/oz.
What's more, U.S. gold is a niche market, you buy gold easily, to sell gold is very difficult. The U.S. gold stores basically do not recycle gold, and the U.S. banks only recycle their own gold bullion, but also add fees and identification fees, so that investment in gold bullion is basically unprofitable.
So in the face of inflation, how do we deal with it? First, store appropriate food at home. For example, save some grain and flour
Of course, now there is no need to hoard a lot of grain and flour, enough for a month or two to eat can be, because too much grain hoarding will be damp and moldy, appropriate hoarding some can be.
Secondly, people nowadays can do some part-time jobs so that they can increase their income and counteract inflation. Of course, if you have a certain understanding of finance, history and other fields, you can try to invest into finance to earn extra income. In short, inflation is coming, salary income does not rise, only through part-time jobs to deal with inflation.
Third, keep some cash on hand, but also learn how to manage money to counteract inflation. Because there is some cash in hand, you can buy the necessities of life, and if people are sick, they can get timely medical treatment. And inflation period, often accompanied by economic downturn, the asset bubble will burst, if there is enough cash in hand, you can wait until the asset bubble fell to the lowest in history, and then low absorption, so it is likely to speculate to the bottom of history. Of course, while the inflation can also learn about financial management, so that you can also be through the financial gains to counteract inflation.
It's gonna be print and pray for the next 5-10 years.
In 100 years the Federal Reserve will be looked at with the same amount of disdain that people look at the robber barons from the railroads in the 1800s today.
Its about time these people agree that we are going into stagflation.
The Fed might be thinking that market forces and what is between people's ears will correct everything.
Inflation is eviserating our economy. Do you truly believe increased inflation should be allowed to fester. Rents up 500 a month. People will not have a dime to purchase or sustain ant real growth in our economy.
El- Erian should lean what many people do not understand. DO NOT BET AGAINST THE FED. You will not win. Never ever!
No shit! Hyperinflation is about to get ugly
Equities rising 😅10 yr Yield at record high .. been scaring us for years of interest rate rises and hawkish Fed… we’ve been rallying for years on dovish statements and policy guidance.. now ultra hawkish in forward guidance and actual interest rate policy … but equities rally!! Clearly a stop hunt, taking out all the shorts before a big fall!! Bond Mkts moving in accordance with Fed’s hawkishness
Buy the dip this bubble will not end any time soon.All I see is companies expanding.And people getting raises and bonuses like crazy.
Indeed that Bison story wasn't a cool reminder.
FED has full credibility with rich people, aka, asset holders, they got rich while poor eat crap
Sir you are 100% Right! Most people in America know what's coming, and it won't be pretty.
You fight inflation with raising interest rates and less government spending which is not happening.
I agree.
Get rid of the fed.
And trust whom, Congress? They cant even pass Fiscal Policies other than spending bills to keep the campaign contributions rolling in.
Zero credibility in the credit system is a bad thing. Everyone with debt is responsible.
Mohammed el errand is a bond trader not stocks bond investors
He is an advisor to many public companies.
@Here4deepfakes cool.... and Buffet is the king. Mahmood EL-Amadimajad is an idiot.
Maybe using debt to expand the money supply by lowering interest rates for 40 years and encouraging the public to borrow ever higher multiples of their income was a mistake. Perhaps if the money supply needs to constantly expand in order to keep prices rising at 2% and output growing then maybe the government should spend more money domestically. Debt to income has been trending up whilst the cash rate has trended down to 0% for 4 decades now. Debt to income multiples have been growing all over the world for decades. The government combined with the fed have the ability to print money, why do they need to rely on commercial bank's lending practices? What happens when we can't lower the interest rate any further, the Fed just prints money and dumps it into the bond market to increase borrowing? This is idiotic, Milton Friedman was wrong.
That would have been a sound discussion if the goal was responsible fiscal and monetary policies. Unfortunately I think they've in the Roman "let them eat cake" mode for those 40 years now. Politicians more worried about expanding their personal power than anything else.
"Brace for impact"
The only framework these fedsters should have are bars in front of them all.
So this is the banks disappointed in the Fed?
