You work for 40yrs to have $1M in your retirement, meanwhile some people are putting just $10K in a meme coin from just few months ago and now they are multimillionaires.....
productivity never happens by chance;it is always the result of careful preparation,dedication, and consistency.i thank GOD for my advisor MR. Yuval Eric Brokman; with his assistance between $10,000 and $25,000 every week👌
his method is accurate and demonstrates that he has a lot expertise;it is critical to work with a professional while investing,especially as a newbie;this is why i also work with MR. Yuval Eric Brokman.
It would be great to see how BlackRock would rank in a list like this. If Google started to pay even a small dividend, it’s stock price would go up significantly.
Is there anything like proof recession stock? I am 58 years and would like help in managing my retirement portfolio which is currently $1.25M...down from a high of $1.67M….
It's a delicate season now, so you can do little or nothing on your own. Hence I will suggest you get yourself a professional that can provide you with entry and exit points on the securities you focus on.
Very true! I've been able to scale from $350K to $650K this red season because my FA figured out Defensive strategies to protect my portfolio and profit from this roller coaster market.
The investment-advisor guiding me is Laura Marie Ray, she is popular and has quite a following, so it shouldn't be a hassle to find her, just search her
@@Adukwulukman859 Thank you for this tip. it was easy to find your coach. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her résumé.
The one I have to disagree with is Microsoft, because that company is S Tier in every way imaginable. Yes, the stock has become a bit expensive after the run of the recent months, but one factor that was not mentioned in the video is cash and debt. Microsoft has the best credit rating of any company and it has considerably lower debt than Apple, even if I agree that Apple is S Tier as well. Debt is an increasingly important factor as interest rates are rising and hence the costs to service those debts are rising as well. Microsoft is one of the very best run companies, it is extremely high quality, it is low debt and it is aggressively pushing the "hype topic #1" that is AI, which allows it to leverage its de facto monopoly in the highly lucrative business applications market and create more growth and eventually monster cash flows. I'd replace S&P with Microsoft in the S-Tier, but other than that there is little argument from me with your list.
Federal Reserve may soon lose control of interest rates, claims Heresy Financial. This comes as a result of the United States government's intention to embark on a $1 trillion borrowing spree. This might cause the banking sector to lose so much liquidity that rates spiral out of control and are no longer in the control by the federal reserve. I'm sorry to say that despite investing, I lack the mental capacity to evaluate each company's performance and decide whether or not now is a good moment to acquire stocks. My reserve of $650K is being wiped out by inflation and the recession. Sincerely, I have no idea what to do.
@Tunnel Vision may you let me know who is your coach? I've listened of coaching, an elective to sending cash out indiscriminately, where ventures are made in a individual exchanging account with the help of a proficient advisor. Is this exact?
Thanks for the advice. The search for your coach was simple. I researched her well before arranging a call with her. Considering her resume, she appears knowledgeable.
She appears to be a true authority in her profession. I looked her up online and found her website, which I browsed and went through to learn more about her credentials, academic background, and career. She owes me a fiduciary duty to act in my best interests. I set up an appointment to use her services.
Great video! I would love to see the following in a future video: ADBE, ULTA, MCSI, ETSY, V, STNE, UPST, ABNB, POOL, CMG, AVGO, COST, QCOM, TGT, SBUX, etc. just to name a few 👍
question - this stock based compensation. does that normally get set as a number of shares or as shares worth a certain dollar amount? so does the stock based comp as a % of the market cap go up as the stock price goes down (unless they fire a load of people)?
I think I mostly agree with your takes. I think Salesforce will be moving up When I look at Adjusted free cash flow yield, I look at the company’s adj FCF margin vs their gross margin. This lets my know how efficiently profitable they are. I would say Netflix and CRM are not efficient yet and when they become so, they will fly up your list Suggestions for a next video, Adobe(beautiful yield), Broadcom(a beaut), Lululemon, Palo Alto would be great to look at.
Incredible analysis, once again, Jospeh. I genuinely LOVE your content. Quick question - what would you consider an ‘average’ gross (pre SBC) free cash flow yield? ‘Good’, I assume, is 6-7%+ ‘Bad’, I assume, is less than 1% Thanks
Excellent video. One of your best. Would appreciate your views on some other mid cap stocks. Block, SOFI, Alibaba, Cloudflare, OnSemi, CRWD. Full video on PayPal would be excellent. Is PayPal going to be like META was!???
Nvidia has a mind boggling market cap right now but you should research who can make the processors that power AI (not many), mature tech they've had for years now (CUDA and their clusterable A100 and H100 GPUs - industry defining tech), demand/backorder for their product (impossible to obtain unless you're backed by serious money), etc. If you believe AI is going to be relevant then Nvidia is THE company to consider. The only question to me is how overvalued they are. Right now they might be overvalued but if AI continues to scale, the demand for compute will only rise. I'm not saying it is a good stock or a good stock pick or even a good company. I only saying that a future that includes AI includes Nvidia.
