@@robotron1236 Just imagine, if his illnesses could've been cured, and he got a better life given to him, where the FOSS world might be today if he was still with us! Dude is a straight LEGEND!
@@ariamoradi9670 ShrineOS is a fork that supports networking :) but I've must ask themselves, if you're truly running the most Godly OS ever, why would you want to introduce the devil into your system? ^-^
Imagine if market share was a deciding factor in choosing a product; everyone would still be driving whatever crap GM made and Toyota would have never left Japan.
I had Linux Mint on a separate SSD for the last 2 years. I recently noticed that I rarely boot into Windows any more. ...It just ease's my mind using Linux.
@aa-hj2fd That was me 25+ years ago. I'm still using Linux, don't even regret it. These days it's much easier to buy machines without the MSFT tax. The recent growth is crazy. I can't even imagine how things will be in a couple more years.
Android's kernel isn't a fork of Linux, it is a downstream version of linux. This is very different from Darwin (the kernel of OSX), which is a (partial) fork of FreeBSD and other BSD versions. Android's kernel can be best compared to Ubuntu's kernel, Redhat's kernel, etc. Those are also "downstream" versions of the vanilla Linux kernel. This means that they continue to incorporate new changes to Linux, but also add certain patches on top of it. In the past, Android did add relatively a lot of code on top, but Android has been active to contribute back to the vanilla kernel, since doing so reduces their maintenance burden and improves the quality of the codebase for everyone. Right now the latest Android kernel only has ~45k lines changed from where it branched from the upstream vanilla Linux version. Checking the same statistic for the Ubuntu kernel gives ~646k lines changed from where it branched. (Although this is somewhat inflated because of the way Ubuntu does backports.) Since the linux kernel has more than 25 million lines of code, these changes are - for both Android and Ubuntu - merely a small part of the entire kernel. The same is true about Chrome OS as well by the way, it uses its own downstream version of the Linux kernel. Almost nobody runs a vanilla Linux kernel, because all vendors create a downstream version. So if that is your argument, then Linux would have a market share of ~0%.
Hey, your neighbor is making $200 per hour, you, $5. Then you get raise to 10, 100% increase, but it is still 200/10=20 times less than your neighbor per hour of work. Statistics may be misleading in the big picture. As Kent said, Linux on desktop is marginal to say the least. It's primed for servers, as far as I can tell, although I have 3 machines running desktop Linux. Server Linux makes money for real people with real families. Desktop real world implications for real, working life?
IMO the biggest reason why people don't see linux as an alternative is because of perception. People think that it is some advanced operating system for people who are good with computers. Also windows and Mac comes pre installed on pcs and laptops that you can buy. Other than gaming, there is nothing that linux can't beat windows in. Linux is a perfectly viable option for normal day to day computing like browsing the web, some office stuff, coding etc. My 55 year old dad has been using Mint for roughly 2-3 years now on a 10 year old lenovo laptop and he is doing alright. He can open multiple browser tabs, file manager, office suit and some pdfs all at once without any lag. Imagine doing that on windows.
Video editing, photo editing, sound engineering, gaming, I mean there are many major examples where it is not as good as windows or Mac depending on software suite you rely on. And no, none of those open source options come close to the proprietary software for enterprise cases. They can passively be used for simpler tasks but truly high level use windows or Mac for the tasks above. Also using anecdotal examples means literally nothing, my aunt who is around the same age has no issues with windows.... Heck my own mom uses windows just fine, you act like doing something in windows is impossible, I can imagine people doing things in windows....they do it all the time. Using desktop Linux is simply a preference which is fine, but acting like it's "better" based off shallow examples doesn't prove anything
@@bigbay1159 I said normal daily use. All of the things you mentioned are specific tasks which require specific software so obviously windows or Mac is a far superior choice there. And regarding my anecdote, I was talking about my 10 year old laptop. And yes, you cannot do all of that with windows on a 10 year old hardware.
@@PranjayVarshney That is fair, the daily driving on regular modern systems is going to be a choice, as again having multiple windows systems on desktop or laptop it's not as if windows can't do basic tasks well, it does so incredibly just like my Linux ditros. But for aged hardware yes Linux CAN POTENTIALLY work better there are still some chipsets specifically wifi that will not work fully even with latest kernel. Which makes certain hardware just nearly impossible to use. But in cases where the kernel can see hardware fine yes it can restore some performance. This is something learn Linux tv has discussed as hating users saying Linux works on all old hardware and bringing it "back to life" that isn't a universal truth, and there will be certain hardware it will not interface properly. But if it does than yeah I can see a XFCE distro doing well on it
Just as a preface, I work in IT. I'm a Windows Jr. sysadmin. I tried Linux Mint literally yesterday. It worked once, but then after reboot, the network manager would crash when trying to connect to WiFi. I searched online for 30 minutes and couldn't find a way to relaunch the network manager either by the GUI or terminal. Gave up. It's a joke. A literal joke. If you have the free time to make this work, more power to you.
Their are 3 possible results when using linux either: A) It works and they do bare bone minimal stuff and are happy. B) It fails and they give up after attempts of troubleshoot and hours upon hours of frustration and come back to windows, ios or andoid. C) It works and the discovery phase of learning and troubleshooting leaves them a conclusion that os is simply not ready for their use case and return back to windows, ios or android untill it is. Linux also has a pre-install market like mac and windows though, their profit margins aren't as high as mac or windows but they are there, just supply and demand doesn't require them to be upfront when smartphones are the leading sells and dominates the image of computers. Windows has more features then linux when it comes to technologies support and software support on their end of the software market and hardware market, linux may get the bare minimun to work but you are still out of missing features that makes those software/hardware desirable in the first place. Having to waste alot of money on expensive tech only to not run at peak performance or at all seems like waste of potential and bad financial decision. Bare bone minimal stuff like browsing is already done by the smartphone and are ahead of it, thanks to their power, portability, convenience, ease of use, accessible pricing and accesibility features that no desktop or laptop can ever compete, so it makes no sense to spend alot of money on a much more powerful machine to get a level expierence that of the smartphone. Currently on todays age we have access to voice record to word, picture to word, ai generated text and google docs they may not be as powerfull as a suite of office but they fulfill the gap much better then the suites , it makes sense when you are in college but most of the foss office suites aren't their yet with the lack of powerpoint and excel support and even though their is effort done to make excel viable they have done nothing much on the powerpoint devolpment side of things. Having multiple browser tabs, file managers and office suit and pdf doesn't sound like a feature of use but more of a flex, how does it benefit the user of having mutiple tabs open if the software they want to use isn't even accessible in the first place. PDF's are light unless we talking about cad documentation levels of detail where layers upon layers of vectors could require such a demand, which no longer is a daily use but a specific use case. You emphasize @bigbay1159 about daily use but mentioned coding, coding isn't a daily use case its a specific use case in one of your example, i get that specifics use case is constantly ignored but day by day on each passing year video editing, photo editing and sound manipulation has been becoming more mainstream, with many children using tik tok, youtube shorts social media those tools becomes a part of their daily use, word is mostly done on the phone with alot of ease of access and powerfull tools like ai it becomes less of reason for the youngs to use it. As cellphones become stronger there would need to be a reason why a desktop/laptop is even needed such things as basic bare minimal tasks won't cut it anymore as time passes by, because a phone does alot of things at a fraction of the price and is very power efficient, linux distros does excel on reviving old tech but at that point you are putting all your effort into being the last choice, not the first choice. If linux ever wants to be the first choice it needs to be ahead of the curve not behind, this kind of mindset is a problem i have with alot users mentioning 50+ years as a example user but ignoring the potential newer younger generational users, if those users are struggling then it fails to capture the next generation and beyond and will always play catch up.
I strongly disagree with the "smartphone and tablets" part. There is NO way people are going to use fucking tablets in offices/schools Lmao. Edit: extending my opinion a little bit If you add a mouse and a keyboard to a tablet you basiclly convert it into a weak powered laptop/portable computer. If you don't, you still have a device that is suitable for quite a lot of things EXCEPT doing what PCs are designed for: Productivity. I can't imagine doing all of my work on excel on small, touch screen. Oh, and also there already were attempts on doing things like this type of hybrid computing like Windows 8, yet somehow it didn't do very good. I wonder why...
