Happy Thanksgiving! This is a big episode, it took a bit more time to prepare. If you appreciate the effort hit the thumbs up button and it wouldn't hurt to subscribe to the channel. We're very close to 100k. Hope you have a wonderful week! Join the Patreon today: www.patreon.com/josephcarlson Patreon includes: 🎥 Over 100 exclusive videos, and new ones every week. 🚀 Full access to Qualtrim.com, the stock analysis website I built from the ground up 📚 Transparent portfolio updates, with every buy and sell I do, as well as monthly one-pager updates. 💬 Access to the Joseph Carlson Show private discord community, with 4,500 members Try it out with a risk-free trial!
You are right . But beware of babies that exploit robotic technology like TGL. The latter has created a futuristic platform, completely managed by robotic machines, to manage and maximize the e-commerce earnings of the giant Tik Tok. Virtual machines could soon dominate
I will be forever grateful to you, you changed my entire life and I will continue to preach on your behalf for the whole world to hear you saved me from huge financial debt with just a small investment, thank you Rebecca Hickman
Wow. I'm a bit perplexed seeing her been mentioned here also Didn’t know she has been good to so many people too this is wonderful, i'm in my fifth trade with her and it has been super.
"Thanks bud for keeping us financially Educated! Regardless of how bad it gets on the economy, I still make huge profits every single week, I was able to build a big income stream investing with Mrs Louise O'Brien
@Joseph, as a long term follower, I think you should combine the 2 portfolios. It doesn't really make sense to have the same stocks (like Apple and MSFT) in 2 different portfolios and "treat them differently" so to speak. My 2 cents :)
I think all companies in passive income portfolio pays dividends. That's one of the key components long term. So two channels and portfolios are fine :)
@@jmcauhy I don't need two portfolios to justify another youtube channel. I could come up with plenty of content with just one portfolio. The portfolio's are a bit different, Passive Income is up 23% YTD (as of today), Story Fund is up 63% YTD. So the performance and concentration is quite a bit different. The Story Fund right now is going to be decided on Amazon and Netflix Primarily. I think I want to see it through until 2025. In terms of Performance. The Passive Income account did about 2% better than SPY in 2022, YTD Passive Income is up 23% while SPY is up 20% total returns. So it's had slight outperformance over the past two years, but that's not enough time to be statistically significant. The Story Fund was off to a terrible start with a few bad moves on my part. But it's now within 2% of SPY (as of today), and has pretty strong momentum over the past 6 months. Whether I manage these portfolio's separately or together, I can end up calculating the aggregate performance at the end of 2025 to get a better idea.
Please more videos on the GDP, bond market, CPI, and options are needed. It's imperative to hedge in this market. I'm trying to diversify my portfolio among several assets such as stocks and bonds since this can protect my $750k retirement portfolio. I want to know: Do I keep contributing to my portfolio in these unstable markets, or do I look into alternative sectors?
@josephbush Awesome.. Please I would love to know or get in touch with your investment advisor. I could really use such expertise in growing my portfolio now that the entire markets is uncertain
@debwes Heather Lee Larioni is my portfolio-coach, I found her on Bloomberg where she was featured, I looked up her name on the internet. Fortunately I came across her site and reached out to her, you can verify her yourself.
I’ve got a couple of good ETFs in my portfolio and I still got other share holdings doing incredible numbers. I’m up 47% YTD! I’m also well positioned with good blue chip companies and I have stop losses in place.
Thanks and all the best on your investing journey. Personally with insights from my advisor I prefer to invest in large cap companies which have economic moats, large cash flows and strong balance sheets. Some of which are AAPL, MSCI, IUKD, VHYL, SCHD, NVDA and Barclays…
His passive income portfolio would be very similar to something like SCHD or VIG (dividend growth funds), or quality-tilted ETFs like MOAT or QUAL. It is a good style, but in my opinion, I still think a market weighted portfolio would outperform. There are many risky small/large cap value stocks that are at historic extreme levels of cheapness relative to the high quality growth companies Joseph prefers. A broader market rally would likely see them outperform greatly from here. Quality has done its job of not totally crashing/burning in a bear market, but it also limits upside.
I will be forever grateful to you, you changed my entire life and I will continue to preach on your behalf for the whole world to hear you saved me from huge financial debt with just a small investment, thank you Mrs Michelle Stewart
S&P 500 is Up and will do better in 2024, as indicators for profits continue to improve, making investors like me believe that “Santa has come early” to the markets. How to boost a $250k portfolio in order to achieve 7-figures would be appreciated, I only have 5 years to retirement.
wow massive gains! my partner recently hinted on going same direction.. what did you invest in, and who is your investment advisr please, if you dont mind me asking? in dire need of asset allocation
Best of Skills on your investments.. . Long-term = Wealth Creation. AI sector stocks keep beating on Earnings and delivering the Gains. * SOUN.. 35 % month.. SoundHound. $ 342 mil in Backlogs/ 219 Institutional Investors..* BBAI 38 % mth...* NVDA Up 16 % mth...* IDAI Up 12 % mth...* PLTR Up 26 % mth.. Thumbs UP video / comments... Thanks.
Your portfolio is as you say, bulletproof, I feel your portfolio setup will be market beating for many many years if not decades to come. Awesome stuff as always Joe!
Been an investor for over 25 years so I’ve seen ups and downs. I don’t like all your investments (the railroads for example) but I really like your strategy and mindset overall and enjoy your videos.
I keep thinking about following into the railroad idea, but I don’t have any personal knowledge of the industry. It seems logical but I don’t have any personal experience of the business so I I am holding out for now. If the price drops any lower I think I would like to do some serious research of the risks and norms of the industry.
@@stevetop5970feels like rails are more of the past. I know they have pricing power and efficiencies over other means of transportation but I don’t see much potential growth in terms of news rails being built. You see abandoned railroads everywhere and people develop that land for residential and commercial use.
They aren't as bad as Twinkies, but there's pretty good evidence and general consensus that an optimally healthy diet is Mediterranean style with guidelines for about 4oz per week of red meat. Of course, a million different influencer personalities will tell you as many differentthigs, that carnivore is best, or keto, or Paleo, but the best evidence suggests steak is not particularly good for you, especially served at a steak house that's trying to control costs.