Re SBC they expect so much vs the talent they exhibit vs people from other big tech companies. To compound this this suffer from inflated titles. Basically SF excessive SBC has resulted in over paid, over entitled yet poorly qualified and experienced staff. Plus their product is pretty shit at the end of the day. Great sales people though!
Hi Joseph, I have a question perhaps you could kindly answer. Do you know how buybacks affect the weightings of index ETFs given that they are market weighted, which I guess means that buybacks should not affect the weightings as buybacks do not impact the market cap of the company. However if this is the case, then how do index investors benefit from buybacks?
It’s good to add back stock based comp to free cash flow. However the explanation provided when comparing Apple and Google doesn’t hold up because stock based comp is included as a cost in the P&L. It is therefore taken into account within the P/E metric
Would like your opinion on Bp. It is slightly bigger than Chevron and trades at almost 1/3 the price. Looks way too cheap to me. (They are still good at finding oil).
It’s a bit of a slow grower. Less demanding valuation. Ample downside protection. But slower growing. I think if they can get a great CEO. The one they’re trying to get, it could double with raising margins.
Great effort I think you punished Tesla too much. I am not a bull for Tesla but they have definitely executed their strategy and not with the amount of growth in FCF they may be able to continue beating the expectation. It may not be a lot because people already have high expectations and it is reflected into the current price. Tesla is definitely a buy at the correct price.
Allen they don’t deduct buy back money from free cash flow calculation, so in the case of Google if they buy back same amount of money as SBC, they basically bumped the free cash flow yield from 2.6% to 3.8% vs paying employees cash directly since Salary payment is considered expenses
You mentioned that visa and mastercard are almost identical companies, this is true if we take a comparison of, for example, margins, but visa generates a lower return on assets as well as equity, however, for the last years it has grown its free cash flow faster., so I wonder why you chose mastercard to your portfolio.
Tesla is my best investment yet. I'm up 40% since starting to buy late 2022. Will hold until near the end of the decade for what I think will be enormous returns
Thanks Joseph. One thing that others might have already pointed out is that SBC isn't just given out for "free". Its a way for employees to stay motivated, to put in the late nights, weekends, go the extra mile because they own a piece of the business. It helps recruit some of the best talent and the idea is that it leads to outsized growth. The last decade has not been a good reflection of that due an entire generation of entitled young software engineers. Case in point, Google did not manage to outgrow its rate of allocating more SBC. However do you not feel that culture has shifted some of late with the tech layoffs and hard look at efficiency of output relative to overall compensation? If so, shouldn't SBC account for something positive in future earning potential instead of pure dead weight on the books? Just my thoughts.
Not to mention the fact that without those very same employees, there wouldn't even be any value or cash flow or anything in the company. Everything would grind to a halt.
I recently made more purchases. Saving money for a market downturn is likewise a bad idea. There are numerous ways to look at recessions and depressions, we cannot always expect to make large returns, and taking chances is better than doing nothing. The bottom line is that you will achieve remarkable results by diversifying your portfolio and making wise decisions. My portfolio's raw earnings rose by $608k in just 5 months.
Despite my confidence in your advice, my recent stock purchases, and the fact that I am an AMC shareholder, I haven't been able to accumulate anything. I had already been in the hole for too long prior to the downturn. What's the investing procedure?
with the help of my consultant Camille Anne Hector, I've been investing for a while, and I couldn't be happier. Her company offers the broadest financial guidance currently accessible, has given me the best ROI while safeguarding my capital. It never squanders my money on dangerous speculation or poor risk-management techniques.
That is amazing! Since my portfolio has greatly deteriorated, I could really use this advisor's expertise. If you could suggest how to get her attention, I would be grateful.
Find her online, then get in touch with her. She’s well renowned for her work as a consequence of a recent Bloomberg piece. She has a homepage devoted to consultations.
Long-term investors know that the market and economy will recover eventually, and are well positioned for the rebound. Personally still going hard on this crazy market and I'm doing just fine.
I would move down Mastercard, S&P and CP to A tier. Mastercard and S&P have silly high valuations. CP is a business with risk and a questionable future. Google and Microsoft belong in S tier. I also would move Netflix to C tier. Love the product, but it requires constant throwing in money. It’s not a coincidence that they hardly ever had good free cash flow. Imo, it’s not sustainable. At least it will not steadily grow. I would put Amazon in C tier. Disney belongs in F tier. They are a mess and have no real potential to get out of it anytime soon. Intel is in a rough spot, but they’re on the way back. It will take time. But they’re making sound investments.