Alot of younger generational users use smartphone from a young age alot of those users are more accostomed to touchscreen interface, there are tools like ai generated text, voice record to text, photo to text and are powerfull enough to be paste on google docs, there would be no point for a young user to use a mouse if they never owned a pc in the first place. People take pics on whiteboards convert it to text and get things done at a faster pace, they have access to ai assistant to help them aid on homework and tests, you can write a math problem by hand take a picture and convert to text and paste it on excel or ai to solve your problems. You can record videos and do basic cuts on the phone and upload them, record audio do cuts, take pictures and do basic manipulation or use photopea and edit it there, you can even run games at a reasonable graphics level with no issues. The mention of windows 8 was more of a awareness that mobile was the future, we also have to remember they had released the windows phone at that time and wanted to compete the mobile market but ultimatly failed, this was 12 years ago though and currently now the rage is ai tools. Desktop still has a place in the market but is more of a focus on purpose use case a.k.a niche stuff, stuff like rendering are still needed for desktop as the timeframe and power demand cannot be fufilled on any mobile device on a reasonable level, cad documentions are so cpu heavy with those vectors renderings, and intense multilayer audio recording is still important function for those who want to edit in detail their audio, we also have intense gaming market for those who are interest in the hobby and advance motion capture, the thing is basic stuff like office and email/browsing is done by the phone more easily.
my 15 y/o brother is literally forced to use an iPad in school for everyday notetaking and homework and everything💀 they don't even use physical calculators anymore, it's all on the iPad as well
If LINUX reaches a 7-8% market share, at that point Adobe, Autodesk, and other major software companies will have no choice but to develop their programs for the penguin; and perhaps major hardware manufacturers (Acer, Toshiba, HP...) will start offering machines with Linux pre-installed. The biggest limitation for the spread of Linux on desktops is the fact that manufacturers offer machines with Windows pre-installed: If you were a typical consumer and were offered to buy, for example, a machine for $1000 with Windows and the exact same machine for $850 with Linux, knowing that you would still have all the software you need, which one would you choose?
They would choose the 1000 dollar windows machine because it's more familiar. In a third world country they would buy the 850 dollar machine take it to a repair shop to install windows on it for 20 dollars
Kent thinks the future of computing is tablets when the tablet market is shrinking. Talking about a 17% decline year over year for tablets. He talks about Mac, but Mac has also reported a 34% decline year over year from 2023. Technically Linux already beat Mac but on Steam. Mac did grow 1% in Q1 and now 2% in Q2, but that's from the massive 34% decline in 2023. Also, what Mac software? You think people just run Photoshop and Premier all day? After Mac went ARM you see 50% of the software ported to ARM, with the other 50% either emulated or not working at all. Statcounter isn't 100% accurate, but it does represent internet usage. The main driving force of Linux's adoption is gaming. It's the reason why Bill Gates was shown in Doom, because at some point more people installed Doom than Windows 95. It's the reason why Mac has been in decline, because ARM minus 32-bit compatibility means gaming on Mac sucks. Something like 1/3 of the world plays video games, which is a lot more than people who use Photoshop and Adobe Premier. You still have Davinci Resolve on Linux, which works just fine as long as you don't need AAC. You have Reaper on Linux as well. The one thing you don't have is a good alternative to Photoshop. That and Fusion 360, because I can't use anything else but Fusion 360. Photoshop and Fusion 360 do work through Wine, but not well. If Ubuntu screws up then we have dozens of alternatives. Some would say Ubuntu has already screwed up, but whatever. This is not like Windows or MacOS where if they screw up you may leave that ecosystem entirely. If Ubuntu screws up you can go Debian or OpenSuse, or any number of distros that exist. Linux Mint already has a Debian version, just for this reason because you never know if Ubuntu will screw up. At 4%, GNU/Linux is about 1/4 the market share of MacOS. Let that sink in.
also more addition to this point, linux's growth is exponential so should be seeing more growth, and i predect it will double in 4 years tho that is a wild guess
@@forest6008 recently Linux was reported to have climbed to 4.45%, according to statecounter. MacOS is still bellow 15% market share. Linux may eventually catch up to MacOS in market share.
Idk about Linux being behind at all. I game on linux and because of Steam/Proton, it's plug and play. Some of the kernel level anti-cheats don't support Linux, but that's the fault of the devs for the anti-cheat software, not Linux. The popularity of these handhelds is probably making that different though.
it's not the dev's fault not for supporting linux. They will if it make sense for them. So get linux to make sense for them and they will. so the ball is all in the linux worlds hands so to speak, software/game companies goes where the money it!
@@KentsTechWorld You are right, it is actually the users fault that they still accepting things like Kernel Level Anti-Cheat, accepting Ads in their OS or the security and usability mess that Windows 11 is.
Just because Toyota Corolla works for most average users it doesn't mean its the technological highpoint in the car industry either. This is the same for Windows. Windows is still actually at Vista level of tech, so that everything we type on Windows 10/11 has by large been done 20 years ago (Vista bootloader, NTFS filesystem and butload of kernel arch too as it's modular since from Vista). It can't even support high CPU core counts for programs since in 2006 they didn't think we would have more than 64 threads on a desktop CPU. Yeah the UI, DirectX and even kernel probably has had improvement there and there, but overall the tech is ancient on Windows under the hood. Unlike where Linux actually gets developed from every point. Hell Windows UI stuff has actually taken a lot of stuff from Linux since Win10 was released, so in hindsight it's actually Windows has been behind a lot. It's just that the vendor support isn't there...
@@Kankipappa this, 1000%. I’m so tired of hearing how “behind” Linux is when everything on Linux not only looks more modern, but is more modern. It’s not Linux’s fault that people write software for windows, but the FOSS world sure knows how to make it work with WINE/Proton. I’m studying cybersecurity, so I have windows 11 VMs and stuff to test out malware and it’s just insane how clunky it is and how old it looks. Whenever I look at my KDE, or even a GNOME desktop, it just feels and looks like it belongs in 2024.
Iam sure Bobs and Sues are gonna use tablets and phones to rawdog their documents and their spreadsheets and their powerpoint presentations. Your prediction is 100% correct and valid
With Win11 shenanigans more and more people are switching to Linux, me including. I still run Win11 from a usb, on a laptop that came with Win11 but I converted it to Linux. And when Win10 loses support, my main PC will also become Linux, running Win11 only from that little smart fast usb. I won't need more. The stats are just approximate, many people having dual systems and switching between OSs on regular basis. The best ad for Linux is Win11 itself. Whatever the figures of market share, the truth is people are waking up to re-evaluating their privacy and security. The more Linux users, the more the developers will start tailoring their software for Linux users, too. It will have a positive feedback loop effect. It is about the time to have some viable alternative. And I am impatiently waiting for the Ladybird browser, what it will have to offer when complete.
Add creatives to the desktop user bunch-people who need to edit photos and videos professionally and design graphics and UIs. I couldn't imagine doing this without a powerful desktop computer with big screen and precision of mouse and keyboard.
Well Kent, if in one year you go from 3.1 to 4.4, in 10 years you will reach much more than 10% (because geometric increase). You don't know about numbers.
sure i don't ;) i am sorry for making a fast on the spot statement, and not sit down and stop the video to do the math right lol. The point is still the same, There will be no desktop computing in 10 years as we know it, it will be tablets and phones. so if it would be 10% or 20% is not important lol If you want to counter point my argument, do it in a way that make sense and that is about the video and not bad math lol
@@KentsTechWorld i'm a bit confused by this point. like, sure, mobile devices have grown a lot, and they will continue to do so, but the data you showed implied that it has somwhat stabilised. has the market share for those devices not reached more less the use cases it can reliably replace, in your opinion?
The largest share of the market is not made of people tha need a computer. They want a media device. This is the shifting market share. They don't have HPC games running, or big data sets. They don't have media tools. They don't need fast and dependable input. The want a hassle free media device, and Win/Mac/Lin isn't that. You can discout thoae people because they would use a 1998 Nokia if it did YT/Netflix. These people infiltrated the stats by purchase, not intention or need. Keep this in mind when gathering/diseminating stats.
They basically tend to misrepresent it by showing only desktop market share in which case it is over 4%. For overall market share across any type of device, it is only 1%.
because desktop market share is what their users care about, being desktop users. I suspect it's only "1% across any type of device" when you arbitrarily exclude all non-consumer hardware given that linux has an 80% market share across public facing servers. Which means you're doing the same thing just with a different category. This stat is also reliant on excluding android as "linux" which some people would also disagree with. Windows is at like 25% across "all systems", if people are saying "linux is at 4% whilst microsoft is down to 25%" then there's an issue. People who care about the desktop linux experience primarily care about desktop market share because that is what is going to affect support for products they want to use.
There are misconceptions everywhere. Tablets and handsets are more powerful at the mid-range than they use to be, so people on iOS and Android can do _much_ of the same workflow as in Windows. People want to discount Android for market data, but Android compatibility is a couple steps away from _Linux_ compatibility. (That, and it can be emulated with Genymotion.) And Microsoft is shooting themselves at both of their feet. Be honest with yourself here; If to someone who dislikes being advertised-to a whole bunch is presented with Windows as the ad-riddled dystopia Microsoft is slowly making it become, and Linux is presented as the quiet park filled with natural diversity which leaves such people to themselves, what option would they pick for general compute? I'm using Linux, habitually. And if something doesn't work the way I want it to, I seek alternatives. Windows hasn't been working the way I want it to, so I use the alternative for my systems. If software publishers doesn't want to respect this, they can join my pile or software never worth considering, and I'd hope people that give a damn about their mental clarity would follow suit.
The average soccer mom doesn't game, she barely does productivity stuff on her work computer, and is going to mostly either be streaming something, online shopping, or surfing social media. Phones and tablets may not replace the desktop for gaming and productivity work, but most people don't need it for those things. A large portion of the market do little of either. Those are the people who are now freed from the immobile desktop.