I think it has a better product but as a company it has one big disadvantage that I have seen. That the ROCE OF AMEX is a lot lower than that of MA and V. And at the end of the day higher consistent ROCE leads to higher long term returns
Hey, great video but something has often puzzled me in your videos. When you show gains from the M1 finance, it says 49% gain in MA for instance, but how does that number make sense when the total invested amount is 65k and gains are 7k?
80% equities 20% cash. I plan to take advantage of the next market downturn where s&p 500 will drop below 15%, the issue is how to properly allocate a $1m stock/bond ratio for steady gains, yet indicators are playing a trick on us with the ongoing rally.
A major component that I need to know about your portfolio is your avg cost in these stocks yes your portfolio is amazing and your doing amazing but these stocks right now are expensive if I buy these stocks today I would not make the same gains as you I tried to be patient and scroll thru but you only showed the company’s financials not your avg cost you showed how much you owned which is good but not knowing what price you got in on these stocks is kinda dangerous for someone just watching your videos without knowledge of price is everything can you please help
I don’t understand why you think you can match the returns of another investors portfolio. If you’re trying to copy another’s portfolio then you will always be behind, if you make your own investments, you may achieve higher returns than another investor. But by definition you can’t really keep up with anyone if you’re choosing to follow. You really can only outperform or underperform.
He says he is holding on some of these company's meaning he isn't buying more right now because everything is kinda expensive. The railroads and maybe vici are the only fair/under valued from his port. Trust your gut you were right to think everything is expensive. I'm DCA into a couple etf's and just building my cash for a couple months at a time waiting for a price to fall.
@@MrCococdanot wanting to copy any investor just trying to learn smart investors thought process on price targets of very good companies I’ve bought way to high on really good companies and my research is correct but learning intrinsic values of companies is important to me my portfolio is very small like 9 tho and gains are ok but but nothing over 100 bucks and only one in the red but only 2 dollars so I believe I bought to high none of these companies are in my portfolio but I’m still learning and it would be very useful to see ok he bought that stock at like 90 a share well it’s 400 now so ok he had to wait really long time for a pullback what made him say 90 was ok to get into that stock and why 90 was a good price and was ok with that price
@@Thenumbers1686 Do not trust your instincts . learn how to trade with discipline. Joseph took two years to acquire 475K to invest it’s all down to discipline and investment goals. Start from the beginning
Joseph I think you should structure these PowerPoint type videos so your face cam doesn’t block some of the words. I see you move the face cam a few times but it would be better if it were out of the way entirely. Love your videos keep it up 👍🏻
They opened the first location in Sweden in fall of 2022. Way too early to tell. Costco’s are always low traffic the first few years (outside of China)
@@JosephCarlsonAfterHours You know more about Costco than me but the way they have established themselves here just isn’t adapted to Swedish consumers. In order to get to the Costco you need to drive for 30-45 minutes, there’s no subway line going there, etc. I bought a membership just to check it out and was impressed once I got there. But Swedes in the 3 big cities (the only places with a potential market big enough) just don’t like driving far to do their shopping. Maybe Costco will manage to change that habit but it seems doubtful. But I’d like to be proven wrong
Intuit . Love it how blind investors always find excuses why stockbased compensation aren’t that bad . Every year you get diluted but who cares . Instead of getting a dividend you loose everytime and need to hope that the companie still grows to outpace that shit . What happens when grows Stopps is shown at PayPal . On the other hand their are companies like railroads who don’t even grow much but because of moat , high margin and dividend + stock buyback , you earn a lot even with no grows. Now think what would happen to Intuit if they don’t grow 20%+ every year but 9%. While having 4% stock based compensation and 3% inflation . The only people who earn really money in that case are intuit management and workers .
super portfolio! if you'd consider a health company, which would it be: UNH, ISRG, MTD, TMO, NVO, LLY or other? i think UNH and TMO are good candidates (i have them in my portfolio) and i'd like to add ISRG, at a lower price...!
I analyzed UNH recently and the only problem I saw is that it's ROCE is not as big as the one I'm looking for. But the valuation and fundamentals look great!
I have been watching for a while now. Have a fe ETF holdings but would really like to DCA into some of these suggestions. He makes very good cases for all the companies that are invested in. However some are regarded as “holds”. Does that mean not to invest in them or wait until the price goes down and value goes up or should I gradually increase my holdings each month?
If a company that he has is a hold, it means that right now its not a good time to invest additional money into at this time, unless you wanna pay a premium. At the time he bought the stocks they were priced much lower but the price has gone up so much that its time to hold those stocks and look for other quality stocks at good value
That’s not necessarily the case, a suggestion of hold can be interpreted in several ways, typically it’s best to interpret it in the manner that is described in the reply ☝️ above. It’s not an ideal time to increase your position. However, in my opinion, a stock is only recommended as a hold of it has growth/return potential. If there isn’t any potential then it would be a sell not a hold. It might not be the ideal time to increase a current position but if your position cost can be averaged down or you don’t currently have a position then hold should be interpreted as a buy. If it’s worth holding then it’s worth having, so if you don’t have any… a hold can be a buy. If your current position cost can only be averaged up given the current price then you might want to see a “strong buy” rating before increasing your position. That’s my 2¢
His theory is that for a company's price to be attractive, it's Free Cash Flow Yield should be 3% or higher. You could take that as a top line reference
Omg, Joseph! I just noticed that you are wearing the exact same Depeche Mode hoody that I am wearing right now. Awesome!! I can’t stop wearing it, as it is so damn comfortable. 😎
@JosephCarlsonAfterHours Joseph, did you mention you calculate return of your portfolio as Money-Weighted return? I believe if you want to compare your performance against the S&P500, you should compare the Time-weighted return. This is because you have to compare 'like-with-like', and the published S&P500 returns will not be a fair comparison to your dollar-weighted return. What are your thoughts.
I actually calculate both of them, time weighted and money weighted. When I do my Story Fund updates, and compare the two lines together, that is time weighted returns. On the monthly update I share on the patreon, that is also time-weighted. It takes a few more minutes to calculate time weighted but I do so just make sure it's comparing the same thing. Since I have stopped investing new money in the Story Fund as of March of this year, the difference in the two returns (time weighted vs money weighted) is actually no difference. They only differ on new inflows and outflows of money, so when you never deposit or withdraw, it looks identical.