There are so many problems with Disney: 1) Disney being forced to buy Hulu will have little to no synergy effect. They will be spending unnecessary money, because of a unfavourable clause. 2) Disney is too focused on pushing agendas, instead of good story-telling. Just look at how they handle the upcoming "Snow White" film. This could be the Bud Light moment for Disney. Definitely the second Dark Age for Disney films. 3) Sports organisations has all the bargaining power. Every few years, the price of acquiring sports content will increase. That's why I think FuboTV is a bad investment (similarly for ESPN). 4) Disney movies cost too much to make, especially when they need to pay the "big names" to return in MCU films/series. Every Disney film needs to make at least $500 million to breakeven, considering the film budget and marketing costs. 5) The public is starting to boycott Disney parks as well. Not sure how long can this cash cow survive. However, I still think Disney is a great company with valuable IPs and content library. Will be interested if share price keeps falling.
Hey Joseph, when you make this video in future, can you put two tables? One for "companies moat rating" and the other "the invest-ability" at that time
Technically you probably want to look at both overall Free Cashflow and per share. Good companies will raise total as well as per share. Companies can grow the per share metrics via buybacks while having total free cashflow completely stagnant…
Thank you for putting in the time to create these videos. I have deep appreciation for the quality of your content. Would you love to hear your insights on Broadcom and Amgen. Completely different from your current holdings.
Joseph, would love your thoughts on the new payments system being trialled in Australia by our biggest grocer, Woolworths. In association with the four biggest banks in Australia, they’re trialling a system that bypasses the Mastercard, visa, Amex terminals and offers same day settlement at between 50%-60% of the cost. Woolworths processes around $60B transactions a year, so other retailers have said they’re keeping an eye on the system for implantation if it’s successful
In Asia, it's also becoming more and more common for people to pay by QR code, either using their bank's app or using a digital wallet. That system too completely bypasses the Visa/Mastercard duopoly.
1. For stocks that he doesn’t like: See? The FCF is so terrible. 2. For stocks that he has bought (Amazon): The FCF is so terrible, but I bet it will change. If not, I will lose money. So what’s the point to even look at FCF yield as a metric then?😂😂
You do realize there is a good reason the literal best companies give stock, right? Good people do good when they own the company they find themselves being paid well from
With markets tumbling, inflation soaring, the Fed imposing large interest-rate hike, while treasury yields are rising rapidly-which means more red ink for portfolios this quarter. How can I profit from the current volatile market, I'm still at a crossroads deciding if to liquidate my $125k bond/stocck portfolio.
The strategies are quite rigorous for the regular-Joe. As a matter of fact, they are mostly successfully carried out by pros who have had a great deal of skillset/knowledge to pull such trades off.
thank you for the in depth video, if you find the time can you do a look into AMD. I would love your opinion i recently started taking gains due to a large jump in price.
Very good video! Definitely gives me perspective on CP. I understand why so many superinvestors are buying it and need to do more research into the industry.
Joseph I´m a loyal follower from Mexico, great video as always ¡¡ I was wondering if you have thought about launching some kind of companies valuation analysis course using Qualtrim and any other tool you use. I believe t would add a lot of value to your community ¡¡¡ Keep it up ¡¡
No, buybacks are after Adjusted Free Cash Flow. Take the FCF, deduct the SBC to include the actual amount you have left to work with, and that's what you have left for buybacks and dividends.
This is a common misconception. Buybacks in no way impact how you should calculate the valuation of free cash flow yield. Company 1: Has 1 billion in free cash flow and pays 1 billion in SBC, it uses the free cash flow to buy back all the dilution. At the end of all of this investors are left with exactly $0 in returned value. The company was basically on a treadmill, walking, but going nowhere. As an investor you gained nothing. 100% of the free cash flows in this case were used to simply keep the share count the same. Company 2: Has 1 billion in free cash flow and pays 500 million in SBC, it uses the free cash flow to buy back all the dilution. This company is left with $500 million in actual free cash flow after neutralizing the SBC dilution. The investors gained $500m. Company 3: Has 1 billion in free cash flow and pays $0 in SBC. It does not need to buyback any shares to offset dilution. So 100% of the free cash flow, all 1 billion, is left to actually reduce shares outstanding. This means that the investors in this company have a real, full, 1 billion in cash returned to them. So whether or not a company buys back the dilution, the dilution still eats away at the capacity of the company to return cash back to the shareholder. And investors are much better off calculating the free cash flows adjusted for SBC because it's a much more accurate portrayal of true cash left over to return to the investor.