Steam Deck is not "desktop". I'm also not sure why it would only be old desktops, a few years ago I fully switched to Linux (had windows for home usage before), definitely not using old hardware.
Still, 1% of market share represents millions of computers. Linux historically never represented such fluctuations, so your comparison with Windows may be wrong. In the end we just don't know, Linux on desktop hasn't clicked yet. It might never do. But opportunities are there
what you say could be said for windows, macOS and FreeBSD, beside the "it has not clicked yet". Again we can't assume or guess, we have to deal with what we have of numbers, no matter how not so true or what not they may be. And i am using the same stats and site linux people are. so if this is not right, their videos are not right either
1% spread along how many distros? and within each distro how many desktops? They need to focus on just a few of the best distros and get software support for them. People use applications and not the OS which they could care less apart - if you boot a PS4 as long as the OS does what it should people only care about the game they are playing.
I really don't care about your argument. Everything is in the cloud today. Windows is not a cash cow for MS anymore. I thought this argument was something from ten years ago. I don't know what your purpose is. We don't know what the future of operating systems will be in the future. You are quite sure. I'm not. Glad you are so sure. Shareholders are looking at more important issues.
Cloud? You mean servers owned by large American corporations to track and profile you? Any idea how cheap storage is these days? No thanks - I'll keep my files and programs on my own machines, which both run Linux Mint.
Once there is a Linux version that the user doesn't have to use the terminal, then it will do much better. 99% of users of Windows users don't want to use terminal commands. GUI for everything is needed to make it easy for the masses. I don't need it, but most do.
Agree. As soon i got my s24 Ultra i thought about buying a docking station to plug my phone to my monitor and use Dex. The only thing that's really stopping me is gaming but i can use Parsec to play my games or use Nvidia GeForce Now
First argument is already wrong. I hear that in ~5 yars desktops will be replaced by phones and tablets since 2010. What actually happened - most people got smartphones, some got tablets, some people moved to laptops, but most desktop users stayed on desktop. Many of them also have laptops and tablets in addition to desktop, but not to replaces it. PC is not dying, market just mature and will not grow fast. Only space able to grow fast is enthusiast luxuries, like watercooling, top-tier GPUs, etc. and even they will be capped by inflation. Also linear extrapolation is useless, we basically don't have any information to extrapolate. Only thing we can say for sure, combination on MS mishandling of customer relations with win11 and valve actions with steamOS and steamDeck made linux meaningfully more attractive platform. MS might get their shit together and make real improvements to windows, linux growth might be blocked by assumptions made by most mainstream distributions that they are for tablets and lot of other staff, including factors like adobe attempt at losing market dominance, which also might improve linux chances.
Yeah, phones are already the dominant (by some magnitude) personal computing device. Desktops and laptops are useful and not dying, but they're a basically flat market. Moves in OS share are basically random noise. As a 30 year Linux desktop user, I would love to see Linux doing better but I know all the problems holding it back and they're deeply systemic and almost completely unrelated to anything a Linux developer could reasonably be expected to address. So it's a moot point.
@@djsmeguk I'm moving to linux right now. Which actual problem is systemic for it? Only severe issue I see is an extraordinaire lack of UI specialist, so UI either is as bad as alternatives (macos, windows) or even slightly worse, but it's not something that impossible to fix. Other one is a complicated architecture of graphical servers and their interaction with DEs, but it seems average uses just don't care, so far as their app able to launch and windows can be moved around.
anyone that can use a desktop or laptop wants to use it but phones are portable and cheaper. before i had a smart phone i would just spend way less time online because i could only use the internet at my desk .and if you live in a place like dr Congo this is your only option
So, for Linux to take more market share, programs like WINE and Proton (but not just for games) need to fill in the gaps by just translating Windows/Mac OS API calls to Linux API calls so Linux can have all the programs? I'm not sure what you mean by creature comforts that the other OSes have, I only use Linux. Your "best case scenario" of each OS having 1/3 of the market share would be my dream, I want competition within the desktop market shares, the crap Microsoft was doing when I left was just so annoying, ads in the OS, forced telemetry, constant lying about what the computer is doing (you don't need to take 30 seconds set my account after the OS is installed, there should be nothing to set up), and having to accept their EULA-roofieing and rapist mentality. It would be a bad thing if there was only Linux and everyone had to use it as there would be nothing to encourage innovation.
I believe that from 2025 onwards we'll be able to see better usage behavior. Windows 11 was a failure (recently it was only on 30% of computers) and next year Windows 10 support ends and many people don't have the option of migrating to 11 due to hardware limitations (like me, who has a fourth generation intel). Most people don't have any limitations when it comes to using Linux, which is currently a summary of using Adobe. It's a question of knowing how to boot from a USB stick and how to handle partitions.
Windows has been copying Linux for a while now: the interface, tiling manager, toolbar, package manager and terminal. And the main point is that Windows is technically inferior in advanced features for advanced users, programmers and system administrators etc. Windows also consumes the machine's resources and spies on users.
I mean people usually have more than 1 device. I have a phone, laptop, desktop, tablet, smartwatch. I use them for different things and I run a different operating systems too. My wife has a bunch of different devices and I have some non-techy friends who even have both android and iPhones because they have too much money lol so in my opinion I don’t see tablets and phones taking over but adding too laptops and desktops
not really, gnome is not being used on tablet's or phones, or it's almost not being used. So it have not helped at all. You could make a debate that KDE have done something as it's on the steam deck.
@@KentsTechWorld The majority of Steam Deck users never interacts with the KDE desktop. Most people only use the gamescope session with big picture mode because the only thing you would need to switch to the desktop for are flatpaks. But there are decky plugins to manage them from within that game console like session. Also KDE is not designed for touch input at all. You could argue that you can configure it to somewhat work and there is Plasma mobile as side project. But these are big implications. At the same time most mobile Linux distributions use Phosh which is based on GNOME efforts. You can pretty much run all major GNOME applications via touch input on a tablet or phone. Most GNOME circle apps work properly. There are efforts to run the actual GNOME shell on phone form factor and from my experience the thing holding it back most is the touchscreen keyboard which isn't as good as squeekboard yet. But besides that it's already possible to run GNOME on a tablet without major issues. You can even have more usability than with Android or iPadOS because you are not limited to some locked-down store front. It's definitely more future-proof than any Windows tablets I've seen. So for modern era were most people drop desktop computers, you can still run Linux with such efforts on your phone or tablet, keeping the full range of possibilities you would have on a desktop computer. Also no matter the form factor, you can run the same interface across all your devices, making it extremely intuitive to use, once familiar. I simply don't need to learn two or three different operating systems with their own tweaks and quirks - just one.
The interesting thing I see is that every year Windows moves closer to a desktop/tablet hybrid. With all of the 2 in 1's, it's their main reason for moving the start menu to the middle for touch screens. Power desktop users hate the direction Windows is going, meanwhile people who are more mobile computing don't notice. Linux really needs to get going on a tablet os.
linux doesn't "really need to get going on a tablet OS", you said it youself that power desktop users hate the direction windows is going, these people are the target
"Will Linux ever beat macOS?" Nooooo. April fools day, who knows 🙂. My hope since "decades" is "lower than 1%". No need for this huge amount of "where do I have to click?" people, like on Windows. Makes it hard to find anything with a search engine. The results are always polluted with questions and answers like "does not work, reinstall Linux".
I dunno with the way apple is going its a strong possibility., apple outside of the iphone/ipad has been really struggling for a while and the move to apple silicon has not panned out as well as they hoped due to lack of compatibility with games.
the linux growth curve is a very slow exponential curve, and windows has steadily been losing market share and macos has not been taking all of it so i dont see why ur predicing 17 years for it, you are not looking at the data in a very through way
i do. Linux don't move, desktops(win, mac's) are falling as a rock. Handhelds are taking over. What that means is when 99% of the world use handhelds, linux would still be the smallest % of the rest that still use desktops. So let's say at that point only 10% of user use dekstops, well then linux would more than likely only have 5% of that, macOS 25% and windows 70%. that would make the linux consumer OS base under 1% if you combine all the markets!! Think about the market share as a stock. Linux is stable but not really moving, windows is at the moment a really bad investment, macOS is okay but could go both ways. So if you invest in linux you will get no return worth while, but you will not lose much either. if you invest in Windows, you are gambling that it may turn around, but you more than likely are losing. If you invest in macOS there is a high change of making money or keeping the once you have. If you want a somewhat predictable return you invest in handhelds! I am the one being the most fair to all OS's here. the fact is that you don't like what you see, so you trying to make it seam less "bad". 'The fact is that no one really care about Linux as a desktop.