Joseph, I'm amateur and have a question regarding CP. In long term perspective, it is underperform SP500 or is quite close to it (if i'm not wrong). Does it make sense to 'play' with CP instead of just buying VOO/SPY? Thank you
I don't get how so many people are so comfortable buying and/or holding the SPGI's of the world at these levels. Here is a company that grew revenue at a 7-8% CAGR 2015-2021, with profit margin hovering around 30% and buying back ~2% of its shares each year at very questionable levels. The share price quadrupled. Why did it 4x? Well, the earnings multiple nearly tripled from 13-15 to the current 40 ($400, times 317m shares, divided by 30% of FY22 revenue 11.2b). The multiple won't triple again: it is in fact a lot more likely to halve if anything other than perfection materializes in the medium turn. So you are basically keeping your fingers crossed that multiples remain in bubble territory, clinging onto hopes of perpetual growth, perpetual expansion of already high margins, perpetual buybacks of shares that trade at lunatic valuations...
Same story for Intuit. In years when there is no acquisition, revenue grows at 10-12%, and margins were stable at 21-23% prior to FY23, somewhat lower around 16% in FY22-23, plus systematic 1% dilution. Multiple 10 years ago was 25-30; today it is 50-55 if you normalize by 20-23% earnings. With 10% growth, 22% profit margin, 30% profit distribution as a dividend and a 10% discount rate, the intrinsic value for a terminal earnings multiple of 20/25/30 is 230/285/335. How is it possible that these charts don't look like a bubble to so many people? As for the business model: in European countries, you don't even prepare a tax return yourself - the tax agency (just like the IRS) already knows nearly everything, so instead of having you file a return, they send you a tax report and ask you to confirm whether it is missing anything, which for the vast majority of people isn't the case. So there is no tax prepping middle man bribing the government so that it can continue to suck money out of taxpayers. Even you mention often that investors have a negative view on the company, because they think about it from a customer perspective, a customer that doesn't like the tax filing experience and sees Intuit as what it is: an unnecessary middle man adding no value that would likely be regulated away if the government was in the business of serving you. So when you put everything together (valuation, fishy business model, dilution, recent debt issuance...) I can't find a single reason to own this thing, other than the fact that the shares seem to appreciate consistently.
Impressive original analysis Joseph. Have you considered AXP for your passive portfolio? I have both AXP and MC but like AXP at its current stock price better. I also like CNI over CP right now ( I hold CP and UNP but recently initiated a position in CNI). The AAPL/MSFT/GOOG antitrust regulatory issues are tricky as you note, so it's probably best to invest in all three, which has been my approach (I like GOOG best, and am overweight in it relative to MSFT and AAPL).
@@JosephCarlsonAfterHours ok but is the same thing for real like what just give it someone else because it's nit fair for the other person sounds dumb to me still
I get your strategy up to 1:44in this video, but you used to go for dividend yields and amounts. Now you invest for capital gains and low yield. I recon with your current wealth, you should be doing this strategy. But I am still down in then 20K 😢total invested and practicing your earlier strategies.
@@Allen-L-Canada yeah, I know. But I am trying to use his current ‘teachings’ in my portfolio to invest in high yield, high risk positions. Working so far.
Joseph love your content. In india 🇮🇳 UPI mode.of payments appears to be beating visa.and mastercard. It also appears to have a growing global reach and probably a visible threat to visa and mastercard. Your thoughts.....UPI is totally FREE OF CHARGES TOO
@@hyperhippyhippohopper Yes, UPI (Unified Payments Interface) transactions are free of charge for individuals making personal transactions. This means you can send and receive money, make payments to merchants, and pay bills without incurring any fees. However, there may be charges for transactions made using prepaid payment instruments (PPIs), such as mobile wallets, above a certain amount. These charges are typically borne by the merchant, not the customer. The reason why UPI transactions are free is because the National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI), which operates the UPI platform, has subsidized the cost of transactions. This has been done to encourage adoption of UPI and to make digital payments more accessible to everyone.
I'm in the UK and have a stake in Chipotle Mexican Grill through my Vanguard S&P 500 etf. I'd never heard of it before, don't know it's menu, never tasted any Mexican food, because we don't really have it here in the UK, but I like the sound of it's name and am proud to own a share of it.
The Chipotle restaurants in my area, (Northern Virginia) stopped offering steak as a selection around 2 yrs ago and that's when I stopped going, but a few months ago I went back in and noticed that the Steak was back on the menu. so now I'm wondering why the changes?
Enjoyed the informative episode. I own quite a few of the stocks mentioned. Have been looking at CP quite intensely for last month or so. MA is my largest holding with V to a lesser degree. UNH, MSFT, AAPL and some INTU. Then Pharma stocks and the rest of other types of dividend bearing stocks as well as increasing VICI as of late as I agree. Well presented vid. I may not always agree, but opinions are greatly appreciated. Considering joining Patreon for your Qualtrim as looks to be a good bundle of info to explore with. Again, thanks
Hello Joseph! Thank you for your videos. They have challenged my assumptions and understanding. Even with all the knowledge in the world, sometimes you win, and sometimes you learn. Mostly because the world is random and 100% probability can fail. Lessons learned. Got to comments for you. One, yes, it is doable to beat the S&P 500, but most people don't have the financial structure or cash position to take the level of risk, IMO. There is nothing wrong with market returns as you, as well as Buffett, have stated. Second, I looked in the CP balance sheet to see if there is an opportunity there. Definitely, the price is under the 200-day moving average, and the dividend as well as forward earnings look promising. My concern is and sort of a rule of thumb for me, not to invest in companies with high debt to free cash. Free cash was around 500M, and debt was over 2B. Highly leverage even if they execute perfectly. That's my take. Thanks for the videos and commentary. PS. I am a career systems engineer, so we hate software engineers. 😂😅😊
Chipotle is gross. It's fast food, not good food. It all tastes the same. And, the ingredients aren't even warm (or cold, depending on the situation). Not to mention, Chipotle is not cheap. I don't understand why people eat there.
Was curious so I crunched some numbers assuming a Starting principal of $500k with monthly investment of $3000. Using the average annual return of the S&P 500 of 10%. Portfolio value in 20 years is around $5.5 million Assuming monthly investment of $2000 Portfolio value in 20 years $4.8 million At a savings rate of $1000 per month the portfolio grows to $4 million in 20 years Congratulations you have done the HEAVY LIFTING EARLY. Compounding will do the rest Stay Hungry
The sp500 is trading at 25x earnings, his holdings trade at >30x earnings, rates are high and the only reason gdp doesn’t contract is perpetual debt issuance. Good look getting that 10% in this environment. I think you can consider yourself fortunate if the sp500 is higher than it is today 10 years down the road.