Should do? _"I'd rather make a mistake of letting inflation persist then throw this economy into a recession."_
Will do? _"IDK..."_
Yes…dunno what he’s high on.
Fed raised rates. But dollar lower as Canada and Australia rates are higher. Market ripped higher.
United States is so screwed.
Where do you go: GOLD🥇
Erian talks both sides of mouth. On one hand he's saying Fed moved too slow. Which I agree. Then he says Fed must move slow to prevent recession.
Stagflation is the wrong diagnosis.
This is not the 70s, labor share of income is at a low, not at a high as it was in the 70s. Private debt is at a high, not a low as it was in the 70s.
Wage driven inflation is definitely not the enemy, it would be a welcome sign that debt is being paid back, the economy is becoming more resilient, and demand is picking up.
Apart from energy inflation, the inflation we have makes it look like the Fed's money printing is going to propping up the markets at the expense of the real economy.
Fundamentally, what's been happening is we've been dumping ever more debt on the public since the Volcker shock to compensate for flat income growth. After we rode interest rates all the way down to near 0%, the debt market becomes effectively saturated, so that's not going to work anymore, and the Fed resorted to money printing.
Well, the problem is structural, then. Over the long run, it makes no sense for house prices, market prices to increase, while incomes and private debt load are flat.
If the money printing were going to increasing wages, and paying back debt, we'd be completing the economic circle, and setting the stage for another era of economic growth.
Instead, we're using money printing to prop up the markets at the expense of the real economy.
I don't think this ends well at all. If we are to accept that the Fed, and central banks, are to manage the economy instead of elected governments, then I think we have to acknowledge that they don't really have the tools to dig out of this mess. Because they're not sending that money to the places where it would be really effective.
I think if you want central banks to continue to manage the economy, they need to be granted a mandate to distribute money widely to the general public, in the form of UBI, or some kind of universal dividend, in circumstances where interest rates are near 0%.
If you want elected governments to fix this issue, be wary that some of these governments will have some funny ideas about how to effectively get money to the working class. Historically, this is the time for war making.
Nothing more dangerous than wages chasing prices. Also the participation rate of labor says 34% unemployment.
The u.s. is headed to an inflationary depression. Way far worst than 70's or even 1929 since it will be inflationary.
@@eljefe5858 The entire world has been mired in the Denial Depression since 2008-09. Trillions of dollars in wealth was evaporated on a worldwide scale and all Congress did was hand the keys to a new car to the drunks on Wall Street that drove the car into the ditch and totaled it.
THIS^^^^^
Sheesh! we are at .25% fed funds and QE is going to end. To normalize rates a little won't throw us in to recession unless we're on our way regardless. He must be long bonds or something...
Everything's in a bubble, the 10 year Treasury at 2.5% will pop it for sure...but I do believe the air is seeping out already. Hold tight to your pancake coin.
Brilliant analysis as usual from El-Erian, my favourite economic commentator. I do agree. FED has lost it. They are demonstrating FOMC after FOMC, speech after speech that they are always behind, always reactive instead of proactive, never able to anticipate correctly. It is as if they were long on equities and that they are too afraid to handle the inflation issues because you know if stock markets go down that would bad... The idea that stock markets would always go higher is laughable. Sooner or later, stagflation or recession will hit and the FED will be like oohhh we're sorry, we did our best...
It seems like El-Erian was expecting a dip in the markets from the FOMC meeting and Powell talking about a 50 bps increase if necessary so as to buy the deep but instead he missed the rally.
What I've learned in my 11 years of investing is this "is Warren Buffett or Charlie Munger speaking? No? Then do listen to anyone else."
Not El-Mahmood Amadinajad, not Peter "the gold peddler" Schiff, not Jim "Bow Tie Singapore" Rogers or Marc "Doom Gloom tiny pony tail depressed" Farber.
@@rally_chronicles you just named the Four Horsemen of the Markets Apocalypse
FED has already stated that they want to overshoot 2% inflation target . Were they not right?
Based on Mohamed’s comments, worth drilling down into the FOMC member composition to understand their collective thinking.