@@KentsTechWorld sure but mobile growth has slowed down significantly, and ipads arent doing to great either so i really dont know about that, and for companies, linux is basically the perfect sollution especially something like nixos
And how is your market share measured. I use Linux, an Android phone and sometimes I use Windows for compatibility. So that makes me part of all three. But to be honest, I love Linux as a geek. If I want to use a program, I run it on the OS it is designed for. And yes I agree with you, take the Linux youtubers with a grain of salt.....(a very small grain :)
Desktops are going to be around for a long time and are not going to disappear any time soon. Too many things that are done on a desktop that are extremely difficult if not impossible to do on a tablet. Laptops will eventually out number desktops, but desktops are still going to be in use for many years to come. As more people become pissed off with Microsoft's BS the number of Linux users will keep rising. Eventually it will reach a point where it will begin to snowball and the rate of people switching to Linux will increase dramatically, it will happen eventually.
what you can do on a PC you can do on a tablet, all it take is the software. people do dev work, media work like editing, office work, gaming, consuming and so on, all from a tablet. Go look up channels that live on tablets only. PC still are better at some of those things, but that is only going to be like that for a little while.. Most people have no idea what tablet's really can do as they only use it as a media machine, but with dex and stage manager etc. it's now a full desktop/laptop replacement
@@KentsTechWorld I'm sure a lot of people feel that way and I can appreciate that, but for me I am not nearly as productive on a tablet as I am on a full sized system. I love my tablet to, great fun to play games on. I just can't get any serious work done on that. As far as PC's fading away, I have been hearing that for at least 20 years. Ever since the first gaming consoles came out people have been saying that and it has not even been close to happening. PC's will be with us for many more years to come.
10-15 years behind, Uh huh. depending on how you might consider it since UNIX and Linux generally does run the infrastructure of the internet, Its far more ahead in that respect, and 2 is also ahead in ways on desktop compared to windows specifically for the true nerds, with CLI use, and aspects of gui too. But one must know how to set up, and either develop or build from source code. That has never been for me easy on Windows, but I'm biased towards POSIX standard, and that's the other advantage.
IDK about the way you divided the "unknown" percent, I think we should have taken the %s we know and "morph" that into 100% and re-calculate what each groups % is then divide the 7.14% by the new %s of each (i.e. Windows gets 72%-ish, Mac gets 14.92%-ish, Linux gets 4.45%-ish, etc) though I doubt people on Mac do very much to protect their privacy, or nearly as much as those on either Window or Linux.
Two things. These kinds of stats are *very* flawed; however, if we take them at face value, Linux's market share is bound to go back down once school has started and people need to move back to Windows.
The noise from month to month is rather irrelevant, especially at this small of percentages and this type of data. So trying to extrapolate anything from this month's growth (or fall) is a fool's errand.
When support for Windows 10 ends people will have the choice to throw away their computers or convert to Linux. For users, it's easy to convert to eg Mint - simple to use and fast
nope they will stick using windows, if not most will go to mac's as that gives them more of the software they want and need, the small rest will go Linux
They will wait until the last minute then upgrade the PC or buy a new one if it's older then 4 year .. it's pretty typical. As TPM 2.0 support was mandatory in all systems sold since July 2018 (with Win 10 pre-installed) it only effects pre-ZEN AMD and pre-Gen 5 Intel (and desktops can add a TPM module). Since most people upgrade a laptop every 3-5 years by the time support ends and they get bugged to upgrade to Windows 11, 7.5 years will have passed meaning most PC will meet the requirements except for some cheap-a**es. Win11 was released Oct 2021 4 years will have passed (by the time Windows free support ends) and as the upgrade cycle is 3-5 years (laptops) what will happen: - is that the user has already bought a new device with Windows 11 pre-installed (again the laptop upgrade cycle is 3 to 5 years), or - they were planning to buy one anyways and will shortly before October 2025, or - they will finally run the update for the free Win 11 upgrade.
@@ericwalker8381 It's a pity though - 250 million computers going to landfill. :( My computer is 10 years old and runs Linux Mint perfectly - and fast.
@@michaelpayne4540 Mostly its pre-Zen (AMD) and pre-gen 5 Intel. Most motherboards 2016 have a TMP connector with desktops, every system 2018 onwards sold with Win 10 pre-stalled has TPM 2.0. Old equipment basically has outdated micro-code, obsolete ports, and are very power inefficient. They act very much like space-heaters (which might be ok for some in winter if they use electric baseboard heating). For example my 2nd gen Sandy Bridge laptop uses more power then my 5580H mini PC, the former has a Passmark benchmark about 1,240 and the latter a score of 22,000 - same electrical power used (not to mention the latter has Gen 2 ports as well, updated CODECs). Updating the OS does not and never will update the hardware - the CODECs are out of date, 42nm fabs does not become 4nm fabs, the support chips and micro-architecture doesn't upgrade nor do the ports. It's just old, obsolete equipment with a different OS. If people want to use Linux or whatever OS there's a point whereby it doesn't make sense to use old, obsolete equipment especially if their electrical bills are going up.
02:40 I don't get how Linux is behind Windows or MacOS on the desktop. Maybe you can explain that because I don't see how this is true, not for the average user and especially not from a developer standpoint. Try to mount a keybased authentificated ssh connection into a directory in your home folder so you can edit remote files with all your local editors and programs. Good luck with that. I do that everyday on every Linux system for over 20 years now. Meanwhile Windows can't even make their UI consistent and instead of fixing it I have to explain people how to revert their right click menus to an actual usable state. I tried Windows 11 for 6 months and for me it is a terrible mess. Not even talking about the constant annoyances with ads, bloatware, virus protection, Microsoft forcing you into using their stuff and cloud and unwanted restarts (that was actually the worst).
It is probably true that the numbers are inflated. However does it really matter? FOSS is not declining in popularity.. It is steadily improving and also it's quality is geting better. CachyOS NixOS SerpentOS VanilaOS All quite modern. There is some things that really needs improvement thou. Like HDR support for monitors. It is in motion to become really good though. Maybe be more positive? Less aggressive? 👾💨 💯🔥 🌱🌱🌱🌱🌱
Btw, the next big thing is the mobile Windows device. Think ROG on a massive scale, with Windows as its operating system. The next generation is going to embrace these devices, and Android and iOS will be for old people.
@@PranjayVarshney It won't be Windows mobile as we remember it. Portable pc's will be the next growth sector in the tech industry. You can already communicate with computers, and people don't really make calls with their phones anymore. But you can play AAA games on pc, so all that needs to happen is for small-factor pc's to get cheaper, and then it will be over for Android and iOS.
@@n-tertainmentx-tended4760 gaming is not the only thing that people do. And I don't know in which world you are living in but people definitely make calls with their phones.
@@PranjayVarshney Kids don't make calls, but regardless, you can make calls with some apps like Whatsapp. My point is, gaming is the biggest reason computers are still relevant, otherwise Windows wouldn't be as relevant.
Linux is only slightly better than Mac, and only because you can run more games. Windows is like that girl you take for granted. You think you can do better...but you can't.
@@PranjayVarshney Nah, try doing proper video editing (I'm a content creator). Da Vinci Resolve is all you have and I don't like it all that much. On Windows I can use free software like Capcut without any issues. And all of the open-source software works just fine as well. So there's no need for Linux - not in my opinion.
@@n-tertainmentx-tended4760 if you read my comment I said normal daily use. Video editing is a specific task for which you need specific tools. Obviously mac or windows is far superior when it comes to video editing.
@@bigbay1159 windows has very specific hardware requirements, doesn't run well on old hardware and eats up a lot of storage for no good reason. That's why I believe that for normal daily tasks like browsing the web, watching some videos, some word processing etc, linux is a much better choice.
Lol I love your perspective, you think a lot like me, but your older and your autistic predictions are more experienced then mine lol, I hope your wrong but lol you're most likely right
BTW the site i use is the same all your Linux youtuber use.
so if you have a problem with it, you should have a problem with their videos also :)
Linux TH-camrs are lying
If the camera is turned off
Making a video on Mac or windows 😂
Lol for the 7 percent of unknown, it's obvious those are the true giga Chads running good ol Temple OS their all goin for the good ending
Those are the epic FreeBSD users.
R.I.P. Terry Davis
@@robotron1236 Just imagine, if his illnesses could've been cured, and he got a better life given to him, where the FOSS world might be today if he was still with us! Dude is a straight LEGEND!
Temple OS doesn't support networking.
@@ariamoradi9670 ShrineOS is a fork that supports networking :) but I've must ask themselves, if you're truly running the most Godly OS ever, why would you want to introduce the devil into your system? ^-^
Imagine if market share was a deciding factor in choosing a product; everyone would still be driving whatever crap GM made and Toyota would have never left Japan.
I am done with Microsoft; I don't care, I will use Linux no matter how hard things get.
I had Linux Mint on a separate SSD for the last 2 years. I recently noticed that I rarely boot into Windows any more. ...It just ease's my mind using Linux.
Linux Mint does everything I need!
@aa-hj2fd That was me 25+ years ago. I'm still using Linux, don't even regret it. These days it's much easier to buy machines without the MSFT tax. The recent growth is crazy. I can't even imagine how things will be in a couple more years.