Hey Joseph, I don't know if you'll get to read this... I've been following you since 2019 and I wonder if you know what your returns would be on your passive income portfolio if you never sold out on any company - if instead you just stopped adding money and let the % of said company get diluted away, and reinvested their dividend into other companies. Have you ever done that analysis? I'm curious if this "buy and hold" method would have outperformed.
I have never met someone who has had mexican food including me but hey i live in England no mexicans here. i dont like chipotle stock simply because i see better expansion in starbucks china
Hey Joseph, your videos are great and are thoughtful. But I think you need to do more research on Bitcoin. From this video, it seems like you fully don't understand the asset and the value add. Bitcoin is like digital gold and serves as a store of value. You can instantly transfer money trust less for a fraction of current costs. Cuba uses because of the hyper inflation if the Cuban peso. El Salvador made it legal tender. Allowing the under bank to participate in the economy and for a fraction of the cost. Also, it helps the under bank by allowing them to receive money from relatives aboard via the lighting network. I can go on but since you have a big following you shouldn't discredit Bitcoin without fully understanding. With that said keep up the good work.
You’re very very biased with your investments- I’m not saying they’re bad. Not at all. But when going over potential risks- You just keep going over why there’s no risks… that’s not good haha
Meat will become more expensive and stats I’ve seen say people will eat less cheap meat and it will become a premium food. It’s an environment killer producing gases (directly from the cow) that will have to be reduced it increased
Sayin that chipotle has one of the best food in the world is a strong statement 😅 I tried it once and I will never eat there anymore. Being Italian I liked much more Texas Roadhouse or other quick restaurants like Cava and Chick fil-a. I liked also Taco John more than Chipotle. Chipotle to me is one of the worst fast foods (just my honest opinion).
I’m wondering if people who went through the '08 financial crisis had a tougher time than I am having today, my plan was to work, save money and retire at 55, but high price for everything is an obstacle *Sigh, I now look towards the stock market to fuel my goal.
A coworker amid covid-19 outbreak proposed the idea of diversification to me, for positive results to offset negative performance, and then I followed up using an advisor in order to avoid any fiasco. Till date, I can attest to the success of this approach, seeing my investment grow into nearly 7 figure from an initial $250k ... maybe you should do the same.
impressive gains! mind sharing info on your adviser please? with inflation on the high, would love to increase my cash reserve and afford my desire without hassle
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You are right . But beware of babies that exploit robotic technology like TGL. The latter has created a futuristic platform, completely managed by robotic machines, to manage and maximize the e-commerce earnings of the giant Tik Tok. Virtual machines could soon dominate
I will be forever grateful to you, you changed my entire life and I will continue to preach on your behalf for the whole world to hear you saved me from huge financial debt with just a small investment, thank you Rebecca Hickman
Wow. I'm a bit perplexed seeing her been mentioned here also Didn’t know she has been good to so many people too this is wonderful, i'm in my fifth trade with her and it has been super.
I was skeptical at first till I decided to try. Its huge returns is awesome. I can't say much.
she's mostly on Telegrams, using the user name
Hickman109 💯 ..that's it
Joseph you stay away from questionable hype companies, that's smart! ✌✌
Greetings from Croatia
"Thanks bud for keeping us financially Educated! Regardless of how bad it gets on the economy, I still make huge profits every single week, I was able to build a big income stream investing with Mrs Louise O'Brien
I'm surprised you know her too. I've been making a lot of profits investing with her for a few months now.
Mrs Louise changed my life because of her huge profits I got from investing with her.
You invest with Mrs Louise too? Wow that woman has been a blessing to me and my family.
I was skeptical at first until I decided to try. It's huge returns is awesome! I can't say much.
SHE IS ON TELE GRAM 💯
@Joseph, as a long term follower, I think you should combine the 2 portfolios. It doesn't really make sense to have the same stocks (like Apple and MSFT) in 2 different portfolios and "treat them differently" so to speak. My 2 cents :)
I think all companies in passive income portfolio pays dividends. That's one of the key components long term. So two channels and portfolios are fine :)
Agreed, he should track his performance with his total invested money not just one small portfolio
@@TJR82 Then why not moving AAPL and MSFT to this portfolio?
This way he can have more content to justify 2 yt channels
@@jmcauhy I don't need two portfolios to justify another youtube channel. I could come up with plenty of content with just one portfolio. The portfolio's are a bit different, Passive Income is up 23% YTD (as of today), Story Fund is up 63% YTD. So the performance and concentration is quite a bit different. The Story Fund right now is going to be decided on Amazon and Netflix Primarily. I think I want to see it through until 2025.
In terms of Performance. The Passive Income account did about 2% better than SPY in 2022, YTD Passive Income is up 23% while SPY is up 20% total returns. So it's had slight outperformance over the past two years, but that's not enough time to be statistically significant. The Story Fund was off to a terrible start with a few bad moves on my part. But it's now within 2% of SPY (as of today), and has pretty strong momentum over the past 6 months.
Whether I manage these portfolio's separately or together, I can end up calculating the aggregate performance at the end of 2025 to get a better idea.
You should have jumped into FICO. I bought in about three months ago after seeing one of your investor videos. Up 28% in that time. Just do it!
Maybe he is less of a speculator than you are.
FICO way better than Moody or SPGI.
Each share is so expensive. I’d be able to own one share…..
Please more videos on the GDP, bond market, CPI, and options are needed. It's imperative to hedge in this market. I'm trying to diversify my portfolio among several assets such as stocks and bonds since this can protect my $750k retirement portfolio. I want to know: Do I keep contributing to my portfolio in these unstable markets, or do I look into alternative sectors?
Just try to diversify your portfolio to other market sectors, that way your investment is balanced and you don’t get to make so much losses.
@josephbush Awesome.. Please I would love to know or get in touch with your investment advisor. I could really use such expertise in growing my portfolio now that the entire markets is uncertain
@debwes Heather Lee Larioni is my portfolio-coach, I found her on Bloomberg where she was featured, I looked up her name on the internet. Fortunately I came across her site and reached out to her, you can verify her yourself.
@josephbush Thank you for this. I'm gonna check her out and try to reach her. I hope she gets back to me before my portfolio is completely gone.