Amazon is like one of those smart kids got side tracked by glits and glamour, but will start to shine once all bad behaviors are out of system. Apple msft are expected to stay on honor roll, kinda boring, but will make you steady money. Tesla is a tricky one, EV has to be able to prove it's battery longevity to stay in the game for long haul...
I disagree on PayPal. Based on the values I saw for PayPal It should be in S category.. It supposed to be a comparison based on free cash flow metric, not on future competition with Apple. And now based on valuation is an S. For the rest I agree with you. Keep up the great work!
But Longterm investors should look future growth than current free cashflow, paypal is nothing but just a payment process, huge competition from apple, google pay, crypto
@@Aotearoa-NZL It was a valuation on actual free cash metric based on actual yield and the last 10 years growth.. not future.. Indeed Amazon has been put in F. and not for the future growth that probably will be amazing but for actual free cash flow hield.. so based on that PayPal should be in S category with a almost 6% free cash flow yield and almost 20% growth in the last 10 years.
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You work for 40yrs to have $1M in your
retirement, meanwhile some people are putting just $10K in a meme coin from just few months ago and now they are multimillionaires.....
The thing about been successful is working toward it and not going the other way round
You are right. Been thinking of going into gold and cyptocurrency
It's obvious everyone is doing this online Investment
@@thylda7877I totally agree with you it has been an eye-opening experience for a lot of people.
Investment is the key to achieving success with the current pandemic slowing down so many businesses aww
productivity never happens by chance;it is always the result of careful preparation,dedication, and consistency.i thank GOD for my advisor MR. Yuval Eric Brokman; with his assistance between $10,000 and $25,000 every week👌
his method is accurate and demonstrates that he has a lot expertise;it is critical to work with a professional while investing,especially as a newbie;this is why i also work with MR. Yuval Eric Brokman.
working with specialists like Yuval Eric Brokman in any pitch will likely result in improvements and profits..
@Logan Ross google his name
Yuval Eric Brokman✅
you will find his webpage.
It would be great to see how BlackRock would rank in a list like this. If Google started to pay even a small dividend, it’s stock price would go up significantly.
A tier. Lol
You were actually right.
Is there anything like proof recession stock? I am 58 years and would like help in managing my retirement portfolio which is currently $1.25M...down from a high of $1.67M….
It's a delicate season now, so you can do little or nothing on your own. Hence I will suggest you get yourself a professional that can provide you with entry and exit points on the securities you focus on.
Very true! I've been able to scale from $350K to $650K this red season because my FA figured out Defensive strategies to protect my portfolio and profit from this roller coaster market.
@@Adukwulukman859 Please can you leave the info of your investment advisor here?
The investment-advisor guiding me is Laura Marie Ray, she is popular and has quite a following, so it shouldn't be a hassle to find her, just search her
@@Adukwulukman859 Thank you for this tip. it was easy to find your coach. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her résumé.
The one I have to disagree with is Microsoft, because that company is S Tier in every way imaginable. Yes, the stock has become a bit expensive after the run of the recent months, but one factor that was not mentioned in the video is cash and debt. Microsoft has the best credit rating of any company and it has considerably lower debt than Apple, even if I agree that Apple is S Tier as well.
Debt is an increasingly important factor as interest rates are rising and hence the costs to service those debts are rising as well.
Microsoft is one of the very best run companies, it is extremely high quality, it is low debt and it is aggressively pushing the "hype topic #1" that is AI, which allows it to leverage its de facto monopoly in the highly lucrative business applications market and create more growth and eventually monster cash flows.
I'd replace S&P with Microsoft in the S-Tier, but other than that there is little argument from me with your list.
You’re correct.
More of these please! My requests: HD, CSCO, VICI, JNJ, O, UNP, T, MMM, and COST
Visa also
Do your own xD
@@richardgg2889 ha. just so you know... he literally asked for which ones you'd like to see in the video
@@richardgg2889 he asked us to give him companies to review. Obviously you did not watch the whole video so I thought I’d fill you in xD
META
Federal Reserve may soon lose control of interest rates, claims Heresy Financial. This comes as a result of the United States government's intention to embark on a $1 trillion borrowing spree. This might cause the banking sector to lose so much liquidity that rates spiral out of control and are no longer in the control by the federal reserve. I'm sorry to say that despite investing, I lack the mental capacity to evaluate each company's performance and decide whether or not now is a good moment to acquire stocks. My reserve of $650K is being wiped out by inflation and the recession. Sincerely, I have no idea what to do.
the market has gone berserk! whether you're a newbie or a veteran trader, everyone needs a sort of coach at some point to thrive forward.
@Tunnel Vision may you let me know who is your coach? I've listened of coaching, an elective to sending cash out indiscriminately, where ventures are made in a individual exchanging account with the help of a proficient advisor. Is this exact?