Android's kernel isn't a fork of Linux, it is a downstream version of linux. This is very different from Darwin (the kernel of OSX), which is a (partial) fork of FreeBSD and other BSD versions.
Android's kernel can be best compared to Ubuntu's kernel, Redhat's kernel, etc. Those are also "downstream" versions of the vanilla Linux kernel. This means that they continue to incorporate new changes to Linux, but also add certain patches on top of it. In the past, Android did add relatively a lot of code on top, but Android has been active to contribute back to the vanilla kernel, since doing so reduces their maintenance burden and improves the quality of the codebase for everyone. Right now the latest Android kernel only has ~45k lines changed from where it branched from the upstream vanilla Linux version. Checking the same statistic for the Ubuntu kernel gives ~646k lines changed from where it branched. (Although this is somewhat inflated because of the way Ubuntu does backports.) Since the linux kernel has more than 25 million lines of code, these changes are - for both Android and Ubuntu - merely a small part of the entire kernel. The same is true about Chrome OS as well by the way, it uses its own downstream version of the Linux kernel. Almost nobody runs a vanilla Linux kernel, because all vendors create a downstream version. So if that is your argument, then Linux would have a market share of ~0%.
In Norway Linux is ahead of Windows 11.
Linux is moving up fast.
A positive view on Linux, it's grown by 100% from when I started using it
lol. so did windows. macOS, FreeBSD. Haiku OS
@@KentsTechWorld 😁
Hey, your neighbor is making $200 per hour, you, $5. Then you get raise to 10, 100% increase, but it is still 200/10=20 times less than your neighbor per hour of work. Statistics may be misleading in the big picture. As Kent said, Linux on desktop is marginal to say the least. It's primed for servers, as far as I can tell, although I have 3 machines running desktop Linux. Server Linux makes money for real people with real families. Desktop real world implications for real, working life?
IMO the biggest reason why people don't see linux as an alternative is because of perception. People think that it is some advanced operating system for people who are good with computers. Also windows and Mac comes pre installed on pcs and laptops that you can buy.
Other than gaming, there is nothing that linux can't beat windows in. Linux is a perfectly viable option for normal day to day computing like browsing the web, some office stuff, coding etc.
My 55 year old dad has been using Mint for roughly 2-3 years now on a 10 year old lenovo laptop and he is doing alright. He can open multiple browser tabs, file manager, office suit and some pdfs all at once without any lag. Imagine doing that on windows.
Video editing, photo editing, sound engineering, gaming, I mean there are many major examples where it is not as good as windows or Mac depending on software suite you rely on. And no, none of those open source options come close to the proprietary software for enterprise cases. They can passively be used for simpler tasks but truly high level use windows or Mac for the tasks above. Also using anecdotal examples means literally nothing, my aunt who is around the same age has no issues with windows.... Heck my own mom uses windows just fine, you act like doing something in windows is impossible, I can imagine people doing things in windows....they do it all the time.
Using desktop Linux is simply a preference which is fine, but acting like it's "better" based off shallow examples doesn't prove anything
@@bigbay1159 I said normal daily use. All of the things you mentioned are specific tasks which require specific software so obviously windows or Mac is a far superior choice there.
And regarding my anecdote, I was talking about my 10 year old laptop. And yes, you cannot do all of that with windows on a 10 year old hardware.
@@PranjayVarshney That is fair, the daily driving on regular modern systems is going to be a choice, as again having multiple windows systems on desktop or laptop it's not as if windows can't do basic tasks well, it does so incredibly just like my Linux ditros. But for aged hardware yes Linux CAN POTENTIALLY work better there are still some chipsets specifically wifi that will not work fully even with latest kernel. Which makes certain hardware just nearly impossible to use. But in cases where the kernel can see hardware fine yes it can restore some performance. This is something learn Linux tv has discussed as hating users saying Linux works on all old hardware and bringing it "back to life" that isn't a universal truth, and there will be certain hardware it will not interface properly. But if it does than yeah I can see a XFCE distro doing well on it
Just as a preface, I work in IT. I'm a Windows Jr. sysadmin.
I tried Linux Mint literally yesterday. It worked once, but then after reboot, the network manager would crash when trying to connect to WiFi. I searched online for 30 minutes and couldn't find a way to relaunch the network manager either by the GUI or terminal. Gave up.
It's a joke. A literal joke. If you have the free time to make this work, more power to you.
Their are 3 possible results when using linux either:
A) It works and they do bare bone minimal stuff and are happy.
B) It fails and they give up after attempts of troubleshoot and hours upon hours of frustration and come back to windows, ios or andoid.
C) It works and the discovery phase of learning and troubleshooting leaves them a conclusion that os is simply not ready for their use case and return back to windows, ios or android untill it is.
Linux also has a pre-install market like mac and windows though, their profit margins aren't as high as mac or windows but they are there, just supply and demand doesn't require them to be upfront when smartphones are the leading sells and dominates the image of computers.
Windows has more features then linux when it comes to technologies support and software support on their end of the software market and hardware market, linux may get the bare minimun to work but you are still out of missing features that makes those software/hardware desirable in the first place. Having to waste alot of money on expensive tech only to not run at peak performance or at all seems like waste of potential and bad financial decision.
Bare bone minimal stuff like browsing is already done by the smartphone and are ahead of it, thanks to their power, portability, convenience, ease of use, accessible pricing and accesibility features that no desktop or laptop can ever compete, so it makes no sense to spend alot of money on a much more powerful machine to get a level expierence that of the smartphone.
Currently on todays age we have access to voice record to word, picture to word, ai generated text and google docs they may not be as powerfull as a suite of office but they fulfill the gap much better then the suites , it makes sense when you are in college but most of the foss office suites aren't their yet with the lack of powerpoint and excel support and even though their is effort done to make excel viable they have done nothing much on the powerpoint devolpment side of things.
Having multiple browser tabs, file managers and office suit and pdf doesn't sound like a feature of use but more of a flex, how does it benefit the user of having mutiple tabs open if the software they want to use isn't even accessible in the first place. PDF's are light unless we talking about cad documentation levels of detail where layers upon layers of vectors could require such a demand, which no longer is a daily use but a specific use case.
You emphasize @bigbay1159 about daily use but mentioned coding, coding isn't a daily use case its a specific use case in one of your example, i get that specifics use case is constantly ignored but day by day on each passing year video editing, photo editing and sound manipulation has been becoming more mainstream, with many children using tik tok, youtube shorts social media those tools becomes a part of their daily use, word is mostly done on the phone with alot of ease of access and powerfull tools like ai it becomes less of reason for the youngs to use it.
As cellphones become stronger there would need to be a reason why a desktop/laptop is even needed such things as basic bare minimal tasks won't cut it anymore as time passes by, because a phone does alot of things at a fraction of the price and is very power efficient, linux distros does excel on reviving old tech but at that point you are putting all your effort into being the last choice, not the first choice.
If linux ever wants to be the first choice it needs to be ahead of the curve not behind, this kind of mindset is a problem i have with alot users mentioning 50+ years as a example user but ignoring the potential newer younger generational users, if those users are struggling then it fails to capture the next generation and beyond and will always play catch up.
I strongly disagree with the "smartphone and tablets" part.
There is NO way people are going to use fucking tablets in offices/schools Lmao.
Edit: extending my opinion a little bit
If you add a mouse and a keyboard to a tablet you basiclly convert it into a weak powered laptop/portable computer. If you don't, you still have a device that is suitable for quite a lot of things EXCEPT doing what PCs are designed for: Productivity.
I can't imagine doing all of my work on excel on small, touch screen. Oh, and also there already were attempts on doing things like this type of hybrid computing like Windows 8, yet somehow it didn't do very good. I wonder why...
Alot of younger generational users use smartphone from a young age alot of those users are more accostomed to touchscreen interface, there are tools like ai generated text, voice record to text, photo to text and are powerfull enough to be paste on google docs, there would be no point for a young user to use a mouse if they never owned a pc in the first place. People take pics on whiteboards convert it to text and get things done at a faster pace, they have access to ai assistant to help them aid on homework and tests, you can write a math problem by hand take a picture and convert to text and paste it on excel or ai to solve your problems.
You can record videos and do basic cuts on the phone and upload them, record audio do cuts, take pictures and do basic manipulation or use photopea and edit it there, you can even run games at a reasonable graphics level with no issues.
The mention of windows 8 was more of a awareness that mobile was the future, we also have to remember they had released the windows phone at that time and wanted to compete the mobile market but ultimatly failed, this was 12 years ago though and currently now the rage is ai tools.
Desktop still has a place in the market but is more of a focus on purpose use case a.k.a niche stuff, stuff like rendering are still needed for desktop as the timeframe and power demand cannot be fufilled on any mobile device on a reasonable level, cad documentions are so cpu heavy with those vectors renderings, and intense multilayer audio recording is still important function for those who want to edit in detail their audio, we also have intense gaming market for those who are interest in the hobby and advance motion capture, the thing is basic stuff like office and email/browsing is done by the phone more easily.
my 15 y/o brother is literally forced to use an iPad in school for everyday notetaking and homework and everything💀
they don't even use physical calculators anymore, it's all on the iPad as well
This guy is going to use all the Tablets to make the popular lol
What about 2-in-1s?