Joe: Yeah 20 years, Steaks will still be peoples go to
W.E.F. : Are you sure about that?
I’ve got a couple of good ETFs in my portfolio and I still got other share holdings doing incredible numbers. I’m up 47% YTD! I’m also well positioned with good blue chip companies and I have stop losses in place.
Amazing well done! Which companies have performed best for you?
Thanks and all the best on your investing journey. Personally with insights from my advisor I prefer to invest in large cap companies which have economic moats, large cash flows and strong balance sheets. Some of which are AAPL, MSCI, IUKD, VHYL, SCHD, NVDA and Barclays…
Geez, strong performance in 2023. Congrats! Kick down those Wall Street doors
I’d say your IA is doing a great job protecting your portfolio. More still impressive as you’re making fortunes in these turbulent times!
I’d choose expertise any day because finding the right balance between investing and living is very important to me.
Joseph, additionally with CMG, the bodybuilding/fitness community firmly believe chipotle provides the cleanest and fastest meal with dense calories
You should create an ETF/Fund, I'd buy some. The ticker should be something like: JCAR
You know that’s not an easy thing to do? Only worth it to do it with scale. The finance industry is heavily regulated.
I am sure with just a bit of elbow grease you can create a similar allocation, since his portfolio is public and transparent
Actually this can be done on t212 and shared :)
His passive income portfolio would be very similar to something like SCHD or VIG (dividend growth funds), or quality-tilted ETFs like MOAT or QUAL. It is a good style, but in my opinion, I still think a market weighted portfolio would outperform. There are many risky small/large cap value stocks that are at historic extreme levels of cheapness relative to the high quality growth companies Joseph prefers. A broader market rally would likely see them outperform greatly from here. Quality has done its job of not totally crashing/burning in a bear market, but it also limits upside.
It’s not difficult look at CGDV SCHG VOO VYM or SCHD
Great to see you’re a Depeche Mode fan as well!! Thanks for your contribution to my financial knowledge.
Price to FFO of 11 for VICI is crazy. Guess I’ll buy more
same. I'm already heavy in VICI but these VICI prices are just too good to not buy more
Chipotle is great. Likewise with Costco!
steaks aren't unhealthy, they aren't processed.
I followed you into $SPGI back In October, when the share price was dipping. It’s been a huge winner since then 🏆
I will be forever grateful to you, you changed my entire life and I will continue to preach on your behalf for the whole world to hear you saved me from huge financial debt with just a small investment, thank you Mrs Michelle Stewart
I'm surprised you know her. I've been making a lot of profits investing with her for a few months now.
Mrs Stewart changed my life because of the high profits I got from investing with her.
You invest with Mrs Stewart too? Wow that woman has been a blessing to me and my family.
I was skeptical at first till I decided to try. Its huge returns is awesome. I can't say much
She often interacts on Telegrams, using the user name written below
Great content and visibility, Joseph!
S&P 500 is Up and will do better in 2024, as indicators for profits continue to improve, making investors like me believe that “Santa has come early” to the markets. How to boost a $250k portfolio in order to achieve 7-figures would be appreciated, I only have 5 years to retirement.
wow massive gains! my partner recently hinted on going same direction.. what did you invest in, and who is your investment advisr please, if you dont mind me asking? in dire need of asset allocation
thanks for putting this out, just found the official site of Theresa Leigh Detrick after inputting her full name on my browser, she is valid
Best of Skills on your investments.. . Long-term = Wealth Creation. AI sector stocks keep beating on Earnings and delivering the Gains. * SOUN.. 35 % month.. SoundHound. $ 342 mil in Backlogs/ 219 Institutional Investors..* BBAI 38 % mth...* NVDA Up 16 % mth...* IDAI Up 12 % mth...* PLTR Up 26 % mth.. Thumbs UP video / comments... Thanks.
You make a compelling argument for reasons to invest in these companies. Nice work.
Your portfolio is as you say, bulletproof, I feel your portfolio setup will be market beating for many many years if not decades to come. Awesome stuff as always Joe!
Been an investor for over 25 years so I’ve seen ups and downs. I don’t like all your investments (the railroads for example) but I really like your strategy and mindset overall and enjoy your videos.
Why not the railroads?
I keep thinking about following into the railroad idea, but I don’t have any personal knowledge of the industry. It seems logical but I don’t have any personal experience of the business so I I am holding out for now. If the price drops any lower I think I would like to do some serious research of the risks and norms of the industry.
@@stevetop5970feels like rails are more of the past. I know they have pricing power and efficiencies over other means of transportation but I don’t see much potential growth in terms of news rails being built. You see abandoned railroads everywhere and people develop that land for residential and commercial use.
Top class video by a very clever gentleman and well thought through… he believes in himself and his research. I personally really like this!
honestly, the most transparent youtube investor i have found
Fully disagree on "steaks are unhealthy" comment 😛
They aren't as bad as Twinkies, but there's pretty good evidence and general consensus that an optimally healthy diet is Mediterranean style with guidelines for about 4oz per week of red meat.
Of course, a million different influencer personalities will tell you as many differentthigs, that carnivore is best, or keto, or Paleo, but the best evidence suggests steak is not particularly good for you, especially served at a steak house that's trying to control costs.
What is your opinion on American Express and what is its potential growth vs mastercard and visa. Thiers product technically is better imo.
I think it has a better product but as a company it has one big disadvantage that I have seen. That the ROCE OF AMEX is a lot lower than that of MA and V. And at the end of the day higher consistent ROCE leads to higher long term returns
I laughed out loud when your refered to steak as unhealthy 😅
Happy Thanksgiving! So grateful for the quality content over the years and qultrim software.
Happy Late Thanksgiving!
Hey, great video but something has often puzzled me in your videos. When you show gains from the M1 finance, it says 49% gain in MA for instance, but how does that number make sense when the total invested amount is 65k and gains are 7k?
I think it's because he has built his position over a long time so M1 Finance bugs out a bit with the percentages
High quality! CNBC should invite you to work for them.
80% equities 20% cash. I plan to take advantage of the next market downturn where s&p 500 will drop below 15%, the issue is how to properly allocate a $1m stock/bond ratio for steady gains, yet indicators are playing a trick on us with the ongoing rally.