Thanks for the advice. The search for your coach was simple. I researched her well before arranging a call with her. Considering her resume, she appears knowledgeable.
She appears to be a true authority in her profession. I looked her up online and found her website, which I browsed and went through to learn more about her credentials, academic background, and career. She owes me a fiduciary duty to act in my best interests. I set up an appointment to use her services.
Great video! I would love to see the following in a future video: ADBE, ULTA, MCSI, ETSY, V, STNE, UPST, ABNB, POOL, CMG, AVGO, COST, QCOM, TGT, SBUX, etc. just to name a few 👍
To name a few? You’ve mentioned half the friggin stock market. 😂😂 Settle down.
@@jin6000 I named 15, most of which he owns or discusses on his channel. Calm down.
stne? pool? upst?. but seriously POOL? more like POO amarite?
for nvidia this aged so well 😂
Great video Joseph! Would love to see you look over Chipotle, intuit, Union Pacific, occidental petro (oxy), visa, Starbucks, Costco, Walmart and MPW
I like MPW value
@@mjregan88 The value is looking great but the stock just keeps tanking until they sort things out
Love the list
Yes I have been asking for this video for months! I love these kind! You are the man!
Loved this video! I am a bit biased towards Tesla, but agree with everything else! I’d put Tesla at A
question - this stock based compensation. does that normally get set as a number of shares or as shares worth a certain dollar amount? so does the stock based comp as a % of the market cap go up as the stock price goes down (unless they fire a load of people)?
Important question!
"being in the red by 5000, to being in the green by 9000". please speak %, we do not care how large position you have
I think I mostly agree with your takes. I think Salesforce will be moving up
When I look at Adjusted free cash flow yield, I look at the company’s adj FCF margin vs their gross margin. This lets my know how efficiently profitable they are. I would say Netflix and CRM are not efficient yet and when they become so, they will fly up your list
Suggestions for a next video, Adobe(beautiful yield), Broadcom(a beaut), Lululemon, Palo Alto would be great to look at.
Can you do an ETF list instead? Stock picking is inadvisable for atleast 90% of the people. Long terms VTI + VUG + SCHD would beat most stock pickers
you are wrong, nvidia and netflix should be at least A
I like the tier ranking approach to stocks. Relative ranking forces some interesting decision making.
I think saying Tesla is just a car company is the same as saying Apple is just a phone company ❤
As you mentioned paypal may lose market share to apple pay...isn't it the same for visa and mastercard also Joseph.
Great content 🎉
Your mindset and Knowledge is S tier. Thank you not just for the result but showing us your work.
Would love to see you analyze Broadcom
Incredible analysis, once again, Jospeh. I genuinely LOVE your content. Quick question - what would you consider an ‘average’ gross (pre SBC) free cash flow yield?
‘Good’, I assume, is 6-7%+
‘Bad’, I assume, is less than 1%
Thanks
Thanks for the video Joseph. Can we see COST, EL, PLTR, or ADBE next time?
Thanks for explaining the tier system
I know right!!!!
Excellent video. One of your best. Would appreciate your views on some other mid cap stocks. Block, SOFI, Alibaba, Cloudflare, OnSemi, CRWD. Full video on PayPal would be excellent. Is PayPal going to be like META was!???
If you do Masted Card you should also do Visa (V). I would also like Costco in here.
Nvidia has a mind boggling market cap right now but you should research who can make the processors that power AI (not many), mature tech they've had for years now (CUDA and their clusterable A100 and H100 GPUs - industry defining tech), demand/backorder for their product (impossible to obtain unless you're backed by serious money), etc. If you believe AI is going to be relevant then Nvidia is THE company to consider. The only question to me is how overvalued they are. Right now they might be overvalued but if AI continues to scale, the demand for compute will only rise.
I'm not saying it is a good stock or a good stock pick or even a good company. I only saying that a future that includes AI includes Nvidia.
If you’d worked with people from Salesforce, you’d know not to invest in them!
Justify/expand your comment pls
Re SBC they expect so much vs the talent they exhibit vs people from other big tech companies. To compound this this suffer from inflated titles. Basically SF excessive SBC has resulted in over paid, over entitled yet poorly qualified and experienced staff. Plus their product is pretty shit at the end of the day. Great sales people though!
lol
Why
I would never invest in them after using their software and developing against their apis.
Hi Joseph, I have a question perhaps you could kindly answer. Do you know how buybacks affect the weightings of index ETFs given that they are market weighted, which I guess means that buybacks should not affect the weightings as buybacks do not impact the market cap of the company. However if this is the case, then how do index investors benefit from buybacks?