I agree, desktops and laptops are not going anywhere
dont care about the market share, i love linux and woudnt want to use something else
If LINUX reaches a 7-8% market share, at that point Adobe, Autodesk, and other major software companies will have no choice but to develop their programs for the penguin; and perhaps major hardware manufacturers (Acer, Toshiba, HP...) will start offering machines with Linux pre-installed.
The biggest limitation for the spread of Linux on desktops is the fact that manufacturers offer machines with Windows pre-installed: If you were a typical consumer and were offered to buy, for example, a machine for $1000 with Windows and the exact same machine for $850 with Linux, knowing that you would still have all the software you need, which one would you choose?
I mean i would choose linux for lets say there was a laptop for 500bucks with linux or 500 bucks for windows i would choose linux
@@volkano6991 because maybe you are already a Linux user, but 95% of the people are not , they only know Windows
It would depend on which was more user friendly and easier to use, I'm not paying $1000 for a computer I have to take a class on how to use.
They would choose the 1000 dollar windows machine because it's more familiar. In a third world country they would buy the 850 dollar machine take it to a repair shop to install windows on it for 20 dollars
Kent thinks the future of computing is tablets when the tablet market is shrinking. Talking about a 17% decline year over year for tablets. He talks about Mac, but Mac has also reported a 34% decline year over year from 2023. Technically Linux already beat Mac but on Steam. Mac did grow 1% in Q1 and now 2% in Q2, but that's from the massive 34% decline in 2023. Also, what Mac software? You think people just run Photoshop and Premier all day? After Mac went ARM you see 50% of the software ported to ARM, with the other 50% either emulated or not working at all. Statcounter isn't 100% accurate, but it does represent internet usage. The main driving force of Linux's adoption is gaming. It's the reason why Bill Gates was shown in Doom, because at some point more people installed Doom than Windows 95. It's the reason why Mac has been in decline, because ARM minus 32-bit compatibility means gaming on Mac sucks. Something like 1/3 of the world plays video games, which is a lot more than people who use Photoshop and Adobe Premier. You still have Davinci Resolve on Linux, which works just fine as long as you don't need AAC. You have Reaper on Linux as well. The one thing you don't have is a good alternative to Photoshop. That and Fusion 360, because I can't use anything else but Fusion 360. Photoshop and Fusion 360 do work through Wine, but not well. If Ubuntu screws up then we have dozens of alternatives. Some would say Ubuntu has already screwed up, but whatever. This is not like Windows or MacOS where if they screw up you may leave that ecosystem entirely. If Ubuntu screws up you can go Debian or OpenSuse, or any number of distros that exist. Linux Mint already has a Debian version, just for this reason because you never know if Ubuntu will screw up. At 4%, GNU/Linux is about 1/4 the market share of MacOS. Let that sink in.
also more addition to this point, linux's growth is exponential so should be seeing more growth, and i predect it will double in 4 years tho that is a wild guess
@@forest6008 recently Linux was reported to have climbed to 4.45%, according to statecounter. MacOS is still bellow 15% market share. Linux may eventually catch up to MacOS in market share.
That reflects a general idea of success in IT: 5% of technology and 95% of marketing.
Idk about Linux being behind at all. I game on linux and because of Steam/Proton, it's plug and play. Some of the kernel level anti-cheats don't support Linux, but that's the fault of the devs for the anti-cheat software, not Linux. The popularity of these handhelds is probably making that different though.
it's not the dev's fault not for supporting linux. They will if it make sense for them.
So get linux to make sense for them and they will. so the ball is all in the linux worlds hands so to speak, software/game companies goes where the money it!
@@KentsTechWorld You are right, it is actually the users fault that they still accepting things like Kernel Level Anti-Cheat, accepting Ads in their OS or the security and usability mess that Windows 11 is.
Just because Toyota Corolla works for most average users it doesn't mean its the technological highpoint in the car industry either. This is the same for Windows.
Windows is still actually at Vista level of tech, so that everything we type on Windows 10/11 has by large been done 20 years ago (Vista bootloader, NTFS filesystem and butload of kernel arch too as it's modular since from Vista). It can't even support high CPU core counts for programs since in 2006 they didn't think we would have more than 64 threads on a desktop CPU.
Yeah the UI, DirectX and even kernel probably has had improvement there and there, but overall the tech is ancient on Windows under the hood. Unlike where Linux actually gets developed from every point. Hell Windows UI stuff has actually taken a lot of stuff from Linux since Win10 was released, so in hindsight it's actually Windows has been behind a lot. It's just that the vendor support isn't there...
@@Kankipappa this, 1000%. I’m so tired of hearing how “behind” Linux is when everything on Linux not only looks more modern, but is more modern. It’s not Linux’s fault that people write software for windows, but the FOSS world sure knows how to make it work with WINE/Proton. I’m studying cybersecurity, so I have windows 11 VMs and stuff to test out malware and it’s just insane how clunky it is and how old it looks. Whenever I look at my KDE, or even a GNOME desktop, it just feels and looks like it belongs in 2024.
Iam sure Bobs and Sues are gonna use tablets and phones to rawdog their documents and their spreadsheets and their powerpoint presentations. Your prediction is 100% correct and valid
Yeah, I love typing my Documents out on a Tablet and Phone? NOT!!!😄
With Win11 shenanigans more and more people are switching to Linux, me including. I still run Win11 from a usb, on a laptop that came with Win11 but I converted it to Linux. And when Win10 loses support, my main PC will also become Linux, running Win11 only from that little smart fast usb. I won't need more. The stats are just approximate, many people having dual systems and switching between OSs on regular basis. The best ad for Linux is Win11 itself. Whatever the figures of market share, the truth is people are waking up to re-evaluating their privacy and security. The more Linux users, the more the developers will start tailoring their software for Linux users, too. It will have a positive feedback loop effect. It is about the time to have some viable alternative. And I am impatiently waiting for the Ladybird browser, what it will have to offer when complete.
Add creatives to the desktop user bunch-people who need to edit photos and videos professionally and design graphics and UIs. I couldn't imagine doing this without a powerful desktop computer with big screen and precision of mouse and keyboard.
Well Kent, if in one year you go from 3.1 to 4.4, in 10 years you will reach much more than 10% (because geometric increase). You don't know about numbers.
sure i don't ;)
i am sorry for making a fast on the spot statement, and not sit down and stop the video to do the math right lol.
The point is still the same, There will be no desktop computing in 10 years as we know it, it will be tablets and phones. so if it would be 10% or 20% is not important lol
If you want to counter point my argument, do it in a way that make sense and that is about the video and not bad math lol
@@KentsTechWorld i'm a bit confused by this point. like, sure, mobile devices have grown a lot, and they will continue to do so, but the data you showed implied that it has somwhat stabilised. has the market share for those devices not reached more less the use cases it can reliably replace, in your opinion?
The largest share of the market is not made of people tha need a computer. They want a media device. This is the shifting market share. They don't have HPC games running, or big data sets. They don't have media tools. They don't need fast and dependable input. The want a hassle free media device, and Win/Mac/Lin isn't that. You can discout thoae people because they would use a 1998 Nokia if it did YT/Netflix. These people infiltrated the stats by purchase, not intention or need. Keep this in mind when gathering/diseminating stats.
They basically tend to misrepresent it by showing only desktop market share in which case it is over 4%. For overall market share across any type of device, it is only 1%.
because desktop market share is what their users care about, being desktop users. I suspect it's only "1% across any type of device" when you arbitrarily exclude all non-consumer hardware given that linux has an 80% market share across public facing servers. Which means you're doing the same thing just with a different category. This stat is also reliant on excluding android as "linux" which some people would also disagree with. Windows is at like 25% across "all systems", if people are saying "linux is at 4% whilst microsoft is down to 25%" then there's an issue.
People who care about the desktop linux experience primarily care about desktop market share because that is what is going to affect support for products they want to use.
@@Person01234 Well said. I'm glad the market share is growing in any case.
There are misconceptions everywhere. Tablets and handsets are more powerful at the mid-range than they use to be, so people on iOS and Android can do _much_ of the same workflow as in Windows. People want to discount Android for market data, but Android compatibility is a couple steps away from _Linux_ compatibility. (That, and it can be emulated with Genymotion.) And Microsoft is shooting themselves at both of their feet.
Be honest with yourself here; If to someone who dislikes being advertised-to a whole bunch is presented with Windows as the ad-riddled dystopia Microsoft is slowly making it become, and Linux is presented as the quiet park filled with natural diversity which leaves such people to themselves, what option would they pick for general compute?
I'm using Linux, habitually. And if something doesn't work the way I want it to, I seek alternatives. Windows hasn't been working the way I want it to, so I use the alternative for my systems. If software publishers doesn't want to respect this, they can join my pile or software never worth considering, and I'd hope people that give a damn about their mental clarity would follow suit.