A major component that I need to know about your portfolio is your avg cost in these stocks yes your portfolio is amazing and your doing amazing but these stocks right now are expensive if I buy these stocks today I would not make the same gains as you I tried to be patient and scroll thru but you only showed the company’s financials not your avg cost you showed how much you owned which is good but not knowing what price you got in on these stocks is kinda dangerous for someone just watching your videos without knowledge of price is everything can you please help
I don’t understand why you think you can match the returns of another investors portfolio. If you’re trying to copy another’s portfolio then you will always be behind, if you make your own investments, you may achieve higher returns than another investor. But by definition you can’t really keep up with anyone if you’re choosing to follow.
You really can only outperform or underperform.
He says he is holding on some of these company's meaning he isn't buying more right now because everything is kinda expensive. The railroads and maybe vici are the only fair/under valued from his port. Trust your gut you were right to think everything is expensive. I'm DCA into a couple etf's and just building my cash for a couple months at a time waiting for a price to fall.
@@MrCococdanot wanting to copy any investor just trying to learn smart investors thought process on price targets of very good companies I’ve bought way to high on really good companies and my research is correct but learning intrinsic values of companies is important to me my portfolio is very small like 9 tho and gains are ok but but nothing over 100 bucks and only one in the red but only 2 dollars so I believe I bought to high none of these companies are in my portfolio but I’m still learning and it would be very useful to see ok he bought that stock at like 90 a share well it’s 400 now so ok he had to wait really long time for a pullback what made him say 90 was ok to get into that stock and why 90 was a good price and was ok with that price
@@kp1242 thanks buddy I will trust my instincts 👍
@@Thenumbers1686
Do not trust your instincts . learn how to trade with discipline. Joseph took two years to acquire 475K to invest it’s all down to discipline and investment goals. Start from the beginning
Joseph I think you should structure these PowerPoint type videos so your face cam doesn’t block some of the words. I see you move the face cam a few times but it would be better if it were out of the way entirely. Love your videos keep it up 👍🏻
Costco was collecting subscription fees before subscription fees were a thing.
I can tell you that Costco hasn’t succeeded here in Sweden at all
They opened the first location in Sweden in fall of 2022. Way too early to tell. Costco’s are always low traffic the first few years (outside of China)
Does the Costco in Sweden sell Snus and Surströmming?
@@JosephCarlsonAfterHours You know more about Costco than me but the way they have established themselves here just isn’t adapted to Swedish consumers. In order to get to the Costco you need to drive for 30-45 minutes, there’s no subway line going there, etc. I bought a membership just to check it out and was impressed once I got there. But Swedes in the 3 big cities (the only places with a potential market big enough) just don’t like driving far to do their shopping. Maybe Costco will manage to change that habit but it seems doubtful.
But I’d like to be proven wrong
@@thatpointinlife there’s a shortage of surströmming right now. It’s a terrible tragedy.
Happy Thanksgiving Joseph. Thanks for all you do. Your portfolio is really awesome, even if it does lack some Broadcom and Tesla.
I have both, very impressive companies
Intuit . Love it how blind investors always find excuses why stockbased compensation aren’t that bad . Every year you get diluted but who cares . Instead of getting a dividend you loose everytime and need to hope that the companie still grows to outpace that shit . What happens when grows Stopps is shown at PayPal . On the other hand their are companies like railroads who don’t even grow much but because of moat , high margin and dividend + stock buyback , you earn a lot even with no grows. Now think what would happen to Intuit if they don’t grow 20%+ every year but 9%. While having 4% stock based compensation and 3% inflation . The only people who earn really money in that case are intuit management and workers .
Please also cover other stocks based on demand. This feels like it’s getting repetitive.
super portfolio!
if you'd consider a health company, which would it be: UNH, ISRG, MTD, TMO, NVO, LLY or other?
i think UNH and TMO are good candidates (i have them in my portfolio) and i'd like to add ISRG, at a lower price...!
I analyzed UNH recently and the only problem I saw is that it's ROCE is not as big as the one I'm looking for. But the valuation and fundamentals look great!
Price matters. P/e 30 is too high to buy
I love Intuit as company but the SBC cuts the cashflow by 40% which is a hard pass for me.
Great content. Which app and equipment do u use to create the videos?
I have been watching for a while now. Have a fe ETF holdings but would really like to DCA into some of these suggestions. He makes very good cases for all the companies that are invested in. However some are regarded as “holds”. Does that mean not to invest in them or wait until the price goes down and value goes up or should I gradually increase my holdings each month?
If a company that he has is a hold, it means that right now its not a good time to invest additional money into at this time, unless you wanna pay a premium. At the time he bought the stocks they were priced much lower but the price has gone up so much that its time to hold those stocks and look for other quality stocks at good value
Thanks for replying back in this. Makes sense.
That’s not necessarily the case, a suggestion of hold can be interpreted in several ways, typically it’s best to interpret it in the manner that is described in the reply ☝️ above. It’s not an ideal time to increase your position. However, in my opinion, a stock is only recommended as a hold of it has growth/return potential. If there isn’t any potential then it would be a sell not a hold. It might not be the ideal time to increase a current position but if your position cost can be averaged down or you don’t currently have a position then hold should be interpreted as a buy. If it’s worth holding then it’s worth having, so if you don’t have any… a hold can be a buy. If your current position cost can only be averaged up given the current price then you might want to see a “strong buy” rating before increasing your position. That’s my 2¢
His theory is that for a company's price to be attractive, it's Free Cash Flow Yield should be 3% or higher. You could take that as a top line reference
Hi Joseph, can you remind me why you sold salesforce?
I think he didn't like the fact that it's compensation payments to management eat up so much of the free cash flow
@@TheCashFlowCompounder Thank you, yes, you are right! I found the video :)
@@andreaisonline No worries! I'm gladdd
Omg, Joseph! I just noticed that you are wearing the exact same Depeche Mode hoody that I am wearing right now. Awesome!! I can’t stop wearing it, as it is so damn comfortable. 😎
@JosephCarlsonAfterHours Joseph, did you mention you calculate return of your portfolio as Money-Weighted return?
I believe if you want to compare your performance against the S&P500, you should compare the Time-weighted return.
This is because you have to compare 'like-with-like', and the published S&P500 returns will not be a fair comparison to your dollar-weighted return. What are your thoughts.
I actually calculate both of them, time weighted and money weighted.
When I do my Story Fund updates, and compare the two lines together, that is time weighted returns.