It’s good to add back stock based comp to free cash flow. However the explanation provided when comparing Apple and Google doesn’t hold up because stock based comp is included as a cost in the P&L. It is therefore taken into account within the P/E metric
Would like your opinion on Bp. It is slightly bigger than Chevron and trades at almost 1/3 the price. Looks way too cheap to me. (They are still good at finding oil).
Where would you put UNP? Do you still think it is going to double?
It’s a bit of a slow grower. Less demanding valuation. Ample downside protection. But slower growing. I think if they can get a great CEO. The one they’re trying to get, it could double with raising margins.
What an amazing TH-cam video. I really like the creativity and the entertainment you bring along with your wisdom. Thanks Joseph
Great effort I think you punished Tesla too much. I am not a bull for Tesla but they have definitely executed their strategy and not with the amount of growth in FCF they may be able to continue beating the expectation. It may not be a lot because people already have high expectations and it is reflected into the current price. Tesla is definitely a buy at the correct price.
Joe, if a company has high SBC dilution, but they also do stock buy back and offset the dilution, when that be still a problem or not?
That’s money they’re spending to offset dilution that could be spent reducing share count in net. So yes, still needs to be factored in.
@@JosephCarlsonAfterHours thanks. It's think this is the case for Google, they do lot of SBB to offset SBC.
Allen they don’t deduct buy back money from free cash flow calculation, so in the case of Google if they buy back same amount of money as SBC, they basically bumped the free cash flow yield from 2.6% to 3.8% vs paying employees cash directly since Salary payment is considered expenses
Stock base comp doesn't matter if they are buying back more shares than they are diluting, so no, goog cash flow is better than MA
S Tier looks pretty much like a Buffet portfolio: Apple, Credit Cards, Rating & Railroad :D
BRK.A, COST, PLTR, PINS, PANW, TD, HD, FB, AXON, AMD, SQ
You mentioned that visa and mastercard are almost identical companies, this is true if we take a comparison of, for example, margins, but visa generates a lower return on assets as well as equity, however, for the last years it has grown its free cash flow faster., so I wonder why you chose mastercard to your portfolio.
Tesla is my best investment yet. I'm up 40% since starting to buy late 2022. Will hold until near the end of the decade for what I think will be enormous returns
Thanks Joseph. One thing that others might have already pointed out is that SBC isn't just given out for "free". Its a way for employees to stay motivated, to put in the late nights, weekends, go the extra mile because they own a piece of the business. It helps recruit some of the best talent and the idea is that it leads to outsized growth. The last decade has not been a good reflection of that due an entire generation of entitled young software engineers. Case in point, Google did not manage to outgrow its rate of allocating more SBC. However do you not feel that culture has shifted some of late with the tech layoffs and hard look at efficiency of output relative to overall compensation? If so, shouldn't SBC account for something positive in future earning potential instead of pure dead weight on the books? Just my thoughts.
Not to mention the fact that without those very same employees, there wouldn't even be any value or cash flow or anything in the company. Everything would grind to a halt.
Tesla is really a decent car company with great marketing.
I recently made more purchases. Saving money for a market downturn is likewise a bad idea. There are numerous ways to look at recessions and depressions, we cannot always expect to make large returns, and taking chances is better than doing nothing. The bottom line is that you will achieve remarkable results by diversifying your portfolio and making wise decisions. My portfolio's raw earnings rose by $608k in just 5 months.
Despite my confidence in your advice, my recent stock purchases, and the fact that I am an AMC shareholder, I haven't been able to accumulate anything. I had already been in the hole for too long prior to the downturn. What's the investing procedure?
with the help of my consultant Camille Anne Hector, I've been investing for a while, and I couldn't be happier. Her company offers the broadest financial guidance currently accessible, has given me the best ROI while safeguarding my capital. It never squanders my money on dangerous speculation or poor risk-management techniques.
That is amazing! Since my portfolio has greatly deteriorated, I could really use this advisor's expertise. If you could suggest how to get her attention, I would be grateful.
Find her online, then get in touch with her. She’s well renowned for her work as a consequence of a recent Bloomberg piece. She has a homepage devoted to consultations.
Long-term investors know that the market and economy will recover eventually, and are well positioned for the rebound. Personally still going hard on this crazy market and I'm doing just fine.
I would move down Mastercard, S&P and CP to A tier. Mastercard and S&P have silly high valuations. CP is a business with risk and a questionable future. Google and Microsoft belong in S tier. I also would move Netflix to C tier. Love the product, but it requires constant throwing in money. It’s not a coincidence that they hardly ever had good free cash flow. Imo, it’s not sustainable. At least it will not steadily grow. I would put Amazon in C tier. Disney belongs in F tier. They are a mess and have no real potential to get out of it anytime soon. Intel is in a rough spot, but they’re on the way back. It will take time. But they’re making sound investments.