The average soccer mom doesn't game, she barely does productivity stuff on her work computer, and is going to mostly either be streaming something, online shopping, or surfing social media. Phones and tablets may not replace the desktop for gaming and productivity work, but most people don't need it for those things. A large portion of the market do little of either. Those are the people who are now freed from the immobile desktop.
still though its quite a jump no matter how you spin it.
those linux market share increase is literally just steam decks and old pc lol
Steam Deck is not "desktop". I'm also not sure why it would only be old desktops, a few years ago I fully switched to Linux (had windows for home usage before), definitely not using old hardware.
Still, 1% of market share represents millions of computers. Linux historically never represented such fluctuations, so your comparison with Windows may be wrong. In the end we just don't know, Linux on desktop hasn't clicked yet. It might never do. But opportunities are there
what you say could be said for windows, macOS and FreeBSD, beside the "it has not clicked yet".
Again we can't assume or guess, we have to deal with what we have of numbers, no matter how not so true or what not they may be.
And i am using the same stats and site linux people are. so if this is not right, their videos are not right either
1% spread along how many distros? and within each distro how many desktops? They need to focus on just a few of the best distros and get software support for them. People use applications and not the OS which they could care less apart - if you boot a PS4 as long as the OS does what it should people only care about the game they are playing.
@@ericwalker8381 most people use Ubuntu
I really don't care about your argument. Everything is in the cloud today. Windows is not a cash cow for MS anymore. I thought this argument was something from ten years ago. I don't know what your purpose is. We don't know what the future of operating systems will be in the future. You are quite sure. I'm not. Glad you are so sure. Shareholders are looking at more important issues.
why watch, why comment of you don't care.
This tell me you do!!
Cloud? You mean servers owned by large American corporations to track and profile you? Any idea how cheap storage is these days? No thanks - I'll keep my files and programs on my own machines, which both run Linux Mint.
Once there is a Linux version that the user doesn't have to use the terminal, then it will do much better. 99% of users of Windows users don't want to use terminal commands. GUI for everything is needed to make it easy for the masses. I don't need it, but most do.
Agree. As soon i got my s24 Ultra i thought about buying a docking station to plug my phone to my monitor and use Dex. The only thing that's really stopping me is gaming but i can use Parsec to play my games or use Nvidia GeForce Now
First argument is already wrong. I hear that in ~5 yars desktops will be replaced by phones and tablets since 2010. What actually happened - most people got smartphones, some got tablets, some people moved to laptops, but most desktop users stayed on desktop. Many of them also have laptops and tablets in addition to desktop, but not to replaces it.
PC is not dying, market just mature and will not grow fast. Only space able to grow fast is enthusiast luxuries, like watercooling, top-tier GPUs, etc. and even they will be capped by inflation.
Also linear extrapolation is useless, we basically don't have any information to extrapolate. Only thing we can say for sure, combination on MS mishandling of customer relations with win11 and valve actions with steamOS and steamDeck made linux meaningfully more attractive platform. MS might get their shit together and make real improvements to windows, linux growth might be blocked by assumptions made by most mainstream distributions that they are for tablets and lot of other staff, including factors like adobe attempt at losing market dominance, which also might improve linux chances.
Yeah, phones are already the dominant (by some magnitude) personal computing device. Desktops and laptops are useful and not dying, but they're a basically flat market. Moves in OS share are basically random noise. As a 30 year Linux desktop user, I would love to see Linux doing better but I know all the problems holding it back and they're deeply systemic and almost completely unrelated to anything a Linux developer could reasonably be expected to address. So it's a moot point.
@@djsmeguk I'm moving to linux right now. Which actual problem is systemic for it?
Only severe issue I see is an extraordinaire lack of UI specialist, so UI either is as bad as alternatives (macos, windows) or even slightly worse, but it's not something that impossible to fix.
Other one is a complicated architecture of graphical servers and their interaction with DEs, but it seems average uses just don't care, so far as their app able to launch and windows can be moved around.
anyone that can use a desktop or laptop wants to use it but phones are portable and cheaper. before i had a smart phone i would just spend way less time online because i could only use the internet at my desk .and if you live in a place like dr Congo this is your only option
So, for Linux to take more market share, programs like WINE and Proton (but not just for games) need to fill in the gaps by just translating Windows/Mac OS API calls to Linux API calls so Linux can have all the programs? I'm not sure what you mean by creature comforts that the other OSes have, I only use Linux.
Your "best case scenario" of each OS having 1/3 of the market share would be my dream, I want competition within the desktop market shares, the crap Microsoft was doing when I left was just so annoying, ads in the OS, forced telemetry, constant lying about what the computer is doing (you don't need to take 30 seconds set my account after the OS is installed, there should be nothing to set up), and having to accept their EULA-roofieing and rapist mentality. It would be a bad thing if there was only Linux and everyone had to use it as there would be nothing to encourage innovation.
I personally think you can break down the unkown into the same percentages as the known. The majority being windows, then Mac, the Linux.
I believe that from 2025 onwards we'll be able to see better usage behavior. Windows 11 was a failure (recently it was only on 30% of computers) and next year Windows 10 support ends and many people don't have the option of migrating to 11 due to hardware limitations (like me, who has a fourth generation intel).
Most people don't have any limitations when it comes to using Linux, which is currently a summary of using Adobe. It's a question of knowing how to boot from a USB stick and how to handle partitions.
Windows has been copying Linux for a while now: the interface, tiling manager, toolbar, package manager and terminal. And the main point is that Windows is technically inferior in advanced features for advanced users, programmers and system administrators etc. Windows also consumes the machine's resources and spies on users.
I mean people usually have more than 1 device. I have a phone, laptop, desktop, tablet, smartwatch. I use them for different things and I run a different operating systems too. My wife has a bunch of different devices and I have some non-techy friends who even have both android and iPhones because they have too much money lol so in my opinion I don’t see tablets and phones taking over but adding too laptops and desktops
So GNOME supporting phone and tablet form factor might help Linux in the long run after all.
not really, gnome is not being used on tablet's or phones, or it's almost not being used. So it have not helped at all.
You could make a debate that KDE have done something as it's on the steam deck.
@@KentsTechWorld The majority of Steam Deck users never interacts with the KDE desktop. Most people only use the gamescope session with big picture mode because the only thing you would need to switch to the desktop for are flatpaks. But there are decky plugins to manage them from within that game console like session.
Also KDE is not designed for touch input at all. You could argue that you can configure it to somewhat work and there is Plasma mobile as side project. But these are big implications.
At the same time most mobile Linux distributions use Phosh which is based on GNOME efforts. You can pretty much run all major GNOME applications via touch input on a tablet or phone. Most GNOME circle apps work properly. There are efforts to run the actual GNOME shell on phone form factor and from my experience the thing holding it back most is the touchscreen keyboard which isn't as good as squeekboard yet.
But besides that it's already possible to run GNOME on a tablet without major issues. You can even have more usability than with Android or iPadOS because you are not limited to some locked-down store front. It's definitely more future-proof than any Windows tablets I've seen.
So for modern era were most people drop desktop computers, you can still run Linux with such efforts on your phone or tablet, keeping the full range of possibilities you would have on a desktop computer. Also no matter the form factor, you can run the same interface across all your devices, making it extremely intuitive to use, once familiar. I simply don't need to learn two or three different operating systems with their own tweaks and quirks - just one.
The interesting thing I see is that every year Windows moves closer to a desktop/tablet hybrid. With all of the 2 in 1's, it's their main reason for moving the start menu to the middle for touch screens. Power desktop users hate the direction Windows is going, meanwhile people who are more mobile computing don't notice. Linux really needs to get going on a tablet os.
linux doesn't "really need to get going on a tablet OS", you said it youself that power desktop users hate the direction windows is going, these people are the target
"Will Linux ever beat macOS?" Nooooo. April fools day, who knows 🙂.
My hope since "decades" is "lower than 1%". No need for this huge amount of "where do I have to click?" people, like on Windows. Makes it hard to find anything with a search engine. The results are always polluted with questions and answers like "does not work, reinstall Linux".
I dunno with the way apple is going its a strong possibility., apple outside of the iphone/ipad has been really struggling for a while and the move to apple silicon has not panned out as well as they hoped due to lack of compatibility with games.
the linux growth curve is a very slow exponential curve, and windows has steadily been losing market share and macos has not been taking all of it so i dont see why ur predicing 17 years for it, you are not looking at the data in a very through way
i do. Linux don't move, desktops(win, mac's) are falling as a rock. Handhelds are taking over.
What that means is when 99% of the world use handhelds, linux would still be the smallest % of the rest that still use desktops. So let's say at that point only 10% of user use dekstops, well then linux would more than likely only have 5% of that, macOS 25% and windows 70%. that would make the linux consumer OS base under 1% if you combine all the markets!!
Think about the market share as a stock. Linux is stable but not really moving, windows is at the moment a really bad investment, macOS is okay but could go both ways.
So if you invest in linux you will get no return worth while, but you will not lose much either.
if you invest in Windows, you are gambling that it may turn around, but you more than likely are losing.