They had credibility!? 😲
The FED is hurting the Real Estate market, banks are manipulating mortgage rates, you can call 2 different mortgage companies and get a 1.5 % difference in the same hour.
if wants credibility then they need to raise by 100 basis points every meeting including March.
Hard agree
Recession would be Cool for me...
🤣🤣
It wasn't a mistake.
As long as economists think the Fed didn't anticipate inflation, they will continue to be frustrated and "puzzled" by Fed actions
Prices= velocity of money times money supply divided by GDP.
All things being equal, if you increase money supply by 40%, you will get a 40% increase in prices.
Do you think Jerome Powell doesn't know this basic economic equation? Do you really think he was surprised by inflation?
Inflation is a deliberate policy decision on the part of western governments to inflate away the unsustainable sovereign debt, and to transfer wealth from ordinary citizens to the government and its oligarch chronies.
*GLOBAL STAGFLATION, Thank you very much*
El-Erian says this is the time to lighten up on stocks. Okay. And put your money where??? He said himself that this is the wrong time to go to cash, buy bonds or commodities. Makes no sense!
I-bonds are probably the best place to park cash for the next year or so. With it's current 7.1% interest rate, it'll at least keep your money alive while this high inflation persists. Only drawback is youre limited to $10k a year.
@Katsuya89 ok so I k ow you weren't listening to powell but he said inflation will begin to come down in the summer.
Balance sheets healthy, economy strong, people going back to work, supply chains improving.
You act as if everything was destroyed and there is no infrastructure. Things were just closed for a bit. Once people work and restock supplies and get overtime to produce more then we'll be back to normal. Ugh pessimism
@Worst Case Scenario I'll follow Buffetts advice.
@@rally_chronicles And you're sure that Powell is gonna be right? This is the same guy that kept saying inflation is only transitory all of last year while continuing to print loads of money for way longer than needed.
I sure hope you're right about everything going back to normal soon, but I wouldn't count on it.
@Katsuya89 I thought helicopter Ben was crazy by spending us out of a recession but by God we did it.
As usual, the long sighted El-Erian is providing ammo to a condescending FED. They will make use of his comment to create new narratives and try to have it their way. They are so lucky to have people that give them well thought through suggestions. Too bad they are throwing everyone under the bus due to their negligence and ignorance.
Interesting fact 👆. El Erian used to be the voice of Elmer Fudd!
I don't want to see another recession, but it might be wise. Tough times. We avoided the market crash brought on by pandemic, now, personally I think keeping the dollar strong is a good move even if it brings recession. Raise interest rates a little under the highest we can and pro-long it for a great period. Stop the loose monetary policy, cut government spending, stop an inflationary monetary policy at that. Make better choices in the future. No more kick the can down the road policies. No more propping up the stocks. No more banking systems helping out investors in the housing markets. No more mortgaging our children's futures. At the very least no more spending and keep inflation where it is or lower it some until we get on solid ground then Volker as much as possible after the bottle necks clear up.
@Rob Littel right no I think since the post i maybe understand some more.
@Rob Littel its all about financial suppression these days it seems. I can almost hear somebody in the distance saying " we dont want to kill em..we just want to keep em weak..otherwise whose gonna be there to serve us?"...who all it is i dont know but I figure some one somewhere feels this way
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Fed lost already when they continue to over print USD last year. There is no such thing as free money and low inflation. Now, they can pick which side to lose, recession or inflation. Or both.
You go into physical gold
The FED is terrified....they see the inevitable coming.....
Is it part of the Fed’s mandate to please the markets?
Powell doesn’t control inflation , Biden blames him for higher prices ahead of midterm elections and asks for fed pres resignation. Powell causes a recession, Biden blames Powell ahead of mid-term elections and replaces Powell with money printing dove. Feel bad for Powell in a way. End result is that money printing starts again by summer.
@@steveshideler1333 uh, no. There’s zero reason to feel bad for powell. He’s just cleaning up his own mess at this point.
Now overlay onto what was said ; the current world wide monetary system is broken & has become a net impediment so is ready for an overhaul.
If everyone get out of equity u know what you get?