There are so many problems with Disney:
1) Disney being forced to buy Hulu will have little to no synergy effect. They will be spending unnecessary money, because of a unfavourable clause.
2) Disney is too focused on pushing agendas, instead of good story-telling. Just look at how they handle the upcoming "Snow White" film. This could be the Bud Light moment for Disney. Definitely the second Dark Age for Disney films.
3) Sports organisations has all the bargaining power. Every few years, the price of acquiring sports content will increase. That's why I think FuboTV is a bad investment (similarly for ESPN).
4) Disney movies cost too much to make, especially when they need to pay the "big names" to return in MCU films/series. Every Disney film needs to make at least $500 million to breakeven, considering the film budget and marketing costs.
5) The public is starting to boycott Disney parks as well. Not sure how long can this cash cow survive.
However, I still think Disney is a great company with valuable IPs and content library. Will be interested if share price keeps falling.
Hey Joseph, when you make this video in future, can you put two tables? One for "companies moat rating" and the other "the invest-ability" at that time
Wouldn’t it make more sense to just look at the growth of free cash flow per share to factor in SBC aka stock dilution?
Technically you probably want to look at both overall Free Cashflow and per share. Good companies will raise total as well as per share. Companies can grow the per share metrics via buybacks while having total free cashflow completely stagnant…
Thank you for putting in the time to create these videos. I have deep appreciation for the quality of your content.
Would you love to hear your insights on Broadcom and Amgen. Completely different from your current holdings.
THANKYOU JOESPH...for helping me to learn to make WISE DECISIONS..WHEN I INVEST..
A champion I see is Constellation Software. Like CP it's canadian but having operations & traded in US.
Here is my list:
S: Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet
A: Salesforce, NVIDIA, Tesla, Paypal
B: S&P Global, Mastercard, CP
C: Intel
F: Netflix, Disney
As someone who went to a boarding high school with a demerit system, this word choice made me smile 😅
Joseph, would love your thoughts on the new payments system being trialled in Australia by our biggest grocer, Woolworths. In association with the four biggest banks in Australia, they’re trialling a system that bypasses the Mastercard, visa, Amex terminals and offers same day settlement at between 50%-60% of the cost. Woolworths processes around $60B transactions a year, so other retailers have said they’re keeping an eye on the system for implantation if it’s successful
In Asia, it's also becoming more and more common for people to pay by QR code, either using their bank's app or using a digital wallet. That system too completely bypasses the Visa/Mastercard duopoly.
I have lost a lot trying to invest on my own, I keep making loses. Can anyone help me out or at least tell me what I'm doing wrong?
You got Nvidia way too wrong
PayPal better over all than nvidia? Really? This video is super biased
1. For stocks that he doesn’t like: See? The FCF is so terrible.
2. For stocks that he has bought (Amazon):
The FCF is so terrible, but I bet it will change. If not, I will lose money.
So what’s the point to even look at FCF yield as a metric then?😂😂
Always appreciate your perspective on the markets. 🙏
What does MasterCard do with their free cash flow? Dividends and stock buyback are dismal.
Most of it goes to dividends and buybacks. It seems dismal because the stock is so expensive.
The SBC Impact calculation is broken for companies with negative FCF
be honest is it late to hop on NVDA
High quality video. I will be looking forward to the next one. Thank you.
You do realize there is a good reason the literal best companies give stock, right? Good people do good when they own the company they find themselves being paid well from
I’m interested in joining the patron. I’m curious how far back does the data in qual trim go?
Would be great to see MCO, TROW, AXP, GNRC, MU.
Based on FCF Yield PYPL should've been S-tier
Please include AVGO Broadcom next
Hype seems to work better than cash flow
Would love to see Berkshire B, visa, JNJ,AXP, UNH, MU,MCD,Ko,pepsi, Nike, P&G,JPM, BAC, WMT,Costco,
With markets tumbling, inflation soaring, the Fed imposing large interest-rate hike, while treasury yields are rising rapidly-which means more red ink for portfolios this quarter. How can I profit from the current volatile market, I'm still at a crossroads deciding if to liquidate my $125k bond/stocck portfolio.
The strategies are quite rigorous for the regular-Joe. As a matter of fact, they are mostly successfully carried out by pros who have had a great deal of skillset/knowledge to pull such trades off.
NVDA is way too low Your coolaid should be chgd
U should look into the energy business for tesla and u will see it’s not just a car company
Where would be Costco?
Highest tier. No brainer.
Do u also adjust for stock buybacks?
thank you for the in depth video, if you find the time can you do a look into AMD. I would love your opinion i recently started taking gains due to a large jump in price.