On the monthly update I share on the patreon, that is also time-weighted. It takes a few more minutes to calculate time weighted but I do so just make sure it's comparing the same thing.
Since I have stopped investing new money in the Story Fund as of March of this year, the difference in the two returns (time weighted vs money weighted) is actually no difference. They only differ on new inflows and outflows of money, so when you never deposit or withdraw, it looks identical.
What do you think about autozone and oreily autoparts?
After using your style of quantitative analysis. Im liking Ulta and airbnb. What do you think
I have done the analysis too and Ulta looks great! Not sure about airbnb though, I don't think its ROCE was that high
Steak is one of the healthiest foods you can eat, nothing unhealthy about it.
Joseph, I'm amateur and have a question regarding CP. In long term perspective, it is underperform SP500 or is quite close to it (if i'm not wrong). Does it make sense to 'play' with CP instead of just buying VOO/SPY? Thank you
Interesting and educational information. Have a good Thanksgiving :)
Joseph do you think now is good time for jumping back on BABA stock.
I have the same question for Joseph.
You can check dataroma to see who sold/bought recently
ESG is used to control companies.... Stop being arrogant
Thanks Joseph. Great content. Talking about diet drugs as a threat to the fast food industry because it suppresses hunger is nonsensical.
When you say we bought into it, are you referring to yourself and your spouse yourself and a team of people? Are you able to clarify that?
@josephcarlsonafterhours thank you for the education videos. Can you please do a comparison video between SPGI vs NDAQ. Thank you.
You pick pretty good stocks.
Thanks
I don't get how so many people are so comfortable buying and/or holding the SPGI's of the world at these levels.
Here is a company that grew revenue at a 7-8% CAGR 2015-2021, with profit margin hovering around 30% and buying back ~2% of its shares each year at very questionable levels.
The share price quadrupled.
Why did it 4x? Well, the earnings multiple nearly tripled from 13-15 to the current 40 ($400, times 317m shares, divided by 30% of FY22 revenue 11.2b).
The multiple won't triple again: it is in fact a lot more likely to halve if anything other than perfection materializes in the medium turn.
So you are basically keeping your fingers crossed that multiples remain in bubble territory, clinging onto hopes of perpetual growth, perpetual expansion of already high margins, perpetual buybacks of shares that trade at lunatic valuations...
Same story for Intuit.
In years when there is no acquisition, revenue grows at 10-12%, and margins were stable at 21-23% prior to FY23, somewhat lower around 16% in FY22-23, plus systematic 1% dilution.
Multiple 10 years ago was 25-30; today it is 50-55 if you normalize by 20-23% earnings.
With 10% growth, 22% profit margin, 30% profit distribution as a dividend and a 10% discount rate, the intrinsic value for a terminal earnings multiple of 20/25/30 is 230/285/335.
How is it possible that these charts don't look like a bubble to so many people?
As for the business model: in European countries, you don't even prepare a tax return yourself - the tax agency (just like the IRS) already knows nearly everything, so instead of having you file a return, they send you a tax report and ask you to confirm whether it is missing anything, which for the vast majority of people isn't the case. So there is no tax prepping middle man bribing the government so that it can continue to suck money out of taxpayers. Even you mention often that investors have a negative view on the company, because they think about it from a customer perspective, a customer that doesn't like the tax filing experience and sees Intuit as what it is: an unnecessary middle man adding no value that would likely be regulated away if the government was in the business of serving you.
So when you put everything together (valuation, fishy business model, dilution, recent debt issuance...) I can't find a single reason to own this thing, other than the fact that the shares seem to appreciate consistently.
@@Amwatson801great to hear opposing views
What do you think about Realty Income (O)? I think it has potential in the future
@Joseph carlson where do we access the write up you mentioned in this video? Is it on discord ?
On the discord in the joes trades channel
Only issue I have with $CP is, they overpaid for their acquisition. Not sure I’d buy at these levels
Impressive original analysis Joseph. Have you considered AXP for your passive portfolio? I have both AXP and MC
but like AXP at its current stock price better. I also like CNI over CP right now ( I hold CP and UNP but recently initiated a position in CNI). The AAPL/MSFT/GOOG antitrust regulatory issues are tricky as you note, so it's probably best to invest in all three, which has been my approach (I like GOOG best, and am overweight in it relative to MSFT and AAPL).
Why would Bing paying apple be ok but Google paying apple is not ok?
Bing has 3% market share and google has 91%
@@JosephCarlsonAfterHours ok but is the same thing for real like what just give it someone else because it's nit fair for the other person sounds dumb to me still
@@JonJon-kx6xl I don't agree with it either, I think Google should win. But that's the DOJ's fault.
Happy Thanksgiving everyone!
38:00 what not CNI? Vs CP?
I get your strategy up to 1:44in this video, but you used to go for dividend yields and amounts. Now you invest for capital gains and low yield. I recon with your current wealth, you should be doing this strategy. But I am still down in then 20K 😢total invested and practicing your earlier strategies.
he has moved away from dividend focused strategy.
@@Allen-L-Canada yeah, I know. But I am trying to use his current ‘teachings’ in my portfolio to invest in high yield, high risk positions. Working so far.
Joseph love your content.
In india 🇮🇳 UPI mode.of payments appears to be beating visa.and mastercard.
It also appears to have a growing global reach and probably a visible threat to visa and mastercard.
Your thoughts.....UPI is totally FREE OF CHARGES TOO
Free of charge.... well that sounds like a profitable business.
@@hyperhippyhippohopper Yes, UPI (Unified Payments Interface) transactions are free of charge for individuals making personal transactions. This means you can send and receive money, make payments to merchants, and pay bills without incurring any fees. However, there may be charges for transactions made using prepaid payment instruments (PPIs), such as mobile wallets, above a certain amount. These charges are typically borne by the merchant, not the customer.
The reason why UPI transactions are free is because the National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI), which operates the UPI platform, has subsidized the cost of transactions. This has been done to encourage adoption of UPI and to make digital payments more accessible to everyone.
Love the Depeche Mode shirt.
Portefolio reviews! One of the favourite videos! 👌
I'm in the UK and have a stake in Chipotle Mexican Grill through my Vanguard S&P 500 etf. I'd never heard of it before, don't know it's menu, never tasted any Mexican food, because we don't really have it here in the UK, but I like the sound of it's name and am proud to own a share of it.
Congratulations for all your knowledge! And success!