If you invest in macOS there is a high change of making money or keeping the once you have.
If you want a somewhat predictable return you invest in handhelds!
I am the one being the most fair to all OS's here. the fact is that you don't like what you see, so you trying to make it seam less "bad". 'The fact is that no one really care about Linux as a desktop.
@@KentsTechWorld sure but mobile growth has slowed down significantly, and ipads arent doing to great either so i really dont know about that, and for companies, linux is basically the perfect sollution especially something like nixos
And how is your market share measured. I use Linux, an Android phone and sometimes I use Windows for compatibility.
So that makes me part of all three.
But to be honest, I love Linux as a geek. If I want to use a program, I run it on the OS it is designed for.
And yes I agree with you, take the Linux youtubers with a grain of salt.....(a very small grain :)
i use the same stats(site) linux youtubers use. so this data is taking from the same place they just don
t show it to you
'The year of the Linux desktop!'
lol
Desktops are going to be around for a long time and are not going to disappear any time soon. Too many things that are done on a desktop that are extremely difficult if not impossible to do on a tablet. Laptops will eventually out number desktops, but desktops are still going to be in use for many years to come. As more people become pissed off with Microsoft's BS the number of Linux users will keep rising. Eventually it will reach a point where it will begin to snowball and the rate of people switching to Linux will increase dramatically, it will happen eventually.
what you can do on a PC you can do on a tablet, all it take is the software.
people do dev work, media work like editing, office work, gaming, consuming and so on, all from a tablet. Go look up channels that live on tablets only.
PC still are better at some of those things, but that is only going to be like that for a little while..
Most people have no idea what tablet's really can do as they only use it as a media machine, but with dex and stage manager etc. it's now a full desktop/laptop replacement
@@KentsTechWorld I'm sure a lot of people feel that way and I can appreciate that, but for me I am not nearly as productive on a tablet as I am on a full sized system. I love my tablet to, great fun to play games on. I just can't get any serious work done on that.
As far as PC's fading away, I have been hearing that for at least 20 years. Ever since the first gaming consoles came out people have been saying that and it has not even been close to happening. PC's will be with us for many more years to come.
10-15 years behind, Uh huh. depending on how you might consider it since UNIX and Linux generally does run the infrastructure of the internet, Its far more ahead in that respect, and 2 is also ahead in ways on desktop compared to windows specifically for the true nerds, with CLI use, and aspects of gui too. But one must know how to set up, and either develop or build from source code. That has never been for me easy on Windows, but I'm biased towards POSIX standard, and that's the other advantage.
IDK about the way you divided the "unknown" percent, I think we should have taken the %s we know and "morph" that into 100% and re-calculate what each groups % is then divide the 7.14% by the new %s of each (i.e. Windows gets 72%-ish, Mac gets 14.92%-ish, Linux gets 4.45%-ish, etc) though I doubt people on Mac do very much to protect their privacy, or nearly as much as those on either Window or Linux.
Two things. These kinds of stats are *very* flawed; however, if we take them at face value, Linux's market share is bound to go back down once school has started and people need to move back to Windows.
i highly doubt people would suddenly jump to Linux a month before school, it's quite counter-productive tbh.
The noise from month to month is rather irrelevant, especially at this small of percentages and this type of data. So trying to extrapolate anything from this month's growth (or fall) is a fool's errand.
When support for Windows 10 ends people will have the choice to throw away their computers or convert to Linux. For users, it's easy to convert to eg Mint - simple to use and fast
nope they will stick using windows, if not most will go to mac's as that gives them more of the software they want and need, the small rest will go Linux
They will wait until the last minute then upgrade the PC or buy a new one if it's older then 4 year .. it's pretty typical.
As TPM 2.0 support was mandatory in all systems sold since July 2018 (with Win 10 pre-installed) it only effects pre-ZEN AMD and pre-Gen 5 Intel (and desktops can add a TPM module).
Since most people upgrade a laptop every 3-5 years by the time support ends and they get bugged to upgrade to Windows 11, 7.5 years will have passed meaning most PC will meet the requirements except for some cheap-a**es.
Win11 was released Oct 2021 4 years will have passed (by the time Windows free support ends) and as the upgrade cycle is 3-5 years (laptops) what will happen:
- is that the user has already bought a new device with Windows 11 pre-installed (again the laptop upgrade cycle is 3 to 5 years), or
- they were planning to buy one anyways and will shortly before October 2025, or
- they will finally run the update for the free Win 11 upgrade.
@@ericwalker8381 It's a pity though - 250 million computers going to landfill. :( My computer is 10 years old and runs Linux Mint perfectly - and fast.
@@michaelpayne4540 Mostly its pre-Zen (AMD) and pre-gen 5 Intel. Most motherboards 2016 have a TMP connector with desktops, every system 2018 onwards sold with Win 10 pre-stalled has TPM 2.0.
Old equipment basically has outdated micro-code, obsolete ports, and are very power inefficient. They act very much like space-heaters (which might be ok for some in winter if they use electric baseboard heating). For example my 2nd gen Sandy Bridge laptop uses more power then my 5580H mini PC, the former has a Passmark benchmark about 1,240 and the latter a score of 22,000 - same electrical power used (not to mention the latter has Gen 2 ports as well, updated CODECs).
Updating the OS does not and never will update the hardware - the CODECs are out of date, 42nm fabs does not become 4nm fabs, the support chips and micro-architecture doesn't upgrade nor do the ports. It's just old, obsolete equipment with a different OS.
If people want to use Linux or whatever OS there's a point whereby it doesn't make sense to use old, obsolete equipment especially if their electrical bills are going up.
02:40 I don't get how Linux is behind Windows or MacOS on the desktop. Maybe you can explain that because I don't see how this is true, not for the average user and especially not from a developer standpoint. Try to mount a keybased authentificated ssh connection into a directory in your home folder so you can edit remote files with all your local editors and programs. Good luck with that. I do that everyday on every Linux system for over 20 years now.
Meanwhile Windows can't even make their UI consistent and instead of fixing it I have to explain people how to revert their right click menus to an actual usable state. I tried Windows 11 for 6 months and for me it is a terrible mess. Not even talking about the constant annoyances with ads, bloatware, virus protection, Microsoft forcing you into using their stuff and cloud and unwanted restarts (that was actually the worst).
Now add in the server market.
the server market means nothing for the desktop.
unless everyone is going to run a server at home and not a desktop OS lmao
Nice! its at 4.55% now :3
so nothing then lol
@@KentsTechWorld mmmmmmmmmmm.. yes.
It is probably true that the numbers are inflated.
However does it really matter?
FOSS is not declining in popularity..
It is steadily improving and also it's quality is geting better.
CachyOS
NixOS
SerpentOS
VanilaOS
All quite modern.
There is some things that really needs improvement thou.
Like HDR support for monitors.
It is in motion to become really good though.
Maybe be more positive?
Less aggressive?
👾💨
💯🔥
🌱🌱🌱🌱🌱
Btw, the next big thing is the mobile Windows device. Think ROG on a massive scale, with Windows as its operating system. The next generation is going to embrace these devices, and Android and iOS will be for old people.
windows is ass it will never come to phone and will never replace android or ios
@@n-tertainmentx-tended4760 windows mobile is already dead for like 10 years lol
@@PranjayVarshney It won't be Windows mobile as we remember it. Portable pc's will be the next growth sector in the tech industry. You can already communicate with computers, and people don't really make calls with their phones anymore. But you can play AAA games on pc, so all that needs to happen is for small-factor pc's to get cheaper, and then it will be over for Android and iOS.
@@n-tertainmentx-tended4760 gaming is not the only thing that people do. And I don't know in which world you are living in but people definitely make calls with their phones.
@@PranjayVarshney Kids don't make calls, but regardless, you can make calls with some apps like Whatsapp. My point is, gaming is the biggest reason computers are still relevant, otherwise Windows wouldn't be as relevant.
Linux is only slightly better than Mac, and only because you can run more games. Windows is like that girl you take for granted. You think you can do better...but you can't.
Tbh any beginner linux distro like Ubuntu or mint is better than windows for normal daily computer use. The only downside for linux is gaming.
@@PranjayVarshney Nah, try doing proper video editing (I'm a content creator). Da Vinci Resolve is all you have and I don't like it all that much. On Windows I can use free software like Capcut without any issues. And all of the open-source software works just fine as well. So there's no need for Linux - not in my opinion.
@@PranjayVarshney Better is subjective, both my windows and Linux systems perform simple tasks equally as easily.
@@n-tertainmentx-tended4760 if you read my comment I said normal daily use. Video editing is a specific task for which you need specific tools. Obviously mac or windows is far superior when it comes to video editing.
@@bigbay1159 windows has very specific hardware requirements, doesn't run well on old hardware and eats up a lot of storage for no good reason. That's why I believe that for normal daily tasks like browsing the web, watching some videos, some word processing etc, linux is a much better choice.
Lol I love your perspective, you think a lot like me, but your older and your autistic predictions are more experienced then mine lol, I hope your wrong but lol you're most likely right