Very good video! Definitely gives me perspective on CP. I understand why so many superinvestors are buying it and need to do more research into the industry.
Hope you have an Ulta update coming too
I read the ULTA report and think the reaction is a bit overblown, little less projected growth but still in good track
@@luiscatandavila3466 I felt the same way guided down a tiny bit..
You rated Nvidia a "B". Hah. Lord Almighty...swing and a miss
Joseph I´m a loyal follower from Mexico, great video as always ¡¡ I was wondering if you have thought about launching some kind of companies valuation analysis course using Qualtrim and any other tool you use. I believe t would add a lot of value to your community ¡¡¡ Keep it up ¡¡
Amazon was up 5% today for some reason.
@@musa7606 why is it happening?
@@musa7606 thanks!
I think not having a 5% allocation to Tesla is a mistake. There will be serious alpha medium term IMO.
Many of these companies also buy back shares in size, so you also need to consider that for your free Cashflow yields, not only the stock based comp
No, buybacks are after Adjusted Free Cash Flow.
Take the FCF, deduct the SBC to include the actual amount you have left to work with, and that's what you have left for buybacks and dividends.
@@andrewwhitcomb4857 do you mean the FCF amount is after the deduction of SBB amount, hence no need to account for SBB again?
This is a common misconception.
Buybacks in no way impact how you should calculate the valuation of free cash flow yield.
Company 1: Has 1 billion in free cash flow and pays 1 billion in SBC, it uses the free cash flow to buy back all the dilution. At the end of all of this investors are left with exactly $0 in returned value. The company was basically on a treadmill, walking, but going nowhere. As an investor you gained nothing. 100% of the free cash flows in this case were used to simply keep the share count the same.
Company 2: Has 1 billion in free cash flow and pays 500 million in SBC, it uses the free cash flow to buy back all the dilution. This company is left with $500 million in actual free cash flow after neutralizing the SBC dilution. The investors gained $500m.
Company 3: Has 1 billion in free cash flow and pays $0 in SBC. It does not need to buyback any shares to offset dilution. So 100% of the free cash flow, all 1 billion, is left to actually reduce shares outstanding. This means that the investors in this company have a real, full, 1 billion in cash returned to them.
So whether or not a company buys back the dilution, the dilution still eats away at the capacity of the company to return cash back to the shareholder. And investors are much better off calculating the free cash flows adjusted for SBC because it's a much more accurate portrayal of true cash left over to return to the investor.
@@JosephCarlsonAfterHours thanks for the explanation. I understand and agree.
@@Rhino11111111 how is money going to an investor?
Effectively, shares are bought in the market and given to employees.
I really enjoyed this video Joe, I hope to see more videos like this with different companies!
Meta would be a nice addition to your next ranking video.
AMD, DDOG, ASML, MELI, UBER, V, MCO, PANW, TSM, TTD
Netflix's stock would go to the Moon if they just made a series called "Ow my balls!"
If we all know the recession is coming, isn't better to buy during recession instead of now? Genuine question to Joseph. Thank you.
Amazon is like one of those smart kids got side tracked by glits and glamour, but will start to shine once all bad behaviors are out of system. Apple msft are expected to stay on honor roll, kinda boring, but will make you steady money. Tesla is a tricky one, EV has to be able to prove it's battery longevity to stay in the game for long haul...
Where would u put brk.b in your rankings
Soooo more CP. got it! Would love to hear your thoughts on CN rail!
Interesting to see CP in with the likes of Mastercard Apple etc Wouldn’t have thought about it that way. Great video
Id like to see how you would rank enph
I disagree on PayPal. Based on the values I saw for PayPal It should be in S category.. It supposed to be a comparison based on free cash flow metric, not on future competition with Apple. And now based on valuation is an S. For the rest I agree with you. Keep up the great work!
But Longterm investors should look future growth than current free cashflow, paypal is nothing but just a payment process, huge competition from apple, google pay, crypto
@@Aotearoa-NZL It was a valuation on actual free cash metric based on actual yield and the last 10 years growth.. not future.. Indeed Amazon has been put in F. and not for the future growth that probably will be amazing but for actual free cash flow hield.. so based on that PayPal should be in S category with a almost 6% free cash flow yield and almost 20% growth in the last 10 years.
Your guidance long term is good. However short term it's hard to see the flyers with Nvidia and Tesla as an example.. So hard to predict
Are there significant reasons to favor MA over V?
where would you put $costco??
Hello Joseph
Which of these stocks is undervalued ?
Probably paypal
are you still an ULTA investor Joseph? I'm curious because it looks very good on paper.
Need some more dividend stocks in here. Great breakdowns! $JNJ? $LOW?
V, ODFL, BLK, SNA, ADBE pls