This man is a legend
What do you think about $FSLR ?
The Chipotle restaurants in my area, (Northern Virginia) stopped offering steak as a selection around 2 yrs ago and that's when I stopped going, but a few months ago I went back in and noticed that the Steak was back on the menu. so now I'm wondering why the changes?
Enjoyed the informative episode. I own quite a few of the stocks mentioned. Have been looking at CP quite intensely for last month or so. MA is my largest holding with V to a lesser degree. UNH, MSFT, AAPL and some INTU. Then Pharma stocks and the rest of other types of dividend bearing stocks as well as increasing VICI as of late as I agree.
Well presented vid. I may not always agree, but opinions are greatly appreciated. Considering joining Patreon for your Qualtrim as looks to be a good bundle of info to explore with.
Again, thanks
Hi Joseph, Is it true that almost all youtubers and other influencers portfolio gets capped at 1 million max in profit. Please share your opinnion?
Joseph, when will you do a single course for investors to learn the fundamentals and technical analysis from zero to hundred?
i am subscribed what is your average return over the past 20 years or less?
2 years ago you sold MA and V and you had a very negative bearish view on them, interesting
Hello Joseph!
Thank you for your videos. They have challenged my assumptions and understanding.
Even with all the knowledge in the world, sometimes you win, and sometimes you learn. Mostly because the world is random and 100% probability can fail. Lessons learned.
Got to comments for you. One, yes, it is doable to beat the S&P 500, but most people don't have the financial structure or cash position to take the level of risk, IMO. There is nothing wrong with market returns as you, as well as Buffett, have stated.
Second, I looked in the CP balance sheet to see if there is an opportunity there. Definitely, the price is under the 200-day moving average, and the dividend as well as forward earnings look promising. My concern is and sort of a rule of thumb for me, not to invest in companies with high debt to free cash. Free cash was around 500M, and debt was over 2B. Highly leverage even if they execute perfectly. That's my take. Thanks for the videos and commentary.
PS. I am a career systems engineer, so we hate software engineers. 😂😅😊
Chipotle is gross. It's fast food, not good food. It all tastes the same. And, the ingredients aren't even warm (or cold, depending on the situation). Not to mention, Chipotle is not cheap. I don't understand why people eat there.
Nice Depeche Mode shirt instead of always Nike 🫡
I have cashed out my retirement accounts and put them in an LLC Brokerage account. Can’t wait until 59 1/2 to start living life
Awesome video. I like your longer videos so I can just settle back and listen. Great analysis on your holdings.
Was curious so I crunched some numbers assuming a Starting principal of $500k with monthly investment of $3000.
Using the average annual return of the S&P 500 of 10%.
Portfolio value in 20 years is around $5.5 million
Assuming monthly investment of $2000
Portfolio value in 20 years $4.8 million
At a savings rate of $1000 per month the portfolio grows to $4 million in 20 years
Congratulations you have done the HEAVY LIFTING EARLY. Compounding will do the rest
Stay Hungry
The sp500 is trading at 25x earnings, his holdings trade at >30x earnings, rates are high and the only reason gdp doesn’t contract is perpetual debt issuance. Good look getting that 10% in this environment. I think you can consider yourself fortunate if the sp500 is higher than it is today 10 years down the road.
Hey Joseph, I don't know if you'll get to read this... I've been following you since 2019 and I wonder if you know what your returns would be on your passive income portfolio if you never sold out on any company - if instead you just stopped adding money and let the % of said company get diluted away, and reinvested their dividend into other companies. Have you ever done that analysis? I'm curious if this "buy and hold" method would have outperformed.
VICI is devaluing their investors. Shares outstanding skyrocketed and went up something like over 50%. Why might they be doing this? 🤔
M1 Finance’s interface looks so nice compared to Vanguard’s UI….makes me jealous, but I don’t want to deal with transferring all my accounts 😢
I have never met someone who has had mexican food including me but hey i live in England no mexicans here. i dont like chipotle stock simply because i see better expansion in starbucks china
Pamper your tastebuds authentic Mexican cuisine that uses “mole” is an indescribable sensory over load
Great job - Keep it up buddy 👍
Hey Joseph, your videos are great and are thoughtful. But I think you need to do more research on Bitcoin. From this video, it seems like you fully don't understand the asset and the value add. Bitcoin is like digital gold and serves as a store of value. You can instantly transfer money trust less for a fraction of current costs. Cuba uses because of the hyper inflation if the Cuban peso. El Salvador made it legal tender. Allowing the under bank to participate in the economy and for a fraction of the cost. Also, it helps the under bank by allowing them to receive money from relatives aboard via the lighting network. I can go on but since you have a big following you shouldn't discredit Bitcoin without fully understanding. With that said keep up the good work.
You’re very very biased with your investments-
I’m not saying they’re bad. Not at all.
But when going over potential risks-
You just keep going over why there’s no risks… that’s not good haha
my thoughts exactly, a bit of confirmation bias.
Awesome video thank you for sharing
Meat will become more expensive and stats I’ve seen say people will eat less cheap meat and it will become a premium food. It’s an environment killer producing gases (directly from the cow) that will have to be reduced it increased
Great content Joseph. Happy thanksgiving!
Great video as usual Joseph! Thanks !
Why did you invest in cp stock if their dividend doesnt grow consistently year after year
I think he's in it for the growth potential instead of the dividend
Sayin that chipotle has one of the best food in the world is a strong statement 😅 I tried it once and I will never eat there anymore. Being Italian I liked much more Texas Roadhouse or other quick restaurants like Cava and Chick fil-a. I liked also Taco John more than Chipotle. Chipotle to me is one of the worst fast foods (just my honest opinion).
I’m wondering if people who went through the '08 financial crisis had a tougher time than I am having today, my plan was to work, save money and retire at 55, but high price for everything is an obstacle *Sigh, I now look towards the stock market to fuel my goal.
2008 was terrible for certain industries, dial debt back and you will be fine
A coworker amid covid-19 outbreak proposed the idea of diversification to me, for positive results to offset negative performance, and then I followed up using an advisor in order to avoid any fiasco. Till date, I can attest to the success of this approach, seeing my investment grow into nearly 7 figure from an initial $250k ... maybe you should do the same.
impressive gains! mind sharing info on your adviser please? with inflation on the high, would love to increase my cash reserve and afford my desire without hassle
I have met people who don't like Mexican food.